Transcription
Hi, I's Lesie. Hope you're well. Some of you have been asking me for an update on the gold medal situation, so I want to do that. And I want to actually draw your attention to some very interesting things happening here on the gold medal situation. Here, in fact, I want to explain to you what the meaning of this particular chart is; some important levels we're going to take a look at here. Plus, also the meaning of this particular chart on the two-week time frame, and also these charts you're seeing here and what they could potentially signify when it comes to gold. All right, guys, should be quite an interesting video. Let's dig into the chart of gold. Join me.
All right, guys, welcome back. Before I begin, I just want to mention something important here. It's possible that some of the hardcore gold bulls who are watching this video—okay, I'm talking about hardcore, uh, gold lovers—they're probably not going to like what I'm going to say in this video. Okay, and the reason is, well, I'll explain in a few minutes. But let me just first of all mention that I myself am an investor in gold. I own gold and silver. In fact, I'm a believer in owning gold and silver as long-term investments. Uh, so I want to first of all make that very clear because it's possible some people may misinterpret what I'm going to say in this video, that I somehow I don't like gold or silver. That's simply not true. Let me also make it very clear: this video is by no means a recommendation to sell or short or buy into metals or gold and silver. Okay, this video is purely for educational purposes. So what I'm going to do my best in this video is give you an objective and fair analysis of what I'm seeing here on the chart of gold.
And by the way, there's something interesting that happened to me recently when I went to Iran. So I was over in Tehran, Iran, guys. I got to tell you, the amount of people who were telling me that I should buy into gold—people who I knew who had no interest in metals, absolutely no interest a year ago in gold and silver—suddenly coming to tell me that I should go and buy gold. By the way, I was telling them over a year ago that I was buying gold and silver, and they had zero interest. Now, suddenly just a month ago, as gold was surging higher and higher into these levels, suddenly those very same people who had no interest in metals, they're telling me that I should go and buy gold. I should own gold. And guys, I have to tell you that they were shocked by what I told them and what I'm going to say in this video. So first of all, take a look at this: gold recently surged into this. This is a very powerful surge, which, by the way, we saw coming, uh, about a week ago.
Let me also begin by mentioning this: that in the member videos, I've been mentioning that gold very likely could move to the 2900 and even 3,000 levels. In fact, here's a few clips. We'll come back. So now the odds have increased for gold to continue the uptrend to 2,900, 2,950, to potentially 3,000 levels in the next several months. And there is still potential, despite the drop we've seen so far; there is still potential for a move to the 361.8% golden ratio extension there.
All right, guys, as you heard in the member videos, we've been bullish on gold even before—even before gold surged into the current levels—it managed to get to. All right. But here's the bottom line, guys: right now we're reaching some very dangerous levels on gold. And guys, I'm also going to mention some important warning signals that have not happened for some time. So we're going to go through these warning signals and these charts in just a few minutes. But before we go into that, though, let me first of all mention this. So what you see here is the chart of gold going back to the lows—okay, the lows of 2016 and indeed, uh, 2015. Okay, and what I've done here, if you were to measure—okay, if you were to measure this rally or this move from these lows and then measure it to this high—okay, and then you project that from this low—okay—and you get the 1618 golden ratio extension. Okay, the 1618 golden ratio extension of that major move you see there, that gives us this level that you see right there. That's the 1618 golden ratio extension at 3279 or 3280 approximately. Okay, by the way, there are two levels I'm watching here. There's a 100% extension at 3291, but the more important level I would say is, yeah, there it is, the 1618 golden ratio extension at 3,279 or 3,280. And I think that could act as an important resistance. So I do observe the 1618 golden ratio extensions because typically price usually holds these levels and we see pullbacks or corrections from those levels. Now, gold has not yet reached that level. It may do. I think if this rally continues, that's going to be the most important level I'm—I'm going to be watching: 3280 to potentially 3290. Two important levels I'm watching as key levels of resistance there are actually just under 3,300 as a matter of fact.
Okay, so I think given how the sentiment right now—as I mentioned, the sentiment on gold is extremely overbullish—okay, we have a lot of people again herding into this rally on gold. And I think the majority opinion right now, the majority opinion being extremely overbullish, I think that view is wrong. And it's not just because gold is reaching an important level of resistance; that's not just it. It's also because of warning signals that we've not got for some time. Firstly, as gold was rallying here, we have—we can see it just recently—this most recent surge that took it very close, uh, to this important resistance. This most recent surge that occurred last week, this triggered, first of all, the acceleration extreme red signal. That's something I do pay attention to when I—when I see red or purple magenta signals there. When this occurs on higher time frames like the weekly and the two-weekly and even the monthly charts, okay, this is an important warning sign of potential risk. Okay, usually comes before turning points. So when we see markets surging higher and then when we get acceleration extremes again—the red acceleration extremes like we got just recently last week—these red acceleration extremes signify extreme overbought conditions in the markets, so giving us a warning that there's more potential risk than reward in the next several weeks.
By the way, it's not just that; we also had the RSI 34 setting going above the overbought, uh, level there, just above 70. In fact, uh, as I'm going to explain to you, when both of these things happen—when we get the RSI 34 setting becoming extremely overbought with acceleration extremes as well—yeah, those are important warning signs of a potential top in the price. I don't mean—I don't mean necessarily a long-term top, but indeed an intermediate top before a major turning point or pullback in the price. Let me also show you this.
Hey, guys, before we continue, I just want to quickly mention: if you're looking for a reliable trading platform with fast execution, then look no further than Raidex Markets, who is our sponsor for this video. With Raidex, you can trade stocks, stock indices, Bitcoin, crypto, gold, currencies, and a lot more. You can apply for an account with Raidex by going to this link, which is also in the description. Thank you very much. Let's get back to the video. If you do a regression analysis—so if you get the regression trend—okay, and that's this particular indicator on the chart here—okay, so just grab that tool and if you draw from this low to this recent high—look at this—the price of gold went over the two standard deviation, the upper part of that channel, the upper part of that regression channel. Okay, and in case you're wondering, well, so what? Well, usually when this occurs—when the price of gold surges and goes over the two standard deviation upper part of the channel—okay, especially with overbought conditions—okay, as—as I mentioned, when all of these things come together and they merge together—yeah, they indicate that there's more potential risk, a risk of a pullback or correction in the next several weeks. In other words, what this chart is telling us is that we could be heading for the next several weeks into a major pullback and correction, a pullback to the averages or indeed back down to some key levels. Let me show you this, because I'm sure you're probably wondering, okay, what has happened in the past when we've got these things happening? For example, this is back in the year 2020. In fact, in the year 2020, I mentioned these warning signs on gold as well, when gold was surging and everybody was getting gaga—everybody at the time was going gaga, just going crazy, over bullish on gold. I mentioned a warning at the time in the year 2020. Again, five years ago, again we had—look at this—notice again gold surged and went over the two standard deviation regression channel, like right there, similar to what's happening right now, with RSI 34 setting becoming extremely overbought and acceleration extremes. Okay, when these things come together again, it's a warning sign. Like in the year 2020, look what happened afterwards. What did gold do? Well, gold then pretty much peaked there and then pulled—pulled back to—notice it pulled back to the middle of this regression trend, this regression channel, and eventually went to the lower part of the regression channel. It dropped down, pulled back to the moving average there, the 21 moving average on this two-week time frame. Have a look at this here. Uh, I want to show you two examples here: one from 2008 and one from 2006. Notice in the year 2008, a very similar situation: gold rallied. What did it do? It went over the two standard deviation regression trend, the regression channel. And notice as it surged and went over above the channel, again we saw extreme overbought on the RSI 34 setting, extreme overbought also on the acceleration extreme. So we had a red acceleration extreme. And what did gold do? Yeah, pretty much soon afterwards it started a correction. It dropped down, as we see there, uh, to the middle of the regression channel and eventually the lower part of the regression channel to the 21 EMA on the two-week time frame. Okay, and actually went lower than that eventually. Here's another example from the year 2006. Again, we can see, uh, gold surged higher. In fact, I can show you if I do the regression trend here. Yeah, there it is. Even back then in the year 2006, we had price going above the regression channel right there with extreme overbought on the RSI, with extreme overbought on the acceleration extreme, and this time we had a stronger signal on the magenta acceleration extreme. Okay, so again, when these things come together, what did gold do? Yeah, there it is. Uh, gold then pulled back, dropped down to the lower part of the regression channel and eventually down to the 21 moving average on the two-week time frame.
Let me also show you one final example here from 2011. Again, when gold surged and rallied in 2011, went above its two standard deviation regression channel, become extremely overextended, uh, again, once again becoming extremely overbought on the RSI 34 setting. This time we did not get a red acceleration extreme; we did get an orange one. Now, for me, the orange ones are not that important. Again, I—I focus more on the red and the magenta ones, but nevertheless, as we can see what happened afterwards—yeah, gold soon afterwards it dropped. It pulled back down, as we can see, uh, it then dropped down to the middle of the regression channel and eventually to the lower part of the regression channel, and it pulled back to the moving average there, 21 EMA on the two-week time frame here. Okay, so a very interesting, uh, situation, and we're getting similar situations with gold approaching an important resistance based on the—on the 1618 golden ratio extension, an important level of resistance which I do pay attention to: 3280. Again, we cannot say with certainty when this pullback or correction may begin, but I think we're coming very close to it. So we have resistance 3280, 3291 there, so it might potentially test those levels before it starts a correction. But going to this chart we have here—yeah, as I mentioned earlier, we have a very similar situation here as we saw with those examples. So once again, we have gold going above the two standard deviation, uh, regression channel there, going above that with RSI 34 setting become extremely overbought with acceleration extremes. As I mentioned earlier—yeah, so this—all of this increases the likelihood of a pullback down to support. So my view is, given all these factors, the higher probability is that we could see downside risk in the next several weeks. Okay, even if gold were to push a bit higher to 3280, 3290, it doesn't matter. The bottom line is that we're getting signals on these charts that seem to indicate that the higher probability is for more risk in the next several weeks than reward. Okay, so there's more potential risk than potential reward in the next several weeks, uh, and I think likely in the next several weeks on gold we could see a pullback and correction down, uh, I think potentially we could see it pull back to the 21, uh, moving average here, which is catching up with this, uh, I think the middle of this regression channel that puts it about 2,900 to maybe 3,000 and potentially even 2,800 as well: 2832. So that to me is the higher probability on gold: what all these signals seem to indicate, what these charts seem to indicate is caution. So we have to be very careful here and not jump on the bandwagon and move with the herd. Again, I know there's a lot of people out there right now in the gold community. I'm sure gold bulls are going to be scoffing at this video, saying, "No, Alissa, you don't know what you're talking about; gold will never drop; you're dreaming." Okay, guys, you know what? That's fine. Uh, I don't want to be part of the herd, as far as I'm concerned, uh, and for unfortunately when these things happen, there's a lot of hurting, uh, among people out there. And that's okay; that's—that's all right if they want to believe that; that's okay; it's no problem. All I'm saying is, from what I'm seeing on the charts, and again I could be wrong here—okay, so I could be wrong, but I don't think I am wrong based on everything I'm seeing on these charts as I just explained, uh, with the previous examples we just looked at and the previous warning signs on gold—again, everything seems to indicate here that at the moment there's a lot of risk in the next several weeks for gold. And I think the higher probability is for gold to pull back and see a correction, likely to these levels, uh, potentially 2,900 or 3,000 as the first potential target in the next several weeks, but potentially even lower, uh, maybe down to the 21 moving average in the two-week time frame, which is catching up with approximately 2,800 or 2832. So that's a level it may pull back to, but there's also a risk that it may pull back to the lower part of this regression channel, that puts it approximately—I mean, that puts it approximately in the 2700 levels. I mean, depending on how fast it drops. Now, I don't know if it's going to have a deeper correction like that, but I think the higher probability is for a pullback at a minimum back down to 3,000 to 2,900 to potentially even 2,830 levels there. That puts it approximately into this region, uh, where the 21 moving average on the two-week time frame is slowly catching up there as well. That's—those are the more likely levels in my view for gold to pull back to. All I'm simply saying is the charts seem to indicate caution and risk. Okay, so I'm personally looking for opportunities at lower prices, as I mentioned in this video. Okay, that's what I got in this video. Thank you very much indeed. And finally, let me just mention that I cover gold weekly in the member videos, so for more detailed analysis on a weekly basis of the chart of gold, uh, feel free to join and become a member. And if you're not a member, you can join at the link you see right there. Thank you very much, dude. Bye.