Transcription
Yo, what's up everybody? It's your boy Maine here back with another episode of the order book. I'm still traveling, so this is the last kind of ad hoc episode before I'm back home. Things are back to normal. Want to get a quick video out for you.
Anyways, got a lot of stuff happening. We got aliens. We got Michael Sailor talking about selling Bitcoin. We got Bitcoin above $80,000. We've got a new Hente virus. Is it COVID 2.0? We're going to talk about it all and much more in this episode of the order book. Let's get into it.
So, first thing I want to discuss is just Bitcoin price action itself. Um, so as you guys remember from kind of the last few streams, we were bullish here, right? We had discussed this pullback into this area of demand as potential support. And then what I mentioned and I really harped on in the last video is the fact that we had this sweep occur within that 12-hour order block. That sweep is what gave me the confidence and if you follow along on Telegram, Twitter, Haven, anywhere to post the long signal down here because once we had that sweep and it was actually a 12-hour sweep right into a 12-hour order block, which is like my bread and butter setup on the high time frame, it gives you the ability to tighten your risk. So instead of just longing this order block and having your stop below here, when you have this liquidity sweep, if you remember from episode three of the series I've been doing, that liquidity sweep can actually give you a clue that, hey, this is where the transaction happened. This is where orders were filled. Therefore, if I'm going to take my trade, I can actually put my stop below the liquidity sweep instead of all the way below the order block, giving us a much tighter risk-to-reward. And then if you zoomed in on the hourly, you had the entire hourly fractal that I always look for on these trades, as you guys know. There's your H1 breaker, that candle right there. There's your market structure break. There's your low. And uh your entry is obviously on a break and retest which is right here. Very tight risk-reward, very solid setup. So this ended up working really, really well. So if you took this trade, I kind of been updating as I go, telling you as I've tpd because we are coming up into high time frame resistance here. So as much as I'm bullish cautiously and I've been taking longs and we've been making money, I am aware of the high time frame, right? Always got to zoom back out, kind of snap between time frames to make sure that you're not lost in the sauce on the low time frame and say, "Okay, well, where are we high time frame? Are we into an area of resistance? Am I longing into a weekly fair value gap like we are here?" So, something to be aware of is that there is potential resistance here uh on Bitcoin. We have a weekly fair value gap here. If you go out to like the 3-day chart, this is kind of getting into the optimal area for a lower high if we're going to have one. And we're going to have another leg lower.
Now, high time frame, my view has not changed on Bitcoin at all. I think we either are going to get one of these two scenarios, and I'm going to crudely draw them out for you right now. Okay? So, I think one of these two scenarios is is most likely. Either the low is not in and we are due for some sort of new low and then a bottom in Q4 of this year, late Q3, early Q4 of this year, which is not very far away by the way. Q3 starts in like a month and a half. Uh, but something along these lines. Obviously, this squiggly line is not to scale. Neither is it correct for price. It's just kind of an an assumption of what it might look like. But one more low, maybe take out this low is what I'd love to see. Uh, and then bottom later this year going into 2027. That has been my kind of first scenario that I've been tracking for many, many months now. Go watch all these old streams, all these old YouTube videos. I've been talking about this.
The other scenario that I've been completely open to which maybe is gaining a little bit more validity validity as time goes on here is that the bottom is actually already in and now it's just a function of time. So rather than having another low, we might just have time-based consolidation and then that's it. The low is in. Just the only reason I don't think the low is in and we go straight to, you know, 100k from here and new all-time highs is from a timing perspective, it doesn't make any sense. We're still due to have a yearly cycle low later this year, Q late Q3, early Q4, uh, to stay in line with the four-year cycle, which is still intact because we topped within the four-year cycle, we bottomed within the four-year cycle, and everyone who's telling you otherwise doesn't understand how cycles work. Nothing's changed. So that still gives us a Q4 low just because we are due a yearly cycle low in Q4 or late Q3. It doesn't have to be a lower low. We can do it based on time. It could literally look like this where we don't actually ever make a new low. It could look like this. This could happen up here, right? It could be completely time-based. But I do believe we will get a significant low. Whether it's a new low or not is to be determined um in Q4 of this year. And that's where I'll be looking to deploy uh the remainder of my ammunition into spot Bitcoin and maybe some other coins as well. Um, but ultimately Bitcoin always um bottoms the same way, right? It's a consolidation. It's always a range. It's never a single candle. It's never a quick move and it never looks just like this. So even if this is this in fact still looks a lot more like this stuff um, you know, than it does like a high time frame bottom, it doesn't mean that the bottom can't be in. I'm just saying if the bottom is in, we're going to need some more sideways time and just some time-based bottoming price action uh for it to make sense. Accumulation needs to occur. If Bitcoin is going to go to new highs, money, right, big money, big players are going to need time to accumulate coins before sending it higher. And that accumulation happens either in a downtrend and then sideways or just in sideways in general. And we haven't really had accumulation yet. So, those are my two base cases. Those remain the same. Either the bottom's already in and I still think we have a major low in Q4, but maybe it's not a lower low. And however high this goes is kind of irrelevant because we're just going to look to buy that Q4 low and we'll just continue to trade well like we have been. We've been crushing. I've missed like two trades so far this year. Um, or uh we do still have one more low and this is going to be a lower high. Either way, it doesn't matter. The good news is we're several months into this year-long bare market already. The bottom from a time-based perspective is a lot closer than people think. Like as as soon as like four to six months away, the bottom's going to be in. That's really exciting. Um, and then from a time-based perspective as well or a price based perspective as well, the low could already be in or maybe we have one more low TBD.
Okay, guys. So, from a short-term time frame, now we've crushed this trade. We are coming up into resistance. Now, does this mean I'm just blindly shorting here? Of course not. These areas of resistance, just like areas of support, are where we look for setups to form. So, if we see weakness here, a sweep of a high and a breakdown, that might be, hey, it's time to short. We're in a weekly fair value gap. I'm gonna look to get out, which is the exact same as what I did here. I could have longed this 12-hour order block on its own, right? I could have, but instead I waited to see if the bulls showed up. They put in a sweep. There was my trigger. This is no different. If this just keeps grinding higher, I'm not going to short. We haven't even really had an explosive move. This has just been a very clear, methodical uptrend so far. So, with that being said, the next area of support in my opinion is right around here. So, you have right around here. We're kind of retesting that level. Now, if this area holds and we get another leg up, I think what the bulls would want to see is a significant higher high. That's what you want to see. Price can go higher. We can go up into the 80s, the 90ks here, uh, and still put in a lower high. Uh, so it's not like it's the bears are dead by any means. This is still a downtrend. But for now, the bulls, at least on the lower time frames, are in control.
I think another very important level to look at here is last year's range. So, this is the low of 2025. This is the high of 2025. We are now back above last year's range. And you're kind might be looking at this and say, "Oh my god, trader man deviation. Maybe it's time to head back to the range high right now." It absolutely could be. What I really like about this chart in particular is it gives you a very clear invalidation. Um if we're bullish, I don't think we should get back below um this last year's low. Like if this is a deviation and we're going higher or the lows already in either consolidation should occur around here, right? Or uh we shouldn't we should not lose this at all. Right? If we get back below last year's low, which is 74450 approximately, depending on the exchange you're charting on, uh I think that might be a sign of potential bearishness. And that also puts us back within um kind of this old price range here, right? This range from, you know, here to here that we've we've now broken out of. So, if we're really bullish, I think you want to see us stay above last year's low. I think this pullback, if there is one, should hold. And you either want to see price go sideways and chop and range here or just trade straight up higher, right? Like we absolutely could do something like this, right? And then that's the that's the Q4 low that I'm looking for. And this kind of entire area becomes our bottoming accumulation range. Okay.
So, exciting stuff nonetheless in my opinion. Um, the the two most worrisome things and we're going to talk about some of these as we get into some of the news items is obviously um the ha virus right which is co 2.0. I don't know. The mortality rate is way higher, but it doesn't seem to be as viral. That might not be the right word, but not as transmissible. It's not as contagious as COVID. So, COVID, you know, someone sitting next to you with COVID, you got COVID, but not as many people are dying. It's not killing that many people, unless you're a fatty boom, of course. Um, or um whereas antivirus, it's killing like 30% of people, something crazy like that. Fact check me if I'm wrong there, but I believe that's what I read on the internet, so you know it's true. Um, but much more um deadly. And is this the black swan that finally pops this AI stock bubble? Because um the S&P 500 closed at over 7,400, the highest ever. Um, this chart is insane. And some of these charts I I don't know how you can view a chart like Intel, right? And and not think that maybe we're in some sort of blow off the top type of move. I mean, someone asked me to chart this, I think last video, and it's up 25% since then. Like we've seen literally trillions and trillions of dollars added um to the stock market over these past few weeks. Um I'm going to read you something here. Uh Kobesi letter here. So the S&P 500 added $10 trillion in the last 29 days. Semiconductors AI stocks have surged a 100% in weeks and the Trump administration is up 500% on Intel. Um so just five stocks have accounted for 50% of the total gain since April 1st. Um and these are the same tech giants that are continuing to grow and grow and grow. The big ones, the Nvidas, etc. Um I mean look at some of these some of these coins. SanDisk coins. I call them coins. They're trading like [ __ ] coins. I mean, some of these charts are getting like insane. Now, I'm not trying to say the top is in, but I find it hard to believe that this is sustainable. This is looks to me by every single metric that I would use to determine something is in a blowoff the top phase. All of these markets are um are showing those. And maybe similar to COVID, the hent virus plus [ __ ] aliens, bro. Uh is the black swan um that is going to uh potentially be the obfusation for the bubble pop. I don't know. I think you remain long until you're wrong, right? And and as as long as the market's making new all-time highs and it's not, you know, pulling back below these old range levels, uh you know, I think you just kind of assume this is going to just continue until proven otherwise. But I do think the air is getting a little thin up here. I'm not trying to be a doomer. Uh but this can it go on forever? I genuinely don't know. Uh I genuinely don't know. This is unprecedented stuff that we're seeing in the equities market, you know, and the fact that this S&P is at 7,400 and Bitcoin's at 84 is kind of a joke. Uh but that might add credence, might add validity, might add confluence to the idea um that uh Bitcoin's already bottomed and now it's maybe just a timebased thing and that low at 60K is is the ultimate low. Um, you know, either way, like I said, exciting times to be a trader uh because there's volatility everywhere and I behoove you to not pigeon hole yourself to only crypto. Every time I do one of these streams live, people ask me about Dogecoin. They ask me about XRP. They ask me about Bonk or Sheba Enu or whatever other [ __ ] coin uh they've been holding on link for way too long. Not saying these coins can't go up. They very likely will, especially if Bitcoin has bottomed, we're going to see altcoins pump again, right? There will be pumps. There will be new coins. There will be all sorts of [ __ ] all over again. Uh but if you've been only looking at crypto for the last month, three months, several months, hell, year plus, you as a trader have been doing yourself a disservice. Now, I'm not saying that you need to trade all these other markets, but with things like NATO and Hyperlid, um, there's no reason to not be looking at some of these single name stocks, some of these indices, uh and at least paying attention. Whether or not you want to trade them, that's up to you. But what I will tell you is the strategies that I use, the stuff I've shared with you, the stuff that you're likely already doing in your own strategies, they work in other asset classes. That's the beauty of technical analysis, right? Specifically, the way that I trade price action, it works in all assets, all time frames. You might not believe me. You might be like, "Dude, how the hell um can I use price action uh, you know, in in Intel? This this chart straight up." Well, right before it went straight up, there's a weekly order block here. Okay? And in that weekly order block, we have a weekly SFP. And if you go down to the 12-hour chart, you have a clear H12 breaker that gets MSB and we break out of this entire range. Even though we don't get like a perfect clean retest here, like you can long once we get that close there, right? You don't always need to long on a retest. You can long as soon as we close as the MSB, your stop goes there. You've caught that entire move, right? So like this price action [ __ ] it works on all of these companies. Um, uh, and it works on all of these different assets. So, order blocks, breakers, support and resistance, supply and demand, SFPs, you're going to see this stuff, as much as you might not want to believe it, work on all of these different asset classes, right? So, like here's an H4 order block, the down candle for the move up that caused a structure break above these highs. That's where price ended up bottoming, right? This is another order block right here. This is an order block right here. So, if this pulls back here, you could in theory long that. I'm not saying you should. I'm just saying like at the very least consider trying to expand your horizons and realize a lot of the stuff that I share with you in these videos. And when I'm doing those whiteboard series videos, I always try and give you an example from the S&P 500, from the NASDAQ, from Euro, from gold. Uh just so you can see that it works on other markets, too. I like trading crypto. Um, but at the end of the day as a trader, your job is to seek volatility. Where is volatility? Where can I chase that volatility right now? That volatility, those big expansive moves have not been in crypto. Doesn't mean they won't come back. Doesn't mean you should ignore it. It's just the reality.
Okay. So, overall, um, you know, I I feel good about things. Uh, I'm still holding some of my long. I think you've got a very nice, clear, um, invalidation here on Bitcoin. Don't really want to see us get back below last year's low. Any sort of pullback here on the higher time frame should hold if we're really bullish. Uh, but that being said, be aware. We are coming up into high time frame resistance. The high time frame is still in a downtrend. We absolutely could put in a lower high and there's some macro butt [ __ ] Um, what a bad term to use, but it is what it is. Some macro [ __ ] potentially about in the form of a black swan with maybe we get lockdowns with the hanta virus. Maybe this alien stuff is crazier than the government is letting on. I don't really know. Uh, but we will soon find out together and I'll update you guys along the way. So, I know this has been a very quick chart section, but I just want to give you guys my thoughts on Bitcoin. We've been cooking. Like if you've been taking the trades I've talked about in these videos, specifically on Bitcoin, I I got to go add it up. But in the Haven, I've posted less than 10 trades on Bitcoin this year, and I think I've gotten eight or nine of them correct. Uh, so we've been cooking. Uh, hopefully I know many of you guys are making money because you've been letting me know. Um, so that's awesome as well. So um, let's move on to some other stuff here real quick.
I just want to give a shout out to um one of the sponsors of these streams, NATO. Uh, so you can still be farming the NATO airdrop right now, guys. It's completely unfarmed. If you want to start trading some of these other markets, like the indices, like crude oil, you can get four times as many points using NATO uh to trade them. It's a DEX. It's like Hyperlid. No KYC required. It gets you points, which will allow you to participate in the Inc. airdrop. Same team that bought you brought you Kraken. So, shout out NATO. Shout out Kraken. I do all my charting in these videos generally on Kraken Pro as well. So, shout out to them. Thanks for supporting me, supporting the show. If you want a link to trade on NATO, click below this video. You can get my ref link. You can start trading on NATO as well and get after it. Okay. Um, obviously, please go and give a follow to the order book socials. We're almost at 3K on the order book Twitter. Pretty cool to have started this account just a couple of months ago in February here. This brand new show, brand new format. Um, and um, already almost 3,000 followers on this. We've amassed a bunch of views across the clips and the videos. So, I really appreciate you guys' support. I'm having a lot of fun doing this show. I've always loved streaming. Um, I'm one of the OG crypto streamers. Hard to believe it, but you can go back to 2018-19 on my YouTube and guess who was streaming? Your boy. Thread Guy wasn't even born. Okay, Thread Guy wasn't even born back in 2018-19. That's how old Trader Mine is. But we love Thread Guy. That's the homie obviously. Uh, but I've been doing this a long time. I took a bit of a break from streaming. Now I'm back. I'm really enjoying it again. So if you want to support me, go check out all the Orderbook social media channels. Check out the Instagram as well where we're posting a bunch of clips and stuff. Couple hundred followers on here. Uh, some of these clips are really awesome. Definitely worth watching. Uh, and uh, make sure you go to my website, tradermain.com. We have a full newsletter where we summarize these streams. We also are summarizing the whiteboard videos in those newsletters as well. It's all free. Free Telegram. You can follow along on my charts. Free Discord if you want to come hang out with the homies. And of course, please continue to go watch the whiteboard series. Uh, the series is doing really well. The first video, I think, has almost 15,000 views now. This next one, almost 9,000 views. Um, so I'm really happy. We're releasing these every Monday. I have over 30 of these videos in the hopper. I've already recorded like eight or nine of them every Monday for the next several weeks, right? Going into the fall, these are going to be coming out. So, if you're enjoying them, I know you guys are cuz the comments and the feedback has been really great. So, I really appreciate it. Make sure you go watch these videos of the whiteboard series.
Okay. Um, so let's get into some polyarket stuff. So, I'm a little bit annoyed here because my LeBron James Los Angeles Lakers, okay, he's 41. No Luca Dončić, no Austin Reeves. He takes down the Houston Rockets. And I don't want people rewriting history like, well, of course, he was going to beat them. The the media said that going into the series, the Lakers had a 17% chance of winning that series. Stephen A. Smith, all of the pundits, right? Oh, the he's too old. He's You can't expect this from him. Michael Jordan was washed at 38 and they're being those seasons don't count. But LeBron's seasons at 31 at 41 count when they were up 3-0 and then they lost the next two. Oh my god, he's going to blow the 3-0 lead. They're just haters, right? They don't appreciate greatness and they should. Um, but unfortunately, he's up against the reigning champs, the most unethical basketball team of all time. Um, the Oklahoma City Thunder. He still has no Luca Dončić. He's been the best player on the floor in games one and two. Uh, but it's hard to beat eight people because he's got to beat the five people on the floor plus the three referees. It's actually embarrassing to watch OKC play the foul baiting, the flopping. It's a [ __ ] joke. Uh, it's super whack. Uh, but I voted no on them winning because I thought the odds were pretty good. Like there's I think the San Antonio can win, right? I think a team out of the East can win. Uh, but there's a good chance they do win. I just thought 50/50 is when I made the bet was a little too high. Now they're up 2 already on the Lakers. They play again tonight. Uh, I hope Luca comes back. He was listed as questionable. If he comes back, maybe the Lakers have a chance, but if they go down 3-0, it's probably cooked. Um, but now their chances of winning are down. I was up on this for a bit when we won on Houston, but this was a punt. I do have yes on San Antonio. I'm in profit on this bet, so I could cash out, but if San Antonio gets out of this series, uh, I'll be in decent profit on this bet because then they'll be in the final four, right? So, uh, I still would like Oklahoma to lose. [ __ ] Oklahoma. I love Shai because he's Canadian, you know, representing for Canada. Uh, but I don't like the way that he's playing. Uh, and I don't like the way the rest of his team's playing. And, and this is not a shot just at him either. I didn't like when James Harden used to do this. He's not the first person to go in and every time he gets touched, he goes like this. Um, so anyways, I those are my bets. You know, Spurs are probably my only chance to get out of this thing alive. Uh, but we'll see.
Uh, FIFA World Cup winners. Not a lot of movement here right now. Um, I bet on Argentina because Messi has all but confirmed that he's playing, but not yet. And again, these lines, right, that's one of the best parts about Poly Market. These lines move as things happen, right? Maybe a player gets injured, right? Maybe something happens between now and the World Cup that causes these lines to move. And then once the World Cup starts, if there's an upset, some of these flyers that I took on some of these teams that had no chance, you know, I could there's an easy 2x here. They don't have to win the World Cup for me to make money. They might just need to win a game and all of a sudden the Netherlands goes from 3% to 3% to 10%. I've tripled my money. You know what I'm saying? So, I sprinkled some bets on a bunch of these different World Cup games. I believe the first games in a little over a month. So, I'm really looking forward to see how some of these play out. I can really take advantage of the fact that Poly Market is really like a market and these are more so not just sports bets. They're bets or they're trades really, uh, kind of options, uh, if you will. So, I've sprinkled a bunch of stuff there.
Um, will GameStop acquire eBay? Um, I actually have no idea whether or not GameStop's acquire eBay. All I know is that we had one of the all-time um clips um from the GameStop CEO where he went on like CNBC, I believe, and the guy's like, "So, you know, how's this deal work?" And he's like, "Half cash, half stock." And the guy's like, "Yeah, but like you don't have enough cash or enough stock." Uh, like rightly so. And he kind of just was like, "Half cash, half stock." I don't know if the guy was hung over, but it made for an all-time clip. Um, and there's some blowback now because he's been banned from eBay um after his uh stunt um because it was uh basically viewed as a potentially a marketing stunt and maybe he wasn't actually serious um about um buying the company, right? Um, and it was just to promote GameStop. I don't know. But all-time clip, half cash, half stock. Next time someone asks me how I'd like to pay for something, I'm just going to say half cash, half stock because it's so funny.
Um, hivirus here. So, will there be a pandemic? Um, right now this is still weighted pretty heavily on no. Um, but man, this is kind of scary. So, what would define a pandemic here? Uh, if the World Health Organization, everyone's favorite organization of course, explicitly characterizes hivirus um as a pandemic. So, pretty straightforward there. Uh, by the end of the year, by December 31st. So, if they come out and say yes, this is a pandemic like they did with COVID. Uh, I mean, listen, 10%. Like, this is one of those bets where it's like, like, let's say you bet yes, you know, a grand pays over an 11x and and and again, because this is polymarket, this can spike, right? So, this spiked up to 32% briefly, what happens if more of these people that were on that cruise come back and, you know, we get more and more confirmed cases? This is going to trend up. So this could not be a pandemic. You could still make money betting on the yes based on more news coming out about this. The market getting more scared that maybe this is going to become a pandemic. It's spreading. So I still need to do way more research on this and I plan on it. I need to go on Twitter, find the verology experts, you know, the biologists um that are living on Twitter because that's what biologists and verologists do all day. They just tweet. Uh, and I need to know from the source of truth, the fountain of truth. Uh, you know, what's going on with this thing exactly? How actually contagious is it? Is it realistic that this could become a pandemic similar to COVID? Uh, but again, because it's polymarket, if we get more cases, more people talking about it, this market could easily double or triple and never resolve as yes, and you could still make money. But if it does resolve in yes, it's like at what cost? You made money, but now the world's going into another lockdown. Maybe that lockdown is just in time for us to stay in our houses and play Grand Theft Auto 6 when that finally comes out. I don't know. But it's kind of like betting on the end of the world. Uh, not that the world might end, but like, you know, something very bad. And if we do get a pandemic, probably not so great for the coins and for stocks, etc. But this is another market that you're going to want to track. Relatively new, starting to get some volume. I'm over three and a half million already. I mean, do you bet on Yes. And just as this gets more, you know, maybe I just cheddar 500 here. Like maybe I'll cheddar 500. I'm traveling right now, so I'm going to have to throw on this bet later. But um, maybe you cheddar 500 bucks, you know, a thousand bucks here. And then as this gets more in the news cycle, who knows? Maybe this ends up resolving as a yes. We'll see. Uh, or maybe it just increases in likelihood and this this tracks up to 20% you've doubled your cash just like that. Um, so obviously I think some very big news here. Um, this is a market that I think was very much predominantly no in my mind and I think in a lot of people's mind um for a very long time.
So where can I get the uh chart here? Let's see. Okay, so this no one really thought Micro Strategy was going to sell any Bitcoin, I think, right? Like no one thought Micro Strategy was going to sell any Bitcoin. I didn't think Micro Strategy was going to sell any Bitcoin because I am a watcher of all of the AI slop that Michael Sailor puts out. So this market was, you know, you know, sub 20% forever, right? No way he's going to sell any Bitcoin by the end of this year. And then bang, dude. This market, this is what I mean. So he hasn't actually sold any Bitcoin. This market went from 11% to 82%. So an 8x, you could have 8xed your money on betting yes on this just seven, eight days ago. 8xed your money. And he hasn't actually sold any Bitcoin yet because he came out and said that they might sell some Bitcoin. Uh, I think it was to pay off some debt or to to service the dividends. I can't quite forget. The next tab will remind me. But this is what I love about Poly Market. This is what I mean. Like I think no one expected Michael Sailor to say yes, they were going to sell Bitcoin. And so all of these markets were absolutely floored. He sends out one tweet and all of a sudden these charts have gone parabolic. In a matter of a week, you have an 8x on the year out. You have a 6x on the June 30th resolution market. So, you can't do this anywhere else. This is what's so cool about Poly Market. Again, I'll keep saying that. Um, and I I I think I talked about this several streams ago being like, I think it's free money to bet on no and clearly it wasn't. I I didn't I didn't expect him to come out and tweet that because he's like, never sell your Bitcoin. Never sell Bitcoin. Never sell Bitcoin. That being said, I've watched this interview. Right, so he he proposes that they sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends. You buy Bitcoin with credit. So that's what he does. He raises money, right? Buys Bitcoin on debt. Bitcoin appreciates. You sell that Bitcoin at a higher price. You use that profit to pay dividends out. And then you buy more Bitcoin, right? And this is just this machine that he's built. And I think a lot of people are like, "This is a Ponzi scheme." Rightly so, because it sure sounds like one. Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it's probably a chicken. Um, and I was kind of in that camp. But after watching this interview um with Walton here, Jeff Walton and Coffeezilla, where I like Coffeezilla, I think he's done some great stuff, but he was absolutely out of his depth with Jeff here. >> Much better. So Jeff, uh, just so you guys know, is the, um, chief risk officer, okay? Um, at Strive um, and he basically sat down with Coffeezilla for an hour. I watched this entire hour and there's some highlights here that actually >> illuminated some things about what Michael Sailor is doing that I didn't really think about. But I thought a few of these clips that were really good, specifically this one around insurance companies, I'm going to play I'm going to play out here because when you kind of think about it, there's some similarities, right? Like an insurance company, is it a Ponzi scheme? And Coffeezilla is like, "No, they have business activities." And he says, "Yes, they have their business activity is taking in money in the form of selling premiums, but all of the claims that these insurance companies pay out. Almost 100% of those claims are paid out off of the balance sheet, which is premiums that they've collected. So, when you pay into an insurance company, they're just collecting that cash. Maybe they're investing that cash, doing certain things with it, but their goal is to never pay out that premium, right? That's the entire model, right? Your car insurance, your health insurance never wants to pay out that premium. That's why it's a nightmare when you ever have to try and claim anything. And so he's like, by your definition, they are a Ponzi scheme because they're bringing in cash by selling the premium and then they're using that cash and that premium that they've collected, that asset on their balance sheet to pay out the claims. So really, they're selling risk. And what he's effectively saying is that what Sailor is doing with Micro Strategy is the same thing >> or or payment. >> No, but people are paying for products. The >> look if an insurance if an insurance >> what's the problem? >> Look at an an apples to apples comparison is let's say an insurance company was offering like a yield based on something and then they're like what's the yield based on? Well, it's based on our balance sheet. Well, where's the balance sheet coming from? Well, we're selling this yield, right? So, like that is not the same as an insurance company, which is actually offering a product, which is let's say I want to go insure my car. I'm paying premiums. >> Equity, not a product. >> It's a stock. It's a perpetual preferred stock. >> It's a product. You're you're holding it. You're holding it for a reason. >> Well, you're I'm holding it because I I I think I'm going to get paid a dividend. That's not a product. I don't buy Nvidia. Is Nvidia stock a product? >> Yeah, absolutely. >> ABSOLUTELY. >> NO, NO. THEIR THEIR GPUS ARE THEIR PRODUCTS. THEY'RE NOT. >> But the stock is a product. The stock is a product. >> The the interview kind of went on like this for a while because he basically Coffeezilla was out of his depth here. And what he what he said that I think made a lot of sense actually was that the way that they've built it um this is Strive I guess not not necessarily um Micro Strategy but is that the balance sheet needs to go up about 5.5% annually to pay the dividends out forever. So if the money supply is growing at 6.7% annually, we're underwriting the next 8 to 10 years of Bitcoin going up 30 to 35% annual growth rate, which historically is actually quite conservative for Bitcoin. And I think Coffeezilla's biggest disagreement is that he does not believe that Bitcoin is going to be able to sustain this upward trajectory. And I think what Jeff says correctly as someone who believes in Bitcoin is that due to the scarcity and finite nature of Bitcoin and the fact that we are seeing um, you know, inflation devaluation of fiat currency a 35% annual growth rate on something like Bitcoin, you know, over the next 8 to 10 years is not that insane given what it's done. Um, I would say it's actually conservative. Now, where does Coffeezilla become correct, of course, is if Bitcoin doesn't maintain this growth trajectory. That's when this all crumbles. But there's clearly a um disagreement on um basically the understanding of the actual financial instrument, I think, from Coffeezilla where he's saying, "Listen, we're we're able to pay this dividend out because our balance sheet increases in value." I think the insurance market an insurance company analogy actually makes a lot of sense and lo and behold Micro Strategy needs to sell Bitcoin then to pay these dividends but that Bitcoin's appreciated. Now the issue here and this is something that I think Don Alt tweeted about uh that I think is is relevant here is that um while all of this might be uh true, right? Um, one of the biggest issues is that Michael Sailor's average price on Bitcoin is so [ __ ] dog [ __ ] Like, how do you buy Bitcoin for so long and your average price is literally like just above break even now? I think their average price is like 72, 73,000. Be a lot more confident if his average price was in like the 30s and 40s, but he just keeps buying. But the machine can keep turning so long as the number keeps going up. Uh this is an area that I'd marked out a while ago on strategy saying, hey, this is high time frame demand. This is a good area to look for a bounce if we're going to get one. And we are seeing a potential low here on Micro Strategy. Now, whether this is the low before new highs or this is just a low before lower high TBD, but to what I said earlier, if you're wondering if you know the lines and boxes that I've taught you how to draw over these years, it works on other assets. Go find the stream where I drew this out back in mid to late February, early March. We drew this zone out and Micro Strategies up, you know, I think what 100% almost from the low, 50%. 70 80% from the low. We drew this out on stream as a monthly order block. So very interesting to watch and again just what a amazing opportunity here if you want. I mean this was as low as 2.6% 1.8% and then it's now trading at 61. That's a 30x in a week on this market with volume. 24 million of volume. So that's like putting in a thousand bucks pays out over 30 G's if you said that yes, they're going to sell just a week ago to today. So cool. Uh except for the part where I didn't make any [ __ ] money on it.
Um, what else we got here? What will the S&P 500 hit by the end of June? Like I've told you guys, I don't know how much longer this goes on. And I think some of these longer-dated options like December, I would be more inclined to bet on lower prices for the S&P as opposed to higher prices. June 30th is like not even, you know, a little over a month and a half away. We're at 7,400. Like, it's crazy. So, how high do you think this is going to go? I don't I genuinely don't know. Like, I genuinely have no idea when this train stops. What causes it to stop um when it cools down. I told my brother that I thought, you know, the air was getting kind of thin up here. I peeled off a lot of risk into cash over the last many months. And all he does now is just send me charts that are just continuing to go vertical being like, "Dude, it's going up forever. You're wrong." And I'm like, "Maybe I am." Um, but I I find a hard time to view long-term value at these super elevated prices. Maybe I'm wrong and I'll have to buy back higher, but I made a bunch of money over the last handful of years. I'm happy to sit and wait and buy at areas that I'm interested in. I like being patient and buying where I want to. Uh, and realizing that sometimes I miss part of the move and I don't sell the exact top, but I I genuinely don't know where this ends. 80 8,000 is not that far away. I I I I wouldn't have said the S&P is going to go to 8,000 anytime soon. It's less than 10% away at this point. So, we'll have to see where this ends. Uh, but uh last but not least here, guys, I just want to talk about this alien stuff.
So, um, will the government confirm that aliens exist? So, they've come out and released a bunch of information on, uh, UFOs. So, a bunch of grainy videos and pictures about unidentified flying objects or unmanned, you know, aircrafts, whatever the UAP term is. >> Some of these it's like, I don't know what the [ __ ] this is, right? Like, what the [ __ ] are these things? I think the most interesting thing if you go back and watch Trump on Rogan, he's straight up says, this is like, you know, over a year and a half ago, two years ago now, because before he was elected, he straight up says, he's like, "Listen, I've talked to fighter pilots who are like, stand up, trustworthy dudes, and they said, Liz, we're flying. We saw some [ __ ] that we cannot explain. Aircrafts that were moving at speeds and in ways and directions, elevation changes, movement patterns that are outside of the realm of technology that at least America has. Whether or not other countries have some stuff, some of this stuff I'm like, is this not just like a drone? Like they kind of look and move like drones, but a lot of the videos are very grainy, you know, and okay, if they're releasing UFO stuff, what's the likelihood that they come out outright and just say, "Yeah, we got aliens as well." You know what I mean? So, by May 31st, they just released all the UFO stuff. Still, the yes market on aliens is like nothing. A thousand pays almost 30x. This is how much money you could have made, by the way, by betting that Michael Sailor wasn't gonna sell Bitcoin just like a week and a half ago and that's how much you would have made now in a thousand bucks. Sickening. Um, but like you'd think these things go hand in hand. They're part and parcel, right? Like there are UFOs. Here's a bunch of videos. So, does that not mean there's aliens? Just come out and say it. Uh, but if you're tracking this, I mean, there's literally a website now, war.gov/ /UFO and you can just go and look at all of this [ __ ] Like what the [ __ ] is this? This looks fake. You know what I'm saying? Like some of this stuff like I don't know what the [ __ ] what is this? Like what am I looking at here? Like some of this stuff is so grainy and it's like just shitty. But like it's the shape of the objects, the speed and pattern in which they move that seems to be like the weirdest parts of it. Like this one looks kind of like a weird star. Someone was saying, "Oh, this is like the uh what was it? Ethereal Eye or what's the guy's name?" Uh, oh, it's that movie with Denzel Washington. All Seeing Eye or whatever. And it's like maybe it's [ __ ] I don't know. But some of this stuff is crazy. Uh, newly released FBI files to describe allegedly 4-foot beings um in space suits near UFO UFOs. I mean, maybe that was just Ponzi trader walking around in a space suit because he's very short. I don't know. Kevin Hart may be out there as well. But yeah, Danny DeVito, I don't know. What do you guys think about this alien stuff? I love space. I love the idea of space. I find it hard to believe that there's not life out there. Um, but also there's kind of this counter-argument where space is so big and so vast that if there is life out there outside of here, outside of our our solar system, they and they could come here, right, in the form of a UFO. They would be so technologically advanced that them to us is like us to an ant. You know what I mean? Where it's like you're not looking in the ant hill. You don't even pay attention to them. You don't give a [ __ ] what's going on down there. If they have the ability to interplanetary, intergalactic travel. Well, we're still arguing about [ __ ] um, you know, we're not even we're not we don't have even one world peace yet. We're still arguing about where you live and your skin color and your religion and all other stupid [ __ ] It doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Um, we're still there, right? We're We're not even if they have the ability to come from another galaxy, another solar system, like what the [ __ ] would they care about? I don't know.
Anyways, uh, that's all I got, guys. Sorry it's a little janky on my laptop. I know it's not the best quality. The sizing is a little [ __ ] up, but want to get something out here for you guys. Love you as always. Make sure you check out tradermain.com uh for all of my stuff. Shout out to Poly Market as well for sponsoring these streams. Use my link below if you want to start gambling, speculating on some of the world ending [ __ ] that seems to be happening every single day. I'll talk to you guys soon. Peace out.