Transcription
I swear back in week four I was thinking, "Oh my gosh, there are so many exciting running backs you can put in your starting lineup." Well, now we're in week 10 and there are about 12 guys I feel comfortable with. But we'll talk about the 12 and then we'll talk about the gross options after.
Starting off with the obvious players that you know that you need to start. There's no reason to spend a single second talking about them. McAffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Bejan Robinson are all inside your starting lineup. You could probably safely say the same thing about the AT running backs. We'll talk about it just in case you're interested.
Um Jir Gibbs right now the Lions have an implied team total of 29 and a half points. Jir Gibbs the RB seventh this season in points per game. Yes, he's coming off an absolute dud, but he has big play upside. He can catch the ball and he's in one of the league's best offenses.
Um, James Cook is not going to draw as many targets out of the backfield as what you're going to get with a player like Gibbs, but James Cook is going to go out there and just give you a ridiculous amount of rushing production. He is currently sitting with a career-high 108 rushing yards. And this matchup against the Miami Dolphins is one in which you actually do have the Buffalo Bills favored by about nine and a half points. So, it's very likely that James Cook scores the touchdown.
Devonte Chan will be our next running back. Right now, it doesn't really matter if the Miami Dolphins project to lose by a zillion points against the Buffalo Bills because we've seen the floor of Devon Han this season is about 16 fantasy points per game.
Kairen Williams will be our next running back. Kairen always seems to play San Francisco quite well. I mean, he had 31 fantasy points against them earlier this season. You go to 2024, he had 31 points against them in week three and then about 13 against them in week 15. So over the past three matchups here, he is averaging over 20 points per game against the ners. And you do have the Rams currently sitting as three and a half point favorites. I understand Blake Cororm did get involved heavily this past week, but I'm going to be honest with you, it simply does not matter. They blew out the New Orleans Saints and that was not a real football game.
Now, the team that gets to play the New Orleans Saints this week is actually going to be the Carolina Panthers. So, this is one of the very rare instances where we can look at Rico Dattle as a favorite going into a football game. And if you look at Rico Dattle's three games in which he has started this season, he has scored 32, 34, and 28 fantasy points. And the lowest he finished any one of those weeks was the RB2. Now, do I believe that Rico Dattle is now all of a sudden the most talented running back in the NFL? Do I believe that all of a sudden this Carolina Panthers offense is phenomenal? No and no. I think Rio Dattle is a must-start running back regardless, especially in this kind of week though where you have a phenomenal matchup against New Orleans where you could realistically see this team being able to run the ball consistently in the second half.
Now, Dererick Henry will be our next player. Um, with Derrick Henry, you're playing at Minnesota. Obviously, he's been very disappointing so far this season, which has helped my underdog teams where he's only averaging about 13 fantasy points per game. But right now, you do have an implied team total of 26 points here for the Baltimore Ravens. So, they should score at will. I think the only teams that project to score more than them this week are the Indianapolis Colts, the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles Rams, the Detroit Lions, and I can't really see any other teams.
Now, moving over to the B tier, we are going to have Josh Jacobs, who's currently averaging 19 and a half fantasy points per game, and is the RB4. Now, Josh Jacobs is the running back one for my own fantasy football team. So, I am very excited to go out there and start him most weeks going into the future, but there's a big butt with this one. It's not a great matchup playing against the Philadelphia Eagles here. The overunder of this game is only 44 and a half points, so it should be slightly lower scoring. And also, we've seen Emanuel Wilson expand his role in this offense as of late.
Now, Quinn Sean Judkins typically is not going to rank this high in our rankings because typically the Cleveland Browns are going to be heavy dogs where it's going to be tough for them to run the ball in the second half. And if you look at Judkins, this is a running back that doesn't have a role on third down. But does any of that matter right now? No, it does not. Because with Judkins, he is playing the New York Jets. I don't know if you were paying attention on Tuesday, but the New York Jets, they waved the white flag. They said, "You know what? We are fine losing every single game this season by 30 points. Just give us future draft picks and let us have the 101 next year." So, um I think that this is a spot in which the Browns can actually win. They are favored in this game. And in that instance, you could have those rushing touchdowns there for Judkins.
Now, Siguan Barkley is the running back, too, for my own fantasy team. Um, Squin Barkley had the massive blow up the week before the buy where he actually dropped a total of 33 and a half points against the New York Jets. Well, I really was happy about that production back then. I'm afraid I'm not going to get it this week though because you have a horrible matchup playing in Green Bay. We already discussed that this does project to be a lower scoring game in general and obviously it's a tough matchup going up against the Packers.
Now, moving over to Kyle Manungai. Obviously, this is a ranking as if DeAndre Swift's not going to play. It should go without saying, but if DeAndre Swift does indeed play, then what you're going to need to do is you're going to need to move Kyle Manungai down these rankings dramatically. But, I mean, hell, this past week, yes, it was a phenomenal matchup playing against the Cincinnati Bengals, but still, he came through. We had a total of 31 opportunities at what 98 total yards. So, um, this match up against the Giants isn't half bad. They are favored in this game by about three and a half points. So, I'd start Kyle Manungai if you have no DeAndre Swift.
Now, Jaylen Warren will be our next running back. With Jaylen Warren. They are actually about three-point dogs here playing in Los Angeles, but he has fully cemented himself that he is the starting running back for this Pittsburgh Steelers team. Pittsburgh Steelers look pretty good. Um issue that you're going to have with Jaylen Ward in my opinion though is the fact that this is just a severely capped running back ceiling wise where we're not getting the big plays. He's yet to score 20 points in a single game this season. But still, you have a receiving role, you have a red zone role, and Kenneth Gainwells not really getting involved whatsoever.
Now, our last running back in this tier is going to be Ashton Genty. Tough thing with Genty this week is it's just a brutal matchup playing against the Denver Broncos where right now you have an implied team total of 16 and a half points here for the Las Vegas Raiders. I think the only team that projects to score fewer points this week, actually, I can't find one. I you even have the New York Jets, you even have the Cleveland Browns, you even have the New Orleans Saints projected to score more than the Raiders on Thursday night. But if you look at underdog fantasy right now, Ashton Genty is currently higher, lower, 75 and a half total yards. Except if you're new to underdog fantasy where if you're new and you use code flock, you're actually going to get that as a free pick. Higher, lower, half a total yard and you'll get $100 added to your account after you play your first five. Plus, you get free questions that you can ask me in the live streams, and I'm live streaming every single night answering your questions until the end of the season. You can find that link in both the description as well as the comment section.
Now, moving down to our C-tier running backs, we are going to have JK Dobbins. Um, with Dobbins, typically is going to be lower than this in our rankings because one, he has no role as a receiver. So, he is very much touchdown dependent and he has not scored a touchdown in over a month. We can go through and look at the games with no touchdown. He scored 11 and a half, 49, and 6.9 fantasy points.
Now, if you look at the snaps, if you look at the market share numbers, if you look at just the raw touches, very clearly RJ Harvey is not being used in this offense, but um RJ Harvey, you assume that he expands his role just because of how efficient he has been and he has been able to provide this team the few big plays that they've seen. Now, with that in mind though, um this is a great matchup against the Raiders, though. So, if you're ever going to see JK Dobbins go out there and score that rushing touchdown, probably would be now.
Now, moving over to Jordan Mason, I am making this ranking under the assumption that you are going to have no Aaron Jones. I need to stress that if Aaron Jones does indeed play, then obviously we are going to go ahead and move Jordan Mason down these rankings dramatically. Now, has Jordan Mason looked like an extremely talented running back? Nope. But he is just going to go back to seeing absolutely everything in this backfield. And this game here does have a pretty high overunder, I want to say, of about 40 and a half points. But an issue that you're going to have, of course, is Jordan Mason's not necessarily the receiving back. And there's a good shot that they fall down big to the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, Bree Hall will be our next running back. With Bree, um, I understand maybe you'd want to go through and maybe you'd want to rank him significantly higher than this based off the match up against the Cleveland Browns. this being one of the only spots in which the Jets are ever going to project to be in a close game. But with that in mind, the Cleveland Browns have a good rush defense. And on top of this, not sure if you've saw, the New York Jets gave up on the season. And Breeze Hall was kicking and screaming on Tuesday trying to get traded out of New York and I don't think he's a happy camper right this second. So, um, it's going to be tough for me to rank Bree Hall this week. You're probably still starting him though just because there aren't that many other options.
Like I absolutely hate the idea of starting Travis ETN. This Houston Texans defense is elite. You have an implied team total of 18 points here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Um this game currently has an overunder of 37 and a half points and projects to be the lowest scoring game of the entire week outside of maybe the Jets. And actually, no, I'm sorry. The Jets and the Browns project to score more points here. So, I would really prefer if we could avoid Travis ETN, but frankly, I think we are just going to have to go through and we're going to have to start him. Um, but for the love of God, stop giving the rushing touchdowns to Belle Tutin.
Now, Rashad White will be our last running back in C-tier. With Rashad White, obviously, this ranking is operating under the assumption that you have no Bucky Irving. If Bucky Irving were to play, you play Bucky Irving and you bench Rashad White, you're welcome. Um, but here realistically, if you are looking at what happened with Rashad White before the buy, he did get scaled back dramatically. The three previous weeks that you had had no Buck Irving with in this offense. Rashad White had played 80%, 77%, and 91% of the snaps. Then that fell to 55% as he was not looking great. and they decided to go through. They decided to actually get Shawn Tucker more involved, which it was kind of hard to blame them given how Rashad White was looking, especially at the goal line. This matchup against the New England Patriots is one in which it should be a pretty high-scoring game though. And you do have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored as well coming out of the bye-week. So, you'd probably end up starting Rashad White even if there are reasons to be concerned.
Now, moving over to David McGomery here. You are a massive favorite against the Commanders. Nine and a half point favorite. And this is the spot in which you can see David McGomery come through and give you the rushing touchdown. Now, am I going to sit here and say that Montgomery has a crazy high ceiling? Not at all. Because very similar to JK Dobbins, if McGomery doesn't score a rushing touchdown, his production is going to be in the gutter. You have seen the games with no rushing TD be eight and a half points against the Packers, 1.2 points against the Browns, 8.1 against the Chiefs, and then 5.9 against Tampa. But realistically, again, like we discussed, this going to be a spot where they should be able to just run the ball over and over and over again.
Now, moving over to a Mr. Kenneth Walker. Um, what was very interesting to see this past week is Seattle just let Sam Darnold rip it. And we have not had Kenneth Walker score double-digit fantasy points since week 10. He has no role as a receiver whatsoever. He's splitting a backfield with freaking I mean, Zack Sharpet. It looks horrendous for Kenneth Walker right now in Seattle. It's crazy that there are only like 20 startable running backs at this point.
Going over and looking at Kamani Vidal like he looked like a must-start running back this past week in my opinion and then all of a sudden he turned into a running back by committee. You have a Joe Alt injury. So this offense is just going to be worse especially the run blocking unit here. So think you have to take a significant hit with Kamani Vidal and then going over and looking at Trevon Henderson. Um, Hindo is obviously only in play if you have Raandre Stevenson out. Now, I will say with that though, um, you still don't even have him with every single touch out of this backfield where you do have Terrell Jennings getting involved out of all players.
The last running back that I'll mention in this tier is going to be Tyrone Tracy. Tyrone Tracy is currently battling it out with Devin Singleary and an offense that isn't great where neither running back is the clear lead RB and neither running back is especially that talented. So, it's tough to be excited about Tyrone Tracy.
Then going over and looking at E tier, um Zack Sherbet currently is averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. Um, you have this offense all of a sudden just kind of abandoning the run, looking to go out there and sling it while at the same time Kenneth Walker could expand his role at any point. And then with Alvin Kamar, Kamar looks like he is just done. I've never seen a player look this washed before. Like Alvin Kamar is averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game. He is averaging 3.6 yards per attempt and 4.4 yards per target. Both of which are career lows. Not even remotely close.
Dermacado, I would love to say like, oh, all of a sudden he's actually a lead back, blah, blah, blah. The thing with Dermacado is you're looking at a running back that's playing against the Seattle Seahawks and an offense that is projected to score fewer than 20 points. Well, at the same time, he's not good.
Jacory Kroski Merritt is currently a nine and a half point dog against the Detroit Lions. Jakori Crosscritt is not going to catch a single ball out of the backfield. I mean, we go through and look at this. He's averaging less than a reception a game right now. This I mean, he has he hasn't had a single double-digit fantasy performance over the past month. And now you have no Jaden Daniels. They have no shot to make this a competitive game against the Detroit Lions.
Looking at Woody Marks, I mean, he's averaging nine points per game. He's coming off a game with two and a half fantasy points. It looks like you're probably not going to have CJ Shroud. So, you currently are seeing the Houston Texans project to score fewer than 20 points this week.
With RJ Harvey, I understand the fantasy points have been there. is actually averaging 10 and a half points per game so far this season. But if you're going to go through and look at what we have in terms of the usage, he has not seen a game with double digit carries outside of Cincinnati. And if y'all remember that Cincinnati game, what happened? Oh, they blew him out and you actually just had RJ Harvey as an effective running back at the very end of the game. Now, he's got used as a receiver against Houston. He's been very efficient as well where he's averaging four and a half yards per attempt and six and a half yards per target. So, you'd hope they continue to get him more work, but right now he is currently high or lower 6 and a half fantasy points on underdog fantasy.
Then going over looking at Nick Chub, he's not getting used as a receiver. This offense looks like it's going to be really bad. You have no big play upside with Nick Chub either and the efficiency isn't great. This is back-to-back seasons with fewer than four yards per carry.
Um Devin Singleary's, I guess, in a competition for the lead back for the New York Giants, but he isn't the lead back. And at the same time, don't know if you know this about Deon Singleary, but he's not that good.
Then Tyler Algier, clear backup running back in Atlanta that you're hoping just gets a a random meaningless touchdown.
Kenneth Gainwell. I have him on my team. I'm rostering him just as a handcuffed running back. If something were to occur to Jaylen Warren, I'd assume that he can win me my league, but at the same time, with Jaylen Warren being healthy, clearly Warren is the starter.
Going over to G tier, um Bam Knight is an untalented running back that just lost his job to Amari Dermacado in a bad offense in a bad matchup. So, not super excited there.
Um, Chuba Hubard is in a bad offense and now all of a sudden playing beside the new LT. Blake Cororum is averaging four and a half fantasy points per game. This game against the Niners is probably going to be close, so I don't know how much he actually hits the field.
Um, Emanuel Wilson, it's a tough matchup against Philly. You're just a premium handcuff. And by Shell Tuton, it's the worst matchup you could possibly ever ask for going up against the Houston Texans.
So, all in all, I'm gonna be honest with y'all. If you do not have a top 20 running back this week put in your lineup, pack it up. Pack it in. Like, there is nothing to look forward to. Don't watch the games on Sunday, you're going to be miserable. But if you wanted to at least have some action, you can, of course, always sign up for Underdog Fantasy with a link in the description, link in the comment section. Um, if you use code flock, you're going to get a $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you'll get a free Ashton Genty pick, higher, lower, half a total yard for that Thursday night game. Underdog fantasies available in almost every single state. And you can find that link in the description as well as the comment section. But much love, ladies and gentlemen, and I really hope we get to see you out with the live stream sometime.