Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will talk about BTC. We will, of course, review Powell's speech which is coming tomorrow. The next 24 hours, even 48 hours, will be very important. We will analyze the land and we will especially focus on the altcoins that have been requested for analysis. I have DOT, QNT, and ASM. So, I'll start here with BTC. For now, low volatility today. We are entering a small sideways phase. Nothing alarming. I think the market will range like this until tomorrow evening, generally before an important announcement or a speech from Powell. In 24 hours, in a day, logically the market calms down. There is a little less interest because it is much more complicated to take positions before such an important announcement. So often we enter a sideways phase, whether it's BTC or even indices like the S&P 500, there's a good chance it will move sideways, and tomorrow depending on what is said. Well, before, of course, we will have the results on the figures for the rates. Okay? Will there be a rate cut? Will there not be? Well, what is priced in at 95-96% is that there will be a rate cut. I don't think there will be any surprises for tomorrow, but well, what can greatly impact the market is what will be said during the FOMC and also the questions that will be asked. So, we will monitor all of that in detail. For now, how can it already impact cryptos? Well, what needs to be monitored, we cannot predict in advance what Powell will say. On the other hand, we can or cannot make decisions. Personally, in markets like this, with high volatility, especially cryptocurrencies, when announcements come, and especially a speech from Powell. I recall an announcement can be anticipated because we have expectations. Okay? We see here, we have expectations. On the other hand, for a speech, we don't know what he will say. We don't know what he will say. We don't know the questions that will be asked. That's why there is often much more volatility. Everything that happens on a 15-minute or 1-minute chart is useless. It's useless because you take too much risk given the volatility that can occur, or often during this kind of phase, we can get liquidated in both directions. We can have a strong bearish impulse to swallow, turn back to seek the opposite extremity, or we can simply do the opposite. Okay? In any case, it's a market that is generally very complicated to trade, and I advise you not to trade announcements. Yes, there is volatility, there are big swings, but it's often a tricky market. In any case, I personally do not trade this kind of announcement because I remind you that the most important point is always to preserve your capital. And when we are in phases of uncertainty like this, where the market is still moving sideways but hasn't found a clear direction, which seems to have found a direction since its break of $115,000, but nothing is certain for now. The most important thing here is not to take risks. Okay. Or else, to take a controlled risk and if we are wrong, to accept our loss, to change our bias quickly, and simply to close our position. Uh, well, I remind you, many people here during the crash on October 10th got liquidated, lost quite a bit. The goal is not to repeat this kind of phase again. When I say repeat, it's not specifically the drop he had, but it's especially the consequences on your wealth. Because in this kind of phase, I remind you, the goal is not to make the trade of the century, it's not to seek the best return, to seek the best buy. The goal here is to limit the damage, not to suffer big losses, and that means having stop losses. Well, many people got liquidated in this kind of drop, and well, you have to take a step back. Okay? What mistakes did you make, and what can you put in place to avoid making them again, whether it's now, in a week, in 6 months, a year. We always take a step back to simply try to benefit from these losses and for them to serve us, at least to teach us something, to simply give us a lesson, and that's how we progress. After all, losing capital can also be a learning experience. Okay? Perhaps not the best learning experience. Either we sacrifice our time, we train with the best, or we sacrifice a part of our capital to learn. The disadvantage is that we lose quite a bit of time because it takes time, and especially we sacrifice a part of our money. That, of course, is up to you to decide. Now, as I said, on BTC, a sideways phase, we have come back close to this resistance of $117,000. For me, we can move sideways between these two levels. What I absolutely do not want to see again here is the re-entry into this level, which I can even change the color of. Hop, there. I don't want us to go back below it. Clearly, we have a confirmation of exiting this sideways phase with the validation of a W pattern here. We break, we even retest this level, the structure at our neckline level, we have come back to lean on it. We have moving averages that act as support and are oriented upwards. We see it well here with the 1-hour tunnel. We have come back to pull back the 1-hour tunnel. As I told you recently, everything that comes back to test the tunnel, the 15-minute tunnel, sorry, I said 1-hour tunnel, the 15-minute tunnel, the white tunnel, everything that goes back to test the 3-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour moving averages, these are opportunities to position yourself. And there, we have perfectly pulled back. This is a level that must hold. If we lose this level, then I will globally monitor the level of $112,500, which will be the next support level in case we don't manage to push higher. If, on the other hand, we manage to push higher, we will have to monitor the reaction we can have at the contact of $117,000. After that, what is rather good is always from a psychological point of view. I don't see people who are particularly euphoric, whether it's here on the spreads that measure the difference between perpetual contracts and spot contracts of the same asset. This allows us to see if there is demand that is higher on one of the two contracts. So when we have a spread that is below zero, so negative, it means that the spot contract, the price of the spot contract is higher than the price of the perpetual contract. It indicates that we don't have any particular FOMO because generally on market top phases where everyone FOMOs like in 2021, we see it here at this level, even March 2024, December-November 2024, that's where we made tops, that's when there was strong madness. And here, it's true that recently, every time we've had a rise, we haven't had strongly positive fundings like we've seen at certain times like in 2021, even in 2024 here, even here in November 2024, we see that we have fundings that are rather neutral now and we don't experience strong euphoria. Is it because the market is more mature, so there is less FOMO on perpetual contracts? For me, I doubt it. Human psychology doesn't change. If it's going to pump, we see it clearly with gold. Gold currently has a big FOMO, a big euphoria. For me, it can still happen with cryptos. It's not because we have assets that are a bit more mature that yes, we understand cryptos much better, we have more confidence, it's not like in 2015, 2000, even 2019, okay? Here, regulation is being put in place, adoption is more important, but for me, that doesn't prevent that if there's going to be a strong pump, we'll still have FOMO. So on that, what's good is that we don't have a lot of people starting to say Bitcoin to the moon, it's hyper bullish, and we have a sentiment that can switch quickly. On support levels, generally here everyone is afraid. We saw it when we came back to test it once, a second time, a third time, there were quite a few who were afraid. That's a fact. And I told you, I repeated it to you, I told you, we are clearly on a very complicated, decisive level, and I even told you that often it's in these phases that it's hardest to buy because mentally it's difficult because I don't know, because it went down, because we are in phases of uncertainty, that often these are the best opportunities. And that's something you can ask yourself when you hesitate to buy. You can ask yourself, is it complicated, or on the contrary, do you find it easy? Okay? That's really a question to ask yourself because if you find it too easy, it's surely because we are too high because yes, it's always mentally simpler. I'm not talking about the choice of whether it's a good trade or not, but just mentally, it's always simpler to buy when it's going up, okay, than when it's going down or when it's very low. Because we are afraid to buy when it's low. And when you have this discomfort, it's often that it's a good entry because the moments of discomfort are often where there was a panic sell, where quite a few people are afraid. And it's always interesting to buy back fear. Anyway, it's true, this is something that is very difficult, but when you buy back fear and capitulation phases like we had in May 2021, like we had at the time of the FTX crash, even when we came back to test $20,000, even this kind of dump on August 5th at this level. Uh, this level, well, this kind of phase, it's often when everyone is afraid that the best opportunities are there. And it's true that sometimes people have trouble believing that the market will go down, but drops are opportunities. If you don't want a market that goes down, I don't see how you will be able to have good positions that will perform well in the long term. Because during this cycle, I was able to buy BTC, I was able to reinforce in certain places, but my best performances are because I experienced a very complicated phase here, which allowed me to have very good entries. And then, well, a complicated phase, automatically we reap the fruits, I want to say, of our work. Here, yes, of course, I'm taking advantage, but much less than the entries I had at this level. So, for me, drops are also opportunities. You have to know how to buy them back well and especially have the courage to buy them back because it's often not easy. And I see many who will say, "Yes, if we go back to $50,000, $60,000, it would be magnificent on BTC. I would love it, I could buy one, etc." Except that it's easy when you're there, except that when the market drops by 50%, when everyone is panicking, when an exchange closes, when everyone says it's going to go lower, it's still not easy to buy, I tell you, I tell you clearly. So, well, in any case, on BTC, you have my opinion. Globally, I am patient. We are still in a dynamic that is, of course, bullish. There's no problem with that. We remain above the moving averages. We see that we have tested this daily pivot point. We have tested another one. Here, we are at the top, approximately at resistance one of our daily pivot point. There is a good zone here in case we go there. $113,000 monthly pivot, daily pivot, and 4-hour tunnel. This could be a good localization zone. In any case, for the moment, we remain in a bullish flow, in a bullish dynamic. I'm putting a rectangle here. I am globally in a range. A range preceded by a bullish dynamic. More chance of breaking upwards. So for the moment, I remain calm, I am wary. It's not because I am calm that I am not wary either. I think we have more chance of having a continuation in the direction of this trend that we started some time ago. But what we need to be wary of is tomorrow because we cannot anticipate in advance what will be said. It's impossible. Someone who says, "Yes, Powell will announce something terrible and the whole market will crash." That person is a liar. Okay, that's where chance comes in. No, what I'm saying is we need to be cautious because we cannot know what he will say. I think we will still have a rate cut, and that is something bullish for the market and will be very reassuring for the future. However, I cannot know what Powell will say, okay? So I am still wary. I am not taking positions with high leverage. I, well, simply on that, I remain wary on my side. Now, regarding Ethereum. Ethereum is consolidating. We will also analyze the ETHBTC pair, we really haven't done that. We'll do that just after. Regarding the altcoins, well, we validated this W structure. We see this level well. Low, high, low higher than the previous one, high higher than the previous one. We have our neckline around $4080, which we have retested like BTC. Both have come back to retest their neckline, which are also very important levels. We have come back to test this resistance zone on Ether at $4240. Okay, we have rejected. Now, what needs to be monitored is whether we re-enter this level. This is clearly a level that acts as support. We have good confluence. We see the H4 tunnel that we have re-entered and that now acts as support. From the pivot point perspective, we are also at the top of a monthly pivot point, we see it well. And here, we don't have any particular confluence with a pivot point, it's a bit lower at the weekly pivot point level. So in any case, what needs to be monitored is simple, it's these two intervention zones. Where we are is a good zone to look for buys, and this upper extremity is a good zone to look for shorts. I'm talking really for those who do very short-term trading here. In any case, for those who do long-term, I, in any case, cannot position myself on Ether, I wouldn't have a setup. Okay, something like this, a chart like this, I mean, we take a Fibonacci, highest point, lowest point, and we look to position ourselves generally. The first stop can be interesting at 0.382, but often I like to go back to 0.786, which doesn't happen often, but when it does, it gives us very good entries. The proof here, you see, we came exactly into our long-term reload zone, perfectly to set a bottom, and often that's where we get the best entries. I draw my Fibonacci, lowest point, highest point, we have perfectly returned inside. And when we come to test a long-term reload zone like this, it's often after a strong drop. It's not because of that that the market will necessarily set a bottom, but often that's where it becomes interesting to reposition for the long term. Here, when it pumps like this, when we are close to the ATH, no, I don't have a setup. If I started taking profits, I did it at this level, 3007 on Ether. I had taken at 4003, I had taken at 4002. It's not to reposition myself here. So on Ether, it could become interesting again if we come back to test, on the very long term, as I said, this zone, hop, $2400, $2200, it's a good zone, but I would start personally to reposition myself if we come back to test $3000. Here, I would have first orders that would be executed because I estimate that it's a level that is supposed to act as support, and after taking profits on this upper extremity, okay, I have recovered cash, and it's cash that is ready to be reused to re-enter. I remind you, when the market goes up, we take profits, we exit on the rise at certain levels. It's not because of that that we will catch the top, the proof. I sold at 3007, here, we were higher. I sold at 4003, 400, here we were higher. I sold again at 4002. Well, I could have sold at 4009, I didn't. Okay. But the goal is when the market goes up, we reduce our exposure, we look to take profits, and when we have a market that corrects like this phase, and that's when everyone capitulates, when everyone says it's the end, that we take advantage to reaccumulate with the cash that was recovered just before. It's a balance like that, an exposure slider that allows us to simply have control over our investments, not to be always all-in or 100% cash and be stuck. Personally, that's how I proceed in the long term. Well. So, as I said, we saw it on the short term for Ether, and also for the ETHBTC chart. We start on weekly. For me, I told you, on weekly, the bottom has been made. Here, we see it well with this W structure, reversal structure. We have come back to test this previous accumulation zone, or what did we have at that time? Likewise, a W structure here, lower lows, higher highs, break, pullback. Very good. We had this accumulation phase where we can even see an inverted head and shoulders, which is a larger structure. We break, we have come back to test this previous zone where demand was higher than supply to offer here a double structure. For me, for the next, rather the next weeks, rather the next months, for me, in the long term, Ether is ready to outperform BTC. Why? Because we have reversed our dynamic. We saw it well, we were making lower highs here. Okay? Well, here, we are making a higher high, and even a higher high than this level. So we are also breaking the daily tunnel which acted as resistance for months, even for 2-3 years. We see it well from the moment we lost this level, and here we break it and we pull back. It's normal to have correction phases. Okay, we're not going to go up in a straight line. We see it well here, we pump, we retrace, we pump, we retrace. But the lows, the highs remain higher. Well, we can do the same. We pump, we retrace, we pump, we retrace a bit, we pump, we retrace to then offer a new impulse. In any case, I remain bullish on Ether. For me, Ether is ready to outperform BTC. An interesting signal would be to go back above this level. Why? Because we would go back above the 4-hour tunnel. We would reverse this medium-term bearish dynamic. Here, we have a medium-term bearish dynamic within a long-term bullish dynamic. So it's normal, we always seek to have time unit convergences. That means we take three time units, for example, the 1 week, the 1 day, and the 4-hour. When we trade like this on what is called multi-frame analysis, we generally like to have all time units going in the same direction. When one starts to go in the wrong direction, for example, something like this here, or even a, here I put 4D, it's 4 hours. Okay. Hop, if I manage. Well, it's much more complicated. Generally, we prefer this kind of scenario where all time units are oriented in the same direction like here to continue the trend, rather than this kind of phase. That's why to return to this convergence we mentioned, all time units in the same direction, we need to go back, for me, above this level, validate this W structure, and go back above the moving averages. In any case, I remain bullish on the ETH BTC pair. Well, on that, Bitcoin, we saw regarding altcoins, we don't have many altcoins that stand out except for Tao. Tao remains a strong altcoin. We mentioned it recently, we see it on monthly. Here is a crypto that has performed very well, and it remains a crypto that outperforms all altcoins. If I take here, hop, Tao, here we are testing its resistance. So we are certainly not in the best zone to position ourselves, but it's true that it's a very strong altcoin, which even outperforms BTC. Currently, we can look at Tao BTC and we see well that since the bottom that was made at the beginning of October, we are in a bullish dynamic. We have set a bottom. Here, we are in a range preceded by an impulse, more chance of breaking upwards. And it remains an encouraging chart when we look at Tao against BTC. Compared to many altcoins that are in a bearish dynamic against BTC, Tao is trying to set a bottom. The long-term bottom will be truly validated if we manage to break free from this level. But for me, this chart, I find it rather interesting. Uh, is it in the long term, are we in a good zone to position ourselves? It's not in the most interesting zone. Here, everything that comes below $300, that could be good. But here, we are globally in the middle of a range. It's not the most profitable zone, and it's not the best entry point you could have. Clear, yes, clearly, it's not the best zone. There are worse, but I, in any case, could not position myself here. If, on the other hand, we break and we have a pullback here, there could be a long that can be taken to visit the opposite extremity because when we break the middle of the range, generally, it's to go to the opposite extremity. We see it well, our middle of the range is around here where we broke. We went to seek the low extremity, which we broke, we went to seek the high extremity. It acted as support, which we broke, we came back to seek the low extremity. So if Tao manages to break above $450, which would be a first since, well, 2025, we would have a high chance of reaching, let's say, $650-$700. We'll have to see how we react. After that, of course, if we set a top here, well, we'll go back to perhaps the middle of the range. But in any case, the most probable is to go to the top of the range, and that would absolutely not be a good zone to position yourself, it would even be interesting to take a part, to take profits on this upper extremity. So, regarding altcoins, I was asked for an analysis of DOT. Hop there. Well, DOT is not great. Importantly, DOT remains an interesting project. There's just no demand. The progress is quite slow. Okay. But we remain in an interesting narrative. Will it pump one day? I don't know. What is certain is that it's a disappointment since the drop we had since the bear market of 2022. We entered a big sideways phase. We haven't managed to get out of this sideways phase upwards. We are even in the process of losing this range and breaking downwards. We see that we are breaking slowly, which is even worse because it makes you wonder if we have broken, if we are going to break. If I really take the low extremity of the range at this level, we can say that we have broken. Except that each time, we have small re-entries. We see it well, we re-enter here, we re-enter again here. Here, we dump to come back to this low. For me, we have exited the value area. We see it well. Here, we have our volume profile which allows us to define the extremities. We have at this level the value area which represents 70% of the traded volumes. Here we have our value high. Okay, value area high. And here, below, we have our value area low. Generally, at the extremities, that's where we look to position ourselves. The value area low is a good zone to look for longs to revisit the value high. And conversely, the value area high is a good zone to look for shorts. Okay, to come back to the extremity, the low extremity. Like this, when ranging, we generally do ping pong between the two levels. Now, we are settling in, we have settled below the value area. We can assume that this range is broken. Here we made an all-time low at this level. Well, this wick, we can not count it because it's our October 10th crash. We went really low. We went to this level to make an all-time low, I said an ATH, an ATL, an all-time low, a historical low. And for now, we are accepting the break of this level. So for now, there is no buy signal for me on Polkadot. At what point can we have a buy signal? There are two. There are two scenarios. Either we have a buyer reaction here and we manage to re-enter and go back above $5. If that's the case, it will be a rather bullish signal, and we will have a good chance of reaching at least $7-$8. We would validate a reversal pattern. In any case, we would reverse our dynamic, we would go back above the moving averages, daily tunnel, 4-hour tunnel, we would break this weekly resistance, and then it would clearly be a bullish signal. So we can generally play the pullback, breakback, we look for a long, or we wait for a structure to form. A W pattern. It could be here, it could be lower, I don't know, but globally, that's what I would wait for to position myself. Well, on Polkadot. Then we had QNT. Well, QNT hasn't done much since 2022. Uh, well, my drawing here is still current. We are in a range, so either we have a breakout upwards, and in that case, we look to play the trend continuation. We play the breakout, okay, with a break and acceptance. That is, it's not just a break, a re-entry, well, we have false wicks here that are not great, which show us that the market is timid. Either we have that, or we play on the extremities. That is, the upper extremity here is a good zone to look for shorts. The lower extremity is a good zone to look for longs, and we do ping pong. And there is enough amplitude to have opportunities. When we look between the lower extremity and the upper extremity, we are at 150%. There's something to be done. Someone who positions themselves on the range, who takes their profits at the top of the range, it's not like we are stuck between 5-10% where yes, it would be less interesting. There is still enough volatility. Now, we are not in a context where we will trade the trend. No, this is pure range trading, we see it well. The moving averages are flat, the daily tunnel is flat, the 3-day tunnel is flat. There is no trend. Here, there will be a trend when we have a breakout upwards or downwards from this range. For now, we are in a compression phase. So either we wait for a break, okay? Or we look to position ourselves at the extremities. That's the only opportunity there will be on QNT. And if we manage to break upwards, we can globally revisit $0.18 at $280. That would be a good target here. Last crypto, I was asked about ASM. So ASM, well, I'll tell you right away, I don't like this kind of chart when I see this. I don't like it. Why? Because this is pump and dump. There is no construction, there is no structure. It's like we pump suddenly, we make our big performance, and then hop, -92%. Logically, an altcoin, an asset with volume, liquidity, where there are still participants, and well, we have a good exchange between supply and demand. You can't see this and this. You will never see this on the S&P 500. On a 1-minute chart, you can, but in the long term, it's not possible because the market needs to create structures. Okay, to have a bearish trend, a bullish trend, and not just pumps. So it's not the kind of chart that I like to trade, just because of that, something we've done again here, we've done it at this level. Well, it's not particularly interesting. Now, where are we? Well, we are coming back to a demand zone where every time we have been in this zone, we have had buyer reactions. We see it well with this good pump. Here, we have had a W structure. Here, it's rather good. Okay. Accumulation pattern. We have come back to test the pattern. We have had a pattern again. And it's true that every time we have been in this zone, we have had a good performance. Will the pattern repeat itself? It's entirely possible. In any case, we are in a zone where personally, if I have to enter, I would look for longs rather than shorts because in a demand zone like this, we will rather look for longs with an invalidation. Either we have a W structure here, we put an invalidation below the structure, or we look for a long in this zone with an invalidation below the historical low which is here, or below this structure. We say this is my invalidation, if we go below this level, I prefer to exit because it would globally be a long-term invalidation. So yes, we are in a good zone to position ourselves. However, be careful, when I look at the medium term, it's visible. We remain in a dynamic that is bearish. We have tunnels oriented downwards. The 1-hour below the 4-hour, the 4-hour below the daily. So I would clearly be bearish and I would prefer to wait for at least a small W pattern, while knowing that it can take off very strongly. We see it well here. This is what I was saying. See in 2 days or in one day, we make x3 or even x4, and then we re-enter suddenly. On that, you have to know that I think it's a crypto with a very low market cap. Well, 852nd price by market cap, 21 million. So it's normal to have this kind of manipulation, this kind of pump and dump, and generally be careful if you enter here, have good risk management because we can be on a crypto that can take a -50% quite quickly. We see it well with the volatility. However, what is certain is that we are in a good zone to position ourselves, but I would still wait for a buyer reaction. Well, I've said what I wanted to say from my side. I leave you with this. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.