Transcription
Hello everyone. I trust that you're having a wonderful week so far. NFP week. We had a lot of volatility this week already, and it's not even over, which we did talk about before the week even began.
Anyways, today I will be giving you guys some tips on how to use seasonal tendencies, right? For the market on a whole. I usually pay pay attention to the dollar index for my cross analysis. So, in regard to any index, if it's the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, then I still use the US dollar, right? The reason why I use the US dollar is because it, well, it gives me a better reading for than using the actual seasonal tendency. I use, I do use them, but like, just secondhand, right?
So, for example, you can see that when we usually get close to February, the US dollar usually rallies. Well, the US dollar usually rallies throughout February, right? And due to the fact that the index futures are currencies such as Euro USD, GBP USD, gold, for example, they, they move in the opposite direction of the US dollar, right? The US dollar is very important when it comes to analysis. I just got to say that again, right? Just so you understand. And when this has a bullish month in regard to seasonal tendencies, I usually look for the opposite to happen in currencies or asset classes which move in the opposite direction of the US dollar, right?
So, for example, the S&P, ES, NASDAQ, or NQ during February, I would become bearish due to the fact that the US dollar is usually bullish during this time. Hopefully, you can understand this. And what is the real trigger is whenever I see daily SMT divergence, right? Which, if you know you're new or if you're still having an issue with identifying that, we'll go through all of that. Don't worry.
So, right here in March, where the dollar usually tops, I would be looking for a reversal in Euro USD, GBP USD, the NASDAQ, expected them to go higher when the dollar is supposed to go lower. Same thing here. I just want to see them moving in the opposite direction of where, of where the dollar is going. Right here, same thing. This, during this year, we could literally see the dollar start rallying again after dropping a few, right? And we could see currencies and so on go lower, just based on this, right?
So, I'll show you guys how we really get in sync with the seasonal tendencies, right? Right here, you can see that our analysis from this week has played out flawlessly. I say flawlessly, I mean everything was perfect, right? So, for seasonal tendencies to be in sync with price action, there must be SMT divergence, and we must be using IPAs, six a day look back, and 60 day cash forward. The last 6 to, uh, January 23rd, I believe. Right here, this is 60 days ahead of the previous low, which caused the sentiment shift, which sent price rallying for over three months now, right?
So, you guys can go back and look at that time. The time would be, it was a Friday, the 27th of October, 2023, right? Where a, where price formed a major low across many, many asset classes at the same time, around a time when the US dollar made a signif, formed a significant high, right? So, I remember I was telling you guys that after this day, right here, I'll be looking for SMT. So, whenever we see an SMT on the daily time frame, frame, or the four-hour time frame, I would expect prices to fall, right? And we have seen that today, well, this week, right? And I gave you guys this beforehand, so this is not hindsight, right? Exactly as I said, I told you guys when I literally told you guys that SMT was going to form before it even formed, right? I told you guys that price should not go below these lows before it goes above these highs in regard to the S&P 500. Did I not? Yes, I did, right? And this is something that all of you guys can learn, and something that some of you have already learned, and you will get better at this as we progress, right?
So, we have the S&P 500 taking out this high after the time, time has passed, right? After price has been going up until it became time for it to reverse, which happened after January 23rd, right? So, whenever you see, like, for example, price should be trending lower for the, for the remainder of the trend in time that we have now, which is around three months, right? So, price should be going down for like three to four months after this week, going into next month, right? So, we could be looking to shorten, short S&P 500, Euro USD, GBP USD, gold, and so on. Bitcoin usually follows the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the stock market on a whole, right? Right. It just lags sometimes. So, even right now, you can see a bit of weakness in regard to Bitcoin, all right? And that's just how it works.
So, I'll put some lipstick on the charts. So, right here, you guys can see, right? And the reason why SMT doesn't work for some of you is because you're just randomly using it. You have to be paying attention to time. That's the most important thing, right? Time is very important. There's nothing more important than that.
So, we had price take out this high, which I talked about, and not going into this high, right? And then breaking down, right? And then we had the S&P 500 taking out this high, while this, which is the NASDAQ, formed a lower high. After that, we could still see weakness here, right? You could still see a weakness here. How could you see a weakness here? Because this high, right here, this high, right here, which is the same as this high, right? It, it took out here, but this one could not take this one out. So, that's weakness right there, and this suggested that the NASDAQ was weakness at this time, was weaker at this time, right? So, the asset class which makes the lower high is usually going to fall more. I'll say that again. When you have SMT divergence at highs, the asset class which makes the lower high, right here, you can see that that is N, that will fall more, right?
As you guys can see, even right here, where we had SMT today, which was, this was sequential SMT between Q3 and Q4 of the daily cycle, right? So, price took out, price took out the New York's session, right here, with Q4 manipulation, which was the FOMC news, and fell, right? You can see that this took out the high, right? But this did not. This failed to do so. And what happened afterward? After it failed to do so, it fell way more than this did. So, whenever you have an asset class, the one that fails to take out the high whenever there's SMT, you, that will move more, right? You'll have a larger price swing or a, a larger pump or dump, or whatever you guys call it, right?
Usually, when SMT takes place, price either trades up into a fair value gap, while the other closely correlated asset class trades above a high, and you guys should understand that, or should know that wicks are also gaps, right? So, wicks have the same purpose as fair value gaps, but only when there is SMT. SMT confirms Turo soups. SMT confirms failure swings. Very important, right?
And we'll go here, and we'll look also where this happened this morning in regard to the sequential M. So, this is 8:30. 8:30 is high. Why was this high significant? Okay, due to the fact that we had a high impact news event this morning at 8:30 that made this candle have significant liquidity above the swing high, right? You got to understand, it has to be a swing high with a candle to the left lower than the one in the middle, and the same for the one to the right. So, this candle is lower than this, and this is lower than this. This is a swing high, right? This would be a swing low, okay? So, when price, so in my eyes, when I saw price falling, right? And this was 8:30, when we had, when we have high impact news event, I'm saying that again for those that went over your heads, right? I knew that there was a significant amount of liquidity above this high, right? Interesting, isn't it? So, price went down. We had news trigger this liquidity run above this high, right here, and then we had price break down even more. And remember that this is also sequential SMT. This high was formed in New York session, and this high was formed when? In the afternoon session. The same thing happened here, right? Price for, well, let's focus on the opening, right here, right now. We, right here, we had a one-hour fair value gap. You can see it right now, but on your charts, you can see it. We had the one for right here, which price traded up into, and then broke lower, creating SMT. So, this is very, very important, right?
And some of you guys are probably confused this morning as to why there was SMT here, but price didn't continue to go higher. This SMT canceled this one. So, SMT can cancel SMT, right? You had SMT right here below where this made a lower low, and this made a higher low, rallied after price cleared this high, which was very significant, and this one failed to do so. Break back, traded back below this, the close of this candle, then this was canceled. Hopefully, I haven't lost any of you, right?
So, this is something that most of you should focus, keep focus, focus on, right? So, a second SMT can cancel the first one. If there was a bullish SMT, and then we end up having a bearish SMT, then you should either look to exit your trade, right? Or take some profits. Also, SMT works just as how higher time frame PDAs work for lower time frame PDAs, right? Just as how you have higher time frame cycles and lower time frame cycles, you have higher time frame SMT or larger range SMT which forms across more candles than smaller ones, such as this. So, you have one, two, three, four candles between this SMT. When we're on the four-hour time frame here, we have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, around 20, 21 or so candles, right? So, when you have a, this large range SMT, right here, which is very significant, caused price to break down, and then you have a smaller range SMT, this is when this is in line with this one, then you know you're on the right track, right?
So, we had SMT here, then we had SMT here again, but it's in a smaller range. Can you understand? It's in a smaller range. This is significant. Don't overload this. You have a large range SMT, then a smaller range SMT. Everywhere is SMT, right? Anywhere you see price turning around, look at these lows right here, right? These equal lows. Look at these lows. That's SMT. Look right here. These lows, then look right here. These lows. That's SMT. SMT is always present. You just have to be looking for it.
If you use, if you trade the Euro dollar, you need to be watching DXY. GBP USD. If you're trading Bitcoin, you need to be watching Ethereum, right? After this month, which will be over in literally a couple of hours, we won't be talking about these, you know, basic stuff this much, right? You have to, you know, engrave this in your mind that how important this is. This is very important, right? Go, go through your charts, backtest, and then, you know, you will begin to see these things after a while, after giving yourself enough experience with your charts, okay?
And one second, also before we go into the next one, I need to give you guys some more information on quarter theory, right? So, if you are using the, the micro sessions, you need to be trading on the one-minute time frame, and in order to be trading on the one-minute time frame, you need a 15-minute PD, right? So, you need a 15-minute PD, which would be a higher time frame PD, and you need a one-minute time frame, which you will be using for entries, right? Next month will be very clear, clean. You know, a lot of you will be passing, I don't know what they're called, challenges and stuff like that. I don't really do that, but yeah, and some of you will be making some money, which will be interesting to see. I see a lot of you guys sending me private messages with your accounts and stuff like that, and I'm actually amazed that so much of you can, you know, be seeing improvements in such a short period of time, and I just think that's great. So, yeah.
And if you, if you usually trade with a five-minute time frame, you need a one-hour PD, and to navigate on a five-minute time frame, you're going to want to want to use the 90-minute cycles, right? Take note of that. If you are a day trader, you want to be trading with a 15-minute time frame. In order to trade with a 15-minute time frame, which time frame do you need? Which high time, which higher time frame period do you need? You, most of you already know, you need a four-hour time frame PD, right? And you will be using the true day open when trading with a 15-minute time frame, right? When you're trading with a 15-minute time frame, you need the true day open, right? And if you're trading with a true week open, you need a one-hour chart. Which higher time frame PD do you need? You need a daily PD. And all of this is very specific, right? Very, very specific.
We'll be going into more details next week, where you'll be getting a trading model, you know, built from scratch, you know, specific rules that you should follow, very consistent, and I hope that you guys will appreciate it. And yes, so this session was really jam-packed with a lot of things, right? I was thinking about introducing how to read Coot data now, but I want to give you guys some time to go through your charts and look how significant, how important SMT is. Anytime the market has a major turn, there's SMT there, trust me, it's always there. Look in the chart right now in front of us, it's always there. And when does SMT happen? At specific times, all right? Most of you guys can see this working. The sequential SMT, it's literally just, you know, quarterly theory mesh with SMT. Of course, there's more sequential SMTs there, but you need to be, you need to be focusing, you know, on one specific period of time first, then you begin to understand it. You, you won't need me here. You won't need me, like some of you won't need me even after like two, three months from now. You'll be like, oh, I don't need this guy anymore. And most of you will be here a little bit longer, but you know, I don't have to, like, say I promise you that this, you can, you guys can see the proof in the pudding, man. Like, what are the odds? Like, four weeks, four weeks straight accuracy? Not one, two, not one, then missed, then missed another one. Four weeks straight, bro. That's crazy. That's literally crazy, right?
And I just, you know, need you guys to focus on what I'm, what I tell you to focus on, like this right now. Focus on SMT right now, right? Sequential SMT. I already gave you guys the PD. You need higher time frame PD for the sequential SMT to react to, right? You need higher time frame PDAs. You need SMT, and the SMT must be below a true open if you're bullish, and above a true open if you're bearish. Very simple rules. There are more stuff there, of course, but this is amazing already. That look in the charts, it's there. Like, don't you see that every, like, the only, the only way that you'll fail at this is just if you don't study. But you have to be in your charts, just looking for SMT. If you're trading, you need to wait for SMT. Doesn't happen, but it goes in the way that you entered anticipated that it would. Who cares? Let's wait for another one. There will be so much moves this year, you won't be able to catch all of them, promise. I promise you.
And with that being said, I hope that you guys got value from this. I try to not make them too long. Like, I literally could make them like these episodes, these streams, like an hour, but I notice most of you have work and, you know, you don't want to hear me talking about putting fillers and stuff like that. So, yeah, whenever I do analysis on Sunday, your job is to go in and look for the things that I talk about to form, right? If I say I'm bullish, then you look for bullish SMT on Wednesdays or Thursdays, for example, right? That's what you should do. That's how you're going to learn. Just as how when a, if you're a pilot and you are learning how to fly a plane, you need someone that can actually fly the plane. I'm your, I'm the pilot, not like trying to copy or anything, but, you know, I can read price, then, you know, that I can, right? So, I give you my opinion on the markets, then you go in and look for what I talk about, and that's how you're going to learn. I'm 100% sure. I have an assistant that person can, you know, trade now. Why? They follow everything that I say for like two years now. They paid way more than you, um, but that's fine, right? You guys are very, very lucky. So, yeah, um, just study and continue to grow, and I'll talk to you guys again later this week or Sunday. Not sure. Maybe if later this week, if I see something that I have to talk about, right? But remember, tomorrow you don't really want to be trading. Tomorrow, to be honest, you don't really want to be trading for the rest of the week. It's not really worth it. Um, there are a lot of cleaner weeks that are to come. So, yeah, hope you guys have a good evening and goodbye.