Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are happy to meet again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, October 12, 2025, in front of a crypto market that is all green on one side, which is very pretty, which is pleasing. It's the performance over the last 24 hours because overall Bitcoin and altcoins are rising, and on the other side, all red, which is not pleasing, it's the performance over the week. And why am I showing this? Because it's Sunday and at Foufi's, every Sunday, we do a long-term analysis in addition to the daily. We do a weekly analysis to see a little bit where we are going for the coming weeks because the closing of each week is on Sundays at 2 AM, and so depending on the closings, it can change things for the weeks to come. Well, in addition to that, every Sunday, your beloved Fouinou is live from 9 PM to 10 PM. Don't hesitate to come, I read all your comments. We talk about anything you want. In addition to that, in all the lives, there are $1000 to be won. 10 vouchers of $100 offered by the partner Big X, which are sent directly to your BingX account. And to participate every Sunday evening, it's free. You need to have a BingX account linked to your beloved Foufi. The link is in the description. So for now, the market has entered fear, it's normal, but not extreme fear, not really the fear that hurts, you see, that is all red, where a big bottom is created. So, will it not want to enter extreme fear after all? Will it do as it has many times, that is, just stay a little in fear and then take off again, or will we have something very ugly to reach extreme fear where people are really in "it's over for crypto markets" mode, and then well, that will be the best moments. In any case, there has been a nice rebound since yesterday, we will look at that right away. So, the altcoins had a totally atrocious week with a candle that went down to about -42% on average. They were bought back strongly because if you take from the bottom of the wick to the top, well, it's more like +54%. So I can imagine, you see, the tourist who arrives like this, "Oh, altcoins are red today, let me do my shopping," and the guy is already at +50%. Well, that doesn't happen often. So, the altcoins went to almost their 200-day moving average, which is the biggest long-term support at $452 billion. What's nice is that they were bought back strongly, and we see that they closed tonight, or rather they will surely close at 2 AM above this support trio, which is really the trio not to break, around $719 billion. You have the Tenkan and the Kijun, which are the average price over the last 9 and 26 weeks. You also have the extremely important 50-week moving average, which is the average price over the last 5 weeks of the total altcoins, simply. So for now, the closing is okay, as long as we stay above this level, it's okay. If we start to break this level next week, the week after, then it will be very ugly because it will mean that the altcoins want to retest the bottom of the wick, you see. Well, for now, it's going very well. Now, altcoins, what's the deal? But we need to break this super Bollinger band at $964 billion, and then the super band will widen, and then it will be off to the races for everyone. Does the bull run feel it? Can we have a little bull run in the coming weeks? Well, for now, we see that the bulls' momentum is tiring, you see. So it's a bit complicated, a bearish cross could happen soon in a few weeks. The RSI is plummeting. So for now, it doesn't smell much like a bull run. In terms of structure, remember this big wave A of the Trump affairs, the customs duties from about December to April, where all the altcoins took a hit. Some took a very, very big hit, and others took a little less. This is a wave A. Once we looked for the 200-day moving average, remember we were there, we were looking for a rising wave B. We had it, zigzag, zigzag. Unfortunately, after an A, a B, we look for a C. And so, is this, what we had this week, the start of wave C, and in that case, it means weeks of mediocrity await us, or is it just a small checkout, and we are still in wave B which will continue to rise? The billion-dollar question. So, I want to tell you, as long as the altcoins don't break the 50-day moving average here, we are still in wave B. If we see next week or the week after a candle that breaks this 50-day moving average, it's wave C. Good evening, welcome. You'll have to buy diapers and tissues for several weeks. Now, on the daily level, well, it's not bad because we see that the altcoins closed above the 200-day moving average daily this time, which is the average over the last 200 days. So it's rather nice. It's bouncing, it's pushing. Well, listen, very good. It's going to look for the short zone. So we need to be careful because if the altcoins are rejected without any respect, it's in there, in this short zone between $677 billion and $823 billion. This means that if they manage to break this short zone, to reach the high, then it will smell very good, but if they are rejected by this short zone, we could come back to test the bottom of the wick of mediocrity. What will it depend on? Well, it depends on someone called Mr. Trump, and if he says, "Okay, I met the Chinese president, we still have no agreement." Because he always does that, he announces 1000% tariffs, 1 million 2% on tariffs, you see, the markets fall, and then he says, "Well, now we're going to talk." But he attacks directly, he always does that. He doesn't like Europe, it's the same, "I'm going to put 150% on Europe," and then Ursula says, "Wait, wait, we'll discuss." It's always like that. He even does the same thing for China, it's exactly the same. Remember, he went up 50%, 150%, 300% and then each time they talk, they agree, so well, but he always drops nuclear bombs before unfortunately negotiating, instead of negotiating and then dropping the nuclear bomb, he drops it and then says, "Well, we can discuss," it's his technique to scare people. So I'm putting 100% tariffs on you, you better find an agreement quickly, otherwise it will hurt you. Well, so we'll see next week what sauce we'll be eaten with, what Trumpian sauce, regarding our beloved Bitcoin. So, a small red candle, but nothing at all, because in the end, Bitcoin this week took a hit of about -15% rounded. It finished at -7%. Well, we didn't feel much, those who are only in Bitcoin like me. The gap here, we must always look for it at $110,990. Yes, the big joke, it hasn't been closed. Well, because simply when we had this drop, it was after the market closed. So, a strange coincidence. Well, so we would expect it to make a little comeback to $119,990. The most important thing for Bitcoin is here. There is a support trio also around $101,000. It's the 50-day moving average, the most important moving average after the 200. But the 200 means we are in a bear market, so I don't look at it. Okay? The Bollinger band and the Kijun, which is at $104,500. Knowing that the purge we had, went to look for this Kijun, a big support, which is the average over the last 26 weeks of Bitcoin. So for now, it's okay. Now, you'll tell me, Foufi, when is the bear market? Well, the bear market would be a candle that breaks the 50-day moving average at around $101,000, and then the Bollinger band will widen, and it will be a descent to look for the gap at $92,000 or lower. So as long as Bitcoin stays above $101,000 on a weekly closing, we can forget the word bear market from our mouths, clearly there won't be one. Well, for now, we see that the bears are there, but well, they don't have much momentum, but they are tired, so it's not bad. In terms of structure. Small A, small B, we are waiting for B to finish to later do C. Is B finished here? Does the weekly candle now say, "Oh, that's it, my God, it's over. We're going into a bear market"? Does this candle look like it will trigger the bear market? Well, I'll give you the answer. Well, no, there's nothing. It's a candle in a big zigzagging, zigzagging, zigzagging trend. It can zigzag and push for a long time. Well, so for now, it's going very well, I want to say. There's nothing telling us that a monumental correction is starting. To say it's bad, we need a weekly candle that breaks around $101,000, the 50-week moving average. We could even have red next week on a weekly candle that goes to the 50-day moving average. So, as long as the 50-day moving average holds, like here, the correction of about March-April 2025, and like here, the correction we saw in August 2024, August and September 2024, as long as the 50-day moving average holds, it will be a good opportunity to take off for everyone. So, I want to say, go ahead, Bitcoin, go get it if you want, the 100-day moving average at $101,400, there's no problem. I'll put big nuclear cartridges back in. Why? Because it's a gamble, either it holds and it goes back into bull run mode, or it breaks and we can buy diapers and tissues because it's likely to be not very good for a few months. You see what I mean? Well, but for now, I think it's going rather well. And Bitcoin to the moon, what is it? Well, break this super Bollinger band at $124,500. A green candle that does this, and boom, it's off. Shock to the peak, direction at least the 161 Fibonacci at $131,000, or even the 261 Fibonacci at $160,000. So, in the end, we see that it was an atrocious week, but rather an atrocious week for many altcoins. But at the Bitcoin level, well, for now, everything is fine. We are not questioning the bull market. Well, so no need to be afraid, we'll see next week, you see. On the daily level, so Bitcoin for now is below its 5-day moving average, it's not serious. Here we see that the 200-day moving average at $106,000. If we start to break this 200-day moving average, which is the average price of Bitcoin over the last 200 days at $106,700, then it won't be good. It would mean, well, maybe that's it, we're starting the correction below the 50-day moving average and heading towards $92,000. So a very important support to watch that we shouldn't break is $106,400 next week. That would be good, you see. For now, we have the Bitcoin short zone, which is between $116,000 and $119,000. Will it want to make a little push? Little A, little B, little C, make a little push. But be careful afterwards not to have the descent. I talked about it this morning in the video on the VIP Telegram. Well, so for now, we'll wait and see if it goes to this little short zone. At the liquidation level. Well, there's much more to the north, of course, than to the south. To the south, there won't be much liquidation, even if longs are open up to around $106,000, because well, as long as Bitcoin lingers here, it will pretend to go up, but people will open longs and longs and longs and longs in "it's over, we're going to the moon" mode. But well, as long as the balance is higher here, with more weight to the north, it will attract Bitcoin much more to go for liquidity. For example, at $130,000, there are almost $19 billion to buy. Let's go. Ethereum. So, Ethereum weekly, if it closes tonight below its Tenkan at $4,220, well, it's a bit less bullish in that case, it can increase the probabilities of going back to its next support, the Kijun at $3,240. You see, it would be good if it closes tonight above $4,220. That would be very good news. That is, it recovers a support. For now, the bulls, well, they don't have much momentum anymore, they are very tired. A bearish cross is coming soon on the MACD, on this momentum indicator, which tells us that the bears could take back control of the market, and it could perhaps dip. Well, so it's less pretty on Ethereum than on Bitcoin. There is indeed this wave A here, which dates back to the December to April correction, like everyone else. The B, which is zigzag, zigzag. Is this the internal part of B, and B can always continue to push, and Ethereum can go to $5,700, for example, its first next target, $5,778, the Fibonacci extension, well yes, it can. This candle doesn't tell us "that's it, it's carnage, the big C is starting" because after A, after B, we need C. Well, now, we can't ignore the amplitude of the candle, which did go quite low. Here too, everything will depend on the 50-day moving average here at $3,088. As long as $3,088 is preserved, it will be very good for Ethereum. It even has the right to go and reach it, and it will do its little run and take off. If we start to break $3,088 on a weekly closing, it means it will close the gap at $2,853 and go to its 200-day moving average at $2,420. You see? And the 100-day moving average, it must hold, otherwise it's goodbye to the gap at $1,733. So, this is not a good candle. The question to ask is, will the checkout end? And that will explode upwards, but well, that will depend on Trump and China, clearly, unfortunately. That's it. If, for example, with Trump it doesn't work out, then it will continue to fall until it reaches the 50-day moving average at $348. Knowing that the bulls are tiring, tiring, well, this scenario is unfortunately possible. Ethereum to the moon. When will that be? Break the super Bollinger band at $5,379, and then it will be off to the moon. For now, on the daily, it's holding its lower Bollinger band well, which is here at $3,729. As long as it holds, good news. It needs to try to reach its super Bollinger band for the coming days at $4,777. Breaking this Bollinger band means to the moon. Now, breaking this Bollinger band at $3,730 means descent to the 200-day moving average at $3,120, or even to the gap at $2,853. For now, the bears are there, they are a little annoyed, but we see a nice rise. Where will this rise surely go? Well, to the short zone between $4,265 and $4,481. It's normal, it liquidated longs to the south like crazy. Now, it will squeeze to go for longs, and everything will be decided in this short zone, like everyone else. If Ethereum passes its short zone and breaks it, it's off. It will go straight to the moon. If Ethereum is rejected by this short zone, it will be a return to nuclear descent. We see that well, since there are not many longs left, it's off to liquidate shorts, simply. At the Solana level, so Solana weekly, well, listen, it's going rather well. As long as it stays above the 50-day moving average at $183, it will be very good. On the contrary, the day it breaks $183 on a weekly candle, it will be a descent to the lower Bollinger band, where the gap awaits it at $121. And Solana to the moon. But if next week or in 2 weeks, it breaks the weekly super Bollinger band at $245, boom, it's off. Everyone up. For now, the bulls are tiring a bit, so be careful. But the structure for now is very good. Same as everyone else. Wave A here, it's long-term. Be careful. Then wave B, each candle is weekly. So imagine wave A, it started in January 2025. Well, wave B, well, it's still good, this wave B. There's no problem. You see, now what will tell us that wave B is finished and that we are starting wave C, and then it's off to buy diapers and tissues for months. It's to explode. A red candle that explodes next week, for example, the 50-day moving average at $184, and then it's off for wave C, at least towards $102, the 200-day moving average. Well, so you've understood that for now it's okay, but if next week there's a red weekly candle, not pretty like this week's, it's off for the big C, it's off to have an atrocious October, November, December, and we'll defy the statistics, you see, maybe not 3 months, but well, I think at least a month and a half, you see, at least half. Here, on the daily level, well, it's also very pretty, even though it's red and not pretty. Look, it's beautiful. It's been holding for 3 days, it's a moving average that speaks for itself. It's very beautiful. Look at these little touches. One little touch, two little touches, three little touches around $172. So as long as $172 is held, then Solana can try to attack its super Bollinger band at $244 and break $244. It's off to the moon. Now, you've also understood that breaking this 200-day moving average at around $172 means descent and it will sting down to $121. For now, the bears are there, those who are watching, be careful, it's pushing. Why is it pushing? Well, it's normal, it's going to look for shorts. Yes, because well, since we've wiped out everything to the south, there are no more longs. It has eaten shorts. There are some up to $256, and we see that the short zone is between $200 and $213. So everything will be decided in there. If Solana manages to break $213 and above $224, it's off again, straight up. It's a little market shake, and everyone takes off again. Now, if here, like everyone else, like Ethereum, all assets, you go into a short zone, you get rejected, it's the nuclear descent that continues, and then it will be very ugly. To finish with XRP, so a cute little weekly candle here of about -57%. What a big joke. Well, and so it almost reached its 200-day moving average. It had a little bear market there, quickly, you see. Well, and so, yeah, what are you doing tonight? Oh, I'm going to have a little drink, and then it's me. Okay, fine. Well, I'm going to watch a movie. Well, so tonight it closes, finally at 2 AM, if it closes above this support trio, it has to, you have the Kijun, the 50-day moving average, and the 50. So all of that above $242, it will be fine. If tonight it closes below $242, it will not be fine at all. Okay. So XRP, it's simple, next week, a red candle that breaks the 50-day moving average at $242. It's heading towards retesting below the wick. Now, if it holds well, and next week a green candle, in that case, it will smell good, and if it breaks the super Bollinger band at $357, then it's off to the moon. Is that possible? Here, be careful, the bulls, their momentum has broken the 52 RSI, so it's not good. XRP, well, it had a little channel here that was nice for a little A, a little B, a little C. But you had little A, little B. Ah, thanks Trump, you see. Well, so, not very, very good, but for now, it's holding its 50-day moving average at $242. So everything will be decided again on the 50-day moving average, like everyone else. As long as it holds it, it can try to take off again. If it's ever broken, it will be nuclear descent to retest the bottom of the wick. So XRP, it's rising like everyone else, normal, it has wiped out the longs well. Now it will take care of the shorts. Be careful that the 200-day moving average daily this time, which is the average over the last 200 days at $2,580, will be resistance here. If it manages to pass it, it will be good news. We'll say, "Oh, it's going up again quietly." It had a little -55%, and we're going back up. Ah yes, normal in the crypto world, you see, a little -55% and the next day we're going back up, everything is fine. It went to look for its overbought zone. So it was a very, very good zone for XRP to touch. Clearly, after you'll tell me, well, it's normal, at -55%, bam. Well, and at the liquidation level, well, it's rising because there's nothing left to the south. It's empty, it has crushed everyone so much that it's empty. So now there's something to look for up to about $3.30. There's $1.2 billion, so a little XRP rising is normal. And the short zone is very far away. It's already right in the middle of it because well, it crashed to the ground, it quickly went back up. So, it has a slightly special, messier structure, but well, it will follow everyone. So, friends, that's it for this little update. We'll talk about it tonight if you want during the live. I think for now it's going well. Despite the -55%, despite the giant cartridges it had on Friday, the weekly closing is rather good for now. It could have been an atrociously ugly closing. If, for example, we had broken the 50-day moving averages. Then I would have told you it smells deeply bad. Now, we are holding the 50-day moving averages, it's very bought. The closing is not bad. Now, next week, we need to go up again. If next week, there's a red candle that breaks the 50-day moving averages for everyone, it will be carnage, simply. I send kisses. See you later for the live. Kisses, kisses. He. [Music]