Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be discussing the current window of weakness. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. We're going to be ending that sale in just a few days. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $73,000. Okay. Now, just literally like a couple of weeks ago, it was trading at around $83,000. So, we've basically gone down $10,000 just over the last few weeks. But notably, the rejection occurred at the 200-day moving average, precisely at the 200-day moving average, which is where Bitcoin precisely found resistance in 2022 and 2018, as you can see.
So, the window of weakness. Normally for Bitcoin, there are several of them in the midterm year. First of all, the entire midterm year is the window of weakness. So, if we think about this, we draw this out. We have four years in the cycle. Okay? You have year 1, year 2, year 3, and year 4. Okay? One, two, three, and four.
Now, in this case, the way that I, at least, am thinking about it, like the way that I'm sort of thinking about it. I mean, I guess you could think about it in terms of like presidential cycles, but let's just say that year four are your post-halving years. Okay? So, this is like your, you know, your 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025. You then have your election years. So, you have 2012. I mean, you really have 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. Your, uh, pre-election years, right? So, your pre-election years, those would be 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. And then finally, the midterm years. So, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. But in this case, we're actually not going to include 2010, uh, just for. Well, I guess we could. 2010, 2014, 2018, and then 2022. So, you have these baskets of years, right? And the main window of weakness for Bitcoin is in this year, the first year, the midterm year. This is the main window of weakness.
Now, really, you could argue that maybe the midterm year should be year four, not year one. But we're just this is how we're noting it in this video. The whole year is a window of weakness. But within that year, there are pockets of strength mixed into the weak year. And those pockets of strength occur at somewhat. It's not perfect. Get off my back. At somewhat predictable times. The window of weakness is somewhat predictable, but again, seasonality is only right, like 70% of the time, right? Like it, it, it is right more often than not, but when it's not right, people get really mad. And, and, you know, this is just the way the markets work.
Look at when Bitcoin found lows so far. The first one was at the very end of the post-halving year. Notice that we also found a low, um, right here at the end of this post-halving year. You see that? You get your initial drop, and then you bounce for a little bit, and then you fall again. All right. Look back over here in 2018. You had sort of these initial drops at the very end of the post-halving year, and then we sort of bounced off of it. But you tend to get a drop at the very end of the post-halving year, and it's always too soon for a lot of people to admit it's a bear market because why should they admit it? Up until this point, every rally has been bought for years. So, you get your first drop at the very end of year four, the first drop of the bear market. And I mean, you can go back even further and see that it, you know, it played out in 2014 as well, right? You got your first initial drop at the very end of the post-halving year. You're not sure it's a bear market, but it always is, right? It always is a bear market that late in the cycle. Okay.
The first major low, therefore, occurs usually at the end of the post-halving year. The second low tends to occur in February. February of 2014, February of 2018, February of 2022, kind of. I mean, it was really like late January, like literally like some of the last days of January. So, again, it's close. It's not always perfect. And then this time, February of 2026. Okay. February, Bitcoin often finds a low. Then you tend to find another low in April. Sometimes it's a higher low, sometimes it's a lower low, but that is when the low forms. All right. Now, go through history, you'll see what I'm talking about. April 2014 was a lower low. April 2018, a higher low. 2020, uh, 2022 was a little bit different because Bitcoin was selling off into April, but the low didn't occur until May before it bounced. So, it's not perfect, but more times than not, Bitcoin finds a low in February, and more times than not, it finds a higher low, um, sometime in like, you know, April, sometime in that ballpark. But this time it was like off by two days, right? The higher low occurred at the very end of March rather than the very beginning of April. Kind of like how in the last cycle, the low occurred in late January rather than like really early February. So, imagine in 2022 if you saw this pattern, you're like, "All right, well, the low will be in February," and then the low ends up occurring on like January, like 25th or something, late January. And then everyone gets mad because the market found the low a few days before you thought it was going to. The same thing happened once again because, you know, this time I was like, "All right, we'll likely find a low, and it could be a higher low like 2018. We'll likely find the higher low or lower low in early April." And then what happened? It occurred on March 29th, right? Like two days, um, I guess three days before before April started. So, it's not perfect, but you can see like when the weakness comes into play.
So, when is the next major window of weakness? When does it end? Well, if you look in 2018, the next low was in June. It was in late June. In 2022, it was in mid-June. Two out of three years, it was June. In 2014, the high was June. But guess what? You still had a pretty big drop in June. You can see that window of weakness sort of appeared after this rally that also basically got rejected at the 200-day moving average, plus or minus a few percent. Okay.
So, what we talked about previously was that, and I said this very clearly. I said, "I don't think this is 2014 because we already had that rally to those levels. We were already at the 200-day moving average." And when you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026, it had already had the same move to the levels that we had achieved in 2014, right? Like it had already achieved it. So, it didn't make sense to keep calling for it. It made more sense to say, "All right, this is when you'll likely start going down." And a few days ago, about a week or two ago, probably two weeks ago, I said that in order for June to potentially mark a low, we have to start going down soon because how can June mark a low if Bitcoin just keeps going up into June? It looks like that's what's happening, right? Like the market started selling off in early May, which is exactly when it started selling off in 2018 in early May, right? You can see it started selling off, and, and it just continued to slowly bleed out, and it bled out until late June, and then you had a rally, right? A July rally, the July rally of 2018. And you had a July rally that lasted into mid-August in 2022. So, notice in 2014, July and August were weak, but that was because we went up into June, not down into June.
So, if we're thinking about this from a seasonality perspective, say, you know what, it's there's a good chance it's right, but there's a 30% chance it's wrong. Okay? So, we're just doing the best we have here. I don't really recommend trying to trade counter-trend rallies. I, I don't, I, I think it's a fool's errand. This is an academic exercise because what else the hell are we going to do for the next few months? Okay.
So, in this case, when you're thinking about when is the next window of weakness going to end, if this plays out like prior cycles, June would be a candidate month for another low to form. Could be a higher low, could be a lower low, but the window of weakness is open into June. And history shows us that it can stay weak into mid to late June. Now, what's going on in mid to late June, you ask? Well, the next Fed meeting is mid-June, but the Fed meeting is not the important meeting. Even though it'll be Kevin Wars's first meeting as chair, and it'll be important, it's not the main thing to watch. The main thing to watch in mid-June is not the Fed, but it's the Bank of Japan because the Bank of Japan is likely going to raise rates in June. There's a good chance, not it's not a sure thing, there's a good chance they will raise rates in June. And there is precedent for Bitcoin forming a low right after they raise rates. August of 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates, or July was July, and then Bitcoin bottomed like a week later in early August. Okay.
So, what if Bitcoin sells off into June? People get scared, and then we rally again in July, and then we go through this whole process once again. And I mean, it is a, it is a brutal process of of like, you know, and I, I think this is why bear markets are so mentally taxing is because it doesn't matter if you call it ahead of time, right? It doesn't matter if you think a counter-trend rally is going to happen. If you ultimately think the low is not in, people will hate you during that counter-trend rally. So, if I were to sit here, let's just go through an example. If I were to sit here and say that Bitcoin finds the low in June, but it's not the low. It doesn't matter. People, people will look at that. They'll, they'll think, "All right, well, I'm not going to buy because Ben Ben said it's not the low." And then if Bitcoin rallies in July, like it typically does, then they will get mad at me.
So, I want to be clear about something. Usually, the way to be successful at Bitcoin is to ignore it for the first half of the midterm year. Pretend like it doesn't exist. I do a pretty bad job of that because I talk about it every single day. But I can assure you, if I did not have a YouTube channel, I wouldn't be looking at Bitcoin every day, right? I, I'd be forgetting that it exists for the first half of the midterm year. Because if you look at six-month candles, if you look at six-month candles, look at the first half of 2014, Bitcoin dropped. The first half of 2018, Bitcoin dropped. The first half of 2022, Bitcoin dropped. So far, the first half of 2026, Bitcoin dropped. It always drops in the first half of midterm years. So, typically, you're better off just ignoring Bitcoin in the first half of midterm years, fading the bulls, not falling for the counter-trend rallies, and just saying, you know what, I'm going to wait, and I'm going to bide my time. I'm going to wait for the second half of the year. So, you don't have to buy the bottom to make money. No one knows where the bottom is, but you don't have to buy the bottom and make money.
I think as you get into the second half of the year, I have to ask myself, you know, do I want to go through this process again where people dunk on me left and right in a potential future counter-trend rally in July just for the market to unwind one final time going into Q4? And I don't know if it's worth it. You know, maybe there's some degree of like, why not just call it a day after a potential June low and and say, you know what, maybe we go lower in Q4, but I'm not going to sit here and, and, you know, argue it every single day. The truth is is I probably will because I can't help myself, but there is a big part of me that wishes I wouldn't, to be honest. Um, so let's go back to so to so where we are right now.
The window of weakness will likely persist for a few more weeks, probably into June. Mid to late June seems about right. And if that happens, then I would be looking for a counter-trend rally potentially in July. Again, these are not tradable ideas. I'm not saying go trade this idea. I'm just saying what I think is the path to the actual low. And so one way it could play out is Bitcoin drops down to that 200-day moving average, maybe even goes below it, maybe sweeps the prior low, kind of like it did in 2018 where it swept the low, bounces into July, right? And then we wait and figure out if Bitcoin gets the final drop in Q4 like it always does. Does it get the final drop at the end of the year? And unfortunately, we can't speed this process up. It doesn't matter what happens between now and Q4. Until we actually get to Q4, there's no way to know. So, Bitcoin could go down to say $58K and then bounce back to $70 or $80K, and we're still not going to know for sure if there won't just be another capitulation in Q4 when there's always a capitulation in Q4.
And I have to be honest with you. I mean, so far, the lows line up with 2018 almost exactly. The low in in February, the lower high in May, the higher low in late March, early April. It, it's almost a carbon copy of it with the exception that the March high in 2018 was a higher high compared to the what happened later, whereas that sorry, the the May high was a lower high compared to March, whereas this time the May high was a higher high compared to March. That's the only difference. But if this plays out right, then you'd be looking for a low in June followed by another high in July. High. Now, could that high be a higher high again? Like, you know, is it possible that that Bitcoin does something like this where it, it's putting in these like, you know, higher highs where it, it rallies or sorry, like drops all the way back down here, rallies back up, people get super bulled up, and then you get the final drop into Q4, and then the bull market begins? Maybe, right? I don't know. But I, I can assure I, I can assure you, if we go put in a new low in June, um, and it's late June, you don't want to be panic selling your Bitcoin then would be my guess because the market might rip you a new one in July.
The market basically ripped my face off in July of 2022. Actually, that's not true. That's not true. The market, where did I get wrong? So, in 2022, I, no, in 2022, I thought we were going to have a rally, but I was like two weeks too early, right? Two weeks too early. Um, and so by the time we had the rally, right, like it just basically rallied back up to where it was. So, that was that was the the mistake I made last cycle in, um, in 2022 is, you know, thinking that the rally might occur in June, but it didn't really start until July, right? Because like in in June on June 13th, the market still didn't go anywhere. You see, and the rally didn't really get going until July. And I should have, I should have looked at that. I mean, I should have looked at like 2018 and saw the rally didn't really start going until July as well, um, and been a little bit more open-minded to it taking until July.
But right now, this just looks like every other every other bear market rally where you, you rally on up into the 200-day moving average. Uh, you rally up into that bear market resistance band, and then you just kind of sell off. If you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2014, you can see it kind of came up, and then ultimately the next low that occurred, this was an October low. Back then, we actually went lower into January of 2015, but you can see when that October low occurred. In 2022, you can see that we had this big drop right here. This was the June drop. We, we're approaching it now, right? This was the big June drop in 2018. You can see we had this June drop. And I think if you compare 2026 to 2018, the lows line up. Your February low, your higher low in March, late March, early April, your your high in in late May, and then you sell off into June. The only difference between 2018 and 2026 is there's more volatility in 2018 than 2026. And it makes sense that there's more volatility. There was more volatility back then because Bitcoin had a euphoric rally, whereas this time it did not have a euphoric rally. Therefore, there's less volatility to the downside. If you think the markets are dead now, imagine 2018 where after we came down to the June low, the market went sideways at $6,000 for like four or five months. I mean, look at the chart, right? I mean, look at this. Literally from day 18. So, basically from July until November, the market did almost absolutely nothing. And then the windfall occurred in Q4. It reset the cycle, and then the bull market started.
So, we can go through the mental gymnastics like people like to do and say, "Well, if everyone's expecting it, then it's not going to happen." But, I mean, we talked about the top being in Q4. And everyone was like, "Well, if the four-year cycle, if everyone thinks the four-year cycle is going to happen, then it won't." And Bitcoin topped anyways. Who's to say? Why can't it happen? Like, why, why can't there be a low in Q4? If we get another rally, I mean, I'm sure people will will argue that, all right, well, if you waited until Q4, you're missing out, but I mean, you know, we've had July rallies in every midterm year, and they still never led to the low.
So, I gotta, I, I got to think right now, and this is subject to change, but I have to think right now that the next low likely forms in June, and there probably will be a rally kind of like early Q3, July, August, which would then set up the final drop into sort of the September, October time frame. And if that plays out and we're sitting here in Q4 and Bitcoin is is is trading at a low price, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of people that are bullish now that are going to be bearish then, but that'll probably be the time to pivot. So, I, we'll just, I'm taking this one one day at a time, right? And again, you know, if you're struggling with this, just remember there's other markets. Stocks are at all-time highs. International markets are at all-time highs. Emerging markets are doing well. You know, energy is doing great. Manufacturing is doing great. There's other ways you can be invested in midterm years. You don't just have to sit in cash waiting for crypto.
But if you are only interested in crypto, then just know the best course of action for Bitcoin has been to always fade it for the first half of the midterm year and then start looking for deals in the second half. In the first half, just assume that every quote-unquote deal that presents itself is a fake low. But in the second half of the year, that's normally when the low actually forms. And sometimes it doesn't occur until like the very end of the year. So, those are my thoughts. That's the window of weakness. If you guys like the content, subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, check out the sale on ITC Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Again, we're going to be ending that sale relatively soon. And I will see you next time. Bye.