Transcription
It looks like somewhere in the 140 to 200 range would be for this cycle. Certainly, we're going to see 25 30% pullbacks like for sure. Now, will we see 70 80% pullbacks? I think there's a good case for us not seeing that.
Micro Strategies price somewhere between 800 to,300 based on Bitcoin hitting 170. So, I said worst case 140, bull case 220. So if we put Bitcoin sort of in the middle 170 that puts Micro Strategy between 800 to,300 um you know basically you know 3 3x from here. So that's why Micro Strategy should go up faster than what Bitcoin does.
Mark Moss highlights the PI cycle top indicator often called the holy grail of Bitcoin timing tools due to its ironclad track record of accurately flagging cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. According to Moss, the next peak is unlikely to arrive this year. Instead, the indicator points to Q1 2027 as the probable cycle top. The projected high approximately $395,000.
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If I believe one BTC is one BTC and I've put my numbers, you mentioned this uh Bitcoin Mina um video. I said 1 million 2030, 14 million 2040, 44 million 2050. I think in those time frames, I'm not trying to think about this cycle, but let's answer the question. So, if we look at the data, we can sort of extrapolate what that means to us in the future. And we have a range. We have like a bare case and a bull case, right? So, the the most reliable indicator we've had so far is the PI indicator. So, what is it telling us? Number one, it's telling us it's not predicting at top until January of 2027. and it's putting the peak at 395,000. Now, this is what the cycle this is what it's telling us. It's been extremely accurate, the most accurate. It would mean that we would have to see Bitcoin sustain $200,000 for months to get to that level. All right, so that's what that's what the PI cycle says. 395 January 2027.
If we look at the MVRV ratio analysis, that's market price versus realized price. It's one of the most used indicators on you know onchain data. Uh what the MVRV is telling us on the the conservative case maybe call it the bare case is 140 and the bull case is 200. Now these are moving targets because if the these use you know momentum indicators and onchain data. So if for example we start seeing like let's say all these treasury companies that made these announcements over the last couple weeks all their buys start coming in in Q3 it's going to push this. So we can't it's hard for us to predict uh predict today but it looks like somewhere in the 140 to 200 range would be for this cycle.
Another way that we'd look at this and this is for my technical anal analysts out there. I don't put a lot of weight into TA but for those that do we use Fibonacci extensions right? So those are mathematical formulas that would set resistance and support levels. If we look at it from those, we can see 170 is the base case with 220 being like an aggressive upside. Uh, and if we look at all of those together, I mean, it's basically 140 to 220. I know it's a big range. People don't like that. Um, but but that's where that's where I'm kind of thinking, again, I'm trying to think of uh hope for the best, plan for the worst. I'm thinking like a 150. Uh, I don't want to set myself up for disappointment. So, I think somewhere in that range, but that's what the data is telling us.
I believe that a well-run treasury company should always trade multiple times to NAV, at least two to three times NAV. I think what happens is that's a Bitcoiner lens. And it's not Bitcoiners that are buying these, it's Tradfi. So, Tradfi is not trying to beat Bitcoin, they're just trying to beat inflation or the S&P 500. So I think what I'm calling escape velocity is when we get out of Bitcoiners buying it and Trady starts buying it. But let's think about Micro Strategy for a second. So they have 600,000 Bitcoin. Let's say that they grow that to 700,000 Bitcoin this cycle. Then we say, well, where will the price of Bitcoin be? Which I've already given you some examples. And then we look at what this MNAV premium could be. They have a 2 to three times historical multiplication. So that would put Micro Strategies price somewhere between 800 to,300 based on Bitcoin hitting 170. So I said worst case 140 up bull case 220. So if we put Bitcoin sort of in the middle 170 that puts Micro Strategy between 800 to,300 um you know basically you know 3 3x from here. So that's why Micro Strategy should go up faster than what Bitcoin does.
US government bond for the long bond and Bitcoin over the last five years. And over the last five years, Bitcoin has been a better risk adjusted, less risky investment than both the S&P 500 and the US government. Oh wow. Which is pretty amazing. But it's asymmetric to the upside. Now, to answer the question, um, one, there's always a downturn. There's never been an asset in the history of the world that moves up in a straight line or down in a straight line. So, of course, we're going to go up and down. We know Bitcoin typically has 25% draw downs that that's not a bare market for Bitcoin. Um so certainly we're going to see 25 30% pullbacks like for sure. Now will we see 70 80% pullbacks? I think there's a good case for us not seeing that. And the reason why I would say that is two things. Number one, let's go back to the 50-year cycle. So in the 50-year cycle, there's four distinct phases that we go through. So now we're in that frenzy phase. We have massive institutional and sovereign buying. Number one. Number two though, what we do with technology is to understand how fast the technology will reach adoption, full scale adoption, a color TV, a washing machine, an iPhone, etc. is we use something called an S-curve. So an S-curve basically tells us the time it takes to go from 0 to 10%. Is the same time it takes to go from 10 to 90%. So it goes into this parabolic part of the curve. That's right now. That's in the second part, the second phase of the four phases of the 50-year cycle. And so I think what we could see is we're as we enter the parabolic phase, it's much more asymmetric to the upside and it's muted to the downside. So we don't get the we don't get as uh we still get the big upside, but we get less of a downside. And one more reason why I also think that is that uh and I kind of hinted to earlier where potentially we could see the kagar hold or or accelerate from here is because what happens traditionally is that most of these financial assets that we see are typically started with capital venture capital first um then it goes into you know private equity capital whatever they're doing before preo etc. So they raise the big money up front and then they dump onto retail after they go public and then it's big checks first, little checks after, right? So you get the big checks, you get the big market cap, and then you get the little retail checks coming in after. And the little retail checks don't move the needle on the big market cap. But Bitcoin was started the opposite way, right? It was you and I buying in the in the early days. Now, I started buying in in 2015 was 300 bucks. And people go, "That's amazing. I wish I could have bought 300 bucks." But it was like risky to put a thousand bucks in back then, right? Now people are putting hundreds of billions in. And so what we saw with Bitcoin was the opposite. It was started with retail with small checks, $300 checks, $500 checks, thousands of dollar checks. And today now we have the billions, the sovereigns coming in, tens of billions, hundreds of billions. And so it's possible that because it worked the opposite way, now the big money is coming in and potentially KR could start to accelerate a little bit um and then eventually it'll dwindle back down. So um for those couple of reasons that I've given you, um I do think it's uh probable. I think it's probably my base case that we don't see the 70 80% draw downs of the past. Maybe it's more muted down to like a 50% level or something like that.
Moss emphasizes that over the past 5 years, Bitcoin has outperformed both the S&P 500 and US government long bonds on a riskadjusted basis. It's been less risky yet provided asymmetrically strong upside, a rare feat in financial assets. If this holds, we might only see deeper corrections of around 50%, not the extremes of earlier cycles.
Before I was a Bitcoiner, I was a gold bug. Yeah, I was I was standing behind Ron Paul um figuratively chanting end the Fed and I'm here for it. I'm in Bitcoin because I want to separate money and state. But of course, ending the Fed, but when I think about separating money from state, what I'm saying is I want to take away the state's ability to print money. Yes, of course the state's always going to need money, which is why I don't care if they use Bitcoin. I want to take away their ability to create money, but I also understand that getting rid of the Fed today would be disastrous. You can't just do that today. It's a process that we have to go through. And kind of going back to the Fed that we have today and being politically motivated, I think it's always politically motivated because the government has policies and so the Fed is supposed to help accommodate those policies. So, it's always somewhat politically motivated. Um, we are seeing it uh seemingly extremely motivated today and really this is Trump's MMO. If you go back to his first term, he constantly harped on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, lower rates, lower rates. He's he's a real estate guy. He he understands the benefit of having low rates. And so today, he's he's been very abusive, verbally abusive to to Jerome Powell, who he calls him too late, right? And all these other nicknames that he has. Um and so Jerome Pal probably to your point with the operation checkpoint has been um overly political, you know, in favor of the Biden administration. Um and potentially maybe even still being somewhat um you know, maybe working against the Trump administration, if you will, um when it seems like he should be more accommodative right now. Um so maybe Jerome Powell is being politically motivated to not work with the Trump administration. But then you would also say, well, the Trump is also trying to replace the Fed chair uh to work with his political favor. So, you know, I wouldn't say it's unprecedented. To answer your question, Nico, I think it's always been politically motivated. Um, you know, each of these min administrations have their own set of um policies they're trying to enact. The Biden administration apparently was trying to shut down cryptocurrency and our freedom to transact. Um, and the Trump administration wants to open that back up. Um, but yeah, it's not unprecedented.
In a world a wash with noise, Mark Moss invites us to look past hype-driven cycles and think in terms of data, discipline, and time through tools like the Pi, Cycletop, MVRV, and Fibonacci extensions. He outlines a plausible range for Bitcoin's peak, stretching from $140,000 to $220,000 in the near-term and potentially soaring to $395,000 by early 2027. Beyond price, the story unfolds through institutional money flows, risk adjusted return realities, and evolving monetary philosophies. Peace.