Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you have had a wonderful weekend, and I hope that you know we can chop some charts up today and potentially make some money this week. So, yep, you already know that we always start by looking at Forex Factory, right? That's always the first thing that we do. As you guys can see, Monday, we have no news, right? So, you know the protocol for that, unless there is sequential SMT between Monday and Friday of the previous week, of course. Then we'll have nothing to do. It's as simple as that, right?
And I know, you know, some of you, well, everyone knows, right, the concepts that we use here. And instead of, you know, continuously repeating SMT or SMT fill, anything like that, we will just be, you know, saying a cracking correlation. So you should know what that is, and you should know the types that they are, right? You should know the types that are there, right? Because I am assuming that if you're still here right now, you, you take this pretty seriously. You've been studying, right? I'm pretty sure that you know, none of you here do not know what the SMT fill is. You don't know what premium and discount is. You don't know what a fair value gap is. Everyone should know what a breaker is, right? You should know every true open by heart, right? So you should know the main components of the system that we will be giving to you, right? And this system will be given to you, you know, on up next month. Not here, definitely not here, right? It will be given to you guys on W. And we will be, you know, there are many systems that we have that, you know, have been tested over and over, and we will be giving them to you like one by one. And like, see, test out W's new security for, you know, see if we give this one, does it get late? Right? But it will be given to you based on your understanding, based on everything that we've already talked about, right? And we will be giving you analysis that will coordinate with that model, that specific model that you'll be given, right? So it's basically, okay, I need to do this and this and this, and that's it, right? I need to just follow the rules exactly, right? It's not, okay, I'm going to look for precision. If it, if the model does not require a precision swing, that you do not need to look for it, right? There are times when you will get overwhelmed with the information that charts present to you, and there are times when you do not need everything, right? I'm pretty sure that you've been back testing. I hope that you have been. If you're still here, then I'm pretty sure that you've been back testing day and night, right? Trying to grasp everything, paying attention to the live streams, which are very important, right? It's very important to know when to trade. It's very important to know when not to trade. It's very important to know when there's nothing, nothing in the charts at all, right? Cuz there are times when there'll be nothing, right? Like the majority of last week, and more than likely the majority of this week too. Why? Right now, this week would be, you know, for the monthly, for the monthly cycle. What Friday would be for the weekly cycle. Now, we'll go, you know, deeper into that, and that is, you know, basically part of the Dublin theory that you will begin to understand because there are gaps that are left out in quarterly theory. Right? Quarterly theory is just, you know, a phase to get people to understand the factuality of price, right? That's what it is. That's exactly what it is. There are different types of correlations which are structured around different times which do not fit within quarterly theory, and this is what you must understand, right? But anyways, right, let's continue talking about the economic calendar. So Monday, if there is sequential SMT, okay, let me say that over again. Monday, if there's a cracking correlation within the weekly cycle, then followed by a cracking correlation within the daily cycle, then and only then will you have something to do. If price is in its appropriate side of the dealing range, for example, if you're bearish, you must be in premium, and if you're bullish, you must be in discount. It's pretty simple, right? It's pretty simple. Will you win all the times? No. Will you win most of the times? Yes. And that's what you should be aiming for, not winning every single trade that I take, cuz that does not exist. And we have, we literally have someone here, you know, that is, I don't know if I, you know, want to give his, give him away, but, you know, he is doing very well in the World Cup trading championships, Robins, whatever it is, right? And I was just going through, you know, everyone, and I saw him, and I was like, that's insane, right? That's, that's cool. It's been here since the beginning, right? I'm pretty sure that my friend, you're listening right now, I can see you. Um, you caught some, you caught some of the moves from last month and previous month. That's good. That's amazing. Nice to have you here. Also, know, let's go back to what we were talking about. I keep going off topic for some reason, right? On Tuesday, we have news at 8:30 AM and 10 and 10 AM, right? Tuesday and Wednesday, you know, on the week of non-farm payroll, right? The first three days of the week will be the most, you know, the highest probable days. Even if the day, Monday doesn't have a news event, as long as there's a cracking correlation, then we will have something to do, right? Here we have news during the New York session, right? And just by looking at this, right, if we already had the London session take out the Asian session, while another asset class failed to do so, you know, which is in accordance with the, you know, the triads or the three triads that we're focusing on at the moment, right? If that happens, then you could look for, you know, example, expansion during the London session, right? Or continuation of that expansion during the New York session. So it all has to do with cracking correlation, and, you know, anyone that tells you that it doesn't, you know, they don't know what they're talking about. I can assure you that, right? Cuz you have people that will just, you know, post screenshots, post profits, whatever it is, but they don't explain the mechanics of the market to you in a way that you can grasp, way that it's not hard. Here on Wednesday, we have four folders, red news folders, USD, of course, that's what we prioritize, right? USD news. We have four red folders during the New York session, and we have three in the afternoon session, right? So this day, Wednesday, it's not that you should not fear, right? Right? You should not even fear non-farm payroll. You shouldn't fear anything, right? You should not fear. As long as if you're bearish, price is in premium, and you have a cracking correlation, at least two cracking correlations, right? From higher time frame to lower time frame, then you're okay. As long as you have a stop loss, you shouldn't fear anything, right? Because the only thing that these things do, right, and usually whenever you have, you know, a lot of, you know, news events like this per week, it's pretty hard to know the high of the week or low of the week, you know, prior to seeing at least, you know, two or three days play out, right? And usually you have that, we have the high, low, the week, you know, after the Tuesday whenever we have price action like this. So Wednesday will, you know, be for, for us, since it will be the day of, you know, the most volatility. Even if price is choppy, right, you can get out the bottom at the bottom of the chop if you got in at the top, for example, right? This week is a, will be a challenging week for most of you. If you manage, and I know all of you, you will be trying to do something. I'm not saying that you shouldn't. I'm saying that you should manage your risk. I'm definitely not saying that you shouldn't, because you should. These are the conditions that you will learn the most. Am I telling you that I won't? Oh, I, I will, of course, I will, right? You need to, you know, be weary of risk management. About any, everything else, everything else is gravy. Everything else comes second, right? The, the people here that, you know, are making the most money, the people here that are passing fund accounts, the people here that are successful, the people here that, you know, they'll take two, three losses in a row, they don't care. Why? Because they know that their system works more times than it doesn't. So, right? If they are winning, like, okay, I won four trades in a row, they don't feel like God. They know they're going to eventually lose, and that's just a part of it. That's what you need to understand. That's what will separate you from everyone else. That's what will make you make money. That's what will help you grow your account. That's what will change you, not only into a better trader, a better person. You know, you won't be emotionally reactive to people on the internet, right? You, you won't be emotionally reactive to, you know, if you're in a relationship, your spouse, or whoever it is you are with, right? They'll say something that they think would upset you, you won't care. And that's the level that you're trying to reach, you know, emotional intelligence. That's what you are trying to gain. That's the most important thing above everything else. Understanding that you will lose money, not that you will lose money, you have to lose money, right? You will make a mistake. Manage your risk, right? And yes, we will be talking about risk management. We'll be talking about the amount of trades that you need, that you shouldn't go over, you know, if you're new, cuz everyone that, you know, is successful within this, you know, industry, they have certain rules that they follow. And the rules that save them the most, it doesn't have anything to do with technical rules or fundamental rules or, you know, anything that has to do with price action. It has to do with managing risk. Because what are we? Professional risk managers, right? That's literally what it is. The first time I got my job, you know, trading for a firm, it was basically on, you know, they realizing that, you know, I am basically emotionless, right? It's like, okay, I'll take a loss, don't care. And they like that. That's what they like. Take a loss, don't care. Win, don't care. No celebration. You, you won't know if I made $500,000. You won't, no one will know if I made a million dollars this month. No one will know if I made $5 million because I, what I am numbed with. And that's how you should be. And going on, yeah, Wednesday, we already talked about Wednesday, you know, that we will have a bit of volatility, right? Thursday, we'll have USD news at 8:30 AM, New York session. Friday, we will have non-farm payroll, so a bit of volatility as well. Note that this week, you know, would not be a part of the monthly cycle, right? If you look at the indicator that, you know, we built, you have for free, you, you notice that this week is blank, you know, looking at the monthly cycle, it's blank. This week and next week will be Q1, right? That's a low probability week, right there. But it does have a meaning, and we do reflect upon it whenever we go to Q1. And that is, you know, all will be taught within the, you know, Dublin Theory lectures. And now we look at some charts, right? Here we have the T-bond futures, the tenure treasure note futures, and the five-year T-note futures at these highs right here. We had a cracking correlation between this triad and the Forex triad, right? So I'll show you guys right here. Bear with me with my clicky mouse. I will change it as soon as possible, just soon as I get the other one. So as you guys can see here, right? And we're training your eyes, right? That's what, that's exactly what we're trading right now, your eyes, right? So here you can see that we traded above here where we were bearish, right? And we expected price to be drawn to this low, which seemed impossible here. Everyone was bullish except us. So I'll use the closer right here, right? You can see we had a crack and correlation between this high right here and this high, right? So between the interest rate triad and the Great British pound, or the, not the Great British pound, the Forex triad, right? There are six assets, right? When it comes to correlation, we don't go above the yearly cycle, right? If you go above that, you'll see things that don't make any sense to you, which we'll eventually talk about. It will not make any sense to you because you don't know what it is, right? So here we had a cracking correlation, price dropped, price dropped again. Now, right there, there is no cracking correlation here, right? As yet, right? So for now, we can see some, we could see some, you know, consolidation. And if we do not see a bullish cracking correlation, then we would anticipate that we will be going lower, right? So this candle right here changes nothing. It doesn't change anything, right? We can still, you know, go above here and in this area, and then once we get a lower time frame cracking correlation, which is in line with this, then we will have something to do. But until then, you do nothing. Pretty, pretty easy, pretty simple. Until then, there's nothing to do, right? And we will see more evidence of that, right here on the lower time frames. So this right now is literally us analyzing price, right? This is what it is. And by doing this, we can see that we are in an improbable, you know, market condition. This market condition is that high probability, right? And it's, you know, coincident that, you know, it's happening, this price action happened the week before an NFP week, non-farm payroll. So here, and no one has ever talked about this before. I'm pretty sure this will be everywhere, but it's not that, you know, um, what would I say, amazing, so I don't care. So here you will see the T-bond futures on the forward time frame, the monthly cycle, right? Remember when comparing the interest rate triad to the Forex triad, you don't go above the yearly cycle. So monthly cycle comparable, weekly cycle comparable, the daily cycle comparable. When you go above that, you will see, you know, a lot of things that seem like noise. There, there's not any noise in price action. Nothing is random, but for now, it will seem like noise to you. So here we have the T-bond futures, you know, moving almost, you know, mirror-like to the US dollar index, right? And this happened. This is usually the price action that we have happening before weeks such as this NFP week, low probability weeks. An NFP week usually, you know, kicks price into, you know, symmetrical market conditions. And if NFP doesn't do that, then CPI will do it, right? So here we have the US dollar taking this low right here, right? This price action, this low, where if you were live, right, we expected, you know, price to be trending higher. We didn't expect it to be trending lower, but there was a lot of chop right here. And still, we did expect low probability price action. So not because we got the, and these are four candles, right? These are not five-minute candles, these are four-hour candles, right? We got the draw liquidity, right? Correct, right? And, you know, that just goes to show that, you know, the concepts that we are using, they're true. And yes, we'll talk about the 13-week cycles as well, not today though. So whenever we have price action like this, wherever, whenever the dollar seems to be, seems to be mirroring the T-bond futures or the bond market, expect low probability. That is not a market, you know, that you want to be risking the most money within. Such as now, this is, you know, live. This is happening now. This is what's in front of us right now. This is what's within the market right now. So what do we do now? We wait. What do we need to see? A cracking correlation for the dollar. Where do you, where do I think is the obvious draw liquidity? These highs. Eventually, we'll get to these highs, right? And even if that, you know, doesn't happen right now, you know, these highs are important, and in my opinion, they will be taken. When will they be taken? After, you know, which event? After we have a cracking correlation that's bullish. That's textbook, right? That's it. Looking at the index futures market, I know you're confused. You can't tell me you're not confused right now. Everyone is confused. Anyone that says they're not, they like, they know exactly what's going to happen now, they're a liar, right? And gamblers, because this right here is not your typical, you know, price action. However, we're, I am more inclined, right? Due to the fact that the Dow, you know, on the lower time frame, these highs right here, this high right here is, you know, a draw on liquidity for me. And we have this fair value gap here, 49. Another draw on liquidity for me, right? So this gap right here is a draw on liquidity for me. If you look right here, right, where we have all these wicks right here, right? These, as ICT calls them, volume imbalances, that's what he calls them, right? That's, I believe that's his thing, right? This is low probability price action, right? This is not high probability price action. This is consolidating, but sideways, right? That's what this is. So we have this fair value gap here, and we will probably see some retracement of price. If price pushes into this fair value gap, and we do have enough volatility this week to see that happen, happen, right? So for now, you know, some upside, you know, seems to be due. But what would allow us to, you know, be a part of that? You already know what to look for, right? A cracking correlation. And that will always be the case for the S&P 500, right? We are already within this camp. Price to just fall right now. No, you know, you would, I would be more inclined to expect price to return back within this range after, you know, filling this gap right here. And to be honest, since the year even started, right? Let me tell you, this is probably, and it's due, right? Due to the fact that this week is not, you know, a part of the traditional quarterly or weekly cycle, which is comprised of four weeks, right? This is a blank week, right? We have 13 weeks in each quarter, and this is that extra third, that this is an extra week, right? So we will be, you know, paying attention to this gap right here on the four-hour time frame, right? It looks like this. So if we have, you know, volatile price action, which pushes price above this high, and in relation to the previous quarter, which would be this blue rectangle right here, representing the monthly cycle, right? Right here, during this week, which is going to be blank, right? There's no RGO here signifying low probability, which doesn't mean that you can't do anything. It just means that, you know, price will at times be reluctant to move in the direction which you're anticipating based on logic. So if we have price move above here, and there is a cracking correlation here, we can expect price to return to the range. And here we have, you know, relatively equal highs here, which are, which is, or we go to draw on liquidity. Also here, we have relatively equal highs. So we will see what happens tomorrow. And if there is any, you know, improvement in price action, then we will be going back to the charts and dissecting them again. For the Forex market, you can see that, you know, if you remember, we expected higher prices, which we did get, which we already talked about. Um, we have these equal highs here for the Great British pound, which, you know, I believe are, I believe we should be, you know, focusing on. From this high to this low, right? Price is, you know, over the equilibrium of this range, right? And this range signifies the low of Friday, of the previous Friday, right? Or the previous day's low and the high, right? This line right here signifies the previous day's high. And due to the fact that we have, you know, equal highs here, but equal highs here, then we could expect, you know, price to be drawn to these highs, which, you know, goes hand in hand with our index futures analysis. So it's not to say that we'll just, you know, pump just like that. We could, but it's now, we could first see retracement and a cracking correlation before, you know, we see that happen. In my opinion, unless we see something, you know, very clear, very clean, obvious, right? While price is within this range, wait, just wait. Price is, price tends to be, you know, lateral and low probability when trading below, trading between the high and the low of a previous day's high. So once that low or a high is breached, and then there's a cracking correlation, then that usually signifies a reversal. And I hope that, you know, you took something away from this. And the most important thing, right? Remember, if you're still here, is everything that we talked about at the beginning of this stream. We will be moving to W pretty soon, right? That's like, that's what's been holding up my time, my focus, trying to, you know, making sure that everything is good, fine for you guys. Um, and, you know, tightening security, that's been the main focus, right? So I hope that you guys, you know, took something away from this. I hope that you're ready for the week. This week, focus on, you know, risk management. Oh, I don't want to focus on risk management. I want to make money. When you focus on management, you, you're basically, you know, you'll be making money. Let's just say that, right? Risk management is the gateway to your profitability, right? The longer you survive, the more moves you'll catch, and that's the main thing. That's the main thing you should be focusing on, surviving, right? Trying to, you know, take a loss without friction, learning how to lose properly, right? Because you, you'll always be losing sometimes, you'll never be winning all the time. So why are you just focused on, you know, the positive outcomes? You will not learn anything from the positive outcomes. Everything that you learn will be, you know, coming from negative outcomes. I, I learned the most when I lost $70,000 in one day, right? That's when I learned the most. What did I learn from that? Manage your risk. Manage your risk above everything else. Manage your risk before you take the trade. Where's my stop loss going to be? How much percentage am I going to be risking? Do I even know how to calculate my stop loss? How do I calculate my stop loss, right? If you already have the technicals down, then you already won. You just need to apply risk management. And if you don't do this, I don't know if I can help you. So yes, we will be back during this week, right? I'm, if there is something, you know, very obvious in price, then we will be here 9:30 in the morning, you know, and due to the fact that I don't know exactly, or do I? Let's act like I don't. Due to the fact that, you know, no one knows exactly which day of the week will have that setup, right? I'll just be here whenever I see something obvious. So if I see clear, relatively equal highs, listen, I'll be here and I'll be like, it's right there. Price needs to go right there. Price needs to go there. But first, what do we wait for? Correlation. If the highs are relatively equal highs or above price, that we should be in discount, not premium. And this is a simple way to filter bad trades. So yes, of course, you got a heads up whenever I see anything. I, I'll be very active this week. Um, the previous weeks, um, I mostly like, for example, last week, I probably took one trade, and yeah, that was probably it. It was an intro week trade, right? Due to the fact that I did not have enough time to be just looking at charts, you know, scalping as I usually like to do. So, yeah, we will be back during the course of this week. Not sure if it'll be, I, it'll probably be here, you know, 9:30 for a taping session, which those are usually long, right? And I'll notify you, you know, at least 12 hours before. But definitely, we'll be back Wednesday, and hopefully, right, see if we can, you know, be adding back Saturday live streams. Hope that you found something useful from this, and I hope that you have a, you know, wonderful trading week. And don't risk too much. Manage your risk. That's how you get better than everyone. Goodbye.