Transcription
You guys ask us all the time, where is the best pick to have in fantasy football this year. So, we are going to listen to you. We are going to tier list exactly the best draft slots that you guys can have from a half PPR, full PPR frame of mind. We're going to do that in the first segment of this video. And then the second segment of this video, we've been doing strategy videos, hero RB, zero RB, double her RB, etc. all the last week or so. We're going to actually tier list those strategies, which ones we think are the most effective in fantasy football this season. So, uh Danny, let's pivot over here and start talking through the best draft slots. And a large part of this is the versatility that you get for having each draft slot. Like you can you have the flexibility to do a zero RB, a hero RB, a double her RB, a hero wide receiver, etc. The more access you have to different strategies, the better the slot probably is.
Yeah. Keeping versatile in the first couple rounds, first few rounds is very key. Uh especially just knowing this year, again, we're going to be talking through all those pick strategies and determining which overall draft strategy is going to fit them. But for the most part this year, I like leaving my first three or four rounds relatively balanced. Ultimately, if I can have a strong nucleus at each position and then build the rest of my team around them, I usually like my drafts the most.
Yeah. And you guys can't see where we have these ranked yet. I'm going to cover that up in the editing process, but let's start with the S tier. Danny, if you got to pick your draft slot, let's say you won the league and that was like the the, you know, bonus for winning the league or something like that, where would you select?
At the end of the day, when you're playing fantasy football, your goal is to hit on the 2000 Marshall Faulk, the 2006 Leenian Tomlinson, the 2019 Christian McAffrey, the 2020 Alvin Chimera. You want to be hitting on the players that have that legendary season named after them upside. And to me, the 101 and the 102 have that access this year. Jamir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson are in their prime superstar caliber running backs that profile for over 70 receptions, over 15 touchdowns from scrimmage, over 300 touches. To me, they are the no-brainer 101 and 102. And yeah, I get it. Like, you're not going to have a high second round pick inherently, but they are just so ahead of the field to the point where they have to be in the S tier.
Think about my Flock League team last year and Sammy's Flock League team last year. When you hit on a value over replacement running back like a Chan were for the two of us, it can single-handedly carry you to the playoffs, assuming you're just like streaming matchups and your flexes or whatever the case is. So yeah, I mean value of a replacement running back is the most irreplaceable position in fantasy football and you have the what an 80% chance these guys are that like it's an extremely high hit rate for these two dudes. So, as far as like strategies that I like from from these picks, we'll talk through that in the 101 to 103 draft strategy video in the five uh the 4 to6 in the 7 to9 and in the 10 to 12. But I'm taking Jir Gibbs, Bejian Robinson, and I will figure the rest out later. I will do mocks to figure out if I like going double her RB, if I like going hero wide receiver, if I like going hero RB, etc.
Yeah. At the end of the day, when we look back on this season, multiple other players can be in the 21 to 23 point per game range, but if these two running backs are averaging 26 points per game and above, it won't matter. You have one of these players, you're probably making the semifinals, the finals, potentially winning the championship just because of how dominant they are. Think of it as like a 15 point weekly floor with the upside to lead the league in any given week of 45 50 fantasy points like we've seen time and time again with these two.
Yeah. So, let's talk about the A tier. So, let's say you're in a derby, you got the third option. Now, these picks went off the board like hot cakes. I think most people generally agree that the 101 and 102 are very good picks this year. I think there's going to be deviations here and there, but I think generally most people agree on that.
This is the real conversation now. like what is the next best pick after these these top two guys? For us, it's Jamar Chase at the 103. For me, he's a tier above every other player in fantasy after these top two running backs. And then for you, it's the 108. And we'll talk about why in a second. Let's start with the 103 and why the 103 is exactly up here as like technically the third best pick or at least in the tier with the third and fourth best pick that you can have. for me. I mean, you got Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow, 50 plus touchdown upside, 5,000 plus passing yard upside in his prime, 26 years old, former Triple Crown winner, still averaged 19 fantasy points per game last season with Joe Burrow missing half of the season. Very similar to Gibbs and Bejon. I will take Jamar Chase and I will figure out my strategy from there. I also think this pick is the most versatile for running every single strategy because I think it's the best pick to run zero RB from if you want to because you can take another receiver, Brock Bower, Trey McBride, etc. in the in the remaining rounds or you can do, you know, your double hero RB with your two uh 210 and your 302 or 303 if you want to.
Yeah. The only counter, the only caveat I would have with the 103 is the fact that if you are a running back bro and you need a running back in the first two rounds, you might get left behind the eightball. Because the way I kind of have my ranking set up right now is the Devon Han, the Ken Walker, the Saquon Barkley, those types probably not going to make it in a more casual league. Maybe you're hardressed to find a Derrick Henry making it. Like unless you're really really bought in on taking a Jeremiah Love at the 210, you might have to have to just accept the fact that your RB1 might have to come in the third round. Your RB 2 and three might have to come in the fourth, fifth, sixth round. Like you have to kind of have to accept that if you have Jamar Chase, you're probably going to be weaker at the running back position at the top end.
Yeah. And I think personally the best strategy is to take the receiver or tight end in the second round, grab a running back in the third round and then because I like the fourth, fifth, and sixth round running backs this year, I'm okay taking those deviations there cuz you know you can run a very strong build with that getting into the 108. So for us both, and I know don't pay too much attention, by the way, to who's on the picture, it's just generally like who's going to be in that territory. CD Lamb is on the picture obviously and this is a large part why you like this pick the most is because he is typically the one of the tier of four players Christian McAffrey, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Aman Rosra St. Brown and CD Lamb. He is typically the one that's going to be on the board the most often which is why you love the 108 but even me I have those four players in a tier as well. So, you're getting the end of that tier in the first round. And conversely, in the second round, you're going to catch the end of the, you know, big group of running backs, Drake London, and those type of guys. And that's the main thing when I'm picking at the 108. I've just inherently really enjoyed my teams. Uh, like you said, most likely going to be a guy like CD Lamb falling there, and that is low hanging fruit. Of course, if my fifth overall player fell to eighth overall, slam dunk pick. But even if you said that's a Monor St. Even you if you said very unlikely but that's Jackson Smith and Jigba. Even if you said that's Christian McCaffrey, the fact that you get access to both the running backs and a guy like Drake London in the second round make this pick so unique. If you start off with a CD Lamb at 108 overall and a Monner at 108 overall, you can wrap back around get access to a very very strong running back whether that's at Barkley Walker. Uh the guys that I have in that 13 through 18 area of my rankings I'm comfortable with any of them as my RB1. In fact, in a recent mastiff draft that I did, thousand draft on underdog with Mason, funny enough, I started my draft with CD Lamb, Omarian Hampton, and uh Malik Neighbors in the third round picking from this range. And to me, if you're talking about just an opportunity bundle of being able to add an elite wide receiver, a workhorse running back, and then a high upside wide receiver, too. Maybe it's not Malik Neighbors because you're, you know, a little bit cautious about the injury. T. Higgins, Jaylen W, Z Flowers, any of those end of the third uh round type of receivers, I'm totally comfortable buying as my wide receiver, too, if I start with uh a running back and receiver early.
Yeah, you can also grab, you know, another running back there if a Breeze or a Kirn or a Gvante were to fall to you. So, uh the other thing I think that's worth mentioning is that in half PPR and standard formats, I'd be comfortable taking Jonathan Taylor with the 108 as well, but in full PPR, we do view those McCaffrey, JSN, St. Brown, and Lamb as like a bit ahead of Jonathan Taylor. Not necessarily a consensus opinion because JT is actually the 107 off the board consensus wise, but that's we're doing this ranking obviously, so we're not going to probably take a lot of Jonathan Taylor. We're also a tad lower on JSN as well.
Um, moving into the B tier, we have the 104, the 112, and the 111. Again, this is where the conversation is wide open. It really depends on who you think the guys you need will be in the first round. If you are massively pilled on a certain player, then you should pick a pick in the range where you're going to get that player. That's first and foremost. But for us, 104 represents basically the same thing as 103, except you're getting a slightly worse projection at wide receiver in Puka Nua, but you are getting inherently a slightly better pick in the second round. So maybe if there's a sliding value like a Drake London or maybe a Derrick Henry Falls or a Walker Falls or something like that, maybe you'd have the opportunity to draft that before the 103 team does.
Yeah, like I personally would have 103 and 104 in the same tier because I do view Chase and Nua in the same tier. And like you said, the one to three to me is pretty identical. But Corey is on the mindset that Jamar Chase is kind of in his own tier, kind of just the overall crystal clear number one projection. So if that is your mindset as well, having Chase is going to be an advantage over having Nua. Hence why they're a tier difference in these rankings combined.
Yeah. And again, it's going to be somewhat challenging like we said for Chase to run a double hero RB start unless you are getting a falling value on Walker or Henry or you're really pled on a Jeremiah Love brief. Iron Williams, Javvante Williams or Jacobs' situation clears up legally. Um, so that's the one disadvantage of picking at the 104, but it's one of the best places to run a zero RB. It's one of the best places to run a double hero wide receiver. You could start your draft with a Puka Nua AJ Brown or a falling Drake London and still maybe fill out your running back core in the three, fourth, fifth, sixth round type of areas because we do actually really like some of the running backs in that territory.
Um, if I were doing this list myself, I would have the 112, maybe third or fourth on the list. Um, I have a tier in my rankings of 9 through 15. Consensus wise, the two of us have a tier in our rankings of I believe it's uh 10 through 15 or 10 through 14, sorry.
9 through 12 for me, 9 through 15 for you. So, yeah, that's kind of probably what it equates to.
So, the opportunity because as we'll get into in the end of this video, we're going to tier list the actual strategies themselves. the opportunity to leave my draft with two anchor running backs of James Cook, Chase Brown, Caliber, Devon Achan, Saquon Barkley, Genty and whatever JT maybe slides to you. Like 112 to me is the best pick of the end of the board picks. 111 also very good because you're going to catch two of those anchor running backs and I'm not as high on Jefferson so he doesn't really even fall into this conversation for me, but I want those two anchor running backs in full PPR, standard, half PPR alike. I think that getting those two anchor running backs is going to give you an advantage at the RB2 spot over the teams that have Puka Nakua, over the teams that have Jamar Chase, even the teams that have Gibbs and Bejon are not going to have nearly the caliber of RB2 that you're going to have.
Well, that's the thing, right? You mentioned you're not high on Jefferson. Jefferson's probably going to be gone by this pick. So, that's even more benefit to you where if Jefferson is gone by this pick, then all of a sudden you get two players even higher on your rankings. The way I currently have it ranked right now is like I said, 9 through 12 is in tier for me. Genty, Taylor, Cook, Jefferson. All I would theoretically need if I'm picking at the 112 is one person ahead of me to take a player lower because then I get two players in my 9 through2 tier. And if you can guarantee me that I can get two players in my 9 through 12 tier, uh 9 through 12 tier, sorry. I would actually put both these ahead of the 104. But if I'm stuck in a situation where I can only get one of those guys and then I have to take the top of the next tier, that's kind of where I balance it out to the point where I have 104 ahead of them.
Yeah. And and again, for what it's worth, in my rankings, technically the 110 is in the same territory because Devon Han, my 15th overall player, is in the same tier as James Cook, my ninth overall player. So, I technically could get two of my top 15 all in the same tier if I had the 110 as well, because I'm guaranteed mathematically to get one of those guys. But the 111 and 112 could guarantee me to get two of my top 10 or 11 players. If I can start my draft with James Cook at 111, Chase Brown at the 202, I I get two of my top 10 players in fantasy, which is why I love this strategy so much. And if I were doing a derby and the 101 and 102 are off the board, I would heavily consider taking the 111 and 112 or the 112 if I really wanted to go in that direction.
So, um, moving down here to the, uh, the C tier. So, these picks not going to be as good, I would say, as the other ones. Uh, 109, 107, and 110. Let's start with 109 because as a result of us being a little bit lower on Jonathan Taylor, that's why we're a little bit lower on 109. The devil's advocate argument here is that you, for example, Danny, are very high on CD Lamb. It's very possible that you get CD Lamb falling to you at 109, not Jonathan Taylor.
Which is why I would say uh there's the caveat on the 109. If any of the top eight players fall, you can make the case that it's a top of the Btier strategy. It's an A tier type of strategy. I really do believe there's a ton of upside in any given draft for the 109 to be valued higher. The issue for me is that my ninth overall player is Ashen Genty. As much as I love Ashen Genty, does it feel good knowing that I have to take one pick after where the CD Lamb, the Ammon, the JSN, the Christian McAffrey go, not necessarily, because I also recognize that in most rooms, he's my ninth overall player, but I can probably get him at the 111 or the 112.
Yeah, it's all about reconnaissance on your league sometimes, too. Like I had the 109 in my home league draft last year and I did so much recon in my league to the point that I knew the jersey hanging behind you Danny was going to be my pick at 109 and I picked Puka Nakua happily because he was actually my 107 in my rankings going into the season. Um, because I knew that the Malik Neighbors pick was coming off the board before me and I knew that Christian McCaffrey wasn't going to or it's not Christian McCaffrey who was the guy that Amanra I think is who else came off the board before me as well. Um, so if you do that recon on your league at 109 and you know that one of those top eight players is falling to you, then like you said, this strategy becomes a lot better. But we want to plan for the worst and hope for the best. So if the worst case scenario happened, you mentioned uh Genty being the top of your 109 tier, James Cook is the top of my 109 tier, and I wouldn't feel as good about that start as I would hypothetically with a top eight pick.
Yeah, exact rationalization. The 107 people might be asking, well, you get access to one of your top eight players. Why is the 107 so far below the 108? just simply a flexibility thing. Based off my rankings right now, that is technically right. I have 18 players uh within the uh Dtier or above in my rankings. But if you take a Mon or St. Brown, the likeliest of that tier to fall is probably going to end up being Drake London. Now, if you're a guy who needs to have a running back in the first two rounds who wants that security of getting touches at the running back position, you're going to have to probably accept that if you're at the 107 and Drake London is the clear best player available, you might have to start with a double hero wide receiver. So, because there there lacks flexibility at the 107, this is why it ranks in the C tier. But, if you're more on the side of, okay, sure, I'll take a Monor St. Brown and Drake London and I'll be [ __ ] awesome at wide receiver. If you're willing to start that way in a full PPR, two flex type of league, then you can even argue the 107 being higher. It's just the lack of flexibility is why it ranks here.
Especially in half PPR and standard league specifically, you'd probably be uh at a disadvantage there. The other thing for me with 107 is I have Christian McCaffrey as the head of the 105 through 108 tier. And he's rarely going to fall to 107. I'm probably looking at one of those receivers. So, I would rather just get um you know, the end of the tier completely at 108 or a faller at 109 than I would at 107. And like you said, I actually like have Drake London even a little bit lower than you do. So, if he's the best available player, then that really is kind of doomsday scenario for me in the second round because I'm going to miss out on Han and Barkley and and the end of that running back group that I I really covet so heavily. So, yeah, I I'm not as much of a fan of the 107. I would actually probably even have it closer to the D tier if I had to rank it because my 105 Christian McAffrey is probably not going to be on the board. So, that's another part of why I don't have it ranked as high. Like I said, I would rank the 110 probably in the same tier as the 111 and 112 just because I do have a tier from 9 through 15. I'm guaranteed two of those players and so on.
Um, why do you have the 110 lower, I guess, would be the question here.
Pretty uh pretty simple rationalization for me. Um, again, 9 through 12 all in the same tier. Genty Taylor, Cook Jefferson. It's far more likely that I can get two of the players in that tier when I'm at the 111 or the 112 than it is at the 110 in my opinion. And as much as I like Chase Brown, as much as I like Amari Hampton, as much I like Kenneth Walker, I would much rather have two of Genty, Taylor, Cook, and Jefferson on my team. Hence why there's a little bit of a tier discrepancy for me.
Yeah, that makes sense. And throughout this video, we'll show our rankings so you guys can see what the hell we're talking about when we say the tier tier breaks and whatnot. So, let's get into the picks that we don't want to have, Danny. And that is the 106 and the 105. Now the D tier. There you go. He's doing the stinky 106. Why is the 106 worse than the 107, I guess, would be the first question.
You're taking the second name off the top of the tier and then also getting access to none of the good players in the second round.
Yeah. And like for your ranking specifically, you have CD Lamb at 105, Amanra St. Brown at 106. I have Christian McCaffrey at 105, Amra St. Brown at 106. So those guys are often available at 107 and 108. So there's no real reason to take them at 105 and 106. And you're like more than guaranteed pretty much to miss the second round here.
Yeah, exactly. Ultimately, the consensus uh 105 or 106 here is going to be my 107 and 108. So, if the player that usually goes five and six is actually the two players that I have at the end of this tier and I'm getting the worst second round pick, especially from a tier perspective, like I said, 18 is the cutoff in the second round for me, which is the 206. Mathematically, that lines up with the 107. So, if I'm at 106 and 105, unless I get some falling value, I'm probably going to have to take a player at the top of my next tier.
Yeah. The one I think you don't like this pick a little bit more than I don't because Christian McAffy's ADP is 106 and Christian McAffrey is actually my 105 and I would rather have the 106 Christian McCaffrey than the 105 Christian McCaffrey because then you know if there's one off the board pick or maybe two off the board picks in the early second round then I could actually catch a Chase Brown or a Devon Achan or somebody like that. Unlikely, but it's possible. So, I like the 106 a little bit more than you, but generally I I do agree that because we have JSN a little bit lower, because we have Jonathan Taylor a little bit lower, it makes sense that the middle of the first round picks are the ones that we're lower on.
Yeah. And on top of that, too, uh at least if you're picking at the top of the board, you get access to the early third round uh early third rounders at the back of the board, you get access to the 34 turn. You're kind of just left in no man's land when you're at the 105 and 106. It's like, oh, I got to pray I get one of the third round followers at the top of the board. I gotta pray that a player I like in the fourth round ends up making it to me. It's just you're never really controlling your D controlling your draft. Sorry, you're just kind of at the mercy of the draft board.
Which I don't mind sometimes because I can feel out a run at quarterback or tight end or running back sometimes when I'm at the mercy of the draft board like that. Um, but somebody had to be ranked at the lowest here, right? Like we had to put a pick down here. You can obviously draft a good fantasy team from any draft pick in the first round from any any slot.
Exactly. my home league, the championship winner was at 112 and the year before that the 103 won the league. So, it's it's always all over the place.
Um, fitting fashion and I'm sure people are going to come in, oh, this is why you guys uh have lost the last two years, but the guy who won the Flock League last year literally with the player on the screen is in our F tier.
Yeah, exactly. So,
Christian McAffrey, well, not Christian McCaffrey, the 105 is in the F tier for us. And it's very simple.
We're lower on JSN, who is the consensus 105. We also have different 105s than the consensus by a lot. It's not even just that our 106 is our 105. You have the consensus 108 or 109 CD Lamb is your 105. I have Christian McCaffrey as the 105 who's I believe the consensus 106 right now. But in home leagues there's going to be people that let him fall to 107 108 because they're worried about his injury history and that kind of thing. So, while I'm okay starting my draft with Christian McCaffrey, and I'm sure while you're okay starting your draft with CD Lamb at 105, we'd rather get them at 107 or 108 where they're actually going to go in most drafts. So, that's what makes this the worst pick because you are definitely missing the second round here and you may even miss the third round, early third rounders of sliding Rashid Rice or a sliding Devonte Smith or a sliding Trey McBride or something like that. So you might like physically be in no man's land on every area of the board in the first four to five rounds because in the fourth round too you might miss those early like lad macona type receivers and have to reach on a McLaren or somebody like that like it's just not a great position to be in unless you're guaranteeing me good sliding values which again we're going to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I'm not joking to you. When I when I do the draft simulator on the site and I and I'm picking at the 105 or the 106, swear those teams always end up the lowest in the site rankings afterwards because again, you're just not in the value pockets of the draft this year. Our job as creators is to identify what the value pockets are. And we've kind of identified this year the top of the second is a value pocket. The early third is a value pocket. The 34 turn is a value pocket. The four five turn is a value pocket. When you're picking in the middle of all those areas, you're missing all of the value pockets.
And you might catch one of them, but you're not catching all of them. That's for sure. Like you can catch all of them at the 101 or you can catch all of them at the 110 or something like that. So, it's uh yeah, it's a little challenging to to navigate a 105 draft. And you and I have done thousands of dollars worth of underdog drafts already. We've picked from these picks many, many times in big dogs, in mastiffs, in basketball mania drafts. So, we are pretty seasoned on all of these draft picks and I can say confidently that we have the right list here. At least in our opinion based on our rankings. If you're super high on JSN this year, you're obviously going to think the 105 is a much better pick than it is. I've seen many people say that I want a top five pick in fantasy because that's the tier break. Like I think there's a lot of people out there that feel that way. We just don't feel that way about JSN or Jonathan Taylor and in my case, Justin Jefferson in the first round, which is why the picks that those guys go at are worse than than they are for other people.
Yeah, 100%. All right, so moving into segment two of this video, we're now going to rank the draft strategies and we're going to say which ones are best, which ones are the most flexible, which ones you can do from multiple areas of the board. And uh let's start it off with the S tier. Now, we have two S tier strategies this year. The balanced strategy is the one that we're going to start with. Now, what we mean by balanced is essentially you have an equivalent number of running backs and wide receivers through the first six to eight rounds. And you've also both faded quarterback early and tight end early. So essentially, we're saying fill out your running backs and receivers quick, fast, and furious. Maybe you grab a couple running backs in the first couple rounds, you grab one in the dead zone, and then you fill out receivers around them. The balance strategy to me represents both why it's good to take running backs early and why the dead zone's not so scary this year, which is why I like it as much as any strategy this season.
Yeah, I completely agree. Um, this year I really want to get my running backs. I really want to get my receivers early. I love the value deep at quarterbacks specifically around seven to 10. Like whether it's a, you know, falling value of the t uh tier 2 guys like a Caleb Williams, Jaylen Herz, Jaden Hayen, you know, someone like that. whether you wait a round or two and you still get Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, there's just so much value at quarterback. And I would say outside of Bowers and Lovelin specifically at cost in terms of where they go in early ADP, I usually like just wigging at tight end anyways because I view a guy like Sam Leaporta who I can get in round seven or round eight as also having extreme upside in that spot. Basically, when I compare the opportunity bundles of the, you know, early tight end or early quarterback along with the later option at running back or receiver versus the inverse, I typically like taking the running back or receiver earlier.
Yeah, like I'd rather have Bree Hall or sorry, not Bree Hall, Drake London and Sam Laaporta versus Josh DS and Brock Bowers.
Yeah, exactly.
So, yeah, balanced approach. Again, you're going to fade both quarterback and tight end until at least round seven, eight plus. And if the guys Danny mentioned, the Herz, the Caleb, Burroughs, those types of guys are going in around five in your league, then those would qualify as early quarterbacks as well. Early quarterbacks generally in sharper leagues are just going to be Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen who go in the first five rounds or so. But after that point, when you have three running backs and four receivers through seven rounds, that's when we're comfortable deviating for a tight end like Sam Leaport or for a quarterback like Justin Herbert or somebody like that.
And the beauty of it this year is how deep you can actually punt quarterback. Like if you said for example, "Oh my god, all these guys went and they went two rounds earlier than ADP and I'm panicking because I might miss the boat." Don't panic that you might miss the boat. There's like 15 quarterbacks I'd feel comfortable starting week one. Like if you had to wait till the last round and grab like Baker Mayfield or CJ Strad to stack with Nico Collins or something like that, you could easily do it.
Yeah. And like ideally I'd want to be like in the golf and above range, the staffer, the party, guys like that. But again, worst case scenario, I don't feel like I'm completely out of the woods.
Yeah, exactly. So, let's talk about hero wide receiver. And again, I'm going to give you a definition on all of these so you remember what they are, but we did do videos on all of them individually. Hero wide receiver by our definition is that you have a single wide receiver hero probably in the first round with like a Nua, a Chase, uh CD Lamb, a St. Brown, a Jefferson, but you could also get your receiver hero in the second round with Drake London or something like that. and you basically punt wide receiver two and your wide receiver depth until after let's say round six or so filling out three running backs maybe deviating for an elite tight end or something like that. That's kind of the hero wide receiver strategy. Now Danny, you were the one who pushed for this to be in the S tier. If it were up to me only I'd have it in the A tier.
Yeah. The reason why I think this is an S tier strategy this year is we kind of broke down the trends when we talked about the draft strategy in depth. But I truthfully do believe the top end of receiver is going to have a big- time bounce back this year. We went through the injury rates. We went through the hit rates of last year, 26% last year versus 40 plus% each of the previous two years. It leans me to believe that the top of the wide receiver position is going to be devalued because we saw the Lamb get hurt, the Nico get hurt, a lot of the top receivers not pay off in relation to the running backs. So, I think conversely, if you can grab one of those top eight wide receiver projections in what I project to be a bounceback year, fill out the rest of your team and then given the current trends in the NFL of heavier personnel sets, 12 personnel, 13 personnel, having a receiver that's on the field with less pass catches around him could make it so that we have one of the most dominant wide receiver one years in in recent memory.
Not to mention, too, like in rounds six through eight, you can walk away with Marvin Harrison Jr., DK Metaf and Michael Wilson or whatever.
Yeah, Ricky Pierol, Michael Pitman, Quinton Johnston. Like there's guys in that range that we really like.
Well, I would rank this as an A tier strategy because the one thing that I think is is um off with this this strategy is that you are dependent on running back values falling to you. Like let's say you take a St. Brown at 107 and all the running backs get wiped off the board before your next pick. That's a risk with this strategy. which is why I think from the middle of the board specifically, it's profitable because you're going to get a wide receiver there. But from the uh 101 102, you're obviously not doing this. And from the uh from the end of the board, I don't think it's optimal. I'd rather stack up running backs from the 109 through 112 if I can, which is totally reasonable. Again, we're in the area of the board it will work. I think it's the clear best strategy, but because it doesn't go maybe to certain draft slots, that's why I prefer the balance just because again, a balanced strategy you can apply to any single draft slot.
Yeah. And again, to be clear, in a hero wide receiver, I think you have the flexibility to be able to deviate for an elite quarterback or an elite tight end if you want to because you're probably going to walk away from the first five or six rounds with one wide receiver, which means mathematically you can't take five running backs. Like, you're going to probably take a tight end or a quarterback if one falls to you at value. You could start your draft with CD Lamb at 109. In the second round you take um you know Devon Han in the third round you take uh Bree Hall and then the fourth round you take Coloulston Lovelin or something like that. You're able to actually build out a whole team around that hero wide receiver before in round five, round six, round seven starting to take receivers again.
Yeah. The areas of the board it works. I truthfully do believe it is the clear number one strategy. Like you said, if you're at the 109 and you can start Lamb, one of those tier 2 running backs like Han, Hampton, Chase Brown, etc., whoever's there, Bree Sawfalls, and then like you said, Loveland, like to me, that's almost the perfect four stack that I can start my draft with.
Yeah. Yeah. In the middle of the board especially, it's very, very profitable. Balanced, of course, you can do from anywhere. You're just getting values at either position regardless, taking the best player on the board. Double Hero RB. Again, if this was just my list, I'd have it in the S tier with the balance strategy because I genuinely any pick after like 101 102 double her RB in my opinion is one of the most optimal strategies because you're getting one of the best heroes, Jir Gibbs, Bjan Robinson. 105 is Christian McAffrey in my ranking. So, I'm comfortable doing this strategy from 105, 106 or 107, wherever you can get Christian McCaffrey. And then from 109 through 203, I have only running backs and Justin Jefferson ranked in that range. So anywhere towards the end of the board, to me, double her RB is by far and away the most profitable strategy because I do think you're going to get decent wide receivers falling back to you in rounds three, in rounds four, in rounds five, and in round six. So for me, double hero running back is is one of the best strategies this year. But again, the classic definition of double hero RB is that you're going to fade the dead zone. you're going to take two running backs with your first three picks and then you're not going to draft another running back until round seven or round eight. And the only reason that maybe we could argue it's an A tier is that there actually are good picks in the mid rounds at running back in round five, round six or whatever and then you're not really running a double hero RB at that point.
Exactly. Ultimately, the way I view this is I love the double hero RB especially if you're at the 110, the 111, the 112, just because I have a lot of running backs in that range. The issue with it is I don't think it's as versatile as the top two strategies because we love the dead zone so much this year because the Tootton types, the Henderson types, the Judkins types are guys that we want to be drafting. A double hero running back does preclude you from drafting them in in just modernized uh language definition. Obviously, if you were to modify it and you wanted to say, "Hey, I'm going to take my double hero and then add a full house to it." Like, yeah, like there's modifications to the strategy, but then at that point, it becomes more of a balanced strategy.
Well, speaking of the full house, to me again, I would have this strategy probably number two or number three on the list entirely. Um, but you pushed back against it because of lack of flexibility reasons. Totally fair. The robust RB, our definition in the robust RB video, which you guys would have seen uh yesterday, was three running backs through the first four rounds or four running backs through the first six rounds, depending on how many you can start on any given week. in a two wide receiver, two flex, two running back, two flex type of league. Four running backs through six rounds is kind of the definition of robust RB. Now, I think the strategy can be optimal because I do really like that range of running back. Judkins, Henderson, Tuton, Price, especially knowing that I'm probably already going to have one or two running backs, if not more, on my team already. I think that the robust RB can be awesome because from any area of the board, let's say you're picking one or two, you can grab Jir Gibbs, Bejian Robinson, you grab one running back at each of the next two turns, two, three, and four, five, you got a robust RB, a full house, three running backs, two wide receivers start. You can do it from the middle of the board. You can take McAffrey, get a sliding walker, then take a Bree Hall in the third round and then fill out your receiver core. You can do it from the end of the board. You can take Genty and Achan to start your draft and then at the 34 turn maybe Kairen Williams, Breece, Javvante or Jacobs falls to you. So I think it's it is flexible because you can do it from anywhere on the board. That's why I love the robust RB strategy and I would put it in the A tier most likely if it was just me doing this list.
Yeah. The reason I'm more on the B tier, again, I don't think it's like a C tier or anything. It's just more so in the B tier for me, is that uh you mentioned flexibility. To me, this actually more of a rigid strategy because you are basically locking yourself into the three running backs. So that if you're in round five, six, seven, eight, there's a falling value at running back. You kind of just have to fulfill the quota at wide receiver. You have to kind of catch up at wide receiver. You kind of have to catch up at the other positions. And ultimately too, like you guys are going to see where you have zero running back. Like the extreme strategies one way or the other are just typically not ones I want to be endorsing in the early rounds.
Yeah, I guess part of it too is like you said, you're you're thinking through the robust RB in the more traditional sense where you start your draft with three running backs or three through the first four rounds. I'm kind of thinking about it from like a new age perspective where you would take two running backs in your first three picks and then one or two running backs in the mid round. That's kind of my definition of the new robust balanced robust.
Yeah, it's kind of balanced robust. It is more of a balanced strategy if you really talk me into it. It's kind of that's kind of what I'm suggesting because then in rounds six and seven I would start taking receivers and then it would just become a balanced strategy.
So, um, hero running back. You were pushing to have this one higher. Why?
Uh, hero running back simply off the fact that I like, um, starting my draft with a running back and a receiver. And depending on where you're picking on the board, um, I love the T. Higgins range, the Z Flowers range, the Jaylen Wadd range, a lot of those guys. I will admit, hero running back definitely more optimal either at the way end of the board or the way beginning of the board. I don't think I want to run a hero running back in the middle of the board. But if I start with a Gibbs and I know I can fade for the next couple picks, grab a Rashid Rice, grab a Nico Collins, maybe at the end of the fourth round I get a Coulson Lovelin. To me, I think that's a a very very strong start. On the upside of the uh opposite side of the board, sorry. Maybe it's like a Genty and a Jefferson at the three four turn. Maybe two of the three falling receiver values like a Neighbors, a Higgins, a Zay Flowers, a Jaylen Wadd fall to you. I don't mind grabbing my RB2 and three in FI rounds five and six. So even though again it is technically more modified by the standard definition if you want to argue oh standard definition hero running back you usually wait till round seven. I think applicable context for this year because I actually do like the dead zone in the first four rounds following a hero running back I think is very nice.
Yeah. Yeah. Again, I I would argue that's more of a double hero running back. If you start with a first round or a second round running back and then take Trevian Henderson in round five or something, that's more of a double hero running back than it is a hero running back. Which is why by standard definition, taking one hero, fading it until round seven plus. I don't think that's optimal this year because then you're actually removing flexibility to take a Henderson, to take a Judkins, to take a Price, to take a Scataboo if one of
Those guys falls to you and you like them. So, hero running back for me would probably be like a C-tier strategy if it was just me doing this list, but we have it as a consensus opinion. Of course, double hero wide receiver.
Now, I would say the caveat is that at 103 and 104 specifically, I actually think it's the most optimal strategy you can run. However, double hero wide receiver from 101 and 102 definitely probably don't run it. Um, unless you qualify grabbing Nico and AJ Brown at the two three turn as double hero wide receiver, which I wouldn't. And then, uh, towards the middle of the board, again, you could run it. You could go St. Brown and London. You could go Jefferson and, you know, London or something at the end of the board. I just don't think it's optimal. I think you're going to get locked at running back if you do it.
It's rigid. You, like I said with Robust, where I don't like overinvesting at a spot because it doesn't keep me as flexible in the mid rounds. If you take your two receivers early, you almost know inherently, okay, three of my next five picks are going to have to be at running back typically, right? And if that's the case, it's like, well, what if you do have an elite falling value at receiver? What if a guy that you have ranked at 35 overall is staring you in the face at the 43rd overall pickup receiver, but you kind of buried the hold that like, oh, I drafted my two heroes. As good as this guy is, I can't take him here. Which is why, again, ultimately all of these strategies should be reactionary to what's going on in your league. You're you should be entering the draft with a balanced mindset and then adapting based off the falling values around you.
Yeah, I I think the again, double hero can work. If you're at 103, you take Jamar Chase, you get AJ Brown falling back to you, and then you get enough good value at running back that you can go Kairen Williams, Trevian Henderson, Quinn Sean Judkins with your next three picks, I think it could be really effective, actually. And that's kind of an inverse full house or an inverse full robust RB kind of strategy. But I do think that it's not going to be optimal from every area of the board, which is why it's in the C tier. It's pretty much only going to be an optimal or one of the more optimal strategies from the 103 or the 104.
I agree. um and a a strategy that I wanted to push higher simply off the fact that I like the click of Bowers where he goes at the early or the mid to late portion of the second. I am extremely high in terms of where the market value is on Coulson Love versus where I have him ranked. So because of those two factors, I really do enjoy elite tight end, but ultimately just structurally you have to understand if you're taking an early tight end, you're going to miss out on some running back and receiver projections you really like.
Yeah. And I while we get into the tight ends and the quarterbacks and stuff, I want to put the caveat here that we're doing 12 team full PPR. Yes.
You know, two wide receiver, two flex type of leagues. If you are in an eight team standard, taking an elite quarterback is so much more valuable than the other format. And we actually have on our site, um, I can go to it really quick, draft sheets, so that if you guys are in that type of league format, you can customize our rankings. Let's say you're in an ESPN league, a 12 team with a tight end premium and a superflex. You're going to get completely different rankings coming out than somebody who's in a one quarterback, 12 team standard or something like that. So, make sure to take advantage of the draft sheets to to really refine your strategy to get the best possible ones you can get. But, yeah, I think elite tight end for me is not optimal because I'm going to fall behind at running back and receiver. That's pretty much the only reason why I don't think it's optimal because I think you can look at the board and go, Brock Bowers projects better than all these receivers. Trey McBride projects better than all these receivers. Coulson Lovelin, if you're like Danny, projects better than a lot of these receivers. I think that's fair. I just don't want to fall behind at those positions because I really like Sam Laaporta, Kyle Pittz, Dalton Concincaid, Jake Ferguson, Travis Kelce. Like, I feel very good about the tight ends late. Hence why the balance strategy is in the S tier for us. And I feel really good about the quarterbacks late, which we'll get into in a second. So, if I'm going to take one onesie, elite tight end is the one that I would take. And for me, elite tight end is Loveland and up. It's probably not Warren or any of the other guys below it. It's a first four round pick probably on the tight end position is how I would define elite tight end.
I would agree. um I would very much rather take the elite tight end rather than the elite quarterback early. And we'll talk about that in a second once we get to elite quarterback.
Yeah. So the D or the D tier, the F tier, whatever you want to call it, a zero RB, it it's just not optimal this year. It's not, if we don't think elite tight end is an exceptional strategy. We have elite quarterback, spoiler alert, in this same tier.
Part of the makings of a zero RB is to be elite at quarterback and tight end to make up for the fact that you're not elite at running back. So if we don't think it's as optimal to do that, it makes sense why zero RB isn't as good. And on top of all that, as Danny mentioned, we're coming off of a season in which wide receivers really underperformed. So, if that trend continues, which I think it could, um the running back position is still going to continue to be very valuable and having zero top- end running backs is probably not an optimal strategy.
Yeah, simply put, you could be like me and think receivers going to bounce back in a big way. I truthfully do believe that. But, do I want to completely inhibit my aspect of the upside if running back does continue by not having one? No. I want a running back that can be a top three option, a top six option, a top 12 option. I don't want to be fading it. Again, I like the Jaylen Warren types, and I like, oh, you know, Tony Pard's a decent value. Oh, you can get, you know, Jonathan Brooks in the ninth round. It's like, I like those guys as complimentary assets to my backfield. Do I want them as my RB one and two? No.
No. And it's been better in years past. Like to be clear because we've been more a big proponent of zero RB in years past. But again, it's because of what the other positions represent. If elite quarterback is optimal, if elite tight end is optimal, then zero RB is more live. It's a better strategy as a result. But because quarterback and tight end are so deep, that's why it inherently devalues the zero RB strategy because you need to get high value over replacement quarterbacks and tight ends. And one thing that I've actually thought through, Danny, because we've talked about zero RB for years now, when you really think about it, you're basically forced to hit the nuts on all of your other picks to run a zero RB. You have to get the JSN this year, the Chris Ave last year, the George Pickins, like you know how difficult it is to make sure that you get that receiver from each round.
Yeah. And in theory, like if you're just saying like in a in a large field contest, oh, I'm gonna run a zero RB and I'm gonna bank on my ability to spot those profiles to pick the Jordan Mason who, oh, Aaron Jones gets hurt and he's an RB1. To pick the elite handcuff that gets that big time opportunity bump, to hit on the Jonathan Brooks because, oh, he's kind of devalued right now because of uncertainty. He wins the job outright from Chub Hubard. Like, you're kind of aligning yourself that everything is going to go completely right. And in a baseball large field contest, you're in BBM. Yeah, I want to have some zero RB teams because if I do hit the nuts, then ultimately the end result, the end [ __ ] reward is I'm $2 million richer.
It's one BBM before. Zero RB, one BBM four.
Exactly. Like 100%. It can win in a large field type of contest. But when you're in a 12man league where everybody has 8.33% chance of winning, you're basically completely erasing your margin for error.
Yeah. And so when we did the zero RB video, people were like, "Zerr RB sucks this year." It's like, "Well, we told you to we told you to wait for this video before you make that determination because we agree with you. We don't think it's very good this year." We were just explaining what it looks like to run a Zer RB. But if you go back and look through all those strategy videos of all the teams that we ended up with, I think the Zer RB one definitively was the worst teams that we ended up drafting at the end of the video. And elite quarterback, we can just speak on it really quick. It's very simple. You made reference to it earlier. Jared Goff, some of these guys going late at quarterback, I think they could outscore Joe Burrow. So, why would I take Joe Burrow early? Why would I take Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen early? Obviously, the caveat with four-point per passing touchdown leagues is rushing quarterbacks can lap the field if things break right for them, but it's not like quarterbacks are a guaranteed hit. You can take Lamar Jackson in the Flock League in the 303 spot like I did last year and have him not be an elite advantage because unless he is going to be a 22, 23, 24 point per game quarterback, that is going to be one of the worst picks in the entire round, which it ended up being for me when Lamar didn't stay healthy.
This one's personal for Cory after the last two years.
It is, man. And Patrick Mahomes in round four in the first year of the Flock League and then Lamar Jackson in round three last year. I have learned my lesson, man. quarterbacks in that league market specifically are very easy to find. I could trade for an elite quarterback very easily if I needed to. And I can also stream the waiverwire very easily if I needed to. If you're in a league market where quarterbacks are only 16 of them are getting drafted or something like that every draft, there's no point of drafting an elite one. At least there's no point of taking the first falling value at least. So to sum up just how bad of a strategy this is, Corey, I went into the off season saying, "Well, why would I take Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson early when I can get the next chair quarterbacks, Burrow, Caleb, all those guys in round six?" Then as the offseason progressed, I'm like, "Well, why would I take those quarterbacks in round six when I can get Dak, Lawrence, Herbert, etc. in round seven to 10?" And now at this point in the offseason, I'm like, well, obviously I still want to target one of those guys, but worst case scenario, if I miss out and I have to get a Brock Pery or a Matt Stafford or a Jared Goff, I feel perfectly fine. Like, like it doesn't it doesn't feel like there's any fear of missing out when I miss on a quarterback at all.
Especially when you have St. Brown on your team and your fail safe in the back of your mind is Jared Goth. I'm just going to say Jared Goth in round 11 if I miss out on all the quarterbacks. Like again, it's just so easy to fill out the quarterback position. Ultimately, every strategy is going to be best player available, right? The best strategy is draft the best players every single time. However, you do need to be aware in what round are the best positions going to be the best player available. So, in rounds one to six, we feel strongly based on the fact that balance is our top strategy, fading quarterback, fading tight end, that the best players available are running backs and wide receivers most of the time in the first couple rounds. And then again, maybe you will deviate for an elite tight end if it's there. But generally speaking, we are fading quarterback especially, but tight end even to a pretty high degree as well. So hopefully you guys got some value from this. Again, we tried to document what parts of the board it would be good from and so on and so forth. Um, but again, if you did enjoy, leave a like down below. Let us know what you thought of our tier list of both the draft selections, uh, 101 through 112 and also the draft strategies. When we go through the pick strategies in depth, 101 to 103, 104 to 106, etc., we're going to do individual videos on each one of those picks and we'll talk about and maybe even do a complete new tier list for each single one of those so you know the best strategy to employ from the draft pick that you're selecting from. If you're like me, you know you're picking from 101 in your home league or you know you're picking from 107 in your home league, we'll try and give you perfectly tailored advice for your specific league. So, um, if you guys want to check out all the bonus content, all the rankings, all the stuff we have going on on the site, season pass is live now. 34 bucks. That is a onetime payment, not a monthly membership, a onetime payment from now until the end of the fantasy football season. You will be covered from not only us, but your other favorite creators as well. You get all of our draft guides, all of our rankings, all of our tools, all of our bonus content. And again, if you guys are new to underdog, you can get our draft guide for free, our 2026 projections for free, our dynasty rookie draft guide for free, and also our weekly start sit rankings come the regular season for free when you make your first deposit on underdog using our promo code FSE. You make a play on the site within 24 hours, you'll have access to all four of those things. So, appreciate you guys for tuning in. But with that being said, peace out. We'll talk to you soon. You beat me. You beat me.