Transcription
Drafting players on good offenses in fantasy football is a cheat code. And and the more you figure that out, the more success you have with fantasy football. I try to really zero in on good offenses. When I drafted my fantasy [music] leagues, I've done it in the Flock League for two years now trying to draft guys in good offenses. We had a lot of requests [music] like, "Hey, can you do offensive coordinator rankings or offense rankings or things like that?" These are the best fantasy football offenses of [music] 2026. But we're not just taking the Vegas projections. We're not just taking the new offensive coordinator projections. We're going to incorporate three things into these rankings so we can tell you which players to target on which offenses when you're drafting your fantasy leagues this year.
We're taking into account volume, so how much fantasy production an offense generates. So, it's a blend of scoring pace, how many passes there are because passes passing creates fantasy yards, catches, not just points, right? Um, and then we're going to focus on the second thing, concentration here. So, how much that production funnels into a few draftable players? Okay, so how concentrated is it or is it spread out and it kind of caps everybody else's ceiling? Then the last thing is how many of the offensive touchdowns get vultured by quarterbacks, which allows uh running backs not to be scoring touchdowns because that taps their ceiling as well. Now, they're weighted in this order. Volume is the most important. Concentration is the second most. And then we throw a little bit of weight for quarterback vulturing in there, but we don't weigh it too heavy because again, the quarterback that's on that offense is scoring.
So, I just So, I want to just start by presenting this uh this little chart here for you. The x-axis here is the projected fantasy volume this year. That's scoring pace and pass rate. So we're getting this from a number of Vegas projections and NFL projections from NFL insiders and experts and things like that. Uh and then the y-axis is the usage concentration. So this is the top three targets and the leadback share of the volume in the offense, right? So how productive is the volume in the offense or how much production is in the offense as a whole? And then how much is that being funneled through the guys you're actually drafting in fantasy football? This is how we find which offenses we want to we want to draft. I first first impressions here. the top right corner, which is where you want to live, then really the top right quadrant. What you notice is Cincinnati and LA pretty much all the way at the top of this draft, right? Those are going to be the two best offenses to invest in this year. You've got guys like Detroit and Dallas who have insane levels of volume, but they're, you know, they spread it around a little bit more. You have somebody like Philadelphia who doesn't have as much volume, but it's very, very concentrated, which is why you've had a low production fantasy offense in Philadelphia the last couple years and still been able to invest in Devonte Smith, AJ Brown, Jaylen Herz, and Saquon Barkley because it's so concentrated, right? They're maybe them and Cincinnati are the most concentrated offenses in the league.
So, we're going to go through and let's start the rankings of every offense this year to invest in for fantasy football. We'll go through each offense. We'll tell you the players that we're obviously targeting in all of these offenses, and you can use this to figure out who you want to target in certain ranges of your drafts in fantasy football. Okay, so let's start with tier one. This is the elite offense tier. These are the ones where uh the these two offenses again, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams, they clearly separated themselves on the field. They've got elite volume. It's concentrated, right? And they've got good, clean goal line environments, and you saw that with the Rams last year. I mean, these are projected to be two of the top offenses in the league this year.
For the Bengals, you've got Burrow, Chase Higgins, and Chase Brown. Um, and it's also Dan Pitcher, offensive coordinator, third straight year for him. So, there's continuity there from an offensive schematic perspective. And you are going to have, again, Joe Burrow, when he's on the field, T. Higgins and Jamar Chase are both productive. Not to mention, Chase Brown is more productive with Joe Burrow on the field. It's top-end volume. It's a passing game that's funneled through literally Chase and Higgins. The other guys there do not do much at all. It's one of the most concentrated offenses in the league. And Joe Burrow doesn't take any rushing touchdowns. It is the perfect offense to invest in. Chase Higgins, Chase Brown, and Burrow are all pretty good investments this year. Obviously, we like the wide receivers and running backs at their current price, but this is probably the cleanest fantasy offense in football one you can invest in and have zero qualms about, right? So, Chase, Burrow, and Higgins, or sorry, Chase Higgins, and Chase Brown are the three guys that are the main the main benefactors there.
And then the Los Angeles Rams, right? You've got the McVey and Stafford continuity. We've have how many years of those guys now? You got Puka Nakua and Dvonte Adams. They suck up the majority of the targets in that offense. You have some random tight ends, random wide receivers, right? That that that will occasionally take some catches because it's such a good offense. But those guys make up most of the passing work, the receiving work rather. Kairen Williams has the bulk of the batfield and he he really does own the touchdowns because Blake Corm uh he does get some early down work, but typically the guy getting the touchdowns is going to be Kyron Williams. And Kiren's still been productive like each of the last three years. So there's elite volume there. The the targets are very concentrated and again Matt Stafford does not vulture touchdowns. That's good for Kairen and it's good for the receivers. You saw it good for Devonte Adams last year and it was good for Kairen because Blake Corm was getting early down snaps. You still didn't have to worry about it too much. So last year they had the best output in the league for fantasy football. This year they're projected to be the highest scoring offense in the NFL again. So they are again in this elite tier as we drop down to tier two.
>> Yeah, tier two is going to start with a couple of really high-powered offenses in the NFC. uh the Dallas Cowboys who are consistently year in and year out behind alongside Dak Prescott um providing all that high volume and in just an offense that is known to consistently be one of the fastest pace offenses um that again is always going to have a heavy passing attack and with that tempo that's just going to consistently result in a bunch of fantasy production on a week-to-week basis for guys like Lamb and Pickin specifically who can one moment be at three points halfway through the game and then end with 25 because that's how often they end up getting their hands on the ball um during you know any any given week. So I know this all too well. Last year in the flock league I lost a week against Sal because of George Pickins by like.7 points because Pickkins legit went from like three points heading into the half to all of a sudden he had 35. Um and that's just the way it goes with with both of these guys. Lamb and Pickins can both be productive. um when when you look at their ADP and where both of these wide receivers are going specifically in draft, CD Lamb um has dipped down a little bit compared to where he's used to going in like the early mid first. So now he's going late first while George Pickkins is uh settling at the 23 turn most consistently. And I think that's fair where both of those guys are being ranked. Um George Pickins a little more touchdown dependent than CD Lamb generally is. Um but both of these guys can be productive at the same time. I wouldn't take last year and say that, oh, their splits means that one of them is going to take a massive hit this season. CD Lamb could have been more productive than he was last year. Um, he just dropped multiple touchdowns and he had the worst seasons of drops >> generally than than we've ever seen from CD Lamb his entire career. So, um, both of these guys can average 16 plus points per game this year. And I don't even I I'm not even worried about it honestly because Dak provides that much volume and the target volume is so hyperfocused on those two guys. Um Jake Ferguson is always a sneaky selection every year as well. Ferguson kind of had his um coming out party last year and uh that really paid off for a lot of people that faded tight end in their in their reddraft leagues because he ended up being a consistent tight end one that you could plug in every single week and feel good that your floor was going to be relatively high with the red zone opportunities that he would get in that offense in such a high-scoring high-powered um machine there.
So then you look at the run game, I I I mean with the passing game, you have so much attention allocated to these top two receiving threats and Pickins and CD Lamb now that that kind of just opens up the middle of the field and opens up the box for Javvante Williams to do what he wants to do. And Shotti's not afraid to run the ball when they get in the red zone either. or goal line touches. Those will easily and happily go to Javvante Williams, which is why he was so productive last season. I know he finished the the last part of the season pretty slow. Part of that was because he was a little bit banged up, but um I mean, you look at his touchdowns through week 10. He had two touchdowns in week one. one in week two, one in week four, one in week five, one in week seven, uh two in week eight, and then you saw three touchdowns total from weeks 11 to 18, which is why again his production ceiling was a little bit more cap. But look at that floor. Even with four touchdowns total from weeks 11 to 18, um three on the ground and one in the air, he had 10, 12, 17, 14, 15, six, and 11 points. He only had one single digit game during that stretch. You just didn't see any 20-point games. So, he's a very safe selection this year. A guy that's going in the fourth round. I think he's very reliable. And then Dak Prescott, of course, if you just want a high passing volume quarterback that's going to be cheaper than someone like Joe Burrow. Um you you you can absolutely take a shot on him. His floor is just going to be a little bit lower than normal.
Then you got Detroit. Um Alman Ross St. Brown and Jamir Gibbs are going to be productive there every single year. They're certified first round picks every single year. Sam Leaporta, I think, is a little bit sneaky this year. to the offensive coordinator that they have this season was brought over from Arizona last year who if you remember Trey McBride's amazing season and them implementing the tight ends like to an elite level. I'm not saying Sam Leaport is going to do the same thing this season but he's a sneaky dark horse when he's not being priced where he was a couple years ago after his rookie year which was a really impressive year. Um Sam Leaport is a great red zone threat. David Montgomery now out of the picture. So Jir Gibbs um is you know going to maintain the production that he's had without question this season. and Isaiah Pachco might get a little bit of work similar to what we've seen from Monty the last couple of years. And then Jared Goff is just oh so steady as a low-end um quarterback one. Then Jameson Williams uh who finishes a low-end wide receiver one last year. So boom bust every single week. You love the highs, hate the lows, you got to live with it. He's a flex option. He's a great flex option. Um not reliable, but he can win you some weeks. He'll lose you some weeks, too, though.
Um Philadelphia is actually going to be in this conversation as well. It's not because they're known for having a super hyperproductive offense from a volume perspective, but their stars always produce and they always score points. Namely, AJ Brown, Dvont Smith, Saquon Barkley, and even Dallas Goddard at times who even though he's old, has been very productive when he's healthy and on the field. AJ Brown's now out of that situation and Dvonte Smith is going to be, you know, the focal point there. Um, but Mai Lemon is now being brought in too. He's going to get some opportunities in a Shawn Manion offense now where they're expected to line up under center more or Jaylen Herz is. They're expected to throw the ball more. Hopefully that means more volume for those wide receivers as a whole. Mainly Devonte Smith since he's the season proven veteran there. And maybe some more dump offs in the air for uh Saquon Barkley too, who really struggled between the tackles last year because their offensive line was not near as good as it was the previous season when they won the Super Bowl. I think there's going to be a healthy in between from like the 14 points per game we saw last season to the 22 we saw in 2024. Um Squan should be a pretty solid running back one this year as long as he stays healthy.
And then you flip over to Baltimore that has a totally new looking um team this season or or or coaching staff this year. But their offense is going to be relatively similar. You've got Zay Flowers, Dererick Henry, Lamar Jackson are the stars of the show. They drafted a couple of guys. Um, you've got Rashad Baitman obviously who's more of a waiver level player, but Flowers is going to get a majority of the receiving work there. Mark Andrews is a little sneaky this year to see his volume increase now that Isaiah Likely is out of that offense. And then Derrick Henry is just going to continue to do Derrick Henry things. He has zero receiving upside whatsoever. But it doesn't matter because every time they get into the red zone, they give him the ball and he scores touchdowns. He had an incredible [snorts] touchdown run um in the second half of last season. I owned him in the first half and he like couldn't get touchdowns worth a darn and he was not getting enough touches and then they just decided to run the crap out of him at the end of the year like you should with Derrick Henry. He gets better towards the end of the year every single season. He's a unicorn, 32 years old, still going strong. Lamar Jackson, expect him to bounce back this season. He was banged up all of last year with a hamstring injury. Didn't look near as mobile as he usually does or as we're used to seeing from him. I think that's not going to change this year in an offense that again is going to be so hyperfocused in on those two focal points with Derrick Henry and Flowers in the ground and in the air and then maybe sprinkle in some Mark Andrews as well.
Then we've got the uh Chicago Bears with Ben Johnson calling the plays. You saw how explosive that offense is capable of being. Um it's the debate of all time this year. Is it going to be Luther Burton? Is it going to be Roman Dunce? Is it going to be Coulson Lovelin? Is it going to be all three? It's not going to be all three. It could be none of them if they all score like 12 points per game. But the reality is from a volume perspective, what you saw from Kayla Williams last year and how much he threw the ball, you you just got to believe that there's going to be at least one of those three guys that is going to have a dynamite year this season. Coulson Leland, I think, is probably the safest pick, but if you're taking a shot on a wide receiver, Rome or Burton, I think both of them can be very complimentary in the air as well. on just the way that they run routes, where they operate on the field, the way Ben Johnson likes to utilize him. Bordon maybe more of the gadget guy. Romo Dunce maybe lining up more consistently on the outside with the touchdown threat. Then DeAndre Swift um who as long as he's healthy is going to get plenty of touches. He's very explosive. The most efficient DeAndre Swift that we've seen in a long time was last year um with Ben Johnson in Chicago. Um and then you got Manung Man behind him too, who averaged like nine points per game, nine 10 points per game, something like that. he gets some red zone touches, too. While Swift has like 14 points per game, Manungai can actually be a decent week in and week out flex factor if you're absolutely desperate. So, there are so many moving parts in this offense and it's going to be really exciting to see what Ben Johnson can do with these guys this season as they develop.
Tampa Bay um has a little bit of a new picture this season with Godwin fully healthy. Ibuka coming into year two with a year of experience in his belt. Baker Mayfield is now fully healthy. no Mike Evans, which means really you're probably going to see more concentrated target volume with Ibuka and Godwin specifically. Maybe sprinkle in a little bit of Jaylen McMillan. And then in the backfield, you've got Bucky Irving who's coming back healthy as well. A bunch of these guys got banged up last season. Bucky Irving hopefully can look closer to how he looked his rookie season than he did last year. Um, and maybe he can get a little more receiving work um, comparable to what he did his rookie season as well. But don't sleep on Kenneth Gainwell as a nice little handcuff option, too. He could end up getting a decent amount of work like he did in Pittsburgh, more than people expect. Um he he could end up being a guy that people really regret not taking a shot on in the later rounds of this year's draft. If he really eats into Bucky Irving's workload, then the Colts are going to be at the tail end here. They are the biggest riskiest question mark of the top 10 offenses here in this conversation and it's because Daniel Jones is coming off in Achilles. The Colts kind of just suck sometimes and Michael Pitman is now out of that offense. So, they're really relying on what Tyler Warren is able to do jumping from year 1 to year two. Can he take another step in his development? Can Josh DS really fall into a role um in in 12 personnel sets when he usually wasn't present in that formation last year? Because again, they like to run a lot of heavy personnel with two wide receivers on the field. It's going to be Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Can Alec Pierce get over his ankle injury that he had this past offseason where he had surgery and is going to miss a good chunk of training camp? There are a lot of questions to be answered here, not to mention Daniel Jones, Achilles, Jonathan Taylor needs to stay fully healthy for that offense to operate and be as explosive as it usually is.
But if all those guys are clicking on all cylinders at the same time, you're looking at a top three to four offense in the NFL. >> And the reason the Colts are so high up here is because the concentration through Jonathan Taylor is what's scoring them that way because the passing attack concentration is pretty spread out. It was Alec Pierce, Michael Pitman, Tyler Warren, and some of Josh downs last year. And so it was pretty distributed, but Jonathan Taylor is like the bellcow of the NFL. Like he gets he is the truest bellcow there is in the NFL. And so that's why they're sitting here. Um again, not a super high output offense, but in terms of concentration, they do score well. And I do think that it's actually going to be a more concentrated passing game this year as well.
Now we get to tier three. This is the matchup dependent middle here. And this is a ginormous tier because again, all of these either have production output questions or concentration questions. And it's just going to depend week to week who they are playing, what defense they are facing. And so let's go through these. Again, this is all the middle. There's nothing we can really do to separate these guys. And so this is really where it's like we don't have a problem drafting them, but they're you're not going to target them because of the offense, right? By the way, it would be really nice if you had a tool that told you how good the offense was projected to be when you're drafting so you could remember all this, right? That's what the algorithm does. I have in the algorithm. I I put it in there for myself for the Flock League draft where these guys rank in projected points per game in terms of their total offensive output because I like to focus on good offenses. So, if you want access to the algorithm, you want do have that while you draft, links down below. Season pass code domain will unlock it. Every league setting, every platform and personalized rankings and strategy for your draft, your platform as you go through the draft, the algorithm will help you determine what the best strategy is for your draft. And so, you can check it out against the season pass with code domain.
The Falcons will be first. very concentrated, right? Drake London, Bejian Robinson, Tua is not going to rush the ball a whole lot. And uh now you got Sfansky here. You got Sfansky, you got Ree that come from Cleveland. So the concentration is definitely going to be real. It's going to have pits in there as well, I think, a little bit. The only drag here with the Falcons is Vegas projects like them to be modest in terms of scoring. Their Vegas projection isn't super high. It's definitely and you know, it's a more conservative offensive regime. And so I think that's going to be one thing you have to be careful with here. you can draft the Stars, London and Bejon, with with a lot of confidence here. Um, and if you think people are too low on this offense, they could easily jump a tier.
Then you have the 49ers here. Uh, when Chris McCaffrey's healthy, he is both the leadback and he's one of the top targets. He had over 100 targets last year. So, this is the ultimate concentration play, right? This is one of the most concentrated offenses in the entire league. Uh, you can see that on on the chart as well. I mean, this is just an offense that is funneling everything through a couple of these guys. And uh and that's what you're looking at with this with this San Francisco offense. They obviously have Mike Evans that they added. They added George Kittle as well. Perie doesn't really have any rushing touchdowns. So pretty much the outlook of like guys like Persaw and Mike Evans to some extent. George Kittle is going to be dependent on if Chris McCaffrey is healthy because McCaffrey is healthy. The concentration of the offense through McCaffrey is a huge thing. But again, this is a fine offense to invest in.
The Seahawks kind of the same thing. JSN, he's an alpha wide receiver. Pretty much the entire passing game rotates around him there. They have Rasheed Chi as a field stretcher. Sam Darnold's not going to rush for any touchdowns. And really the wild card in this offense this year is going to be the ground game, right? You got Kenneth Walker gone. You have Jiren Price that they drafted in the first round this year. You also have a couple of other random running backs like like Hani that's in there, Emanuel Wilson's in there. And you have a new offensive coordinator and Floyd that takes over after Clint Kubak leaves for the Raiders. And so we don't know a whole lot about the scheme, but in terms of the usable value rank last year in 2025, they were actually sixth. So they were they were projected or last year they were pretty good. They're projected to be a little bit below where they were last year. And I think I feel pretty comfortable with that.
Then we talk about the Chargers. A lot of people are going to be surprised. I think the Chargers aren't higher than this, and I totally understand this, but let's get into it. It's Justin Herbert. New scheme is obviously Mike McDaniel's wide zone offense. He brings in from Miami. Um, and we have a Marian Hampton now. And so I think this is going to be a fairly concentrated offense this year. more concentrated than it has been in years past. Um I I think I think Amari Hampton is a clear lead back. I really don't think he's a committee guy. I think Lad is the alpha there. I think he's the clear wide receiver one. So I do think that is uh I I think that Harbaugh is really the thing here because Harbaugh likes to run a very deliberate ball control pace. The offense is typically pretty efficient, but it can be slow. And so that kind of meets Mike McDaniel's, you know, all over the place uh fast, high-scoring offense. So which one wins out? It's going to be very interesting because again when you're talking about a a typical Harbaugh offense um a typical Jim Harbaugh offense versus a Mike McDaniel offense that um is kind of a circus. I'll be very interested to see uh what which one of those factors actually wins this year.
We go down to the Chiefs. Uh you do get Eric Bieniemy back. I do like this for the Chiefs. Um but the eternal Chiefs problem is that they have an elite quarterback and Mahomes just spreads the ball around too much since Tyreek left. Who have been the wide receivers that have been like legitimate fantasy studs there? None of them. Rice when he's been healthy for the four game stretches, he's been healthy. Kelsey, obviously, but there are huge questions here because again, Mahomes spreads the ball around so much because he's so good. You also do have Kenneth Walker. He's a clear lead back in my opinion. He's not a bellcow because I don't think he can handle that, but I don't think it's a pure committee signing Kenneth Walker out of free agency. We have him as the running back 13 in our rankings. The targets are still going to be pretty scattered between Worthy Rice and Kelsey. Um, so it probably can be frustrating. I do think Rice gets a lot of that concentration when he's healthy, but Mahomes is really the guy that makes this go around. And again, it's going to lead to a bunch of random targets for guys like Jaylen Royals in that offense, right? And so it's going to be a lot of Randos that get targets in this offense. And so it's not a highly concentrated offense. We'll be interested to see what the production does this year.
Uh the Vikings last year, they weren't there was very little usable value last year. Uh they were 28th among among fantasy offenses last year. The quarterback situation was pretty much the primary reason for that. And now you bring in Kyler Murray. Justin Jefferson, we expect him to bounce back this year. He pretty much keeps that passing game pretty concentrated. He is the lead alpha guy there. One of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Uh the only caution in this offense is that Murray could score some rushing touchdowns and that should that could vulture some touchdowns for Jordan Ma from Jordan Mason potentially. Um that being said, the Vikings grade out a lot better than they did last year because of Kyler and we're not drafting a whole lot of Mason or Jones anyways and their ADP is low enough to where I don't think it's going to matter too much.
The Broncos are interesting because this is a middle tier offense. Um really once you're talking about the backfield being read correctly because Dobbins and Harvey like when you're looking at those guys when they were on the field together, they were severely capping each other's ceiling last last year and they and they basically traded off in terms of when they were healthy last year. Um they they have one of the most even splits of any backfield in the league. Now you do have Jaylen Wadd coming in here. Denver paid a pretty price for Jaylen Wadd and I do think that the passing game is going to be pretty concentrated between Wadd and Sutton this year and so that's good for their passing game and again they had they led the league in passing attempts last year. Bonick threw the ball 612 times last year and so that's good for them. Uh the the the rushing concentration definitely brings down their overall score here, but the passing game concentration is going to be good. Um it's definitely Yeah, it's definitely going to be a fine offense to invest in my opinion.
You've got the Patriots. Obviously the big the big story here is the AJ Brown trade, right? Um it it's Stfan Diggs. I don't know if he's going to play for the New England Patriots, but he probably is going to end up there. Um and now Drake May has his number one wide receiver. And this is one of the more concentrated wide receiver rooms in the league now. I mean, because last year it was so spread out because there was really no alpha. Stfan Diggs was the guy there and he actually had a pretty good fantasy season. Drake AJ Brown is the best guy in that room and it's not even close now. So, uh, the offsets here are going to be Drake May could rush for a lot of touchdowns and the volume is projected to be a little bit lower than it was last year. So, uh, again, it's going to be interesting, but AJ Brown definitely helps and that becomes a more concentrated offense.
And then again, moving down the list here, the New Orleans Saints, um, Travis ETN comes in, Kamar is probably going to get some receptions there. I don't know how concentrated the running back room is going to be. It's really hard to say, but you have Jordan Tyson come in, and so is clearly the alpha there, but Tyson's going to be a really good number, too. And so the concentration could honestly decrease this year where you have this more spread around. Um at the same time I do expect everything to go between Tyson Alve and ETN and maybe Kamar and that is good. So so even though there are lots of guys that could produce um I do think that this could be a team that ends up being a pretty good offense high pace offense. They've run lots of plays. Tyler Shuck was really good last year. Kellmore offenses typically are high output. So I like him here in this middle tier. Um and and definitely a pretty good set of options there to start this year in your fantasy teams.
Got the Texans here. You've got Strad and Nico. Obviously, Montgomery comes to handle the early down stuff and the goal line stuff. Uh it's the volume's not great there, and that's the thing. They don't have a ton of fantasy production. Uh the the concentration's also mid and so it's just a very mid offense here to be honest with you. The Cardinals um come off the bottom this year because they were last year pretty bad, but you'll remember, you know, Trey McBride was good last year. Michael Wilson was productive last year at times. And you have Jacobe Brousette who honestly was a big reason that the offense last year was productive from a fantasy perspective. And so you bring him back, you have Jeremiah Love coming in and he projects as a true bellcow in the NFL in my opinion. You have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. And I think if you can if you don't see Michael Wilson produced this year, then you could be talking about some good concentration for this team as well. Um the the reason that we have him this low is is basically Vegas is super duper bearish on their total output from a points perspective. They have the worst point projection in the league. Um, but the skill there in terms of the individual players, I mean, yeah, I I it's it's they definitely have some talented players. They're gonna be drafted high in fantasy football this year.
The Bills come in at 21. Again, this is the headline case for why fantasy volume is not the same as points because Buffalo scored the fifth most fantasy points in the league last year, but they graded far lower in usable value because it was so spread out. The fuller volume measure pushes them down further. They lean run heavy. They spread the passing game. So, a lot of the scoring never becomes distributed. Catches and yards. fantasy rosters actually even capture, right? I mean, DJ Moore definitely helps there, but this is why we're more out on DJ Moore than Consensus. No one's a lock in this offense except for James Cook. And even then, Josh Allen runs for a lot of touchdowns in this offense. So, it's a very, very good NFL offense, but they even got Tai Johnson there like getting receiving work. It's a very good NFL offense that is spread around better than almost any offense in the NFL. Otherwise, if this were a concentrated offense, they would be in the they would be in the top tier here. like they just spread the they they spread the fantasy points around there more than any other team in the NFL. That's why they grade down here.
Uh the Green Bay Packers, the perennial landmine, right? Uh the passing game is the most spread out passing game in football. You got Romeo Dubs, he was the target leader last year. He went to New England. Josh Jacobs, obviously he's going to be a bellcow and so that keeps him draftable. But the receiver room is a who's going to score this week type of receiver room. And that is honestly what dings the most. It's good volume, but it's most of the time it's wasted on too many mouths. And that's a perfect example of why we're not in on like guys like Christian Watson this year is because every week it's somebody different in that offense. And then the Tennessee Titans. Um you know they got Brian Dable there, you obviously hire Robert Salah and you've got Juell Robinson, Carnell Tate, you still got Calvin Ridley there. And so Cam Ward has a lot more weapons to work with, but the volume is projected to not be very high. The Vegas output is projected not to be very high. Uh and you do have Cam Ward who has a lot of goal line rushing ability in this offense and that could vulture some of the running back production, which is why Tony Pard um is the lead back there, but even he is not getting a ton of the concentration in the offense. And so, another offense that we would classify as mid in the last the last team in this tier of uh middling uh offenses to invest in fantasy football.
Then looking at the last couple of tiers here, the fourth tier is kind of just a bunch of worse than middling offenses, but not the worst of the worst offenses where like any given matchup, if it's the right matchup, they could be very productive. Um, but it's not really a unit that you're going to consistently want to build around. It's going to start with the Giants at 24. Jackson Dart paired with Malik Neighbors for hopefully more than half the season, but really if Jackson Dart is paired with like Isaiah likely and Malachi Fields and Darius Sllayton, it looks a lot more ugly for him as a passer. Not to mention Matt Negi is the one that's uh calling the plays here, he's operating his scheme under John Harbaugh, who is definitely a run first type of guy and is going to want to establish the run. Um, look, they they added some veteran wide receivers there. Um, please for the love, do not say Odell Beckham Jr. Mhm. >> Um [clears throat] Dart is probably going to get a heavy share of the rushing scores or rushing production alongside Cam Scataboo. That's that's what I would guess and that's what I would assume Dart's a majority of production is going to come from. Luckily, we've seen this in a Matt Eggy offense with high rushing upside quarterbacks with low passing volume be like very productive. Obviously, Mahomes just did this last year. He was actually a below average passer last year. Um, but he was a top six quarterback when he was healthy because he ran the ball so much. So, um, Dart's a little bit interesting this season. I think Scot was honestly the safest option in that offense this season and that ain't saying much.
Jacksonville is going to be in this conversation as well. Lim Cohen a great play caller from a fantasy perspective. We'll see what these guys can actually do. Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas um, is probably expected to be like schematically the alpha there who's going to play the true X. Um, Travis Hunter is going to be interesting. We'll see how much work he can get in there offensively, but Parker Washington and Jacobe Myers are really going to make things very murky there offensively when it comes to target volume. It might be below average target volume for every receiver in that offense, honestly. But Lawrence is going to vulture like 41% of the rushing touchdowns. If we can take last year as any indication, I know there's been a lot of coach speak and a lot of hype about Bashel Tutin heading into this season. Um, but you might be looking at a running back committee this year, which is going to result in a lot of, again, mediocre fantasy productive assets.
Pittsburgh is going to be the 26 team here. Aaron Rogers returning for another year where he's just steadily mid. Um, it's going to be a pocket passing game again. They do bring in Michael Pitman um, who's probably going to play big slot there and move DK Metaf back to exclusively on the outside, which is really the role that he should be playing. There's going to be really not a ton of impressive volume output there most likely from a passing game perspective. Um you've got Jaylen Warren there at the running back position um with Rico Dowel who they paid and then you've got like depthwise Kale Johnson, Eli Hyenrike. It's probably going to be another committee backfield again this year um like it was last season with Warren alongside Kenny Gainwell. I think ultimately this is expected to be a pretty low output offense. Even though it is going to look quite a bit different schematically um than it has in the last couple of years um especially in Pittsburgh last year with Arthur Smith calling plays. This is going to be a Mike McCarthy offense. It's just not going to be near as explosive as we've been used to seeing with Aaron Rogers in his prime.
Washington also going to be in this conversation. Jaden Daniels coming off the injury is going to be the one that drives the offense. He just has to stay healthy. Um and that receiver room is so unsettling beyond Terry McLaren. that really Terry McLaren is the only guy that we're going to be counting on there. Kingsberry is the architect of this offense and now David Blau is coming in. He's an in-house hire technically. I don't know if the scheme really is going to change much from what Kingsberry did to what Blau does. He just might try to be a little more versatile in the play calling that he does um and and what he wants to prioritize there. Whereas Kingsberry is just a guy that wants to sling it and push it downfield constantly. Um hopefully that means more running back volume for like Jaka Crossy Merritt, maybe Rashad White if you're into that kind of thing this year. But again, it's that's that's pretty ugly when you're talking about personnel. This is one of the worst looking offenses from a talent perspective beyond Jaden Daniels that you're really looking at this year for relevant offenses because it's Terry McLaren and then really nobody else.
Tier five is what we're going to finish out here. A lot of really, really ugly situations. A couple of teams have some promise, the Raiders. Totally new looking offense, totally new head coach. Clint Kubak coming off of a Super Bowl win with Seattle. Brock Bowers coming back fully healthy. Kirk Cousins is expected to be the starter for a good chunk of this season. Um, he's probably going to feed the crap out of Brock Bowers this year. So, expect a solid season for Bowowers, better than what what it was last year, more similar to what you saw his rookie season. Ashton Jensy going to get a lot of bellcow work. Um, don't listen to the committee talk that Kubak's talking about. every running back room in the NFL is a committee except for Jonathan Taylor and CMC. Um the the anchor of the Raiders um in this tier is is absolutely going to be their volume. If if they're going to have multiple productive guys, it's going to be from the constant targets that Bowowers gets and the constant touches that Ashton Jensy gets. And beyond that, it's probably not going to be pretty.
Um, with the Jets, can Gino Smith be better than Justin Fields and provide more volume so that Garrett Wilson can be productive and so that Bree Hall can get enough checkdowns and maybe be more efficient on the ground than what we've seen the last couple of years? That's what we have to see. Another volume projection type of thing where it's like if the volume goes up in the air for Garrett Wilson, he can be productive if he stays healthy. And um if the offense is not one-dimensional like it was last year, then Bruce Hall can maybe be more productive than he was in 2025.
Carolina um we're we're basically depending entirely on what Bryce Young's development is going to look like heading into this season and if Ted McMillan can break out. Chuba Hover has has like a concentratedish upper hand on the backfield, but like Jonathan Brooks might actually get some opportunities there. Rico Dattle did last year. I don't think they have a ton of loyalty to giving Chuba Hubbard 70 plus percent of the snaps or the carries there. So, that could end up being a 50-50 split, which results in massively capping both of those guys' ceilings. I think your upside pick in this offense is going to be T McMillan. And that's about it.
And then Cleveland and Miami, do you really even want me to talk about these two offenses? It's Quinn Sean Judkins. And then you're pretty much taking a shot on Casey Conpsion >> or Harold Fannon. And they're all dart throws. The safest dart throw being Quinn Sean because he gets a lot of volume and they're going to give him the ball a lot on the ground. Uh Miami enough said [laughter] fair. I mean, it's going to be bad there. This is the number one reason I'm worried about Han to be honest with you is be just because the offense project be so incredibly terrible this year. >> I mean Tua is gone, Tyreek's gone. They have no receivers and and again Devon Achan is the only guy there that you feel comfortable rostering and so he would it's just a matter of can he overcome that situation. We'll see if he can. >> But again, it's not just who has the best offense, who has the highest scoring NFL offenses. It's about fantasy points and how concentrated are the fantasy points and that's how we ranked these guys. Hopefully you enjoy this video. If you did, drop a like on the video. Make sure you're subscribed as well if you play fantasy football. Again, hopefully this invest or this helps you invest in the top what we project to be the top fantasy offenses here in 2026. We appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching. We'll see you here soon.