Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Saturday, November 1st brief, it is 9:24 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long-short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. Currently, we had the monthly close. So we are on a candle that clearly shows total indecision in the market. We have a month that is completely, clearly, we are in indecision when we see a wick above and a wick below. And currently, I no longer have the exact term if anyone wants to put it in the comments for the name of this candle, but there you go, these are candles that give us complete indecision in the markets, and therefore, there is no particular bias to be drawn from this candle. So, just tell yourself one thing: the next candle is likely to be very volatile because generally, when we have a candle of this type, the following candle is rather violent. So, we risk having a rather emotional November. If we look at the daily chart, we are currently still bearish on Bitcoin. So we don't currently have any change in trend or anything. We see that it was simply a liquidity grab. So in this daily IFVG that we had just here, we had this IFVG, we see that we bounced once in it, twice, and then the second time we were rejected. So currently, we are not really bullish on the daily. We could have an upward retracement coming. So we will have to be careful about that. But in any case, currently, we are not necessarily completely bullish on the daily. A structure is currently being formed. What is rather interesting is that we have an accumulation happening here, and therefore, we are accumulating stop losses. We have a wick in the UFVG that we had to take here. So between $109,000 and $108,184. So that's rather interesting given that there were people to come and liquidate. Currently, we are accumulating quite a few stops there. So logically, we should be able to go a little higher, notably this FVG, at $111,972 and $112,686. We also have a very small IFVG, so it can be snipped if we really want a rejection in there. It could be really interesting given that it is really ridiculous. When we look, it's between $111,83 and $112,050. So clearly, that's a $60, $57, $67 variation. So that's rather interesting. We are, we are rather there on this. So logically, we should have a rejection in this zone. In any case, what is almost certain is that we should have a rebound to at least liquidate the trendline that we have just here. If we look at the H1 chart, we are currently also bullish. We are validating a change in trend right here. So, we said that we had a wick in the FVG on this wick to get everyone out. Currently, we are also bullish on H1. However, we are still accumulating quite a few stops below, and so we really need to be careful about that. We will note this trendline, not necessarily to trade it, but simply to say that we have a zone where we come to seek them. So it wasn't necessarily that. If it's that. We had this liquidity grab that happened yesterday. Here, in my opinion, many people wanted to play the reversal. So in my opinion, it was cleaner on H4, I think. We were there. There. No, it was that. We had a touch, two touches, three touches. We see that we go above. Then, many people opened long positions. At the moment we break this trendline, we come, we get them out, and then we are breaking. So we are clearly breaking it, moving back up into the FVG plus the trendline. So why not have a rejection to at least reach $112,000, that could be interesting. If we also look at the M15 chart, we are currently in a range, but we are rather bullish. What we see is that, on the other hand, it's the same thing: we have an accumulation here. So we are not safe from coming to seek these liquidations at some point. But there you go, we can very well leave this zone alone and then go to $112,000, continuing to accumulate gently. We do a small up, frankly, to liquidate everyone. Then, if it reverses, it will be to seek these liquidations, and we could go much lower. So we will have to be careful about that. In any case, for now, it is bullish, and we should push a little higher. In terms of economic news, next week, we don't have huge news, but we do have quite a bit. We have the Manufacturing PMI on Monday at 3:45 PM. Expect some movement on Monday around those times. On Tuesday, we have the JOLTS report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 4 PM. So, same thing, it's likely to move a lot since these are expected news because unemployment is not going very well in the United States. So Job Openings are rather expected news. On Wednesday, we will have Non-Farm Payrolls at 2:15 PM. We will also have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Same thing, it's expected news for inflation and especially the Services PMI at 3:45 PM. That's mainly what we'll be waiting for on Wednesday, it's the most important news, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as well as Crude Oil Inventories at 4 PM and 4:30 PM. Regarding crypto bubbles, what we see is that we have green almost everywhere. It's normal, Bitcoin is currently rebounding, and we are starting to see cryptocurrencies gaining real strength when Bitcoin rebounds. Notably, ZEC, Dash, Virtual, Tao, Ton. So clearly, it's rather interesting. ZEC is really, really very strong. So that's what I was telling you a few weeks ago, as soon as you enter an H4 FVG, it can be interesting to open a long position given that it keeps going up, and there are frankly quite interesting setups, and it's rather easy to trade when you have this kind of movement. It's simply a break of structure. Then, we return to an FVG, we go long in the FVG, stop loss below the FVG candle, and then we target an RR22, and it's often very simple on this kind of crypto. Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that we had a huge increase in open interest just here. And then, we see that we had a dump in funding at the same time. And so, what that means is simply that a majority of shorts were opened here, and they haven't taken profit yet, given that we see a very small drop in open interest with a rise in funding. So, what that means is that these are shorts that are being closed, but in any case, it's not a complete closure of everyone. We have a lot of open positions. We are talking about 79, we are talking about 7000 bitcoins in position. So we are almost back to where we were just here in terms of open interest. So it's really quite violent in terms of the positions that have opened. If we look at liquidations, what we see is that we have a cluster to be taken around $112,000. So that's the zone I was talking about in the IFVG. So, in my opinion, we can reach this zone and then have a rejection. We will see if we have a rejection or not depending on the data. For now, it's rather bullish. If we look at what the whales are doing, they have also accumulated this movement. We see very well that this zone has clearly been accumulated. So, are they precursors to a coming movement? I don't know. But in any case, when we see this kind of thing, we are generally not far from a bottom. It's rare for whales to agree to really buy a movement. Even on a falling movement, they don't essentially sell. We have a very small sale here, but otherwise, we have rather purchases. So clearly, it is highly probable that the whales know something that we don't know, and we could go much higher. So technically, what I think is that on Bitcoin, we will at least reach $112,000. Logically, the probabilities are on that side, and we could simply leave the longs alone here to go a little higher. So there you go, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.