Transcription
Hello everyone. Welcome to Baldu Guy Money. And I'm coming to you all here from my hotel room in Osaka, Japan. And I've been getting plenty of messages from viewers asking me about central banks like Turkey, which are selling their gold to buy their local currency, asking me if this may signal the end of central bank gold buying, and as a consequence, the end of the golden silver bull market.
Now, what's important to understand here is that Turkey is selling and often swapping gold with the intent of buying it back later to buy its local currency, the Turkish lera. And they're doing that to create demand for the currency and drive the price or value up relative to the US dollar and relative to oil to prevent the currency and the economy from completely collapsing in what one may call a mirror image scenario of what we saw in 2008 when large private US banks were running out of money and facing bankruptcy as a consequence of bad mortgage loans. During which time in cooperation with bullion banks they raised money to avoid bankruptcy by selling gold and silver which led to a major price correction that you see on the screen right here.
That said, in 2026, this action that has many gold and silver stackers concerned is clearly telling us two things.
Number one, that gold, which is an appreciating asset, meaning it goes up in value over time, as opposed to the US dollar, which goes down in value over time, is liquid enough or easy enough to sell in times of need to support a local currency that it not only acts as a store of value for nations, but also as a store of liquidity in times of need. Which in layman's terms just means that despite many people saying gold can't replace the US dollar as a reserve asset, Turkey is proving that it can, which is strengthening the central bank case for owning gold as a reserve asset. It's not weakening it.
Number two, this action reveals who is in trouble this time around. With private banks like JP Morgan backed up and guaranteed by central banks like the Federal Reserve who are ready to print up paper money to bail them out like we saw in 2023 with the bank term funding program. The real issue isn't those private banks or even so much their private credit problem. Although it is a problem today, in 2026, it's sovereign countries like Turkey and Japan that make up a portion of more than the $100 trillion global sovereign debt market that are the problem. And as a result, they are being forced to sell assets like gold, as in the case of Turkey, to prop up their weakening currencies. But unlike in 2008 when they could print up the money to save the private banks, the ones printing the money or who print the money as a simplified way of looking at it are the ones that are in trouble this time around. The chickens are coming home to roost as we say with the next big step being a major sale of US bonds in US treasuries which has already started by the way with Turkey the same country that has sold some of its gold reportedly dumping more than $20 billion worth of US bonds since the start of the war with Iran, which is more than the $7 billion in gold that they've sold outright, which the media conveniently doesn't talk about at all. And this has the potential to trigger an outright crisis that threatens the stability of every fiat currency around the globe. No real exceptions this time around with the only safe haven being gold and silver, which in my estimates still have a 2009 to 2011 style boom still ahead of them.
So in this video I discussed the situation for gold and silver as well as other commodities like copper and oil with Michael Oliver of momentum structural analysis to discuss what comes next for gold and silver. We also discuss why he thinks I am being too conservative with my price targets especially my $150 to $200 an ounce price target for silver. And we also discuss how people should approach a portfolio right now. If it makes sense to buy oil stocks right now where they are or wait for a pullback and how much of the oil stocks you should hold relative to mining stocks for people like me who have built their stock portfolio in that way.
Now just before we get to the conversation, I want to remind everyone that for me, Summit Metals is the absolute best place to go for gold and silver online. Whether you are a buyer or a seller, you can be sure you will be treated right on both sides of the transaction. You can find them at summitmetals.com. Their prices are great. All products are verified as 100% authentic. No scams, no fakes, and sellers can sell with confidence knowing they're getting a fair price. And if you're new to Summit Metals, please remember to get your 3 ounces of silver at spot limit one per household. And I'll leave the link to this deal in the video description below. And without any further ado, here is my conversation with Mr. Michael Oliver.
I'm here with Mr. Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis. Welcome to the show. Thank you very much for taking the call with me.
>> Thanks, Roger, for inviting me.
>> So, look, uh, before we get into the main bits about what we're talking about today, I wanted to ask you, we just saw a US jobs report come out. 4.3% unemployment, so lower than what the expectations were. And now we're also seeing some escalations in the war with Iran over the weekend. But I'm just curious, considering this stronger than expected jobs report, which was released, by the way, while the market was closed, combined with this escalation potentially with Iran, another escalation. What do you think this is? How do you think this is going to impact markets when they open up on Monday out of curiosity?
Well, we think that, let me put it in perspective. Go back a year and think about the US stock market. It would it had reached the S&P 500 reach just below 6,200 early in the year, January, February. Okay, it then rolled over. We called for a down move at that time and we thought there'd be a bounce point around 4,800. But we didn't know there would be a headline that suddenly surfaces that's fresh and new but negative and that was tariffs. Okay, tariffs had not been on anybody's mind in the entire bull market since 2009. All of a sudden tariffs come out and there's a dark little story. Okay, so people sell and then at the bottom of that sell off in April, Trump comes out and says, "Oh, 90-day pause. Party on again. Market goes up." Okay, it's like a bunch of little puppies chasing cookies. Okay, but it's a transitory headline because if you think about early this year, tariffs were hardly an issue. It wasn't a major focus point anymore. And then suddenly Iran war comes up. Now, we have another on in-your-face sudden piece of news that has nothing really to do in a major way with the long-term context of what has been happening in the markets and under the surface monetarily. I think this transitory headline war news is can be interpreted two ways. Some people think, oh, it's bullish for certain things. Well, oil obviously uh in this case and gold, which it wasn't. Ah, surprised them. But they sold into stocks thinking, "Oh my gosh, this is a big negative." Well, frankly, MSA is negative about the stock market. We think it is in a process of topping a laborious since early last year. This headline, I think, is probably going to be like the tariff headline, meaning yes, it has some importance, but it's likely to be transitory. And then suddenly you're left again with the underlying realities that have to be dealt with, the things that could drive the market down. And I don't remember a market going down with a dark headline signaling the actual top. Usually the dark headline comes oh a year later and suddenly you say, "Oh my gosh, now I understand why it went down." So you ask me about the war. Yes, it has some impact. Um, pardon me for getting long-winded here, but oil for example, oil is was back early this year, late last year in the 55 to 60 zone on WTI crude futures. If you look historically back, that is a cheap cheap level for oil. I mean, it made two peaks in the 140 150 level in the last 10 years. Okay? So being in the 60 level is hardly overdone. We had a technical major breakout signal that occurred in January as price moved up through 63. No war event. February gained some more, no war event. Then suddenly March we have a war event and it it it explodes. Yes, it is positive for oil, but the oil has other things that were driving it, not that headline. And so I think ultimately oil is going higher but it's not going to go higher because of that Iran situation and the hormuz closure likely that will open at some point. Uh oil gold uh oil will go higher for basic fundamental reasons under pricing for example in relation to other assets and so forth. So again the war event I think is h it'll come and it'll go. It's not the main driver.
>> You know, looking into you, I see, you know, that you've been in the markets since 1975. So, you've seen wars, you've seen peace, you've seen bouts of inflation, you've seen oil shock before, you've seen Monica Lewinsky, you you've you've seen it all. Uh my question to you is because it sounds like you're fundamentally bearish on the stock market, but still bullish on commodities, specifically the precious metals. So my question is to you, what's the key indicator that you're looking at that still makes you bullish on precious metals yet bearish on the stock market?
We run momentum studies of all the markets and we don't do it in a normal way with the wet noodle indicators like RSI and MACD and so forth things on your screen. We have a different way of looking at it. We look at momentum structurally. We plot lines like price charts do on price charts except we plot them on momentum and we define structures and quite often momentum in fact almost all the time before a market makes a major trend change a top or a bottom the momentum will have signal that before price tells you the same momentum almost always leads we have been both bearish and bullish on gold over the decades. MSA has been around since ' 92. I was in the future side before then, but 92 our research began. For instance, back in 2011, we turned major bearish on gold. A couple months after it made its peak at 1920, in January of 2012, we got major bearish and stayed bearish through 2016. February, we've been bullish on gold since February 2016. And nothing on our longterm momentum trend analysis says that it's over. In fact, the structures on momentum, if you plot them like you would a price chart, you're not even close to structures that could jeopardize the trend. And almost always when gold or any other major market makes a major turn, it doesn't have to travel a long way in price to get to the point of breakage. It will break it pretty soon after making a top or after making a bottom. In this case, there is no major reason for us to reassess gold or sulfur as being negative. This has been a sharp correction. Now, on the commodity issue, good point. Bloomberg commodity index turned bullish to us last October. Now, the Bloomberg commodity index is a wellbalanced index. It contains energy, oil, grains, cotton, sugar, all kinds of things including monetary metals and base metals. So it's well balanced. It broke out to positive momentum trend last October well before any Iranian war and oil broke out in January before the war. So something was going on in the commodity category that says we're turning up. I argue that probably and this is not we don't impose fundamental analysis but we happen to see it often coincident with our momentum work that simply commodities were underpriced for too long both to their own price history underpriced and underpriced to things like the stock market vastly underpriced and money flows will change you know they they'll move out of a stock market when there's a perception maybe it's too risky Y it moved somewhere else and I think that's begun. This war simply exacerbated the situation a bit got a little too excited too quickly. So that that's what I see. So yes, I do see something good in the commodities.
>> Yeah. So you know I I don't do the exact momentum style analysis. In fact, I would say Mr. Oliver, you're very unique in that style on the market. I'm mostly fundamental paired with technical. And you know two things that I've observed is that we've never topped in a commodities market specifically here. You know my focus is on gold and silver >> before a stock market crash and before the Federal Reserve finished its rate cutting cycle. And I don't think either of those events have happened yet. Now, uh, what I wanted to ask is I said in a recent video and I've probably about for the last three weeks I've been saying we're more at our 2008 moment right now in the precious metals bull market than we are our 2011 moment. Do you think that's an accurate statement?
>> I think that's very accurate, very astute. In fact, most people think that, you know, if you get a major stock market decline, gold and silver go down too. And it's not true. Historically, if you go back and archive the charts over the decades, you'll see that no, one of the prime beneficiaries of any major bearish stock market is the money moves somewhere else and it's it's always gold. Sometimes it's also T-bonds. That looks like a category that may not be alternative this time. So, what does that leave you with? Yeah, I think you're exactly right about that October 2008 event because even then if you go back and look at gold from 2001 when it bottomed around 2001 and two around $260 it was advanced it quadrupled in price up to 2008 got up to a,000 and then in the actually the uh September high and early October high of 2008 it reached back up to about 980. near the high again. And only then did it have the sharp drop that everybody thought was the end of the world. What happened then was yes, the S&P also had a horrible month, but the S&P had already been going down for a full year and a major price decline. And it wasn't until October 2008 that finally you had what you could call a crash because 30 35% drop within a month. Gold at that point frankly needed a correction and it had one coincident with the stock market which has got everybody burned with that memory of oh my gosh if you're right MSA and the stock market's topping that must mean gold is topic. No, first off the stock market is in a laborious top and I frankly don't think it's going to drop anytime soon. And I think you could get an up month this month despite the quote dark news. Uh maybe we'll get some happy news out of Iran and therefore cause a knee-jerk rally in the stock market, which would be typical. Uh much like that tariff 90-day pause caused a rally in April last year. Uh but no, I I think you're I think that's a good good linkage and I think it is very temporary for the stock market. Yeah. You know, gold it was just a correction. I think it's over now. By the way, good goal correction.
>> I would tend to agree with you on that as well. And I think a bottom has been put in. Um, now with respect to the war, I understand, you know, and I'm with you, by the way. I think things like this are noise that, you know, long-term is the better way to be positioned and look at, you know, for example, the way you look at the market momentum, look at the fundamentals. But do you think that there are any momentum based factors or potentially fundamental factors that the war is going to be impacting gold over the long term much like we saw when the Biden administration uh froze Russian US dollar assets in 2022 that this could potentially accelerate a ddollarization type uh type movement away from the US dollar.
Well, the dollar situation is interesting because too many people make a linkage between trends in the dollar and gold. And let me just state one fact. Right now, the dollar index is around 99. Okay? Recent lows have been down around 96. Okay? If you go back to when gold made its bare market low, which is December of 2015 at $1,040 some odd dollars. Okay? We're quadruple that price now. more than quadrupled. Where was the dollar index then? 97. There was you're almost where you were a decade 11 years ago. Gold quadrupled and the dollar has twisted sideways. Dollar index. So, it's not a good correlation. However, I do see the dollar as having been broken as of March last year when it dropped through 104. We turned bearish. Since then it has dropped into the 90s and is laboring mostly below the 100 level recently. I think it is in a negative trend and I think you could be right that the next obvious drop in the dollar will occur soon and people will say oh you know it's no longer the world's reserve currency. Why you need one I don't know anyway. We have the ability today to to transfer from one money unit to another instantly. So why you have to have one that is like a uh you know used to be the the British pound was you know u anyway that is changing and I think it is changing negatively for the dollar I think you're right on that and that could help help gold but the real issue for gold the ongoing degradation in the money unit >> in
>> and I would agree with that 100%. Now, what about silver in this regard? I I suspect, and I've spoken about it on the channel before, that the United States could be rebuilding its strategic Oh, apologies for the noise back there. We've got a guy coming through with a cart. So, uh, as I was saying, what about silver in this regard? I suspect, and I've said it in past videos, that the United States is potentially rebuilding its strategic silver, uh, stockpile. And again linking it to the war with Iran despite the fact that I agree with you that this is noise. I suppose my question here is and one that people in my Patreon community uh especially were curious about is um if you think this could potentially accelerate stockpiling of critical minerals like silver. If so, um, do you think that there are any other investable commodities that could be on the radar for people who are potentially watching this like copper, which is something else that my viewers are are very interested in.
>> Yeah, I think that the monetary metals are leading and now the commodities have joined them. Uh, and it's not always the case. Uh, broadly speaking about commodity, including copper, it it flows pretty well, not with gold, but with trends in the Bloomberg commodity index. It tends to move in pretty good sync with that. Sometimes stronger, sometimes not. But I think the issue of the US stockpile is, yeah, it's it's peripheral. I don't think it's the core driver of what's going on in monetary metals at all or silver. And silver is a two-faced metal. It is monetary metal. People forget that it does move with gold. The problem with silver pricing of silver is it's vastly historically underpriced. Think about this. Gold since it got legalized in 75 made a high at 200, then dropped back to 100, then went to 850, then dropped back to 260, then went to 1920, and so every time it makes higher high, it's massively higher than the prior bull market over that 50-year period. Silver was capped at 50 50. What's going on there? It moves with gold. It goes up with it and down with it, but it stayed capped. You can look back at copper, for example, and go back to the 1980s, 90s, 2000. And in 2005, after decades of range from 50 cents a pound to a buck 50, sort of like silver's four bucks to 50, four bucks to 50 range, it lasted 50 years. Copper broke out of that range in late 2005, early 2006 and on its own, by the way, and it quadrupled in price in a matter of several quarters. Quadrupled on its own without a major commodity upheaval as well and lived in a new reality after that. Lead did the same thing in 2007. Why didn't silver come out of its 50-year range until late last year? What's going on there? It's a monetary metal. Well, let's assume it made a mistake. You know, markets make mistakes. They get overbought and they pay dues on the downside. Or in the case of silver, I'd argue it stayed underpriced for too long. And when markets make mistakes, what do they usually do? They correct the mistake, but quite often they overshoot in an exaggerated way the the error they made the other way. So our view is silver's going to see three to 500 bucks an ounce and probably this year and I wouldn't be shocked to see it by this summer catching up to gold on a relative pricing basis. Right now silver is like 1.6% of the ounce of gold. Divide one into the other.
>> Mhm.
>> Heck 2011 when silver was at 50 bucks back then it was 3.1% price of gold. More than double its current relative value to gold. And in 1980 it was 6 12%. It would not shock me to see silver return to those relative performance levels like 3% or 6%.
>> So for those people who follow a gold to silver ratio that might be around like 30
>> off the page off the page. Yeah. Uh getting up to an old reality and do it quickly. Not take years to do it but take literally months to correct. much like an inverse crash. Okay, excess one way, begets it the other. I think silver is now engaged in that. And while gold is going to go a lot higher, I think silver is going to go like triple what gold does. And if you think about real dollar terms, what was the quantity of money back in 1980, M2 for example? What was the quantity of money in in 2011 when silver was at 50 bucks? What is it now? realizing that M2 increases about 80% quantity of money every decade. Every decade. Okay. Why come silver not reflecting that? If it did, it would be $300 to $500 just
>> Yeah.
>> And that's a very ambitious target, I would say. And I would say that there are, you know, there in the metal space, there are people who are critical of everything. There are many people who are critical of me, of maybe two conservative targets. And of course, I've seen criticisms of these ambitious targets of $3 to $500. So, if I understand what you're saying correctly, Mr. Oliver, it's that you think that the people aren't recognizing this long-term underpricing in silver that is going to actually catapult it into this $300 to $500 range. And people are potentially underestimating it. People who are even people like me who agree with you and say, "Yes, we're going much higher on silver. My target is, you know, anywhere between $150 and $200. So, what you're saying to me is I'm underestimating the long-term, let's call it, whether it was, you know, let's call it whatever you want, manipulation pressure that was put on the price of silver for so long that is going to take it to $300 to $500. And if I remember correctly, I've seen some recent conversations with you saying that it could happen as soon as this summer. Do you still see that happening as soon as this summer?
>> If if the recent correction is over, which we think it is, and by the way, most of it occurred really in a day and a half. January 31st, February the 2nd, the gold collapse and silver collapse did its thing then and it only and it went into a violent sideways range since. Every time it goes down within that range, people think it's making new lows and it doesn't. Frankly, we wanted to see a few weeks ago I put out a report said, "Let's see gold take out the FB low and silver, too." And sure enough, they did. And as soon as they took out the February price low, which any idiot with the price chart can see, and he ran from the market naturally, you know, the sell stops were elected. Okay? So, and new shorts no doubt got in as well at that point. What happened immediately thereafter was a catapult back to the upside. In other words, they cleansed themselves. And if that was the low, and I think it was, you're now head, you're back in the middle of that range almost now. And you ever get silver, for example, momentum, our weekly momentum is silver. In fact, I'm prepared on the weekend report right now. We've already broken out our weekly momentum silver, which is a fairly intermediate metric. It says, you know, likely you've seen the low and you're turning up. price has a level that even a price chart guy should notice. Since our high and the collapse in February, there have been three rallies on silver that got above 90 and then we sold there and sold there and sold there. Anytime it got above 90, three times you go back a fourth time back above 90, it's not going to stop this time. The lid's coming off. And I think that will shock people. And again ask yourself the question if copper can be trading now just below six bucks and it was in multi-deade range at an average price of $1 1980s 90s 2000 2005 while silver was still capped in the $50 range below you know 4 to 50 4 to 50. How come copper is trading five and six times its average price back then and people can't understand the potential for silver to be trading five or 10 times its price it was back then >> with all these factors in play you know supply demand government stockpiling um and monetary factors.
>> Okay. So let's say by the summertime we get to $3 to $500 an ounce.
>> My question to you is what happens after that? because you said earlier on that the market tends to overcompensate for things and I think you know most of my viewers understand that and I agree with you completely. So where where do we land? Where what becomes the new norm after $3 to $500 is um is sold off.
>> I'm going to bet that gold is uh well above its normal bull market peaks. Now you let's use the mama market first. It's two prior bull markets from the 76 correction low where it dropped back to 100 and then went to 850. That's an eight-fold move. Then from 2001 and two when it had a pull back to 260 area. It had another eight-fold move over the next decade to the 2011 peak. If we have another eight-fold move, in other words, just do it again. Goal to be well over 8,000 because our bare market low is,040 something. Okay, just to replicate what is done twice before. Even JP Morgan recently came out and said they have a a fundamental reason for thinking over 9,000. So, okay, imagine that happens. Where the heck would silver be at that point? Okay, here's our working assumption. When the stock market top completes its top, and it's already in the process of doing that, even though I think we're going to have a rally this month, I think it is a broad topping process. So when it breaks down, we have the largest stock market bubble in US history. It's the oldest. It's the biggest in terms of net gain from bare low to high. It's bigger than the 29 bubble. It's bigger than the 2000.com high bubble. It's bigger than the 2007 real estate mortgage crisis bubble. Far bigger by any way you want to measure time and dimension. And you can look at an M2 chart and you can look at a Fed funds rate chart and say, "Oh, now I know why it got printed higher." Okay? When it starts to break, you're going to have every data point you want to have go dark. And it usually happens after the stock market is already well off its high. That's when you see all the data points go dark as heck. And you know what the central banks will do? They will go ape. They'll go QE10, whatever they have to do. And now they have a problem with their their bond markets. They didn't have that back in seven. Seven through nine, bonds went up with gold. Yields went down. Bond prices went up with gold. 2000 to 2002, you could have bought bonds or gold and made money while the stock market went down. This time that's not what's happening. So suddenly you're left with one category. Pardon me for saying it. Real money. Okay. I think you're going to transition one country after another after another out of fiat currencies back into real money again because there'll be a realization due to pain. Street felt pain even government felt pain that hey the fiat stuff didn't work it created nothing but boom bust cycles and China is already moving in that direction. India is talking about silver in that direction. Uh you get the point meaning when silver goes to 3 to 500 it ain't coming back to 50. Yeah, you could have a sharp correction but it'll be in a new reality.
>> Yeah, I agree with you there and I'm already seeing some certain levels of desperation on the side of the Federal Reserve and I think not enough people are really paying attention to it because they're talking about holding rates. If I look at CME, Fed watch tool, they're talking about potentially, you know, expecting higher rates, but I'm looking at the Fed balance sheet and I'm seeing it slowly and consequently going up. And I'm saying to myself, >> what's happening here? And my interpretation of it is, and I'm curious to get your take on it, is that the Fed is already starting to fight with the bond market, the bond vigilantes who are driving the yields on these treasuries up because, of course, they expect more US dollar debasement, they're expecting more inflation around the corner. And the Federal Reserve, instead of, you know, decreasing rates further as was the plan, which the bond market, by the way, hasn't really fully been participating with.
>> That's right. They're trying to bump those yields on the short end of the of the curve down to make sure that they don't get out of hand. Do do you see it the same way?
>> Yeah, the t- bond market is now an issue. In fact, the governor, the president of New York Fed, Williams, I think his name, back in mid November said the Fed is now going to start buying bonds. And he wasn't pounding the table. He said, "Oh, it's just to provide liquidity." Okay. Yeah. Right. Okay, great. So, as you notice, the balance sheet is okay. They've been buying bonds, but look what's happened to T- bond futures since then. They were up 11718. Recently, we dropped down on the 112s. Okay? So, their buying hasn't helped. It may have slowed the downside or rise in yields that they've been trying to prevent, but it hasn't stopped it now. And we've got some technical reasons just using T-bond futures and momentum of T-bond futures that argues the recent drop may have broken the legs of the T-bond market where it's been sideways since late 2022. High high yields, high high rates, low price. All the rally efforts in T- bonds since that crash low in October of 2022 when it got down to 117. T- bonds had been above 190 in 2020. they collapsed. It's been sideways. They can't seem to get the bonds off the mat. And that's now a crisis. Just like look what the Japanese are doing. Their big panic is not corporate bonds. It's their own. And the new prime minister of Japan who has postured herself as sort of a reflection of Trump, meaning, you know, she's a conservative type or whatever, she used the phrase, "We're going to print print." Well, they're not the only ones with the bond problem. And so gold and silver, the real money, know that well, if they're going to have to deal with this crisis, not only commercial credit, which is starting to show as a crisis as well here in the US. Uh, and watch the financial sector, which we've been doing, because it technically does not look like the S&P anymore. It looks like it's edging toward the edge of a cliff. Um, they've got that problem, commercial credit, reflected by Bank of America, Visa. Look at their charts. Okay. Uh, and they got a T-bond problem. Well, there's only what do they have to fight it with? Monetary excess. Turn on the hose. Uh, well, what does that do to the degradation of the money unit in terms of its real quantity and its buying power degrades it? So, the real inflation is not commodity prices going up. It's the decline in the real value of the money in it. The yens, the pounds, the euros, the dollars. They're all competing in degradation. So,
>> look, we we talked about higher oil prices. We talked about the stock market topping out. Now, considering those two factors, I'm curious to get your take on the mining stocks, which again, many of my viewers are invested in and they're concerned about the sustainability of the mining stocks in a stock market crash as well as in a higher oil price environment that could affect the profitability of these companies. I'm curious to get your take. Are you are you bullish on these mining stocks?
>> Oh, absolutely. More so than I am on gold. There's been a recent shift. We measure uh we use spread measurements. What that means is we divide the price of one asset into another, express it as a percent. So for instance, back last last October November period, gold had been in a range of relative performance readings to the S&P for 10 years where to go up and down but really sideways, meaning par to the S&P. So, as the S&P went up, gold was going up as much with waves, but still really sideways, but it broke out of that range late last year. And what happened to gold after that? It exploded in price. Silver did the same thing versus the stock market, and so did the gold miners. If you plotted them, they had like a 10-year base of depressed relative performance. They broke out of it. You want to go back to October and see where the price was then of GDX, XAU, SIL, Silver Miners ETF. They've exploded since. And though they've taken a hard break this year from their high, we ran graphs, idiot graphs I call them, because it simply measures how much was the quarter up in price for gold, silver, gold miners, silver miners, and the S&P from December's close last year to March's close this year, first quarter. Silver was up almost 7%, gold was up more than 7%. Not bad for a quarter, right? Okay, GDX was up more than gold by a bit. And the best performer of all four was Sill. Hard to believe you look at the chart, but it was actually up more net price gain on the year and the S&P was down the opposite amount about 67%. So when people think the miners will go down with the stock market, well from December last year to March of this year, the miners are up 78% and S&P is down that much. So that correlation doesn't make much sense. Also, if you go back to the date you mentioned, the 2008 October event back then, gold had a puke along with the stock market. So did the miners. However, at that point in time on a relative performance basis when you plotted the miners, so I used XAU index back then because it existed and plotted versus gold or the S&P it was in negative performance trend mode, meaning it should have gone down more and suffered more than gold did for example back then. The opposite is the case now. When I run relative performance of miners versus gold, they've shifted to outperform. And I run miners versus S&P, they've shifted to outperform. So the total opposite condition exists now, meaning I favor the miners.
>> Okay. My last question to you is because last at the end of last year and early this year, I was banging the table a little bit on the oil stocks. I said, you know, with with interest rates coming down on a certificate of deposit in a money market account, you just can't get money on your cash like you were able to. I said, dividend yields look a lot better in the oil stocks while you wait for $100 plus oil to come around. So, my last question to you is for people who are just really diehard Bald Guy fans who watch all my videos and trying to position themselves this way. If you were structuring a portfolio between miners and oil companies, so let's focus on what your stock portfolio would be. What would be your particular balance here? Would it be a 50/50 balance? Maybe a 6040? Just out of curiosity, how would you approach that?
>> I would heavily emphasize the monetary metals miners, particularly silver miners. Now, in the case of commodities, I think we're at a historic point where the next several years. Commodities are coming up from vastly underpriced levels, including oil, base metals, grains. I think you can probably right now. Now, the problem, there's a problem with oil stocks right now. I'll mention that in a second. And with oil, the commodities in general are turning up and they're likely to go up for several years. They will be the benefactor of the money flow that the central banks create because investors become disillusioned with the stock market which is a breaking bubble and when it breaks they're going to put their money somewhere else. They're largely going to move into commodity based stocks. Oil stocks being one category. The only problem with oil right now we turned bullish in January as oil came up through 63. It got too excited by the war news. And it would not shock me to have a point where some good news comes out like for example somebody I put out a report a week or so ago suggesting this is a likely possibility but nobody seems to believe it. An uprising by the population that this time it will take hold quickly because the government is in fact crippled. In fact, probably if you're in the infrastructure of the government, you don't quite know who your boss is right now. Okay? When you have a street uprising, and these people are brave, we're not talking about a minority. We're talking about a large majority of the Iranian people. Even after the bombing that we've done of Thran, they praise it because it's crippled the government. If you have that kind of uprising, that whole situation could change overnight in terms of the perception of, oh, they're going to be around a while. No, they're not. the whole regime could collapse, which case the whole issue goes by the way. Uh, that's when the guys who bought oil based on war news and likely paid 90 or 100 bucks for West Texas, they could get kicked in the gut by that break. If we see that kind of break, like you ever get oil back to 80 or slightly below again, our breakout level was just above 63. So you pulled back about halfway to that breakout level and I would be looking to buy the panic of the exiting of the guys who were chasing the war news because oil has much bigger reasons to go higher. So right now I view the oil sector as a bit vulnerable in terms of buying it right here. You get a break then I would buy it.
>> I couldn't agree with you more. In fact I've been saying as well don't chase these oil stocks. the time to get in them was at the end of last year and early this year. But you know, for somebody who wants to hold a stock portfolio for the next 5 years, just coming back to that split between the miners and the oil stocks, what do you think is an appropriate split here? And which one would you favor more >> for this year?
>> I would favor the miners, the gold and silver miners.
>> Yes, I think the copper and base metal miners will do well. I think grain related stocks, fertilizer stocks for example have been benefited by the Iran situation recently but they have justification to go up too because I think the grains have turned technically that's our argument. So the whole complex of commodities and commodity related stocks, not just the metals, not just monetary metals, the base metals, grains, oil are a great category to be invested in, not trading. You're not looking to scalp it. You're looking to invest, hold for several years because we think there's going to be massive money flows created by central banks due to the breakage of the assets. They don't want to break their bond markets, commodity and the stock market. That money will go somewhere and I think it's already going there and that is into the broad commodity complex and that's a place to be.
>> I I couldn't agree more and you know anybody who's watching this video and is curious how I'm positioned. I my my goal was 70% mining stocks and I've been starting to scale up a bit. It was a last year scaling up on those silver miners and 30% oil stocks. But anyhow, Mr. Oliver, thank you so much for taking the time to join me here. And you know, you really saved my butt this week because otherwise I was going to have to be stuck in this hotel room for for 2 or 3 days making a video, but this was a great conversation and I know my viewers are going to absolutely love it. So, thank you again for joining me and hopefully we can do it again sometime.
>> Yeah, Roger. Thank you much. Thank you.
>> Thank you to everyone who watched that discussion with Mr. Michael Oliver. I hope you sincerely enjoyed it. Please leave a like below if you did. And for those of you who would like to see me live and have a chat with me, please remember that I will be appearing at Metalverse 5.0 in Warsaw, Poland on April 18th of this year. And you can go to Metalverse PL for full details as well as tickets. See some of you there. Have a great week ahead. Remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you in the next video. Goodbye.