Transcription
This is from Iran's perspective, hypothetically, if I understand this game, then what will I do? I must push the price. I must make oil go up to 120 as quickly as possible. Therefore, Iran itself wants oil prices to be high enough to trouble the United States, but not so high that it troubles others. This was successful last time. So, now it's just a matter of time that oil is slowly climbing up and up and up. If it goes above 120, let's assume by the end of the month it's 120, and next month it's 110, 120, and so on. Because I believe all brothers and sisters, and Guitar, can guess what will happen to CPI. The question that should be asked is, do you think oil will go to 120 and stay there, or can it go higher? Due to what factors?
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From a geopolitical perspective, if P'Moo says there is a red line at $100 oil, $120 oil, and there might be signals from the capital markets, like bond yields indicating expectations or fear of interest rates. If that triggers, is it possible that the US will back down? Trump might use the same formula as last time. Because we already know that if they fight, there will be economic damage, votes, and political positions.
That's it. If it were chess, if it were chess, and I explained it, and you all understood it, you would know what Iran has to do, right? If I, from Iran's perspective, hypothetically, if I understand this game, then what will I do? I must push the price. I must make oil go up to 120 as quickly as possible. And before this, many of you might have said, "Oh, Iran, last time it didn't go up much." I've already explained why it didn't go up much last time. Right? But also, Iran itself doesn't want oil prices to go too high. Oh, because if oil goes above 120, to 150, to 200, and stays there, then the whole world will suffer, suffer severely. And who will they point fingers at, the US or Iran? I'm asking this first, right? This is predictable. Therefore, Iran itself wants oil prices to be high enough to trouble the US, but not too high to trouble others. Last time, this was successful. Yes, it was successful. But it turned out that Trump could counter the game, at least for a while. So, we've come to today. Why is it happening again? And this time, answering Guitar's question: if oil goes above 120, then Trump has to back down, right? It should be like that. The question that should be asked is, do you think oil will go to 120 and stay there, or can it go higher? Due to what factors? If Iran, today, must use whatever tools it has to make the market push oil prices up to 120, around 130, and then that will become a card that makes the US think, "Oh no, the US has to back down again?" But it hasn't reached that point yet. And some of the helpers have disappeared, right? As I explained earlier, some helpers have disappeared. So, now it's just a matter of time that oil is slowly climbing up and up and up. If it goes above 120, let's assume by the end of the month it's 120, and next month it's 110, 120, and so on. Because I believe all brothers and sisters, and Guitar, can guess what will happen to CPI, what will happen to bonds, what will happen to the stock market. You can guess. It will be like last time. And what will happen to Trump's reaction? I think it will proceed similarly, but there will be some factors that change, and some that won't. And this brings us back to the phase that everyone will be watching. And they say, "What should we do?" Right? Ultimately, we have to think. If oil prices go above $100 and stay there, we use the word "stay there." If it goes up for a week or two, I don't call that staying there. Yes. It goes up for a moment, takes a breath, and then comes down. Like last time, it didn't stay there for long, right? So, we call this not staying there, because the average won't be high. Do you understand this? Sometimes we shouldn't just look at whether it touches 120 and triggers something. It's not like that. This is not about triggering anything. There are other factors involved, but let's use the word "average." Right? Therefore, I have explained the scenario, the variables, and what is expected to happen. So, what is the competition now? The competition is, will Iran succeed in pushing oil prices to 120 as quickly as possible, and push it to stay around that level? That's the game being played.
Besides oil, finally, on the gold side, during the war in February and March, gold fell sharply, over 30%. Until now, gold has rebounded from 4,000 to reach a two-week high, even though oil is rising and the dollar remains stable. P'Moo, what is your outlook for gold in this new war and for oil prices that still have upside potential? Actually, last time I came on the show, I told you brothers and sisters that in another 3-4 months, I believe prices won't move much, but it will be a new uptrend in about 3-4 months from now, right? That's what I said. I said it would be around 4,000 for 3 months. Yes, approximately. This is plus or minus, it's not that precise. Maybe 4,100, 4,200, whatever. But I consider 4,000 as the downside. I will have a different view than others. Others might be unsure if 4,000 can hold, if it's a downside, a downtrend, or what. But I insist that it's not a downtrend yet. I still insist that 4,000 plus or minus will hold. But it might go up to 4,100, 4,200, etc. But the point is this: I always say that gold doesn't move much because the buyers, or those who come into gold, are like gold and oil. The markets are similar, right? Both markets are hesitant. They are in a state of "wait and see" and hesitation. What does that mean? The gold market happened first, so the price isn't moving because you don't know where inflation is really going, or if the war will end tomorrow. But now, because the helpers for inflation, the helpers for US oil prices, are fewer, right? As I've explained all of this, but in the next phase that is about to happen, there is a chance, or clarity of direction that Trump might face a scenario of 110, 120, and it will be a trigger that makes him back down. This clarity is greater than last time, because last time there were helpers. Yes. That is global inventory and China. But this time, it seems these helpers are weakening significantly. This means that the clarity of the direction of the war ending, in my belief, is higher. Higher means what? If I am an investor speculating in gold or investing in gold, I start to feel that gold has a clear direction. The war must end for sure in 2-3 months. I don't know when, but it's okay. If I just see that it will end in 3 months, you will invest. Similarly, oil is the same because it's linked now. Oil, inflation, gold, and the hesitation of "wait and see." This is the picture of the oil and gold markets that I want you to understand. And I believe that in 2-3 months, why 2-3 months? It's because of the election results, the economy, inflation, and other factors that will constrain the US, or constrain Trump. Therefore, it means that if he cannot achieve a swift victory, and Iran can make oil prices return to 120 and above, and stay there, then Iran will likely win this game. But not win the war, it's not like that. It's different.
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