Transcription
Tuesday. Looking forward to Powell taking the mic right now. Whether or not anything new will be added or what he could add, I have no idea. Looking forward to the markets reaction.
Is Bitcoin forming a gigantic head and shoulders? NASDAQ at what looks like some serious resistance. Let's zoom out for a second. We have going back all the way from 1974 until today. We got some strong structure in the markets here on the NASDAQ. And you could see that we are right now into an area of resistance off of the November 2021 top. We're going to be looking at that particular top in just a moment.
We're going to look at right now a lot of people are talking about and they're like it's this right here. I tried to get Grock to go, hey, could you draw Bitcoin on the girl with the blue shirt and then write gold on the on the girl with the red and and it it it really wasn't able to do it. I guess maybe my prompt wasn't the best, but nevertheless, pretty easy task. And a lot of people are looking at 2025 and they're like, gold is gold is roaring in the bliss. It's absolutely a delight. And it's not only gold. Silver right here is on deck. Silver trading, what is it? $44 has $50 in sight. A lot of people, rightfully so, think that silver's gone too far too quick. Gold, I thought gold had gone really far really quick. Look at that beauty right here. This is the massive resistance here at $50 on gold. Sorry, I said 44. Yeah, we're at $44.23 for silver. Silver looks like a gigantic cup and handle.
Do you remember what happened when gold was trading over here and we were at this area where gold was once again into the the $2,000 resistance? A lot of people a lot of people thought it was going to be rejected again because in the past five years, every time gold had came into $2,000, it had been rejected. It had been rejected much now like a lot of people feel that that's what's going to happen with silver into you know $50. The last time it was there was rejected hard. Makes sense it's going to be rejected here again. And and we we didn't feel that way. We said no, this is actually and relating it to the Fed cycle at the time. Fed is beginning to raise rates. Fed is going to engineer a slowdown and as they do that, this is the time to look for gold and up until things finally break and shortly thereafter look for gold to peak and there's going to be much more inviting opportunities.
Now things have changed since then. There's been a radical change in the fundamentals of gold. So it's not only the Fed cycle here. It is also now obviously the buying of gold over treasuries from central banks. It's a massive fundamental shift. A lot of people think that, you know what, Trump and Bessant knew what was coming, which is why, do you remember when they when they were bringing all that gold home? There was a reason they were doing that and they were getting ready. Are they on the right side? We're going to find out. Gold didn't stop. Gold not did not stop at that at that $2,000 resistance and has been on an incredible ascent. I thought it was pretty overbought over here because it is overbought and it has been overbought and it's been overbought here for a record amount of time. The most the the longest in many in in measured by months that gold has been overbought even going back to when gold was deped from the dollar and you had that massive massive massive moves on gold. So something different is taking place here. Does that mean that it's going to go up and to the right forever? Obviously not. Uh, you know, again, I thought this consolidation was going to offer a more inviting opportunity and it did not. And the the quick ascent on gold has been magnificent. Uh, look, you have me. What what's happening is different. I don't know what happens next. I think a lot of people for sure are ready for whether they're looking to sell or not are just ready prepared mentally if you get some type of pullback. You know, could we remain oversold for another month for another three month? I don't know. It's crazy what's been happening. I don't expect why mean reversion makes sense at any particular point in time. I don't know how much of uh opportunity we will get. But point being is a lot of people are looking at measuring from 2025, January 2025 until today. And they're like, clearly gold is, you know, magnificent. I think it's a very poor point of reference for one particular reason. Gold had just made a 50% move up. Go, you know, gold, Bitcoin did. I'm going to go over here and and you can see coming into, you know, from the election in November 2024. And here you have, you know, go uh Bitcoin making a 50% move up in in in in about 45 days. In less than 60 days, it's able to make a 50% move up. So, when you start measuring a point of reference of an asset after it just made a 50% move up, I'm not sure that's the best point of reference. My my own personal belief, we're going to look at what I believe are other very important points of reference. And one there's one particular one that does not point to uh let's say Bitcoin the king of all kings the king of all assets being able to outperform from any point. We'll look at it all but again so from 2025 I hear Powell one second let me get this guy out of here. We go. So I don't think personally when people look at January 2025 that it's probably the best point of reference in so much as that Bitcoin had just made in 45 days a 50% move up.
Talking to someone else earlier this morning, they're like, "Listen, I I bought gold in in March of two Bitcoin in March of 2024 and you know, GDX has been been outperforming." Same same thing. Well, you you bought it when in a 90-day period, Bitcoin had made a 50% move up. So obviously after Bitcoin makes that move up, you're attracted to it. You're buying it, but you're you're buying an asset after a 50% move up in less than 90 days. It's probably not the best. It's your point of reference because it's where you bought it and began stacking. But as far as looking and measuring assets and their performance versus each other, it's probably not the best reference point to use in so much that you know it's like measuring gold after after gold does peak a and just peak for as a pullback or consolidation. But you know gold over here in you know what do what are we up in? I mean, I I don't expect Bitcoin type things, but from that last breakout, you know, it's up it's up 13%. It's a major move for gold and it's happening in three weeks. You know, you don't begin measuring from that particular point. But I think that and and I really genuinely believe that the election is a really good vantage point to taking a look at Bitcoin. Why? Because well it had incredible ramifications about which administration uh won the election as far as you know overall policy and including the previous administration was completely anti-bitcoin and crypto and now you have an administration that favors it and and of course it makes a lot of sense and that's why you saw Bitcoin putting up a 50% move out of nowhere and again from the election till today it paints is a different story. I like not looking at the election per se and and I think that a really good reference point and one that we should all be familiar with is when the bull market began that bull market which began in we'll call it December 2023 when we called the bull market breakout 17,250. And if you look at it from this perspective, I mean this is what is there any Bitcoiner who's like, "Oh, I should have invested in gold and or tech." We got the IXIC, the NASDAQ over here tracking tech. And yeah, that's amazing that that gold is tracking tech. That is absolutely phenomenal. And gold is doing different things over here. It's entered a super cycle. And we're seeing something that we've talked about before. We're seeing a slow motion repricing of gold and Bitcoin in real time. Hard scarce assets. Now when you get it January, we're we're into September 9 months. That's a long time. That deserves my track. Yeah, for sure. Okay, I understand why people use the calendar year as a reference point. But be aware, you know, Bitcoin had just come up or moved up in about less than 60 days, 50% from the point that you're looking to track from. This is a much more uh let's say uh it's an important point when when the bull market began. And another important point, I'll look at the one that's not favorable last is is the is the COVID lows, the birth of QA, the beginning of the last Fed cycle, the beginning of it, right? And when's the next cycle? The next time they institute QE and obviously measuring from this perspective, I mean, gold's still doing pretty good. It's it's tracking tech pretty well. There's no question about it. And of course, Bitcoin here, it's not even comparable what's taking place over here. Are we going to see that same thing between, you know, obviously if you go back and you look at what was the point before that? It was it was 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2018 when you had, you know, Trump have to come in and he was like buy markets were into 30% correction. There's a lot of fear in the market and look at that gold and tech. They they're actually in unison with each other. That's pretty interesting because we've identified three particular assets classes, right? Bitcoin, tech, and gold as being ones that are going to likely continue to to outperform the devaluation of the dollar. And here you go seeing visualized except one of these is not like the others obviously and it's because of its market cap. Its market cap is absolutely tiny in comparison to gold. Gold has over a 10x market cap of Bitcoin at this particular point in time. Now five years forward, what's it interesting? Gold is is is being revalued. I don't think that any of us would be surprised if by the end of the decade or or or thereafter gold was trading at a significantly higher price. When I say significantly, I'm talking five digits. And if that were happening, the market cap of gold is going to be absolutely astronomical. But don't forget and and we've looked at this. I can't see one thing over here. There we go. I needed to see all I I didn't have the um y'all comments over here and and maybe that was good, but I I I feel like when I when I'm seeing the comments going by as we're presenting over here, I I feel like it's like I don't know. I I I just like like the vibes you all throw out there. Um the basement. Thank you, Dogg Nation. And so if you picture a world where in the next five to seven years uh gold is trading at five digits, you have to consider the the major debasement that's taking place. I think this is a good slide over here and you're looking at the dollar's worst year in decades. Now again, this is not fair. This is looking at the dollar measured verse other fiat currencies. If you were looking at the dollar and in it you had gold, you had Bitcoin and you had at least the the wand and and the wand has been devaluing. It's not like the the it's not like the wand is appreciating yet versus the dollar. Will there come a time when the wand appreciates versus the dollar? you know, uh that's not happening right now, but it's not included in the index, which is really weird. It's like, you know, it's just really weird. Um it should be probably gold making up 25% of of world reserves. It probably should have a 25% waiting in the DXY. That would make sense. It doesn't have any. That doesn't make sense. Anyway, point being the dollar and its devaluation is taking place and if you consider that that continues and through the next the end of the decade as this monetary reset is happening y'all you all remember when we were talking about monetary reset is happening monetary re I think now in 2025 it's pretty crystal clear monetary reset is happening it's happening and a lot of people have different like views of how it's expected to carry out and m is does the US plan on having that tied to to Bitcoin in one way or the other if they get their way? Perhaps and maybe. Does does China and Russia clearly believe that gold is something that's going to be able to protect them in this this new world? Absolutely they do. And it's very clear as China's relentless bid at gold continues.
So, let me jump over and then point out one area that is not favorable at all for Bitcoin. And I'm coming back to where where you saw the last bull market peak over here after the global lockdowns. And that was in November 2021. And from no November 2021 until today, it's been a horse race between gold and Bitcoin from that one vantage point. Now, is gold outperforming from that vantage point? Yes. Was gold outperforming 30 days ago? No. Is that going to continue to be variable? Likely. Likely. Um, is this say that maybe actually between now and the end of the decade uh it might be good for I I feel like a lot of Bitcoiners easily accept the the bullish case for gold. I'm not so sure about how many uh gold bugs do. When I say gold bugs, I guess what I'm trying to say is people that were were born before Gen X. I think for whatever reason, Gen X is has a really good idea of that transformation from the analog to the digital world. They live through it and they're able to kind of like understand why they both have a a time and a place and and I do believe that. Uh my own personal belief and and and you know, as a Bitcoiner, you can understand the whole lesson of of not your keys, not your corn, right? It's very real. And then in today's world, some people very well might, you know what, it's easier to store my Bitcoin, you know, in in in something like with with the enemy with Black Rockck, you know, do I trust Black Rockck? No. Do I prefer having my let's say um my play on the devaluation of the dollar through through Bitcoin perhaps on a trusted exchange where I don't have to worry about losing? Yeah, I could see a lot of people feeling a lot more comfortable with that, especially after things like the the blow up of FTX. Uh is it complicated storing your own your own keys? Yeah. Are there risks? Yeah. Uh, is it a lot easier? M is are there risks having your your Bitcoin exposure in a black Black Rockck ETF or Fidelia or any other ETF? Yep. Uh, could they one day provide an attack against Bitcoin? Yeah. Um, but anyway, with gold, you're always told that like always own physical gold. Well, good. I mean, you have to store that and it's very dangerous just like it would be storing Bitcoin and your keys at your own house to do that with gold, you know. It's it's it's very dangerous. Uh at least with with Bitcoin, you could have multi-IG in different geographic locations. I guess you could split up your gold, maybe bury it in a national forest somewhere, but or or store it in a vault. And if you're storing it in a vault, it's not your it's not your gold, not your gold. It's the same exact concept. So, what what this all was a roundabout way of saying is that I've always been a a a fan or advocate of getting exposure to gold through the futures market. And I get it. It's paper. You don't like unless you're accepting delivery, you're not, which you can't. You're not you're not getting you don't have any like it's not physical gold. It's just paper digits anyway. And this is not to say that like I don't believe in in the physical stuff or anything like that. But it's a lot easier and it's a lot it's a lot harder to actually have to sell and deal with the premium the physical stuff. It's a lot easier to gain exposure in and out in the paper market in the futures market. And the leverage, this is what I was trying to get at the leverage. I I heard I saw a pirate in the corner of my eye. I like that. You know, if measuring from the high and again, is this a fair vantage point? You're measuring it from when when Bitcoin peaked. You know, you're measuring it from the the highest price point that it had. Well, okay. We'll take the handicap. You know, it's like you're playing golf with Tiger Woods and you know, you for sure you guys got to play with with an appropriate handicap. We'll take the handicap. We'll go from the worst possible potential point of reference possible. But if you were gaining exposure through the few one one futures contract to gold that affords you the possibility to be controlling 100 ounces of gold and the ride is smoother up to date has been smoother and again this is a what I believe is a secular no I don't secular a super cycle in gold that's what we called it on the breakout in March 20ou 2023. I don't we'll we'll see at 5,000 in I don't we'll just reevaluate what's going on and talk about it. You could bury it. I I think na and maybe national national forests are the best place for that. You know, those that live in the US. Does does excuse my ignorance. Does Europe have the equivalent of like US national forests? Is there land in Europe that is uh governmentowned land?
Um, anyway, thus begins. So, first of all, a lot of victory laps taking place, rightfully so. Those that have been like all in on gold and and if you go if you judge from 2025 till today, get on you. You know, if that's when you began stacking uh Bitcoin over gold, it's working out. Any other vantage point, it doesn't work out like that. It doesn't make any sense. And if you're into or we're about to hit a bare market, as a lot of people do believe, we are in the window of what will be a bare market for Bitcoin for your cycle um enthusiasts. And look at the mega outperformance that could be expected if Bitcoin comes off here for 40 to 60% draw down. There's no question about it. Timing is everything. Our timing right now has us, you know, right now Bitcoin and crypto completely on the sidelines. That includes Bitcoin bull runs is right now out on the sideline. And then all of our eight hour templates were all out on the momentum is not there right now and that's safe and that is great. It could return at any point in time. By the way, stop loss on Nvidia this morning. Exit trade on IBIT this morning and we're just holding three of our six now in stocks a 50% allocation. FNGU currently holding 7% Tesla 17 and Triple Q 11%. Have you seen this is absolutely wild the seasonalities here is absolutely crazy and so is the this is the best performing track off of a 20% draw down. It is and you all know very clearly correlated to what happened in 1996 199 19 1996 1997 backto-back 20% plus years in S&P 500 then that 20% correction this is a good chart showing that like uh, you know that a lot of people panicking right now about stocks and gold pushing that that's a great one over there too and and I and I meant to do it except the outperformance of gold is more closely aligned to Bitcoin than when looking at tech. We have the NASDAQ over there and obviously if you looked from 2023 again the the NASDAQ has been going ballistic. Bitcoin's performance doesn't doesn't really compare, but a lot of people are caught up in what's happening. I like this one over here. Check this out. This is being offered. Hey, listen. If 2026 continues to see the expansion of this um let's call it Bitcoin cycle and and it is a bitcoin cycle and and for sure you all know how much I talk about the changing nature of the structure of this bitcoin cycle and it's for sure seen in you know measuring not only the downside volatility but the overall volatility and we know the participants are different Now retail is irrelevant and this is not a retail driven boom and bust cycle and there's a new uh there's a in the last week how much Bitcoin was bought by these public companies between Meta between uh strategy right one and a half billion is that is that right and people are like well the price is down yet but you are seeing Bitcoin being distributed from people who want to sell into people who are looking to to you know to hold that for a long time. And if Bitcoin comes off 30, 50, 60%, they're not selling. That's not what that's not what their investment thesis is. Uh will spot ETFs see a lot of outflows if Bitcoin corrects that much? A lot. It's very correlated to the price action. But point being, so I guess what I was trying to get at uh one thing was the changing nature of the Bitcoin cycle and then my relation to the S-curve. And then it it also is highly correlated to to risk, right? And I guess to start that off, let me get rid of gold for one second. And we're going to look just at Bitcoin versus the NASDAQ. And if you look at from from January 2025, right? Hold on. Maybe I could find it. Flow's been good today. Appreciate I mean really I I don't I'm not sure what the problem is. I know NASDAQ's at all-time highs and I know that Bitcoin is off all-time highs, but is there a divergence that's taking place since November the election? It's not close since 2024. You know, are people getting caught up in some noise or or short-term um just just preference? I'm I'm not really sure.
Someone said, "Is that a giant head and shoulders forming on Bitcoin?" That could very well be right. Early on in the session, someone was pointing out that they believe that potentially you're looking at and I could see a neckline right here. Our trend line, right? Very, very clear. Let's look at it from this vantage point. Is that so a lot of people remember what this was like. I'm going to get off the weekly or I won't get off the weekly here. Here's the WOFF of 2021. You had that first uh impulse up and then one, two, the spring and the neckline. Boom. So, are you seeing that here? Here was that the the move up the neckline uh not the neckline the the spring up and a break here. Is that it? Very well could be. The only thing is is that if if that were happening and you could see this was was it a 50% drop from high to low caused by Elon? Yeah, 50%, you know, and just hold on one second. I'm have a little fun going from that first impulse up. Well, it looks a lot different. This is the first impulse up that we're saying. Anyway, point being, if if it plays out like that, I I I mean, 90,000, you know, does that is that the is that a head and shoulders that could lead to a measured move that would be anything um or should be anything uh severe? It doesn't look like it to me. Let me just give you what a measured move would be just so we have an idea together. And so I think the lowest point would be from here to here. 20% drop off of there. I said 90. That's a pretty good eyeball, right? Taking us right to 90,000. And you know, is that a bare market in Bitcoin? No. 30% corrections are are expected. We've seen many of them. And I don't think that's that's anything different if that were to happen. Um I think that would be a lot more the same. But uh more importantly is that there are warning signs. We spoke about them yesterday and some of those warning signs were well Bitcoin bull market is no longer in the market as are any of our swing trading templates. And I did say that maybe if we start seeing some of our eight hour templates going ahead and begin attacking the the sell side that actually might indicate that we are oversold and that might be where we bottom out. Now we're still trading above the last swing low right and above the resistance formed from December and January. And technically there are warning signs and momentum is waning but we're I mean we're not we haven't made any breakdowns yet. The our our first early warning sign was momentum shifting. We're safe and we're out. That's it. You know and you know would it be a surprise here to see Bitcoin actually not break down and continue its run up? Absolutely. Seems a lot of right that right with me and be prepared. We just looked at what are some not only warning signs, what a technical breakdown entails and expectations if we get that technical breakdown, what could be very close in play. Newton, I want to get back to Newton over here and you know 2026, let's say we talked about Bitcoin in relation to its S-curve. Bitcoin is also has a high correlation to to risk and risk seen through through tech and there's no does it outperform? Yep. In a bare does it underperform? Yep. Both of those things high beta. Now could you imagine in 2026 this bull market continues in equity markets. And if it does, by correlation, you see Bitcoin's cycle continue into 2026. And let's say and relate this to Bitcoin. So, a lot of people, hey, listen, I've been in Bitcoin. Uh, I played this whole cycle since 2023. I was able to go ahead and buy it. Uh, buy it. I was able to go ahead and uh and and and dollar cost average in throughout the bear. Bitcoin is off its low by 5x. I'm completely happy. And fouryear cycle suggests it's time to get out. And then all of a sudden, Bitcoin's trading one 150 170. Whoa. 210. Wait a second. Something's different. Fouryear cycles. That that didn't add up. I'm missing the ball. It's time. I seen everyone. It's time to get in. Everyone's getting, you know, and then it keeps going and then people getting in and then boom, smash down. I could see this happening in crypto. We've talked about what I believe is the greatest risk to a lot of people as you could related to people misallocating into alts instead of Bitcoin over these last two and a half years. And this is why retail is not present and why retail is no longer relevant. This is a little bit interesting uh in case you wondered why stacks stocks are back near all-time highs and then you take a look at their actual uh earning estimates and they continue to improve. Remember, we've said watch out when they continue to to go the other way. Are tariffs eventually going to cause to the margins that these companies have to be eaten at? I don't Do you think that Mag Seven has any type of um exposure tariff related? It a lot of funny business is going on. By the way, bull markets last longer than you think. This current bull market 36 months in a couple of weeks with the average lasting 67 months. A lot of people think we've come too far too quick and it looks like it. We're at that important area that we were just looking at of resistance and you could see it from this view over here. Now, we looked at we we look at Bitcoin. We look at Bitcoin and when it gets into that uh euphoric phase and how it kind of when it if when it gets into that area right now we're in the sustainable channel. We we expect a lot more of the same unless we break down out of it or break up out of it. If we break up out of it, we expect that accelerated price behavior. Is that the same here with the NASDAQ? I don't know. We've only broken out of it one time to the upside over here back in the do uh leading up to the.com bubble. And you could see that extended price action. Could that happen again? If we get above this resistance, it's a major level of resistance. And it doesn't end there. And if you were just go like this, you could see that like this is a major area as well, not too far above, right? What's interesting is this accumulation channel. And that is one thing to watch out for. If we ever get into not not just that one, it's one that I'm seeing right now. If we get into that that accumulation cylinder, watch out. That usually leads to some type of elevated and extended price behavior to the upside. However, oh my gosh, you either get a job or or excuse me, I've seen this this girl out on on Twitter, Lindsay. um she wanted to get to one bitcoin and she works her husband works and she's been riding Uber part-time, you know, when she's not working in order to do whatever it's take to st You got to have that grind attitude. You got to have that grind attitude for sure. I got off topic of what I was talking about as I moved over to the NASDAQ. I'm not not sure where oh valuations and yeah there's no I wonder two things hear me out 15 to 20% of the mag 7's earnings are affected by the bottom 70% of of the of the population. We we see that how the top 10 and top 20 are thriving in this current environment. And we see that major major um like separation here between a very small minority of the population and the rest and how the bottom are going through even what could be called a a depression right now. It's very clear. I think it's going to continue to become more apparent. And the question is is does that affect the earnings of the like right now MAG7 making up over 40% of the earnings of the S&P 500 of the NASDAQ is the economy the markets Venezuela what is what's more important here and they are earning if the earnings change that's obviously something different I think is really weird if you all seen in the last couple of days, this whole circle of scamming that's taking place between Nvidia basically investing for example in OpenAI into Oracle and like you know that looking back was that going to be signs of some fagazi behavior that led to this meltdown? Probably. Does that mean it's coming anytime soon? No, it does not mean that just because people are very uh smart and aware and able to recognize things that like the music is then coming to a halt today. It could, but I it doesn't look like it. And um where else were we? We talked about Zuck and Zuck's like I like listen I'm just spending here and we all know uh Zuri the one of the founders of of Alphabet has basically come back in because of what's taking place with AI and getting himself as like the most involved because he thinks that the same thing there's no way they could miss this and they need to be on the right side of this pivotal moment in technology. They're like the spending's not decreasing yet. It's not even close to it. So, you know, with there's that saying when the tide goes out, but right now the tide is is coming in. So, just some some things um economic data, not not jobs market, but we've we looked at that quickly. I think that this needs a lot of attention. I think you could see it better over here. This is accumulating $1 million. Accumulating $1 million by investing $10,000 annually with a 7% 7% annual return rate, right? And if I could add this up quickly, it would be 15, 18, 24, 25, and then 30 years. I I want to make a chart doing the same with CTM T. And you know, I I know 70% we call getting it done. Let's do it with something like like a 40% just, you know, go or 35%. and try to underestimate. And with V4 here, we'll have to bring that up even higher. Uh, you know, we'll do that with 70% on V4 across Bitcoin and crypto. And let's get a template and a template that people could use as a goal in order in order to follow. That's something that I really want to get into. Yeah, I'm not an ostrich. This is something Luke brought up a lot earlier. This is something in our blood indicator and right now we are seeing acceleration of three month yields going down bid and in the past this has led to recession specifically in the last 20 years every time. So we continue to watch this is uh uh I said Sergy Larry Page and u and Zuck spending like crazy. I said 40%, that's what I thought it was. This says 35% of the earnings. I want to make sure that we could be ex as exact as possible. And the devaluation the devaluate a I think a lot of people uh and again I'm just reminded of of Venezuela and why the economy went like this. The stock market of the underlining like the stocks are press are priced in in in the fiat. I think it's part important to consider Anyway, light and sweet today. Not sure what Powell said, if anything. Let's go ahead and just see what the comments are. Page, but muddle along is probably I I talk about my view of acceleration. Acceleration probably is going to be seen five months from now. Until then, it's probably a lot more of muddling along, right? And Beige Book showing modest growth. That's a good thing. Economy growing not fast. We, you know, monetary policy has been has been very tight and there's that lag on that monetary policy, right? And so, right now, it's, you know, they're just beginning to ease it up. Let's see what happens into the end of the year if they ease it if they ease it any further. For now, we're going to call it light and sweet, fam. Have a beautiful day. See you all back now on the inside. God bless you everyone. See you soon.