Transcription
A political crisis for the UK prime minister reshuffling his cabinet after his deputy quit for not paying enough tax. He's under attack too from the right-wing Reform UK party over migration. A year after a landslide election win, why is Keir Starmer in trouble? This is Inside Story.
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Hello, welcome to the program. I'm Adrian Finnegan. With a little over a year after a resounding election victory, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government is in upheaval after his deputy quit for not paying enough property tax. Starmer was pushed into reshuffling his cabinet. His Labour Party's ratings have fallen dramatically just as the far-right Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, has surged in opinion polls. Migration has become a central issue, symbolized by the arrival of people on small boats from across the English Channel. The main opposition Conservative Party and Reform UK accuse Starmer of not doing enough. He's been active on the world stage, backing Ukraine against Russia, and has been strongly supportive of Israel despite recent criticism from him of its genocide. So why has Starmer found himself in such difficulty so soon into office? Will he find a way out, or could his troubles deepen? And what would that mean for the UK at home and internationally? We'll talk to our guests shortly. But first, a report from Joel Evans.
The resignation of UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has triggered a major cabinet reshuffle. She stepped down after an investigation found she'd failed to pay the correct amount of property tax on a flat that cost nearly $1.1 million.
"Hi, nice to meet you."
A former trade union worker and single mother from a working-class background, Rayner was seen as a vital bridge to the Labour Party's broad support base.
"On the streets. Many voters felt she had to go because she is a deputy prime minister. She is held at a higher standard. So if she has done something incorrect, then she's right to resign her role. She was a formidable character in parliament. But it's a shame she did it. It's a good thing she got caught and she resigned. I don't know what's going to happen with the Labour party because of it, 'cause she was formidable."
It's the biggest crisis yet for Keir Starmer, whose approval ratings have plummeted 14 months after he led Labour to a landslide election victory. He's reshuffled his cabinet, hoping new faces will reinvigorate his electoral promises of change. The upheaval unfolded while the far-right Reform UK was holding its party conference. It's leading in opinion polls and believes it poses a threat to the two main parties' hold on power.
"But in the middle of this meltdown of these two parties that have dominated for 100 years British politics, in the middle of all of this, there is a new strong unified party that speaks with one voice."
Migration has become a central issue on Britain's political agenda. Anti-immigration protests have been held across the country recently, with far-right wing media and politicians leading calls to "stop the boats," referring to migrants and asylum seekers crossing the English Channel on small craft.
"Number 10. Reform has pledged a tough response, such as daily deportation flights and detention centers. Starmer is facing increased pressure with his own party's electoral pledge to 'smash the gangs,' mirroring the stance of the Conservative Party and Reform UK. And he's under pressure from the left with a new party formed by the man he replaced as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, attacking his stance on Israel's war on Gaza."
Joel Evans, Al Jazeera for Inside Story.
Let's bring in our guests. From Oxford, we're joined by Jonathan Tong, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool and author of numerous books on British and Northern Irish politics. In Belfast is Mark Devonport, journalist and former BBC Northern Ireland political editor. And in Birmingham is Peter Gagan, a political commentator and author of the book *Democracy for Sale: Dark Money and Dirty Politics*. A warm welcome to you all.
Jonathan, let's start with you. Bearing in mind that our global audience may have very little knowledge of the day-to-day minutiae of British politics, why, after securing a landslide victory just 14 months ago, is the UK prime minister performing so badly in the polls at the moment?
Well, the simple fact is Labour's landslide was exaggerated in many ways. They did win two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, but they only got one-third of the vote. So Labour was never quite as popular as was commonly imagined. Anyway, since then, though, both the prime minister's own political rating has been in freefall, and so has his party's. And that's allowed Reform, under Nigel Farage, to surge ahead in the polls. Why? Well, I think there are a couple of reasons, but I think the single most important reason is there's no money for the government to spend. The government is heavily in debt. Debt is growing every month, and the repayment of that debt is actually costing more than a hundred billion, just on the interest on our debt repayment. So there are no goodies that can be thrown at the electorate. Then you've got the issues, of course, of illegal migration, asylum seekers, and that "smash the gangs" pledge of Keir Starmer's simply hasn't worked out. The number of crossings across the English Channel has increased. The sum of those parts, no money and no policy that can tackle illegal immigration, means that the party has become very, very unpopular.
Indeed, Mark. Reading the British media from abroad, you could be forgiven for believing that Starmer's government is one of chaos, void of policy ideas, no idea how to run the country. Is that how it really is?
Certainly, they haven't delivered in the way that they were promising at the time of the last election. I think John is right in saying that whilst they got a landslide, there wasn't a great deal of affection for them. Instead, people thought they would be more competent than the Conservatives, who had wrecked the UK economy, particularly under the short tenure of previous Prime Minister Liz Truss. But what's happened is that, largely I think because of international conditions – we all know what's happened with President Trump and international trade – they've failed to deliver on their talk of making the UK economy a lot more productive. Economic growth hasn't happened as promised. Instead, it's stagnated, and the public has now been drawn to some of these fringe forces. Nigel Farage, who was the architect of Brexit, the UK's exit from the European Union, has now been able to exploit the migration issue, and he's promising radical solutions. And although he only has like four MPs at the moment, he's riding very high in the opinion polls, which is why things are a lot more fragile than you would think they would be, given the size of Labour's majority and the fact that Starmer has only been in power for one year.
We'll talk more about Reform in just a few minutes. Mark, Peter, it's not just non-Labour voters who are unhappy with Keir Starmer's government, but many of his own Labour Party supporters aren't happy either. Why?
I think it's a combination of factors that both John and Mark have outlined. You know, you've seen a party that won a huge majority, albeit with a small percentage of the vote, made a lot of big promises about change, talked a lot about delivery, about action. There's a lot of perception that lots of things haven't happened, that the government has been slow to react to things, not delivered in the way it was said it would deliver. But particularly, I think on the kind of center-left and the left of the party, a number of decisions that were taken, like cutting winter fuel allowance for pensioners, a decision actually that was then reversed, a series of tax changes for businesses – they've actually angered lots of different parts of the constituency. So if you think about the Labour vote, it's split amongst different types of constituencies, and they've seen, in many respects, what Starmer has done is alienate a series of different fragments of his coalition. And that, brought together, has actually put him in this position where you could be accused of actually pleasing nobody at the moment. I think that's a real danger and a real challenge for Starmer, because he's not been able to put together really a narrative about what his government is about, what it's for, and what he's trying to do. And in that gap, really, his opponents, and particularly Nigel Farage, have been able to inject a narrative. And that's proving to be a more compelling sell at the moment with the electorate than the current situation.
Jonathan, there's never a good time for a high-profile resignation, but the resignation of Keir Starmer's deputy could hardly have come at a worse time, given everything else that we've been talking about here. How much of a blow to him is the resignation of Angela Rayner?
I think Angela Rayner's resignation is a huge blow. Remember, it was a triple resignation. So Keir has had to find a new deputy prime minister in David Lammy. He's had to find a new housing, communities, and local government minister, which is a really important post within government. And perhaps most problematically of all, there now has to be a new deputy leader of the Labour Party elected. That's an election over which Starmer, even though he's prime minister, has no control. It's perfectly possible that the Labour Party may elect a deputy leader who doesn't get on with Starmer, or disagrees with his politics, or potentially both, because that's in the gift of the election of the party, not Starmer as prime minister. I think it will also overshadow this relaunch that Labour has tried to do, this Labour government has tried to do, what it called "Phase Two" of this government. Well, we only got to day four of Phase Two before we had, you know, a major resignation in Angela. The party will gather in government, the Labour Party in Liverpool in three weeks for its annual conference. That will be overshadowed by the jostling for position for who's going to be the next deputy leader of the party. And as I say, it may be someone ideologically and politically a long way off Starmer's radar.
Mark, do you agree with that? I mean, to what extent could finding a new deputy leader of the Labour Party become an internal referendum, if you like, on Starmer's performance as leader of the party and prime minister of the country?
I think it's quite possible that that leadership contest could be something in which the left wing of the party tries to reassert itself and have one of its members voted in by the membership in order to, if you like, put the brakes on Keir Starmer, who's seen to be very much to the right of the party. That said, the Starmer leadership will want to try and control that leadership election as much as possible, and there's quite a high bar in terms of the number of MPs who have to endorse any candidate. So we'll have to see whether, ultimately, a Starmer-style leadership contender comes in. But they are going to be missing a trick without Angela Rayner, because one of the criticisms that I think is made consistently of Keir Starmer is that whilst in private he's a very affable character who comes across well, in public he seems to be a bit of a grey man. He certainly isn't charismatic. And if he's up against somebody like Nigel Farage, well then he needs all the Angela Rayners he can get, because Angela Rayner was a character. She certainly knew how to talk to the average working-class voter in the north of England, and she projected in a way in which these other members of the cabinet who've been busy shifting their positions in a big reshuffle over the last couple of days have not been able to do so far.
Peter, how damaging are the optics of all of this, having to bring forward a major cabinet reshuffle? Will it actually help him get onto solid ground? He's only a year into a five-year term. Can he sort this mess out?
Well, the optics and the timing of this really are very bad for this government. As you say, they've only been in office just over a year. They're very unpopular. I'm actually speaking to you from the Reform Party conference here in Birmingham. When Angela Rayner's announcement was, where her resignation was announced, Nigel Farage actually moved forward his speech by a number of hours so he could get into the news cycle. It really went down incredibly well with Reform Party members. Unsurprisingly, they dislike Rayner. They dislike this government. But it felt like a scalp. And I think it feeds into this sense of chaos in government. On one level, ironically, it kind of firms up Starmer's position in the short term. Rayner was probably seen as the most likely successor to Starmer, the person most likely to move against him. So now there's a plethora of potential rivals. So in the short term, he might be a bit shored up politically, internally. But it really feeds into this sense that the government is in power but not in charge, in office but not in power. And I think that's a narrative that Reform are really pushing here at this conference and have been pushing for a long time. Nigel Farage is really pushing, and I think it's a very damaging. This is a very damaging week for the prime minister. Quite how damaging it is, I think, remains to be seen. He's taken back some control, to use a Brexit phrase, by reshuffling his cabinet, bringing new people into different positions, but there's no doubt about it, at the end of this week, he's more diminished than he was at the start.
Do you get the feeling, Peter, from there, that there's a lot of confidence among those who support Reform that they are possibly a party that could end up in government in a few years?
They certainly feel like that. You know, the Reform Party is very much a vehicle of Nigel Farage. He's someone who's been on the political scene in Britain for a very long time. He was seen as the person who pushed more than anybody else the Brexit referendum, the successful referendum to leave the European Union. But what Nigel Farage has never had before is a party that was polling the kind of numbers that Reform are. He used to run the UK Independence Party, UKIP. They never polled in the 30s consistently in the way that Reform is. And if you talk to people here, there's a real sense of optimism. This is the biggest party conference they've ever had by a huge amount. They've had a load of victories, a lot of councillors here. They've got a lot of local election victories earlier this year. There's a real sense of energy and momentum about this party. It's still, but crucially, there's still a long way off the general election. Nigel Farage has been talking about an election in 2027. It's very hard to see where that happens. We're not due to have an election in Britain until 2029. And Labour, for all its problems, for all Starmer's difficulties, still has a very large majority in government.
Jonathan, Reform has what, four seats in Parliament currently? However, polls suggest that if there were an election tomorrow, they'd get a majority of seats. What is it? What are they offering that appeals to the British electorate right now?
They're offering simple, straightforward solutions to what are actually complex questions. So, for example, on the policy with which you would associate Reform most closely, they say that any illegal migrant would be instantly deported, no questions asked. Now, that may be an attractive policy to many electors, but it'd be much harder to execute in practice. Reform says they will leave the European Convention of Human Rights. So, obviously, that will diminish the rights of those who are seeking to stay in the UK. Reform says, necessarily, they'll return illegal immigrants even to Afghanistan under the Taliban. Reform are also pledging to spend an awful lot of money. And critics of Reform would say their economic plans don't stack up, because they are certainly a right-wing party on issues of immigration, but in many ways, they're a left-wing party in terms of their spending pledges. So again, you know, that's something that can appeal to many working-class people who want a tough immigration policy and they want left-wing economics that will benefit them, but the sums may not add up. I think, you know, there is a long way to go, as Peter has pointed out. I don't see any election coming before 2029. Why would Starmer call one? It will be completely self-defeating. He's got to play for time. I think the weaknesses of Reform are less its policies, which clearly are populist, they are resonating with the electorate. I think that the weaknesses are structurally that they're prone to big internal fallouts. They've already lost one of the MPs who was elected only in summer last year. They're very Nigel Farage dependent. You know, there isn't much of a structure within the party. And, you know, if anything were to happen to Nigel Farage, I think Reform would retreat very rapidly. And I think they are a volatile party. So, I still think, you know, the next election is very much up for grabs. I have no doubt if there was an election tomorrow, Reform would be the largest party, but I think Reform will come under ever greater scrutiny in the run-up to the next general election.
Mark, why is immigration such a big issue in the UK? Why have the three main political parties' positions shifted so far to the right on this? How much has public opinion been influenced by media coverage led by right-wing newspapers, The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express, and the new digital TV channels? To what extent do those media outlets reflect public opinion, to what extent are they shaping it?
Well, it's a bit of both, I suppose. But it's clear that elements in the media have been very much concentrating on migration. I mean, the UK is not alone in this. This has been a problem across Western Europe, as we've seen wars in the developing world and climate change fueling increasing numbers of migrants looking to find a new home and to claim asylum in more northerly countries, I suppose. But yes, the media has focused on this. None of the recent governments, not the Conservatives nor Labour, have really got a handle on it. Clearly, migration is extremely important for the UK economy. A lot of legal migrants, for instance, find work in the British Health Service and in other essential services and industries. But there has also been this focus on migrants in small boats making their own way across the Channel, organized by people traffickers. And then there have been some incidents around the accommodation that certain migrants have been accommodated in. And whilst some of that has also been exploited, I suppose, by people who've been happy to portray false narratives, at the same time, there's been some substance to that. And the likes of Nigel Farage and Reform and other even more right-wing groups have seized on that. So I think we will see a toughening stance from Labour as they realize that they've got to be seen by their voters to tackle this. And that's going to be one of the jobs given to the new Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, who has already indicated that she may well try and restrict some of the rights that have previously been given by UK courts to asylum seekers under the European Convention of Human Rights.
Peter, just before we move on from migration, is it out of control in the UK? Immigration, what are the facts? Is the country, as the right-wing media in the UK would have you believe, being swamped by immigrants? Why are immigrants vilified by the press in the UK?
Well, actually, immigration is going down and will continue to go down for the next few years. We had very, very high levels of immigration just after we left the European Union for a number of factors. Some of which were to do with labor market shortages, the kind of things that Mark has mentioned, the NHS and other places. They were also due to external factors, the war in Ukraine, and also a very generous visa scheme for people from Hong Kong, as China has increasingly become authoritarian in Hong Kong. So you've seen a lot of people come in. And there's been, you know, I think the media is part of it for sure, and also the British government. Keir Starmer's government has in many ways actually played into the hands, I think, of the populist right on this issue. If you look at, you know, he made a very inflammatory speech a few months ago that was said to have had echoes of Enoch Powell, the former right-wing Conservative minister who was actually sacked for his comments about his "rivers of blood" speech. And he made that speech just a week before new statistics came out showing a big drop in immigration. Similarly, the boats, the small boats crossing, has become a huge political football in Britain. And if you were to ask people how many people they think are coming over in these small boats, they are massively multiplying the numbers, far greater than they are. So there are issues around Britain securing its borders, definitely issues in border towns and communities, places like Dover, but even the migrant hotels, which has become a big issue, the housing of migrants in hotels. These are long-standing practices, and in many ways, the government has been very slow to react to both local tensions around these, but also to framing a narrative that isn't actually playing into its hands. But I think what Starmer and his government have ended up doing, basically, is accepting the talking points of the right on this, which is leading people to go, well, actually, if the right are right, we should be going further.
Jonathan, getting back to Starmer, has his engagement on foreign policy issues like Ukraine and Donald Trump taken his eye off the domestic political ball? Is that the feeling? Has his policy of supporting Israel on Gaza damaged him and the party?
I think we have to disaggregate each foreign policy issue. On Ukraine, Starmer has been in tune with the British public, which remains very solidly pro-Ukraine. It hasn't always worked out for Starmer. At one point, he appeared to be trying to lead a coalition of the willing, trying to put troops into Ukraine. That idea very quickly died a death. But overall, you know, the public's with him. On Israel, there's no doubt that his own party, many within his own party, are unhappy over what he sees as complicity with Israel in terms of the destruction in Gaza. There's quite a lot of unrest that's contributed, of course, to the formation of your party, a party to the left of Labour. And the challenges don't just come from the right to Labour. You've got your party, and you've got a reinvigorated Green Party with new leadership and several MPs. And I think that will continue to press. And also, yes, there is an unhappiness over what is sometimes seen as obsequiousness towards Donald Trump. You know, the UK has to do business, a UK prime minister has to do business with the leader of America. So I'm not sure that Starmer had any real alternative. You know, there have been sort of a few cringe-worthy events, like the unfolding of the envelope which contained the invitation to come on a state visit, which will take place very soon when Donald Trump comes on a second unprecedented state visit for a US president. Overall, I think it's a mixed picture on foreign policy, and I don't think electorally it will be decisive.
And Mark, what about the new Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper? Will the UK's Middle East policy change under her? Will her appointment placate those in the Labour Party who are critical of the government's support for Israel?
Well, Yvette Cooper, as Home Secretary, which is the minister responsible for interior affairs, actually was the minister behind the proscription, which is the technical term for deeming a group illegal, of the protest group Palestine Action. So I'm not sure she's necessarily seen as likely to be any more pro-Palestinian than David Lammy, who she's replacing. That said, the government is on a trajectory now of moving away from its previous unequivocal support for Israel in the immediate aftermath of October the 7th and instead should be in the coming weeks moving towards the recognition of Palestine at the UN. But it's going to be a difficult, and I suppose, delicate task for Cooper and Starmer over the next few weeks, because they're committed to that in terms of their policy, assuming that there's no immediate ceasefire in Gaza. At the same time, I think President Trump is due on a state visit. They'll want to calibrate whatever they say to not annoy him too much in Washington, at the same time whilst pressing ahead with what they've said they're going to do, in line with what President Macron and other European countries want to do this autumn.
Peter, is Angela Rayner, the now former deputy prime minister, is Angela Rayner's political career over, given her popularity within the Labour Party? Could she somehow mount a political comeback?
It's not impossible to see Angela Rayner mounting a political comeback. She's somebody who's very popular, very connected in with the trade union movement in the Labour Party, has got a lot of rank-and-file support too, as someone who is seen very much as a potential future leader. We have a long track record in Britain as well of people resigning over issues and coming back. Yes, she was found guilty by the standards, by the independent investigator for ministerial standards, to have broken the rules quite clearly. But he also basically spoke up of her integrity as a politician, as a person. It was not seen as part of a compulsive rule-breaking. It was quite a technical breach in some respects, a complicated area of property tax law. It's not seen as something in which she was really trying to advance herself or make money for herself. So, given all of that, it's really not hard to see Angela Rayner making a comeback in, you know, in a few years' time, or even less. We still got four years to the next election, so there's a lot of time for that.
And very, very briefly, Jonathan, I need a 10-15 second answer. As we said, Starmer doesn't have to call an election for another four years. They say a week is a long time in politics. Can he somehow get his government back on track in time to have a chance of winning a second term before the next election?
He's only going to win a second term if the economy grows. At the moment, the economy is flatlining. Without economic growth, this Labour government is in huge, huge trouble.
Excellent. Gentlemen, many thanks indeed for being with us. Jonathan Tong, Mark Devonport, Peter Gagan. And thank you for watching. Don't forget, you can see the program again at any time by going to the website, that's at aljazeera.com. For further discussion, join us on our Facebook page at facebook.com/ajinside story. And of course, you can join the conversation on X, our handle there is @AJInsideStory. From me, Adrian Finnegan, and the team here in Doha, we'll see you again. Bye for now.
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