Transcription
The US spent the 19th century engaged in war. It spent the 20th century engaged in war. And it's spending the 21st century engaged in war. So it's very simple.
But in the 19th century, the United States was engaged in war in creating a continental economy. Because remember that the United States was born in its revolutionary war between 1776 and 1781 as just the eastern seabboard of North America. A very small sliver. But the Americans in the new nation immediately had the idea that all the land of North America would ultimately be theirs. An idea that was famously called manifest destiny in the 1840s. So the mindset was take over all of the land to the west and that meant many wars, sometimes the good luck of a purchase or two.
When Napoleon had his back to the wall and needed to raise cash in 1803, he sold the land rights to what was then called Louisiana, but was a huge land area east of the Mississippi River to the Americans. Our first president, who was considered a great president, and he had certain greatness, was a pretty ruthless land speculator, by the way. Uh, he uh made his name in the eight in the 1760s. I'm speaking of George Washington uh invading lands in uh the Ohio Valley region uh that the British didn't like, but he was aiming to he was a a land owner and a land speculator. Uh, and so the idea was conquer the lands towards the west.
It took the United States basically the 19th century to finish the conquest and the settlement of North America with all of the genocides of the remaining native populations in between. And when we usually date 1890 to the final completion of the North America of the United States, what did the United States do? It said, "All right, we got the continent, now the world." So immediately the international imperialism began. And for the United States, this meant catching up because Europe was way ahead in imperialism.
So the first thing they did was overthrow the Kingdom of Hawaii in the 1890s. Very nice kingdom uh but easy to overthrow. Uh, and then uh in 1898 on a pretext as shallow as Trump's pretext for his upcoming invasion of Venezuela, uh they went to war with Spain. Actually, it seems like a boiler blew up uh on a US vessel in the Cuban harbor and that was attributed to the Spanish. Almost surely the Spanish did not blow up uh the ship, but it was a great cause for war and the US was itching for empire. And so the war uh of 1898 between the US and Spain uh meant that the US became the imperial power of the Philippines which it still occupies although we don't say it so that way because that would be impolite. Uh, and uh Puerto Rico which we do occupy but we call it a territory. It's not a state. It is a colony. Uh, but and Cuba uh those fell into US hands. Cuba became independent in 1902.
I set the stage because the this was the world that is now completely changing. The world was a western-led world and western imperialism defined the world up until mid-century of the 20th century. It would have it would have continued a lot longer, but Europe went into a paroxysm of the most brutal civil wars imaginable between 1914 and 1918 and 1939 to 1945. And this destroyed Europe at its own hands, not from outside threats, but from internal civil war. And by the end of the Second World War, Europe was broke. It was indebted to the United States.
The United States said, "Now we are the world's superpower. We'll be an empire, but not exactly the same way as the old empire. We'll exercise our power in different ways. We'll dominate the international institutions. We'll dominate international finance. We will dominate the international monetary system. We will have military bases all over the world and if you get out of line where we have a military base, we will overthrow you because you are hosting us and you will be a good host. Thank you." And so this was a different kind of empire but it was a continuation to some extent.
But the important point is that in 1950 the more or less the end of European imperialism was at hand. Though in Africa it was a drawn-out affair over many decades. But India regained its independence in 1947. China became actually a sovereign country for the first time in decades in 1949 with the establishment of the People's Republic of China. Indochina gained its independence step by step only after the US fought France's imperial uh anti-imperial wars uh into the 1970s. But step by step, imperialism was in its formal sense was brought to an end.
And the reason I'm emphasizing all of this is that and it enabled a remaking of the world economy because as long as the West controlled the world system, as long as the West colonized Africa, as long as the West colonized Asia, development could not occur because colonial powers are not interested in development of their colonies. Period. They're interested in exploiting their colonies. They're interested in quiet. They're interested in control. They're not interested in education, in infrastructure, except to the mines like in this region or to the plantations, but they're not interested in broad-based development.
So in 1950, if you took a snapshot of the world, other than the fact that Europe was in ruins, but that would be rebuilt within a 15 to 20 year period, almost all of the industrialization of the world was in Europe or the United States or to a small extent the other offshoots, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the one exception, Japan, which for very interesting historical reasons had become the single country in Asia to industrialize at the end of the 19th century and that's why Japan became an imperial power invading China uh from 1894 through 1945. With independence came the ability of development and this is the main point that I want to stress so it's a long basic point to get to the bottom line.
From 1950 onward, of course, depending on the specific history of each region, it became possible to have autonomous development in sovereign areas of the world. Before that, under the European system, it was not possible. It was not occurring. But after 1950, it could occur and step by step it has occurred. Not everywhere and not evenly and not what we want in Africa because the main change has been in Asia up until now. However, with a lot of change in Africa to be sure, just not at the depth and speed and success that could have occurred had geopolitics and history been somewhat different.
But what did occur after 1950 was the catching up of Asia. And this is the most dramatic change in the world scene. And it's a change of profound historical significance because it really is a change of centuries scale, not something just before our eyes of 10 years or 20 years. The rise of China is the single most significant economic change on the planet in centuries from the point of view of relative economic power and performance. China has become the lead economy of the world, the largest economy of the world. China is at the forefront of almost every major technology. Sometimes with the United States, sometimes ahead of the United States because the US abandoned uh its uh technological efforts on green technologies for example. So China alone leads the world in electric vehicles today in photovoltaics in wind turbines and so forth.
So this is a very profound change and it's extremely important because it's Africa's future which I will come to. But the main point of this first of five and I promise I won't be so long-winded on the others. The first of five changes is we have ended the western-dominated world. We're at the end of that. The G20 in Africa maybe signifies formally the end of that. We're in a multi-polar world economy and the United States is an important country but its share of world output is about 14%. Its share of population is 4% so it's a little more than three times the per capita income of the world average but it doesn't dominate the world. China's share of output is 20% of GDP measured at purchasing power prices. So the first of these major changes in the world is that for the first time in centuries we are not in a western-dominated world.
And that's the second point the geopolitics. Not only has the world economy dramatically evened out, though not fully, but of course, world power has also shifted tremendously in the same direction. The United States cannot bully China. It has tried. It tried as recently as six months ago. It put on 100% tariffs against China, expecting China to get down on its knees and beg for mercy to Mr. Trump. And China said, "Hm, okay, 100% and we'll raise you 20%." And the United States said, "Okay, and we'll raise you export bans on microprocessors." And China said, "And we will raise you with export bans on rare earth magnets," which I had never heard of before. But then discovered that every major industrial process needs them. And the United States backed down within about 48 hours.
And that's the new geopolitical scene. We have several great powers. The United States, Russia, China, India are four nuclear superpowers. They are not at equal level of strength in different dimensions. The United States still has a global reach that is unique because it has military bases in 80 countries around the world. and because the US dollar is used for about 60% of settlements of international transactions. But these are nascent remaining advantages because the core point is that the United States does not dominate the world economy or world trade.
And when Mr. Trump put on protectionist barriers. There were a few countries totally freaked out such as Canada and Mexico because their entire economy is oriented towards the US market about 80% of their exports. But for Africa, the US market represents about 8% of Africa's exports. For China, about 12%. It's not to shrug off, but it's not to obsess about either. And this is the change of geopolitical power. In my view, there are no choke points military or technological or geographic that gives the US any decisive advantage over China in the world. China cannot stop I mean US cannot stop China's development.
And this means that basically the western-led geopolitical order is over. And Donald Trump is home in Washington today because he's having a temper tantrum. That's the only reason because he wants to be number one but can't be anymore. Not that the US is threatened or in danger or losing security or suffering from China or anything of the sort, but it just can't demand that everybody does what it wants. And when the US demanded that NATO go to Ukraine, Russia said no. And the US said, "We don't care what you say. We're going to do it anyway." And that's why there's the war in Ukraine. But Russia's winning that war on the battlefield, which is why Donald Trump's 28-point plan that was uh released in the last two days basically correctly says this war has to stop because otherwise Ukraine will get completely destroyed and it has to stop basically with NATO accepting that it will never expand to Ukraine. Russia won't allow it and the United States can't force it.
So this is the second big dimension of the change of the global order that there is no western-led world. Europe, by the way, is nowhere to be seen. Very strange because they're in a panic about Russia. I think that's why. I can't figure it out, but I've never seen such bad leadership in Europe as I see today. in the modern post-World War II period. So Europe isn't playing any consequential role in geopolitics right now uh because it's divided, confused and wasting its money on military armaments that make no sense.
So the third dimension that has come along with all of this is the technological revolution that's underway. It's not independent of the first two. In fact, the technological revolution, the digital revolution, which has been underway for about 90 years now, starting with the a genius Alan Turing uh in uh England in 1936 uh and then uh the invention of the modern computer by John Von Neumann uh and the developments of the semiconductor and all of the advances in the digital age which go back to the 1930s are now even in an accelerating change. And we know that because we're all using ChatGPT to write our mail and answer our questions and uh do do our homework assignments and everything else uh and grade papers I suppose and whatever else. And this is absolutely remarkable these breakthroughs. This is not small stuff. This is really uh fundamental uh in my view. It's not hype. It's very real and very transformative and it's shaking everything as well. And again, the US thought they had the lead. Uh, China uh is absolutely at the forefront together with the United States on this and there's a lot more innovation to come. Uh, there is no one that's going to have a monopoly on this. Neither those countries nor anyone else because these technologies will be within reach for the whole world in fact.
So the the fourth area of transformation and I say it's not unrelated to the first two because it has been the whole advance of technology that allowed China to leapfrog and to grow so rapidly. It wasn't only catching up by China but it was deploying cutting-edge technologies. So there's a lot of leapfrogging in what China has done. China didn't merely narrow the gap with the United States. It jumped ahead of the United States in many areas. If you, and this is something for the American Center for the Study of the United States, if you study taking a train from New York to Washington, you can investigate whether the train will ever arrive because Amtrak sometimes arrives, sometimes doesn't arrive. Once in a while it's on time. Sometimes it goes 10 or 15 uh miles an hour, 25 kilometers an hour because the track isn't so stable. Sometimes, as in my most recent trip, I had to get off in New Jersey and change trains because the train had broken down entirely. China, on the other hand, just built its 50,000th kilometer of fast rail. The United States does not have one kilometer of fast rail. Not a single kilometer. And Donald Trump, because he's a little uh loose in the uh in in in in the screws up there, um taunted the governor of California for the non-delivery of fast rail on time that is being planned in California. Can you imagine a president of the country taunting a region for failing to have modern infrastructure? That's how strange and self-destructive American politics is right now.
>> What we just watched was a segment from a speech given by Professor Jeffrey Sachs at Wits University in South Africa. In this clip, Professor Sachs is exceptionally frank. He strips away the myth of manifest destiny from American history, revealing it instead as a brutal record of conquest. He also points to undeniable facts. He contrasts China's miracle in high-speed rail with the stagnation of infrastructure in the United States. He also highlights the awkward reality of the trade war where the US was forced to back down out of fear of a rare earth supply cut. All of this proves one thing. The unipolar moment is over.
Sachs' analysis offers a very sobering perspective. First, he reveals a truth that is often overlooked by the mainstream media. He argues that the decline of American power is not driven by external threats, but by internal decay. While Washington is obsessed with maintaining 800 military bases around the world, it has lost the capacity to build a single kilometer of high-speed rail at home. This gap between military overreach abroad and underinvestment at home is, in Sachs' view, the fundamental reason why the US can no longer sustain its global dominance.
Second, Sachs' argument serves as a stark warning to Western policymakers. He points out that attempting to block rising powers through military alliances or trade barriers is not only futile but dangerous. His observation regarding rare earth minerals is profound. It demonstrates that in today's world, any attempt to cut off another country's development will ultimately backfire. As he concludes, the world is irreversibly moving towards multipolarity. For the West, the choice is clear. Instead of refusing to accept reality by throwing a tantrum, as he describes, it would be wiser to follow Sachs' advice. Learn to coexist with this new world as an equal.
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