Transcription
Well, it's official. The Federal Reserve is bailing out the artificial intelligence market. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I I know. Big claim, but you're going to see exactly how what the Federal Reserve just announced is a complete bailout of the last leg holding up this economy from collapsing. And the market is already snuffing it out. Take a look at this. Gold up again 1.5% to almost 4,300. Silver up 4.6%. Copper up 23.
Now, why would copper, an industrial metal, and these safe havens against inflation such as gold and silver be rising? While at the same time, we're seeing a rise in the spread between the 2 and 10-year Treasury, making us more shockprone than nearly any other time over not just the last year, but frankly since 2021. Well, it might be because the market is sussing out that the Fed is running the money printer to bail out artificial intelligence to keep this market propped up. And that creates some really interesting investment ideas, but also risks for us.
See, what a lot of folks aren't talking about is that the Federal Reserve said the quiet part out loud yesterday, and I was surprised that we didn't actually get a lot of people talking about this. See JP Morgan, Bravo Bank, and I've got over here Goldman Sachs. All of them released their notes along with Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times. All of them released their notes. And all of them said, "Hey, you know, the Federal Reserve is going to be buying $40 billion per month through either Tommo or POMO, depending on, you know, the length of the bills that they're buying. We'll talk about that in just a moment." Which is interesting because then it makes you wonder, oh, okay, you know, that's that's just to create reserve liquidity. But why are they doing that? And that's the key that nobody is talking about.
Now, let me first explain a clarification on what we discussed yesterday regarding FOMO, SOMO, Tommo, and POMO. So, we know that the Fed yesterday announced they are going to start printing $40 billion per month to initiate their quote reserve management purchases. This turns the money printer on. Now, FOMO is fear of missing out. SOMO is sadness of having missed out. Tommo stands for temporary open market operations, which are more overnight operations or really short-term treasury bill purchases. Pomo is considered permanent open market operations. And it's possible the Fed might actually prefer POMO over Tomo. And we're going to explain exactly why in just a moment.
But first, all of the headlines are talking about $40 billion. But Goldman actually did this right. Goldman points out, folks, it's actually $60 billion because they're already reinvesting $20 billion a month of mortgage back securities rollover into treasuries. In English, cuz those are a lot of acronyms and fancy words. In English, the Fed is secretly increasing their balance sheet to the tune of $60 billion a month. Now, if they're doing that with four-week Treasury bills, it's basically temporary. It doesn't really matter. But if they're doing it with 52- week bills, which they could, they could actually be injecting permanent liquidity for the next year into the economy to the tune of $60 billion per month.
Now, why would the Federal Reserve do this? How does this have anything to do with bailing out AI? And how does this have anything to do with private credit and people like scam altman? Ah, it has everything to do with those. So let's understand first the guys or the the Fed is feeding us. Okay, the Fed is saying, "Hey, uh, hey guys, so, uh, between now and April, people have to pay their taxes, which means they're going to send money from their bank accounts to the Treasury General account, which in English means banks are going to have less cash. What do banks do with your cash? They lend it out. But if they don't have anymore, they can't lend it. And think about it, folks. Who wants to borrow that damn money? It's all part of the Ponzi. And this is not being like a doomsayer. The dollar's going to be around for a while. Eventually, currencies will collapse and eventually the dollar collapse. This is why I like real assets like real estate or stocks or whatever. But in the near term, the Fed, and it took me a while, you know, I sat down for probably six hours yesterday just studying, studying history, studying the more of the nuance from the Fed Reserve meeting, and I'm like, "Oh my gosh, they could be misleading us with this bills purchase because they could be buying 52- week bills." And you're going to see why this matters.
Okay, what crisis have we had over the last 90 days? In the last 90 days, we've had massive private credit hell. Understand that tririccolor was a multi-billion dollar collapse on September 10th. That was just 90 days ago. Well, 91 days ago, right? Then what do you have? Well, you have the first brand's collapse, the Renovo Homes private equity home renovation rollup that collapsed. You have a Portaotti company that goes bankrupt. You got SER Homes that goes bankrupt. You've got that's the Marriott related brand. They went bankrupt. All of a sudden, evicted people out of their hotel rooms. You've got a Ritz Carlson developer in Arizona that goes bankrupt. All of that within the last 90 days. Now, we literally have warnings coming from the largest pension fund in Canada literally yesterday saying beware of rushing into private credit. This is a buyer beware market. Not only do you have this, but you have a French insurer exercising quote greater caution on artificial intelligence buildout when it comes to financing for the sector, which all comes on top of credit default swaps skyrocketing for Oracle. And that is based on yesterday's pricing. We don't even know yet what pricing is going to look like when we jump into a negative 14% decline on the day for Oracle.
Okay, so private credit has been a disaster. Oracle specifically because remember companies are using private credit to finance these data center buildouts. Remember Meta, Facebook, they are borrowing $27 billion through Blue Owl Capital, a private credit firm that also recently had a crisis because their publicly traded vehicle is selling for a massive discount to their privately traded vehicle. And then they tried to fix it, but the Financial Times exposed their bull crap and then they had to cancel and call off their rollup. You could look into that. The private credit Blue Owl disaster. Blue Owl is the same company taking the entire bag of $27 billion for Meta on financing the Meta data center expansion. This is why people are getting a little skittish about debt, including the Federal Reserve. And this is where it all ties back to the Fed. And I'm telling you, this took me a while to put together yesterday. But I want you to think about this. Last 90 days, private credit hell. Where does private credit money come from? Big banks. Okay. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and City. Okay, these are the big four. The big four funnel money into companies like Jeff. Jeff then lends uh uh lends to scams like first brands financing receivables which just all of a sudden evaporate. Why do they do that? Because they shove retired people's money into these funds that have a high yield to give them certain yield cuz it can't go wrong. And Jeff takes a big ass fee and then JP Morgan and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and City get a slice of that big ass fee because they can't do the loans themselves because of the DoddFrank regulation that says we don't want you guys doing the scammy financing. So instead of them doing the scammy financing, they give it to Jeff to do the scammy financing and they still get a slice of the pie. This is why it's all related to big banks and it's a giant giant banking crisis waiting to happen. People are like, "Kevin, I don't care if private credit goes bankrupt. It's different from the big banks." No, it's not different at all.
And it all gets scary when you have the regulators start coming in. But the regulators aren't coming in. I mean, Trump's president, right? I mean, regulators don't have a job, right? Oh, shya. SEC probes Jeffre over their lending to first brands. Well, damn it. The regulators are still at their jobs. They're still at their desk. What the hell is going on? So, how does this relate to a direct bailout from the Federal Reserve that has just started? Well, we're going to talk about that. But something to know, and I want to just shout this out in the Me Kevin Alpha report this morning. Nobody's going to believe it unless you watch this me Kevin Alpha report this morning. I said I'm buying the dip on a 617 bounce and I just want you to see it. These were the cues this morning and your boy Kevin probably spent about what did I buy? Like $50,000 bucks worth of stuff. I think I bought somewhere around $50,000 maybe even $60,000 worth of stons uh of my top 10 stocks to buy list. Yeah, I bought 11,000$10,000 11,000 10,000 and an option for five. Okay, so it's like 46ish,000. 46,000 bucks of of buy the dip by alert 617 line. Look at where it is on the chart. Just saying if you want lifetime access to that, make sure you join over at meekke.com. Can't always guarantee that our calls are, you know, perfect, but I think we do a really good job every day before the market opens up. I want you to be a part of it. Pay once, you get lifetime access. Some even say you stop hearing the pitch once you join. It's like a built-in ad block.
Okay, go back to this for a moment. Understand this. So, we know private credit is in bed with the big banks. We know this. This is obvious. We know they're lending to bull crap private credit scams. Okay. Now, where does the Fed come in? The Fed is pumping liquidity. The Fed is arguing that bank balances are about to get drawn down by about $400 billion because taxes are going to go to the Treasury General account. So, think about this. Like look, I got like multiple, you know, seven figures sitting in cash right now because I got a big tax bill to pay. Okay, which is, you know, it's a good thing. It means you made made money, right? Fine. So, I got a big tax bill to pay. When that money goes from cash at the banks to the Treasury Department because I paid my tax bill, the banks have less money to lend. So, the Fed is saying, "Hey, uh, well, what if we quietly print $60 billion per month to prop banks up again?" Okay. Well, how long would it take for you to prop up $400 billion of money until April tax refunds start, you know, dropping into people's banks so banks can lend again? How long is that going to take to offset $40 billion of a banking hole or $400 billion worth of banking hole if you're printing $60 billion a month? Well, 400 divided by 60 is 6.67 months. So basically sometime between 6 to 7 months of money printing that the Federal Reserve has to do. How long is Powell still in office? Six months. Powell on his way out is trying to print his way out so he isn't left holding the bag. Call me jaded, call me skeptical, but it's too damn convenient.
And so this is where we get back to Pomo versus Somo. Okay, so Homo Somo, I initially thought this was just going to be overnight liquidity. I actually think I was wrong yesterday. I actually think they're going to use rigable homo because think about it. If you're trying to plug a $400 billion hole, why are you going to buy one week or four week treasury bills? You won't. You're probably going to buy 26- week and 52- week Treasury bills, which basically means the money printer is back on for the next 6 to 12 months. Now, why is the money printer back on? Why are they doing this? They're doing it because they said the quiet part out loud yesterday. You remember what they said yesterday? It was nasty. They were so blunt about it, but nobody's paying attention to what they said yesterday.
>> Go buy the meet Kevin courses. 20,000 negative jobs per month on average. And don't trust the data. Okay, look at this. Number one, average job gains 40k uh last, you know, 4 months. Powell says, "Don't trust the data." He literally is saying the quiet part out loud. Powell's saying, "Don't trust the data." And he's telling us actual jobs are probably - 20k per month, which is less than break even, which is bad. Okay, but here's the problem. Okay, watch this. Fed prints 60 bill. Where does that money go? The money goes to banks, which goes to private credit, which props up AI and Oracle. They haven't started printing yet. They turn the printer on tomorrow. Okay. Uh the 40 bill, well, they started printing some of it. The 40 bill starts 1212 and 20 bill is already happening, you know, per month, mind you. This is per month. Okay? This is not like a little onetime top off. It's per month for the foreseeable future.
So now I want you to think about this for a moment. The Fed prints $60 billion. It goes to banks, which goes to private credit, which goes to AI and Oracle. You think it goes to you? No. It's going to AI, Oracle, and big companies. Why? Because the only leg holding up labor at all isn't the consumer, it's AI. If it weren't for cap, like Goldman Sachs says this, we know this. If it weren't for AI, we would be in recession without AI. And so the Fed knows this. And so they're secretly saying the quiet part out loud and people aren't paying attention. Imagine if the Fed said this. Imagine the Fed says labor is SH9T and we're going into a recession. The stock market would tank and guarantee a recession. So instead, hey guys, the Treasury General account is getting filled up. Uh, you know, banks need liquidity. Private credit is seizing up. Uh, we're just going to we're going to fix the plumbing. Uh, this isn't QE. Uh, no. This is this is this is just a just a plumbing patch. That's all this is. It's a plumbing patch, guys. Everything's fine. Everything is fine. This is like Spongebob with fire. Everything is fine. It's insane.
So, everything is not fine. The Federal Reserve is literally now printing $60 billion a month to directly bail out artificial intelligence to try to stick the soft landing before Jerome Powell leaves. The timing of the purchases align with Powell leaving. Maybe it's a coincidence, but Powell said his dream is to make sure that he leaves the Fed with the economy on good footing and not in a recession. This is Powell and the Federal Reserve puking. The Federal Reserve realizes the labor market is a massive issue. Now, how the hell can you increase GDP and say that the labor market is weakening? AI. That's it. Jerome Powell also warned about that. This is the first industrial revolution that might actually be net job destructive and it's terrible for America in the long term. It's in the very long term will be good. So, I should say maybe it's terrible in like the medium longest term and then the very long term it's better. Eventually, it'll be better, but it could take a decade because when we had the boom of radios or we had the boom of the automotive industrial revolution, yeah, people who drove, you know, horses or horsedrawn carriages, they lost their jobs to autos or, you know, some newspapers lost their jobs to radio or TV, you know, TV killed some radio, right? There's always going to be some turnover. But AI is this really unique innovation where you could fire a 100 customer service agents and hire two electricians for your data center and actually net have GDP go up. So you could literally have GDP going up with a net 98 person loss in that example, which is insane. And it's the big winners are big corporations. The hope is that the big corporations turn around and start hiring people again because they're the only ones who have the capacity to hire. If you look at the last ADP reports, which businesses are suffering? Big businesses? No.
>> No. >> Small businesses. Small businesses can't hire. So, no. The Fed is not trying to bail out Main Street. They're not trying to bail out the small businesses. They're not trying to bail out you or your mom or your sister. They're trying to bail out the stock market. They're trying to bail out rich people because historically, rich people create jobs. However, maybe that's going to take a whole lot longer than it has historically. And that's the scary part. And that's why secretly the Federal Reserve is printing $60 billion a month. And I think they are using POMO instead of tommo. Not only to try to get through this technical tax patch, but also because they are saying the quiet part out loud and they are telling us, don't trust the data. The jobs market is actually worse than Donald Trump is telling you. Powell, I've never seen him do this before. I've never in my career seen Powell say, "Don't trust the data." And conveniently, after Donald Trump makes the jobs data disappear for October, and then the November jobs data is going to be based on a month that half of the government was shut down for, we're going to conveniently and magically have numbers come out, you know, next week that aren't going to be rigged at all. Just happens to align with the same exact moment that Jerome Pal says, "Don't trust the data." Saying something. That's why the Federal Reserve is puking.
And now, if you go look at the Wall Street Journal editorial board, they're one of the few actually pointing this out. The central bank is predicting faster growth in 2026, but still eases again. Why? Because of the labor market. Now, they don't tell us about the negative 20K, which I think everybody's missing. But the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal tells us something different. They tell us something that good old Nick T is not telling us. They tell us the FOMC has introduced what you might call QE eternity, which is a new way of saying QE infinity. But this is basically like I I honestly I honestly I I believe their for a moment. I I'm like, "Okay, I get it. They're going to use tommo. They're going to buy really short-term T- bills." Understand T- Bill maturities. T- billill maturities. I think it's it's useful to see the options which is gives you so much cover. So just type in T- billill maturities. Okay. And you could buy as low as one week because you just buy the four-week maturities that expire within a week or within a few days. Right? But these are the available new issue T- billill maturities. 4 weeks, 6 weeks, 8 weeks, one quarter, 17 weeks, 6 months, and and a year. Those are your T- billill maturities. I thought they were going to use tommo and they were going to go for very short-term you know one day overnight one week tea bills but the more I got to thinking about it the more I realized if they buy 4 week and they buy 60 billion of four week this month well then next month they're net doing zero but that's not what they're trying to do they're trying to fill the treasury g they're trying to fill the hole of the bank money going to the treasury general account. So, they can't do 4-week. It doesn't make sense to do four-week because you're literally pushing against a string. Then you're doing nothing. You have to get to at least April, which means you're going to go for 6 months. And if you're going to go for 6 months, you're probably going to be buying between 26 and 25 weeks. That is not temporary liquidity. That is basically permanent liquidity. That's why we call it homo.
So, I have to say I was wrong and that my initial reaction was was taking at face value what they said that this is just to patch the plumbing. And it wasn't until I sat there for hours yesterday going something seems off about this. Gold is rising. Okay, that was that was a tell, by the way. Okay, gold is rising. Silver is rising and the 102 spread is rising. The market is telling me something. What is the market telling me? And it wasn't until I took that hint and I sat down for many hours and I'm like, "What? This is weird. What is going on?" And then I realized nobody's talking about that, the - 20K. And when you align the negative 20K with the private credit banking disaster, it all makes sense. This is a secretive banking bailout of $60 billion of printing. And so what does that mean for well stons? Well, usually it's a good thing for stons. Just saying. I bought the dip a little bit. Okay, I might buy some more of the dip, too. But it's actually usually bullish for stock short-term. The problem is what if the Fed truly is too late? And this is why I maintain I'm at a teeter totter. Okay, if you go to meet Kevin.com/data, you could see the barebull scale. So meet.com/data. I really got to update the web page a little bit, but the the bare bull scale is updated as of two days ago. Honestly, this probably puts me at like a 5.8 because you just got the Fed put. The Fed put is back. Now, notice I'm not a 10 out of 10. That's because the Fed might be too late. We might already be screwed. In which case, that sucks. But this is why I say no debt, okay? No margin, no personal debt, no bank debt at my startup. I am having serious conversations, by the way, uh now with my team and uh soon with my board. I'm meeting my board in 5 days about ending the fund raise for House Hack. And I'm going to tell you why. The Federal Reserve, well, first of all, we're releasing our AI product and we're like, we don't need to pay a yield to investors. Uh if we have an AI product out, we still are for the people investing now. You know, read the offering circular. This is not a solicitation. So you click the invest button, you could learn about, you know, the 5% yield or all the upside, whatever. No fees to invest, blah blah blah. Not a solicitation. Read the offering circular. There's risk with every investment. But I'm seriously thinking about going to the board and saying the Federal Reserve is now at 3 and a half%. The we are dropping our AI product this month. Why are we paying a yield when the Fed's at 3 and a half%, we're paying five, and they're literally about to turn the money printer on. We do not need to pay a yield. They're turning the money printer on tomorrow. We don't need to pay a yield. So, um I don't know. We We'll see. Stay tuned. I I might I I don't like just making a decision myself. You know, it's going to be between uh uh the board uh and and everyone's collective input, but I I will uh I'm tempted to make the case to say we need to end it. So, we'll see. Um anyway, that's my take. The Fed money printer is back and it's insane. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.
>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.
>> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you.
>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.