Transcription
Soon on the new ATA on the indices. That's what we're going to see today. We'll take stock of gold as well as the dollar, and I think we'll take a little tour on the VIX. Just before we start, I remind you that you have the opportunity to train with us for free. It's the first link in the pinned comment to access the training and support. It's free, it brings you back to this page. You just have to click on this link, join my free Forex index trading support. You scroll down, you register on Premix BT via our partner link. It's a broker that allows you to trade forex and commodities with crypto collateral. You enter your email, your Premix ID which is located at the top right of the platform. There is a small profile logo, you hover your mouse over it, you copy the ID, you paste it into the form, you enter your Discord username, you make a deposit of a minimum of 200 dollars in crypto or by bank card, it's your capital, you can withdraw your funds whenever you wish. Once all that is done, you tick. I made a deposit, get my access. Within 24 hours, you will receive access to the complete mentorship and you will also receive access to the VIP Forex index on Discord. This is where we exchange, share our analyses, and progress together. So, to come back to the Nasdaq, I think the hunt for the all-time high will allow us to reach the ATH. Uh, I think it remains an objective. Now, I repeat, it's the reaction above the ATH that will be important for me. There are big events coming up. There's the China USA deadline on November 1st, and there's also the CPI tomorrow with the forecasts that have already come out. 3.1% forecast. So we'll have to see these results a bit. But what leads me to think that we could head towards the ATH is simply here the stop hunt that we had. I'll put my line in black here. So the stop hunt, the push, and then we had a new stop hunt of the lowest point of Monday, and we also returned to the discount zone of this movement. Hop, I finally did the theme like this. And so for me, this discount zone below the all-time high was a good zone to aim for the ATH in my opinion. I think we can aim for the ATH from the tag of the all-time high. Also, the IFVG serves as support. So for me, as long as the price maintains this IFVG, there are strong probabilities of reaching a new ATH. And so when I see here the capture of Monday's low, which is right here, yes, right here. Hop, for me, this can be a precursor to the push towards the ATH. We still leave a large buy side. A lot of relative highs. If we were really marking the beginning of a bearish movement, it's possible that it's a bearish movement, that we are literally going down again, but I still think we would have had a cleanup of the ATH before. I have the impression that we are consolidating this buy side, perhaps for tomorrow's CPI, potentially. So that's a bit my bias. On the other hand, from a technical point of view, if we look at H4 in confluence, we had our little FVG here too, which has been closed. So rather an interesting zone. I don't know if in H12 we had anything. Yes, also the H12 fair value gap. So, well, it remains an interesting zone. After, we'll have to see the resolution of the H4 Fair Value Gap here concerning the S&P 500. We'll see if we have the same reading or not. So here, liquidity grab, OK, volume imbalance, the IFVG, it's exactly the same thing. I take the discount zone of this movement. We haven't come to it. Perhaps we would therefore have a hunt for Wednesday's low, potentially, before trying to go and make the push for the ATH, but that still seems to be the objective. And on the S&P 500 side, we have approximately the same zone with the IFVG here again, which is still maintained. Well, for me, the idea is to reach a new ATH. After, we'll see if that's indeed the case or not. Like the Nasdaq in H4, we are working on the last FVG right here. In hourly, what did we clean up? We cleaned up the stops of the last order block. Well, for me, theoretically, there is still a good liquidity grab here to trigger, why not, our push towards the ATH. That seems to be the direction of the markets. We'll see if the VIX confirms this or not. So, the VIX for the moment, no liquidity grab here. A VIX that has been well rejected for now. Well, the monthly close will confirm or not if we indeed have a rejection. For me, the major delivery objectives remain the lowest point of 2024. After, perhaps a VIX that will make a stronger retracement and more stress and turbulence on the markets. But for now, the VIX is not really triggering any signals. We can see that we have rejected the last daily Fair Value Gap. So as long as we don't break this daily FVG, I'll delete this. We can potentially expect a bearish continuation of the, quite simply, of the VIX to try to come and work on this FVG a bit, see to continue to fall to clean up our annual lows of 2024 and the low of Q1 2025. So always have a volatility that is reducing, and that would be favorable to try to push the ATH on the indices concerning the dollar before moving on to gold. The dollar, which for the moment has held its last low well. So the dynamic is still bullish here, right? Low, high, ascending, there's no problem. For me, the idea is still to try to deliver the previous quarterly high. And likewise, as long as we haven't delivered here, well, we can't really rely on whether we will have a bearish quarter for the dollar with the objective of possibly the lowest point of the year 2025 at the end of the quarter. So the beginning of next quarter, if we take the previous low on Lilo, for me that would really be, I really think it's the last dip of the last dip before a bullish Q1 2026. If we take the previous quarterly high and the market doesn't reverse, well, I think we'll go and make our little bit higher and we'll have a bullish dollar this quarter. But well, it's a bit complicated for me to get reversal signals, liquidity grabs, breaker blocks. For now, this flow is still bullish for me. So we'll see if we manage to resolve this daily fair value gap or not. If that's the case, it could possibly be the first signal to push the previous quarterly high. But for now, well, the indices don't really care about this dollar push. So for now, I'd say it's okay. On the other hand, gold is undergoing its first correction. There was a first big dip. Well, after all, it's to be expected. After such strong pushes. For me, there's nothing extraordinary. We had talked about a repricing of this FVG. We are in it. Which for the moment is maintained. Now, what I see is the break of the last bullish candle on Gold, a bearish FVG that has formed. This could be the beginning of a consolidation or a reversal. So, it's important to note that there is an order block. And as you know, with order blocks, there are either two things, either a breaker block, bullish continuation, or rejection of the OB, well, three things, rejection of the OB or stop hunt, but it's the same thing with rejection of the order block. This happens quite often that we come to take the stops of the OB before marking a potential reversal. So I think we need to be careful with gold. We have our first signal, we were wondering, well, we are in extension zones and so on. It can correct at any moment. That's the case now, we are entering this corrective movement. Will it go deeper than this or not? That's what we'll have to observe, but for me, there's a first signal that will mark a pause in this gold rally. And now, the setups that we could have had in daily FVG, for example, become much less clear and less probable. When your price goes up, forms a small dip but nothing more in FVGs, it's a very good location and a very good time to position yourself. On the other hand, when you have a reversal candle that marks a change in state of delivery with the order block forming, it makes conditions much more complicated. And so, if you have a bearish bias, your location is either the daily FVG of the OB or the bid of the OB. If you have a bullish bias, for me, this is where you should engage, possibly in the last FVG, there is an immediate weekly imbalance. Theoretically, there is what's needed if we look at the chart like this weekly to try to make bullish continuation. But first, we would need to maintain the daily FVG, which is the case for now. But above all, we would need to break this order block to maintain your bullish bias. OK, so a nice zone has been reached. Now, well, if a breaker forms here, well, why not come back to work on our daily FVG, or potentially come back to look for our buy side, which is simply the high of this week, which was Monday's high. Also, observe carefully, you have an OB here. You also have, I think it's the previous daily high if I'm not mistaken. That's right. So what could happen is a hunt for this OB, rejection in the daily FVG, and bearish continuation. If we are really marking a high here, the beginning of a bearish movement, it could form after such strong volatility. It can happen, but honestly, I would be very surprised if we did that again. I think we should expect consolidation now on gold and a decrease in volatility rather than a movement where we completely destroy all the bullish work that has been done. I would be very surprised, unless there is a big dollar push. But I think after such a strong volatility peak, we should expect a reduction in volatility, and this OB confirms it in my opinion. So I wouldn't be surprised if the price now starts to form a sort of contraction via this order block. So I think the best is over for gold. There have been 2 months of intensive push here. I think this intensive push is now over and we should start to consolidate. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to hit the thumbs up, subscribe if you haven't already, leave a comment. Thanks to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you. We'll meet again later for another video or tomorrow for the next macro review.