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If you were a betting man—and you can tell me if you are—where do you think we'll be with the Russia-Ukraine war in six months to a year? I'd bet—and I'm not certain, this is just my best guess—that a year from now you'll have a frozen conflict. Ukraine will be a dysfunctional rump state, the West will still be cautiously talking about bringing Ukraine into NATO, and the Russians will have taken somewhere between 30 and 40% of Ukrainian territory, annexing it into a greater Russia. I think this is a total disaster for Ukraine, and remarkably foolish of us to not shut this war down long ago to minimize Ukrainian territorial losses. But that ship has sailed, and it looks worse and worse for Ukrainians and the West, because this will be a devastating defeat for NATO if it ends as I think it will.
Many think that if Putin gets his blood up and wins in Ukraine, he won't stop there; he has bigger ambitions to invade other countries. Do you think that's a possibility? Not at all. He's never indicated that interest, and he'd be foolish to try. I believe he won't take all of Ukraine because he understands the Western two-thirds is filled with ethnic Ukrainians who hate Russia. Conquering, occupying, and integrating that part of Ukraine would face fierce resistance. The same is true if he invaded the Baltics, Poland, or Romania. Putin is fully aware that occupying other countries is a prescription for disaster in the age of nationalism. Remember, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union occupied Eastern Europe, putting down insurrections in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968). They almost had to invade Poland three times, except the Polish Communist Party quelled the trouble. They also had huge problems with Yugoslavia, Albania, and Romania. The Soviets were up to their eyeballs in alligators in Eastern Europe because occupying other countries is difficult; you invariably run into resistance. I think Putin understands this and doesn't want to invade Eastern or Western Europe; moreover, he lacks the capability.
Look at how the Russians struggled to conquer eastern Ukraine. Does this look like the Wehrmacht in World War II? Does this look like an army that will roll over Ukraine, then Eastern Europe, and threaten Germany, France, or Britain? I don't think so. Mearsheimer's take is clear: Ukraine is losing, Russia is gaining ground, and NATO's strategy is crumbling. The West ignored every warning, refused diplomacy, and now Ukraine is paying the price. So what happens next? Does the West double down or finally face reality? Hit the like, subscribe, and comment; how does this war really end?
What if everything you've been told about the Ukraine war is wrong? What if NATO isn't winning, Ukraine isn't holding the line, and the real outcome is something Western leaders don't want you to hear? John Mearsheimer just laid out a brutal prediction, and if he's right, this war is ending in disaster. Look, Piers, there's no question that any time a country fights a war of attrition like we see in Ukraine, those countries will have trouble raising troops. Remember when Britain entered World War I in 1914 with an all-volunteer military? By 1916, they had to institute a draft because there weren't enough volunteers. The Russians are going to great lengths to raise manpower by offering enticements. This is just how wars are fought. There's no evidence the Russians aren't producing enough troops; all evidence is to the contrary. They're having much success raising and deploying Russian troops in Ukraine. But my point is, if you can get additional troops from another country, like North Korea, you'd be foolish not to take them. It's common sense. So I think the fact that the Russians are relying to a small—and I choose my words carefully here—small extent on North Korean troops matters little. The Russians are doing quite well on the battlefield; it's the Ukrainians who, by almost all accounts, are in truly deep trouble. That trouble could be compounded by the fact that the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced he would pause foreign aid grants for 90 days. President Zelensky clarified that military aid hasn't been stopped, but it's unclear whether humanitarian aid has been pulled, and Ukraine relies on the US for 40% of its military needs. We don't know how this ends, but if you were a betting man—and you can tell me if you are—where do you think we'll be with the Russia-Ukraine war in six months to a year? I'd bet—and I'm not certain, this is just my best guess—that a year from now you'll have a frozen conflict.