Transcription
What's up everyone? All right, so in today's episode, I'm going to give you my watch list for Monday morning and a game plan for the week ahead.
Just like last week, I'm going to upload this uh a little bit later in the evening because I wanted to wait for the futures markets to open to check the price of oil and the S&P 500. And what I can tell you is that oil is up 17% since Friday. Holy smokes. This is unprecedented. It really is. Um this is all due to the conflict that's going on in the Middle East right now.
So if we look at um and I'm just on my phone here um looking at the um crude oil futures. So two weeks ago uh crude oil was at about $63. It just hit a high of $111.24. So we're now approaching 100% in 10 days which uh that is really significant. I mean oil as we know is such a huge component in the economy. So this is going to have rippling effects across the economy.
Now, what surprises me a little bit is that while we did see some opportunities last week on stocks that were tied into the oil space, um, and let's see, we'll just look at um, for instance, BATL. BATL, this one moved quite a lot last week, as you may recall. Wasn't particularly easy to trade, but there was a bit of a divergence on Friday because the price of oil on Friday made a new high versus the high from earlier in the week. And yet, BATL did not make a new high. So, they diverged in uh in the way that they were trending together. That strikes me as being a bit unusual. I mean, the underlying catalyst was that the price of oil is going up and then all of a sudden the price of oil going higher doesn't make a difference anymore for the stock. I don't get it. And that was true with a couple other stocks as well. So, um, TMDE, this was one that was up, uh, on the oil catalyst earlier last week, didn't make new highs on Friday. Tet, this was up on oil from last week. Um, on Friday, it also didn't make a new high. So, I am a little bit perplexed at why we're seeing this divergence.
Um, the last time uh oil was um as high as it as it is. And so this is USO, this was after hours um on Friday right here. So this is going to be way this is going to gap up and be way up in this area right here. This is going to be a big gap up in in United States Oil Fund. So if I back this up and I switch this to a well, I'll just look at the daily chart here on USO. Um, the last time we were this high was back in 2022. Uh, let's see. There we go. So, 2022, where was this? Um, and so this was the last time that um, USO was that high, United States Oil Fund, and we're way above those levels already as it is. Uh, 2022 was also when we saw stocks like Indo, Indonesia um energy in 2022 made an unbelievable squeeze. This went from $10 a share to $90. And it was just look, it was a stock that at that time became really disconnected from its true market value because the price of oil was above $100 a barrel. It was it was squeezing up. Um, and it was squeezing up and some shorts got caught and then that fueled the short squeeze. So it became disconnected from the true market value similarly to the way GameStop did. But it was a pretty incredible opportunity. I'm surprised that we haven't seen something um I mean aside from BATL um and and so it makes me wonder what we may see on Monday.
Having said that, while BATL you could argue is a likely candidate for a squeeze on Monday, unfortunately what's probably going to happen is if it pops up, it'll be at 4 in the morning and then it'll sell off as the day goes on because this stock has not been clean or easy to trade. So, will there be other energy names that come out of the woodwork in the small cap space that start to squeeze up? I would be shocked if there aren't. I really would be, but I I've been shocked before. And we didn't have any big moves even on Friday in the energy space in spite of energy making this new high. So, it's a little bit interesting what's going on right now.
Uh, however, what we did see emerging as a theme last week were headlines on companies in the defense, military, defense contracting um kind of space, which makes sense with the conflict going on in the Middle East. So I think that that is definitely something to continue to watch. Um, and that can touch both, you know, tech companies, you know, AI, drone d for use in military applications. Um, it can it can touch a lot of different industries. So, that could be a headline that we do see heightened volatility from. I I expect that we will, but I'm just surprised that we're not seeing more um in uh in energy names.
So, here's my plan, and I'm going to give you we're going to go through those scanners, but my plan for tomorrow, uh, without a doubt, is to really pay attention to the sector that a stock is in, uh, and what the catalyst is. If tomorrow we have a stock that pops up and it's your classic, you know, clinical trial, biotech, FDA approval, or something like that, I'm going to think, okay, that's that's fine. I'm happy to trade it. But it's a little outside the theme right now that I think people would be really eager to trade. If there was a stock that had the right combination of catalyst and float, um, a lower float with the right catalyst, I think we could see a really good move at some point this week. I whether it's on an energy stock or it ends up being on, you know, a stock in the defense space, I'm not sure. Uh, but if it were one of the two, I wouldn't be surprised by that at all. So, that's kind of what I'm looking for tomorrow. Uh, you know, again, like the biotech catalyst, those are fine, but I think right now there's a bigger theme at play.
And although I'm not, you know, thrilled, you know, the conflict that's going on. I mean, I obviously I'm the type of person that I would just rather there not be conflicts in the world, but I understand it's that's not reality. So, in any case, um even though it's unfortunate that this conflict is unfolding and it affects a lot of people's lives in very real ways, um for us as traders in the market, what we're looking for is volatility. And uh regardless of the cause of that volatility at the end of the day, if we have volatility, then that creates an opportunity. And so there's a bit of compartmentalizing, you know, the reality of what's going on on the ground and how scary that must be to be someone living in those areas. Um, and what our job is, which is to look for uh volatility. So I expect that we will uh see some opportunities this week. I just wonder if they will, you know, how big they'll be. Um, but I feel like given the fact that we're seeing an unprecedented historic increase in the price of energy over the last 10 days, there will be rippling effects.
And now, so the S&P uh so while oil right now is up 17% which is um pretty impressive, the S&P so let's just check. So, right now, oil is actually up um 19%. As of right now, and I'm just checking this on my phone because um I'm on my uh traveling trading station here, and I have my futures um charts on my phone, not on this computer. Let's see. So, let me just check the S&P. Um, so the S&P 500 right now is down about 2%. And this sort of speaks to uh, you know, what we've been talking about. So we're at about 6,600. So spy that the market was hanging out here pretty topheavy, right? We knew that the market was sort of going sideways up here near the highs and you know, we were due for a bit of a correction. And so the market's already um right down about here um as of um the the current current futures uh right right around here. So uh actually a little bit higher than that but uh in in that area 66. So there right around there. So we're coming down a little closer to the 200 moving average um exponential moving average. So the market's pulling back a little bit and there's no doubt that um an increase in the price of um oil is going to have effects on um airline stocks. Uh airline stocks are going to be dropping tomorrow. Uh there's no doubt about that. Um and energy stocks will be uh likely moving up. So, you know, this is um this is kind of the environment that we're in right now. And it does definitely uh take a bit of uh focus off of what might be otherwise, you know, a typical Monday catalyst of breaking news on a biotech stock for instance.
So, the after hours top gainer scanner, um you had ATRA, which was up 50 58% in after hours. Again, biotech stock 4.8 8 million share float on this one. Um, so we back this up. This kind of pops from five all the way up to 850. Um, which is a pretty nice little squeeze there. Will that continue into Monday? It could. Um, the 200 moving average shows we've got room up to about 1027. And there was this gap on the daily chart that's sort of right in this area here. So, you've got a gap there. uh that you know that could give us a move up to 10, but unfortunately we're a little close to that. I generally find I don't do super well trading a move that began after hours because if it was really so good it would have just kept going. Um, I mean I know there's a bit of lack of traders in after hours. So, you know, it could close strong and then continue the next day, but it the daily chart's not super strong on that one. So, I don't think that's going to work. Um, and then the next one down are a little bit higher floats. So, those aren't probably going to work. And then then we get into gaps that are a little bit smaller. So, those aren't probably going to work.
Recent reverse splits and recent IPOs, those are catalysts that I would have looked at had we not had this um conflict going on in the Middle East. So, I I not that it um you know invalidates those setups. Recent IPOs and recent reverse splits can work just fine. But I think we have a bigger catalyst at play which will most likely be the focus for tomorrow. So that means tomorrow morning what I'm going to be watching will be my top gainer scanner. Where's my mouse here? So, I'm going to be watching the top gainer scanner, and I'm going to be watching um certainly the high day momentum scanner, but my guess is by, you know, 7 a.m. we'll already have a good sense of um what's moving in the market, where the volume is. I hope it's not on cheap stocks. Again, if it's on 50 cent, 80 cent stocks, I'm probably not going to do very well. So, hopefully the attention isn't on the super cheap ones. Um, you know, hope that's just my hope because it's not what I do well on, but uh nothing I can really do about it. So, it'll be where it is. But my preference would be that we have some good opportunities on stocks are between 5 and 10. That has been the sweet spot where I've been able to do really well.
So, you know, we're coming into the second week of the month of March. Um, last week I was up about $75,000. It was a great start to the new month thanks to one really big green day on Wednesday. And um you know this week I'm going to kind of keep the focus of 5,000 a day cold market daily goal, $25,000 weekly goal. But if we get something that starts to pull away and I can get a little bit of a cushion and I'm in the driver's seat, then I'm going to step up and t take some risk. I funded my account at the beginning of this year or I came in at the beginning of the year with $100,000 in the account. The account already has grown to over $700,000 just in the last um two months. So now with over $700,000 in the account, you know, if I saw a $56 stock and the setup was a quality, it meets my five pillars of stock selection, the chart pattern is good, the daily chart is good, I could take some pretty big size on that and potentially have a six figure green day, maybe even more if we have the right catalyst.
Um, I don't know. I'll have to check short interest on stocks that pop up uh tomorrow to see if any of them have elevated short interest. This is the type of um catalyst with energy where if a stock already had elevated short interest coming into energy prices going up like 100% in 10 days, shorts are going to get they're really backed up against the wall. So that could lead to a sort of a perfect perfect storm squeeze. Uh, but it would it would be based on a specific company, a specific uh instrument. So you know, we'll we'll pay attention to the ones that that are moving.
Um, like I said on BATL, I was surprised on Friday and I I took a trade on it and it didn't work out and I was kind of frustrated by that because I was like, I feel like I've really got the right idea. And part of me was getting a little emotional. Part of me was like, I think I almost want to swing, excuse me, swing trade this because I really do think it's going to work. I really think the price of oil is going higher and I was right. The price of oil did go higher and yet these two are diverging even yesterday, right? So even on f or I say yesterday, but even on Friday. So BATL if id held it to the end of the day I would have been down quite a bit on it even though the price of oil in after hours you can even see with USO was continuing higher so that is also a reminder not to get stubborn uh it doesn't might not make sense but look BATL who knows for all we know the company's deciding to sell more shares on the open market and that's creating a almost artificial ial imbalance between supply and demand with more supply because they're selling more shares. So if that's the case then uh that would suppress the price even in spite of uh energy continuing higher. So so as we know there's a number of variables at play and um in any event I think at this point I um am just going to focus on keeping it simple. Trade what's moving, trade what's squeezing and try not to overthink it too much.
So, let me see if I can find um short interest here really quickly on BATL. Let's see. Um, so, I might not be logged in here. Oh, come on. Log in. So, there it is. So, I'm going to check this real quick. Now, by the way, for those of you guys tuning in on YouTube, um if you want to uh join us for a twoe trial, uh you can spend the next two weeks trading side by side with me, watching over my shoulder. You'll listen to my audio video broadcast every morning. Begins at 7 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Um, and I stream while I'm trading. And you'll also have access to this software right here, Day Trade Dash. Plus, you'll have access to a selection of classes for my Warrior Pro curriculum. All of which are brand new as of this year. So, let's see. Uh, and the twoe trial is $20, and that helps cover your market data. So the cost to borrow BATL is up 447%. Utilization is at 73%. But the total short interest is only about 21%. It's not nothing. Um, but we've certainly seen higher. So I don't know something to pay attention to. Those you guys that are up really early tomorrow, you may see an opportunity on BATL. But I think at the end of the day, the price is too high. there clearly is already a divergence and maybe it's best to wait for the next one.
So although I have a handful of energy stocks in my mind that I'll be checking tomorrow morning to see if any of them are moving higher. Um, it's possible that for whatever reason something I don't fully understand right now there is a bit of a divergence. So we'll just see how things look tomorrow and I'll be streaming starting at about 7 a.m. So looking forward to seeing you guys uh in the chat room bright and early tomorrow morning. Let's try to make it a great week. Last week was really solid. This week, even if there's a couple of slower days, I think we're probably going to continue to see heightened volatility. So, let's try to make the most of it.
Reminder, as always, trading is, what do you what am I going to say? Risky. My results aren't typical. So, please manage your risk and always practice in a simulator before putting real money on the line. I'll see you guys bright and early tomorrow morning.