Transcription
If we look at the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a narrative. Gosh, all of this oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is going to Asia. Well, let's look at other countries in the region. Japan, for example, gets 91% of their oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Uh, Philippines even more exposed, 94%. Now, China, interesting enough, has a lot less exposure to that. And the first thing is, is we have to realize is that China has now reached an energy self-sufficiency rate of 84% as of last year.
China has a strategic advantage, and it's the whole thing is just electricity. You know, China's electricity production is miles above the United States, where the United States has been stagnant for the last 30 years. Our electrical grid right now in the United States cannot handle this. This means that China depends on Iran for roughly 1.5% of its energy.
Does the United States know this? Does Donald Trump know this? Do any of these people understand that they are, um, skating not on thin ice, but on ice that's actually cracking underneath them?
And we are happy to have with us the one and only Cyrus Johnson and Alex from Reportify. Gentlemen, thank you for for joining us on this live stream. We have two uh experts in energy and geopolitics in China. They're experts in everything, Alexander. So, uh, so let's, uh, let's get to it because we have a lot to discuss.
Before I did this program, I was looking at the Financial Times. The absolute top article there, the very first big headline article is from Qatar. Qatar says, "We're weeks away from an economic disaster." Uh, that energy, um, that energy supplies of the Gulf are, um, running down, that before very long, um, more and more of the Gulf states, the Gulf producers are going to have to invoke force majeure in order to stop production. Uh, he said that, uh, we're looking at $150 a barrel for a price of oil very soon. He spoke about, um, problems getting production, um, of LNG and exports of LNG up and running from Qatar. Um, it would take weeks or months even if the situation ceased now. And he talked about all of this having a significant impact on the global economy. Is he, is he getting it right? Are we really on the brink of a major energy price shock?
We have to understand that, you know, the Iranians here have been out of the SWIFT banking system for decades, and they've been, you know, circumventing these rules and getting their oil into the global market, and especially customers like China. Now, Iran knows this, and the GCC countries as well, they know this. So this is going to cause not just a bottleneck with trying to get energy out to the rest of the world, especially Europe, but this is going to play out with currencies. This is going to play out, um, in the financial system. We are already seeing it. And I'm actually quite surprised, um, with the current barrel of oil and the natural gas with all the news that's come out on that, that these haven't 4xed or 5xed in the last week. And, uh, what we are seeing in the option market, the derivatives market, I don't know if most of your viewers know about the derivatives market. It has a value, notional value between $600 trillion to one quadrillion dollars. What is protecting that mostly? The Americans and their CME market in Chicago. The latest print out of Chicago has said, yes, uh, we are breaking records with energy derivatives. People trying to cover their ass, we'll say.
But they're also pointed out something that is quite worrying, that what is backing these $600 trillion to $800 trillion, $900 trillion, wherever you, you, uh, pick the day, there's only about $300 billion backing it. So if oil shoots up by 50%, there is not one country on the globe that can handle that much of an impact with these derivatives market. It pretty much makes every single bank, uh, in the world insolvent, and that's where we are. Iran knows that. They've been setting up offshore companies in Dubai, uh, circumventing it, and actually playing the option market themselves because they've been kicked out of the banking system. It's kind of funny, you know, the Fed, the Fed is printing dollars and waging a war with a country that doesn't even trade in dollars anymore. But anyway, back to you guys.
So, can I just quickly ask, does the United States know this? Does Donald Trump know this? Has this been this advice been given to him? Does Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor of Germany, does he know this? Do any of these people understand that they are, um, skating not on thin ice, but on ice that's actually cracking underneath them?
First of all, thank you guys for the amazing intro, and it's a pleasure to connect the four of us again. Uh, it's been, it's been a long time, and I just want to say thank you for this invitation. And, you know, in, in regards to Donald Trump, I want to come at this from the United States angle. As many of you know that I'm actually based in the United States. I am a US citizen, and I focus a lot on how the United States and China's relationship works. I, I think what we're seeing right now over the last 72 hours from the Trump administration, we have seen, um, a tremendous PR disaster in how they have framed this war, how they're trying to sell this war to the American public. So when you ask, does Donald Trump know this? I don't think he could even begin to understand what's going on because you can really clearly see right now that he, that they have not, you know, done their homework in what's going to happen in this war. Uh, earlier on Fox News a couple days ago, one of the Fox News correspondents had talked with the Trump administration. He said, "Everybody, we have close details working with the Trump administration, and we know that they have looked at Venezuela as a blueprint for how they would like to handle Iran." And that's the moment when I realized, wow, this is gross incompetence if they are looking at Venezuela because the two countries couldn't be further apart as far as, you know, geopolitically. And, and, and also, yes, the United States could launch a military operation in Venezuela. They could easily capture Maduro. They could basically wrap that up in a couple of days, and off you go. Iran is a total different animal. And if that is what the Trump administration and the senior intelligence from the United States is thinking, they are in a world of trouble right now, and they are vastly underprepared. I mean, we know the statistics behind Iran, four times bigger than Iraq, 90 million population. This is also something that I think we need to, need to consider is that this is an existential threat to Iran. They kind of have nothing to lose now. When you take out the Supreme Leader, nothing's going to stop them now. This is, this is really uncharted, uh, territory. Very different than last June. When we saw last June, the United States launched a very discreet, uh, you know, military campaign. I thought it was mainly a PR thing. Look, we're going to fly in with our super jets. We're going to drop a few bombs. We're going to spin it as this amazing victory for the next 12 months. Every single pep rally that Donald Trump has, you know, we have obliterated Iran's nuclear capability. America is great. We're fantastic. Everything else. If you hear that Iran can still develop nuclear weapons, guess what? That's fake news because the only real news is my, is me, Donald Trump. And then all of a sudden, Trump now says, "Well, they were one week away from developing a nuclear bomb." So, so you see this constant messaging from the United States government that is really, uh, it's just so many errors. It's, it's really actually hard to believe. And, and you start to see Donald Trump is now firing cabinet members. He's scrambling. You know, Marco Rubio's trying to cover, you know, he made a mistake saying, "Oh, we, we did this for Israel." Okay, actually, I didn't say that. Actually, sir, you said that yesterday. Well, it wasn't what I meant. I mean, you just couldn't ask for a more incompetent team from the United States side that is managing this crisis. And I'm very worried for the future. That's, that's, that's kind of my angle on that.
I, I, I'm going to quickly answer about Europe, about, um, mounts. They don't understand it either. They, they assumed that this was all going to come tumbling down and collapse. And I'm going to make another guess. The Gulf States, the leaders of the Gulf States didn't understand it either as well. Um, there are reports this morning that they are telling Trump, "For God's sake, win. Just get this win because we, you can't leave us alone with Iran if the Iranians, if the Iranians win." So they're telling Trump, "Keep going. Win this battle. That's what you promised us. That's what you must do." And at the same time, they're telling, uh, Vladimir Putin, "Oh, please help us get a ceasefire. Please end this conflict." I mean, they're telling the Americans one thing. They're telling the Russians the exact opposite. You could see that they themselves were completely taken by surprise by this, and they don't know, they don't know how to respond.
Alex, can I just ask you this? What about the, what about the financial authorities? What about people at the Fed, at the Bank of England, at the ECB, and all of these big financial institutions? I sometimes wonder how much they understand about what's really going on in the global economy, in the world of finance, in the financial markets. Do they understand that the ice is cracking beneath them?
Well, they should make a call to the CME in Chicago, uh, today in the next hour to ask how many contracts are being written because they should be worried about the margin call that Iran is going to be hitting their servers in Manhattan with. We are talking a staggering amount of money. The Iranians are doing this. There is proof in the financial system by, uh, the offshore companies that are being opened up in Dubai to act as exactly what they are trading in the derivatives market. So Iran has covered itself. Now everyone's concerned about missiles going back and forth, but watch what the Iranians are doing. They are hitting, uh, tankers, okay? They know that that will trigger some excitement, uh, especially in the natural gas market. And then, of course, the real ghost in the machine here is, why are they taking out Amazon's data centers?
Does this have something to do with, you know, AI information it being used? Uh, you know, a lot of these things that the Iranians are doing are quite clever. And everyone says, you know, well, why aren't they hitting them back? They're, they're, you know, the drones are not very effective. Look, they're getting hammered.
They don't care. You can see that they are at that point where, come on guys, sit down at the negotiation table. Come on, Jared Kushner's in town. I call him now the undertaker. You sit down with that guy for more than 45 minutes, and in the course of 48 hours, you're dead. So, uh, I would not sit down with Jared Kushner ever, uh, with any, uh, you know, meeting about any, uh, diplomatic, uh, solution that he has because the undertaker will take you out, and he does, and continues to do that. So the financial question here is, they better wake up fast here because we are talking within days here, days, Alexander, days, uh, if this oil market becomes totally unglued. And I don't know, they're managing to keep it within respectable levels right now, but once we start breathing that $100, then $125, then $150, I'm thinking $250 to maybe $300. Now, people might think, wow, Alex, that's quite a, uh, look what the silver market just did, guys. $120 an ounce for silver, $5,000 an ounce for gold. These boys, I'm telling you now, they didn't, they didn't see the housing crisis come. And I'm telling you, there is so much activity on the derivatives market right now that there is not enough money. There's 10 times more bets on the economies than there is with every single economy together has. There's almost a quadrillion dollars of, uh, derivatives written, and that's about 10 times the size of the global economy. And this could so easily come crashing down. Uh, and Iran is just sitting back going, you know what? What do we got to lose? What do we have to lose? We have nothing to lose. And there we sit. And I don't know, uh, if I was, uh, you know, the Fed right now, um, maybe it's a good time to vacate. Trump seems to think he's got the right guy. Well, let's see what he can do.
Cyrus, lots of talk. There's been lots of talk about China, and I, both of you, of course, are China experts. I'm going to start with you. Um, China is, a lot of people say that this whole operation is all about China in the end, cutting off oil supplies to China, and that this is, this is the plan, and that China is very vulnerable to the stopping of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, that he imports a large amount of oil from the Straits of Hormuz, that the Chinese economy is going to run out of oil, that it's going to face a crisis. Is there any truth to this? I, I, I have my own views about this, but I'd be interested to know what yours.
Alex, I just want to say thank you so much, Alexander. Thank you so much for the question because this is really the exact question I wanted to answer, and I'm so happy to have this opportunity to talk about this because, uh, this is something very interesting that I've been seeing a lot of geopolitical heads talking about on Twitter. A lot of people saying, look, this, this war is not about Israel. This war is not about even Iran. This war is all about China, and it's exactly the blueprint. Okay, guys, this is what happened. Donald Trump went after Maduro, you know, not for only the only specific reason was to actually stop Venezuelan oil going to China. That's the first punch. And now we're going in with the second punch. We take out Iran. Now you've got a one-two punch. China's done. Their economy's finished. USA wins. We're the greatest in the world. And I, I, I look at that analysis and I said, you guys are just scratching the surface of trying to understand how this world works. Here's an interesting thing. Let's go first to Venezuela. The only thing that has systematically changed in Venezuela right now to this date is, okay, we've taken out Maduro. The vice president has now risen into power. So there's not been a substantial change to that government at all. There's been no change to the citizens and how they're, you know, their lives are affected. So this whole thing of regime change and, you know, we want democracy and we want to help the Venezuelan people out, that's all nonsense. What we've done is we've literally gone in and stolen the oil. There was a, there was a new article published about 10 days ago from the South China Morning Post. Venezuelan oil is still being sold to China, and actually, it's just the United States that's selling it now. So we actually have the United States selling the oil to China as we speak. And so this whole narrative has just blown up because it's not about, you know, Chinese buying Venezuelan oil. It's who gets the profits. And obviously, it's the United States government now, by the way, in an offshore account that's controlled by Donald Trump. You can't make up this stuff. It almost sounds like I'm just fabricating a story. This is just how wild geopolitics have gone in 2026. I mean, the first two months of the year, unbelievable. We can't even imagine what has been happening. All of this.
Now, now let's go to China. And I've got the stats behind this. All right, this is really interesting because if we look at the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a narrative. Gosh, all of this oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is going to Asia. Well, let's look at other countries in the region. Japan, for example, gets 91% of their oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Uh, Philippines even more exposed, 94%. Now, China, interesting enough, has a lot less exposure to that. And the first thing is, is we have to realize is that China has now reached an energy self-sufficiency rate of 84% as of last year. And this is what Alex, this is what Alex from Reportify and I often talk about, right? We look at what China's doing. And, you know, Alex has made, you know, incredible videos documenting China's rise in electric vehicles. We have made on-the-ground visits to the hydro dams, the solar plants. You know, China has been leading renewable energy for a long time. When we kind of look at, for example, another hot topic, which is the race of AI. Who's going to win the battle of AI? Is it the United States or China? China has a strategic advantage, and it's the whole thing is just electricity. You know, China's electricity production is miles above the United States, where the United States has been stagnant for the last 30 years. Our electrical grid right now in the United States cannot handle this. And this is why, you know, AI, actually, it's not about who has the best engineers, who has the best microchips. China can figure that stuff out. At the end of the day, it comes down to electricity. You know, these things require an unbelievable amount of electricity. So this is what China has been doing, and this is how China moves systematically. They don't think about things in one year, two years. They think 10, 15, 20 years in advance, and this has been a 20-year project. Same thing in EVs. They set out in the year 2000, we want to be the dominant power in EVs. It's been a 25-year story. And now they see where they are. Now, the interesting thing is, is if we look at, I've got some statistics here. So, we're about 84% for China's self-sufficiency because they have all of these renewable energy. They're now producing as much renewable energy as they are in coal production to to power their country. But if you do the math, about 17% of China's oil comes from Iran. Okay? And that, about 59% of China's energy imports is oil. So if we're looking at energy imports, it's 15.4%. This means that China depends on Iran for roughly 1.5% of its energy. So if you do the math and you kind of go beyond the headlines, I mean, yes, China is exposed to a certain angle, but because of the diversification they have been able to manage that. And like you said, Venezuela, it's, you know, that first punch that we're talking about, that is null and void because the United States is still selling the oil to China. And so again, I just want people to kind of go beyond the headlines and really go into the numbers, and you can actually see that China is positioned very well because of diversification.
I've heard the same, actually. Um, that that now brings us to to something else, and I, I'd like both of your opinions about this, but I'll start with Cyrus. Um, what about China and Iran? I mean, the relationship has been quite a good one. Wang Yi has talked to Arashi, who is the foreign minister. Um, China says that it supports Iran in its struggle for, um, um, you know, preserving its sovereignty. Um, what is the exact nature of the relationship between China and Iran? A lot of speculation that China is helping Iran in all kinds of ways. Um, maybe military, maybe intelligence. They're certainly publishing lots of satellite photos of American bases, which is quite interesting. But what, what about economic assistance to Iran? We heard quite a lot about that a couple of years ago. There was going to be a major economic treaty. And just this one question, um, this whole sequence of events that we've had over the last few weeks began with an American-orchestrated crash of the Iranian currency. We know that because Scott Besson told us it was an American-orchestrated crash of the Iranian currency. Um, why didn't Iran turn to China at that moment? They're both members of the BRICS. I understand the central banks, uh, have connections, have contacts. What is the relationship between these two countries, and is China helping Iran at this time, and in what way? Cyrus?
Yeah, great, great question, Alexander. So I think what we need to look at in, in China's relationship and how they do business around the world, it's, it's a very interesting one because China is positioned as a major superpower. It is, like Alex, like Alex from Reportify said earlier, it has 154 countries around the globe that are inside the Belt and Road Initiative. We know that Iran has received its full BRICS membership, and so that BRICS partnership is, is very close in terms of economic and trade. Now, the interesting thing here with China is, is that they are very strategic in how they move around militarily. Uh, you know, for example, a lot of people were saying, look, China should be sending troops in, they should be, you know, supplying, uh, missiles, they should really be, you know, putting the Chinese military into Iran to really counter that. China still has to manage a very tight relationship because, for example, we know that this is Israel and the United States that are battling Iran. Now, China's not going to be sending in their military to battle, kind of, the United States directly. At the end of the day, the United States and China are still very, very important trading partners, and, and it's always this balancing act that you have to manage. And with China and the United States, because on one point, we call them an adversary, but on the other hand, they're one of our top trading partners, and actually, they're a vital trading partner for the lifeline of the United States economy. This is something that I often talk about. You know, we would not have a robust American economy if we did not have this trade with China. And the best example with that was last April, Liberation Day, when Donald Trump passed his tariffs around the globe because of his aggressive actions against China. This is what caused the stock market in the US to completely meltdown because, because China is the one country in the world that actually has leverage against the United States with the access to its rare earth minerals. So, for example, last year when you saw, you know, Trump go after the UK or Europe or Canada, for example, Canada has no leverage. You know, the Canadians can't really do anything if Trump wants to bully them. But when Trump says, "China, we're going to do 100% tariffs. We're going to do 150, 200%." China can retaliate and just say, "We'll match you. We'll match you." Until they basically call Trump's bluff, he calls off the thing, and then we resume trade. And, and, you know, he has to kind of spin it in a way that he saves face and that he, he calls it a win. But that's the balance of that United States and China trade relationship.
So, in regards back to getting the back to the core of the question here, what is, what is China and Iran doing? I wouldn't be surprised if China is certainly providing them with some type of military assistance, if it's intelligence, if it is potentially some supplies. I think what the simple thing is, is you got to look at Russia, Ukraine. Obviously, the United States, or sorry, obviously China and Russia are close allies, but we didn't see China helping out the Russians either, right? We didn't see a Chinese military go in and start to battle in Ukraine. Interesting enough, China also has a good relationship with Ukraine. And the whole time, China has been trying to balance that middle point of saying, look, we are allies. We are, we, we have relations with both Russia. We have relations with both Ukraine. You know, we want to respect the sovereignty of both nations. We don't particularly like this conflict. We would like to see a peaceful resolution because China, generally speaking, is a very peaceful country. I mean, they have not been involved in a war directly since 1979 in Vietnam. So I think you just find a lot of cautiousness from China because they're unlike the United States, who are certainly going to be firing at will, causing havoc, you know, going for regime change. You know, the United States is very aggressive in their foreign policy around the world. We all know this. This is a fact. Whether it's South America, the Middle East, the United States will bomb at will. They will do whatever the hell they want to do. China is going to be more coming it from a strategic sidelines and always trying to make sure that their position in the world stays balanced. You know, this is why, for example, China is not going to be sending in troops and sending in military craft to Russia to battle the Ukrainians. They're not going to do the same with Iran, but they're going to support it other ways, whether that's financial, whether that's intelligence, still trying to manage that balance that relationship and international trade.
Um, Alex, can I ask you this because I, I've been following, I, I've been taking much more interest in China over the last year, and I have now contacts there. One of the things I've discovered is that there absolutely is such a thing as Chinese public opinion. People in China do talk about these things. They talk about things on their very active social media, which I think people underestimate, actually, the extent to which this debate takes place. And also the Chinese public media, the state media, if you like, is also very informative. What is the present mood in China like? Are they optimistic? Are they worried about all of this? Do they see a very aggressive United States as a potential threat? Are they saying to themselves, "These attacks on Iran, are they a precursor to a possible attack upon ourselves?" Some of the rhetoric, some of the people in the United States is extraordinary, but I mean, they're following these events in Iran. Is this a big topic of discussion? What is the general mood about it in China?
Yeah, excellent question. Um, and I can give this, uh, a good answer. Um, I work with the state media here in China, and I understand the responsibilities that come along working, uh, with media directly here and the colleagues that, uh, work in our offices and other media outlets. They will not sugarcoat news stories here in China. Sometimes the stories may not have the flare of, uh, Fox News, but there's a responsibility, and the average person is extremely concerned about what is going on in Iran. They're extremely concerned at what's going on in Venezuela. And we're starting to hear a lot of chatter and a lot of talk about Cuba. And if these continue, if this continues, the average person here is concerned that the Americans may continue to push this, uh, right to the shores here, and they will involve, you know, China's Taiwan, and this is where things, uh, become really messy. Now, for the moment, they understand the country understands that its military has been building for almost five to six decades. This is a military that hasn't depleted its arms. It hasn't lost men in battle. It hasn't lost artillery. It hasn't lost tanks. It hasn't lost any of its weaponry because it has not been in a conflict. So it, let's just say the shelves are stocked, and the average Chinese knows the shelves are stocked. It's interesting when I went to the weaponry hall in the air show and saw all the weapons, and it was quite bizarre to see Chinese people taking selfies with ballistic missiles in the background. And I chummed up against a few of them and said, you know, what do you think? And they said, "I'm proud of my country that these products behind us are not for offensive. They are for defensive purposes only." And you hear that mentality around people in this country. They're very educated. They're very educated in geopolitical topics as well. They are all over the social media platforms. In fact, they can criticize their government. There is a number. It's quite easy to remember. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and you call that number, and you can say, "I don't like this, and I don't like that," or, "I need this needs to be fixed," or, "There's, you know, if it's from a municipality level, street lights down, you will get an answer in 48 hours." And, matter of fact, uh, if, uh, you might even get a small, uh, token, uh, of cash for reporting something that improves the city. That's just how it is. It's work. It works, uh, like a machine here. The, the country behaves like a company, and there is accountability. Um, yes, there, it's not perfect. Um, they do take, uh, corruption serious here. They too take things in other countries that should be serious, like drugs. You know, there are harsh penalties for that. But at the end of the day, are they concerned about geopolitical issues? Absolutely. Uh, but they look at it from a different angle. They don't look at it from, you know, we feel bad. Uh, look at the Americans, they're aggressive. They're concerned about how close that is going to get to their borders. And it's getting warm now here. And,
Normally what happens is, is I have a saying, you know, the guilty always scream the loudest. The Americans, as Cyrus has, you know, shared, are in big trouble here. And if they can't get out of this Iranian situation, they are going to do whatever they can to bring China into the situation. And that's where we have a big, big problem. And I think the energy sector is going to bankrupt, uh, a lot of these, uh, Middle Eastern countries and the United States system. You could just see the swings in the financial markets right now.
Dow up a thousand, Dow down a thousand, Dow up a thousand, oil up 6%. It's not going to take much. And once those fall, the Americans get desperate, and then they do more stupid things. And don't get me going on Lindsey Graham, but he has come over to the shores here a few times. And, uh, if it's either him or Jared, we got problems.
Cyrus, can I turn to you and talk about the other big Russian oil, the Russian oil and Chinese oil, uh, trade here? Now, Russia is, of course, a major energy exporter. It's, it exports to many, or used to export to many countries. It's been very, very heavily sanctioned. Um, Putin raised eyebrows in Europe the other day when he said that, let's completely forget about supplying LNG to Europe, and they don't want to buy it. So why should we even think about selling it to, um, um, most people don't know, but that the China is already heavily involved in Russian LNG, as I understand. I mean, the, the Chinese, um, well, I, I should say, I have a friend of mine who's actually worked in the Russian LNG industry, and he told me all about this, that, you know, the Chinese are already there. And there's, we're now entering the summer, so, you know, the Arctic ice is melting, it's going to melt. So the sea routes are open. You can send ships along the northern coast all the way to China. You don't, you don't need to worry about trade, about interference in your ships if you use that route.
Um, is this, is this a developing thing? Is the Russian oil trade with China, um, growing? Is this something that is important for China too?
Oh, absolutely. Um, there's no doubt about it that, you know, we already know that China is the largest buyer of Russian, you know, fossil fuels, and that they already do a tremendous amount of business together. This has certainly increased, as you know, over the last four years, and I think, you know, the interesting thing that we always have to to look at in geopolitics is that I think every nation has to make the best decision for their country, right? We look at, for example, India, right? India, for a long time, was given a lot of beef from the United States saying, look, you have to, you're the world's largest democracy, you need to fall in line with our objectives, you can't be buying Russian oil. And what did Modi say? Modi said, look, I've got an opportunity to buy Russian oil at a discounted price. This is in the best interest of my country, and, you know, our, our geopolitical stance is one of non-alignment, right? We're going to kind of be walking the fence, and, you know, we, yes, we want to be allies with the United States, but we're also going to do, you know, business with the Russians because they're our BRICS members, our BRICS founding member, you know, we're, and we're also having a unique opportunity to take advantage of that price point with a growing economy. Why wouldn't we do that? It's in the best interest of my nation, which is what I have to focus on. You see a very similar thing from China. Obviously, China's going to lean a little bit more into Russia in the future. Certainly right now, the oil increases are, the oil imports are increasing, and I think it's going to be a big part of China's strategic, um, you know, objectives moving forward. I mean, but we see this, I mean, again, it goes back to what I said earlier in, in far as the diversification, because even though China and Russia do a lot of oil trade, it's still not a significant amount. It's not something like 60, 70%. It's roughly around 20%. You know, you had 20%, you know, uh, 17% from Iran, you've got, you know, um, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, you've got even the United States, Canada, you've got a lot of different oil coming from all over the world. And it's, it's just an interesting one. Even this is a fun thing that maybe your, your viewers don't realize. Throughout this entire conflict with Russia, the United States has been actively buying uranium from the Russians because we can't get it anywhere else. And about 25% of the electricity generated in the United States for homes in the United States is generated from nuclear power. So despite the fact that, you know, the United States wants to push this button of, you know, we need to sanction the Russians, we can do nothing with the Russians, cut them off from everything, all of that, we're still spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year on uranium. Now, they have a plan to to to try to phase that out and and reduce that dependency, but you can't just, it's not a light switch. You can't just say, "Okay, tomorrow we stop." Obviously, you have supply chains. You have to, you have to reroute things. It's going to take, you need a very long plan to do that. So, again, even over the last four years, we're still buying uranium. So, so this is kind of a thing that we don't talk about. New York Times, actually, one of the truthful things they did is they actually made a whole story about this, just how dependent the United States is on uranium. So again, you always have to go beyond the headlines and do a little bit more research because the United States, no matter how much they want to, you know, say this to the world that you can't be doing business with the Russians, they still have to do business with the Russians on on some things that are vital to the United States stability. China's going to lean into that relationship. Um, obviously China and Russia are both founding members of the BRICS organization. They are, you know, close trading partners. Uh, again, we see a unique relationship where obviously China's not getting involved militarily. They're not going to be putting boots on the ground or military aircraft, you know, directly in that conflict with Ukraine. Uh, an interesting one here, just to kind of talk about how nations really need to depend and they're going to do what's in their best interest. We even seen the United States government now reach out to Ukraine and get help for missile interceptors. Right? So, you know, this is an interesting development where, you know, Ukraine has been begging the United States government for more military help. Now, the United States is realizing, gosh, our milit, our missile interceptors are, you know, we're running low on these. Ukraine, can you help us out? Can you, can you help us out in our conflict in the Middle East? So, it's, it's just an unbelievable kind of turn of events. And again, yes, I do think that that Russia-China relationship is going to continue to grow. I mean, this, this whole idea, this to Alex now, uh, this whole idea of economic blockades and economic war on China and trying to stop exports from the Gulf in order to hurt China and all of this. This is, this is geopolitics by teenagers. It, it is, it is not fundamentally how geopolitics, or at least international relations and international trading relations, um, managed intelligently work. The whole idea of an economic blockade on China, which some people in the United States have been talking about, if you look at patterns of world trade, I mean, it's stupid. More stupid even than the sanctions on Russia were, far more stupid. And starting a war with Iran, if that is the objective in order to do this, this is not just stupidity. It's absolute complete folly on top of everything else. It, it just doesn't, as I say, it just doesn't understand how economics, how trading relationships, how those sort of things work at all.
Can I ask you though, a separate question about China? How stable and strong is the Chinese economy? Because over the last five years, there's been this endless narrative, in fact, it started even before, um, the pandemic, that the Chinese economy is brittle, that there's overwhelming debt, that the property markets are in crisis, that China is overinvesting in production and in industry, that it's not dealing with its, um, major, uh, financial, financial problems. And that what it needs to do is to reflate its economy. It needs to do a massive spending spree, suck in more imports, ultimately from the United States and Europe. And that if it doesn't do that, it's in, it's in a case, it's in a state of stagnation. How much truth is there in that claim?
So, because I think it's a great question. There was an interesting thing. China just revised its growth and actually lowered it for the first time since 1991. So that's a headline that you're going to see. And the context here that I think is important is, I, we always try to be as fair and rational on our analysis on China. And I do want to be very clear. Yes, it's, it's now been revised to about a 4.5% growth. And a lot of people, you know, obviously the headlines in the US are like, "China's collapsing." This is a massive problem. The 4.5% growth is still more than the United States is projected to grow. And you have to remember the scale of the economy, right? If by, if you're growing 4.5%, that's about the equivalent of adding a Thailand-sized economy to your already existing economy. And we know the numbers of scale, right? I'll give you an example. When I first went to China in 2007, the economy grew by 14.4%. Incredible growth. I mean, this was an amazing time to be in China because so many industries were growing. But, you know, it's, it's, it's the compounding rule, right? If you keep doubling a number, it's, you know, it's very easy to double when you're starting at 10, double to 20, double to 40. But as that number gets bigger and bigger, it's very hard to double that number, right? This is why China could have that robust number of, wow, 14.4% in 2007. Okay, fast forward a few more years. Uh, 10% growth in 2010, still incredible. You know, double what the United States is growing. And as the economy continues to scale, it's going to be harder and harder to have these double-digit growth numbers. We're not going to see a double-digit growth number in China anytime in the future. It's going to be revised lower because the economy is much bigger. We talk about real estate. Yes, the real estate sector was a bit overheated. I, I was in the real estate sector in China. I bought an apartment in 2009. I flipped it in 2016 and had a tremendous amount of appreciation in the span of seven years. That was a time of China that was very different than before because what happens is, you know, China realized, look, we don't want to have this high speculation of people buying and flipping houses, which by the way, is very much the model here in the United States, where everybody's trying to buy a house, hopefully it appreciates, hopefully you can flip. You have people that are constantly flipping houses. But China says, you know what? Alex alluded to, China says, look, housing is for living. We want you guys to be living in these houses. We don't want you speculating so much. We want stability. The Chinese word for stability is "wending." You know that is, in Chinese culture, they value that stability. This is why, for example, they don't want to have wars because, you know, wars and chaos is very, very unstable for the Chinese. And that's, if you actually go back into Chinese history, you look at the 5,000 years of Chinese history, China has been anything but wending. It's been very unstable, right? Dynasties rise, then they fall. Constant rise, fall, constant rise, fall. So for thousands of years, there was never stability in China. And this is why when you, you know, Alexander, when you said I went to China and I re-started to realize that, you know, there is a public opinion in China. And if you talk to Chinese people, what they'll often say is, look, since the communist government was founded in 1949, our country has achieved that stability. Yes, there's been times of, you know, very hard times, right, during Chairman Mao's rule, the Great Leap Forward, you know, the, um, you know, the one-child policy, there was definitely mistakes made and difficult times, the Cultural Revolution, things like that. But again, the comp, the, the current government was established in 1949, and over the last 5,000 years of history, this has been the most stable time. This is where we've seen China rise from one of the top 10 poorest countries in the world to one of the top three richest countries in the world, you know, very close to the United States. And if you look at purchasing power parity, it's actually, you know, economies bigger than the United States. So, China is always continuing to evolve. It's looking to change, like Alex had alluded to. They're trying to do things like actually say, "Let's, let's increase consumer spending." You look at certain areas. If, if you're in AI, robotics, this is going to be a huge industry. One of the videos that I just made on my channel a couple weeks ago was talking about how China's birth crisis is actually going to be resolved by robotics. Right? China will lose a lot of its population in the future. It will not be 1.4 billion people. It will be, it will actually lose a lot because it has a very aging population. But as a result of that, it is leading the world in robotics. And you're having complete factories like the Xiaomi car factory right now is a dark factory. Everything's robotics. They don't need lights on because it can run 24/7 on robotics. And this is how they're supplementing there. So these, these are the stories that we need. Again, go beyond the headlines, get some context, and understand that China is, uh, advancing, and they're doing it in a different way, and they're adapting to the current challenges.
I'm glad you brought up Chinese history, actually, because this is something I wanted just to touch on. It goes back to Iran because China and Iran have actually had a very, very long history of interaction. It's a fact people don't know, but I mean, you, the Chinese dynasties of the past were very heavily involved in Central Asia, very much in contact with the Iranian world. There were trade missions between Iran and China at the time of the Tang Dynasty and after. Uh, the Iranians imported Chinese porcelain. I mean, these are two, these are two cultures that historically have known each other quite well. Do they know each other now? I mean, are Chinese people informed? I, Cyrus, just your thoughts about this. Do Chinese people know very much about Iran? Because I can tell you for a fact, very few people in the West know a great deal about Iran beyond, you know, what they see in the headlines.
Absolutely. I, I think one of the interesting things about China is that when you talk to the people, they're a very educated people. And I always use this example whenever I'm in China and I get into a taxi, you know, one of the first questions is always, "Where are you from?" I'm from the United States. And immediately that taxi driver will be able to talk about, you know, they're up to date on geopolitics. They're up to date on what's going on. Chinese people, they, they love to study how the world is around them. And I think that's a little bit more common for
You know, obviously, Europeans are very similar, right? They can understand the world around them. You know, my home country, the United States. The vast majority of people, we don't look outside the United States. The vast majority of Americans actually don't really even know much about Canada, our closest trading neighbor, our neighbor to the to the north. Um, if you ask the majority of Americans, what is the capital city of Canada? I would guarantee you a large majority would get that wrong. They would say Toronto, when it's in fact Ottawa, and this is our closest trading partner. This is our neighbor.
So I think what you see is, and this is what I've always observed and I've always been amazed by, is, you know, you know, for example, I will be in a taxi. I will talk to Chinese people. They know Iran's history. They know the situation in the Middle East. They'll constantly reference, "Well, remember when the United States dropped that bomb over there? Do you remember when they started the Iraq war with weapons of mass destruction that actually didn't exist?" I mean, they're up to date on these things a lot more. And I think it's what's interesting is, is even at, you know, your blue-collar level, right? You know, like a taxi driver that's just making a very modest salary every year, you know, spending his days taxi, you'll turn on the radio and they're having talk shows about this, right? This conflict is all over Chinese news.
Um, you know, when I was in China, uh, you know, when I go every summer, I'm back in China for multiple months, you know, with my family. And, you know, I remember going to, uh, you know, just restaurants and, you know, on the TV, you know, it's always geopolitics shows. We're talking about conflicts all over. I guarantee you right now, 24/7, they are having coverage over the Iran and Israel United States war right now.
Um, I mean, we saw this actually because, um, there were actually Chinese reporters that were showing, uh, actually in Tel Aviv. They were actually showing the bombs that were being hit in Tel Aviv, and people were commenting, "Wait a second, we're not seeing this on the CNN's and the BBC's." And I don't know if you guys saw that clip where the CNN kind of spilled the beans here. They said, "We would, we would like to show you that, but Israel has requested that we do not show these images for you." So, back to the studio over there. And it was a huge admission. It was a huge, it's like, "Wait a second. I'm sorry. What? Israel has requested that you don't show this to the American people?" And that's what happened is that we actually had a CCTV film crew live on the ground in Tel Aviv going over an apartment building that was bombed. And then all of a sudden, Israeli authorities came and shut them down. It's like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. You're not allowed to show this stuff." This is, but, but those photos and videos started getting leaked, and it's like, "Oh, well, because of Chinese media being on the ground in Israel now, we're getting an interesting angle." I've had some contacts in Russia that have told me the same thing that have said, "Look, we're starting to see a lot of different kind of contact, a lot of content coming from Israel that that the Russians are sharing because they're getting things that are not censored." And I think that's what's a really big thing. So, yeah, to answer that question, the Chinese are very aware. The Chinese are very intelligent. They're very smart. They know world history. They're up to date. And again, you go to a restaurant in China right now, I guarantee you the TV's on and people are watching and discussing this.
>> I'm going to finish with one last point, and it is a point actually, which is, um, I originally trained as a historian. This is where I started. This is my thing. And in some ways, this does remind me, the situation today does remind me in some respects of the situation a century ago in the West. You had in Europe, specifically, one country, Germany, which from about 1910 became incredibly busy, very active, was starting wars, uh, seemed to be sweeping the board in all sorts of ways. Uh, um, was becoming very, very aggressive, developed, uh, extraordinary ideas, which began, by the way, well before 1933, before a certain person came to power, which had, by the way, a very fragile, a very fragile financial system. Very few people know about Germany very well, but at the same time, was convinced that technologically, industrially, militarily, it was superior to everyone else. And this created a whole succession of crises in Europe. And for various periods of during those crises, it looked as if the Germans were going to sweep the board. And then, of course, far away, watching all of this, there was the big, enormous industrial economic power of that time, um, looking after itself, waiting, watching, keeping its distance, and eventually, of course, it swept the board. Um, let's replace Germany with the US today. The United States of that time with China. Are there any parallels to be made?
>> Uh, you know, again, I'm a US citizen. I, I, I'm looking at how my government is conducting itself around the world, what we're doing, and we're seeing a dramatic shift. I think a 2020, I think a 2016 Donald Trump is a completely different person than a 2026 Donald Trump. And we've seen these changes start over the year. Uh, I think 2020 was a major inflection point when he start, when he did not want to give up that presidency. We saw, you know, that is the backbone of a democracy, right? Is the peaceful handover of power. That is what separates us from, uh, you know, autocracy and other different types of government. I think what you're seeing right now is you're seeing Donald Trump,
>> very much embracing almost a 1933 Germany, and this is, we're going down a very similar pathway right here. Um, you know, we see this, and there was a very interesting video, uh, made by Johnny Harris, fantastic YouTuber, who actually made a video a few days ago saying, "Has fascism returned? I believe that Donald Trump is certainly a fascist. I believe that he wants ultimate power." He now is saying things like, you know, "I think, I think I deserve a third term. You know, I think I deserve this." And what's happening is here, guys, is that we have a very manipulated media in the United States, right? We have, yeah, social media platforms and media that are being consolidated and controlled by what? By, you know, a handful of billionaires that can really control the narrative. You have mega-influencers that are starting to say, "You know what? Trump's right. I think he deserves a third term." And whether you think he deserves it or not, we have to go back to the Constitution. Obviously, you can have a third term if you to put a bill forward and ratify the Constitution, right? That's what would that, that is what needs to happen for you in order to do that. There is a process. You put it towards Congress, and if you get a 67% majority vote, you could ratify the Constitution and change it, run for a third term. These are the principles that our country is based on. But when we're starting to go away from that, and you're starting to see these very fascist elements embraced, you're starting to see the desperation from the Trump administration of just honestly, look, look at the headlines that we've had in the first nine weeks of 2026. It's actually been a little bit hard for us as geopolitical commentators because, you know, we talk about Venezuela today, boom, it's Greenland next week. Okay, now it's Canada. Now we're in Iran. You know, now, now it's a regional war. Now are we talking China? What about Taiwan? I mean, how do we stay on top of things? You almost have to, we almost have to just do live streams because the, the stories are changing so fast.
>> Do, do I have time to add to that or wrap it up? No. So,
>> you know, as Cyrus is saying, you know, in 2016, I was like, "Okay, maybe this is a change for America." But then it comes down to who his administration is made up of and the influence that they have on his decisions. It is absolutely incredible. You asked me six months ago, did I think that, uh, the Americans would fly into a sovereign nation with some helicopters, grab a guy in his pajamas and his wife, and truck him to a jail in New York? I would think you're crazy. I don't anymore. Do I think, uh, Canada could become the 51st state of America, um, with by force from Americans? I'm starting to believe it now. Uh, does, uh, Greenland, are they posing a threat from the Americans? Yes, I'm starting to believe that now, too. Uh, you know, is this going to come to the shores of China?
>> Maybe, just maybe, it, it's going to. And what happens is, is when we start to get into this world of just so much stress, so much worry, uh, mistakes are going to be made here. And I think this Iranian, uh, invasion,
>> yeah,
>> was a colossal mistake. And it's going to play out in these markets. I want to add one more thing just because I know I talked about derivatives a lot earlier here today.
>> There is a very strange firm called Jane Street. I don't know if you're aware of them, but they are one of the largest derivatives traders in the world. 87% of their 662 billion portfolio is in derivatives.
>> They are a very secretive operation. They have 3,000 employees, but they don't have a CEO. They don't have a CFO. They've been kicked out of the Indian Stock Exchange. They, uh, pretty much, uh, blew up a, I think, a crypto stable coin for $40 billion.
>> And these boys are on the market, and I'm telling you, they are going to wreak havoc on the American market. Watch out for them. You'll hear their name in the newspapers, but you'll be very lucky to find out who is behind them. But, uh, they got quite the bet on silver. And I'm just looking at the pre-market on the good old oil there.
>> And there you go. 52-week high just hit just now. 87.57, up 8% today. Look out.
>> Gosh, gentlemen, you have been wonderful. Uh, thank you very much for joining us. Perhaps if you could just wait just a few more minutes. Alex, I think we have
>> a few minutes. A couple questions directed at both you guys. Just a couple more minutes if you can. Our viewers would would appreciate it.
>> I thought it would last more than an hour.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Let me start off with with with Cyrus from Lee Levven. Can factory workers afford to buy homes in China?
>> You know, there's a great, there's a great, um, I want you to look at this. Put, just put in, type in HSBC China home ownership. I think if you type that in on Google, you're going to see that. So, about, if you're looking at a home ownership rate in China, it's between 80 to 90%. And you got to remember, when you're looking at factory workers, they're in much more rural villages in China. So, you know, the prices of homes there are much more affordable. So, you know, you're not thinking of these like million-dollar apartments in Shanghai and things like that. If you look at China as a whole, China is close to around 85% home ownership. Alex had alluded to that earlier, that the Chinese value the home. Actually, in Chinese culture, that the home is your absolute most important asset in your entire life. And actually, in Chinese culture, you have to have a home in order to propose to a woman to ask her to marry you. So this is the whole thing behind this. This is why Alex alluded to as well. Sometimes families will come together, help you purchase a home, you know, you know, financially support you. But you have the home ownership rates are some of the highest in the world. Just Google it. China home ownership rates. Google it. You're going to be able to see that compared to even Western countries, China almost leads the world in home ownership rates.
>> All right. Uh, from JHW, question for Alex. What do you know about knockout clauses that nullify derivatives contracts if oil hits a certain price?
>> Okay, so well, knockout contracts, I mean, that's a very good question because you have to question the solvency of the bank and can they afford that? Like I said at the start of the program here, there's only about 308 billion securing about 600 to 800 trillion. Uh, even if it hits it, uh, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean that the bank is going to be solvent to pay you depending on what side of the trade you're on. It's kind of like you're an insurance broker, and if everybody gets into a car crash all at once, well, the insurance broker just says, "Well, act of God," or, uh, "We're filing for bankruptcy. It's been nice. Thank you very much." So the counterparty is important on that. Knockout clauses, I wouldn't rely on it. Secure your positions. Cyrus, can you explain to the audience that there is no such thing as the CCP? It's called the CPC, Communist Party of China.
>> Yeah, I think, you know, this is, this is an interesting one. I mean, the official name is the Communist Party of China. Uh, in Western media, you mostly hear that, you know, the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, CPC. I, I think, you know, honestly, I think it, it kind of, it blows up into something that really doesn't need to be talked about. You know, whether you call it CCP or CPC, it's the Chinese government. You know, I think a lot, it's mainly a talking point where, uh, you know, if you're in China, people will call it the CPC. You know, and, and so it's basically a point where some people will say, "Hey, the CCP," and then you'll get into an argument, "Well, that's actually technically called the CPC." You know, tomatoes, tomatoes. I think a lot of people blow it out of proportion. I mean, kind of an interesting side note to that, when the Chinese New Year holiday just happened about two weeks ago, many people were online battling, "Is it called the Lunar New Year or the Chinese New Year?" You know, the Chinese were saying, "Well, it's based on our Chinese thing."
>> Or, and so, you know, what I told them? I just said, "Look, at the end of the day, let's have a nice holiday." Whether you want to have, call it Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy Chinese New Year, Spring Festival, Lunar New Year, whatever you want to call it. This is the Year of the Horse. Let's have a good one. Right on.
>> All right. From Rockabilly, kudos Cyrus. Finally, someone who seems to understand percent increase versus base numbers and explained it well. And so, kudos to you, Cyrus. And one final one for Alex. A group of officials from the oil and gas industry based in Aberdeen had a meeting with Rachel Reeves on Wednesday in London to reduce a 7% tax rate which is killing North Sea production. Whether it has any positive effect, who knows? But there may be something happening in the next couple of weeks regarding oil and gas in the North Sea. Your thoughts?
>> Well, it depends what their production costs are. Um, I mean, the United States has pretty much taken out the biggest boy that has some of the cheapest gas on the market right now. And, uh, they didn't figure out that this is going to hit their financial markets big time. And it will happen. It's happening today. It will happen tomorrow. It'll happen Monday until this is over. Where it's going to stop, nobody knows. But, uh, if I was a guessing guy, if this continues to drag on for months, well, well, well over $100 a barrel, and we have an energy crisis in biblical proportions. Before I go, I just wanted to thank you gentlemen, uh, for having, uh, Cyrus and I on. We love having these live streams with you guys. It's, it's, it's an honor. True honor. Thank you.
>> Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much, gentlemen. Appreciate the invitation and chatting about our world. Always fascinating when the four of us get together. Thank you, gentlemen.
>> Let's do it again. Let's do it again soon. Thank you, Cyrus. Thank you, Alex.