Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you have the pan. Very happy to find you for this Bitcoin journal this Monday, November 11, 2025, in front of a cryptomap that is rather green, rather pretty. Since yesterday, there has been good news that has come out. I talked about it this morning in the news video that I send you every morning with this end of the American shutdown, even if it's a bit provisional, with these famous 2000 dollars that must fall from the sky for almost all Americans. Well, that's nice. So the cryptos finished Sunday in the green. This Monday is also not too bad, even if for an hour or two there has been a small red candle, not very pretty. The stock market, we have Europe that is in a magnificent green. We have the United States too, the big tech companies that are pushing well with Nvidia doing +3.32%, all that is good.
So for the month of November for now, it's still slightly red on Bitcoin. November is one of the best months of the year with an average increase of 42%. However, be careful, this is skewed by 2013 where there was a 449% increase. So basically, we'd have to do the stats without 2013, you see, but the rest is still, let's say, quite green.
So, the market is still in fear. It's no longer in extreme fear. It has just moved into fear. Will this little dip we had at $98,000 where we were in extreme fear be the sign of a good bottom? In any case, don't forget that a bottom takes time, like here in April, it takes several weeks. So, don't be surprised at all if we come out of extreme fear, return to it a little later, and then push up. As long as we stay in a bearish channel, boom, the next thing will be an explosion. As usual, it's the same tune for altcoins.
So some will tell you, "Oh my god, if you draw the trendline here, touch, touch, touch, touch" and suddenly look, I zoom, I zoom, it broke the trendline, it's retesting and it's off. Boom, zoom in. There. Some would say, you'd say we broke it, retested it, and it's pushing, you see this trendline that was touched quite a few times. Well, I'm not a big fan of trendlines, I look more at the structure. If I take the structure itself and forget the trendlines, don't forget that this is a potential wave A, if you like, and that well, all the rest is a potential wave B, and that we could be in C, which is happening quietly.
So, be careful because this is still an ascending channel, and ascending channels are not pretty. They have a higher probability of falling. So for now, the structure is still a bit bearish. We would need a good surge to move away, and then things would look good. Basically, what would be needed? We would need altcoins to start breaking this high point around $751 billion. Basically, they need to break the 200-day moving average, which is rejecting the price today. But hey, that's good news. Instead of crashing, breaking the lower Bollinger band and falling with a slide effect, you see, we have re-entered the Bollinger band and so we are attacking this 200-day moving average again here around 733 billion. If we manage to pass it, things will look good. And if we pass the 50-day moving average at 780, then things will look even better. But be careful, for now this ascending channel is a rather bearish structure, okay, which has a higher probability of a small dip downwards, because for the structure to be complete, it unfortunately needs to break the bottom of the wick.
So, isn't it this channel, boom, that will break the bottom of the wick to finalize this structure before moving on? It remains possible. We need to be wary of that, okay? Even if the bulls are pushing a bit, the RSI is going up. You see the bulls are there. But beware of this small ascending channel for our beloved Bitcoin, which is also trying to turn red. Well, sorry, trying to go up again. So for now, we're just being careful. There's a gap to fill at $104,220. Why is there a gap? Because for futures contracts, the price closed at $104,220 on Friday. And since we pushed on Sunday, well, a gap was created between Friday and Sunday. So this gap is there. To fill it, Bitcoin needs to drop by about -0.96%, you see. So it's not much. So if Bitcoin decides to take a little trip to $104,220, you'll know why. There's this small gap to close.
Also, regarding liquidations, you can see that around $104,000, there's also a bit to eat. It can eat, it can eat up to $100,000. Well, to the north, there's a bit more, but it's less violent than last time. We see that to the north, there are quite a few positions that have been closed with the good news that came out this weekend. Because you can see that before, to the north, you had twice as much as to the south, but now quite a few positions have been closed, especially above $110,000 because they took profits. It's normal, right? If you opened a short between 110 and 120, you have two good news over the weekend, the end of the shutdown is coming, and $2,000 are going to fall from the sky into the pockets of Americans, which is very bullish. Well, you close your short, you take profits, so it's not at all unreasonable to see shorts being closed here.
So, regarding our beloved Bitcoin, we are being careful. Yes, the structure here can be validated at any moment and take off, but this remains an ascending channel that is not pretty. Okay? So it's like altcoins. As long as we have a structure that is an ascending channel like this, beware, boom, we can have a nuclear descent towards 92, clearly. So, we need to be careful. This is a not very pretty structure. It's a regular, and therefore it has a higher probability of falling. To invalidate this type of regular, we would need to see Bitcoin push, push, and especially push towards levels above, particularly the old highs here around $111,000. If Bitcoin starts to push, push, and break this old high, well, that will invalidate the regular because we'll already see it pushing, and then we can say, well, is the structure not finished, little A, little B, C, and there. Is it not finished like this? What? You don't know, maybe hop, this is the end. There, maybe the structure is just this. It did A, B, C, and boom, it's off to new all-time highs. That remains very possible to finish now and take off. But since there's this little channel, as long as it's there, we can have a descent because it's impulse, correction, and continuation. There. So, let's be wary of this small ascending channel here, which is rather a structure that has a higher probability of being bearish.
Regarding liquidity, there's something to be found up to $114,000. But if Bitcoin starts to push to reach $114,000, well, it means we've validated the regular, and there's a chance we'll even make a new all-time high.
Regarding Ethereum. So Ethereum has a gap to fill at $3485.5. It's the gap that was created between the CME closing on Friday and the rise that occurred with the Bod, the perpetual, which is open 24/7. So Ethereum needs to drop by about -1.08% to close this gap. Well, we shouldn't be surprised if Ethereum goes to $3485, knowing that at $3485, it would eat this small cluster. So, will Ethereum just eat the gap and the small cluster and then push? So it's a Bitcoin that will also close its gap at $104,220 and then push. That remains possible. Ethereum has the same structure, rather bearish than Bitcoin. Here, we're careful, ascending channel. As long as it stays in an ascending channel, we can have a descent towards 2853. If Bitcoin goes towards 92, Ethereum will go to 2853. So for now, we're quite happy. There's good news and everything, it's good, it's pushing, but it's not pretty. I'm putting a warning on this type of structure. Ascending channel, you know the tune, impulse, correction, continuation. To be able to say it's good, we invalidate this ascending channel, and it won't go all the way down, well, we'd need to break levels, and which levels? Well, for example, break them. It's like Bitcoin, I'll take a small yellow line here. I'll do like Bitcoin here. It's the high here around $3920. So if Solana, Solana, sorry, if Ethereum starts to push, boom, boom, and breaks, it's around $3916, but that invalidates the bearish channel. It means it's pushing. And then, we can say, wow, things are looking good. Because if Ethereum starts to break its old highs, it means that ultimately we've validated the regular. Little A, little B, little C, and boom, explosion, or $4960 minimum. There, bullish scenario, the big rise. There, regular validated. Bearish scenario is that no, it's not over. And this channel tells us, "No, guys, it's so not over that I'm going to fall." So we're scrutinizing with our bulging eyes. Will this structure validate or invalidate by having sought the highs? For now, Ethereum is being rejected by its Kijun at 3650, which is not good. If it passes this Kijun at 3150, things will look good. The bears are getting tired, so ah, it could be, it could be. Well, we'll know quickly. There's there's there's something to eat up to 3800, there are 2 billion to eat. So maybe it will want to eat all that up there.
Now, regarding Solana. So Solana, it's the same tune, everyone has the same structure. Well, so here Solana, this ascending channel which is not pretty at all, which has a higher probability of falling to reach 121. To be able to say that things are looking good, well, it's like its peers, it needs to reach the levels above, that is to say, the old high here, for example, at 188. If it does that, things will look rather good. That would mean we've finished little A, little B, little C, and now it's pushing towards, if it pushes, well, Solana's old highs, that is to say, at least 237 to validate the regular. So for now, we'll see if the channel validates and everyone falls down, we take the elevator or the slide and boom, it's off, the blood red that will sting, or else everyone pushes a bit, breaks the old highs, and then things will look very, very good, you see.
Well, knowing that the bears are also getting tired on Solana, we have a bullish crossover that will soon be on the MACD. Well, we're trying to keep a little hope regarding liquidations. So, Solana has no gap, okay. However, it has something ugly to reach up to about 158. There's much more liquidity to the south to seek than to the north. So, won't Ethereum go to fill its gap to eat a bit below? Bitcoin to fill its gap to eat a bit below? Solana has no gap, but it will still eat some cake, all red like everyone else, and then it will take off again. That remains very possible.
And to finish with XRP. So XRP, it's doing this. Well, some will tell you, look, I drew the trendline here, and look, it's breaking the trendline, it's retesting. That's to the moon, you see. There, I break the trendline, I retest, and poof, to the moon. Well, maybe, maybe it's XRP that's telling everyone, "Hey, we're done with the decline, now we're going up." Maybe now, because if I remove this, there's still a potential regular here, okay? So with A, the little B, the little C, boom, which could be the descent. So like its peers, be careful as long as we have this structure, this ascending structure, hell can return to pour down on our heads, you see, a field of meteorites. Well, a rain rather, not a field. Well, and so here it will be smooth sailing. XRP would need to explode, and the 50 and 200 moving averages, which have crossed here around 262, and then things will really look good. Anyway, if it explodes, 262. To be precise, for XRP to really look very good, it needs to break around 70, let's say 70. They start to make a comeback, break them, we start to put a cross on the potential regular falling to the ground, if you want. So it's like Solana, like Ethereum, like Bitcoin. After that, it's pretty, it's regaining the 50 on the RSI, the bulls are coming back here. So it's rather pretty what we have today, clearly, we have to say it. However, regarding liquidity, ah, it's ugly for XRP, because well, it has a lot of liquidity to the south waiting. So, it has no gap to the south. However, it could descend, you see, to eat all that. And who would have eaten all that up to at least 224? Up to 220, well, that would be the regular here. If it falls, bam, bam, pam, it's a minimum of 20. Normally, if the regular falls, it will seek below 206. So, we need to be vigilant. Let's hope it doesn't validate the regular, otherwise everyone is going back to hell to eat the liquidity to the south. If the regular is invalidated for everyone, this little channel, it's off. And then, hop, let's go, we're resuming a small bullish trend, and that will please the stock market.
So, for now, it's okay. There's a bit of red lingering, but it's not much. Nvidia, beautiful green, +3.28%, that's very good. Google also +2.68%, that's good. Tesla is pushing. Well, AMD is pushing. We have the big tech companies that are in winter, as the government is still shut down. No macro figures this week. Microeconomics will be quite dense, but no magnificent figures, no big tech, no big capitalization that risks moving the markets, but we'll have a few small things here and there that will tell us a bit if Americans are consuming. There you go, for those who follow microeconomics, for those who like Disney. Disney will release its results on Thursday morning. Well, everyone doesn't care, but it's just to mention it.
Well, at the stock market level, so the S&P 500, well, that's beautiful green. Now I'm zooming in, but it's like usual, you know the tune, look, it's like, well, it opened higher. Why did it open higher? Because on Sunday, with the good news, we found an agreement, an agreement until January to end the shutdown, plus the $2,000 falling from the sky. Well, people all pressed the buy, buy, buy, buy button for the weekend, the markets opened, and hop, it created a bullish gap. So, this is a big green candle, but TradingView is poorly designed. You see, it should be a beautiful green candle like this to show, well, that it's a beautiful green candle. So, the S&P 500 had a big green day, you see. But it's simple, if I look at the performances, you see, hop here on the right. So the S&P 500 today is +0.75% and the Nasdaq +1.32%. So that's not bad at all, you see. So everything is green here. NVIDIA +3.33%, Alphabet +1.08%, Google +2.86%, Tesla +4.23%, the Nasdaq and SP are pushing in the green. Gold also +2.26%, everyone is pushing today with the good news that came out this weekend. Gold is also resuming its course a bit with its cousin silver and its cousin copper, which is following a bit. The barrel is still struggling a bit, gas is still in "to the moon" mode. Crypto stocks are doing a bit. Well, it's a shame because crypto stocks opened higher, all of them opened higher, you see, and unfortunately, bam, they fell, so they are being sold off right now, it's a bit of a shame.
Regarding the bond market, there's some buying of US 10-year bonds and others too. And the dollar, well, it's doing nothing today, a slight green, but nothing significant.
Well, so basically, we had good news this weekend. Is this good news the start of a reversal that will last a week or more? It remains possible. But to be able to say that, we would need this ascending channel that everyone is drawing to be invalidated. That would need to be invalidated. So Bitcoin needs to push to reach above 111, and then it will be good because, beware, we can always have bam, the nuclear descent. Well, we'll see. In any case, each day will bring its new set of data. Thank you for listening, friends, I send kisses and we'll talk tomorrow, bye bye. [Music]