Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, October 31, 2025, facing a crypto market that is a little bit green. It's recovering well since yesterday. So yes, it corrected since Monday. I need to stop going on business trips like this because the markets correct quite often. It's not very, very nice. Now I'm back, it's good, it's going back into the green. It's nice if we take a little look at the stock markets, they are a little less pretty. So this morning in the news video, I talked to you a bit about everything that happened. There is big geopolitical news between China and the United States. There is macroeconomic news, central banks, interest rate cuts, end of quantitative tightening. We are hoping for quantitative easing to arrive. There is microeconomic news. Many quarterly earnings reports came out this week with big tech companies reporting. So it's really not bad. Next week, we will also have a very busy week in terms of microeconomics. We will look at that. So, there is plenty to make roller coasters on all sides with good news, bad news, good news, good news, bad news. The stock market is also quite shaken up. You see the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, it's been red, green. It opened up, now it's correcting. Well, everyone is a bit shaken up. The crypto market, it's even more shaken up because it's more volatile, it's smaller than the traditional market. So it's less capitalized, so there's a way to have ups and downs a bit more easily.
And on top of that, the ETFs are not on our side. Yesterday there were $488 million in Bitcoin sales. The day before yesterday, there were $470 million. Only on Monday and Tuesday were there $150 and $200 million in Bitcoin purchases by US ETFs. And then unfortunately on Wednesday and Thursday, we had almost $1 billion in sales in 2 days. So it's not great for Ethereum. Monday and Tuesday were not too bad but unfortunately Wednesday and Thursday, well it's less violent than Bitcoin. The market has returned to fear because we had a surge towards $106,000 despite good news and bad news. So I saw some comments, I read all the comments on the channel, I can't reply but I read all your comments. I know some people are saying it's not possible, how come we have good news, we had the interest rate cut. We have the end of quantitative tightening, that is to say balance sheet reduction, the central bank is going to finish. It will perhaps press the magic button a little to buy some treasury bonds. Well, there is still good news, the end of the trade war, well, we can't say the end of the trade war between Trump and China because it's just an agreement, a slight reduction in tariffs, a one-year postponement, things like that. So it's not like a big victory, everything is fine, we're going back to how it was. We're not going back to how it was, there are still tensions if you want. So that's why investors are also a bit on their guard, you see, between China and the United States, it can flare up again at any moment. They just found an agreement like "Okay, I won't bother you too much to supply you with the material you need for your technology, and you won't bother me too much and you'll supply me with some stuff for my tech equipment, you see, that's a bit what's going on between China and the United States right now. So we feel that yes, there is good news but still some tensions.
Now, on the interest rate cut, there was clearly a "sell the news" event, you see. It wasn't very pretty. Same as last month. Rate cut, boom, sell the news. So, we could have had a market pushing up with rate cuts, too great, end of QT. Yeah, too great, trade tariffs easing, too great. Finally, no, the markets, investors remain worried. So, we see for now that altcoins are still holding the 200-day moving average. Now, that's very good. It's very good news to hold it. We understand that it only takes one red candle breaking this 200-day moving average here around $72 billion and things will look grim. We were rejected at the 50 RSI. The bulls who had regained some momentum last Sunday are starting to tire here. Well, it doesn't look great. However, for now, in terms of structure, we are still here on a small ascending channel that we will call the small B with, you see, higher lows. Because anyway, this low here did not break the previous low. You see this one here, we did not break the previous low. So as I told you on Monday before leaving, unfortunately, being unable to make videos here for 3 days, it's that we expect a bearish wave. Okay? A clear wave. And unfortunately, well, as of Monday, boom. Is this the C wave? To increase the probability of wave C by saying, well, small A, small B, and boom, the small C, we would need to start breaking the lows. If we start breaking the first low, we'll say "Ah, this strongly increases the probability of making the famous wave C of this structure, okay? This small ABC. However, as long as we don't break the lows, we are still in the AB wave. That is to say, well, simply the AB wave which is still zigzagging, playing around. So, we can very well have altcoins pushing up again, even going higher. It would be really cool to break this high. As long as we don't break this small level, I'm going to put, you see, hop, a small line. As long as we don't break this level, we are still potentially in wave B, which is an upward wave. Okay? Which is a wave B making higher lows and higher highs. So, we can very well have a wave pushing up with altcoins, well, gaining for example a small +10%. It remains very possible to have that. Now, if we see the breaking of this low, it won't be good, it would mean we are breaking the 200-day moving average and we are heading for wave C with A, B here in three parts. Boom! The C which will go here. The C can dip a bit, it can do -10% or even a bit more. However, we also note that after making a wave A, a wave B, a wave C, boom, we go back up. Okay? Because all this, well all this, will be the big B of this A, of this B, and then boom, there will be a nice wave C going up, you see. And then we hope to break the old highs like that, we'll do a running small A, small B, a last C that will dip, and boom. There, it's the last one, after that it's good, it goes back up. Well, so for now, there is no reversal structure because the question is asked in terms of bear market. We don't have a structure that tells us it's starting. We're going to hell. There's none of that. Okay? So I follow the structures. If there was a structure that said "Hey guys, we're going down." No, no. Yes, there is a wave, there is a bearish wave, but it's to finish structures. When the last wave is a bearish wave, what happens next? Well, it's the explosion upwards. And on the contrary, when the last wave, the C, is an upward wave, what's next? It's the explosion downwards, and for now we expect the last waves to be bearish waves, you see? That is to say, bearish wave, then reversal upwards later. So for now, there is no bear market structure. After, maybe I can't see anything with my glasses, maybe I need to change my glasses. For now, I don't see any, to answer the question. Maybe it will happen later, you know, because I know some people say "It's good, the super market is over." Well, maybe it will happen. The bear market structure might form, but it might take quite a few weeks, maybe even a few months. For now, it's not there.
Well, a little love peak that broke its 200-day moving average yesterday around $109,300. It's not too serious, it likes to play with the 200-day moving average. It breaks it, it recovers it, it breaks it, it recovers it, it breaks it, it recovers it. Well, come on, stop playing with the moving average, that's enough now. Now, what can happen? But structure is king, you see, because I saw comments saying "Yes, good news. Why is the market correcting? Structure is queen rather, because structure is a girl, she's a queen. Structure is queen, simply. Remember that I had to be absent on Monday for 3 days, I told you be careful, there is a wave. It's even in the thumbnail, well, it's not me inventing it, it's the structure that lives. Okay, so small A, small B, boom, we expected a wave C that should not break $103,000. After making small A, small B, small C, well, since the last wave is C, which is a bearish wave, what's next? Phew! Explosion. So, can we explode directly in "all up" mode? Yes, clearly, the structure says so. Basically, there are two major scenarios. So, don't forget every morning on the VIP Telegram channel, which is free, open to everyone, link in the description. You just need to have an affiliated account with BigX. I explain everything in detail. I make 10-minute videos every morning, so don't hesitate to go and watch. So here, basically, there are two scenarios. The first scenario is the large structure with wave A. All of this is wave B. And boom, we are waiting for the large wave C, you see, bearish. And then you'll tell me "Oh my god, when we have this wave C, people will all shout bear market, it's over." Well, no, on the contrary. When the market offers you a regular flat like this, the next thing is a nuclear explosion upwards. Clearly, it's as usual, it's impulsive. Correction, here everyone is crying like at $48,000, many people are crying like at $74,000 after several months of when we were at $48,000 last year, it was 8-9 months of decline, many said bear market, we started again, we hit I don't know $80,000 something like that or no $100,000-110,000 then we fell back to around $14,000 after a few months with the last tariffs from Donald Trump, around $14,000, well, many people said it's over, we're all going to lose money, we're in a bear market. What happened? Record high $126,000. And here I tell you the same thing, if the market corrects with a corrective structure that is a regular flat, then boom, it's an explosion and Bitcoin will go back to $130,000-150,000. So for now, there is no bear market structure, it's rather a continuation structure upwards that Bitcoin is proposing. If it were proposing a bear market structure, I would tell you every day, be careful, it smells like a bear market. There is something, for now there isn't. Well, maybe it will appear in a few weeks, but for now it's not there. So, first scenario, small A, small B, boom, small C. This means that the big C has started, which can go towards $98,000, which is simply the low we made here. Well, it was early July. We're going to look for some liquidity below. Can it reach the gap on futures contracts at $91,970? Yes, it's possible to make a small size, a small B, boom, a small C like that because if it goes directly for the large structure and you want to draw a small thing to know a bit where it can go, well, these are parallel lines. Well, it's just to get a small idea, you see. Well, look, it can do something like this. So yes, it can go up to the gap if it wants to, you see. It can very well make that wave C that's lingering and boom, go for the gap. However, A, B, C, boom, it explodes upwards. Well, scenario number 1. So it's the big C that starts directly, and yes, it will shock everyone, everyone will cry, but it's just wave C to finish the structure, then it reverses. Second scenario, is that no, the structure will last a bit longer with a small A, a small B, a small C, all of this, boom, a rise, and later there will be the A, the B, and boom, the C. which will be less painful. So if all of a sudden, boom, boom, Bitcoin pushes up and goes above $116,000, it simply validates this small running flat. There, which we've been following since last week for a small rise. And then it will finish here for a kind of small A, a small B, a small C for a big thing like this for this big A, this big B, and boom, later the big C. Basically, wave B here, I think it might not be finished at all. And wave B of this big A, I think for me it's not finished, that wave B might last a bit longer. However, at some point, we will have to face a wave C, which will be the last one. That's the idea.
Well, at this level here, we see liquidity. So, there is a little bit to eat. Yes, up to $106,000. For now, there is mostly above, you see. So, it fits well with validating, why not, this small cute running flat first. Boom, to go eat. To go eat around $118,000, you see, around there. $118,000-$119,000, to eat everything, you see, in the short zone. Yum yum yum. Throughout the rise, you eat yum yum yum yum yum. You eat up to about $8 billion. And when you've eaten everything, well, it's good, you've finished validating the running flat, you've finished making the big B, then it's off. After that, you have big A, bam, you have big C which will take care of destroying everything below down to $100,000 and a bit below. Well, basically, a very possible scenario that follows the structure and also the futures on small Bitcoin.
Regarding Ethereum, it's the same thing, a bit less bullish. Why? Because it hasn't broken its last high at $4,300. It's serious. Let's say a small regular flat. Ethereum here. Well, for now, we have the structure. If it broke it, well, that's perfect. Did it break it? It hasn't broken it yet. Be careful, since it hasn't broken it, I'll explain to you why. Either it will make a rather rare structure, a contracting one, or it hasn't finished making the small dip. Ethereum. I'll explain to you why I'm putting it in yellow, so it will be visible. So Ethereum here, it hasn't broken its high here. It's a shame. So that means it has very high probabilities of going to break $3,177 to finish a small A, a small B, and boom, the small C makes a regular flat. It's not too serious because it will simply be a big B that will explode upwards to validate this regular flat and it will validate with this small wave A. You see, it will make a boom, something like this. Well, and then it will validate the larger structure which will eat the wave. So basically it's like Bitcoin, except that since it hasn't broken the high, it will go for the low. Whereas Bitcoin, since it broke this high, well, for now it won't go for it. It didn't go for $103,000. That's the idea, but the structure is the same, okay? So for now, Ethereum is doing well. Can it retest $3,677 now? Yes, it wouldn't be at all unreasonable for it to do that to properly validate this regular flat and then it will take off. So same as Bitcoin. Two solutions for the medium term here for the next few days, next week basically, if you want. It's either directly small A, small B, ah, the small C. So it's directly we all collapse on the ground to make the wave, you see, the wave can go for the gap at $2,853. It's really going to clean up, and then after that it pushes. Now, if you look at the liquidation clusters, you can see that there is mostly above, below there is a little bit. So if the structure really needs to be beautiful and clean, it must break towards $3,677. So $3,177 is here. So it will eat, it will turn around, do a bit of red to eat all that, and then boom, direction, go for above $4,300 to eat all that to validate this small regular flat. Oops, computer, the brush. Thank you, to validate this small regular flat. Small A, small B, small C. So boom, all this rise to eat them all. No, here to eat all that. And once validated, oops, I was on Solana, the crap, we don't care, they have the same structure, both of them. Well, and so Ethereum here. So, first thing, by then, hit $3,177, I'll do it again to eat all that and then validate the regular flat. Boom, explode here throughout this rise. Yum yum yum yum yum. You eat all that, you validate your regular flat, small A, small B, small C. Okay, validated. This makes this big C of this A, of this B, of this C, and then you validate that. The big A, boom, the big B, and bam. And the big C that hurts. There. So it's either directly the big C that hurts, or a little nibbling at the bottom, boom, explosion, and then the big C that hurts. And since Bitcoin and the others, they both have big liquidity clusters, big clusters, don't be surprised if it does, if it first validates Ethereum. Boom, for the small rise, and for Bitcoin too, validation of the small running flat. Well, however, be careful, it could put a little dip downwards before leaving, since Ethereum hasn't validated its small regular flat yet. It can make a contracting structure which is a bit rare, but why not? It has the right, but it's a bit rare, so I won't go with that, you see.
Solana, same thing for now, it's holding its 200-day moving average well, it's very good at $178. It's all very beautiful, you see. For now, it's very pretty. So, it was rejected without any respect by the 50 RSI. The bulls don't have much momentum anymore. Solana is also on a regular flat. Exactly the same as Bitcoin. Okay? So if it has to make a clean structure, it must come and break here, I'll take the small yellow line, it must come and break here $174 for an A, B, and the C which can be $174. So nibbling, yum yum yum, up to $174. Can it go there? Oh yes, there's not much to nibble. Well, it could, in order to validate a clean structure, and then when the small A, small B, small C is validated, all of this is a big B, then boom, it explodes to go above $211. So explosion, go above $211 to eat all that, there's about $7 billion, and then finish the small A, the small B, the small C, and then the last structure, the big A, all of this will be the big B, and boom. And the nuclear big C. That's the idea, exactly like Ethereum, that is to say, either now the departure of the nuclear C, and then everyone will cry, or we first validate the small, the small internal regular flat. So we go down a bit, boom, we do the rise, and then we simply validate the big one. However, you must not break the low here. If we start breaking the low of the violence we had, which was Friday the 10th. Well, it's directly the big C. If we start breaking all the lows, it's the big C. You see, you break here $170, boom, it's the big C that's starting. For Ethereum, you break here $3,468, well, it's the big C, clearly. Well, you don't need me to tell you, I think you know, Bitcoin starting to break $103,000. Well, it's the big C that's starting. If we break the old lows from 3 weeks ago, well, it's not the small internal structure.
And to finish, XRP, a bit like everyone else, but uglier. So it's the same here. XRP, small running flat, it looks more like Bitcoin. So it can gain, gain, it can fall to eat a bit lower here. However, it must not break this low. It's around $2.19. It needs to make a small A, a small B in three parts, the small C. So I wouldn't be surprised if we still have a bit of red, you see, to validate this small running flat like this. So it could nibble here, eat a bit up to $2.33, a bit of liquidity without breaking $2.19, and then make small A, small B, small C, boom, explosion upwards to eat all that, it's convenient, there's quite a bit to eat up to about $280 to validate, and at the end, there will be the nuclear C that will arrive to validate the last big structure. It needs to be validated properly, but after that it will be rather very, very pretty.
Alright, and to finish, a quick look at the stock market. So for now, I talked about it this morning, the quarterly results are very good for most big tech companies. The only problem is that some investors are not very happy that some big companies are investing so much money in AI. Some say, be careful, it's starting to smell bad. Well, after that, there was a mix of "sell the news" and investors are worried because between China and the US, well, okay, they made small agreements, but they are valid for one year and it's still tense. You see, everyone is trying to pull the rope in their own direction. Well, it doesn't smell too much of bullishness yet, the Fed saying they are ending QT. However, it's quite corrective. The past shows us that when the Fed finishes its QT, the act of reducing its balance sheet, of wanting to recover money it has injected into the markets, well, okay, it stops, but often it's a bit of a correction, a small "sell the news" event that happens, and it picks up again when the Fed officially announces or in advance the QE, which is really "I turn on the printing press, I create money and I buy everything that passes, all the bonds that the Treasury issues, you see." No, for now, the markets are not doing great. Especially since Powell said something on Wednesday that calmed everyone down, which is that well, we shouldn't expect an interest rate cut for December for now because the Fed governors are very, very undecided and they don't agree at all among themselves on whether to continue rate cuts or not. You see why? Because well, inflation continues to rise, it's around 3%. So some might say "No, inflation is fine, it's below expectations." Yes, but expectations, we can set them at 100%, 100% so that at least we're good. No, what are you talking about? Well, so expectations are still very high and we are below. Yes, but inflation continues to rise. So each time, we will raise expectations, inflation rises, we raise expectations, inflation rises. Each time, we'll say "No, it's fine, we're below expectations." Yes, okay. So we'll set expectations at 4% when inflation is at 3.9%, we'll say "Oh, it's fine, we're below expectations, huh. Inflation, when it's 10%, expectations will be at 10.5%, we'll say "Oh, it's fine, below expectations." So you understand, in the end, oh, it's fine, well, no, it's not fine. Well, so inflation at 3% already, it's not fine. Clearly, and Powell is saying well, rate cuts, it's going to be tough. Well, welcome to stagflation. On one hand, it's collapsing, on the other hand, prices are skyrocketing. You put gasoline to put out a fire on one side, you light it on the other, you see. So here, stagflation, it's the worst for poor Powell. Well, so for now, the markets are not looking very good, you see. So, we also reached a new record on the S&P 500, it was on Wednesday. After Jerome Powell's speech, boom, a bit of red. Yesterday, Thursday, boom, a bit of red. Today, it opened up, you see. And boom, it's tough. So for now, investors are, you see, they are not very enthusiastic, for now it smells a bit like selling. So look even at the Asian markets. China, bam, Hong Kong, bim, except Japan. Okay, Japan is a bit of an exception because the central bank is very different from all other central banks. So they have their economy really separate. Europe, here, boom, the big red candle, the rose is wilting. The Gulf also took its big hit after hitting around $3,000-$4,000, almost $400, right? Well, for now, a small correction, it's not serious at all. Will Bitcoin benefit from the correction in gold? If the correction in gold continues, it could remain a possibility. We've already seen that. I'll share other analyses in this direction too. For now, crypto stocks are not breathing much bullishness. Coinbase is a bit in the green, MicroStrategy is a bit in the green, but it's always a downward trend. Miners are still in a nice downward trend with ugly red candles like today on Riot Platforms and others, well, it's not very appealing. We have treasury bonds for now. Well, it's a bit undecided, like "Okay, we have an interest rate cut, so maybe we should buy bonds now that yields are a bit higher." However, he said that well, he will stop the potential rate cuts, we shouldn't expect them for December. So maybe we're not in a hurry. After they said well, they will, he finished his QT, so well, he won't renew the bonds, that is to say, quite a few bonds will mature, prices will drop a bit. Well, this whole mechanism with the Fed is a bit complicated. And so, we've complicated things, what are investors doing? They are de-risking a bit. They sell a small part, you see, of their assets and they wait to see a bit more data, a bit more visibility. That's what happens very often and that's what we clearly see. And the dollar, on top of that, is regaining some strength since the interest rate cut, a bit of a "sell the news" since Wednesday, the announced rate cut. Why is the dollar pushing up when we've put a rate cut in our minds? Well, simply because it was priced in advance. Everything is priced in advance. The market, as soon as it starts to have a little rumor, it prices in a semblance of a rumor, a puff, a little puff of rumor, but the market prices it directly, it doesn't wait. And so here, what is the market pricing? The fact that Powell said well, don't expect too much of a rate cut for December. And so the dollar says what? No rate cut for December? Ah, well, I'm regaining a bit of strength, you see. That's what's happening. Well, so there you have it friends, for this little update. I hope I've taught you some interesting things. We'll meet again tomorrow. I send you kisses. Have a good evening, see you tomorrow. Bye bye.