Transcription
[music] Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here.
Now, in today's video, we're going to dive into a bunch of different things, including Kevin Worsh's latest press conference, which spooked the markets. Not because he wasn't hawkish, that was a positive, but because he was kind of wishy-washy on how they're going to do it. And I think this is really important, guys, is that, you know, he talked a hard game. He said, "We're going to get prices under control. We're going to do X, Y, and Z." And then he didn't give any details. And what we saw is the long end of the curve, the 30-year yields actually go up, which tells you the bond market says this guy's a whole lot of talk, but he's not going to end up doing anything.
And that brings me back to the idea that ultimately remember when the president, President Trump was appointing the next Federal Reserve chair and nominating people and essentially he said, "I will not appoint someone who's going to raise rates." And all of a sudden, we have a Fed chair that talks a tough game, but doesn't seem like he's actually going to do anything. In fact, the odds for September in terms of a rate hike, they're still up there, but they did come down even in spite of his tough talk. And this goes to the credibility of the Fed and part of the reason why the market sold off so sharply yesterday afternoon after or towards the end of the press conference.
Now, listen, when all is said and done, there's multiple factors running into this market selloff we saw yesterday. Obviously, semiconductors have been under pressure. Although, I will reveal that I did do some buying, some major buying on semiconductors yesterday afternoon and even after hours when they were dipping more. I'll reveal some of those buys. But also, this comes down to the fact that the market had other factors like oil and the worry about the US striking back at Iran. And the US did do that, but oil today is not up. It's basically flat. We'll look at that as well. So, lots going on here.
And this is always something that gets me so excited as always, folks, because the volatility creates opportunity. That's what I say as a swing trader. If we're slowly grinding up, I sit there with nothing to do. When we get these wild swings, like when SanDisk, which everyone screamed at me for being short when it was north of 2,000, goes under $1,000 yesterday, I start saying, "Okay, where's the technical level? Look at the size of this retrace." And it is a buy. Absolutely, folks. That one we also did some buying on other names. Soxel, I just actually pre-market unloaded a little bit as it's bouncing back here, holding the other half for a bigger gain. And by the way, all of these trades are transparent. You can see my actual portfolio in smart money stocks and ETFs. And if you're into crypto, I have a crypto portfolio that's full view there. You can see as what coins I'm holding, my exact entry date, entry price, how many tokens of each one, my average P or my average price, my P&L, up or down, good, bad, or ugly, it always shows. All right, so check that out, guys. You can find it all and I have smart money commodities on there as well.
Now, let's get into some charts here because I do want to talk a little bit about the NASDAQ and there is a problem here. So, as much as I think we're bouncing, and I think we got a bounce day, maybe a couple bounce days, the NASDAQ is showing some weak signals here. All right, so number one, we've absolutely seen a pretty big correction. This is the NASDAQ 100, right? So, we've seen ultimately, we talked about this a while back, we had a high and then a lower low. And do you guys see that? And this is the structure change. Low, high, and this was a higher high, right? So high, higher low, higher high, but then a lower low. Then we came up and we made a lower high. We didn't take out that high. We didn't make a lower low, but now we have. Absolutely, we have. And this starts to trigger for what I would con I would confirm as a bigger market cycle change. And so until proven otherwise, the market has now basically negated the bullish side. And while I still again, you might say, well, why am I why is Gareth bearish? Because I'm a swing trader. And so I'm a shorter term investor, meaning that I'm in, but if we bounce massively for a few days, I'm going to start taking profits, right? And I'll show you some of the charts because of it. I mean, it's really, if you are a chart person, this is a no-brainer of why we would do this. Okay?
All right. So, here we have it. The other thing that's a little concerning here is that we have broken back below the big trend line parallel. So, I want to show you guys this. So, if we do our parallel here and we go back to I believe it was right here and we stretch this up to the highs of 2025, right? So, we go here and if and forgive me as I have to just get this in here. So, essentially we have our high pivot here, right? This was our bull market high in 2021, right? Major bull market high. And then we bring it to the highest pivot from 2025, which was October, by the way. That's when Bitcoin topped almost to the day as well. We can see that we broke out, but now we've broken back below. So, as a bounce, absolutely, we should bounce. What I could see happening is we should bounce back to at least this zone right in here. But this zone now low pivot with low pivot and this up ascending trend line this zone is going to be a little bit of a problem for the market and we'll have to watch very closely because again we're coming into a lot of economic data we'll have the PCE data then the jobs data next week we have earnings galore obviously meta reported that stock is getting trashed but that seems to be more of a meta problem Microsoft great earnings that's actually one of the reasons why the markets are up today because Microsoft oft is saving the day. Put that Superman shirt on m on Microsoft because they are helping here save the day. The other thing that's helping to save the day is that last night the Cosby did not collapse massively. It was down but it didn't have another circuit breaker to it. So if we look at the Cosby here, take a look at this guys and uh let me bring up that chart for you guys and we can see on the Cosby that essentially you were down but it wasn't down. and it was only down 1%. Prior two days, it triggered the circuit breakers for max downside and they had to shut the market down. This is going to give investors confidence to think there's a bottom. And on a technical basis, what I'm seeing in the near term is yes, there is a bottom. Now, we listen, it's a zone, right? So, essentially what we have here is all of this. You have this area. There's a gap fill or gap window right there. There's gap fill here. There's pivot lows. Anywhere in this zone, that is a good level. In addition, if we look at fib retraces, right? And the question is, well, where do you do it from? But let's just do it from this basis point here, what we can see is this is right smack in the middle of the 618 Fibonacci retrace. And again, the reason I'm using that just to explain it is that here was a bull run and then you went sideways for a long period of time. That sideways resets my fibs. All right? So that means that okay, that is a base. So when you explode out of that base and make this massive move up, that's where I'm taking the fib from. So that's my starting point. The high obviously is my ending point. And you had a 618 Fibonacci retrace on the Cosby. So these are different things. And again, you might say, why who cares about the Cosby? Well, you have to because Samsung and SKHix are two massive semiconductor stocks and they play a massive role in that.
All right, let's go on to a couple other things here, guys. So let's look at SanDisk. SanDisk. I've been a big buyer. Huge amount of support. We can even I mean these are just extra lines, but this is the trend line that is just amazing. Low pivot from the beginning of the move touches here. Look at what we touched. We're seeing again a gap up. Not only that, but this is tremendous, folks. Again, you had a move to $2,350 and a collapse where we pierced $1,000 yesterday after hours. Look at how low this thing got. $970 on in the after hours yesterday. That is incredible. But great bounce. It is starting. I actually will show you where I expect the bounce to go back to. My target on this and I am long uh SanDisk right now. I don't know how long I'll stay long, but I think your max upside is right here. Pivot low to pivot low. Little head and shoulders there. And again, we should retrace to about $1300$1350. So that's a big one there. But you can go to other ones. I mean, heck, Micron filled the gap. Micron's catching a bid today. See this gap fill right here? Huge gap. That was that last blowoff top. There's your retrace into it. That stock is getting a small bounce today. And then you could even look at other names out there as well, like Applied Materials, which collapsed. Massive collapse. But look at all the support area that it came into here. I mean, just so much support in this vicinity, right? I mean, all of this. There was a gap fill again. Even below here, you have another gap there. All of this sideways chop, which was really the sideways. I mean, this was reasonable price action, right? It would go up, it would pull back, up, pull back, up, pull back, up a little bit more, pull back, up, pull back, and then here's where it exploded. So, this is your full retrace of that ridiculous move that should have never happened. We probably get a bounce back to, let's say, right in here. This pivot low, this gap fill at 5:15. So, there's opportunities here.
And listen, just because I'm saying it doesn't mean it's going to happen. But I think it's it's it's funny because there's so much negativity and fear in the semis which is the exact inverse when there was so much greed at the highs and people were jumping long when these things were like I mean again not to beat a dead horse but I still remember doing videos on Micron right around earnings when it had that big last pop which was the top. By the way, do you guys remember all those upgrades on SanDisk and Micron and all these other ones when they were like SanDisk was at north of 2,000 and these these analysts were upgrading to 3,000. When Micron was north of a,000, you were getting $1,700 $2,000 price target upgrades. That was literally the top signal. Yet these analysts, unfortunately, they're human. And there's two ways to look at that. You could say, okay, they're getting caught up in essentially the hype, so they're emotional. I think that's part of it. or is there more nefarious stuff going on where the institutions need exit liquidity? And and listen, you could argue both ways. There's probably a little truth to each one, frankly. But it is still crazy, which is why I always look at the charts. I'm not going to chase a run on Micron when it's north of a thousand. I just can't do it. I can't do it. It's like going to the supermarket and being excited because the price of eggs tripled. Like, we don't go to the supermarket be like, "Yes, eggs are $10 for a dozen. I'm gonna buy 10 cartons of eggs, you know, like think about that. Yet, for some reason in the markets when price rips, people do that. You got to get the logic, core logic. All right, guys. That is so so important. I can't stress that enough.
All right, last couple things here, guys. Um, just briefly going over Bitcoin. Um, I'll do a Bitcoin and and um video overall B, uh, BTC there, USD. I love this structure. I still think this is bullish, guys. Again, as long as we're holding this here, we need to see a break above 67,000 and then this thing should blast. All right, we'll see if that happens. But again, that is what I'm looking at, a blastoff to about 71 to 72,000. Uh yesterday, I did a video on gold. We talked about that. The Federal Reserve obviously came out, popped gold. It's still stuck in its wedge, but we got to monitor this, guys. Speaking of gold, all right, this is this is epic, guys. This is the last thing I'm going to show you today. Actually, before I do this, but this next part, holy cow, when you see this, it is going to blow your mind, right? But before I do that, I do have to just mention, guys, the Rumble Rumble wallet sponsors us here. And again, I'd be remiss to miss telling you guys how awesome I think they are. Not only because they sponsor us and pay us, but also because I've I've grown to actually like I got the app right here, and I buy my swing trades in crypto here. I do my tether and gold for swing trading since it's backed by physical. Um, you can use the code verified five to get to get $5 in free stable coins. All you got to do is press download. You download it, put that code in, they're going to give you $5 in stable coins. It's awesome. Go check it out. Use verified five is the code and then again you can use the QR code or in the description I will give you guys um the link in there to show.
Now the next thing I'm going to do here guys, this is huge. My gold institutional research report is out and you got to read it in my opinion. It's on our website. You don't need to be a paying member. You do have to have an account. So, you'll have to create an account because we, you know, the idea is, you know, we want people to show that they're dedicated, right? So, you don't have to pay for anything. It's free. It's fully free, but you just have to have an account. So, just create an account on the website. But check check this out here. Check this out, guys. This is so cool. All right. So, here's the dashboard. So when you're logged in and again you don't have to you can see obviously I have I have subscriptions because you know that's me but um essentially the dashboard is here and by the way there's so much great stuff but over here verified research reports here's the research report right here all right and then below it you have the launch the calculator this is a gold calculator that I spent literally months developing um the research report is incredible it this talks about basically to summarize this guys it basically talks talks about how there's five forces driving the next major peak uh in gold and it gives you my analysis on each of those. All right, we're talking about money supply. We're talking about the fear of fiat debasement, the debt and the dollar and real interest rates. So these are the five factors and I go through each factor in this research report guys and you can see again as it goes out this is an this is literally again institutions would come to me and they say hey could you do a research report we'll pay you a million dollars for it this is for you guys I don't do any of that nonsense my dedication is verified investing everything on there it's accessible for ever average retail investors okay so again you can go through it you can read everything why I make the case. But what's even cooler, and you can see it's legit. I mean, this is this is an in-depth research report, but then you have the calculator, guys. And the calculator I created, here's our current conditions. Here's your five forces. Debt issuance pace. Right now, we're we're issuing here in the US two trillion in debt a year. Global money supply growth, which is an intricate part of the the the gold next projection. Right now, it's at 7%. And by the way, you can move these. So you get to play around and make your own thing. We have it set on current conditions, but you can do it. Then you have uh fiat mistrust. So this is this is basically fear of the dollar ddollarization. And then you have real interest rates, right? And ultimately you can click over to Gareth's base case here, which is if you read the research report, I tell you what I expect. And my my expectations are laid out here. It flips it over to what I expect. And they're not ridiculous expectations. It's in the next five years the US is going to have to spend per year or run up the debt 2.8 trillion. It's only 08 trillion more on average over the next five years or so. But look at what it does. This is the next peak in gold. By the way, this doesn't mean the next bull market. This is when we will peak in the next bull market. And this is my average price. Basically, you have a range here, but the average I would expect between this date will be 13,000. And by the way, you can you can also there's also additional things. This is this is so right now our cycle peak is here. So if that changes, we can adjust this. You can adjust this. If you think the correction is going to be steeper, you can adjust the corrective move. Whatever you want to do. There's so many inputs here. But this is a gamecher if you are a gold investor.
All right guys, I got to get going. This is a long video. I never mean these these things to be that long. Check it out. Go to verifiedinvesting.com. And again, if you just create a free account, you can access the gold research institutional report and the calculator. Plus, don't forget, there's a ton. Look at the dashboard. There's so much free. I I have the traders putting out trade setups every day for free. I mean, we have we have literally, you know, essentially commentary from the traders. It's incredible. All right, I got to get going, guys. You guys are rock stars. Thank you for being with me on this journey. I really do appreciate it. Your kind words, your comments, it means the world to me. I thank you seriously from the bottom of my heart. It's what every day I when I rise up, I remember you guys and it gets me like pumped up to come and do these videos for you and teach and explain and give my insights. Have a good one. Take care.