We Need To Talk About This…

Today's number, guys, is going to absolutely shock you. $429 million worth of calls were opened at the end of Friday alone. And with some brokers now limiting the amount of leverage that you can take on this particular pair, what's in store for one of the biggest short squeezes ever recorded in history? Silver's going crazy. Platinum is doing exactly what we thought, and gold is breaking to all-time highs. So, could this be the end of the financial system as we know it? And are we starting to see signs of the markets cracking under the pressure?

Well, in today's video, we explore what Santa's brought us in terms of a bullish rally and what's in store for 2020 sticks as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos. It's great to be back and we'll see you in just a moment. Guys, don't go anywhere. There's some crazy stats in today's video.

Well, welcome back everyone to the daily show. This is the special weekend edition. My name is Thomas Atinson and as always, we'll be going through the macro, the data, and of course, what Wall Street doesn't want you to know about the markets right now. Santa did come to town as we thought in the stats and we ended up getting an all-time high. What does that mean? But maybe more importantly than any of this is the squeeze currently going on in commodities and of course many people speculating what is the next big move for all of these.

So let's break down what's going on with central banks right now as they've been purchasing of course the commodities for a while. We've been reporting on it since 2023 and obviously incredibly bullish on gold since those 1700 kind of periods. But have we also been bullish on silver? Well, the answer is yes and platinum and palladium and it just shows that great price action plus flow adjustment plus of course what we've been doing all year which is following the data really has worked out. I hope you had a very merry Christmas with your family and friends if you celebrate it and maybe even a golden and silver new year uh when it comes to how good it has been for these precious metals. But we cannot always expect this because of course we just hit targets that I had set for 2026 in like a week. Uh that is pretty wild stuff.

So this chart here from Bank of America and of course Mike Zakardi shows that central banks have been stacking. But that will come as no surprise. What is starting to become newsworthy though is that China and other brokers as well are starting to limit if not close markets when it comes to this metals absolute rot that's going on right now in terms of this monster meltup if not huge silver squeeze. Now China is according to the latest data pulling silver exports next week as the world's second largest producer. That's 13% of the global supply. So, this is a pretty big deal. Obviously, if we saw Mexico do something similar plus Peru, it would be wo kind of moment when it comes to the contracts.

Now, if you're not familiar, silver gets traded most of the time in paper contracts and not usually, of course, really questioned in terms of its settlement. And this will bring a lot of eyes to March of 2026 in particular, the special event going on there. But we need to already talk about what's going on when it comes to liquidity because this massive move happening on metals right now is also happening over the Christmas and New Year period. Often known to be the lowest in liquidity and it's causing concerns in some of the brokers around the world. We first reported this about 2 weeks ago on Platinum and Palladium speculating that would most likely lead into a pretty decent squeeze. And one of the reasons was we saw breakouts. Plus, we also saw many brokers closing trades across the board. Basically saying you cannot any longer trade platinum or platium contracts. Instead, you can just close your existing positions. Well, that's now happening with silver particularly for the idea of not being able to lever as much. And this is of course showing that there is a real concern in the markets about extreme moves. Just remember guys, there is probably an expectation. And if you haven't seen it already, check out a palladium chart that is going to get pretty wild out there. And one of the reasons is monster contracts during this illquid period. In fact, according to Subu Trade and Market Chameleon, we actually saw that there were 429 million silver miner ETF SILJ calls that just got set. And this is basically a massive position all put in at the same point. Look at these timestamps here. And you can see that they're all calls and they're all set for around January and February of 2026.

Now, I'm sure this is all going to be hidden the news along with what's going on with China. But we do need to remember that one of the things that we do here a little bit differently on the channel is work out correlations, work out flow movement, and also work out when everyone's gone a little bit too hyperactive on a trade. And you may not know this, but silver and platinum and palladium are well known for their hyperbooms and hyper busts. And you'll see here going to Tabby Costa over on X, we've actually hit something we've been looking for for a little while, which is of course silver adjusted for money supply overall trend line reads. And while this of course could go a lot higher still, it does beg to question whether this is the time to actually be jumping to silver. And I'm sure most of you in the comments down below will know the answer to that. Because if you miss something, then you've always got to say, "Okay, that's fine. Let's move to the abundance mindset and move on to the next position. And boy oh boy, are the new positions starting to line up all the time. I mean, we've seen platinum and palladium. No one was interested in those until just a few weeks ago. And again, you know, we see it here with silver. Time and time again, people doubt this metal and then it just goes ballistic.

Now, this chart here from Seth Golden and Subu Trade basically shows us one of the big problem signs. silver after the volume exceeded $7.5 billion doesn't tend to do so well. Now, one of the things that silver did as well was it actually broke through a few of the ratios that I've been looking for for a while. Silver is now caught up in my opinion to the median kind of range with gold. And I think that's always important when you see a metal move up to areas that you thought it should. And remember, we thought silver was incredibly underpriced in 2025, guys. And it was one of the reasons that we thought it was a great buy and it h turned out to be excellent. And now that's starting to come back into that where we think fair value is. And it's kind of similar to Google when we said that that was undervalued during 2025. It's come back to what we think is a fair value. Does it mean it's over? Maybe not. But when you get volumes like this, take a look at the stats for the next couple of weeks and months. It's actually a bit of a worrying sign that you get squeezes like this. And do remember this is happening while everybody is going to be screaming about the excellent opportunity. Yeah, sure it was an excellent opportunity. Yeah, sure it could keep going up. But when you see these types of epic moves, and this one here is actually taken before it went even higher, you've got to always uh take it with a grain of salt and say, "Okay, well, yes, if I'm in it, great. But should I really be getting into a hyper boom like this?" Time and time again, we see this story of people getting into stuff, they chase, sometimes they win, and if you lose, you lose epically. Have a look here. It's SLV ETF. And we do have the options for this, by the way, later on today's video. So, you can see the levels and what happens when it gains over 50% in 45 trading days. According to Money Flows, this was not a great read for the precious metals. And again, you're going to hear people say, "This time is different. Everything's changed." Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of precious metals still into the future and there are many reasons why, but at the same time, you've got to recognize when something goes absolutely ballistic, and this is not a usual move. So, we could go up even more, but we are probably going to see what we call a blowoff top very, very soon.

Now, let's have a look here at Chile. Copper production has been nailed throughout 2025. You can see it falling off again thanks to Tabby Costa here. And what this is showing us is again that we are still seeing shortages across the world and several metals that are still historically cheap. And copper was one of our pickup metals over the last couple of weeks and it's just hit its first target. So what you're going to notice in today's video is we're starting to see a few correlations here. We've got platinum starting to hit its first target. We've got things like silver hitting its first major major target. 75 to 80 was pretty much my level and it's of course done that. We're also seeing the options levels starting to come in and of course at the same period we've got mega contracts.

Now let's take a look at the US dollar. This is a chart that I think we're going to discuss a little bit more in 2026. Make sure to sub if you love this type of stuff as well, guys. Uh links in the description down below, obviously sub channels, all of those things. Make sure to follow us on some of the other platforms as well, LinkedIn and X if you can. And what you'll notice is that this is a serious level here for the US dollar moving into 2026. Pretty much the trend line that's held it up for 20 years could be under pressure. And this is something that I think we should all be focused in on because a lot of people are going to say to you right now, Tom, or anybody else, they're going to say hyperinflation is coming. Stagflation is coming. This is what we saw in the 1970s. And there are many good cases to say that. I actually think we're at a start of a bit of a longer term boom in metals and and commodities which have been, you know, doing nothing really for a long time. Um, especially oil. We'll talk about oil later on. It's doing absolutely nothing. But you can see here that this is going to be a very important level. And if we lose this on the dollar, it could really start a large level of weakness and of course continued price um improvement for many, many other pairs out there. So, it's a channel. It's a kind of like a big trend line that we need to be watching.

Now, of course, we've seen gold, silver, platinum, palladium move this year. Then, we saw copper and copper miners start to move. One of my favorites recently has been copper miners, and they've gone absolutely ballistic. And will we see energy? Well, we still don't have the signs of it, but this is something we've been watching. And if you've been a watcher of this channel, you would know that oil services has been one of the sectors that I've thought is pretty good. It's actually been, you know, a little bit of a secret kind of one. Again, that abundance mindset we talk about here on the channel. It always comes through when you start thinking about how many opportunities there are in these global markets. That's the beautiful thing about what we do here, guys. We cover everything. Why? Cuz they're all interesting. You know, sometimes bonds are good, sometimes stocks are good, sometimes commodities are good.

So, the S&P 500, you might say, well, what's that got to do with silver? Well, when silver goes ballistic, so it did go ballistic and it goes to a one-year high. Subu actually pulled some stats from this and you will note that the last time this actually happened was the '7s, '8s uh before that period of time, of course, what happened and then 87, interestingly enough, you know, if you know what happened in ' 87 and then of course 2020 and 2025. Now, it does tend to actually bring overall a pretty bullish kind of stock market over the next couple of weeks. So remember, we look at the first couple of weeks in January to really get a bit of an idea of the rest of the year. Then we can make more accurate predictions on what might actually be happening and of course bring that into our overall um kind of attitude towards the markets. But another thing that's been happening is the window dressing. So we always do tend to see a bit of window dressing near the end of the year. This is a chart here showing equity fund flow. You know why, guys? It's all about those lobster rolls. I'm sure a few of the Wall Street bigwigs managed to get some lobster rolls this year as they were behind for a little while. As you can see here, they went negative flows, but then they started to really accelerate through this little period here. But what they were doing was they were focusing on different sectors and kind of taking advantage of uh maybe retail traders a little bit up there near the highs.

Now, we saw something similar happen in 2024 coming into 2025. And what we saw was a distribution style market, which many people believe we're in right now. And of course, we'll be trading and and looking very closely at the investing side in terms of volume trades because remember large volume up here at the highs could give us a sign that we're in a similar distribution to what we were in 21 than what we were in, of course, the end of 24 and what we could be in right now. But either way, massive fund flow coming into the markets and obviously an important signal that we need to be looking at. The other question is the earnings. So, we know that earnings is just around the corner. We've got new earnings coming in January and obviously this is going to be the big question. A lot of people say it's a bubble. I tend to believe it is as well, but again, bubbles only pop when no one talks about them anymore and they believe it's the new norm. But what you will see is that earnings is actually holding up with the stock market itself. And this is something we didn't see in previous times such as the dot boom. And if you actually have a look here S&P 500 price return in percentage, you'll notice that overall what happened here was we got PE multiple growth and EPS growth that actually was showing PE multiples compressing a little bit according to duality research here even though EPS was on the improved. So it wasn't necessarily a year of I would say like extreme overvaluation when you think about where we came from in 2024. It was actually a point where we saw stag well pretty much just compression of the overall PE ratios.

Now, what about the S&P 500 being up for eight months potentially in a row? If we do end up December positively, we'll be eight months up in the row. And you'll notice that that is not so good for January and could be actually really bad when you think about midterm election years. Have a look here at 1 month later, only 55% of the time bullish, which as you know, not a great read for an overall bullish market. And we do know that most people are all in right now because cash holdings have gone down and investor sentiment survey results have started to go up. We've also seen even the investor sentiment surveys from all the hobbyist kind of side has also started to drop from really really pessimistic to starting to get a bit more optimistic. And as you guys know when everyone turns bullish you want to be starting to turn a little bit bearish. When everyone turns bearish uh you want to be starting to look for the opportunity.

Now, why is this all important? Well, it's really about a matter of timing. And you guys know that the big thing here is we just hit an all-time high on the S&P 500. We just did some crazy numbers on silver and gold and others and platinum, which we'll look at soon. And of course, we also know that the period of Christmas and the week after around the holiday period tends to be relatively strong. So, you'll see here that usually when we rally during the Christmas week, 1.4% 4% in this case. Going to the market stats, the next week is pretty good. So, if we're going to see weakness in January, it's probably going to be after the holidays and we'll be, you know, obviously bring videos out and and looking at that across the board. The other thing that I thought was interesting was this chart here from Grand Hawkage, which shows that the median overall percentage change for a bull market should be around 94.7% and that we have currently gone about 93.2%. So, does this mean that we could be in for a massive crash in 2026? It's certainly possible. Obviously, you can see there the average was much higher, though. So, you've got to be looking more at the structure than anything else. And that's why we're going to be focused very much on how does January play out in terms of do we see the large caps, do we see the midcaps, do we see small caps going, which ones the best. And for anyone that didn't know, as of October, we've been following pretty much this read. And so far it has been playing extremely well which obviously points towards the January period being potentially the weakness period and then maybe a rally maybe distribution into weakness. We've got to be looking at the structure very closely. So really everything's kind of playing the way we thought it would when it comes to uh the S&P 500 and when it comes to even the medals although they have gone a little bit crazier than you would have expected creating that illi liquidity kind of squeeze which is dangerous.

Now, in 2026, it is a midterm election year, so please be warned that they are notoriously volatile. And obviously, we saw that Nautilus went through and found all of the the analog periods. And they actually found that the distribution pattern was the most common u read right now followed by a pullback followed by a rally and then kind of like chop. So, not really necessarily the greatest gain here. and you'll see an update from me very soon where I'll actually go through our expectations for 2026 and of course what we're looking at in terms of some of the best areas to be watching and this is something I actually did a few months ago but I'll update it a little bit although it actually has been pretty good and of course we'll be talking about that very very closely so make sure to sub to the channel that will be a free event a special event for you guys coming in 2026.

All right, let's have a look now at the S&P 500. Is it all green all good when we go to an all-time high? Well, for now, I would say yes because of course we are at an all-time high. We closed convincingly above. So, we actually did manage to get above and it happened with the advanced decline line also improving. So, this is of course a great sign guys. That's exactly what you want to be seeing in terms of the futures market action. You can see here again a closure above the high is important. Now, for anyone that's feeling really bearish on the market, obviously if we did this and then went down and and did something like that, that would be incredibly bad. That would be what we call a woff and this would be a false break. But it's very hard to call it a false break when the advanced decline lines improving and when you see a candle formation like this, which is of course a bullish hammer or pin bar into improvement. So that basically is telling us that the market still looks pretty good.

Now, does that back up with options? As you guys can see here, we've been talking about 7,000 potentially for the end of the year. Well, we're really close to it now. 6930. If we get through 6930, 6950, then we could be pushing towards the 7K marker, which I think is pretty cool. And that's been working. And time and time again, these options markets during 2025 have really proven to be pretty correct because you guys saw where did we stop, guys? Maybe it was you. Maybe we live in the matrix. Who knows? 498 Boom. Look at that on Tesla. Oh, now we're back to 475. Congratulations if you got that one. If you nailed 498, I'm going to give you a clap. That is absolutely wild, guys. Um, it was perfect. It was exactly how we always talk and and teach here on the channel when it comes to options. It was uh yeah, it's a beautiful thing. 190 on Nvidia. So, we got through 185. Pretty strong for Nvidia. We'll talk about that later on the charts. And of course, the big one here is probably gold and silver. with gold pressing that 416 415 core wall and obviously it being more in a positive gamma kind of field right now and silver the silver contracts here actually showing 75 being a bit of a wall. So I think that where we are right now this 71 and 75 are going to be pretty important but have a look at all those positive gamma style options this week. So basically we have a huge amount of options that are going to be kind of running um pretty positive gamma and that's going to be happening into the end of the year. So I think that with silver you've got to be very very careful of that contract uh especially as we're seeing more and more brokers limit what's going on and everything come into the press. There's no doubt that nobody in the markets doesn't know about what's happening with silver now. So I always say that's usually the most dangerous time be trading or investing in a pair like that when everybody sees it when you're getting involved and you start to see people pick up. Fantastic. But I've got to tell you that was weeks and months ago as we were talking. In fact it was about 9 months ago for silver really. But what a year it's been. I bit.

Now when it comes to Bitcoin this has been a really interesting trade. Obviously we've seen these 4048 levels being held uh when it comes to the put zone. So that actually remains a really high liquidity zone that we need to be watching. And on the top end, well, it's all actually about 90,800, which we'll look at in a moment. So let's jump into the charts. Let's look at what actually matters right now into 2026. And of course, where the opportunities could lie. And first up, we'll look at the dollar. So the US dollar's trend line is pretty clear. It's actually a very good trend line, and I'll be watching that closely. But when you're looking at the smaller time frames to kind of figure out whether the bulls or bears are in control right now, it's clearly the bears. Uh we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows. We're back to what I would say is pretty much the most traded area. And if we break through kind of like a 9840, we could be seeing a little bit more strength sitting in 99.5. And then of course if we get through that, that'll be pretty strong. But for now, the trend is of course going to probably push towards this this uh downward trend line. And if it breaks through here, the question is going to be then hyperinflation or some form of degradation of the financial system.

So I think the big story right now has been that we're seeing some form of inflation that precious metals are seeing that no one else is. I'm not sure about that one, guys, because generally speaking, you would generally see the yields break out a lot more. So, US 10year, 20 year, and 30-year break up higher um kind of showing that the central banks would have to push higher. So, that's an interesting point. And you would also usually see metals uh not metals, oil move out as well. And oil still hasn't actually um gone up. That's generally a bit of more of a sign of the potential of stagflation coming. So, what could be happening right now instead is it's more of a likely a currency war between several nations around the world and a real attack on the US dollar. So, you've got to remember precious metals have been stacked by central banks. They're being stacked now by you and I. Many many retail traders are now falling um to the idea of of or maybe this financial system is not going to hold up. And of course, there are all sorts of other very powerful uh things in play. There's so many reasons that we were bullish on gold and silver and you know too many to go through in this video. If you've been watching, you'll know what I'm talking about.

So, let's have a look here at gold. What's going on? It's a pretty strong move. It has kind of started to accelerate a little bit more. Gold obviously hit past 4500, which was my aim. And it's looking pretty strong. So, there's not much correlation here from gold, but where there are there is a bit more correlation is when we look at some of the other metals. Look at copper. So it nailed our 585 pretty much in a day. So well done. That is a absolute big move there. And you can see here this is this is a huge huge move for copper because copper actually now is closed at an all-time high and could be could be pressing up. And again it just shows you there's a lot of precious metal demand here. And platinum actually went and hit the ratio that we talked about just two weeks 3 weeks ago which is 0.55 which was actually my major target. So I guess with platinum it's done it. It's it's reached what I think is a you know it's not the an absolute utmost kind of you know super ripoff price like a 7 is but certainly it's hit like the average and that's that's pretty big and that's of course the flag pattern and just shows you why we do things here a little bit differently on the channel. I mean it's a huge deal guys seeing such a move and that's two weeks. If you told me that's going to happen in two weeks I'd say probably not guys. It did. It happened. So, it just shows you even when you've been in the market as long as I have, you know, back from 2007 period, you still can see stuff that surprises you. And although I've leared to expect these types of things because they can happen so I don't say it's out of out of the possibility, it just shows you. You've got to expect the unexpected sometimes in terms of moves. So, big move there from platinum kind of getting towards correlation. So, again, you got silver kind of correlating with gold. You've also got correlation starting to happen when it comes to copper hitting that resistance. And then of course you've got uh platinum also hitting it. And if you hadn't looked, palladium of course is very volatile as well. So it just shows you a little bit there when you're looking at charts. And we'll just load a silver chart up here so you can see it. This is not normal. Uh I think we all know that. And when you see a candle this large, of course it closes at its high. So what are you going to expect? We're going to expect, of course, it does go higher. Why wouldn't you expect that? But there will become a point of extreme volatility where it's going to get crunched and obviously we'll be covering that over the next couple of weeks. I I doubt that this thing's just going to keep absolutely skyrocketing. I think it's going to potentially jump more, but it will experience that extreme volatility. And when that happens, you'll have to be saying, "Okay, is that really the end of the run?" uh because you know silver squeezes like this and then it it tends to to break down uh as we saw by the stats.

Let's have a look now at what's happening in the broad market. Dow Jones Industrial Average going towards those all-time highs. Again, it's a good sign for the markets and Nvidia versus the SPY. You can see he actually double bottomed. So, this is something we've been talking about where we thought Nvidia was kind of sitting doing nothing and we we looked at that support line. Um, so we kind of looked at this level down here as a potential uh point where the markets could be turning weaker. We also looked up here for doubling bottom patterns. So this is actually a pretty good sign for stock markets. You can see here Nvidia breaking up and probably a lot of that is just the fact is they've sold everything. I mean these data centers, they cannot keep up with the demand. Look at the RAM shortages right now. Look at how they're ripping off their old markets. like us like the the retail gamers potentially if you've been buying game machines doesn't look like you're going to be getting any graphics card upgrades anytime soon guys cheap because they're taking it off the market and they're giving it to these data centers. So again Nvidia double bottom the pattern technically is activated to the upside and you can see here on the weekly it came in with the bullish hammer and then closed pretty strong. So could it get back to the 210 pluses? You've got to think it's starting to look a little bit better towards that side.

When it comes to Tesla 498. Well done, guys. Absolute snipers you are. That is phenomenal levels and it just shows time and time again. I wouldn't mind if you took 495 or 498. It just shows why Tesla is the option stock and uh it is phenomenal stuff. So, do I think it might just sit there for a little bit? Yes. We'll obviously look for the next good opportunity when it comes, but the 498, phenomenal stuff there. Chinese markets, nothing much going on. Chinese New Year. Maybe we'll get some announcements soon or something. But um yeah, we got here 26250 new break high. That'll get people excited. And this market's been sleeping now for 6 months, which means that of course it might have an acceleration coming soon. We've got an interesting chart sharing on that very very soon. The video NASDAQ, yeah, nothing much going on. A lot of people are drawing this saying, look, it's head and shoulders. Not so sure about that, but obviously could be a distribution pattern. At this moment, though, what's the trend doing? Still bullish and there's no real reason to say anything. The leader of the market, that is Nvidia, has broken a double bottom. So, you're not going to say it's negative.

Now, let's move over to the next one, which is Bitcoin. And guys, this Bitcoin chart is pretty interesting because of course it has lots of rejection wicks and it has no break above 90,800. Now, if it does that, it's going to have a lot of liquidity up there. Now, if you haven't seen it, go over to our Twitter, follow us on X or whatever it's called. And basically, you can see that there are huge amounts of contracts sitting right behind these weeks. So, if we get a close above here, I actually think it's going to look pretty good. And one thing I didn't mention yet in today's video because there's just so much other news going on is that Tom Lee came out and I think he said some major Ethereum uh targets. He had his Bitcoin. reiterated 200,000 for Bitcoin said something like 67,000 something like that even more for Ethereum and obviously long-term target for Ethereum was 20K so still a lot of people uh I guess going for the bull side here um the key is going to be this level also watch 86,000 I think a break underneath there remember this is still know theoretically if you actually draw it up kind of a flag pattern to the downside and the bulls have not convincingly taken out the shorters just yet. So, I think a very interesting chart, but of course, as I often say where all eyes are on it, it's not usually the best. And where are all eyes now? I'm going to say it's silver.

Guys, this week ahead, we do know that of course we have all sorts of bank holidays, which always create super levels of illiquidity and of course maybe low trade. But you know that the main thing to look at here is going to be the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, December the 30th. And then of course I think the best thing to do is to of course focus in on the stats coming into the new year. It does look like the markets will probably hold bullish and it's also important to note that silver, platinum and palladium are going to get even crazier and I would not be expecting anything other than madness u based on the fact that the chart went up that much in just a week. So, we could get more squeezing first and then I expect some extreme volatility. And as they say, when volatility enters the chat, you guys know it's time to watch an FXE video because we have a lot to say about that.

Guys, had I hope you had a very merry Christmas. I hope that you had a little good break there. I've got some videos coming over the next couple of weeks, but obviously it'll be a little bit less because I am on holiday myself and you got to take a little bit of time away from the charts. Yeah. And I do want to say thank you, a big thank you for the support here in 2025. 2026 is going to be even bigger. And stay tuned for that massive report as well in 2026 that we'll be doing soon. Announcement coming early in the year. Thanks so much. You have a great day. Sub. Bye for now.