Transcription
Friends, have you noticed that in the past few years, the money in our pockets seems to be losing value more and more? The cost of groceries is rising, the price of fuel is soaring, and rent is increasing. Everything is parading upwards in price. The only thing that remains completely still is our salary. We work tirelessly, sweating profusely, saving diligently for 10 years. But when we look back, the same amount of money can buy less than half of what it used to. Many might start blaming themselves, thinking, "Am I not trying hard enough? Am I not working hard enough?" I'm telling you directly now, it is not your fault at all. The crucial point has arrived. What is actually happening is that someone is secretly levying an invisible tax on you. It's a harvesting of benefits that you don't even realize you're falling victim to. Why do we need to discuss this today? Because if you don't understand this mechanism, your entire life's savings will be drained away. Today, I will reveal the truth. Over the past 50 years, the United States has created something: the largest Ponzi scheme in human history. Do you know what's terrifying about this Ponzi scheme? No matter where you are in the world, whether you have US dollars in your hand or not, and whether you are involved in import-export business or not, everyone on this planet is a victim of this Ponzi scheme. No one can escape it. At this point, many might question, "I don't use US dollars. I don't buy US Treasury bonds. How does this concern me?" I'll tell you, it concerns you completely. Every plate of rice you eat, every drop of oil you fill, the clothes you wear, the smartphone you use, all the raw materials for production, whether it's oil, plants, or precious metals, their prices are all determined in US dollars. This is like the moment the US starts its money printing machine, the value of these goods in the global market immediately skyrockets. This creates inflation that is transmitted to our country. You feel like everything is expensive, while your income remains the same. The money you earned with great difficulty mysteriously disappears. This is how you are helping the US pay for their expenses, and you cannot avoid it. Let's continue. Why are central banks around the world frantically buying gold? They have been buying continuously for 16 years. Year after year, they buy thousands of tons. Why did Poland have to transport all the gold it had deposited in London back to its country? Or earlier, when India tried to retrieve gold deposited in New York, Indian media reported that the US authorities refused. It's clear, isn't it? Every country sees this Ponzi scheme clearly and is trying to outmaneuver and escape it first. Everyone fears that if the US bond market collapses, the US dollar will become mere scrap paper. Only gold is real, wealth that cannot be printed and cannot be deceived. Speaking of this, I recall a comment from a friend on our channel that received overwhelming likes. He explained the essence of this Ponzi scheme with great clarity. He said that if the US could actually raise interest rates, they would have done so long ago. Only by letting the dollar weaken can America be helped. The only way is to print, print, and print money. Today, I will analyze three points for everyone. I guarantee that after listening, you will understand the whole picture. First, we will look at why the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) dares not truly raise interest rates. How much truth is there in the threats of the hawkish factions that come out every day? Second, we will delve into who ultimately bears the cost of this Ponzi scheme. Why do I say this is not a secret plan, but an openly declared plan that you cannot escape? And third, we will plan how ordinary people like us should deal with this situation. How should we hold gold so as not to have our wealth siphoned off, and even turn this crisis into an opportunity for profit? Many may not know that in the Fed's meeting last July, three hawkish committee members jumped out and demanded an interest rate hike, but the final vote was 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged. Many, upon seeing this news, assumed the Fed would be aggressive and gold would fall further. This is looking only at the surface, not the core. The Fed chairman doesn't *not* want to raise interest rates; he *cannot* raise them. I have been in the precious metals trading industry for 20 years. I have seen this drama countless times. Fed officials like to speak sternly and threaten. Today, this person says interest rates must rise; tomorrow, another says inflation is still high. But when it comes to the actual decision-making vote, they all shrink back. Why is that? Let's calculate some simple numbers. We are now in 2026. The US public debt has exceeded $39 trillion. How enormous is this number? Imagine this: if you combine all the revenue from the sale of goods and services in America, plus the profits of all companies in the country throughout the year, it's still not enough to pay off this debt. And what's scarier than the principal is the interest that compounds like a snowball. In fiscal year 2026, only 9 months have passed, and the US government has already paid $857 billion in bond interest. On average, they are burning $23.8 billion per week just to pay interest. If this rate continues, I can guarantee that throughout 2026, interest payments will exceed $1 trillion. This figure already surpasses the defense budget of over $800 billion, making it the number one expenditure of the federal government. It's higher than the budgets for social welfare, healthcare, or education. This is equivalent to saying that for every dollar the government collects in taxes, 20 cents must be allocated to pay interest. This is insane! Many might argue that high US debt is not new. Wasn't it higher than GDP during World War II? And they got through it. I want to tell you here and now that the current situation is many times worse than during World War II. During World War II, it was an emergency situation. After the war ended, the debt began to decrease. But now, we are in normal times, yet the debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 120%, higher than the peak during World War II. And importantly, it continues to rise relentlessly with no end in sight. This is what's crucial to watch out for. The decisive difference is the interest rate. During World War II, interest rates were around 1% only. A debt of $300 billion paying $3 billion in interest annually was trivial, with no pressure. But now, interest rates are hovering around 3.5% to 3.75%. With $39 trillion in debt, paying $1 trillion in interest annually creates immense pressure, 10 times greater than during World War II. It's on a different level. Do you know what this means? If the Fed stubbornly raises interest rates by another 0.25%, the US government will have to find nearly $100 billion more per year to pay interest. If they raise it twice, interest will exceed $1.2 trillion immediately. By then, forget about developing the country or providing welfare; they won't even have enough to pay civil servants' salaries. The government will have to shut down the country. Therefore, those three hawkish committee members shouting loudly couldn't do anything, and interest rates had to remain unchanged. It's not that the Fed chairman has turned dovish, but they truly cannot raise interest rates. To be blunt, the three who were shouting about raising interest rates are all from regional Fed branches. They don't have to be responsible for the central government's budget, so they can say whatever they want without consequence. But if interest rates were actually raised, and the interest burden exploded, the economy collapsed, the person who would bear the brunt would be the Fed chairman as the head. He knows better than anyone that it cannot be raised. A senior economist who used to work with the New York Fed, and is now the chief US economist at a bank in France, just predicted in mid-July that for the remainder of 2026, the Fed will sit on its hands and not dare to move interest rates. Those who give interviews to the media every day about raising interest rates are either incapable of calculating the numbers or intentionally trying to scare you to help big players dump prices and shake out small investors. Having listened this far, friends, you must have a question in your mind: "So, how does the Fed not raising interest rates relate to gold prices?" I'll tell you, it's completely related, inseparable. For months, everyone has been feeling uneasy, right? News of conflict in the Middle East is rampant, the Strait of Hormuz is threatened with closure daily, and oil prices are shockingly soaring. According to principles, in times of war or global turmoil, people should flock to buy gold. But instead, gold prices are falling and falling, leaving many bewildered. Today, I will clarify this. On the surface, it might seem that the cause is geopolitical conflict, high oil prices, or resurgent inflation. But at a deeper level, it stems from the same negative factor: the market is worried that if the Fed cannot control inflation, they might have to raise interest rates again. This expectation of high interest rates is like a giant rock pressing down on gold prices, preventing them from rising. For the past 2-3 years, the heaviest pressure on gold has been the Fed's interest rate hikes and consistently high interest rates. But now, this giant negative factor has become a paper tiger. The Fed chairman makes empty threats, but in reality, he dares not act. How deep do you think gold prices can fall? Currently, prices are fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200 per ounce. It's not that they've lost momentum to rise, but this is the strategy of big players who are shaking out the small investors. They are shaking out those who are impatient. When the price drops slightly, they get scared. When there's bad news, they rush to sell at a loss. They are clearing out these people completely. Once they are satisfied with the shaking, this train will no longer stop to pick you up. Many might argue, "Since America has no money to pay, and they dare not raise interest rates, won't they default on their debt?" I can tell you it's impossible for America to default as long as the US dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency. If they default, the credibility of the US dollar would collapse. Then, who else could they bleed dry in the world? So, they have to resort to the same ultimate tactic they've used for 50 years: printing money. Yes, they just print money. They use newly printed dollar bills to pay off old debts. On the surface, it seems like the debt has been settled, but in reality, the purchasing power of the dollar is rapidly decreasing. The real value of the debt also decreases accordingly. This is equivalent to secretly levying an invisible tax on everyone who holds US dollars. It's a tax you can't see or touch, but the money in your pocket is devaluing every day, and you're buying things that are increasingly expensive. This is the openly declared plan. They say they will print money, but you can't do anything about it. Let me give you a clear example. Back in 1971, President Nixon announced the decoupling of the US dollar from gold, officially separating the two. Before that, $35 could buy one ounce of gold. America couldn't print money arbitrarily because if they printed too much, other countries would demand gold in exchange for their dollars. But after the decoupling, America went on a money-printing spree. Can you guess what happened? Ten years later, the price of gold surged from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. This was because the dollar was printed to the point of overflowing, causing it to lose value. People then rushed to buy gold to preserve their assets. Returning to the present day, why are central banks worldwide selling off US Treasury bonds? Japan, Europe, the Middle East, which were once major customers, have all been secretly offloading US Treasury bonds. In the past two years, the proportion of US Treasury bonds held by foreign entities has dropped from a high of 70% to less than 30%. The rest is for the Fed to print money and buy itself. Simply put, they print their own money and use it themselves. How is this different from the behavior of Venezuela or Zimbabwe in the past? It's just that the US dollar is the world's primary currency, so it's collapsing slower than others. A master macroeconomist from the UK just released a report at the end of July, clearly stating that foreign investors are withdrawing from the US bond market. Ultimately, if no one buys, the Fed will have to diligently print money to buy them. And that will further accelerate the decline in the dollar's purchasing power. Many ask, "Why don't other countries resist?" They can't. Because currently, international trade still requires the US dollar as an intermediary. Whether you buy oil, rice, or minerals, you have to pay in dollars. You are forced to hold US dollars and inevitably pay this invisible tax. This is the true face of the US dollar's global dominance, and the reason why America can print money and pass the burden onto the rest of the world. And ultimately, who bears the cost of this money printing? It's not the wealthy in America, but ordinary people worldwide. The impact is passed on in stages, and the end recipients are us. The first stage is countries that buy US Treasury bonds. They hold trillions of dollars worth of bonds. When America prints money, the real value of the debt shrinks. Foreign currencies painstakingly earned disappear for no reason. The second stage is consumers worldwide. Commodities like oil and grains are all priced in US dollars. When the dollar floods the market, commodity prices rise, creating imported inflation. You buy things more expensively, but your salary doesn't increase. And the third stage, the most pitiable, is ordinary people who deposit money in banks. Savings interest rates are completely defeated by inflation. Inflation erodes savings by a few percent annually. If you deposit for 10 years, your purchasing power halves. Think about it: in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, America printed trillions of dollars in large waves. The result? The cost of groceries, fuel, and housing soared worldwide. Only wages refused to rise. In the end, the karma falls on ordinary people. Some might argue, "I don't feel like my money is devaluing." That's because inflation is like boiling a frog in warm water. It gradually erodes it bit by bit until you're not paying attention. Look back 3-5 years, and you'll realize how much less 100 baht 10 years ago could buy compared to 100 baht today. Everyone knows this in their hearts. At this point, friends, you must have a question: "Then why have central banks worldwide been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years? Why has gold now surpassed US Treasury bonds to become the world's number one reserve asset?" The reason is that the analysts at these central banks are much smarter than us. They have seen through this openly declared plan for a long time. They know that they cannot rely on the US dollar and bonds. Only gold is true currency, which cannot be printed and will never depreciate. That's why the more the price falls, the more they buy. In 2023, they bought 1,136 tons, breaking historical records. In the first quarter of this year, they bought an additional 244 tons, a 3% increase compared to last year. They are buying relentlessly because they deeply understand that when the world becomes chaotic, gold deposited with others is not ours. Only the gold in our hands is trustworthy. Central banks are not buying gold for small profits, but to hedge against the depreciation of the US dollar, to protect themselves from becoming victims of the US money printing machine. After all this talk, what everyone wants to know most is: "What should ordinary people like us, who don't have bags of money like central banks and can't buy gold by the ton, do?" Should we just let our savings devalue before our eyes? The truth is, it's not complicated at all. You don't need to do anything fancy, no need to speculate on sky-high stock prices or volatile cryptocurrencies. Just remember one golden rule: never hold too much cash. Hold tangible assets that are strong and have intrinsic value. And gold is the strongest asset that ordinary people can access most easily and rely on the most. Many complain that holding gold yields no interest and that depositing money in a bank to earn interest is better. I'll tell you a truth: the bank interest you receive cannot keep up with inflation. On the surface, you might get 2% interest, but if inflation is 5%, you are losing 3% annually. The more you deposit, the more it disappears. Gold, although it yields no interest, will increase in value over the long term. The returns from gold will comfortably beat inflation, which is much more worthwhile than depositing money in a bank. I'm not just saying this. Let's look at the latest perspectives from major financial institutions this July. None of this is my own fabrication. The head of gold strategy at State Street predicted at the end of July that the Fed's hawkish policy has reached a dead end. In the next 6-9 months, there is a 70% chance that gold prices will surge to $4,750 to $5,500, with strong support at $3,750 to $4,000. Bernanke issued an analysis at the beginning of July stating that in the next 12 months, the Fed can at best raise interest rates 1-2 times and set a gold price target of $4,375. UBS just updated its outlook at the end of July, stating that the repeated testing of the $4,000 level indicates strong buying support, making it a very strong price base. They set a target of $4,675 for 2026 and $4,800 for 2027. This doesn't even include Peter Schiff, the well-known gold guru, who has vehemently stated that the Fed lacks the courage to raise interest rates because if they did, the government wouldn't be able to pay interest, and ultimately, they would have to let inflation run rampant to reduce debt. He set an initial gold target of $5,000 and a maximum target of $10,000. And there's the master of hard assets, Brent Johnson, who said in early July that within 1-2 years, the Fed will be forced to initiate another massive money printing round, which will cause gold and silver prices to skyrocket uncontrollably. The current period of price consolidation is a golden opportunity for ordinary people to get on board. See? Giant funds managing trillions of dollars and seasoned investors who have weathered decades in the market all see the gold market as bullish. They all agree that the Fed dares not raise interest rates and will surely resort to printing money. So, what do you still have to fear? The current price level of $4,000 is an excellent time to gradually accumulate. You don't need to fear getting stuck at a peak in the short term, and you don't need to fear losses because even if you get stuck, it will only be for a few months. Once the money printing cycle begins anew, you will break free from the peak and even have some profit. This is still better than holding cash and letting it devalue year after year. Many complain that gold prices are fluctuating and not moving, making it difficult to hold on. I must tell you that the period when prices are consolidating, or what's called "shaking out the weak hands," is the most friendly to retail investors like us. Big institutions have deeper information; they can accurately time their purchases at the bottom. But ordinary people like us can't do that. We have no way of knowing where the bottom is. The longer the price consolidates, the more time we have to gradually collect cheap assets. You can divide your purchases and gradually accumulate when the price dips. Don't fear missing the train, and don't chase prices when they surge. I have a friend who, back in 2022, when gold prices were consolidating, saw US tech stocks soaring like rockets. He couldn't stand it, decided to sell the gold he had held for 2 years, and used the money to chase tech stocks. As a result, he bought at the peak. After that, US tech stocks plunged 30%, while gold prices doubled. In summary, he suffered heavy losses on both fronts and couldn't stop crying. The golden rule of investing is not to be a jack-of-all-trades or to prefer a bird in the hand over two in the bush. You see other assets becoming hot and jump in. You might end up buying at a very high price, only to realize later that the gold you sold has surged ahead. You're losing on both sides. Why is the consolidation period the most discouraging for people? Because the big sellers will manipulate prices to swing violently. Today, they push it up $50; tomorrow, they dump it $80. They create such chaos that you lose your mind. When you think it will surge, it gets dumped. When you think it will fall long-term, it bounces back. Repeatedly experiencing this, you can't withstand the pressure and are forced to cut your losses. But believe me, as soon as you sell, the price will surge like a rocket without looking back. This is the dark art of big players in clearing out weak hands. I've traded for 20 years and have seen this scene repeatedly. Every time the price is about to make a historical low, it's like this. Everyone is desperate, everyone is pessimistic, the media proclaims that gold is finished. But afterward, the price surges in defiance. And every time the price reaches a peak, it's the same pattern. Everyone shouts that gold will reach $10,000. Even people who have never even glanced at gold rush to buy, and then the cycle ends. Currently, everyone is pessimistic. This is the signal that we are in the bottom zone. Many say gold has risen from $1,600 to $4,000, which is a lot. They prefer to wait for a correction before buying. I'll tell you, you will never see that price again. Big bull markets always grow amidst the hesitation and doubt of investors. By the time you feel it has corrected enough and is safe, the price might have already soared far beyond. Looking back to 2022, when the price was $1,600, everyone complained it was expensive. At $2,000, they still said it was expensive. At $3,000, they still said it was expensive. Now at $4,000, looking back at $1,600, it's clearly a giveaway price. Look at how much money America has printed. The debt has surged from $10 trillion in 2008 to $39 trillion today, an increase of nearly fourfold. How much has gold moved up in comparison? Compared to the speed of money printing overflowing, the current price of gold is not considered expensive at all. There is still ample room for it to run. Think about the 1970s. It was also a mess. The Fed was printing money, the oil crisis was overwhelming, and everyone thought gold couldn't go any further. But the result was a 24-fold increase. The current situation, with extremely high debt, even more rampant money printing, and more complex geopolitical problems, the opportunity for gold this time must be even greater than then. Once the market truly starts to run, hoping to collect cheap assets at $4,000 will be too late. By then, you will be in a dilemma: follow and fear the peak, or not follow and regret it. That feeling is the most painful. Many investors dream of buying precisely at the bottom, not wanting to lose even a penny. But in reality, the bottom appears for only a fraction of a second. You will never catch the timing. By the time you realize it, the price will have already surged. Ultimately, you will have to chase it at a higher price. Think back to 2022, when the price was fluctuating around $1,615. How many gurus came out predicting that gold prices would fall to $1,200 and declared the bull market over? But in reality, over the past 3 years, the price has surged from $1,615 to $5,600, an increase of over 3 times. Those who decided to cut their losses then must be beating their knees black and blue now. Look at the current situation. It's like a carbon copy of 2022. The Fed is playing hawkish games, analysts are looking bearish, gold ETFs are being sold off, retail investors are surrendering. But at the same time, central banks are buying when the price falls. The atmosphere of despair is so familiar. History may not repeat itself exactly, but there are often similar patterns. The dollars printed are just ink-stained scraps of paper, but the gold dug up is real wealth. This is a truth that has been proven throughout humanity's long history. It's not something that will change just because of the empty threats from Fed officials. Finally, I reiterate that all content is for market observation and sharing of opinions, not investment advice. This is Goh. I wish all of you the strength to stand firm and preserve your wealth amidst the fierce waves of the capitalist world, to welcome the golden age that is yours. See you in the next clip. Goodbye.