Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video this Friday, October 31, 2025, in front of a very red crypto market, unfortunately. So, you're going to tell me it fits with Halloween, what happened in recent days? So, I apologize again for being absent Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, but unfortunately, I had no choice. I had a small business trip, if you will. I returned very late last night by plane. So the market has corrected since Monday when your beloved foufinou left. Your beloved foufinou is back, and we're heading into some nice green. What happened? We're going to look at that because there were strong news, whether at the geopolitical, macroeconomic, or microeconomic level, a lot has happened. The stock market yesterday was also, you think it was mixed, but in the end, it wasn't good at all. Meta took an 11% hit, Amazon -3%, Microsoft almost -3%, -2%, Tesla -5%. So it wasn't very good for the Magnificent Seven. For now, we see that the NASDAQ futures are still in a nice green. So tech stocks could be bought, meaning well, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and all that could be bought at the opening of Wall Street this afternoon. That remains very possible. This week was the week of quite a few big American tech stocks. We had well, Meta, Microsoft, we had Alphabet, Amazon fell, Apple fell, we had Coinbase, in short, it was also the week with quite strong microeconomic announcements. In short, why did stocks fall? Many showed very, very good quarterly results, you see, above expectations. Unfortunately, what calmed, cooled down investors a bit, is that quite a few of these big tech giants said they are investing astronomical sums in AI, and some investors are saying, "Wait, it's starting to be a bit too much with AI, it could smell like a bubble." So well, also often when very good quarters come out, some sell a bit in a "sell the news" mode, if you will. Okay. Good results equal boom, we're going to... Well, at the central bank level too, we'll talk about it, of course, the American central bank, there was an interest rate cut that was made well on Wednesday evening, and theoretically for December, we should have an interest rate cut, but expectations are a bit mixed, and I will of course tell you about it. If we do a quick overview of the markets, we see that the S&P 500 has also been correcting since Wednesday, since Powell's speech, the NASDAQ too. So unfortunately, like last month, interest rate cuts, Powell's speech, it has cooled down the markets a bit. Cryptos have also fallen a lot. Now, we've had a small rebound since yesterday evening, more or less. Cryptos rather liked Powell's speech, but unfortunately less so Wall Street. The dollar, which is also picking up again since Wednesday. You see, that puts a lot of pressure. We also have rates rising, the yields on the American 10-year are rising, and that puts a little pressure, you see, on the markets, and the fact that yields are rising. Well, we'll talk about it tonight in detail in the analysis video, of course. A quick look at the liquidity clusters. Don't forget that on Monday, we were around here, and we saw that there was a big cluster at the bottom, but also at the top, and the market decided to attack the liquidity at the bottom. There's plenty to eat up to 103,000. This morning, in the VIP Telegram channel, I sent you, as usual, a video, a bit long, 10 minutes, to explain a bit where we are in terms of structure. For now, the structure is perfectly following its evolution. When I left on Monday, I was talking about a rather corrective wave, and we are right in the middle of it. So the structure is calmly following its course. There are no surprises. The structure could even continue to nibble below 103,000 to go and get that small cluster there. And we also note some nice clusters with the most important selling hours around $117,000 to defend positions behind. So the market could take a little tour if it wants to, above $121,000. We'll talk about it tonight. So, very strong news that has fallen because there was news at the geopolitical level with the conflict over tariffs between China and the United States. We had microeconomic news with well, the quarterly results of the American tech giants. We also had macroeconomic news concerning Jerome Powell, the American central bank, interest rate cuts, end of quantitative tightening, etc. I will tell you about it, of course. So, we already have the American Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, who declared that the United States will suspend restrictions on Chinese companies buying technology. In short, they have agreed. We will ease things on both sides. On the US side, well, we are easing a bit what we had restricted on sales of so-called sensitive technologies, and on your side, you are also easing the export of rare earths. In short, each needs the other at the technological level to build technological things. And so, instead of everyone fighting each other, we're going to put a little water in our wine and try to make exchanges, because if there are no exchanges, it hurts everyone, clearly. Well, so this is rather a positive catalyst at the geopolitical level. At the macroeconomic level, we had the FOMC meeting on Thursday. Well, there were good news and bad news. The bad news was that the majority of FOMC members, so the group of Federal Reserve governors, the companies that decide on interest rate cuts, were quite divided on a potential interest rate cut for December. And you see it here, there is only about a 64.8% probability of an interest rate cut. So, two-thirds, let's say, probability of an interest rate cut. Well, they are not all in agreement, so be careful about that, and that's not too bullish. The fact that they are not all in agreement means that perhaps interest rate cuts are over. We don't forget that inflation is still quite high, around 3%. Well, and on the other hand, we have good news that the Fed has confirmed the end of its quantitative tightening. The act of reducing its balance sheet. In short, you are taking money out of the economy instead of injecting it. So it's the opposite, you see, of putting the printing press to work and making it run, and that will end in December. So that's also rather a positive catalyst, if you will. However, the problem is that well, the act of printing money is called quantitative easing, or QE. And the act of taking money back is called QT, because the Fed will not always inject money. Central banks will not inject money indefinitely, even if, well, we know that the curve of money injection, the curve of money creation, keeps rising, but it injects and then it takes back a little. It injects, it takes back a little, but it often takes back less than it injects. That's why money creation has been on the rise for 100 years. And so, the act of taking back a little is QT, and the act of injecting is QE. So QT is ending, and QE will begin, but it will begin in 6 or 7 months, you see, it's not immediate. Well, so that's why it's good news, but it can take time. Now, Bitcoin, you should know that when the Fed said in 2019 that we are stopping QT, quantitative tightening, the act of reducing its balance sheet, the act of taking back money, Bitcoin had fallen by 35%. So, will it be the same thing or not? We'll see. I'll show you some charts afterwards. Okay. You should know that during the press conference, Powell, the central bank chairman, sowed a bit of uncertainty among investors about what the Fed will do in the coming months, interest rate cuts or not. Because he already said that inflation, and I quote, "inflation has slowed considerably from its peaks in May 2022, but it remains higher than our 2% target." Well, yes, it's at 3%, we saw it last week. And so he says that the Fed is struggling to reconcile its dual mandate. That's also not positive news, which is employment and price stability. In short, the Fed has two missions: employment and inflation. Well, that's what he calls price stability. And so they are struggling a bit, you see. Well, welcome to stagflation. He will never say the word stagflation, recession. Stagflation is the worst. It's when the economy contracts, unemployment falls, and inflation rises. It's the worst-case scenario. Well, and so he added that for them, opinions diverge strongly on the path forward in December. So investors don't like uncertainty, you see, that's why the markets haven't been very pretty. He tells us that another rate cut at the December meeting is not a given. So he says, and you out there who are expecting a rate cut in December, don't specifically expect one in December. And he tells us, far from it, monetary policy is not predetermined. Well, so you understand well that it's been a rollercoaster with good news and bad news. Geopolitically, good news, yeah, we've reached agreements with the Chinese, but bad news is, well, the agreements are very limited, you see, it's really the minimum, we've eased a bit, but not much more, you see, it's still a bit tense. Macroeconomically, good news. Yeah! Rate cut, end of QT. Bad news, Jerome Powell says, and you might not expect rate cuts to come. Ah, well, okay. So you understand why investors are a bit worried and de-risking in the traditional market and in the crypto market. Well, so Bitcoin unfortunately fell to around $106,800 yesterday at the opening of the Wall Street stock market on Thursday. So the stock markets also faltered a bit. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell a bit, despite the tech companies' quarterly results, I say quarterly, I think it's quarterly, I'm saying it wrong, with the giants regarding, in short, and so Meta and Microsoft fell by 10% and 3%. Why, you'll ask me, but wait, they showed good balance sheets, it's going well, but they fell because investors are a bit worried about the companies' large AI spending. And so, the fact that they tell us, "We have quarterly results that are super high," we're like, "Yeah!" all happy, and we've decided to inject, for example, Meta, $72 billion into AI. Investors say, "Wait a minute!" And Alphabet, Google, also said, "Well, we have good results, and we're going to invest $93.13 billion in AI." There are investors who say, "Aren't you a bit crazy?" You need to calm down. Well, so it's normal that when a company in which you've bought shares, so you're a shareholder, shows you a good balance sheet, you're happy, but when it then tells you, "We're going to use a lot of money to put into this," some can say, "Yeah, hooray, we're happy," but others say, "We're going to perhaps calm down on that, this is becoming ridiculous." So that's why investors, at least a part of investors in Meta, in Facebook, are not happy because Meta took a 10% hit yesterday at the close, -1133. It's a nuclear candle, and it's like multiplying by 3 or 4 for the equivalent in crypto. It's as if Solana, Ethereum, XRP had fallen by 30-40%. It's like, "What the heck," you see, so Meta took a big hit yesterday, Amazon too, Google, it's like, in short, Amazon, Google -10%, you see, to give you the crypto equivalent. Well, so in the end, there was good news, but you see, bad news, it wasn't very pretty. Well, after that, the markets are also skeptical geopolitically with Trump and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Why? Because he said, "Yes, we will reduce tariffs on...". Okay, we will postpone the ban on exporting rare earths. Apart from that, no details have been leaked. So, you see, it's an agreement, but it's a bit lacking. It's like being given a pancake, you're like, "I have a pancake," and you say, "Okay, where's the whipped cream? The chocolate? Where's the ice cream?" You see, you have a plain pancake. You see, so you're happy, you say, "Okay, it's a plain pancake," but on the other hand, you're not happy because there's nothing else with it, you see. Well, that's the idea of what they did with President Trump and the Chinese president. That's why investors are saying, "Oh, that's it." Well, it's still a bit tense, you see. It's not like, "Yes, it's good, everything is fine, we're back to normal." No, not at all. There's still a lot of tension, you see. And then, well, Bitcoin in the face of this, cryptos have corrected sharply, unfortunately. However, since yesterday evening, cryptos are also regaining a bit of momentum because, on the one hand, you have good news and bad news, you see. Geopolitically, agreements, yeah, great! But well, in the end, rather useless agreements, so it's not great. Microeconomically, good quarterly results, but in the end, they are all injecting their money into AI, investors are not happy. And macroeconomically, yeah, rate cut, end of QT, but then Powell tells you, "Well, you might not expect rate cuts in December," you see. So you understand that it's like, "Wow!" you're like, "Okay, so are we more bullish or bearish?" You have good news and bad news too, you see, that's why the markets are like, "What do we do?" Well, for now, little Bitcoin, be careful with liquidity that's lower, and to finish. So Powell spoke about the end of QT, he already told us about that a few weeks ago. So the end of tightening, he stops taking back a bit of money, reducing the balance sheet of the American central bank. Is that good news or not? Well, you should know that the Fed, meaning it will stop decreasing its bond holdings. Don't forget that the Fed, how does it inject money into the economy? Well, it's US Treasury bonds. It's the US Treasury that issues Treasury bonds. So it issues debt. And then the central bank presses the magic buttons, makes the printing press work, and buys the government's debt, and there you go. So it communicates from one office to another. You see what I've also seen, it's knock knock, we go into an office, and Robert, you press the button to create money. I sent a lot of bonds, these bonds are debt. Robert says, "Yeah, okay, how much do you want?" Alright, I'll create a trillion dollars, I'll buy your money, and the trillion dollars, there you go, lands in the next office, which is the secretary, the ministry of, of, of, of, I'll get there, the ministry of, of, of, of money, well, yes, and so the Fed, at some point, when it injects trillions of dollars, like during Covid, we injected $5 trillion, that's about what we injected, plus or minus a trillion, the American central bank, the European central bank, at some point they say, "Well, okay, we've supported the markets, we've supported the general economy. Now, we're perhaps not going to renew," meaning that the Fed buys a debt, a Treasury bond, for example, well, at some point, after 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, well, the Treasury repays its money to the Fed, and the Fed can decide to buy again, to give money back upon maturity to start a new maturity, so a new debt, if you will, or the Fed can say, "No, I'm taking the money back." There you go. Because, well, at some point, you have to repay, because when you buy debt, you give a small yield, but at the end of the contract, you have to repay the total amount, it's normal. And so the Fed, well, I take back the total amount at the end, and well, I keep it and I burn it, you see, simply to reduce its balance sheet. There you go. Otherwise, we won't always buy, buy, buy, and the balance sheet will explode. It has to decrease a bit. Well, so you see, the balance sheet is exactly that. Look, you have the nice graph, 2020, boom, explosion. We went from $4 trillion to almost $9 trillion. Well, and so the Fed, you see, since 2022, has been reducing its balance sheet. Now, we're going to stop, but you can see that we haven't returned to the Covid level, so you're left with much more money injected. That's why the global money supply keeps rising. Now, there are other factors too, but you've understood that when we inject, we take back, but we take back much less, you see. And hello, that's the total devaluation of currencies, it's that you print and then you burn, but much less. So, in the end, every year, every decade that passes, there is more and more money, it devalues, loses purchasing power, loses simply the devaluation of fiat currencies. Well, and Bitcoin was also created to fight against that a bit. In short, so now, the old bonds when they are repaid, that the Fed bought, instead of destroying its money to reduce its balance sheet, it can buy new bonds. That's when it's doing QE, quantitative easing, it's injecting money. When it doesn't renew, it takes the money back, it burns it, it says thank you, bye. Well, so you should know that when Bitcoin, in 2019, the Fed said it was ending its QT, quantitative tightening, the act of taking back money, Bitcoin had a big correction of 35%. But with interest rate cuts each time, you see, red cut, red cut, here, you see, interest rate cut, it has always been bearish, like we had an interest rate cut last month, bearish, an interest rate cut here, well, on Wednesday, bearish, that's the news. And with the end of QT, the end of quantitative tightening, Bitcoin corrected until the Covid crash, and after the Covid crash, it was the beginning of QE. It started quantitative easing. So I print money, my name is the Fed, I print money and I support the economy by buying all the Treasury bonds lying around, a massive purchase, and boom, massive money injection into the markets, and then it explodes. There you go. The problem is that between the end of QT and the beginning of QE, well, the end of QT was like, you see, August, you see, and then you have August, September, October, November, December, January, February, March, you have 8 months, you see, and during these 8 months, little beloved Bitcoin was falling, you see. So, will we see the same thing? Well, it's possible. Some say yes, but we only have one example, it's not because something happened once that it will happen again. But that's why some are a bit pessimistic. We have other analysts who will say, "Yes, attention, the MACD, look, we have a divergence on the MACD, on the RSI, on the weekly, I've been showing you this for months and months that we were going to fall." Yes, but just because there are divergences doesn't mean you're going to fall into a bear market. Okay? So we'll analyze all that tonight. Don't worry. There are analysts who say it's over, we're all going to die in a bear market. Some say, "No, don't worry, we're going to start again." Well, I'll give you my own prediction tonight, as every evening, the video. So there you go, friends, this news video is a bit long. I apologize. Well, at least we've straightened out the picture of everything that's happened in the last three days. I think a lot has happened. We'll reconnect on social media all day. I'm sending kisses. See you later. Bye bye.