Transcription
Week 10 fantasy football start sit strategy for every single game matchups that matter. Going through overunders and pace of play and DVOA matchups and who you should start, who you should sit. Everything will be covered in today's video. If you enjoy at any point, leave a like and subscribe if you're new around here.
We're going to start it off by going through the Berlin game. We do have a 9:30 a.m. kickoff game. So, if you're on the West Coast, make sure you get up early to set your lineups. We also have 1 p.m. games, three 4 p.m. games, and then a regularly scheduled Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football game.
The Berlin game that we have here is the Atlanta Falcons traveling to Germany to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Obviously, neutral sight game, but technically the Colts are the home team. Minus 6 and a half points. The Colts are favored. 48 1/2 is the total overunder for this game. If you guys recall last week, the Colts laid a stinker against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The overunder catching a little bit of the steam here on the over. Pace of play is pretty solid. Atlanta's DVOA matchup actually a really nice advantage versus the Colts defense who of course do now have Sauce Gardner but generally have been pretty exploitable.
Uh start Daniel Jones versus the Falcons. He is definitely a viable streaming quarterback this week. I do think if you're desperate if you have Mahomes on by or Dak Prescott on buy, you could go out and stream Michael Penn as well given the matchup. I don't think Saw will play a full complement of snaps in this game and Pennix um did just come off of his first three touchdown game of the season. Both running backs have league average matchups. And of course, you're going to be starting Dejian Robinson and Jonathan Taylor every single week, but both defenses are about average against the run.
Start Drake London versus the Colts. Of course, we know what he did last week. Three touchdowns a week ago. Michael Pitman, Josh DS, and Alec Pierce. All of them are viable plays. Of course, Pitman's an every week starter, but Downs and Pierce have kind of rotated who gets the big plays, who gets the touchdowns every single week. And given the strength of this offense, I do think you could throw either of them out there if you needed to. and the fact that it's a 48 and a half point overunder game. Tyler Warren's in your lineup every single week at tight end. Kyle Pittz, a very, very good matchup. The 30th ranked defense against opposing tight ends, the Indianapolis Colts. And then if you do need a defense, I think the Colts defense is in play. Although I will say it's not a very good defense and the Falcons can score points. And I do think both kickers are in play as well, but specifically Michael Badgley of the Indianapolis Colts, the better play of the two of them.
Stat of the game for this one. The Falcons get a Colts defense who has faced the second most red zone plays in the NFL as a defense in total. So, a lot of teams are able to move the ball easily on the Colts. And that's actually been the problem for the Falcons if anybody's been watching the Falcons in depth. They've kind of had a lot of stalled drives, a lot of three and outs, a lot of little mistakes like drops and whatnot, killing drives. So, getting into the red zone would be really crucial for Drake London, who of course scored three red zone touchdowns last week, and of course, Bejian Robinson and Tyler Algier.
Moving into the 1pm window, we have the Carolina Panthers, the 5-4 Carolina Panthers taking on the New Orleans Saints. NFC South battle here. The Panthers are 5 and a half point favorites. They are implied for 22 and a half points. 39 1/2 is the overunder. So, not a very exciting game environment, but I do like the over to hit here. The most steam of any matchup on the entire slate. The Sharps are banging the over on that 39 and a half. And I expect it probably by Sunday to be like 40 and a half or 41 points. Pace of play the single highest on the slate. This is maybe the lock of the century as far as this game going over. Although both defensive matchups are pretty tough on the opposing offenses, neither of which are good.
Bryce Young is a streamable quarterback. I know he was terrible against the Packers last week, but they basically just ran the ball. And I do think Bryce Young has a nice easy matchup here. Rico Dow is going to be in your lineup, who of course is now the starting running back for the Carolina Panthers. Alvin Chimera has been brutal the last couple of weeks, but I do think he could bounce back in this matchup, giving him flex consideration at the very least. I don't think he's a great option, but if you needed to throw him out there, you could. Chris Ave now without Rasheed Shahid because he's obviously been traded to the Seattle Seahawks. Chris Ave should command even more of the New Orleans Saints targets. Tedo McMillan going to be in your lineup given his target share. And because Rasheed Shahi is no longer in New Orleans, I think Jawan Johnson is a very viable every week streamable tight end, especially in this matchup where Carolina can be susceptible over the middle of the field. If you need a defense, I think Carolina's not a bad one. And their kicker also not a bad kicker as well.
Stat of the game for this one is that the Saints run in between the tackles nearly 60% of the time, which is kind of weird considering that's not really the strength of Alvin Chimera's game. The second highest rate in the league. The Panthers are allowing 5.15 yards per carry, which is the second highest two opposing teams who run in between the A and B gaps, aka in between the tackles. So, I do think that we get an Alvin Chimera bounceback from a rushing yardage perspective. And something I'm doing in this video that I don't usually do every week is I'm going to be doing a matchups that matter pick entry. Um, if you guys do want to tail it, you can obviously do that. I like the higher on Alvin Chimera's rushing yards. 35 and a half rushing yards is what it's set at. Um, and the Panthers winning last week was an elite call on my part. I literally said Packers, Panthers. I could see the Panthers winning that game outright. So, I'm going to start building out a pick them entry with flex caliber players going forward.
Moving into the New York Giants taking on the Chicago Bears. Bears are at home for this one. Four and a half points is the overunder. The over catching a lot of the steam even though it's already high at 46 1/2. And the pace of play is also quite high in this game. Both defenses are pretty bad, so the opposing offense has pretty much free reign to have a top 12 advantage in this matchup. So, I do really like this game to potentially shoot out.
Caleb Williams going to be in your lineup. Jackson Dark going to be in your lineup. Probably the two single best. I wouldn't call them streamers cuz they're pretty widely rostered quarterbacks. But, as far as like non-every week starters, these two are as good as it gets for um players you could be starting this week. DeAndre Swift should be back for this game versus a New York Giants run defense that is pretty much the worst in football. And DeAndre Swift did log a full practice as of yesterday, Thursday. So I shouldn't I wouldn't expect him to be really limited. And I do think it's possible that he gets a little bit more of the work that he was getting before his injury because him and Manai had been switching off a little bit more frequently because he was dealing with a groin issue. But it is possible now that Manai had such a great game that he gets more work as a result of that. Tyrone Tracy is difficult to figure out because of course Deon Singleary outnapped and out carried him last week. But as I talked about in previous videos, I do think that Tyrone Tracy will still be the back to own here. I think that Devin Singleary may have just had the hot hand and that's kind of why they rolled with him. Tyrone Tracy of the two running backs is definitely my preference of who to start.
Romo Dunce is expected to see shadow coverage from Pulson Adibbo who when healthy has been pretty good in shadow coverage. Wandell Robinson and DJ Moore are both in play if you need flex options in this game. Uh Coloulston Lovelin definitely a streamable if not top 10 tight end play this week. Even though Cole KD is back at practice, I do expect Coloulson Lovelin to probably have had his breakout game against the Bengals and now be the starting tight end going forward. Theo Johnson if you need a streaming tight end because you have Jake Ferguson or Travis Kelce on by. I think he's one of the best widely available tight end pickups that you could go after. And then if you do need a defense, I probably wouldn't start a defense in this game given the game environment, but the Bears can get their hands on some turnovers at times. Jackson Dart is prone to turning the ball over at times as well. So, if you need a a defensive streamer, I think the Bears favored by four and a half points. You could do worse. And Kairo Santos also a very good kicking streamer as well.
Stat of the game, I could list 47 stats why the New York Giants are horrendous against the run. I I didn't feel like wasting your time with that. But how about the Bears defense being dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. So, this in my opinion, the explosive pass catcher on the the Giants is Darius Sllayton. This could be a game where he finds a long touchdown or whatever the case is. So, I like him to go higher than 20 and a half for his longest reception. This is also a good like dumpster dive game as well. So, if you guys need some flex options that are widely available, Darius Sllayton's a good one. Devin Singleary maybe you picked up this week. Olam Zakius is probably not a bad one either. Theo Johnson at tight end, like I said, and both quarterbacks are available in some leagues as well. So, a lot of good like low-end plays that you could maybe pick up off of waivers and throw into your lineup in what should be a high-scoring game.
This game, not so much. Houston Texans taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'll keep this one brief. 37 1/2 point overunder doesn't make it fantasy appealing at all. The only thing I will say about this game is that the Jaguars being favored by only one point at home versus Davis Mills is really shocking to me. I think by the time kickoff reaches, this one could be moved to two and a half, maybe even three points because maybe part of this was factoring in that Strad could play or something like that. But yeah, the Jaguars I think cover probably two and a half or three points very easily here.
This game you probably don't want to be starting too many players because I don't think Brian Thomas is going to be active. He hasn't been practicing with that ankle issue. Trevor Lawrence, not a starter because you won't have Brian Thomas out there and you don't have Travis Hunter out there. So, it'll be Jacobe Myers who just got there. Parker Washington, who's obviously there and then maybe um some Demi Brown and whatnot there, but not a lot of great weapons for Trevor Lawrence in this game. So, definitely don't start him. Travis ETN can be in your lineup though. He is getting the workload. He's an every week starter for that reason. It is a tough matchup for him. Woody Marks, very difficult run defense matchup specifically in the red zone. And the Jaguars are number one in lowest success rate allowed to opposing running games. So Woody Marks and Nick Chub probably going to have a hard time punching in a touchdown, but Woody Marks can catch some passes in this game. Nico Collins is in your lineup. He got 10 targets, had like seven receptions last week. He's definitely um actually been okay with Davis Mills when he's been out there, too. If you do need a low-end flex play, again, I think there's better options out there, but Parker Washington is not a bad one. If you picked him up off of waiverss, Daltton Schultz also not a bad option if you need a streaming tight end this week. I think he's one of the better options out there. He actually has the best matchup of any tight end in fantasy football this weekend. I think with Davis Mills, he'll be a little conservative, probably throw to his tight end quite a bit. Both defenses are in play given the overunder of this game.
PF's Red Zone matchup preview, like I said, has the Jaguars listed as the most successful red zone rushing defense in the NFL. 22.2% success rate. At the same time though, they are the least successful pass defense in the red zone with a 59.1% success rate in the red zone. So, I would say if you guys are looking for an anytime touchdown pick, Nico Collins might not be a bad option in this one. Nor would Daltton Schultz or even Christian Kirk potentially.
Buffalo Bills taking on the Miami Dolphins. The Bills are 9 and a half point road favorites in this game. 50 point overunder. The under catching a little bit of the steam here. The pace of play is kind of slow. Um, but the Bills have the number one advantage of any offense versus any defense of any team on the slate in week 10.
Josh Allen in your lineup, James Cook in your lineup, Daltton Concincaid and every week starter right now given how he's performed in Daltton Concade's healthy games. Meaning the only game that he wasn't healthy in was the one he played half the snaps the Panthers got blown out. Concaid didn't practice all that week with an oblique injury. Pretty much in every other healthy game, he's been an elite tight end. He's a 15 point per game without that game and a 13.2 point per game score with that game. So, he is an every week starter, especially in this matchup. Devon Achan gonna be in your lineup. Jaylen Wadd definitely in your lineup given the involvement that those two guys have in this offense. Of course, nobody's messing with Tua Tonga. I do want to point your attention to Khil Shakir being one of the better starts of flexible kind of wide receivers as well this week. Buffalo's defense definitely in play given the turnover prone nature of Tua Tonga Aloa these days and um Matt Prader the kicker also in play.
The stat of the game here is that no wide receiver has a single easier matchup than Khalil Shakir of any wide receiver on the week 10 slate per fantasy points wide receiver quarterback matchups. Minka Fitzpatrick, who is the slot quarterback match up here, has allowed the most fantasy points per route run this season and the highest target rate to oppo opposing slot wide receivers. So, Khalil Shakir, I like him to go higher than 46 and a half receiving yards. And I do think if you have him, he's a very good option to throw out there. If you need some dumpster dive plays, I think there's some good options in this game as well. Malik Washington, not a bad option. Keon Coleman, not a bad option. Ray Davis, maybe if James Cook is limited in any way, but he's probably not going to be. So, um, yeah, a couple of good dumpster dive plays there.
Moving into the next game, we have the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Minnesota Vikings. The Ravens are four-point road favorites in this game. We saw JJ McCarthy do some corny ass, you know, in his zone kind of clip that went viral. Um, we'll see what he looks like in this game because I mean, this is his fourth ever start. He's pretty much only looked good on like scripted plays and in that fourth quarter of the week one game. He's been very hot and cold. Let's see how he sustains some offense. He also didn't really throw the ball a ton because they were able to run the ball decently and get some turnovers on defense last week against the Lions.
Uh the Ravens being four-point favorites and having an overunder of 49 points makes them implied for 26 and a half here. And the over is catching quite a bit of the steam. So you got to start all your Ravens. I mean Lamar Jackson's in your lineup. Derrick Henry is in your lineup. Although he does have a really tough matchup interior rushing wise. The Vikings are one of the best defenses in the league at those type of runs. And then of course um you're also going to start Z Flowers. And I think you could throw Mark Andrews out there because with Andrews you're pretty much just hoping he catches a touchdown. That's all you can hope for out of Mark Andrews at this point in his career. He's not going to have nine catches anymore. He's probably more of a three catch and you hope he catches a touchdown type of play. But I do think you can put him out there given this matchup that he has. And also on the Viking side of things, I think that JJ McCarthy is one of the best streaming quarterbacks this week because he runs 25 plus rushing yards and or a touchdown in every start of his career so far. And also the Ravens are a pretty susceptible defense to pretty much everything whether it's the run 28th for Aaron Jones assuming he plays with that shoulder injury and then the pass. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison the 26th easiest matchup and even TJ Hawinson the 15th easiest matchup there. So keep an eye on the Vikings backfield. That's the one issue that we don't really know about right now. Is Aaron Jones going to play or is it going to be Jordan Mason? When it's Jones, it looks like he is slightly the starting running back at this point in time.
Stat of the game here is that the Vikings are number one in football in pressure rate. You heard that right, number one in football. Their pressure rate is nearly 50%. So this is a team that of course they blitz a lot. They're getting home with their blitzes. They're actually number one in pressure rate by like 4%. like it's not even close. Who's the best pressuring team in football right now? Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are sixth worst in the NFL at allowing pressure. So, I do think there's going to be a lot of quick throws, maybe a lot of scramble runs for Lamar Jackson, short passes to Isaiah likely. Short passes to Zay Flowers, short passes maybe even to Justice Hill. If you guys need a real desperation play, I think Justice Hill is not a terrible one. Rashad Baitman not a terrible desperate desperation play either. TJ Hawinson, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely. All good dumpster dive type of plays in this game.
Moving into the Cleveland Browns taking on the New York Jets. The Browns are two-point road favorites in this game. The Jets, of course, just traded away two of their best players, Quinnon Williams and S Gardner. We still of now don't know if Justin Fields is going to play this game. We don't know if he's going to start or if it's going to be Tyrod Taylor. I suspect given that they won their first game before the buy that it will be Justin Fields cuz he like what's the point of playing Tyrod Taylor? like you're like a one-win football team. You might as well see if the young kid can do something for you. And for Justin Fields' sake, maybe he can revive his career in this situation here. Overunder is 38 points though, so this is not a very good game environment. Both offenses terrible matchups.
Justin Fields, if he plays, is a viable streamer because of his rushing ability and what he can do with his legs. The only real guys that I care about in this game are Bree Hall, who's an every starter at running back, although he does have the second hardest rushing defense matchup in the league. Garrett Wilson, who of course is an every week starter at wide receiver. And it does sound like Garrett Wilson will play in this game and of course I have to play him in my home league. So that's just classic. Quinnon Judkins should be up for this game as well. Um the shoulder injury doesn't seem to be a major issue. Like looking at the injury report, I'm actually going to do this live because I don't actually know what his injury status is at the current moment. Um Quinnon Judkins, of course, if you guys remember, suffered the AC joint sprain before the week and he is not even on the injury report. So it looks like he's just going to be just fine. And speaking of Garrett Wilson, he is limited in both of the last two days. If he gets in a full participation today on Friday, he should be good to go as well. David and Jooku, keep an eye on this. Harold Fannon was downgraded um from no injury designation to did not practice on Thursday with a hamstring. So maybe he suffered that on Wednesday's practice or early in Thursday's practice or something like that. Um, because he is now maybe questionable for this game and that would really upgrade David and Jooku and he would be a top 10 to 12 play at the tight end position assuming he's alone in that tight end core. And if Fannon doesn't play, I think if you're desperate, you maybe could throw Jerry Judy out there as well. Um, but not a really good game environment. If you need a streaming defense, Cleveland's defense is streamable and their kicker is streamable. I would not stream the Jets defense, even though they are the home team in this game because they just lost their two best defensive players.
Stat of the game here is that this matchup features two teams that are second to last and third to last in offensive series success rate. Aka, they basically turn the ball over like crazy and have three and outs and punt all the time. So, if you don't have to start somebody in this game, I wouldn't. Um, my first glance was like, "Oh, maybe Jerry Judy's interesting here." But even with Harold Phantom potentially being out, there's probably better dumpster dives to go after here.
So, moving into the final 1pm game of the slate, and this is by far the most exciting one between the Tom Brady Bowl here, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the New England Patriots. My Buccaneers are favored by two and a half points. Tampa Bay implied for 25.25. New England pli implied for just under 23. The overunder is 48. Now, again, talking about locks and whatnot, this game's going under. I do not see this game being a shootout, and 48 points is a lot for two teams, A who may have difficult matchups against the opposing defense, specifically as it relates to running the ball, and B, the Bucks are the home team, the one implied for more points here, and they have struggled as an offense and are missing a ton of players here. So, I do not see this game going over. I don't think this is going to be a shootout.
But, if you do need to start the quarterbacks, I think you can. and Baker Mayfield and Drake May both um pretty much every week starters or at least very high-end streamers in Baker Mayfield's case. Um, you could definitely throw those guys out there. Trevian Henderson probably will start for the New England Patriots because Raandre Stevenson as of today still has not practiced and probably will miss this game with his turf toe injury. The Buccaneers really good against the run, but they have allowed the most receiving yards per game to running backs and Trevion can of course catch a lot of passes and maybe break a long one in this one. Uh Rashad White also going to get the start most likely because Bucky Irving is out yet again and uh probably won't be back until I'd imagine like week 12, week 13. Like we thought, oh maybe he's going to be back coming off of the buy because he wasn't put on IR, but he has now missed his fifth game in a row. So putting him on IR maybe would have been the right thing to do if we were the Buccaneers and uh we were making decisions here.
Acha Ibuka is expected to see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. Now Christian Gonzalez has only been back for a couple of weeks, but he has shadowed some receivers when they're the clear number one. And Igbuka right now is the clear number one. And Igbuka also said since the Detroit Lions game when Mike Evans went down and we've seen Igbuka's production be down in this period of time, he's been getting shadow coverage. He's been getting shaded safeties over the top and stuff because he's the only threat out there right now. They don't have Godwin, they don't have Evans, they don't have Jaylen McMillan, they don't have Bucky Irving. Like there's no real threats outside of Amecha Ibuka. So I do think not only is he going to get shadow coverage, but he'll probably get over the top shading as well. So Amecha Ibuka may have a dud in this game. I hope he doesn't for my sake because I have him in the flock league. But it is possible he doesn't have a great game here. Stefon Diggs and Tez Johnson if you need flex options in this game are pretty decent. If Kahan Booty is out, which is not guaranteed at this point in time, you could also maybe throw Deario Douglas out there as well. Um, stream both tight ends if you need one. Hunter Henry, K. Do both like top 20 tight ends for me this week. You could throw them out there if you needed them. And definitely play Chase Mclofflin and Nick Folk in play as well at the kicker position.
Stat of the game here is that this game features two defenses that are both top eight in EPA per play allowed. So, these are two defenses playing really, really well, which is why I think this game is going under. Both defenses are also top five in every major rushing defense metric that you can look at. So, this is a team and a game environment that will require people to drop back and pass, and I do think they're going to struggle in doing that because when you're doing that, you get blitzed by Todd BS and Baker Mayfield doesn't have great protection at this point in time and not a lot of weapons to throw to. So, this game probably going to feature a lot of short passes, specifically short right, which weird stat. The New England Patriots lead the league in giving up passes short right, which is like and they're like way ahead of everybody else. So, it's just a random weird idiosyncrasy with their defense right now. Well, who ranks number one in short right receptions on the Buccaneers this season? TZ Johnson. So, he is a very good flex play in this game. And I like him to go higher than three and a half receptions. I think they're going to get a lot of pressure and they're going to have to manufacture some looks for a guy who can get out in space and TZ Johnson getting a lot of receptions makes a lot of sense for me in this game and you should definitely play him if you guys need a top 35 to 40 wide receiver play.
Moving into the 4pm window, we have the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle implied for 25.75 points. The overunder of 45 points over catching 11% of the steam here. The pace of play is fifth best of any um pace of play game on the slate here. And the Seattle Seahawks have the fourth highest DVOA advantage. This game features one of my most difficult decisions in the Flock League. You guys are going to see the clip that I make about it. But I'm facing Mason this week in the Flock League and I'm deciding between Kenneth Walker and Kamani Vidal. And I'm leaning towards Kenneth Walker, which I'll detail in that clip if you guys are watching the vlogs. But um part of why I like Walker this week and also just all the Seahawks players is the Cardinals defense is pretty susceptible to pretty much everything. You can run against them, you can pass against them, you can throw explosive plays against them. They're actually um success rate per drop back as an offense. The Seahawks are number one in the NFL and the Cardinals as a defense are seventh in success rate allowed per drop back which is the stat of the game.
So big game potentially for Sam Darnold, JSN maybe the run game as well. Kenneth Walker coming out of the buy posted a season high in snapshare, season high in route participation and also had a couple of targets in that game. So uh pretty interesting game environment on the Cardinal side of things. Marvin Harrison and Jacobe Brassette seem to have a great connection. So definitely throw Marvin Harrison out there. Of course, Trey McBride is an every week starter at tight end. If you're looking for a running back play on the Cardinals because Zonovan Knight technically had the most snaps. D Marcato played the best and had the most carries. I would say that it's probably D Marcato that you would want to start, but it is more of like a I don't want to start any of them because this is a good rushing defense and a good defense overall and they're on the road in Seattle. It's a very difficult place to play. I just wouldn't expect much from the Cardinals running backs and I wouldn't expect much from Jacobe Brassette and the offense in general. But Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride got to be out there for you given their target shares and whatnot. If you need a streaming tight end, I think AJ Barer's not a terrible option. Streaming defense Seattle not a bad option. Nor is Jason Meyers the kicker.
Los Angeles Rams taking on the San Francisco 49ers. Just a rematch of the week five Thursday night football game which was crazy. M. Jones and the 49ers pull that one out. The Rams are four and a half point road favorites in this game. So Vegas not giving San Francisco too much respect here because M. Jones probably going to start again. Brock Pury limited in practice. It does sound like he's not quite ready to make his return from that toe injury. 49 and a half point overunder right now which is one of the highest on the slate. The second highest the pace of play second highest on the slate. The Rams DVOA advantage second highest on the slate.
I mean it goes without saying that you're starting Stafford, you're starting Kairen, you're starting Puka Nakua, you're starting Devonte Adams. Those are all pretty straightforward. Best matchup on the field definitely Kairen Williams in this game. We saw what he did 10 plus targets in this matchup last time they played. Christian McAffrey, horrendous matchup in this game. He does not have a good matchup and I do think that it's possible he has a dud in this one, but for the most part he's going to be every week starter. He's one of the best running backs in fantasy. You guys know that. Uh Jawan Jennings pretty good starter in this game. If you guys need a flex play, I think he's not a bad one. His routes, his targets, and all that stuff have been up since he's been really banged up the last couple of games. I do think he should probably have a decent game in this one. Kendrick Bourne, if you guys remember last time these two teams played, had 150 yards against this team. And M. Jones and him had a mindmeld like nobody's business against this team. So, I do think if you need a flex option, he's not a bad one. George KD, of course, going to be in your lineup as an every week starter. And both kickers, I think, are usable options in this game given that this is a high overunder and and both of these teams like to settle for field goals in the red zone and that kind of thing.
The Rams are number one in EPA per play as a defense. Um, and their only blip on the radar really was that monster performance by the 49ers in that Thursday night game in week five. If you guys recall, Kendrick Bourne, 150 yards in that game, 32 and a half receiving yards is his higher or lower here. I like him to go higher than that. If you guys do need some dumpster dive plays, this is a good game environment for it. Kendrick Bourne being one of them. Blake Corm being another if you need to start another running back. Brian Robinson maybe even being another one if you needed to start another running back. There's a couple of guys you could even throw 22 Atwell or Tyler Higgby out there if you absolutely had to.
Detroit Lions taking on the Washington Commanders. The final 4 PM game here. The Lions are eight-point road favorites. The Commanders will be without Jane Daniels, who isn't done for the season by the sounds of it cuz they had a report today that he dislocated his elbow, but it doesn't need to be surgically repaired. So maybe he's not even going to get put on IR. Don't exactly know. If I were the Commanders, I would just wipe my ass with the season because it's probably over. 49 a half points is the overunder in this game. A lot of that being charged to the Detroit Lions at 29 or 28.75 implied points. Their DBOA advantage is top five on the slate.
This game to me just screams Jir Gibbs, David Montgomery rush all over this team because this is a team that's will is kind of broken right now. We just saw the Seahawks beat the daylights out of them on Sunday Night Football. Jared Goff, excellent matchup. I do think he might just get sniped on all the touchdowns by the running backs. I think Gibbs could rush two or three touchdowns in. Montgomery could rush two touchdowns in sit uh Jaka Crosky Merritt. He has just been absolutely awful the last month. Ammon Rush St. Brown and Jameson Williams definitely in your lineup given the implied total here. Debo Samuel, given that Terry McLaren is out and he's getting the targets he's getting, he can definitely be in your lineup. Sam Laora has been awesome as of late, too. So, he can be in your lineup. Zack Z, if you guys need a streaming tight end, is not a terrible option. And then the Detroit Lions defense and kicker both in play per PFF. The Commander defense is 31st in red zone rushing success rate. Two opposing running backs allowed. Like I just said, this game screams. Two plus touchdowns for Jir Gibbs, two plus touchdowns for Damon Montgomery. This is a 45-10 stomping by the Detroit Lions waiting to happen. And I do think it'll come at the hands of the running uh the running game. So if you have to play Montgomery or Gibbs, RIP to you because I think this is going to be a monster game from the run game of the Detroit Lions.
Uh Los Angeles Chargers taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chargers are three-point home favorites in this game. Basically a neutral sight pick them between these two teams. They're both kind of evenly matched. The overunder 45 points. Uh pace of play is 28 and a half uh 28.8, sorry, which is fifth highest on the slate. Both of these offenses do have slight advantages or maybe slight disadvantage in Pittsburgh's case of the opposing defense.
This will be an interesting Sunday night football game because uh Justin Herbert and Aaron Rogers both very talented quarterbacks. The run games are both kind of hampered to some degree, but I do think Jaylen Warren still a great start in this one. Kamani Vidal, man, like what the hell was that? Last week I had him as a top 12 running back against the Titans defense and he finished with three fantasy points and this Steelers defense just wiped the floor with Jonathan Taylor last week in the back field constantly. He couldn't get anything going and that is, you know, basically the leader for offensive player of the year right now. So, Kamani Vidal, I'd be really worried about starting and that's why I'm kind of hesitating on this decision between him and Walker in the Flock League, but I do think the pass game is how you want to play this for the Chargers. Lad Mani has been really solid at commanding targets. Quinton Johnson, of course, creating big plays. Keenan Allen right now is unstartable. Even in this matchup, he is not getting the routes. Trey Harris is factoring in. Aronda Gatson, of course, is the biggest factor here in his emergence and he's going to be in your lineup. But Keenan Allen can't be out there for you. Lad Mcconkey, Quinton Johnson, Quint, and Aronda Gatsson. and the starters at the pass catchers there for the Chargers and Justin Herbert definitely a good streaming quarterback. DK Mechaf given his target share is probably out there for you guys. Dicker and Boswell, two of the best kickers in fantasy football definitely also out there for you.
The stat of the game here, Chargers are the second highest leading pass rate over expected team in the NFL, meaning they're passing the ball way more often than they are expected to. And the Steelers defense is 28th in pass rate over expected allowed, meaning they usually have teams throw on them. And I do think that that's why Kamani Vidal is not going to be that great of a play this week and why I do think Justin Herbert, Lad Mccon, Quint Johnson, and Nonda Gatson are great plays this week. So I do think this one could go through the passing game for the Chargers. Keep in mind, too, like Joe Alt is out for the season. Like this is it's just going to be a tough time running the football. The Chargers are already currently, by the way, 32nd in run blocking according to PFF.
Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles are actually favored on the road here. this one. Like I literally had to look this up and I'm going to do it again because I just don't buy this line. Like I really don't get it. The Eagles are on the road. The line has moved since the two and a half. It is now one and a half. But still, how the hell are the Eagles favored by two and a half or one and a half on the road in Lambeau Field? I just I just don't buy this. So over under 45 points. I just I just don't really get this. I think that the Packers should be like one point favorites or something like that. Um, so if you guys are picking this game, then I do think the Packers plus one and a half or plus two and a half, whatever you can get them at, are probably pretty good.
Jaylen Herz's going to be in your lineup. Saquon Barkley going to be in your lineup. AJ Brown, Devonte Smith going to be in your lineup. And Dallas Goddard are going to be in your lineup. Pretty straightforward. Best matchup on the field though is Dallas Goddard. And also too, we should see AJ Brown and Dvonte Smith have a decent matchup, but I I'll talk about that in the stat of the game a little bit more. Josh Shakeup's going to be in your lineup for the Packers. If you need a streaming quarterback, Jordan Love is a decent option. Romeo Dobs basically an every week starter at this point given the injury to Tucker Craft. He's got to be out there for you. And if you need a flex option and a deeper play in this game, I think that Christian Watson's a decent one. We'll see what's going on with Matthew Golden's health, but as of right now, Christian Watson seems to be second in the pecking order. We'll see what happens around that. Like, does Luke Musgrave emerge at tight end? Does Jaden Reed come back over the next couple of weeks, which it sounds like he's going to over the next two, three weeks or so. He should be back pretty soon.
Stat of the game here, and this is why I kind of alluded to this. The Packers are a runfunnel. They're number one in the NFL at limiting explosive passes. They're number three in the NFL in air yards per pass allowed. So, Devonte Smith, AJ Brown getting loose for a long touchdown. Probably not going to happen in this game. This has to be a game though where Saquon Barkley takes advantage of their 16th ranked rushing EPA. We just saw Rico Dattle run it all over them last week. And their 20th ranked success rate. The exact same game plan applies to Josh Jacobs and the Packers. the defense of the Philadelphia Eagles can't you can't pass deep against them. They're basically just a keep everything in front of them defense make you run the football. So I think Josh Shakobs and Saquon Barkley unfortunately for me because Mason has both of them are going to have a lot of carries and a lot of fantasy points in this game.
The matchups that matter entry is complete. We bid five picks. If you guys want to tail these of course you can go ahead and do that. I'm going to do a flex entry meaning I only need four out of five to end up hitting. Everyone who signs up on Underdog right now can also get an Aaron Rogers gimme pick for the Monday night game, plus $100 in bonus funds on their first $5 play. And of course, make sure to use our promo code FSE to get started. That'll be linked down below in the pin comment to ride with us.
So, into the streamers we go. Streaming quarterbacks. Sam Donald versus the Arizona Cardinals. He's pretty widely rostered, but if he's available, he's one of the best available out there. Justin Fields versus the Cleveland Browns. Again, because he runs, he's always going to be a good streamer. JJ McCarthy, same thing. because he runs. He's a good streamer and I do think it's a great matchup for him versus the Baltimore Ravens. Bryce Young and Michael Penn worse streamers obviously than those guys. Definitely worse. But if you are desperate and you need a streaming option, Bryce Young given the matchup is a pretty good one. And Michael Penn also given the game environment is a pretty good one there.
Streaming tight ends, we have Coloulston Love versus the Giants. Not really a streamer, but he shouldn't be available in as many leagues as he is. So definitely go pick up Coloulston Lovelin. He was the best waiver ad by far of any uh player this week. Uh David Andoku given the Harold Fannon injury is going to jump all the way up to a top streaming tight end this week if Fannon is out. Even if Fannon is active, if he's dealing with a hamstring pull, I think injoku is one of the top streamers on the slate. Zack Z versus the Lions. Positive game script for the Commanders, they're going to have to throw the ball. I could see him catching seven, eight passes in that game. Theo Johnson at the Chicago Bears, really good matchup for him. He's widely available. Good game environment as well. Jawan Johnson without Rasheed Shahed there, I do think he will catch a lot of passes in that game.
Moving into defenses and kickers here. Denver already played. They were my number one defense. They had a monster game, so obviously great news for them. Houston's a great defensive play this week. They just have an awesome defense and Trevor Lawrence is without a lot of weapons. Seattle versus Arizona also a really good defensive play this week. Los Angeles Rams versus the 49ers. Detroit Lions at the Washington Commanders. Buffalo at Miami. Cleveland at New York. Carolina versus New Orleans. Uh Jacksonville and Houston in that same game. Tampa Bay versus New England. And also honorable mention to the Ravens defense versus the Vikings just because the Broncos played yesterday. So that'll give you a 10th defense if you needed one.
Top five kickers, we have Chase Mclofflin, Cameron Dicker, Michael Badgley, Chris Boswell, and Jake Bates. Ky Fairborn, who's currently injured right now, so if he ends up being out, I'll give you some extras in a second. Versus Jacksonville, assuming he plays. Eddie Pinero, Kyro Santos, Tyler Loop, and Jason Meyers. If Fairburn is out, Bills Matt Prader and my number 12 and 13 are both in the same game. the Packers kicker Brandon McManis and the Eagles kicker Jake Elliott. That's kind of like my top 13 kickers or so. Um, but yeah, that's Matchups that matter. That is the week 10 slate. Hopefully I helped you guys start your fantasy football lineup, set your fantasy football lineups. I mean, if you guys do have any input on my own start decision, Kamani Vidal versus the Steelers, Kenneth Walker versus the Cardinals. I'm in a bit of a conundrum here. I think I'm going to end up going Walker based on all the research I've done on the slate and what kind and whatnot. But let me know what you guys think down below and give me some real reasons or some gut takes or whatever behind that reasoning. Leave that down below in the comments.
Again, if you guys want to tail our pick a, you can tail that down below in the pin comment. If you guys want some extra help, team reviews, trade questions, start set questions, head on over to flockfantasy.com, use the promo code FSE. If you're a site subscriber, you get discounts on that stuff. Also, if you're a site subscriber, you do get some free vouchers when you sign up either for an annual package or a season pass or whatever. So, you can get some free questions answered that way. And if you are an annual right now, you can get a free team review which we do live on the channel that you guys can definitely check out as well. So if that interests you, link down below in the pin comment for all of that stuff. But with that being said, peace out and I'll talk to you soon.