Transcription
Hey everybody, it's Ron from Pick Dogs and this is Ron's Rundown. We're going to go over the MLB game schedule for Saturday, September 13th, 2025.
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All right, here we go. Here are the games for Saturday Major League Baseball.
First up, we've got the Rays and the Cubs. We've got Drew Rasmussen and Colin Ray as the projected starters. Now, I do think the Rays have the pitching advantage in this game. I think that their starter is superior and Drew Rasmussen has been their ace-level starter this year. Very consistent option for Tampa Bay. And I think they have the better bullpen to go with it. The question becomes, is their offense going to be good enough? We know Tampa's offense for the most part in 2025 has not been the strongest, but when you look at these two teams in the last 30 days, Chicago's ranked 23rd in Major League Baseball in team OPS against righties, while the Rays are actually in the top 10. And you could point to the fact they play at a very hitter-friendly ballpark at Wrigley Field for their home games. But then you look at the numbers against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month. They're still right around the Cubs in the last month. They're, you know, 700 team OPS with actually really good power numbers, 180 isolated power. So, I think the Rays can compete offensively. And like I said, I think they have a pretty significant pitching advantage in this game. So, I'm going to side with Tampa Bay at a solid price on the money line.
Next up, we've got the Orioles and the Blue Jays. We got Tomoyuki Sugano and Max Scherzer as the starters. Now, Scherzer certainly not in the best form right now. He's given up four-plus runs in his last three games, but Sugano's also struggled recently. He gave up in his last game, three home runs in three innings, seven base hits, only one strikeout. And that was a five to two Orioles loss. The Orioles have now lost his last three games after he was once one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball. You know, the Orioles are struggling now in his starts. And this is a Blue Jays team that has a much better offense in this series, in this matchup against right-handed pitching, against left-handed pitching. So, even if Scherzer struggles, I think Sugano struggles, and I think the Blue Jays end up winning this game. I lean towards the over and the Blue Jays on the money line.
Next up, we've got the Pirates and the Nationals. We've got Mr. Andrew Alvarez and Bubba Chandler as the starters. Originally, we thought Alvarez was going to go on Friday, and he's moved to Saturday here. I talked about how I do expect regression, but so far, I mean, he's pitching well. He's got nine and two-thirds innings of sub-two ERA baseball and two victories for the Nationals. And I think in a tougher matchup, I wouldn't love his chances and especially this Nationals bullpen as well. But against a Pirates team that's been dreadful offensively on the road this season and as of late. And I think that Alvarez could put together a decent outing. And I think also Bubba Chandler bounces back from his really tough spot against the Brewers, giving up nine earned runs in his last game, two and two-thirds in a ten to two Brewers win. Now, that's a Brewers team we know has been one of the best teams in baseball, one of the stronger offenses in the National League. But we've also seen Bubba Chandler has some really good strikeout stuff. I think he has a lot of potential in this rotation going forward, and I think he bounces back in this game against a not-so-great Nationals team. So, give me the under in the first five innings between the Pirates and the Nationals.
Next up, we've got the Tigers and the Marlins. We've got Charlie Morton and Jansen Junk as the starters. I like the over in this game. In fact, I like a good amount of totals for this Saturday card. This is a game where, you know, Charlie Morton has struggled this season. He's not in good form right now. Even the Marlins, who have not been the strongest offense in the month of September, should be able to get to him for a few runs. On the other side, you've got Jansen Junk, who has regressed in a big way up against a tough Tigers lineup. You've got a not-so-great Marlins bullpen. I see a lot of runs early and late, so give me the over in Tigers Marlins.
Next up, we've got the Yankees and the Red Sox. We got Gerrit Cole and Max Fried as the starters. We've seen this pitching matchup three times now. It's going to be the third start between Fried and Cole. The first game was at Fenway Park. It was a two-nothing Red Sox win. Cole went seven scoreless with eight strikeouts. Fried went seven two-run innings with nine strikeouts. So, both starting pitchers were excellent in those games. Then you look at the next start against the at Yankee Stadium August 22nd. So, more recently, six innings of scoreless baseball with seven strikeouts for Fried. It was a seven-inning shutout from Gerrit Cole. Five strikeouts in a one-nothing Red Sox win. So, two-nothing and one-nothing Red Sox victories in his pitching matchup. We've seen some pitcher's duels. Both of these pitchers have great numbers against the current opposition. I've got to roll with the under in Yankees Red Sox.
Next up, we've got the Rangers and the Mets. We've got Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat as the starters. Patrick Corbin was a member of the Nationals for the longest time, and he faced this Mets roster quite a bit. 283 plate appearances against this current Mets lineup. And you look at the numbers, a pretty good expected batting average and expected slugging percentage for the Mets against Corbin. And we've seen them hit lefties very well in the last 30 days. They've got some of the best numbers in Major League Baseball. They are top five in team OPS and isolated power. Strikeout rate is a little bit steep, but we don't necessarily worry about that with Corbin on the mound. And even on Thursday where the Mets lost to the Phillies, they were still able to get to Lazardo in that first inning for four runs. I think they get to Corbin, but I didn't necessarily love the spot for Brandon Sproat. His second start at the major league level. I thought he was okay in his major league debut. Quality start on paper, seven strikeouts, but that was against the Cincinnati Reds. They did have four walks in that game as well. I think the Rangers, who have been playing some of their best baseball this season in the month of September, can get to Sproat for a few runs. And I think we go over the total in Rangers Mets.
Next up, we've got the White Sox and the Guardians. We've got Davis Martin and Parker Messick as the starters. Parker Messick's last two games, I mean, overall so far at the major league level, he's pitching well. 23 and a third innings, a sub-two ERA, but I have big-time regression concerns as the missed bats are starting to dwindle. Nine and two-thirds his last two games, only six strikeouts, a home run, a couple of walks, and 17 base hits. A lot of hits given up from Messick in the last two games against teams in the Red Sox and Rays that are really struggling against left-handed pitching in the last month. The White Sox, we've talked about it all season, very low strikeout rate against lefties. They put the ball in play quite a bit. For a guy like Messick who's giving up a ton of base hits, that could be a problem. And I think he's in trouble in this game. I think the White Sox get to him. Davis Martin, I think, will be good enough against a weak Guardians lineup. Give me the White Sox at a great price in this game.
Next up, we've got the Royals and the Phillies. We got Ryan Feltner and Taijuan Walker as the starters. You know, I'd mentioned many times I wasn't necessarily the biggest fan of Ryan Feltner's game, but I was willing to back him in that last start against the Guardians, and I paid the price. He gave up eight earned runs in three and a third innings. It was a ten to two Guardians win. I think he struggles again in this spot against a really tough Phillies lineup, but I think Taijuan Walker can certainly give up a few runs as well, even against a team like KC. I like another over in this spot. I told you I like the totals on Saturday. Give me the over.
Next up, we've got the Diamondbacks and the Twins. We got Ryan Nelson and Joe Ryan as the starters. It's a tough game here. You know, these are two, you know, pretty good starting pitching options that have been a bit inconsistent, especially Joe Ryan as of late, who struggled in his last game, but I do trust him a lot more at Target Field. And, you know, same thing goes for Ryan Nelson. I trust him a lot more at Chase Field. He's on the road for this game where he's got an ERA above four on the season. I think the Twins can get to him. And even if this is a close game late, and I know the Twins made a lot of deals at the deadline, you know, to give up a lot of their relievers, but I still think they have the better bullpen in this matchup. I think Arizona has the weakest bullpen in Major League Baseball. So, if this is a close game late, I would side with Minnesota. I'm going to lean towards the Twins in this game, but just very slightly.
Next up, we've got the Braves and the Astros. We got Hunter Brown and Bryce Elder as the starters. Now, listen, I've got to admit, Bryce Elder has not pitched well overall this season with an ERA above five, but he's been pitching really well as of late. His last four starts, some of his best baseball really in his career. He's given up two runs or fewer in four straight games. And he faced some tough lineups along the way. The Mets, the Phillies. I know the Cubs are struggling recently, but still a winning team. You know, thirteen and a third innings of consecutive one earned run baseball against the Cubs and back-to-back Braves wins in the home and home series in Atlanta and Chicago. And you look at Elder in this matchup against an Astros team that's not been consistent offensively in the last month. Their numbers against right-handed pitching are some of the worst in Major League Baseball. Hunter Brown has pitched well, but the Astros, because of their offensive struggles, have not always backed him up. They've lost three of his last four games, even though he's given up two runs or fewer, two earned runs or fewer in all five of his last five starts. So, I'm going to side with the Braves at a really good price. I haven't backed Bryce Elder too much over the years. I'll take him in this spot.
Next up, we've got the Cardinals and the Brewers. We've got Sonny Gray and Brandon Woodruff as the starters. I think it's a lopsided pitching matchup in favor of Milwaukee. You know, Sonny Gray was a great option at the beginning of the season for St. Louis, but it's no longer the case in the second half of the year. He has really struggled down the stretch. He's given up ten earned runs and three home runs his last two games combined. His numbers on the road have been miserable this season with an ERA above five. And then you look at his numbers against Milwaukee, ten and a third innings, a 7.84 ERA. I think the Brewers win this game comfortably on the run line.
Next up, it's the Dodgers and the Giants. We got Clayton Kershaw and Kaiwi Tang as the projected starters. It is a tough one. I am going to side with the Dodgers in this game as even though Kershaw had that one bad outing against the Pirates, he's been able to bounce back. He was able to bounce back in that next game and overall has been really sharp for the Dodgers in the second half of the year. Obviously, he's faced this Giants lineup quite a bit over the seasons, this Giants team as well. And he's got great numbers against them. 121 played appearances, 26% strikeout rate, low walk rate, 224 xBA, 210 expected batting average. Tang is I think the weakest link in this Giants rotation. I've got to side with the Dodgers in this one. Even though this is a must-win game for San Francisco, hey, the Dodgers are still trying to win the division. So, both teams will be very motivated. I think the Dodgers win this game.
Next up, the Angels and the Mariners. Brian Woo and Mitch Ferris are the projected starters. Ferris actually pitched pretty well against a tough A's lineup in his last game, but he still gave up two home runs and he gives up a lot of sharp contact. He didn't really have the best numbers at the minor league level. I think he struggles in this one. I think Brian Woo, it doesn't get much better for the Mariners in their rotation than Woo, who's been consistent. He's been pitching so well at T-Mobile Park. Made one mistake in that last game against the Cardinals against Alec Burleson and he paid the price, you know, a two-run home run in that bat, but ended up being a Mariners win and run line cover. They backed him up. It was a quality start for Woo. He's a quality start machine. I think he gets another one in this game and I think he racks up the strikeouts against an Angels team that's been striking out left and right in the last month. Give me the Mariners on the run line.
And the final game to talk about for the Saturday card in Major League Baseball, it's the Reds and the Athletics. We got Hunter Greene and Luis Severino as the starters. Now, I do think that Greene is the better starting pitching option obviously in this matchup, but we've seen, you know, we saw Gerrit Cole pitch really well against the A's recently. We saw Triston McKenzie struggle against the A's in this stadium. So, it's been hit or miss for these ace-level starters in a very, very hitter-friendly ballpark. We know Luis Severino has struggled overall this season in this ballpark. But recently, he's been more competitive. We saw his last game at home. It was back on July 29th. It was a while ago because he suffered some injuries, but five innings, one run in a six to one Athletics win. And I think that if we can see five to six, two, maybe even three runs or fewer from Severino in this game against a Reds team, it's still not great offensively, I think it'll be enough because I think the A's can get to Hunter Greene for a home run or two. He's given up plenty this season. He gives up a lot of sharp contact. Now, he earned a ton of strikeouts. He's got great strikeout numbers. He had 12 of them in his last game against the Mets. But a couple of mistakes here and there could be the difference in a game where you've got a Cincinnati Reds offense I do not trust. A Cincinnati Reds bullpen I do not trust. Give me the Athletics in this one on the money line at a great price.
And that's it. Those are the games for Saturday in baseball. Hope you enjoyed this video. Again, if you're looking for my best bets, you can find those at the premium picks tab of pickdogs.com and there is a link in the description. As always, Ron Reali. Good luck.