Transcription
Yeah. Hey. Hey. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and today I've got a little bit of a mixed bag for you guys. A little bit of everything sprinkled in here and then we'll take a look at some charts before we head into the weekend. And of course tomorrow we'll come back and do the weekend's deep dive. As always, we got some new inflation data to look at tomorrow if nothing else.
The Bank of England is going to scale back plans for strict stable coin rules following crypto industry pressure. And this comes at a time when the King of England has said that his ministers will proceed with an introduction of a digital ID. So, pretty wild times to be alive, if I do say so myself.
Elsewhere, Kevin Walsh is going to be the new Fed chair as of tomorrow, and the bond market is giving the poor guy a heartfelt welcome. So, tell that to the bond market is well and truly in full force here, right? You can see that as the yields creep up, we see no sign of rate cuts anywhere remotely in sight. And of course, the inverse is true, right? When the yields go down, we tend to see rate cuts. But whilst this is definitely a short-term wobble in my opinion, and whilst this is definitely a little bit further north than I was expecting to see them, I still think that once we get rid of PAL and bring in Walsh, we'll probably start to see some rate cut slashes in the not too distant future.
Okay. And ultimately, I don't think it's bullish. I think the market will short-term perceive that as bullish, but I think Pal's kind of done what it was supposed to do, right? And either I'm going to be right on this or the whole thing will be invalidated. In either case, I don't think it matters too much. I think we'll just keep trading the charts as always. But I'm pretty confident we will see these rates move lower and this is the final capitulative move in the bond market as we speak. And of course if this really is a capitulative move in the bond market and we're about to see therefore a new bond ball, it kind of speaks perhaps I would suggest to this parabolic S&P move right coming to a grand finale here as we approach those four-year lows late this year. So again I say super wild times to be alive.
At the moment the interest rate futures now see a base case for the next Fed move to be a rate hike. That's pretty insane. I will say that that would be completely unprecedented to have the onset of a cutting cycle followed by a pause for many months followed by more cuts followed by another pause followed by hikes. Again, that would be pretty unique if it were to happen. It's also true that right now the Fed cutting interest rates before July 27 is a mere 1% probability according to the interest rate future odds. So, I know a lot of people like to say, well, this is absolutely coming and they may be right. I am still in the camp of people that says I don't think this is likely. I don't think we're going to see hikes here. I could be wrong for sure. I'm open to being wrong as always, but I really don't think we're going to see hikes. I think we are just setting the stage here for a massive reversal in the bond market, which means bonds to Valhalla, and it also means yields towards zero. So, we'll see if that turns out to be right.
Ultimately, I don't think it matters in terms of the cycles that we trade on things like the S&P, gold, and and Bitcoin at all. I'm still pretty confident that the new Fed chair is going to step in here and we're going to see rates rapidly cut from here on out. I know a lot of people say, "Well, isn't he secretly a hawk?" Listen, I'm not going to lie. I don't know. I have no real clue. Okay? I just look at the chess pieces being moved around and fit that into my framework, which we'll cover again on the weekend's deep dive, and I say that unless he shows up and starts hiking rates, then I'm going to continue to be correct on this idea. If of course he turns up and starts hiking rates, then I will just say, "Okay, I was completely wrong about that." Okay. and we'll move on to a new idea. But I stand with it for now at least.
In other news, right, enjoy the bubble from CNBC. And I do love how we're all like, "Yeah, it's a bubble, but who cares, right?" And as crazy as that sounds, you know, what are you going to do? Try to short this thing prematurely? Are you going to try to say, "Well, no, I just don't want to be involved in the historic vertical moment that's going on in the stocks." This is really the only acceptable attitude to have, right? Yes, it looks like a bubble and it certainly has all the familiar characteristics, symptoms and hallmarks of a bubble, but to try to stand in front of it or pick a top or short the top seems like a pretty futile stance to take at the moment. So, I know it doesn't make sense, okay? But remember, markets can remain irrational for longer than anyone can remain solvent. So, it's just a wild time, right? We've been saying wild times to be alive and it only seems to be getting more and more wild. It's one of these things you just have to apply the edge, right? You just have to trade the cycles, put the stop there, keep the risk managed, and then you're in. If it works out and goes to new highs, and if you pay the stop, well, you're wrong in a much smaller way than you are potentially going to be if you're right, which at the end of the day, that's all trading is.
Somebody tagged me in this, and I thought this was fascinating. This is the 100-year blueprint for the S&P. And you can see we have these approximate 25-ish year bull cycles followed by a loss decade. If true, then there's still a lot of room to run here before we do enter that loss decade. People that follow my channel have known for a long time. I think we're roughly in this neighborhood here and this is what we're going to end up doing. So, I've been calling for something like this essentially and the loss decade to happen whenever we see the peak for this current cycle. But maybe I'm wrong about that and we got something more like this to occur, right? Where we overrun for a lot longer and then the lost decade occurs, I don't know, the other side of this decade, maybe from 2030 onwards. Time will tell about that. It does look like if you look at the crest, the peak of the sine wave here, okay, we typically right translate significantly past the midpoint of the sine wave. Okay, in all other instances, you can see this is significantly past here, right? And here it's not quite as much, is it? Kind of looks like there might be some space to go here, but we could of course top sooner by going more vertical. So maybe that's another idea as well.
Over in the world of Bitcoin, sailors just bought another billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and Bitcoin is almost back to its fair value. So, if this is just a relief rally, it's already stronger than relief rallies in previous bare markets. Now, that is of course when we're talking about this fair value metric, right? We're almost back here, which typically we don't get back to that line in prior bare markets. With that said, I do think it's important to point out that the low to high here was 46% in this bare market rally. And as of right now, we're about 35%. Okay, so in percentage terms, this is not as strong as this counter trend bounce here was. And I would also point out fair value. Okay, if we look here, we turned down on all of these fair value/overbought oversold bands, right? We turned down for a while. But in prior bare markets, once they turned down, it stayed down for a while, then took a couple of months to flatten out and then went into a new bull market. Same here, right? Once it turns down, it stays down for quite some time before then turning back up again. And at the moment it really hasn't turned down for very long at all at the hard right edge. Okay, so I also wanted to grab the magnifying glass here and point out that maybe these will continue lower for a while longer. We do get that rejection and then ultimately find a lower low and then it would just be normal and to be expected four-year cycle stuff. But you can see people saying it really shows how every cycle is completely different. I'm not sure they are really. So far this looks exactly like all the prior other four-year cycles. It's topped month 35. Okay, it's heading for that four-year cycle low. Even this rally, although people are saying it looks different or it feels different or it's gone further, it really hasn't. Like I said, this one here is 46% and this one is less than that. It's about 35 at the moment. It will take quite a few months for this to even if that is the low at 60k, it will take quite a few months for this thing to turn back up and start to build a new bull market out of here. But I still think we're going to find out pretty soon. I'll show you when we get to the daily cycles. We are due to top like either well I would say imminently, right? Either the end of this week or early next week and then have a decline to a daily cycle low. We'll talk about the implications of where that low forms again in a minute, but I'm still in the camp of people that says I would love to see this, right? Don't get me wrong. I'd love to see that, but I just don't think we're going to get it, unfortunately. I think we still are yet to see the lows.
Meanwhile, silver, are we sending this thing to 200? And I said 150 would be great for me. Let's see what happens, right? And 200 seems pretty insane, but who knows? I think we're right in the middle of a half cycle low shakeout at the moment, although gold's daily cycle is in jeopardy of failing. So, we'll talk about that in just a minute. This was my base case. Okay, it still is until we get failed daily cycles.
As for the stocks, right, we continue to push and we know we got a daily cycle low shakeout coming towards the end of May. So, we'll see what happens there. Bitcoin is nice and simple and straightforward, too, right? We know that there is a cycle low due the same time as the stocks at the end of May. We'll see if we get a higher low up here, right? So, we get low and then another higher low and then another higher low. This would kind of make me think that there's more strength in the market than I originally anticipated. And if we get another shakeout like I'm expecting, which is a nasty and quick plunge down towards 60K, okay? And I don't care if it's slightly above 60 or at 60 or slightly below. To me, it's all the same thing. But if we get a low in that neighborhood, then I would suggest that everyone that's saying the bottom was in at 60K is wrong and we will do something more like this into a standard four-year cycle low shape. I think it's also funny that when we get down there, most people are going to have an excuse as to why they don't want to buy it. Right now, I think the consensus attitude is, "Oh, you really think you're just going to be able to buy in October?" Okay. And I think actually by the time we get there, the attitude is going to be very different. I think people's consensus attitude down here is going to be, "Yeah, right. I'm not buying that. Oh, you're a fool for buying this low." So, we'll see if that comes to fruition or not. But the read is pretty clear short-term. Okay, we know we got a cycle low due at the end of May. And then depending on how far down that low forms, we'll be able to deduce what comes next thereafter.
And for precious metals, it looks like we are in jeopardy here. We're having some sort of like liquidation event by the look of it. It looks like we're in jeopardy of failing the daily cycle on gold, which means going to start to nail profits down if those levels are hit. Silver is nearly 8% down on the day. But I will say this, this is right in the middle of the half cycle low window. Okay, this is day 12 today. And remember about 24 on average for a daily cycle. So if this thing V reverses out of this low in the coming couple of days, coming couple of sessions that is, then all is right with the world. Okay, but I can't at this stage be super relaxed about this because it looks like just an ABC back. Okay, so we'll see what happens here. As I said, it is right in the middle of a half cycle low window. And if that's true, then what we'll need to see is us impulse to new highs again pretty shortly. So we'll find out in a couple of days. But to be honest, we can't really lose at this point, right? we lock in so many gains from the miners and other things like that and we've got our hard invalidation levels. So, we know where to exit the trade and nail down the gains from the lows from back here if the worst should happen. And then we'll have massive amounts of cash ready for the four-year lows and whatever comes thereafter.
Other than that, what else is there to say really? Small caps are still pretty much just about clinging to support for now. I got out of the semiconductor position, so we'll see what happens from there. We got one or two other positions like Wolf here. We'll see what happens with that as well. Generally speaking, I think there's not a great deal happening today. So, we'll see how the weekly closes look, right? We'll see if silver can show the makings of a reversal out of this half cycle low today or not. And other than that, I hope you'll come back tomorrow for the weekend's deep dive. We're wishing you all a fantastic weekend. If you want to get started with all things cycles, click here in about 10 seconds time. And other than that, God bless. Cheers. Bye.
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