Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic (And What Comes Next) | Rational Root

This is not like just a simple, you know, midcycle correction anymore. This is a bare market that's going to take slightly longer. I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away. Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands. If you look at the 4-year cycle, which Bitcoin has been moving in, you know, we're moving into the bearish period. If you're wanting to get in into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued, but we could still get slightly lower. So, there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up many multiples once we consolidate long enough. Some people say the four-ear cycle is dead. I don't think that's the the proper way to phrase it. I think one should say the having impact is that, but not the four-ear cycle. Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels. That's why in the next couple of months, we will form a bottom. I don't know exactly how low we will go, but I think our realistic outlook that maybe is good to assume that that will happen. I think we're already at fairly cheap stats here. We're not going to reach the minus 70 80% drop from an all-time high. Why not? Because we actually we didn't have that parabolic move up. But there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. Bitcoin is the Trojan horse infiltrating the fiat system.

The rational root. The rational root. rational root just root maybe. Welcome. I'm stoked to have you on, man.

Thank you so much for inviting me on. Happy to be here.

I have a lot I want to cover with you. Uh I want to start out maybe well first perhaps it's worthwhile just uh just walking through uh this chart. But maybe before we do that because I know you've and thank you for doing this. You've prepared a number of charts specifically for this which I very much appreciate. Uh what is your just current vibe check on where we're at right now? There's we were talking about this just off camerara for a second. There's a lot of different uh different opinions about what Bitcoin is going to do next. Always right now there seems the vibe seem to have been weird. We had a I think for most people pretty disappointing uh last year and then these first couple months of 2026 up until you know a little war in Iran seemed to spike or spark off a little bit of a a rally. It seems like things have just been weird. People have been super bearish. Where are you at with this? What is your kind of personal vibe check on the situation?

Yeah, I would I would say that Bitcoin is in a bare market. Um so we had like a bullish trend and actually it's why I I put this chart first um to kind of explain okay where where where we currently at or how do I see uh the situation I mean we had so so the line that you see in this chart is the the bull the bullish trend um so when you have a bull market um there's this it's it's an exponential trend right like the the chart the price chart is shown here in log scale and so that's why that bull trend looks like a strain like a linear line but It's actually uh it's a curved line if you would look at it in in linear uh time. And um and so when you have a bull market um so we we actually had we came out of a three-year uh bull market. You have this three-year uh exponential trend and an exponential trend is always unsustainable, right? At some point an exponential trend will end. And so the the bullish trend that you see here is actually based on a a regression from that price data of the bull market. And then I drew like a channel and I drew the bottom of the channel. That is that bullish trend that you see in the chart. And and so after soon after making the all-time high um we you know we fell below that that channel that the bottom of that channel below that bull bullish trend line that you see in the chart and and so that was for me a warning signal like okay and and this doesn't necessarily mean that it's the that it's the end of the bull market. Uh you know in 2021 we had like a midcycle dip. We also were in an an unsustainable trend in in the 2021 bull market and we still managed to make a new alltime high after uh you know in November that year and and so um uh so for me it was also a bit like okay is this going to be like a midcycle dip or are we going to move in a bare market but at least what was clear is like okay we're not going to rise at the same trend that we were you know before we we fell down that that bullish trend and so so that was was going to go on and and so but as as soon you know, then we fell below the the $2 trillion market cap or instead of like a multi-t trillion dollar Bitcoin, we became like again in the single digits, you know, a trillion dollar market cap. And that that actually coincides with the 100k psychological level, which has been a very psychological level for Bitcoiners uh to take profit as well. And so so um of course like all those are all confirmations like okay this is going to take a bit longer you know this correction and then um you know we fell below the short-term mult basis obviously uh and once we had that that rebound to the shortterm cost base that was actually around uh 97k and we nearly touched 100k there actually told my followers okay this is maybe a good time to take profit because this correction might take long might might going to take longer you know it could take a couple months because timewise if you look at the four-year cycle which Bitcoin has been moving in um you know we're moving into the bearish period of and so even though we didn't have that parabolic move up and we can get a bit to that later why maybe you know what the reasons are why we didn't but um but we didn't have that parabolic uh move like which we usually tend to see at the end of a cycle but then we like timewise we were actually ready to move into the bare phase and so so uh then of First, we had this February 5 drop and that was like clearly okay. This this bare market is going to take uh a little longer. Uh and and this this is not like just a simple uh you know midcycle correction anymore. Uh this is a bare market that's going to take slightly longer. And so so we currently had that 50% drop off the alltime high. And so um uh now I don't like there are some differences between this cycle and the previous cycle. I think um we're not going to reach like you know the minus 70 80% drop from an all-time high. Why not? Because we actually we didn't have that parabolic move up and so we had a much more distributed top and so also it's it's uh much less likely to get these really high percentage term draw downs. Uh I think 50% is already like a severe draw down. So we're already at pre-undervalued levels. But I still think there's also room to to especially time-wise, but also price-wise to to maybe potentially have another leg down before we really start moving up.

Well, let me ask you too. I mean, what does another leg down look like? Because I was listening to your conversation. You you were on Danny Null's uh show, formerly Peter McCormack show of what Bitcoin did. I think it was November of 25 and Bitcoin was hovering like right around 100K at that point. and you called out, you were like, "Look, we may go lower. We may go 50% lower. I don't think we go much lower than that." Now, we basically done almost exactly what you just said there could happen. Uh we we got down, I think what the low was like I don't know if I don't know if we fully broke 60, but we were, you know, right around the the lowest 60s there.

I mean, so do you think is this like the 58k gang prophecy that is going to be coming back? Is that where we're going to hit? I've seen also people I mean every every analyst loves drawing you know lines on charts and a lot of them are like see this is why Bitcoin's going to 40k 30k 20k 10k zero negative whatever you know you see so much noise out there so what's kind of like the signal for you here?

So first in the in the November uh November 10 we had like this huge actually the biggest uh liquidations uh happening in in in the industry it was mainly crypto but also bitcoin was the fact that that was that that first drop actually which which brought below below that bullish trend and below the 100k level. Uh that so that was in in my opinion the first leg down and then we had like a rejection of the short and boulder cost basis and the February 5th drop was really like that second leg down. Uh now we now have some consolidation. We're now in that se we're actually in the low 70 range. I think we can stay between 70 80 for some time. Uh but potentially indeed we might go to those upper 50s. Uh the 58 g gang I think is uh is a a level that's actually highly likely to reach uh within the next couple months. But there are also some reasons why we don't have to get there. And it it's main it's mainly because um you know and I think um I speak for you as well here. Most of us Bitcoin Bitcoiners that have been a long time in this market and understand the value proposition of Bitcoin already think Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels. Um, and I think pretty much like the majority of us would agree on that. And so that that also means that we are less tempted to sell at these levels. And so we've had a lot of sell pressure around that 100k level, but I think moving forward we're going to see less sell pressure uh you know at these the lower we go. And so and and the same at the same time um you know passive flows or actually like institutional gradual adoption will continue. Um, now not not at the same level uh as as during the bull market but uh but I do think that's why in the next couple of month we will form a bottom and so I I don't know exactly how low we will go but I think the upper 50s are a realistic outlook that maybe is good to assume that that will happen and then if we don't get there uh you know that is fine. Uh so so also I I would recommend like I think we're already at at at fairly cheap sats here and so um you know it's very hard to time the bottom. Um I mean we can do this with the four-year cycle but there are some divergences from the four-year cycle and we can get into some of those details in a bit. Um, but um it's very hard to time the exact bottom and the exact price, right? And so it's much more uh practical to just average in during these next couple of months and by you know, if we get another leg down that is actually a tremendous opportunity for for the time to come because what is happening on the other side is like we really have um a measurable institutional adoption and that continues. I mean news comes out every week. we saw uh now again uh was Kraken became a bank and so even these the industry is kind of converging with the fiat system right Kraken is becoming a bank uh on the other hand I think Morgan Stanley is is starting an ETF that was news of just like the last two days or so and so so we see that institutions are entering the space um we I actually measure that by you know observing 13 app filings and we can get I have actually a chart on that maybe I'll open that one so so this is the the the chart on uh the total ETF holdings and what I try to do is here is uh like see the share of institutional holdings uh from the total ETF holdings and this is a very conservative estimate because this is actually only institutions that are required to report and those institutions need to have like they need to be 100 have portfolios of 100 million plus and so so there's probably a lot of a lot more smaller institutions that are not required to report that are not reflected in this data. So this is a very conservative estimate of institutional holdings but we see a clear uptrend over the the past years and obviously you know the price has been a little disappointing and we you know we we're kind of flat you know we uh we're down one percentage point of of total holdings uh but but I would you know that that is or it's actually even less less than a percentage point uh so so uh but but what we can see is actually institutions are here um they're getting their feet wet in this cycle I mean we literally had this cycle was actually the gateway like ETFs which uh opened for institutions to come into the space and we have seen that happening and we will continue to see that happening and especially once we move through this bond formation and once we get like into new bull market um you know also some of those institutions are starting to feel more of those gains and they're going to be happier to to to uh you know allocate more a bigger percentage of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

One of the interesting things for me and River put out a great chart on this showing basically the the change from in holding patterns between different entities essentially showing look individuals in 2025 decreased their holdings. And who did that get spped up by? Well, it got spped up by the institutions. And I'm curious just as you look at as you look at the current price action obviously from my like I haven't obviously don't look into this as deeply as you do that's why I have you here to to educate me but I look at a lot of the OG selling that we know has happened. You had that single galaxy whale who got rid of what 80,000 Bitcoin like that's one guy one guy getting rid of 80,000. You know there's a bunch of other whales that have been selling. I had Lyn Alden on recently. She pointed out like, "Look, Walker, whales sell every cycle, right? But for I think for a lot of whales this cycle, it's like 100K was very much like a magic number. They've been holding since it was a few dollars or maybe a few cents or a few hundred dollars or even a couple thousand. They've got sitting on massive massive gains. Okay, they're they're rotating out a little bit, but is is that what you think has been the primary driver behind the current kind of just let's say chop solidation lower, the crab market lower, or is this something more cyclical like this is just what's bound to happen every cycle if cycles exist? We can kind of get into that later a little bit too, but what's what's your read on that in terms of kind of the primary driver for what we're seeing now?

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Yeah. So, I think the the primary reason why we had this such a distributed uh cycle in general, so I do believe cycles are happening, by the way, and I do think we're in a bearish phase currently. Um and I think uh the 100k was a very psychological level and we see actually that we can actually confirm that by unchained data. There was an equal amount of um selling of coins even though we only reached like much lower prices like barely above 100k but we still had equal distribution to previous cycle in terms of actual BTC. And so why is that the case? I mean and and and a factor actually to um diminishing returns in general each cycle have been the fact that we have compounded sell pressure from each class of Bitcoin right so so I I don't know when you got exactly in but but for you know the we have the class of 13 the class of 17 the class of 21 and so all these for me

Okay yeah see so so so we have all all these classes they came in at different price levels, but even for the class of 20 or class 21, you know, you're looking at a 10x gain at, you know, at for for the 100k price level. And so, uh, but for a class earlier, that was like a a 100x gain and for a class before that was a thousandx gain. And we're also getting to liquidity level, Bitcoin is liquid enough to actually sell some of those early coins. Like before, previously in previous cycles, that wasn't really possible. And so so I think this 100k psychological level much like the 10k psychological level it also took a long time. We have hovered a long time around the 10k level um you know had a bearish phase below it and then got back above it again hovered around it for a long time before we were actually able to move out of that and I think that is also happening with the 100k psychological level and so yeah I've I've been referring a a lot of times to this IPO moment. Uh I think that is exactly what has happened this cycle. So in a way um uh there there are actually some some some really shifts this cycle in which the cycle differs to previous cycle. First of all this was actually the cycle with the least amount of retail inflow so far. Um uh and and and so but we've moved to institutional inflow which is exactly what we want to see if we want Bitcoin to succeed by the way. And so I also think it's inevitable. I mean some people view like okay Bitcoin is being absorbed by the fiat system. I think that's not happening at all. You know, Bitcoin is the Trojan horse like infiltrating the fiat system and like how were we supposed to get to, you know, uh world like full adoption of Bitcoin without institutions having getting involved? I mean, it's it's that is impossible. I think so I what I think that happened basically is that most of retail that wanted to get into Bitcoin had 10 years to do so and we are here you know and and we're believing it you know and and so um and and to the level now that we convinced institutions that it's here to stay and they're investing in it and but so so I also think in moving into the next cycles we're I mean there's still going to be some new people that you know we're missing here and there but in general I think uh you you know probably some of the the genzers that that are coming of age like to actually think about uh start thinking maybe potentially about retirement or a pension or something like they might get involved they suddenly get it but that is like a relatively small amount I think you know like so I think what we're going to see is in indeed like we're going to see a continuation of stronger institutional adoption uh and at the same time we're we're we're yeah we're currently at this IPO moment where long-term holders are still distributing some of their coins and making their lives better. But at some point, we're going to reach that level where most of us sold like the majority of coins we would want to sell. You know, like I think there's a limit for every holder. Like we want to improve our lives and possibly, you know, uh you know, distribute some of our coins to to have this improvement to our lives, but at at some point it stops, you know, then then we're like the lives are improved. Uh you know, we're going to sit on the rest. And so so I think we're moving through that phase and I I think that what we're going to see over the next months is that we're going to form this bottom. Uh there's going to be less selling from long-term holders because especially it's not going to be as interesting to sell at these lower prices. They're like long-term holders are going to sell the least possible, but possibly some are obliged to sell for whatever reason. So there will be still some selling, but but I don't think it will be as much as as the levels that we've seen around that 100k price level. But once we get again back above that 100k price level, there might be some more distribution and that will still take some time. But we will get out of that and then we're up for like really a proper next bull market.

Want to get into a couple points there, but first I I do want to ask, you know, you mentioned and I think this is something that a lot of folks have sensed is that the retail demand, you know, retail demand was really not here this last cycle. There just wasn't the same level of hype just generally. That being said, you also had the ETFs during this cycle. So, I mean, just I'm curious your thoughts. Was a lot of the quote retail demand that you'd usually see in just spot Bitcoin actually just funneled through the ETFs, but wouldn't that or was it still even with the ETFs still less retail demand than you would expect?

Yeah. So, um even with the ETFs, I think it was less retail than we would expect. Um uh uh I still think there was a significant amount of retail but but there was definitely more institutional interest in Bitcoin this cycle. And one important thing to understand is that retail you know they in general in previous cycles indeed they would buy through exchanges and that would set the spot price. It would inflate it would more heavily impact the spot price. But the retail that flu uh that that came in in into the space through ETFs um and I mean this week there was there was actually some talk about manipulation you know price suppression of Bitcoin and because we cannot believe we're at these minus 50% from alltime high levels you know we all think like as maximalists like okay Bitcoin is severely undervalued at these levels Bitcoin should not be like it should be way above 100 like in our minds Bitcoin is is is worth 200k or or or above you know and So, so um but but that is not the general mindset of of people like coming that invest in stocks, you know, who now maybe for a first time allocated some of their money through these ETFs to Bitcoin as well. And and so I think those are definitely people with less conviction than than we are. But be ca because they came in through this gateway. Um there is in a way a suppression of price because um ETFs they sometimes do in in kind creation which is called and and so they they they buy Bitcoin OTC and so that less impacts uh the spot price of Bitcoin and so so we have a uh you know ETFs like some of these authorized partners uh for for ETFs they they try to get their Bitcoin obviously the the the cheapest or like most the best way possible for them to have the most profit as well. And so uh so they look at OTC markets and try to get these coins and influence the price the least possible. And so so in that sense like the rumors about price suppression are not entirely incorrect. Uh I think one you know and it's not that OTC doesn't have an effect on uh on on Bitcoin because there's only so much OTC and some OTC that desk will hatch well at exchanges with spot spot bitcoin and so so there's some of these dynamics going on but but I do think um that like you know if you buy OTC you're actually taking sell pressure or buy pressure away from the spot market and it's more indirect and so so in a way it's it's a bit suppressing price and and that I that's why also I think we've had such more distributed market in general and because you know ETFs were one of the primary inflows of of uh demand for Bitcoin this cycle um and so so less retail um you know less retail purchases through spot exchanges and even some of the retail that that now came in came through ETFs and institutional adoption came in through ETFs or or or treasury companies which many times works with these OTC desks and and so there was like less impact on the actual price of Bitcoin. So I think if all of that would have gotten into the spot market you would you would probably have like a much more volatile Bitcoin price. Now in the long term I think you know Bitcoin still will go where it goes. uh you know also OTC I mean if someone buys OTC some and someone sells OTC you know that doesn't directly affect the Bitcoin price but still you know if if that OTC purchase wouldn't be there or that transfer I should say there's always a buyer and a seller uh it would have gone through uh you know the spot market it would have had a more direct impact but there still would have been an equal amount of sell pressure and and buy pressure so so I think uh so I I think it's like a temporary suppression of price a bit. Uh and so in a way like some of those like Jane Street like algorithms that I I I mean there's some some suppression going on with ETFs, but those are the general like mechanics behind ETFs. You know, they they they have these structures and and OTC markets were there long before ETFs even were involved in the space. uh in you know there's many OGs that sell bit try buy and sell Bitcoin through OTC and and so uh you know you could blame the same on those OGs for not affecting the spot price as much right uh I think that that is what a free market does now fair enough and let me ask you too just on the cycle side of things you you said you know you still think that the the four-year cycles are there how much of this though in terms of the four-ear cycles ends up just lining up with the business cycle with the overall liquidity cycle from a monetary sense. How how much you know I mean it also lines up with like elections uh to to a certain extent too. I mean how much of it do you think in terms of the four-year cycles is actually like uh h having driven from a bitcoin perspective versus yeah it's like does the having have a diminishing effect obviously as the you know the as as it has the block reward has and how much of it is or always was influenced by more of the like external business cycle side of things. I' I'd love your take on that.

Yeah. So, I actually have a chart on uh midterm elections, the effect on that and where we actually look at the business cycle um and how that moves in tandem with with the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. And so, there is the, you know, some people say the four-year cycle is dead, you know, like but what I actually think like I I don't think that's the the proper way to phrase it. I think one should say the having impact is that uh but not the four-year cycle. I mean, we're still well within the bounds of the four-year cycle currently. Now, that doesn't mean that we couldn't move out of it in the next couple of years. Uh, you know, I think there's actually fair reason to assume we we possibly could. Um, but currently we're not. And uh and so so um you know some for some mystical reason um you know Satoshi chose the the 4-year period for for you know the having uh which uh reduces the the the subsidy basically for for Bitcoin to uh to to have Bitcoin proper properly flourish. I mean that's what the subsidy actually is. They're having a subsidy for miners to to start mining. And so Bitcoin eventually will have to do without subsidy you know should be able to work on its own without any subsidy from the network and and and so um you know instead of like a gradual decrease in that subsidy Satoshi chose this 4-year uh period you know and and have it with with like this shock. Now in the beginning that shock was of course very severe and we had a lot of early investors in there. Um but coincidentally like the the the business cycle was always also in a 4-year period and so um I think liquidity um has always affected Bitcoin much and of course over time um you know we we've got we we've gone from like the early OG or or cyber funk movement uh we've moved to now like like people with a stock portfolio investing in Bitcoin. right, which is a it's a whole uh different cohort that that is now currently investing. But but all are driven by actually uh like liquidity, you know, like also the the early cipher punks probably were more incentivized to spend some of their money and put it in Bitcoin in the early phases when like when the market was doing well, you know, when they had a bit of extra money and and to do these things and so so the business cycle always had a huge effect in my opinion on Bitcoin and that has moved in tandem with the the having impact. And previously the having impact had a much bigger impact on Bitcoin that it currently has. Uh and and so we also saw a lot of higher gains in those early cycles. Uh and currently not as much. You know the having didn't have as much impact. The the ETF approval actually had more impact. We made an all-time high before the having because of ETFs not because of the having. And so so u so that shows how we've kind of moved from like where before we had much more having impact to now like very little having impact to now now like uh some some like a gateway like ETFs having more impact. But we still have moved within that four-year business cycle but the business cycle wasn't always four years. So of course like why why do business cycles move in four years? And that has to again probably do with presidential elections uh you know that move on a four-year basis and so they stimulate the economy and then uh you know in the midterms usually uh it's like a bit of a bearish phase for uh stocks in general risk on assets and and that's what we currently uh well currently there's a bit of divergence going on and I think that has to do with kind of an after effect of covid so we came out of covid with a lot of money printing and then you know we had a bit of a difficult market and So people were struggling and businesses were struggling to get like to to deal with all this inflation and and so we we kind of like you know so in in this chart um we I actually showed so the the midterm cycle so you see uh all all the midterms and we see how how Bitcoin generally you know made like a blow around that midterm uh and and current this is uh in in in orange we actually look at the yearly RSI for Bitcoin in light blue we look at the yearly RSI for the S&P P500 which a risk on assets which Bitcoin has high correlation with and then in in dark blue we look at the ISM um at the at the PMI the business cycle um and the business cycle index now moved above 50 which is actually means that we're getting out of like a bearish phase but where Bitcoin actually just printed it the low in the RSI comparable to like previous bare markets and so and we're getting close to that midterm that's this year but we also see that the the S&P kind of rolling over and so I so it's very hard to to to know how the market's going to uh move forward. Is the S&P going to crash before the midterm still? You know, Trump obviously doesn't want to. He's doing everything he can to influence uh you know to keep this from happening. I think pro possibly Iran is one of those plays on that as well. Like if he can fix that war and have Iran cooperate before the midterms uh you know it could boost the economy. um many people of Iran are actually uh you know getting into stable coins and bitcoin for that matter but but stable coins which is very important for the US because that's uh actually uh they they purchase uh uh you know like tedar and so for they they purchase government bonds and so that that is good for for him. Uh so so uh we still get a a change of course of the the Federal Reserve uh chair and uh which you know there's going to be money printing coming before the the uh the midterm election but but nonetheless like historically the midterm election were a fairly bearish phase for for riskon markets. But but as I said like that was not always the case like before Bitcoin uh actually before the the the 2008 financial crash we had an 8-year cycle. And so that is also possible. And and so I'm not ruling out that potentially we could move into an 8-year cycle this time or or or at least an extended cycle. It's possible. But with Bitcoin, that currently seems not happening like and and I don't know if Bitcoin is the early indicator if it's the can canary in the coal mine or or if uh uh you know because we have this really low uh arzy print now and so which looked like a bottom but we could hang around this low area for a couple of months and possibly for the next 6 months before we start moving out of that bearish phase and so it will be definitely interesting to see but those are some of the dynamics behind it and and so I think like the business cycle definitely had an impact on on Bitcoin always like in terms of liquidity like optimal liquidity conditions obviously in you know incentivizes investors to invest in in risk assets and uh uh but at the same time we had more having impact in the early days and and that is gone. So uh so so I I think Bitcoin will become possibly more business cycle dependent moving forward as the having kind of fades away.

I appreciate the the rundown on that. And it kind of blows your mind a little bit that like some of the things with Satoshi, you wonder was this like was this planned or was this just coincidence and he just released it when it was ready and it just so happened that it lined up with these you know there's so many different things like that. But but I'm curious too cuz you know you mentioned okay maybe we're we're getting sort of near to forming a bottom here. Okay, could we go lower? Will 58k gang be vindicated? Will it go just to 59 and not 58 just to leave them blue balled? Who knows? But what I'm curious of is just comparing this to prior cycles, comparing where we are now, the indicators that you're looking at, because I know you look at a lot. If we compare what we're seeing right now with what we've seen in prior cycles, does this look like a bottom from that perspective or does the data say something different?

Yeah. So, so we had like a fairly heavy capital event with this February 5 drop, but it wasn't of the same size as we typically see in in a real bottom in the real bottom of the actual previous cycles. And so for me, what this mostly looked like was uh for example, compare an event comparable to the June 2022 low crash that we had um also time- wise. And so here we can in in this chart actually I looked at the realized price which is the average purchase price of all bitcoin and I look at the short-term holder floor which is actually a level based on um on the short-term holder cost basis. Uh it's basically like how much uh loss like what is the maximum loss short-term holders can sustain uh practically speaking um that is the short-term holder floor level. And so if we look at those levels uh we look at them in the chart we actually see that we had a cross uh of the of shortterm molder floor moving below the realized price. Um uh and that that happened in June of 2022. Uh and that also happened now on the February 5 uh 5th crash. And so so for me it looks like we're very much in this position. Now, I don't know how low, as I said, like I think there's room for another lag lower. And in a way, timewise is probably more important than price-wise. I think like on a pricebased level, we we we are fairly undervalued levels. I mean, we could have this another leg down. You you said high uh 50s. Uh you know, we we might it might also be low 50s. You know, who knows what the spike will be. You know, it it's usually pretty bad. And uh but but timewise we actually still have a couple of months. And so so timewise uh I think there's still room to uh to have this sideways chop potentially, you know, demotivating the holders in the market um because Bitcoin is basically not moving anywhere and and and so and so people get a bit depressed about the price action and and and before we really sat in the low I think the bottom uh usually bottom formation takes time as well. there's always this time factor to it. Um, and uh, you know, it's not not for for the same reason we had a three-year bull market. Why has it always been like more or less a three-year bull market for for the same reason? It it's like the amount of time people can sustain before uh, you know, this this exponential uh, rise in price becomes unsustainable and and so now we're moving into this bearish phase and that yeah, you know, historically tends to take, you know, slightly less than a year, but more or less a year. and we're a couple of months into it. We still have probably, you know, six more months to go to like uh form a proper bottom.

So, are you of the opinion that like we won't be seeing a new all-time high this year? I I'm not going to hold you to it, but like just broadly, I'm kind of curious like you're saying if this plays out as it has in the past, if this time is not different, history is rhyming, you know, with itself, we won't see a new all-time high this year.

That is indeed very uh likely. Uh I think um uh and and I I hope to be proven wrong by the way. Like we could we could be in a situation of the 21 2019 for example where we actually you know uh hit uh 10k and then we had like this mini bear you know like before the 2020 before the covid crash we had this mini bear. Um and and you know this time might also be slower but I I have to assume like the probability is higher that we still have a couple more months of price action because I I do think the the bull market the rush that we had in the bull market is is kind of gone like hype is elsewhere basically hype is in AI and is in gold but it's not in Bitcoin and so I think yeah Bitcoin needs some time to recover form a bottom uh you know slowly start to move up We still have some. So, so the way to be proven wrong, by the way, so I'm not saying it's impossible to have a new alltime high this year. I think it's just unlikely to assume that it will. Um, and before we do, we actually have to uh like we have some real resistance levels to recover, which is that psychological level of 100k. Like we first have to move back above the short and holder cost basis again to to move into bearish stories. So, so if that happens, I mean, I'm I'm all for it. Um, but I still think there's a lot of resistance at that 100k level and uh and before. So I think like timewise uh it's it's unlikely for that to happen but not impossible.

Well, the interesting thing is too that and you called this out. Okay. Uh maybe we're not as deep as prior bears have gone, right? But our the bull didn't go as high as prior bulls have gone either. Like I think for a lot of people it felt perhaps, you know, disappointing. Then again, we did go from 16K to 126K in a couple of years. So, like there were still moves. It just it just felt kind of weird. And maybe CO threw a strange wrench in all of these gears. But I'm curious too, like on the subject of diminishing returns for Bitcoin. I think one of the big arguments that's been made of late given the price action in gold and silver and gold which is obviously a much larger market cap. at I think what like it's a 33 trillion 34 something something like that. Um [clears throat] excuse me but you saw these massive moves in gold you saw massive moves in in silver too which had a comparable market cap to Bitcoin blew through that and now you know has come back down quite a bit. Do you do you abide by the diminishing returns side of Bitcoin uh like in terms of the price action in fiat or you know I mean is it like is it a relative thing where it's like yeah okay returns aren't going to be as high as they were in from you know uh 20 you know like just after you know the first few years of its launch of course they're not going to be as high as that but that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't still do like many multiples in a year where do you sit on that?

Yeah, so I think what we have seen is that like Bitcoin is still a teenager. Um, basically 90% of the supply has been mined in these past 17 years. And so they're mostly in the hands of OGs and and like really early holders of Bitcoin. And so we're now in this distribution phase. So there is there's not much new supply coming into the market, but a lot of old supply is being sold. And so there's still a lot of sell pressure. uh and and so I think that's why again that IPO um uh analogy is such a great way to look at it. I think we're in this phase where we need uh to move through this distribution where like that supply gets into

stronger hands again in institutional hands this time. Um, and and and then there's broom because I mean, Bitcoin's invention is digital scarcity, right? Um, now there is some paper Bitcoin like expansion on because we have the fiat system involved. That is true. You know, you can, uh, there's futures and you can actually have a dollar-based contract without touching Bitcoin, and that takes again, a bit of like, you know, pressure from the spot price away. Um, but I, I, I still think like in the longer run that, uh, you know, Bitcoin, because Bitcoin has an instant settlement, um, I think, you know, there's always someone naked in in that position, you know, and and so, so, uh, when things get tight, like you, you want to have, you want to have real Bitcoin. And so, so, uh, I think, um, uh, I think it's not as much of a problem that people perhaps think that it is currently because there are some people out there that really think like, okay, Bitcoin is being absorbed by the same plays in the fiat system. But, but I think that is natural. I still think Bitcoin is working as the Trojan horse. Uh, because I, I think what we're going to see is that like all these technological capabilities that Bitcoin has, like multi-sig setups, and they're all also going to be installed in institutional players at some point. It's just early on. Institutions are just getting their feet wet. Just as a newbie bought their first Bitcoin on an exchange and leaves it on an exchange, we now have institutions getting into the game buying an ETF and leaving it in an ETF, like with a custodian, just because it's the easy first step. But once Bitcoin gets more mature, and also these multi-signature setups get more mature, and also when it becomes a bigger part of of a portfolio, when does a newbie change to a hardware wallet? When, you know, the value suddenly, uh, you know, you know, becomes of of a sufficient size for it to do so. I think with the ETFs and with institutions, uh, that, that's going to be a similar thing. Once, you know, Bitcoin becomes a substantial part of the portfolio, they're probably going to think about better setups to protect their Bitcoin and or spread the risk. And and so, so I think that's the natural process.

So, so I think diminishing returns have happened because, you know, we had a lot of supply in the early days of Bitcoin. Um, we have, uh, that is all in the hands of basically retail and OGs that that are currently selling some of that because they were right. They, they had, they made the right bet. Bitcoin is succeeding. And so now we have a bit of that, that sell pressure. Um, we have gradual institutional adoption at this point, but that will continue to increase. And so I think we will at some point, there's definitely going to be room for Bitcoin to to move in multiples again. Um, and we saw actually that happening now in gold, and in gold, it took 50 years. It took since like gold was suppressed since the beginning of the the fiat system, and now is actually moving out of that to a more natural price level, uh, I would argue. And and and so I think market size, um, it does have an impact because at this point, as I said, there's less retail involved in Bitcoin, or less new retail, uh, in flowing into Bitcoin. And so there is, uh, and also retail at these price levels has even, uh, less impact. Um, and institutions are actually just gradually adopting it. And so it's no surprise that we have like this, this, uh, you know, very distributed price action going on. But I think at some point, uh, you know, Bitcoin is again in strong enough hands, we'll form a new bottom, and there's definitely going to be room for upside again. And it can go fast. It's slowly then suddenly, like we saw with with gold. And that's a great example, actually.

Well, and and let me just like dig into that a little bit deeper here, okay? We, we've established like gold moved many, many multiples of Bitcoin's market cap, right? Like very, very quickly. Bitcoin hasn't seen a real like parabolic move in terms of just the violence that it it used to have. It hasn't had that like face-melting, just, you know, ripping off your face and leaving on the ground. Hasn't had one. Feels like it hasn't had one of those moments in a while. Does that mean that when it does, and if that coincides with strong retail demand coming back, and it coincides with, I don't know, more wars and everything else, and people looking like actually taking that flight to safety, which Bitcoin truly does represent for those who grok it. Does that mean that it still has the potential for some of those really kind of violent, mind-bending, face-melting moves? And I mean, what do you think it takes to bring the retail back in? Because like this has been kind of seems like the cycle of institutions, right? That that that's where the coins have been flowing to from. It's they've been flowing from OGs primarily to institutions. Do you think we see that shift a little bit, and we start to at least see, okay, maybe institutions are still accumulating, but now retail is as well. Maybe the OGs start accumulating again because they, that's the thing, they, you know, they sell, they sell high, and they buy low, right? Because they can move markets when you have tens of thousands or more coins, like you can actually make a dent in that. What, what's your read on it?

>> Yeah, so institutions of often obviously also represent retail, right? Like we see that in in treasury companies, like a lot of retails are also investing into treasury companies because they think there's more upside potential than just buying Bitcoin. And so, so and then and then that Bitcoin actually get purchased on a more gradual pace by the treasury companies. Um, so, so institutions often represent retail. And and so I think moving forward, you know, I don't, I don't, I don't claim to know what's going to happen, but I think there's definitely the potential for Bitcoin to move up many multiples, um, once we consolidate long enough. And I think hype, hype needs time to build up. And I think a lot of mind share has been like taken away by AI and and by actually gold by surprise. And so a lot of people that were chasing hype were not in Bitcoin this time, or were have left Bitcoin this time. But, but at some point, you know, Bitcoin is the perfect, the perfect product in a way to attract hype again at some point in the future. Even, even if all, like just because it's like global, it's, uh, it's internet native, it, it actually has all the traits you would want for something to to hype up. Uh, and so even if the, if the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin would be bad, it would still attract hype in my opinion, but because it actually has real fundamentals, it's even more so. So I think that that is just, it needs time. So I think we need at least a couple of months now to have a proper for bottom formation. Then we'll start kind of like gradually moving up that 100k level, and at some point, like, okay, all the OGs that wanted to sell around that 100k level are are going to be gone, and then, you know, Bitcoin can move up very fast. It, it's slowly and suddenly, we've seen that example with gold. Uh, in gold, it took 50 years. I, an IPO phase of often takes a couple of years. Uh, so, so, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a bit of like this choppy price action for quite some time. I, I think that that is not, uh, that that wouldn't be that strange at all. But I think Bitcoin can move fast. Uh, so, so, uh, you know, it's slowly, suddenly it will happen for Bitcoin.

>> I like it. You know, somebody asked, uh, on social media when I put out that I was going to be talking with you. They, they asked a good question, which is, what would a broken spiral look like in observable terms? They said, as it, uh, is it peaks and troughs happening at totally different angles than prior cycles, amplitude drawdowns and returns collapsing, or cycle becoming multi-peak and stretched out? And which of those failure modes do, which of those failure modes do you think is the most likely in the next kind of, uh, the next regime? Is what they said, but I think they mean like in this next cycle? Is that something you can address a little bit? Like, what, what would cause these these beautiful, you know, cycles that you have to potentially break down?

>> Yeah. So, I, I, I mean, this the spiral chart is actually probably the most beautiful way to illustrate the four-year cycle within Bitcoin, right? So, so what, when would that break? That the lines crossing would kind of like screw up the beauty of that illustration. So, I agree there, you know, but, um, but I think that's actually bound to happen at some point, you know. So, I'm, I'm, I, I don't think that's necessarily a fail that Bitcoin is a failure because the, the, the illustration of the four-year cycle starts to break. That, what that actually shows is that that we're moving away from the four-year cycle. Um, you know, like, uh, and, and we saw that already with like some precursors to that. Like, for example, we had an all-time high before the having that never happened. You know, and that was due to ETFs. It was like really specific event within Bitcoin that made that happen. Um, but at some point, you know, if the business cycle would start to expand, like perhaps to a five or to a six-year cycle, um, which is in the cards, um, then obviously also the dynamics of the spiral chart are going to change. And, you know, maybe a bearish phase. But, but currently, we're still within well within the bounds of that four-year cycle. And so, so I also don't think within the next, like one and a half year or so, I don't, I, I see very little reason for the spiral to to break. Um, after that, we'll have to see. It depends on what the business cycle is going to do, uh, what liquidity conditions are going to be like, how, how that is moving forward. Um, but, uh, I, I think eventually we'll get to some point that potentially, um, you know, price could move below a previous price four year prior, which is actually what the chart illustrates. Um, but, uh, I, I, but I still think generally, you know, the spiral will keep expanding, expanding, even if if it becomes an eight-year cycle instead of a four-year cycle at some point for whatever macro reasons or geopolitical reasons or I don't know what will influence the business cycle in that manner, and will have probably an indirect impact on Bitcoin. Um, I, I, I still think overall the lines will start expanding, but maybe not as beautifully in that four-year pattern, which, uh, uh, is fine for me, you know, like, I'm okay with that. You're, you're not married to it. It would make the chart look a little bit less cool, but it's, uh, it's not the end of the world, basically.

>> I have a three-year, a 3D spiral that I could share. Uh, wait, let me otherwise pop that up.

>> Oh, let's do it.

>> That sounds great. No, I mean, I, I think it's fascinating too, because we, we try so hard to try and figure out like what is going on. And I think so much of Bitcoin analysis tends to be very retrospective and looking back and then trying to attribute here this event happened at this time and thus that is why Bitcoin's price did whatever it did at this time. Uh, oh wow, this is this is sweet. Okay.

>> So this is the

>> Okay. Yeah. Talk to me about this. So this is the spiral chart, but, uh, see in, but in 3D, uh, form with like over and undervalued levels. And, um, oh, let me turn it a bit. So, so these blue dots are the having events. So this was the last having, the fourth having. Uh, we can see that we had these dark green dots. There's actually the all-time highs before the having. Uh, and then we had like this whole bullish phase, you know, very similar to prior cycles. We were at like above the surface level. So if you have the surface levels, you know, above the surface level, we are actually at like, uh, surface is actually fair value for Bitcoin at based on on-chain data. And [snorts] then if you're above that surface level, uh, you're actually like, you get to like overvalued levels at some point, like usually when the all-time highs happen. And and then, you know, at some point we move below the surface, which is currently, you know, what, what actually just happened. We now moved below the, uh, that 100k level. Uh, and then we got like this whole bearish phase of Bitcoin before we, uh, we make a bottom, which is, yeah, the last one was November of, uh, of, uh, of last year. Uh, and we see in time-wise that that those tend to happen slightly earlier. So it could be October this year, or potentially even earlier, because we also moved into a bare market since the last all-time high, uh, a bit sooner. But we're now below that, that, uh, slightly below that surface level now. And and, uh, and so this illustrates the the four-year cycle, the spiral, but, but so, so, yeah, if, um, if price would start to move back, like in a 2D view, perhaps it could cross the line, but in the three 3D view, it's done, it's still not crossing, you know. So, we, we can always, uh, look at the 3D version if the two-year starts failing. Um, I'm just kidding.

Can I, can I ask you too, in terms, you mentioned, okay, the the baseline is the like the fair value based on on-chain data. Can you just explain which, what on-chain data you're looking at for that? Is it realized price? Is it short-term holder cost basis? What, what, what is it that you use as that kind of demarcation?

>> Yeah, I use, uh, some metric. Like I use a top indicator and a bottom indicator that has been fairly reliable. The top indicator is actually more based on, uh, available supply for trade, so the amount of supply that's actually actively being traded. Uh, and I use the realized cap there as well. Uh, for the bottoms, I, I use a custom version of CVDD, which is, uh, uh, coin value days destroyed, which actually talks about like how many, you know, each coin when it doesn't move, it actually builds up days, uh, and, and so when, once you spend the coin with a certain age, like that value gets destroyed. And so there, that there's historically that has been a very good bottom indicator for Bitcoin because, you know, it talks, it talks actually about the value that gets destroyed by long-term holders, which set like a baseline for, for, uh, you know, how low Bitcoin can go in a way. And so, so that is what the, what this spiral chart is based on. It's a, I have also a 2D version of this, or like a normal chart, which is, uh, which is called the on-chain value map. I've, I've shared that on my Twitter and and Nostra account, uh, many times. So you can scroll through my feed and probably find the on-chain value map. Those are actually the the same levels that are shown as as in this, uh, 3D spiral version, uh, chart. [snorts]

>> Let me ask you too. Okay. Uh, sometimes I feel dirty measuring Bitcoin and fiat because it's like Bitcoin is the measuring stick, right? Like it's fiat's a terrible measuring stick. It's like we use the US dollar because it's the prettiest horse at the glue factory. It's the skinniest kid at fat camp, right? Uh, you know, it's better than measuring Bitcoin in the Iranian real, for example, or, you know, the Boulevard. Uh, or insert, or the Turkish Lira, insert any other fiat. Like the dollar sucks, but it's still better than all the rest, right? But if I'm to speak in dollar terms, looking ahead, what are [clears throat] your thoughts on just generally like what does, what does it take for Bitcoin? How long does it take for Bitcoin to actually hit that? Like I, in my mind, the next big psychological price level, like after 100K, it feels like it's a million. I don't know if there's another psychological, maybe four, you know, 420, $420,696, you know, something like that, just for mimetic purposes. But like, do, what do you think is the next psychological price level? Is it a million? And what do you think it actually takes for us to get there in terms of cycles, in terms of time?

>> Um, yeah. So, uh, a million is still slightly far away. I mean, uh, I, so let's first recover, uh, above the short-term cost basis, and then we have to first like get through this 100k psychological level, like to form like a proper base there. So I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away. Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands. Um, I still think there's like, yeah, that is still a level that would probably cause a bare market at some point for whatever reason. Maybe quantum FUD, or like, you know, I don't know. Um, uh, probably there will be something between, uh, 100,000 and a million still that causes a bare market. So I, I would still think a million dollars, which, by the way, I definitely think we will reach that at some point, but given what I, yeah, I've already slightly mentioned it before, maybe not as clear. Like, um, you know, we, I, I mentioned like re, there has been less inflow of retail, and also I said like, okay, the, the last 10 years, possibly like most of people that were interested from retail have been involved with Bitcoin, or have been, have heard about Bitcoin through some, some shape or form. Um, and so of course, there's still a slow influx of retail every year with, you know, as I said, like Gen Z coming of age and and thinking about pensions and then starting figuring out suddenly about Bitcoin. Uh, so there will always be some influx, of course, but, but what I start to realize is that, you know, maybe Bitcoin could potentially also be more of like a generational shift. Um, you know, it's like a lot of the millennials, let's say, are heavily involved in Bitcoin. Uh, because they were simply of the age that they felt screwed enough by the fiat system. I mean, the invention came at the right time, and they started thinking about pensions. That's why there's so many, so many millennials in the space, I guess. Um, and Gen Z was just still slightly too young to actually start thinking about pension, and so they haven't really gotten involved as much. Um, but, but I, so I also think like the older, basically the millennial generation gets, uh, you know, the more successful Bitcoin starts to become, and kind of Bitcoin starts to move in tandem with that generation, like to adopt it as a, as, as a base layer for society. And so, so I think, um, you know, where previously, like in previous cycles, I was still thinking, okay, we have diminishing returns, but we'll get this new influx of retail every cycle. Um, now I start to think like, hm, okay, maybe it could also be like a more of a generational shift. And so, which, which pushes actually that potentially that that million-dollar goal, uh, perhaps further out on the curve. Um, and, and so I wouldn't rule it out. I mean, that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying it has to happen in that way, but I think it's definitely worth thinking about it that, that in that way as well.

>> What's the old saying? It's like, uh, humanity advances one funeral at a time. Basically, we basically saying we need the boomers to die off. Uh, you know, we need millennials [laughter] to to

>> I didn't want to put it that bad, but, yeah, practically.

>> Yeah, it's okay. That's why I'm here. That's why I'm here.

>> No, I mean, it's, it's fair. Um, and I, I mean, you do have to applaud the boomers a little bit. Editor, like Eric Balchunas and some of the other kind of Bitcoin ETF analysts have pointed out that the amount of draw, or the amount of outflows that you saw in the Bitcoin ETFs during this drawdown was actually way, like, was very small. Like, for the most part, the boomers were holding on. They weren't disposing of their Bitcoin just because it was a drawdown. Like, that I found to be fairly interesting. I guess that's just cuz there's like a different, uh, there's a different calculus happening there, right? Like this is, they're taking a small portion of a very large portfolio.

>> Institutions move at a slower pace also, like they, you know, they take a longer time to actually get involved in the market, but once they're in there, they'll probably stay stick around longer and more carefully. I mean, there needs to be a decision made like by a board, and that takes time. And so they move kind of slower than, uh, retail would move, basically, on whatever the news is saying at the moment, and and and sell or buy, you know, at the wrong times. Uh, so institutions avoid a bit of that hype chasing, uh, but, but also hype gets chased with institutions, and we actually see with gold now how hype can be chased, not only by retail but by a whole country. And and so I think that's definitely also in the cards for Bitcoin. Uh, so, so, so I think that will actually happen to Bitcoin. It will just take time. I think, uh, what we see now, like, you know, you know, all the, basically the, the, the OGs that are in Bitcoin, we've convinced, uh, uh, we've convinced institutions that Bitcoin is worth holding, and it's going to become a bigger part of the portfolio. And at some point, uh, you know, yeah, boomers indeed start dying off and are starting to take over, and, you know, it just makes sense for Bitcoin to be used as the base layer of society rather than like some, some, I don't know, fiat like political dependent currency. Um, so, yeah.

>> Amen to that. Let me ask you from a practical standpoint, do you, do you advise people to like, if they come to you the same route, I want to get into Bitcoin. Do I smash buy, or do I start DCAing right now? What do you tell people?

>> I'm going to show you another chart. Um,

>> Amazing.

>> A chart for everything. I love this map.

>> Here's a chart with days, uh, until the having. So as I said, like, okay, the having is becoming less relevant, but the having is more aligned with moves in tandem with like the four-year cycle, which is the exact pattern we've been in. And so, um, here I use, uh, also the on-chain data. So we actually, we use the realized price, which is the average purchase price of of Bitcoin. And what we tend to see is that, you know, in, in during a bottom formation, we tend to move slightly below the realized price. Realized price is currently sitting at, uh, you know, 45k. Um, it's still, you know, it's kind of moving sideways for now. So depending on what Bitcoin does, like if we stick around maybe in the 70s, 80s, it might still move up a bit to the to the 50s. Uh, what also is true is that Bitcoin tends to move less, um, uh, dramatically below the realized price, uh, each cycle. So we might barely touch it this time, or perhaps this might be the first cycle that we don't drop below it because we also, as I said, like, you know, the suppression to the upside also means suppression to the downside. You know, we have gradual institutional adoption that continues. We have probably a bit less of that long-term holder selling around these price levels. And so, uh, we could also, uh, you know, potentially have a more, uh, limited bottom than we made in previous cycles. But timewise, as we see, I think, and that's still something I, I say. I think more so time-wise than price-wise, there's still, you know, it's, it's not really in favor. Like, I think there's still a couple of months ahead that we could have like this sideways chop, potentially have another leg like towards that realized price before we really start like building up again and and starting this upward movement. Um, so, so, you know, my recommendation for anyone because I think Bitcoin is already severely undervalued at minus 50%. Like, and also if we, if we look at what Bitcoin represents, what it can do for the world, like, in my opinion, Bitcoin is more important than AI. Like, you know, AI has a lot of cool things and it's going to add a lot of efficiency, but it's also going to allow governments to get away with tons of money printing, which is exactly what Bitcoin solves. And so, so, you know, fundamentally, I think Bitcoin is more important for society than for humanity in general than AI is. AI will perhaps make some lives better, but also worse, uh, in in some situations. Bitcoin will make people's lives better in, in my opinion, and it's, it's much needed, especially in a world moving into with with AI. Um, so, so, but, so I think, yeah, if you're wanting to get in into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued, but we could still get slightly lower. So, so my, like, I think the practical approach here is for the next couple of months to just average in, like, and and don't try to exactly time that bottom, you know, it might be a wick at certain moment in time. Uh, maybe it has already been in, you know, because institutions keep gradually buying and and and the sell pressure from long-term holders starts like, uh, diminishing now, and and that this is it, like, you know, would be really cool, but I, I think the more likely outcome here is that we still have, uh, some, some time of that, you know, forming a bottom takes time, and especially given that them that mind share is taken away by AI and gold, uh, I think, yeah, there's going to be a bit of a drag on on Bitcoin's price now. That's cool that we're on in in the 70 range now. Uh, but we see that every cycle, you know, we, we have like these blue dots that represent the all-time highs, basically the bull markets, and then we start to move in a bear. We have a drop towards that like realized price, then we move a bit up, and, you know, and then we turn over again. We actually make a low, and then we start moving up. And so I think that is the pattern we've seen historically. I think it's also the most practical to assume that that will happen. Um, now, that doesn't mean that it has to happen. I mean, I'm willing to change my mind at any moment in time. If Bitcoin moves back above the short-term holder cost basis, uh, and we move into bullish territory, I become a bull. Uh, but, but currently, I'm, uh, I mean, I'm a bull long-term. Uh, but I, I do think we have to get through this bearish phase in the next couple of months.

>> [ __ ] dude. Are you telling me we're about to go into the 40s? Is that, is that what I'm hearing right now? [laughter]

>> I actually, um, I mean, the higher 40s would be kind of my, my lowest estimate. So I, but, but as I said, I don't think we have to get there because we have this, you know, I think treasury companies, like strategy will probably keep on buying this whole bottom down. They are prepared. They have the long-term mindset. And and and and I think like if we compare this to, uh, to the previous bare market, like 2022, we had a lot of these crypto companies falling over. And and so there's a bit of that fear, like, oh, are the treasury companies fall over as well? But, but I don't think any of the treasury companies, um, got into this game without expecting that we could have a year bare market, which is literally what the four-year cycle has represented, like, you know, from the start. And so, and, and, and definitely strategy isn't, you know, their, their, you know, liquidation price, there's, there's no real liquidation price, but I think it's like around 20k or something like they, they, they would get in real troubles. But, uh, I think there's like no chance that we'll get there and get that low. So I think Sailor's play on the long term is the totally like the correct mindset, and I think he's able to to like survive this bare market, and he's the biggest one, uh, that has the most, uh, you know, market share in terms like terms of treasury companies. Maybe some small ones will still fall over if we drop a little lower because of bad, like risk management. But, uh, I, I, I think, yeah, this phase will pass, and I actually expect it to be less severe than the than the 22 bare market. But time-wise, I do think we can get like choppy price action. So we could stay maybe perhaps in three months, we'll talk, and we're still at the same price that we are today, you know, in a way that would be good, you know, that would be like this continuation and of of the four-year cycle, and then maybe have like one more draw down slightly, and then, you know, but, but, yeah, I see it also as a tremendous opportunity for someone like, some of the people I talked to are actually waiting, like they are understanding this concept as well, and they're they're waiting to become full full coiners. And so, so that is really cool to see. And so, so I think this, this also allows for tremendous opportunity.

>> What I'm hearing is 58K is a magnet. That that's just, you know, the prophecy will be fulfilled. 58K gang will celebrate. Uh, and then we can, once we've had that, then we can go parabolic. I'm putting words in your mouth, but this is just what I'm I'm intuiting out of this.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That, that I think it's a likely outcome. But, uh, I mean, there, it's, it's all probabilities, and so I cannot say this is what Bitcoin is going to do. Bitcoin actually tends to do the opposite of some, some, what people, what most people think. But, uh, I, I, yeah, looking at history and looking at the data, and actually looking at the current on-chain data, because on-chain data is not perfect in predicting what Bitcoin is going to do, but it's fairly good at estimating like in what kind of position are we currently like compared to previous cycles, and like, you know, and, and, and, and actually it shows we're very much in line with previous cycles. And so, like, as much as I want to say four-year cycle is that, you know, the four-year cycle is not that, like, not, not at this point. It's actually ex, we're exactly in the same pattern. Yet, did we not have a parabolic move up? Like, yes, that was a difference. But, uh, yeah, there's actually good reasons for that. We, I, I tried to explain him this time, you know, gradual institutional adoption, a bit of suppression because of a lot of OTC purchases instead of spot, and so we have like a much more distributed top, which we already saw a bit in 2021, and we saw it even more so in this cycle. So, so there doesn't have to be, there's no rule that there has to be that the cycle has to end with a parabolic top. You know, that is something unsustainable to begin with. And this time, there was less hype in the market than than previous cycles, and so we had a bit more, uh, distributed price action. [snorts]

>> Right. Let me ask you too. Are there, uh, are there any charts that you have here that we have not gone over yet?

>> Um, there are a couple, but they're not like of major importance. So this is maybe, uh, the last interesting one to talk like about the, the, the near-term. Uh, so this is the supply distribution. Um, so it actually puts basically from zero to all-time high where like the 21 million coins at which price levels are they all sitting, you know, like, so where have they been all purchased? And, and so we actually see like very interesting here. This is the November 2022 bottom, like the 16k. It's still like fairly high bar, like that, and that stems all the way from 2022. So you see how this was like really a capital bar. Now in February, we had the crash where the bar, which is not as high as as the the 2022 bottom, and that's like this one is much more recent, right? Like, so, so usually when a bar is recent, there's still like a significant, um, chance that it will move lower over time because, you know, Bitcoin gets sold. That was like, you know, purchased at this, uh, price level. Um, and so, so that also again is like one of those reasons why I think, ah, this looks more like a June bottom than like a real bare market bottom yet. Like, currently, we're sitting right in this gap, you know? So we had the the 67k price level, 85k level. And so I, I, we're sitting in this gap where like there's very little supply sitting here. So, this is also a bit of like resistance moving into this zone because there's like supply that might be sold. Uh, and, and here there's a bit of support, you know, there's already supply bought at this, and so, so it's very likely in the near term to like kind of stay within this range. Um, I mean, Bitcoin can of course do whatever it wants. It might move like suddenly like much higher, what, whatever, like depends on on many events, but I'm talking about probabilities. Like a likely outcome in my opinion is to get like sideways chop within the 70, 80k range for the near term. We see that by this, uh, on-chain distribution.

>> Okay. No, it's a, it's an interesting chart. Was there, was there another one you wanted to put up too?

>> Uh,

>> I just want to make sure we, we, we get through, uh, through all the charts in case.

>> Yeah, we covered, we covered most of it, actually. Uh, there's, there's still one on profit levels. Uh, so this is maybe the last one that we haven't really shared, which is, um, uh, this is, uh, profit, like short-term holder profit, um, and, and we see now that we're like profit levels are very near zero, which is, uh, which typically indicates this bare market, uh, phase, you know, like these, so these red bars represent the bare market, basically. And, uh, so what we see is that in previous bare markets, we still have, we had actually quite a lot of red bars, like before we had that real bottom formation. So, and currently we're like in short. So, it, so as I said, like, it could be 2019, like, okay, maybe this time is different, you know, like, we could move out of it fast, but my assumption, like the main probability is that that, yeah, it will still take some time, and that we, you know, we need the time to make to form this bottom, and that profit levels will stay low for, uh, the near term, and for the next couple of months. So I expect these red bars actually to continue, and and be more similar to previous bare markets, uh, rather than like the 2019 situation, basically, because like, why? Because hype is a bit gone in the market, like it's, it's within, it's with AI, it's with gold, it's not with Bitcoin, uh, now. There's the Bitcoiners that are with Bitcoin, but, um, but, yeah, those will make sure that the bottom gets formed eventually, before we start moving into like a new bull. I don't know if you have any other questions about this chart, let me know.

>> It's, it's, it's, it's fascinating stuff. I mean, you know, I remain extremely bullish, and I guess the reason that I remain extremely bullish, like, even though you're telling me like, look, we could probably go maybe we could go into the 40s, maybe we're probably going to go into the 50s, maybe we're going to crab around for a while. I just wasn't expecting, and this is like an expectation setting thing. I wasn't expecting to be able to buy Bitcoin under 100K for such another extended period of time. Like, and that was me being too bullish on the front end of that, right? But now

>> I think there's many people in your situation, especially from like people from that are white one cycle in, they feel that they don't have enough Bitcoin yet. I think there's tremendous opportunity for them to get more Bitcoin. Yeah. So, so I also think it, it, it's like really an opportunity that should like, you know, take advantage of this situation, guys. Like, if you're in that situation, you don't have enough Bitcoin. And actually, no one has enough Bitcoin. But if I think of like, I mean, I have, I have some OG friends like even from 2013, 2011 era, you know, they're sitting on a lot of Bitcoin, and so of course, you know, they're not really necessarily looking to add more, like, you know, they, they are fine, you know, and, and they actually are the ones causing some of this distribution because they made the right bet, you know, and, and I think that's natural. I mean, we have this adoption, but, but there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it needs supposed to do, and we're following even this parallel like model of adoption, which I think, yeah, is this natural phenomenon. I think that that's very realistic to continue that, and and Bitcoin has all the fundamentals there. You know, it keeps on improving. Yes, there is some quantum resistance fear, as I said, you know, that needs to be taken care of. But there's already people working on that. We have BIP, like Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 working on that exactly, to protect our coins. Now, I'm not saying some of the quantum stuff could definitely still cause another bare market because, you know, it means like a decentralized, you know, consensus to get consensus for like having another improvement to Bitcoin, which tends like historically was never an easy thing to to do. But, uh, I, I do think we'll get it figured out if the fear becomes too high, the stakes become too high, and so we, we, you know, people need to move, and we'll need to go through with some update, uh, at some point. And, and, and so I'm, I'm not afraid that that will not happen. Uh, but, but yeah, Bitcoin for me, uh, represents so much opportunity, as I said, like for me, it's more important than AI, and I'm, I'm working with AI. I'm, I'm actually using Codex, Claude, I'm, I'm trying out these things, and I see the, like, it's going to have so much impact on society. It's, it's, you know, we're, we're still at the, like, only at the beginning of of the impact that AI is going to have. Um, but, and, and AI will also provide tremendous opportunity, but it will also provide our government with tremendous amount of money printing or getting away with it again, and, and, and our lives will will not really get significantly improved because, you know, the living standard will just increase, you know, we, yes, we'll have a robot in our house, but, you know, we still cannot afford to go to the supermarket. And, and so, yeah, it's, it's, you know, that will continue, and that is what AI actually represents in a way. And so, I'm so happy that there is Bitcoin as a solution, and I think the whole millennial generation will, uh, will, well, there's enough of us within Bitcoin, and we've convinced the institutions, they're actually, they're not going away. They're, we actually have evidence that they're, they're only increasing their positions. Our regulation is getting better in the US, especially. Was it bought? Yes. You know, but, but doesn't matter. It, you know, it's going to get there, and it's going to get adopted, and, uh, will continue, and, and, and Bitcoin will continue to infiltrate the fiat system till it's big enough to really take over.

>> Man, I say amen to that. That's a, I think that's a perfect note to wrap up on too. Root, where can people go to find you, to check out your newsletter, anywhere else you want to send people?

Yeah. So, I'm on Noster and I'm on Twitter as dationalroot, and then I have, uh, the ditcoin, uh, of bitcoin strategy platform.com. Um, and, and, uh, bitcoinstrategy.substack.com where I have my newsletter. So, uh, if you subscribe, you get like access to these charts, to my insights. I actually send out a weekly newsletter with these updates. Uh, and paid subscribers get actually access to all the live charts and to extra information, you know, to keep them prepared for what's coming and feel comfortable.

>> I love it. Well, I appreciate you breaking all this stuff down for us today. This was fascinating. Uh, I, I think even though you say we may be going lower, I think I'm still more bullish after this conversation. So, I don't know. Mission accomplished somehow there. Um, I, I remain bullish. I'm going to keep stacking as hard as I possibly can. I encourage my fellow plebs to do the same. But yeah, any, anything else you want to leave folks with before we close out?

>> No, thank you so much for having me, Walker. Uh, and keep doing what you're doing. Keep spreading the good information on Bitcoin and, uh, you know, we, it's in, you know, it's in our hands to, uh, make the world a better place and, and to do whatever we can to, uh, have Bitcoin prosper also. So.

>> Amen to that. And thank you to everybody who joined on the live stream on Noster. This show live streams only on Noster. So if you want to see it live, go check out Noster if you haven't already. Rational Root, Root, thank you so much for joining. This was a pleasure, man. Glad we got the chance to do this. And yeah, again, I'm, I remain bullish. And that's a wrap on this Bitcoin Talk episode of the Bitcoin Podcast. Remember to subscribe to this podcast wherever you're watching or listening, and share it with your friends, family, and strangers on the internet. Find me on Noster at primal.net/walker and this podcast at primal.net/titcoin on X, YouTube, and Rumble. Just search and find this podcast on X and Instagram at titcoinodcast. Head to the show notes to grab sponsor links. Head to substack.com/walkeramea to get episodes emailed to you, and head to bitcoinpodcast.net for everything else. Bitcoin is scarce, but podcasts are abundant. So, thank you for spending your scarce time listening to the Bitcoin podcast. Until next time, stay free.