Transcription
Professor, so wonderful to see you today. It makes me smile always to see you.
Oh, you're so kind. Talking about the war in Iran. What is the way out? What is the exit strategy? Of course, a lot of people are asking that question. You have been interacting with both parties. Tell me more about your thoughts.
Well, I think the uh I think the President Trump's decision to attack a man was a mistake. Big mistake. Uh I think.
Why do you say that?
If you look at the uh uh views that he expressed previously about the war in Iraq, he said that was a crazy disaster. About the invasion of Afghanistan, he said that was a mistake. In the campaign, he said the endless windless wars that Democrats have waged is the wrong direction. I'm going to take you in the right direction, not get involved in a war in the Middle East. So I think the Trump views previously were correct and that this turns out to be a d aversion from that main line. Now there's many possibilities between here and there. One possibility is he decides okay enough is enough.
Enough of the military objectives have been achieved. Let's end the war. That could happen in a day or a week. Uh again it's complicated. What will the Iranians do and the opening of the straits of Hormuse? But I can imagine that happening within a week.
Oh.
But I can also imagine this taking more than a month. And I also have a even more pessimistic scenario in which the US gets itself deeper and deeper into a quagmire the way we did in Iraq, the way we did in Afghanistan, and the way we did in Vietnam. Doing regime change in countries uh uh generally has required world wars. That's called World War II. That was a catastrophe that was necessary given the enemies.
But if you remember how many hundreds of how many millions how many tens of millions of people were killed and how much treasure. So Iran is not is not required to have a a great war against Iran. And I think if it's possible now to stop sooner rather than later will be better for the US and I think it would be better for the Pope.
I've been talking to some strategists and scholars and many of them are asking the same question. If the US claimed victory on its own term about what is going on in Iran, then would Israel follow and how would Iran react? And what about the regional players over there as their interests have been pretty much hurt over the past few weeks if not more. So how do you see the different actors likely to work together or against one another?
I think they're good very thoughtful question. So I believe that when this ends everybody will be complaining about everything. President Trump will declare that it was a great victory and define the victory in his own terms. I think the Iranian government will say it was a great victory for us. The Israelis will if they have to go along, which they will have to do, I believe, uh will say, well, we achieved the things that we really had as our objectives. Though BB will be very unhappy because he is seriously determined to have deep regime change in Iran. And he hopes that the Americans will send troops to do that. I hope and pray that we do not. I'd say for most of the rest of the world, their interests have been harmed by all of this. And so they'll be complaining and some people will say President Trump didn't achieve all of his objectives and some people will say he should have never done this in the first place and some people will say look why did this disturb my life in Korea or Japan or or China or wherever I am. So I think I think everybody will have a negative view or will have more negative views than positive views about what happened whether we end the war today in a week in a month in six months.
I see. Now it makes me smile these days when talk about China US relations after the sixth round of uh talks between the two sides. Do you see that momentum likely to carry for the next few weeks? Yes, I I I think 2026 is going to be a good year in relations between China and the US. Of course, the world is very uncertain and things could be otherwise, but I think because you have two leaders who are determined to define the relationship in terms that are more positive and mutually beneficial and I think the two leaders are driving it to be more positive and constructive.