Transcription
The pullback has pulled silver back versus gold, obviously. It's never going to $50 silver again. MSA did not foresee the depth of this sell-off. I'll admit that.
>> Uh-huh.
We did expect a buy signal on silver. Long-term buy. It was at 56 bucks then. There's a 6-month wide range here, and we just broke through the bottom.
>> Right.
Well, what have we got now? Similar situation. Silver's made repeated lows, being bought in the low 60s. Finally, it blew it out this week.
>> Yeah.
It got to 55 and change. Right now, we're 58, 59, okay? You cannot If you're a bear right now, I'm going to tell you, you do not want to get back above 60 by much. You don't want to get gold back up anywhere near a percent or so above today's high again. If you do, they're going to blow your head off. They're going to This They're going to prove that what you just saw in terms of downside breakage
>> [music]
was a big trap.
>> Yeah.
And you just got trapped. That's where we stand right now. If these were price charts and you plotted those lines, you'd say, "I got to buy that."
>> Oh, yeah.
None of the long-term, like annual momentum of gold. This drop is just a drop. You're not breaking anything.
>> Are we facing a monetary metals disaster? And you you pose the question, is there something bigger going on beneath the surface? Well, tell us, is there something bigger going on under the surface?
>> Yeah, the bigger thing going on is bullish for gold and silver.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Uh but uh There's so many assumptions that have been driving silver and the stock market, frankly, uh over time, and especially over the last, you know, 3 4 5 6 months. Um War is bullish for gold. Well, gold went out there in the war. Okay. War's about over now, therefore it should go up, right? Well, it didn't do it. Okay, they don't know what to do. That news didn't work, okay?
>> Mhm.
>> [clears throat]
>> War is bearish for stocks. Well, they tried to sell it off, and as we we argued uh in during that March sell-off in the stock market, uh-uh, it's going to make a new high. We're bearish [snorts] long-term, okay? Stock
>> market. Uh and sure enough, went up and made a new high. Uh, now I think the stock market has probably seen its peak.
>> Mhm.
>> And you will start to see serious decline, but once we get down to certain key numbers, uh, and 5% or so below where we are right now,
>> Mhm.
>> but there's too many pieces within the stock market that are starting to fracture off in big technical ways.
>> Uh-huh.
>> I don't just mean slipping price, but cause major long-term momentum damage to their trends, annual momentum. I'm not talking about something that lasts a couple months, okay? I'm talking about something that when it breaks could last a couple years.
Markets keep rewarding the headlines they were supposedly meant to fear. And that contradiction should concern every serious investor. Michael Oliver notes that war headlines failed to produce the expected gold response while stocks ignored bearish narratives, suggesting the market is discounting a different future entirely. When price stops reacting to familiar stories, institutional positioning often matters more than public commentary. Next, Michael Oliver reveals why weakening momentum beneath major indexes could matter far more than today's headlines.
>> Uh-huh.
>> [clears throat]
>> And at the same time, we look at the sovereign gold situation. Unfortunately, fortunately, they've been going exactly opposite the stock market.
>> Uh-huh.
>> In other words, hey, stock market goes down, gold goes down. Well, gold went down, guys, okay? You had a good correction. We're 30% off the high. Silver's much more off the high. If you treat the high as a quote high, cuz it was really up there for a couple days, you
>> Yeah, right.
>> It wasn't like it lived up there for months. Uh, right now our technical work on silver and gold argues that this pullback is nothing but a major sharp corrective process in a massive bull trend. It is not at all completed.
>> Mhm.
>> Okay. On the way up over the last couple years, you can find versions of what we have just done at different and lower price levels. I'll give you an example.
>> Mhm.
>> Back in October of 2024, we gave it We first of all, in March of 2024, silver was still confined below that $30 high that occurred in 2020. But it was coming up to $25 in March of '24, not near the 30 high that occurred in 2020. But it got up above 25 and we said, "That's it. We're going to accelerate about of here."
>> Mhm.
>> And sure enough, they shot immediately within by uh March of Oh, yeah. So, in May, you were up to like 53 and by October of 2024, you're up to uh $35. Again, from that level at $25. So, you blew out the 2020 price high at 50 bu-
Sharp corrections often do the most damage to investor confidence just before longer-term trends reassert themselves. According to Michael Oliver, similar technical pullbacks have previously appeared before major advances rather than lasting reversals. That historical pattern challenges the assumption that every steep decline signals the end of a bull market, especially when broader structural conditions remain intact. Next, Michael Oliver exposes the overlooked historical pattern that repeatedly punished investors who sold during corrective phases.
>> Should be 30 bucks. It went up to 35 in October '24. Okay. They started to sell it. It dropped down to 30. Traded below it, but never closed a week below it. Went back up to 35 again in March of 2025. So, like 6 months later, you'd been in this 6-month distribution zone, constant selling, but they couldn't seem to break it.
>> Uh
>> And they'd get down to 30 and they'd stop it. So, it was a little box there.
>> Uh-huh.
>> 6 months wide. Well, how wide are we now?
>> Yeah.
>> Well, at the end of this month, it'll be exactly 5 months since that January downside collapse, January 31st, I think it was, last day of January. Anyway, about the same amount of time, and you were stuck in a range, silver and gold generally. Gold would go down to the lower 4,000s and get bid up a couple times. And silver would go down, for instance, in February, got down to 64, and ultimately in March got down to like 61 or something like that. The lower 60s resisted support, so there was a range, just like occurred back in that 2024 to 2025 price zone of silver, where it was capped at 35. But before you were able to break through that ceiling that any idiot with a price chart could see,
>> Right.
>> you blew out the floor.
>> Uh-huh.
>> And it was it was this range, 35 to 30, 35 to 30, and finally you broke through that $30 low, closed the week out like that at 28 bucks or something.
>> Mhm.
>> So again, back then, if you were looking at a price chart, that was pretty horrendous drop.
>> Sure.
>> 35 bucks to 27 and a half low, and
The most convincing breakdowns often become the market's most expensive traps for impatient investors. What Michael Oliver is highlighting is that identical range failures have previously occurred immediately before powerful recoveries, exposing how obvious chart signals can mislead when viewed without broader context. Retail traders often react to price alone, while larger participants watch whether selling pressure is actually exhausting itself. Next, Michael Oliver unravels why breaking support can sometimes become the strongest bullish signal available.
>> Yeah.
>> In in April break of 2025. And so when you looked at the price chart, you said, "Hey, there's a 6-month-wide range here, and we just broke through the bottom."
>> Right.
>> Okay. Well, what have we got now? Similar situation, silver's made repeated lows being bought in the low 60s. Finally, you blew it out
>> Mhm.
>> this week.
>> Yeah. In the
>> 55 and change. Right now, we're 58, 59. Okay.
>> Right.
>> Uh And oh, it's terrible. That's it's all over. You just broke through this big range bottom. We did exactly the same thing in 2025. Well, when we turned up from that low in April of 2025, by the time June came, you were headed back up to the highs. We said, "This is it. You're going to blow up again, upside." Well, you did. You went from 35 to the mid-50s in a heartbeat. Okay.
>> Yeah.
>> But, first thing you had to do was blow the bottom out of the price chart range.
>> Uh-huh.
>> So, everybody ripped their hair out and said, "Ah, that's it. You're never going to $50 silver again. Ah, da, da, da." You know.
>> Yeah.
>> And as soon as you did that, it was like over in a week. Next thing you knew, you were lift off again. I'm arguing technically we see the same thing now. Not just on the price charts,
>> Uh-huh.
>> but even more so on our momentum charts. We're seeing
>> Uh-huh.
>> You cannot if you're a bear right now, I'm going to tell you, you do not want to get back above 60 by much.
>> Mhm.
>> You don't want to get gold back up anywhere near a percent or so above today's high again.
The biggest portfolio mistakes usually happen after fear convinces investors that temporary weakness has become permanent. Michael Oliver's argument suggests recent price damage resembles previous shakeouts that forced weak hands out before momentum reversed sharply higher. That's why disciplined investors focus on whether underlying trends survive rather than emotional reactions to short-term volatility. Next, Michael Oliver reveals the momentum threshold bears cannot afford to lose if this correction is truly ending.
>> If you do, they're going to blow your head off. They're going to They're going to prove that what you just saw in terms of downside breakage was a bear trap.
>> Yeah.
>> And you just got trapped. That's where we stand right now.
>> I think you refer to that as a fake out flush kind of
>> Yeah, yeah, a bear trap. Yeah, a fake out flush for a bear.
>> Because the chart the price watchers are saying, "Wow, this is obvious. This thing is doomed."
>> Oh, it turned.
>> Uh and then and then the important thing is your momentum. I'm one of the I mean, I I I guess I'd like to ask you what to clarify once again, what sets you apart from a lot of the other most other if not all our technicians essentially is this momentum and structural stuff the name of your letter essentially. And I noticed uh your last weekend missive, for example, you showed, you know, price and momentum. And in this case, there was a decline in price over time. But at the same time for period, there was a an ascension in momentum uh in the gold I think this was a gold daily chart. That's the kind of thing you're watching. Do you need to see momentum confirm price? Is that the way it works?
>> Yeah, the what we just saw, for example, if you look at a price chart of gold or silver, you took out all the lows of the last 5 months.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Okay. So, that's what? Negative, right?
>> Right.
>> Major range breakout, it's all over, you're done. Okay. But we look at momentum. First of all, momentum's not near the low we made in March.
>> Mhm.
>> On almost any time scale we run of silver, weekly, monthly uh momentum, you're not near where you were in
Price alone rarely tells the whole story because institutional traders monitor conditions most retail investors never see. This is where Michael Oliver's thesis shifts from headline driven chart watching toward structural momentum that has yet to confirm the latest breakdown. That disconnect raises the possibility institutions are evaluating strength beneath the surface while public sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish. Next, Michael Oliver exposes the momentum divergence that could invalidate the entire bearish narrative.
>> In terms of momentum sell-off, so you've got a what you we call a non-confirmed low. Price made a new low. Momentum said, "What?" I'm going to make a new low.
>> It ain't happening.
>> But then the main issue is not the non-confirmation. That's that's a tap on the shoulder. That's all it is. Wet noodle indicator. We look for structural breakouts, meaning something when you go through it you hear a snapping sound. You get a gush. Right now when we look at daily, weekly, monthly, 50-day momentum of gold, silver we see nothing overhead but structures to break out through that are very, very close. So, if you look at the momentum charts and plotted the the overhead ceilings or downtrend lines that have been bumped and bumped and bumped you get next week, next month much above where we are now, like a handful of percentage points in silver, a couple percent in gold, you start blowing through all of these ceilings. Meaning, if these were price charts and you plotted those lines, you'd say, "I got to buy that."
>> Oh, yeah.
>> Now, price doesn't look like that cuz frankly, you could probably rally silver back up. You got to get above 90 probably to turn most heads. Cuz most of the rallies since the January drop peaked just above 90.
>> Right.
>> Right. So, they they don't know where to get back in.
>> Okay.
>> They don't know where to get back. That's the problem with I think
>> Yeah, that's the problem with getting triggered out and and you know, being triggered out exactly the wrong time. So, you try to time the market from a price perspective.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Anyway, that's where I think we are.
Markets often reverse before the majority even realizes conditions have changed leaving late sellers scrambling to re-enter at higher prices. Michael Oliver notes that momentum has refused to confirm the latest price weakness creating a divergence that deserves closer attention than the headlines themselves. History shows these structural shifts frequently emerge before broad investor sentiment changes, not after. For long-term precious metals holders, missing the reversal can be far more costly than enduring temporary volatility. Next, Michael Oliver reveals why momentum may be signaling a breakout before price makes the move obvious.
>> And I usually when these traps are sprung, the reverse of it
>> Mhm.
>> the return to the upside.
>> Mhm.
>> And by the way, the breakage that we suffered in gold and silver was evident on the price
>> Mhm.
>> daily, weekly, monthly. But also evident on intermediate momentum factors. Factors that once you break them, they're good for maybe several months, maybe a handful of weeks, etc. None of the long-term, like annual momentum of silver and gold, this drop is just a drop. You're not breaking anything.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Yes, it's a sharp drop, but it's in it's a zigzag within a long-term uptrend process of which this drop does not break anything. It's just a countertrend move. So, long-term momentum is not disturbed by this break.
>> Mhm.
>> And the problem with getting out, if you're an investor now. Now, if you're a trader, it's a different story.
>> Yeah.
>> We're focused on the investors.
>> Mhm.
>> If you got out every time the S&P, I mean, excuse me, that silver and gold did this thing,
>> Yeah.
>> blew out a range low, for example,
>> Uh-huh.
>> where did you get back in?
>> I didn't get in.
>> And I bet it was higher than where you got out
>> Right.
>> when they broke the floor.
>> Yeah.
>> Or you didn't get back in at all.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Which is like where I think we are right now. I think a lot of these people got out. They're they're through.
>> Yeah.
>> You keep thinking, I'm not going to chase this thing. It's already too high. And
>> Yeah, yeah.
>> And not
>> [laughter]
>> from a price perspective. That's what goes through my mind. Been so helpful to me over the years, Michael. Uh know, the time we had you on, you said you're sure we're not going to break the $50.
Temporary declines become permanent losses only when investors abandon a sound long-term strategy during periods of maximum uncertainty. According to Michael Oliver, the recent decline has damaged short-term sentiment without necessarily altering the larger structural trends supporting precious metals. That's an important distinction because emotional exits often occur just before markets recover, benefiting patient capital instead of reactive money. Investors protecting purchasing power should separate short-term volatility from long-term trend integrity. Next, Michael Oliver exposes why many investors unknowingly lock themselves out of the strongest phase of every bull market.
>> for silver on the downside, and it's looking like you're probably right on that again, so far at least. And I guess your your conviction is pretty strong given given what you're seeing on the momentum side of things.
>> Yeah, well, we MSA did not foresee the depth of this sell-off. I'll admit that. We did expect last November when we put out our last buy signal on silver, long-term buy. It was at 56 bucks then. Our prior buys in the prior years have been 25, 35, and 56 in November. So, our average price last couple years is down in the mid-30s somewhere. Okay. But anyway, we've returned to that last buy level at 56 bucks with November close. We did not, frankly, expect to see it come this low, but it did. But our our problem with being negative is we don't see any long-term reasons to assume this is anything more than a washout
>> Right.
>> to cleanse the puke the market out of its weak holders, to the latecomers who bought it at 100 instead of it last November or June of 2025 when it was 35. Uh they got shaken out. That's the problem with late entry.
>> Mhm.
>> You're vulnerable. Don't blame the market for your pain. It's where you got in that mattered. And in the long run, pulling back to 56 and now 58, 59. Uh, if you go up from here, you'll look back on this and say, "Geez, I did it again."
>> I do that? Yeah. Well, that's what I've said many times. I've done it again. Oh, my goo, you've done it again from the cartoon character who said that you've been very as I say very helpful to me in that regard.
Retail investors often mistake a painful correction for proof that the entire investment case has failed, even when the broader trend remains intact. What Michael Oliver is highlighting is the difference between entering late in a cycle and the market itself becoming fundamentally bearish. That distinction matters because institutional investors frequently use sharp pullbacks to accumulate while emotional participants capitulate. Protecting wealth requires discipline positioning, not emotional reactions to volatility. Next, Michael Oliver unravels why timing your entry often matters more than trying to predict every correction.
>> Um, in I think it was in your last weekend missive you talked once again about the most important gold-related technicals to watch. Singular technical to watch. Can you talk about that for a minute?
>> Well, there's multiple layers of buy signals we have above silver and gold right now. As I start, they adjust down each week, the weekly numbers adjust down a bit. Monthly numbers will adjust down starting next Wednesday cuz we're into new month, three-month average comes down. Therefore, the trigger structures that need to be broken through to signal that that indicator says, "Oh, I'm back in positive mode." Again, we're talking intermediate type things, not long term. They never did break. They adjust out in your face almost.
>> Mhm.
>> Not evident on a price chart, but evident on our momentums.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Now, one of the last, I would call it one of our last metrics of upturn in gold is the 50-day average.
>> Mhm.
>> It happened to be It's not just a silly average. You know, for instance, gold broke under its 200-day up three, four weeks ago. That To us, that's meaningless cuz it wasn't structurally important. You just wove it. You often weave these things. In fact, you did that back in 2023, and it was total false. Uh but the 50-day average oscillator actually has beautiful structure. Repeated three highs that have come up and bumped the 50-day from underneath after having broken below it. Meaning you've set a structure on the momentum chart that if you plotted it, you'd say, "Oh, boy.
>> Mhm.
>> That's a quadruple top breakout if I break through it."
>> Uh-huh.
>> You ever get back above the 50-day again, and I think right now it's going to be about 5,400 coming up here soon.
Some of the market's most important signals never appear on the charts retail investors watch every day. Michael Oliver's argument suggests that momentum structures can reveal a shift in institutional behavior well before traditional moving averages convince the broader market. That's significant because major reversals often begin quietly while financial media remain focused on yesterday's narrative. Investors waiting for universal confirmation frequently surrender the strongest portion of the move. Next, Michael Oliver reveals the specific trigger level that could activate multiple bullish signals almost simultaneously.
>> That's our last buy signal trigger level. But most of our triggers will start about, you know, I would say I said 40 It's about 4,400, not 5,400, excuse me.
>> At 4,400.
>> Yeah. Um many of our triggers will start to engage around 4,200. So, we've got like two, or three buy signal levels depending on which indicator on gold and we have similar ones on silver. And frankly, the proximity of the one to the other to the next is so close that it's likely that if you even trigger the first one, it's going to have enough oomph power to get to the second one and get to you know you get what I mean.
>> I see what you're saying.
>> dynamite that are all lined up.
>> Very rapidly.
>> And I think we're just below those levels right now and we're positioned if we sneeze to the upside, you're going to start blowing this stuff out.
>> Yeah.
>> And which argues to us is likely to be an upturn that is very rapid. I mean, you don't get a chance to rethink your so-called fundamentals.
>> Interesting. What about the what about silver relative to gold now? How does that stand because I know once silver sort of breaks out above relative to gold,
>> Yeah.
>> that's really another bullish sign for both.
>> Yeah, that is and the pullback has pulled silver back versus gold obviously.
Investors waiting for perfect certainty usually discover the market has already repriced before the evidence feels comfortable. This is where Michael Oliver's thesis shifts toward cluster technical triggers that could reinforce one another if key resistance levels are reclaimed. Whether that unfolds depends on future market action. But the possibility challenges the belief that today's weakness guarantees tomorrow's direction. Markets often move faster than investor psychology can adapt.