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A podcast from Aftenposten. [music] >> If you don't get this into your businesses now, then you are finished. >> Nikolai Tangen, full of enthusiasm as always, believes Norwegians haven't understood how big artificial intelligence is and how enormously revolutionary it will be. But what if he's completely wrong, what if we're looking at a bubble that's bursting in our faces, costing us thousands of billions and damaging our oil fund. >> Is it like you start working super early in the morning? Is this like midday for you? >> Yes, >> is it? >> Yes. >> How is the rhythm then? >> Are we on now or? >> Well, we'll see if we were interesting enough. [laughter] Eh, no, I try to get started around 5 or 6 AM. Yes, >> exactly. Yes. Have you always done that? No, it's getting earlier and earlier, really. It's probably because one is getting older, but it's also because what's happening in the world now is so incredibly exciting, that if you can choose between sleeping or reading the newspaper, I'd rather read the newspaper. [laughter] But do you also go to bed very early to sort of adjust that? >> Yes, I go to bed around 9 PM. >> Is that true? >> Yes. But don't you feel like you're missing out on things then? >> No, you don't miss anything in the evening. It happens in the morning. >> But is it because you live in slightly different time zones or is it biology, like? >> No, no, I've never been that fond of the evening, really. I think the moon is much better. >> Exactly. >> Eh, nature is nicer, it's calmer, there's less wind on the sea. It's just lovely, and there aren't as many people. It's lonely then. >> But what do you do then? >> Well, then I get up and if I'm somewhere with a fireplace, I light the fireplace and make a cup of coffee, and then I start reading newspapers and emails. And now that I work at the fund, I check what has happened with the fund overnight. >> Exactly. Because that was it. >> So I get the results early in the month from what has happened in New York and Asia. >> Because I've wondered about that, in the management of the oil fund, which is supposed to be long-term, and at the same time, that website is ticking away. You know, it's a count of results, minute by minute, or I don't even know how often it's actually updated. I mean, >> 14 times a second. >> Right. Yes. And then, and I can get like that if I get very involved in some project or the numbers for a podcast or anything, then I can get like, I have to check it, and then I have to force myself sometimes, that I have to stop just checking the results. I have to work with the content. Do you understand what I mean? >> Of course, you have to. You always have to focus on the process. Yes. >> But long-term is a combination of many short-term things. >> Yes. So you have to have results. >> But is it like that when you sit there and read the news? Because I think many people sit and read the news all day and see the big world, and perhaps when you wake up, there's a pile of push notifications from various international media about what Donald Trump has said or something unstable. When you read that news, do you think about it consistently from a financial oil fund perspective? Yes, but not every single article. But when I wake up, I read the Financial Times and the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, plus of course, I check in on all the Norwegian ones. And afterwards, I think, what are the implications of this? What are the consequences of this? >> Mhm. And it's so exciting what's happening now, because you can either wake up and read these things that are happening and get a little depressed about what's happening in the world, or you can put on your student hat, so to speak, and just be amazed and find it exciting what's happening. There's a reason why what's happening is happening. You just try to understand the reasons behind it. >> But is this something you've always done and is a personal interest, or is it, if I understand this correctly, that your job becomes easier, or the oil fund becomes richer, if you will? No, but you have to understand these things to be able to lead the oil fund, I think. And I also believe more and more that there is a kind of objective truth. And then we have to look at the arguments from both sides to get closer to that truth. >> Yes. >> And that's why I'm keen on more discussion and livelier discussions and more disagreement in the fund. >> Exactly. Yes. >> Eh, >> but what do you mean by an objective truth? >> No, I just believe there is a kind of truth. I believe there is a kind of objective truth and [laughter] in >> in what? >> In everything. >> Yes. Yes. >> But can you give, like, what did you not believe was? If you said you believe more and more that there is an objective truth, can you mention a truth that you perhaps didn't quite believe in before, that you think you have found? >> No, but it applies to everything. It applies to all discussions. There is a solution, no matter what you discuss, there is a solution to the problem that is optimal. >> There is a perfect solution to everything. And that's what you have to get as close to as possible. And you get closest by hearing arguments from both sides. And that's the discussion there. They call it the scientific method. And some places are better at it than others. But I wouldn't say we are the best in the world at the fund, but I think we are getting better. There are more outspoken people. There are more discussions. There are more, like, scientists, or scientists are very good at this, right? They have a view. They come to a conference, lots of people disagree with them. And then perhaps they adjust their view after taking more information into account. But isn't that, I mean, that's a super fascinating thought, because it's also a bit of a tiring thought, isn't it? Because it means that you >> No, it's not a tiring thought. I don't think it's tiring at all. I think it's incredibly exciting to try to find this truth. [laughter] >> Yes, but then it's, >> but then it's, in a way, there are 100,000 different truths. So you have to, in a way, then it's possible to optimize any process. >> Yes, but, right. You can, eh, now we're not going to talk about politics and stuff, but it's clear that, right, let's consider what's happening in different parts of the world. There's a reason why it's happening. >> Yes, >> there's a reason why people vote for one or the other. There's a reason why the superpowers are not in agreement in the same way as before. But you can try to put yourself in the shoes of what is causing this. >> Mhm. Do you think that you, as the leader of the oil fund, which is part of the financial world, are a driver of what's happening and not just a, not just reacting to what's happening? >> No, I wouldn't say we are a driver. We are too small to be a driver. >> Yes, >> but we do contribute, of course. We have, >> okay, we are 1.5% of all companies in the world. In Europe, it's 2.5 to 3%. But people do look at how we vote, for example. So we do have an influence on about 3 percentage points of the votes. So it's almost 5% of the votes at important general meetings in the world that we have influence on. So we have influence there. >> Yes. >> But otherwise, I don't think we should overestimate the oil fund's influence. >> No, perhaps not the oil fund, but in a way, the industry, or the fact that, the world you live in, the financial markets, also drive this development in some way, affect the world you see. It's the >> Yes, the financial world is affected by the world, and it helps to influence the world. It's a bit of reflexivity there. It does both. >> But do you think it affects it in a good way, fundamentally? >> Yes. Whether finance affects it in a good way, I don't know. It is, it is an important part of society as a whole because companies need capital to create things, to invest. And these these funds must be traded on the stock exchange, right? And countries must finance themselves. They must take out loans. And we own a part of those loans. >> Yes. >> So we are part of the big picture. >> Can you help me explain something that I'm struggling to grasp because I'm not an economics person? I haven't sold flowers growing up and felt rich, so to speak. But one thing is that many people believe the world is, and it's actually going a bit the wrong way, a lot of uncertainty. And yet, it appears that the markets are doing very well. >> Yes. >> Why is that? >> Well, that's a very good question. The markets are doing surprisingly well given what's happening. And we do, we create so-called stress tests that we publish. And that's what our fantastic risk department does. Mm. >> And then they look at different things that can happen. And one is a fragmentation of the world. And that's what's happening a bit now, that the superpowers trade less with each other and that sustainability and so on. That's actually quite negative for the global economy and should be negative for financial markets. >> Yes. >> Then you have a number of other things that would normally be negative for the market, but haven't been so far. And then the question is, why isn't it? Well, I think, firstly, the big tech companies are doing very well, and they have a profit margin and sales growth that is almost 10%. >> Mm. >> And that drives the profit margin in the stock market. So that's positive. And then I think people see what's happening with artificial intelligence and the influence it will have on society, on productivity, on inflation, and that sort of thing. And that's very positive potentially. But isn't this something we can talk more about, because this is super >> we must talk more about this because this is the most important thing happening in the world right now. >> Is it? >> Yes. >> But, eh, just to, since you mentioned it, if, if okay, productivity growth will increase, but won't that also mean that an enormous number of companies will go under, and therefore the value of everything shouldn't go up? You understand. >> But not everyone is going up. Not everyone is going up. Many are going down now. >> Right. And a week ago, Anthropic released this thing called Cloud, these different plugins that, eh, yes, it's a technical thing, but it will make it difficult for lawyers, for accounting firms, for marketing companies. So those companies went down. While the value of >> Anthropic went up, we assume. >> But have I understood you correctly that you believe that we in Norway haven't really understood how big AI is? >> Eh, no, I think, in the grand scheme of things, we haven't understood it. It's a completely, it's a completely unbelievable revolution >> that's happening now. And, eh, the reason I say that is, I was at a, a, a conference here in Norway earlier this year where they talked for, like, 6 hours about bad framework conditions for Norwegian companies and, eh, 12 minutes about AI. >> Mm. >> And I think if they had, they should have talked for 6 hours about AI and 10 minutes about framework conditions. Because if companies use AI correctly, it will improve the competitiveness of all these companies. And, eh, when I talk to the management of the big tech companies, they say it's a steadily rising curve. And we're not talking about a steady flat curve. We're talking about a steady increase in the arc. That is, it's a steady acceleration upwards. So the technology curve is going almost straight up now. Exactly like a, like a bad coronavirus. >> It's going, it's going straight up and, eh, it's accelerating because it's >> artificial intelligence that's helping to create the new tools. >> So that, eh, eh, Anthropic, they say they used two weeks to create these new plugins, which are extremely important for a lot of industries. Mm. >> So, eh, that's just going faster and faster. You need to do less and less of the coding yourself. It's auto-generating, and that means that if you use these tools, they have enormous power. And we see that in the oil fund. We are one of the leading companies in finance when it comes to adopting these things. We use them everywhere. >> Ehm, and we just see what it does to productivity. It's incredible. And, eh, excuse me, I'm talking a bit too much here, but this really engages me. If you manage to create 20% productivity growth per year by using these tools, then within two or three years, you're 50% ahead of your competitors, and they will never catch up. >> Mm. >> Right? They are finished. If you don't get this into your businesses now, you are finished. >> But what's a concrete example of someone that can deliver that effect? >> Yes, we have it. We have it everywhere, right? We have it. How we trade, how we reduce trading costs, how we can predict better so that we can invest the money at the right time. Ehm, it's like, we see it in our legal department. We see it in how we monitor companies. Eh, it's, we see it in how we use communication and how we use our podcast preparations. We use it everywhere. Yes, but is it, can one imagine that, now here you can, here [laughter] you can correct me, but in, for example, the oil fund, which is largely much more complicated, and you can elaborate on this, but it's about, in a way, buying, buying correctly, understanding the world and selling correctly. >> Yes, >> it seems like something that could potentially be largely taken over by artificial intelligence. And if you follow, if you think like you talked about earlier, that there is an objective truth, then it's possibly something that can be calculated with enough data. >> Now, I think many people are working on exactly that. >> Yes, >> right. And I'm a bit humble about what we can achieve here at the oil fund. I don't think we can become the best in the world at using artificial intelligence in that specific way, because so many people are doing it and are involved in trading these markets. So I'm thinking more about processes and procedures, and that's where we use it. But you could say Norway is actually perfect for using artificial intelligence. >> We have high education, we are very digitized, and I won't say we hate working, but we are at least quite fond of being at the cabin. And the combination of these things is absolutely fantastic. >> Ehm, and then these tech companies say that companies that use this well, use it seven times more than other companies. And countries that use it well use it three times more than other countries. And now we see initiatives, for example, in Sweden, where they are trying to lift up the entire Swedish society. And this is something we, that I think the public and private sectors in Norway can do together. That we can really lift our country. >> Mm. >> It's really exciting. >> Because then you think it will go into almost, say, almost all processes and optimize and just, okay, nudge a little bit. Become a little better here. Solve that task a little faster, and then it sets a direction and pace for us, so to speak. >> Absolutely. Yes. >> But what, where do we end up then? What do we get out of it, so to speak? >> Well, we get better productivity, we get more done, >> and we increase our competitiveness against other countries. >> Mhm. But does it, does it take, like, the best or worst part of the job, do you think? >> No, it takes away all the worst parts. That is, you get rid of the boring stuff. >> So I have a kind of dream in the fund that we shouldn't do anything boring. That is, no one should do anything boring. So this lifts you up, right? And I see it in the fund that those who use this the most, they find it even more fun at work. >> Mm. >> That is, it's just fun to be a part of this. And we ensure that they have the best models and the best tools to be able to do this. So it's, eh, it's just fun. >> But, but that was the end, then, that in a way, eh, investments and stock trading are just a big computer that, in a way, buys and sells from each other. So why do you need humans in this? >> No, that's a good point, actually, and we think that we must have humans involved in this loop. We feel that's important. We want to have control over this. No, we think it's best when it comes to having control over these things. We >> You can just feed in an ethics prompt and see if it works just as well. >> Eh, absolutely. Absolutely. You can enter an ethics prompt and you can, it works perfectly fine. >> Hm. But what's left? Where, how human is it today? >> No, it's still dependent on people. But you could say that something called a technology gap has opened up. And that's the gap between what technology can actually do and what companies are capable of utilizing. And that gap is growing. >> So technology is becoming more and more advanced, but companies can't keep up with how they absorb it. So that technology gap is starting to become quite large. And then there are some types of companies that are good at it. I think, for example, in medical research and so on, they are very advanced. >> Mhm. Eh, and some other things, but then there are other types of companies that are lagging behind. >> Is that a bit of an investment question, or is it a mindset question? >> No, it's mindset. It's, it's extremely difficult to get people to change the way they work. >> I mean, we are ordinary animals. We hate changing anything, right? But >> I mean, I'm sure if you look at your life, how lazy are you? We need, now we're not going into detail about that, but >> no [laughter] don't start digging that up. No, but it is, it is quite, it is quite bad, probably. And, eh, so we don't like change, but I, I love change. >> Mhm. >> And, eh, so it's what can be achieved here. >> Do you, do you then, because now, okay, if, if there's a natural, like, resistance to change, then the one way in is to train yourself a bit, to use that AI bit, and in a way, in the rest of your life. Are you someone who uses it? Do you have, like, an assistant, so to speak, an AI assistant that you use? >> I use it, I use it for almost all the emails I send, I go through Cloud. >> Especially if it's in English, because I don't write English very well. So then >> I always check it, it comes out much better than it would, it looks more professional, right? It's like, it comes out in the right place and so on. >> Yes. >> Well, there, I think that's very good. But could you, could you come home after a long day, say, around 8 o'clock, just before you go to bed, and then you've been tired, then you put on a lovely, a lovely song, and then you put on some AI music. Do you know what, I don't even know what that is, who made that music I'm playing. According to Spotify, which we've had on our podcast, and you have two types of music. You have, like, you have mood music, which is just, just put it on, now I'm going to make dinner music. Yes. >> Or you have, or you have, like, artist-specific, as they call it, that you, I want to listen to Sting. >> Yes. >> And I'm more like moods, now I'm going to make dinner music, or now I'm going to get up early music. >> Does it matter if it's made by a human or AI? >> No, it doesn't matter to me. >> Is that true? >> Yes, as long as it's good music. I mean, the same with art. >> Yes. Do you do that? >> Yes. But why, then >> I mean, you have to look at the art and the music. Eh, you have to look at what the result is. Is it good music? So I don't care who made that music. >> But could you, yes, right. Because, could you buy, if there was a, could you sell your art collection and then buy just an AI-generated one? Now, you've given away, given away art [laughter] collection. But >> no, but of course, if it's good art, we have to look at things. We have to see what it is. But isn't there something about the experience of art or music, that there's a feeling behind it, or a lived life, or some kind of spirit, that you don't get if it just looks nice and is, eh, made by a robot? >> No, but that spirit, that spirit is in the art. So if, not all art captures the spirit. >> No. Right? I'm not that concerned about exactly what spirit it captures. Because I sit, I struggle with, I just try to listen to some AI music, and I think that might just be, like, the principle, or for my own sake, that I experience it as flatter. >> Yes, it is for now, but it won't be like that forever. >> No. >> But what, what makes a work of art great for you then? >> Well, it's that it engages you. It's that you don't finish with it. But it must be, it must be complicated. It must be something that makes you, that you don't finish with it quickly. That's what we call wall power. That is, you have a power, so to speak, where it hangs on the wall. But just take the AI thing, which is interesting. Now I think that we've spent quite a lot of time solving tasks a bit faster. So, for example, what took two days before, now takes over 5 minutes. >> But the whole process doesn't necessarily go any faster, right? Because there are the same meetings to have, and the same regulations, and so on. So now it's about working with workflow. >> Yes. >> And that is, and that is also quite heavy subject matter to achieve. So, but there are many ways to work on this. And then I think to get them into the company, the management has to talk about it all the time. And I don't see many leaders talking about this continuously >> as I think they should. Then you have to think about who you hire. They have to be more technological than they had to be before. >> And with us, we have ambassadors who are constantly working on it. And we have events, and we have mandatory training. So you have to, like, you just have to push something enormously here. >> Mhm. But aren't you, like, worried that it will, like, I don't know, take over the world and push us over the edge, or, because I feel that the AI bit is twofold. One is that it makes things more efficient, but at some point, they say that it can, yes, create its own consciousness and then the whole oil fund >> like. Absolutely. You have to do this responsibly. And we have, we have strict regulations, and we have rules for how we do this. Yes, do it in a responsible way. >> Yes. >> So, what's left for humans then, if art and music are to be made by AI, and large parts of work tasks, what do we end up doing? >> We end up talking to each other and getting closer to each other as humans. And I think that's important. In a world where there is more artificial intelligence, we must also have more human intelligence and more human communication. >> Mm. >> I think about that. But you haven't experienced AI shame, so to speak, thinking that it, like, degrades the process or the email or the meeting, that if people haven't had things processed by AI, they haven't understood it. >> Mhm. >> So when I, for example, need documents and so on, I don't want it to be, I want it to be auto-generated. That is, I want people to use it. I walk around the fund, right, on the floor, and just, yes, what are you doing now? Yes, what do you have on that screen? What do you have on that screen? Almost everyone now has, ehm, has a separate screen next to the other screen that we use for AI to run those types of processes. And, eh, 100% of the employees use these tools. And what's cool is that now we're almost up to 70% who actually code >> that is, who actually do this. >> And we have, like, our delivery teams that program and work on the web. We have our own, like, AI team that also works on solving, like, more central tasks. So we are just completely manic about it. >> But what is it that makes other Norwegian leaders and companies not jump on board and push it forward? >> No, I don't know. I don't know. I think, eh, perhaps what helps us a bit here is that we go out and talk to the big international companies and the best leaders in the world. And we get to talk to the big tech companies. I think that has been quite important for us. >> Yes. >> In getting this in here. >> Yes. Because you are in a position to travel around and meet people, both those you talk to in your podcast, but also those you obviously invest in. Can you tell us a bit about what those meetings are like, I mean, who are the people who are now, so to speak, running the world, or at least this business part of it? >> Yes, [laughter] that's a big question, but, eh, okay. Eh, an important part of my job is to try to understand what's happening in the world. And we find that out by traveling around and talking to these leaders. So I spend quite a lot of time on that. And then I thought, okay, I can sit here and have all this in my own head, or we can record it and make a podcast out of it, so that everyone in Norway can hear what these companies are saying. So that was the reason we made the podcast. Mm. >> And it has become much better than we had expected. >> So now we have, like, interviewed half of the 100 most important leaders in the world. >> So it is, it is quite cool. But, eh, how do we do this? Well, we do it a bit one-on-one, but we also have dinners in between, in London or New York or Milan or wherever it may be. And then we gather, let's say, eight top leaders from different industries. And then we sit for two hours around the table, and then it's a conversation. >> And then they tell, and then I just ask, "What's on your mind?" Eh, a completely open question, and then they tell me what they're thinking. And it's so exciting. And then we have, like, a communication or a conversation around the table. >> Why is it, because I've thought about this, why are dinners such a good setting for this? >> Food is the solution to everything, I think. Food is love, and doing, eating things together is very nice. >> And so people have to eat. >> Mhm. And then, but what we have found, for example, in New York, is that we invite them at 6 o'clock, and then we have them out at 8 o'clock, and then they are not out at 5 PM, and then they are out at 5 to, they are out at one minute to. >> That's how I arrange children's birthday parties. I have them on the weekend, so it's from one to three, and it's a very important set time, and then it's out. >> Yes. >> But is it, is it a lot, just for, like, dinners, for many, or at least for many, it's like a little party, so to speak? Is it like that? >> No alcohol. Not, and there is extremely little alcohol. >> Yes, >> it's like, maybe a glass, and maybe part of two bottles, and so on. It varies, of course, but it's >> in the US, there's extremely little alcohol. >> Eh, so it's not that at all. >> It's not like, it's not like that old theory that if you, like, have a shot and get a bit drunk together, then trust is strengthened. >> No, no, this world has moved quite a lot since then. No, this is top serious. >> Are there so many, like, do they know each other? That is, do you put them together? So are you, like, building a, like, a small social community, or how do you put them together? >> In Norway, top leaders know each other quite well, and they do in Sweden too, for example. >> Mhm. >> Not so much in London, they don't have much to do with each other, and not in the US. >> So there, many of them haven't met each other before. >> And that's also nice, and then you create these connections between these people. >> Eh, so it varies a bit from country to country, actually. Are they, are they a bit like the same personality types and people, or is it like, do you recognize any traits in those who reach the top in this? >> Yes, no, it's, eh, that's extremely exciting. We actually wrote a book about it, which people can gladly go and buy, called "Alt vi har lært om ledelse" (Everything We Have Learned About Leadership). >> And it goes exactly into this, about extracting from the podcasts, who are these people? What do they think about leadership and so on? What do they have in common? Well, many of them are quite extroverted.
So, there are probably more extroverted leaders than introverted ones. They have a lot of energy. I sort of think that CEO stands for Chief Energy Officer. They have a lot of energy. They wake up pretty early most of the time and they work a lot. [laughter] Well, it sounds like you're describing yourself. No, but I think it's a common trait among many leaders. They work very hard. It's not like you can't. A lot of work is involved for everyone who achieves things, and that applies to sports, and it applies to chess, or whatever it may be. I think people underestimate how much work is involved. Mhm. Do you consider yourself overrated or underrated? No, I mean, I am completely, I mean, it must be overrated in that case. I don't think so. Yes, I don't think, now one shouldn't pretend to be so incredibly modest and so on. But there are things I do that I believe are good. And there are many things I do that are bad. Yes, but I mean, I think that saying one is overrated is contradictory, because then... Yes, that's why I don't, that's why it's a bit silly not to answer that question. That's why I say there are things I do that I think are very good, and there are things I do that are really bad. Yes. No, because I think I am underrated. Yes, but you probably are too. Yes, but you do so many things, right, that aren't noticed, and you don't realize how much effort goes into all sorts of things and how hard you try and so on. So... No, but I would say overrated, and that's not to be arrogant, but I obviously get a lot of credit for many of the great things that happen in the oil fund, and it's not me doing it, right. It's 700 very skilled people who... who do things and who are very good, right? We have everything from, we have very skilled investors. We have, like, we have good... on the legal side. We have good compliance. We have good communication. We have good HR, right? So all the pieces here, we have a good risk department. So it's like, they do the job, and since you're the boss, you get a lot of the credit for it. And in addition, what is important not to underestimate, what is underestimated, is how important the Ministry of Finance has been to the oil fund's success. And there are many really capable people there who are involved in researching and... creating the mandate we have, which we invest according to, and laws and regulations that are important to us. But don't you sometimes think, you came from, like, you had hedge funds in London, and that appears to me as a somewhat more loose, free... business where you can jump on all opportunities... choose yourself. Is it sometimes... Well, that's not true, so that's also a kind of misunderstanding. What we... what we did was extremely structured. Yes. And low risk. Exactly. Yes. Yes. Because that's what I was wondering about, if it sometimes felt a bit like... boring or limiting to be part of... No, it's not boring at all. It's absolutely fantastically exciting. But is it like, if you had steered a smaller ship... Mhm. ...and could have steered it freely, would the growth have been greater? [laughter] ...you know what? If you had said to me, Nikolai, you can do whatever you want with the oil fund, it would look very similar to how it is now. Yes, but isn't it... it's a really sensible setup we have, because it's so large and so important that you need very strict rules, and you need, I think the profile we have, which is roughly 70% in stocks and 30% in bonds and so on, that's a very sensible composition. And even all those little things that one might tweak, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a very nice setup. A lot of thought has gone into this. And what's important to consider with the oil fund is, this is a process. It will be 30 years in May. Mhm. And... what are the important things? What is the reason for the oil fund's success? Well, it's the mandate from the Ministry of Finance, which is broadly politically anchored. That means that political parties have all had input into this. And if you change political leadership, the oil fund's philosophy doesn't change. That's very important. Then we have this fiscal rule that says you can use 3% of the fund each year. That's very important. So it's not like a honey pot where everyone just eats all the honey at once, right? This is meant to last for several generations. It's a generational fund. But but isn't it But isn't the result that it just... and then I must say the last thing is actually the last thing is transparency. This thing that everyone can see what we're doing all the time. That's important because it creates trust. And that's why we're out talking about the fund. That's why I'm sitting here in your fantastic podcast. It's to talk about the fund. To spread enlightenment and knowledge. That's important for trust. But isn't isn't some of this, the structure around it, correct and important because the fund is so large? Isn't it almost like it's so large that it imposes its own limitations? No, you can say when you are an investor, size can be negative in a way, but it's also positive. It allows us to operate extremely cost-effectively. Mm. So we are so cost-effective, and the focus on costs is so laser-like with us that you wouldn't believe it. Mm. Right? I'm the only one who has a secretary. Exactly. No one else has a secretary in the entire oil fund. But that doesn't sound rational. Everyone books their own tickets. But wouldn't it have been much more, I mean, is that really the optimal, is that the objectively best solution, or is it like... Norwegian puritanism, in a way? Yes, it's a bit Norwegian. It's a bit of Norwegian puritanism, but I think it fits well. I must say that I find it very nice when we fly around Europe. I sit in economy class. I think that's how it should be. Yes. Yes, that's fine, but aren't there many people who are the sharpest minds in the entire country sitting and making investment decisions and, in a way, making our prosperity and wealth grow, and then they have to sit and book flight tickets? Don't you have to get someone to do that job, and then... Yes, they do now through artificial intelligence, right? Because now you have agents that can do it for you, right? So we save a lot of time. No, that's of course a good question, but I think it's a pretty important signaling effect to have. Yes, but it's not... And then you say that it's Norway's most skilled minds who are in the oil fund. And you know what, you're absolutely right about that, because there are so many capable people there, and we recruit better and better and better. But what do you think about that... like wave of young people, I mean, I'm thinking of young people who are into stock saving and investments. Is that... is that something you cheer on, in a way? Yes. Yes, but isn't it, because you don't find it a bit... worrying that people are sitting and putting all their money into investments for the future and [laughter] ...so I don't know how much money they're actually putting in, but they're at least gaining good experience. And we are supporting something called Women's Investment Club, because it's a fact that there's a minority of women in this industry. And we're trying to improve that. And we believe women, in many ways, can be better asset managers than men. They are more long-term, look more at relationships, they are more skilled in many things. Is that true, not just a prejudice? It's true. Huh? Interesting. But isn't it, because you've said other things, and you have quite a broad background yourself. You have an interest in art, you've studied different things. Isn't there a risk that you become a kind of one-track piggy bank person from a young age, in a way? They have to use their... their confirmation money, why should it be put into stocks? No, no, no, that's absolutely the wrong approach. Yes. Yes. No, absolutely. You shouldn't save money when you're young. You should spend it. Yes. Right? And you should spend it to create as much happiness as possible, you should spend it on experiences with friends and family. That's what creates the most happiness. Is that true? Yes. Yes. So that's objective. You have... Yes. I have that easily. Yes. What do you spend your money on? Yes, I spend it. I'm out in nature a lot. I'm out in the woods and in the mountains a lot. That doesn't cost much. No. So [laughter] ...I spend a little money on sailing. Yes. But I don't have a huge amount of spending. No, but is that because you like saving, or is it because you just... No, because I don't think so. I don't think the things I value most cost a lot of money. But so you, in a way, you like, but you like earning money? Yes. I mean, I think it's fun to earn. Okay. So, um, first, I just have to say, what do I like best? Well, for example, tonight I'm going out to eat with a friend of mine. We're eating pizza at Olivia. I think that's a great pizza. All the cinema. Chicken pizza. Delicious. Mm. Right? And then maybe we'll share a bottle of wine or something. And it doesn't have to be expensive, right? It's not, it's not. But is it because the cash register goes up in your head and you think, yes, okay, here I am at Olivia buying a... pizza, can it... No, there's no cash register, but it's just that I like that pizza. It's just, I just think it's the best. Right? I love going to the beach. It costs little money. And I love going into the woods and picking mushrooms. It's not that expensive, right? You need a mushroom club. But so, so. But okay, do I think it's fun to earn money? It's not that, it's not that I think. The thing is, if you are, if you are good at ski jumping, you get gold medals in your cabinet. Eh, if you're good at finance, you end up with some money. So money is really just a way of telling you that you're good at what you do. Mm. And that's what I've thought, okay, you have to be good at this craft. And if you make good decisions, then money comes out in the end, right? If we in the oil fund are good at what we do, then money comes out in the end. Yes. It's more of a consequence. Yes. It's just a natural consequence. Yes. I have had, like, earlier in the podcast, we had Bjørn Mannsverk, who has been with you. Yes. Yes. Right? And he talks about, like, a kind of performance or a goal, that you should optimize and make the process as good as possible. And then the goal will follow. And I found it a bit difficult to understand how that works in... a business that is so measurable. That's one of the most important things our sports psychologists do. We have two of them. We have Bjørn Mans and Anders Meland. And this focus on process. I mean, if you're just standing at the top of the jump, right? If you're standing at the top of the jump, you're not thinking, now I'm going to jump far. You're not thinking that. You're not thinking, if you're going to... No, you're not thinking that. You're thinking, now I'm going to sit like this, and when I get over there, I'm going to stretch myself, and then when I get over there, I'm going to stretch myself. And if you do everything right, then the length is a function of that process. Mhm. My daughter runs a cocktail bar in New York, and she was talking about this. So I said, but listen here, you mustn't think about making money from cocktails. You must think about making sure that every person who comes into that bar has the nicest time they've ever had. Mm. And if they do, then you will make money. Yes. Right? But you mustn't, you mustn't think about that money, you just have to think about the process. Now we have to do what's right. When the person comes in, they must be greeted with a smile. Within so many seconds, they must have a menu. Within so many minutes, they should have a drink. And then when it's empty, someone must come and ask, would you like another one? Right? That's a process. And and then it's running at a profit. Yes. But how is it in, can you just explain, because especially for me and perhaps for some others, it's difficult to fully understand exactly how a day or a process for someone sitting in the oil fund and investing works. What would be, like, some steps along the way for an optimal process? I mean, how can one work with that as someone who sits and invests with you? Yes, I mean, let's say you're a portfolio manager. That's who sits and invests, right, in companies. They meet with the companies, and they have 3,000 company meetings. I mean, collectively, these portfolios have 3,000 company meetings. No, what, I mean, excuse me, what does that mean? It means we meet the CEOs or the CFOs of these companies that they are invested in... to hear if this is good stuff or not. 3,000, I mean, over what time period? Over a year. Here we use artificial intelligence to improve that process and make it more efficient. Yes. Surely before a meeting, you will get... you get all the information you've had previously. This is then in a system, because we have a special way of... asking questions to the companies. We have a structure for our meetings. Mhm. So all of this is then prepared for you so that you can go into a meeting, and you have a preparation that has been completed. Yes. And then, right, so then it's like, you know that if the investment doesn't, say, give the return you could dream of, then you should know that we asked all the right questions. We made an assessment, we set aside a decent amount of money, and then something else happened that... So we have... so we have a simulator that sort of measures why it might have gone well or why it didn't go well. And it could be, okay, how well have you done in those types of companies before? Are there many others who like that company? How has the company performed recently? So all these things are then fed into a system, and then it tells you what your weaknesses are. For example, now you're going to buy a million dollars worth of Apple. Yes. Then it comes to you, but listen, Apple, you've never made money in Apple. It's 9 AM, and you make decisions at 3 PM. Your best decisions are for 5 million dollars, not 1 million dollars. Now everyone likes Apple. You do best when you buy something that no one else likes, right? So you get all of this... Exactly. Yes. Right in your face. Yes. So just like, okay, think again. Think again. Yes. We have created such a simulator. It's very good. So cool. But for that, it's about dealing with, you can have, like, the process, and then you deal with it, and that probably starts a bit with the changing world. Mhm. ...and say, for example, President Trump in the USA, who comes up with, I mean, there have been 12 barriers that have gone up and down. There have been changing conditions. A lot is happening. So, what do you think about the uncertainty that that creates for others? Does it create as much uncertainty for you as it does for... Yes, there has never been more uncertainty than there is now. So the future is completely unpredictable... in different ways, actually. So I have a cabin trip with some friends, and then we sit down and try to predict what will happen in the next year, and then we play it back, and we record it on tape. Yes. Or phone, not tape, really, but in any case, we play back what we had... predicted for the previous year, and we were 80% wrong, right? We hadn't thought that Trump would win the election. We hadn't predicted that there would be 12 barriers. None of those things had we predicted. And if you had told me what actually would happen, I would have thought the stock market would go down 25%, and instead, it's up 20%, right? So it's terribly difficult to predict what will happen. So I think what's most important now is that you, that you work with speed in your organization. You have to be able to adapt very quickly, and you have to be more robust. And that means you have to have, you have to have some money in the bank. You have to be aware that really bad things can happen. And then you have to manage expectations. And that's what we're doing in the fund, right? I mean, this fund will not continue to go up to the sky. It has gone up for 30 years, more or less every year. And that will not continue. And we have to be fully aware of that. Mhm. Is it, like, how there have been some discussions around the ethics, and it's largely delegated to other bodies than yourselves, although you have guidelines to follow. Is it, like, simplifying to just think, we deal with the landscape as it is, and we have to make money, and that's it, or does some form of morality come into these decisions? Yes, this is a big question, naturally. But it's important to have an overarching rule, and that is that we must make money. Mm. We must make money with acceptable risk and within the norm system and within the ethical... frameworks that we have. And then it's divided a bit so that we have an ethics council that has done this historically. And now there's a review of how the ethics council works... and what role they will have going forward and how they will do this. So a committee led by Jedrem has been appointed to review this. So we will get answers to this during the year. Mhm. Had I have... this is a, this is perhaps a bit of a far-fetched theory, but what would have been the consequence of organizing it in a slightly different way, so that you just removed, in a way, all ethics from this, and then you invested for absolute maximum profit, and then you gave a... a kind of action rule, which you somehow gave to good causes. Would that have made it easier or harder? No, but I think that we, we have to make money. That's important. But we have to, we have these rules too. You see, it's pretty bad business to engage in corruption and... and to damage the environment and climate. It's bad business. Yes, is it? Yes, it's totally bad. It's not like pointing fingers and saying that... No, no, it's really bad business. Because the thing is, if you're just invested in one company, maybe that's good business. But if you're invested in 9,000 companies, and you have a company that pollutes, you pick that up in all your other companies. So we, who are long-term, who own a piece of the whole world, we have to care. And we do. How do you manage to be so long-term? Isn't that terribly difficult? Eh, yes, it's an art to be long-term. And I think we should be even more long-term in the fund. You have, as I see it, you have the most short-term, they are speculators, and then you have investors, and then you have owners. And I think we are investors now, but we have to think more like owners. Yes. How is that different? Yes. Then you think even more long-term. Like the Wallenbergs in Sweden. Exactly. How do they think? No, they think in generations. They think very... Yes. So it's like Chinese, in a way? I don't know if it's real, but people talk about China as a thousand-year perspective, more or less. I mean, it's much longer. Yes. It's much longer. Um, so I think we need to be more long-term, and it's very difficult to be long-term because there's a lot of noise. Yes. But, how do you become long-term? No, I think you go to Bhutan and sit in a temple and drink green tea with a monk, and then you learn what time is. Sit there for five years. Mhm. Now, there are, of course, big agreements, and India is getting closer to Europe, and you see, like... the world is changing, opening up new opportunities? No, I mean, the success here is that we have been spread all over the world, right? So we participate in value creation all over the world. We have invested in China and India and... Europe and the USA and South America. We are invested everywhere. Mhm. Where is it that you, are there any places you can't trade now that you think, ah, soon I'll go in there, or that would have been a great opportunity? No, we are frozen in Russia, for example. Yes. Um, but it's, but so it's, it's very few, there are very few countries that are excluded. Yes, but isn't it, but now, excuse me, now I might ask a stupid question, but but there is, there is a risk in some, like, developing countries, and you have, like, some limitations there, or is that wrong? Yes, there is risk in developing countries. Yes, but, I mean, are there limitations on how much you can invest or how you can invest in... Yes, it's in the mandate, in a way. It's in the trading list, so it's... we can't, like, put all the money into Uganda, for example. No. No. But could it have been interesting to put more money into Uganda, or is it... Yes, that's a process that we run, possibly together with the Ministry of Finance, where you have to, if you look at these index weights, it goes through a kind of process. Mhm. So, uh, we'll see what comes out. There's another committee now, an expert committee, that just released a report where they talk about us looking at the way we spread the fund, so diversification. So that's also a process that... But is it a concern, is it like a concern that the USA and big tech are too heavily involved? Yes, I mean, that's what has happened is that these technology companies have done very well, so now the 10 largest companies are actually 20% of the fund... of the shares in the fund. And... individual companies are now larger than entire countries, right? Mhm. Yes. ...And that's what this report points out, that this concentration risk is greater than it has been before. That one must look at diversification. So that's also another process that is ongoing now. So it's good to have these ongoing processes. Are you afraid that, because it's back to the AI part, that there is a, and you are now very convincing about how this can revolutionize what we do, but is there a danger that it's some kind of bubble? Yes, there is a danger of that, and there are many intelligent people who point out that this has gone a bit... gone up a bit too much. Yes. So we'll see if that's right or not. I'm not sure, but time will tell. But what do you think, or how do you relate to that possibility? No, I don't have a very strong opinion. Many of them are quite expensive and have gone up a lot, but whether it's a bubble or not, I don't think I should have a strong opinion on that. There is a big risk in the fund that if we get a large correction in artificial intelligence stocks, the fund could quickly go down by a third. Mhm. And that's a lot. How do you think Norwegians would handle that? I think Norwegians would handle it just fine because Norwegians have an incredible ability to take things that go up and down. And... that's perhaps one of the things that surprised me when I ran my previous fund. It was like the Norwegian investors, I mean, they weren't fools. They were really professional, and they sat through the financial crisis. No one came and wanted their money out. They sat there. They understood it. And I think that's partly because, right, we are a country that has been involved with... cyclical things. We've been involved with fishing, and we've been involved with metals, and we've been involved with shipping, things that go up and down. We're rich one day, and then we're millionaires the next. And it's been like that for a very long time, right? You catch a herring, you close off a fjord, suddenly you have more money than you can imagine. And then there are five years without herring, right? So [laughter] that's how we've operated. And it's fascinating. Norwegians are robust people. But are you worried? Are you worried that we're not, that there are many who are now worried that, I mean, Norway or Norwegians, that it's going too fast, that the framework conditions are too poor for starting new businesses, for bringing forward new companies? I don't have an opinion on Norwegian framework conditions, because it's important that I don't say anything about Norwegian business policy. But what I do say something about is that if we use more artificial intelligence, there will be more facts. Mhm. But we don't, but... and that we have unique conditions to achieve this, and that it's something that private business and the public sector can do together. That's very exciting. Yes. If they just wake up. Yes. Many have woken up, but I think that here we just have to... get our act together. I mean, can things go too fast? Aren't you afraid that you, like, okay, you have the accelerator, I assume, at work and in life. Do you think that sometimes you need a brake? Yes, the whole world. But the whole world is a brake. [laughter] Yes, it is. Yes. Yes. There are a thousand things that brake, that brake you. Yes, right? Yes. There are processes, and there are people who move a bit slower, or it's just, there's a lot of braking. But don't you have any doubts? Don't you have any, I mean, isn't it like, I need some time to figure this out? Yes. Yes, but that's what we talked about, that there is an objective truth. So sometimes you have to take time to figure out what you think the truth is. Mhm. Of course. Yes. Things have to go through processes sometimes. You have to have different views and then figure out what it is. But once you've decided, you have to act. Yes. Yes. No, I'm not afraid of that. Can you, I mean, speaking of the Law of Jante, are you affected by it at all? No, I wouldn't say so. Yes, but you have, you get some criticism sometimes, and I perceive that it's partly because you, yes, because you have a bit of gas and stick your neck out a bit, I mean, not stick your neck out, but but operate in a slightly un-Norwegian way. No, I wouldn't call it the Law of Jante, but but yes, I have lived abroad, right? I lived in London for 30 years, so of course my communication style isn't exactly typically Norwegian. And I also think it's quite important that when you communicate with people in other countries, you can't communicate in Norwegian. You have to adapt a bit. Yes. What's the difference? No, right? I mean, when you, when you write to Americans, you add a bit. Yes. I mean, you add enthusiasm. You add, right? You can't, like, hide your light under a bushel. You have to... you have to. Yes, I think one can be a bit optimistic, right? I usually end my emails with "onwards and upwards." That's quite a... that's quite a positive statement. It's not exactly typically Norwegian, right? But when you're like, it's a bit more like, a bit more friendly, a bit more warmth. Yes. I think it's a bit, I think it's enthusiasm, and then to add some enthusiasm, to add some humor. But isn't it frustrating to be in Norway? There's so little enthusiasm. No, no, no. There's a lot of enthusiasm in Norway. Yes. Yes. I love living in Norway. It's absolutely fantastic. Yes. Yes. You have to say that. But it's, but people aren't, it sounds much more fun for you to be in the USA, like, it's just, we're driving on. It's fun. You know what? It's fun to be in the USA, and it's fun to be in Norway, and it's fun to be in India, and it's fun to be in Europe. Yes. But it's fun, you know. Life is exciting. Yes. But if you, there's a lot more braking around you in Norway than there would be if... Yes. Yes. Am I sure if that's a bad thing? [laughter] No. It's so exciting. I think we can wrap up here again. Nik. Thank you so much for coming. Thanks for coming. Oh, great. Tra Lars is a podcast made by me, Lars Glomnes. The producer is Peter Dotland, and the responsible editor at Aftenposten is Trine Eidersen. Please follow us wherever you listen to podcasts to get a notification next time an episode is released.