Transcription
Hello everyone. So today, we'll be conducting our weekly analysis. You already know where we begin, right? On a weekly basis, right? We begin with the economic calendar, right? This is where we will get a feel for the market, you know, before the weekly cycle, as you know, even began, right? Which it just did. 6 PM Eastern Standard Time, Monday. You can see that we have no high impact news events, right? And we mostly pay attention to USD news, GBP, and Euro, right? So you already know what to do. I don't have to go over that again.
So Monday, we have no news. Does that mean that you should not trade Monday? That's not what it means, right? The only thing that the news will do to the price action is it will create a sequential SMT, or it will shift, right, market structure, which occurs when there is no sequential SMT and price runs below or low, right? So that's like when you have three of the triads just running below AOW and, you know, producing symmetrical price action, or there's already sequential SMT and the news will just allow price to expand in the direction that it is already on its way, which is important to understand, right?
So here, Tuesday, again, there is no news, right? Wednesday, we have news at 8:30 AM, right? So this is CPI week, and it is very important to understand, right, that right, the second week or the second full week of each month, which is Q2, that's where we have CPI. That's always where CPI will be, right? It won't be in the third, in the third week, and it won't be in the fourth. It will be in the second full week of the month, on either Tuesday or Wednesday, right? So here, already, we can expect a great deal of volatility, right, on Wednesday, due to the fact that we already have CPI here, right? So if there is, for example, sequential SMT on Tuesday and Wednesday, right, and there is CPI after this sequential has already been established, then we could just expect, you know, a candle to go in the direction of the order flow that has, has already been established. At 2 PM, in the afternoon session, we have FOMC meeting minutes, right, which is not, you know, the FC, which is usually, you know, volatile. But if there's, you know, a sequence of SMT between the after session on the New York session, then we could expect volatility, and that's what's important, right? You need to see sequential SMT occur, right, before these news events. If price will just go in a straight line up or down, right, there will usually be a lack of retracements. Whenever we have sequential SMT below our, you know, before these events.
On Thursday, we have a lot of volatility, right? We have volatility at 8:15, we have volatility at 8:30 AM, 8:45, and 1, basically 1 PM, right? Which this is the 30-year bond action, which will affect the bond market, which will affect the interest rate triad, which will affect the Forex market, which will affect the index futures triad, right? So most of the volatility will be spread between Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely where we will see either the high or the low form, right? So on Wednesday and Thursday, it's more than likely where you want to rest most of your attention if you're an intraday trader. And which time frame is the best for trading intraday? You already know, the one hour time frame, right? And if you decide that you need better entry than that, then you drop into a lower time frame cycle, which is the daily cycle, and you look for something to form on the 15-minute time frame.
On Friday, we have news at 2 AM, GBP, right? And we have news at 1:00 AM. Not 1:00 AM, my bad, 10:00 AM, which is USD news. So this is, you know, my favorite format to see, right? When we have high news events after Monday price action. Why? Because after Monday, we already have the true week open established, which is 6 PM Monday Eastern Standard Time, right here, right?
First, we will look at the interest rate markets, right? Interest rate market triad just comprises of T-bond futures, 10-year treasury notes, and the five-year treasury notes, right? As you guys can see, currently, right, this is the second week of the month, right? We have we're close to piercing below this one, and we've already traded below it, which we could see price drip lower before we, you know, see price spring higher. And if there is, for example, sequential SMT, right, between this triad and the whole, not just the individual assets, but this triad on the whole, where as we can see price drift lower, right, and then a lower time frame sequential SMT occur, which would activate a higher time frame sequential SMT, we could see price gravitate to these highs, right? And why would these highs stand out to us? Due to the fact that, you know, this is a low resistance liquidity run. And what makes this a low resistance liquidity run is the fact that these highs are symmetrical, right? This is not SMT, but they are symmetrical.
Looking at the dollar and comparing it to the euro and the pound, right, we can see that we basically got the price action that we have been, you know, wanting for almost a month now, or yeah, almost a month now, around three, three weeks, two and a half weeks, right? So we had price trade down into this fair value gap right here, right, and then expand, right? Last week, on the opening of this candle, we expect, we still expected price to go above this high, and we expected price to drift lower here and here as well, and we expected the euro to reverse. And why did we expect that, right? And why would we even expect that? Due to the fact that we had sequential SMT here, right? So this was the high of the previous quarter right here. And on this candle, right, we had an opening above this high right here, right? And it does not matter, right, if the open occurs on the first, second, the first minute after the quarter has begun. As long as there is sequential SMT, you can expect some type of reversal.
Also, in this candle right here, Tuesday, you can see that this close is above this close, and this high is above this high here. We have this low below this low, and I believe this closes slightly below this one as well. Meanwhile, this candle right here failed to go below this low here. You can see that we had this low, you know, basically symmetrical with this low, which would confirm sequential SMT, right? So at times, for example, if you are using the higher time frame cycles, right, and you don't need to, you know, drop down to see these things, but if you are new, it is better to do that, right? So just as how you have, you know, this occurring here between the last quarter of the year and the current quarter of the year, right, you can have this occurring on the, you know, during the last week and the current week's cycles, right? So currently, there, you know, we need to see displacement first of all, and obviously, we need to see that followed by sequential SMT, or the other way around, right? So currently, there is no clear draw on liquidity, right? Why? We need to see sequential SMT before we do anything. That's what we need to see, right? So ultimately, right, we could see either one of these wicks, right, the high or the low being breached and setting up something that will, you know, give us a bias, right? Currently, there is the below the market. But due to the fact that there was sequential SMT here, we would more than likely be gravitated to this high after getting, you know, bullish sequential SMT, right? The same thing goes for here. If we get, you know, bearish sequence of SMT, then we will be looking for a weaker dollar, a stronger euro, and a stronger pound. But we need SMT first, right?
Right, which is in line with this higher time frame SMT here. We have the E-mini S&P Futures, the NQ 100 Futures, and the IM Futures, right? So I'll take all the lips. We'll go to the daily time frame and we'll begin here. Whenever you see, right, either, you know, either one of the assets within the triad that you're looking at consolidating like this, right? So at times, you will not, you will not see all of them consolidating, right? But you will see one that is in a tight range, such as this, right? So here on the daily time frame, you can see that we have no closes above this close. We do have a wick, but we don't, we just see these as equal highs. No close above this close, and here we don't have a close below this close either, right? So price is within a range. So due to the fact that we have, you know, price looking like this, we could expect a bearish dollar during the course of this week. Then we could expect price to, you know, take out these highs right here before, you know, returning to the range or going lower. What would confirm that we would be going lower if we take out these highs, right? Is if we have, obviously, if we have sequential SMT, and you must understand that the SMT must be sequential, right, before we even consider anything. If there is a higher time frame sequential SMT, though, and there is a lower time frame sequence after, that would confirm an SMT which is not sequential, right? So if we have price break above this high, and this breaks above this high, but this doesn't break above this high, but we have lower time frame sequential SMT afterwards, and that would confirm that we will be returning to the range. And it is not, you know, random that we have this type of price action right here, right before CPI week, right? It's not. Price was designed to do this exact thing, right? So you can usually see whenever we have a big move underway, right? But more times than not, you will need to be looking at the three triads and comparing them to each other, right? You must understand that one triad will usually, one out of the three triads, right, will usually tip its hand, right? So here, it doesn't really look like a, a consolidation, right? Because you have this price trading, trading above here, here trading below here, but here you have a tight consolidation. Here, it doesn't really look like a clear consolidation, but yeah, we, you can see that we have relatively equal lows below here, which seems obvious, but we need sequence to SMT to, you know, establish the movement that we will get the next large range within, right? Again, it's not me being two-sided, right? If you're studying and you understand what I'm talking about, I don't have to draw lines, right? If I draw lines, people screenshot and then just post it in their group. You need to be watching to understand, right? And this is the best way to teach. No lines, no drawing on the chart unless it's necessary.
So yes, let's speak about this again, which is important, right? At times, for example, you have consolidation right here. That's a good sign. That means that we will have large range movements coming up, right? So if this happened with the dollar, but the euro was like this and the pound was like this, which seemed that it's not entirely consolidating, right? Then we would expect large range moves for. And again, if we had one of the interest rate triads just consolidating while the other two are not, that's a sign that we would have what? A large range move coming up.
So here, right, you can see that we have buy-side liquidity above here, right? We have sell-side liquidity above this high, this high, this high, and this high. And it's so obvious, right? It's very obvious. We have sell-side equity below this low, right? Currently, we're range bound. If price falls below this low and there is sequential S&T, which this low would be the low of the previous week, right? Then we could expect price to rally, right? So if we have SMT between, you know, these three bullish SMT during this week, or if we have price break above these highs and we have bearish SMT, then we could expect price to come back within the range. But it's very, you know, important to understand that you must not force price to do anything. You must wait for price to tip its hand to you, right? So currently, right now, you don't want to go in on short or long. If you're short and you win, are you long or you win the trade, then you were still gambling, and then you're bound to do it again. You need to be following a rule-based conceptual method, which is what we talk about. And remember what we talk about, symmetrical highs and symmetrical lows, and unsymmetrical highs and unsymmetrical lows. That's where below unsymmetrical lows is where we have the most liquidity, where sequential SMT is most likely to occur.
So as you guys can see, below this low, we have this low higher than this low, but this low is slightly lower than this low, and this one is higher than this one. So this is a real liquidity pool. And here, this is a real liquidity pool as well. And this is a real liquidity pool as well. This is a real liquidity pool as well. You understand? Here is a real liquidity pool as well. And here, and here as well. Due to the fact that, right, these highs, you can see that the ES breached this high, NASDAQ breached this high, but the Dow did not breach this high. So there is an immense amount of liquidity above the high which breached this high, and for the Dow, the high which failed to breach this high. So what would we want to see? Either price just, you know, trade below here, close, right? And currently, we're looking at the monthly cycle. So for the monthly cycle, you will need a 4-hour closure, right? Not a 1-hour closure, a 4-hour, 4-hour closure, as you guys can see right here, right? And we will use this to demonstrate what we're talking about now.
Right here, we have a higher high here, right? A higher high here. No, a higher low here, my bad. And here we had higher lows as well. But here we had a lower low, right? But pay attention, there was no closure here, right? Price just wicked below this low. And remember what we said about whenever we see price just wick below the low and, you know, price is already being delivered in the direction that it's supposed to be delivered in, right? So here we had sequential SMT. There was a closure above this side. There was a closure above this here. There wasn't a closure above this one, right? Then we had price drop. Whenever you see this happen, it's just price giving you an extra entry, entry again, right? This is just an entry again. So right here, you shouldn't be looking at this as bullish, why? Because it's just the wicks. We're focused on the closures. This was a shift of market structure, right? But this one is a predetermined shift of market structure, right? So usually you have price shift like this, then there was the liquidity above this high, right? And remember that we need sequential SMT or SMT to give us an explosive move. So right here, when we see price failed to break above this side was actually a sign that we're, you know, extremely bearish and we're going to expect price action to gravitate to these lows after we have SMT above these highs right here, right? So SMT, no SMT, price broke above this high. But pay attention to what we had happening here. This is Wednesday's price action. This is Thursday's price action. If you look at the chart right here, well, I will drop down to a lower time frame, right? We had sequential SMT here, right? And you need to focus on the closures, right? Because if you just focus on, you know, this high right here, which seems to be the highest high, right? And not the closure, then you would get distracted, right? This is the New York session, right? This is the New York session. The highest close of the New York session, right? And it's just a bonus whenever you see the wick trade above the wick. You need to be focused on the closures also. Yes, you need to incorporate, you know, the wicks whenever there's a closure, but the closures are what's important. And then you have this right here, right? So after we had this, which you can still see here, even on this time frame, a lower time frame, what do you see? There is no close below here. It's just a wick, right? So price just wicked here, and then this happened. The Dow didn't trade above this high. ES traded above these highs. There was already higher time frame bearish SMT. What else? The Dow, the not the Dow, the ES didn't. ES traded above this time, right? But the most important thing, which is why, you know, a market maker model would, you know, come into effect, is because of things like this, right? So here, when everyone of us would look at this and say, oh, this was sequential SMT. No, it wasn't, because there wasn't a close. And this is, this is what I've been stressing for the past few weeks, right? You need a close, not just price just wicks below it and it's going up. Oh, I'm going to just buy. No, no, no, no. Right here, right, for example, this is how I would say, right? Because there's no close, so there was nothing happened here. The wicks will lie to you, but the bodies will not lie to you, right? Price will gravitate to these lows whenever smart money reversal occurs, which happens after there is two, two SMTs. So it doesn't even matter if, right, the SMT right here was sequential or not. But once we have this SMT followed by a lower time frame sequential SMT, then it confirms it, right? So here we have this close above this one, right here. We have this close above this one. And here we have now this open above this one. This open above this one. But in the Dow, we have this open below this one, right? And we would be paying attention to the 1:00 open, right? So here at 13:13:00, this would be sequential SMT right here. This is when you know the move would kick in. Also, below here, you can see that we do not have. We have a similar, we have similar price action to what's here, right? We don't have a close below here. There is no close here. So this is essentially, this is liquidity, right? This is liquidity, and this is liquidity as well. But there is nothing right here to do right here within this range. And this range, if price breaks above here, yes, we can look for something. It does. If it breaks below here, yes, we can look for something as well. But currently, we're like literally waiting right now.
Another thing that you must understand, you should understand, right, is that more times than not, right, whenever you have, you know, one of the triads completely going out of order, completely fluctuating, that is a sign. But more times than not, within the interest market triad, right, you will have the five-year T-note, you know, doing something it's not supposed to. Within the Forex market triad, you will have the pound doing something it's not supposed to. Within the index futures triad, you will have the Dow doing something it's not supposed to. For example, right here at the open, you can see that this is already a done close candle. But this one is up while these ones are, you know, in order. You will get the most explosive price action when you have three of them in order. But at times, whenever you have just two, it is fine. But it is low probability, and you probably won't have that high, you know, amount of volatility to support your trade. But you can still use it. For example, right here again, this is something else. I'll take these off. For example, right here, right, when, let me use the cross. Right here on, I believe it was this candle, right? This candle right here, we had the Dow, you know, showing an up close. But we had the NASDAQ showing a down close, and we had the ES closing, you know, lower to the low than the high. Afterwards, we had sequential SMT, right? So here, while we see this happening, it's nothing until we have sequential SMT, right? And usually, sequential SMT, it will happen whenever you have price close below the low, right, or close below the lowest close, right? In one asset class, you'll see price close below the lowest close here, right? And close below these closes. These were equal closes, which is important. Right here, you have price close above this close, but it wicks into the opening of the candle, which, you know, would be the strong leg, you know, the wick, per se, that propels price higher. Here, we didn't even trade below this low, right? Due to the fact that we had this candle here, right, literally showing the opposite price action of these candles in the correlated asset classes. This was already a sign that we would, you know, be going a bit higher. And whenever this happens with, you know, either the five-year T-note, the, you know, GBP USD, or here, the Dow, then the Dow will usually be stronger, but it will be leading the correlated asset classes, right? So here we have the, the low of the week here. But the low of the week here was Tuesday, right? Which is what we usually will have whenever, you know, we are trying to gauge the low of the week. The low of the week, a high probability low of the week within the triads will not occur on the same day. It will either be between Friday. No, it either between be between Monday and Tuesday, either Tuesday and Wednesday, Wednesday and Thursday, or Thursday and Friday. And with that being said, I hope that you guys took something away from this. If you realize, I, I usually wait until I get to the end before we, you know, begin to speak about the real things. And, you know, to recap, you guys can see where the obvious liquidity is. And most, more times than not, the obvious liquidity which will, you know, have an influence on price will be obvious in one of the triads, but not to others. So due to the fact that we have these equal highs here, then this would be this high right here in the S&P 500 would be of importance to us. And this high right here in the Dow would be of importance to us. But first, we need to see, you know, sequential SMT to give us something to do. And I hope that you guys, you know, found everything here insightful, because we did talk about some things that are, you know, new, some things that you should have taken notes off, some things that you should go over the video and take notes off. Don't just watch this one one time, okay? I hope that you guys have a wonderful day. We'll be back for sure on Wednesday, where we will be probing the market, right, for the high or the low of the week, talking about, you know, just things that I have in mind for you guys to make sense to talk about it now, because you've never heard about it. That being said, I hope you guys have a wonderful day.
All you want to me your session. I am the Maring t on burning the stream. How many times can I ask you? How many days can I go without you?
Show.
I'm tting S. I can.
Fire. How many days can I go with?