Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Monday, September 29th brief, it is 8:35 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had an alert on the M15 indicator indicating a trend change right here. So there was the possibility to open this long. We also saw that we had closed the FVG that was right here. We see that we had taken the liquidity here. Unfortunately, I was not in front of the screen yesterday. I was busy. Uh, so we had this trend change that indicated to us that it was clearly probable that we would have a bullish movement. On the other hand, there were still a lot of shorts, a lot of longs. So it was complicated to know the direction we were going to go. We had quite a few false starts on M15. We had, in particular, this bearish choch, this bearish cho also here, this break of structure, this break of structure, etc. So, we had quite a few things that indicated to us that it was rather mixed. But if we switched to H1, we clearly saw that we were bullish. We had not validated a bearish trend change. Then, we made our trend change here. Then, we revalidated an intermediate break of structure here, a second intermediate break of structure here. Finally, a real break of structure here. And so, in fact, we could have gone long in the FVG, in the return of this FVG to then target the liquidities that were above this zone. There. Personally, I did not trade yesterday. I was waiting for this plan in which we were going to seek the 108287 dollars, so below the liquidity here in the zone of the entire movement. And the goal was to simply take the liquidities, reintegrate this range and then be able to make the movement that we made exactly tonight. So there, the plan was not good. Clearly, it was good but there, a bit too much, we got front-run anyway. There. And, and so there, that was the indicator that could have indicated it to us if you had it. Clearly, for those who have it, you have the possibility to set up trend change alerts, whether it's on M15, H1, etc. So for that, you simply have to click on it. You put internal, internal, so bullish choch, simply. And you can also put bullish choch, simply, so that it is the big chochs that are defined. But the best are the internal ones, simply, because it is those with the small dotted lines that will ring, otherwise the bullish chochs. It will be those, so the big chochs, simply, that are validated. So there, we were, we were on that. If you want the indicator, I will put it in the pinned comment. It is free until tomorrow. After that, you have the possibility to get it in presale, it will be cheaper. So, it is 25% cheaper if you get it in presale. After September 30th, it will be a bit more expensive. So do not hesitate to get it before that date. Anyway, it will be disconnected for all those who currently have it in the free period tomorrow evening at midnight. So be careful about that. Otherwise, if we look technically, well, we have clearly turned bullish. We see that we have turned bullish, whether it's on H1, H4, etc. But there, the bottom, I don't like it too much, huh. Clearly, we frankly have completely bearish things, I find here. This accumulation was too long. We clearly see that, well, there are liquidities that have accumulated below. Here, we are on an equal high. We have therefore a lot of liquidation that is also accumulating around 108350 dollars. So logically, we should return there and if we have to return to this zone, logically the starting point would be from this zone, either the H4 FVG that we have right here between 113150 dollars and 112580 dollars. You will see that we do not have hyper bullish data either when we look at the numbers. You will see that there are quite a few things that indicate to us that we could go a little lower. In terms of economic news, today, we don't have much. We simply have a speech from Trump at 7:15 PM. Expect quite a bit of movement if he says something crazy again. So be careful between 7:15 PM and 7:45 PM, we risk having quite a bit happening. In terms of cryptoBubble, what we see is that we have green almost everywhere. It's normal, we had a rebound on Bitcoin. The Alts are regaining color, notably the Mix, which is performing quite well at the moment. As soon as we have a rebound on Bitcoin, the Mix outperforms all others, and as soon as we have a dump, it doesn't get hit too hard either. So it's quite interesting in my opinion to trade it during H4 FVGs, H1 FVGs in these returns. It can be really interesting. Aster is more or less the same. In terms of funding open interest, what we see is that currently it's rather longs that are being opened on this zone. It's rather longs. We see an increase in open interest with an increase in funding, which means that predominantly they are longs. If we look here, it was predominantly shorts that were opened, so that meant simply that it was logical to go a bit higher. We had a pump in open interest with a dump in funding. Here we had a small rebound on open interest with a rebound in funding as well. And otherwise here, what we saw was that shorts were being closed. We see a decrease in open interest with an increase in funding, and here it was predominantly shorts that were opened, given that we had an increase in open interest with a majority decrease in funding. So which means that here logically we were accumulating liquidations to the north and therefore logically it was logical to go and seek those liquidations to the north. We went a little higher than the liquidations, simply because they were present around 110 dollars up to 11700 dollars. We had a cluster that extended up to 111800 dollars. We went to get it. Currently, we don't have much that clearly indicates that we can go much higher. Except, if we have liquidations to seek higher, but they are not very significant amounts either. So it could be interesting in my opinion to have a dump soon. In any case, to go and seek the liquidations that are in the 108322 dollars and which extend up to 107800 or even 106816 dollars. In terms of Max Pain Price liquidation, we see that over 3 days, we clearly have much more to liquidate if we go to 108322 than if we go to 112929. So it could be interesting to dump now or to go and seek the H4 FVG I was talking about. It could be interesting in my opinion. In terms of what the whales are doing, the whales are selling this movement. They did not buy it. They are not the ones who propagated this movement, it is rather the micro whales and behind it the liquidation cascades that occurred. We clearly see that even at the level of micro whale sales, we have a price divergence, huh. Clearly, we have had a good sale on this. Then we had a buyback, and this buyback was not successful. Clearly, the price is reacting rather poorly. So that means that if micro whales start selling, we have whales selling currently. And therefore, logically, we could have a real dump on Bitcoin to go and seek the liquidations that are right here. So logically, we should be close to a dump to go and seek these liquidations. I remain bullish currently as long as I don't see at least an M15 setup, but in any case, logically, we should seek at least 109000 dollars. I even think we can go down to 108300 dollars. So if there was a short zone, logically, if we switch to H4, it would rather be this one. If we go to seek, just take the liquidity at 112587 dollars and then have a rejection, it could be really interesting in my opinion to open a short to then go and seek the liquidations that are in this zone, or below these liquidations to then potentially have a short-term rebound. Now, we will see what happens if we make a bullish movement like this or if we completely go down. So, clearly for now, I remain bearish. I don't like this bottom at all, even if yes, we liquidated below this zone. It's not necessarily an equal high when we look and zoom in a little. We are not on an equal high either, we see it right here. But there, we must still tell ourselves one thing, is that it still represents an equal high. We are, we are on that, we are on a wick of nearly, if we put this, we did 575 and we have a wick at 565. Clearly, a 10 dollar wick is not necessarily a liquidity grab, it represents more an equal high. So clearly, it's not necessarily interesting for me to say that there is no equal high given that we have a lot of liquidation to seek below. So there, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, to like this video and to comment what you think. As long as I don't have at least an M15 setup, I will not short. Here, clearly, we don't have much, it's not enough. This small trend change is not enough in my opinion. We could very well come, so there, we see that we have an equal high also here. We could very well come, so simply wick and rebound. Then we validate, so we revalidate a trend change, we revalidate a bearish trend change and then we could really go. So what would be interesting is to see a sweep of these liquidities and then have an M15 trend change. But for now, I will not short now. In any case, for now, we are still bullish. So there, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, to like this video and to comment what you think. Do not hesitate also to try the indicator. So you still have 24 hours to try it and then decide yes or no if you get it or not. But there, in any case, it is free until tomorrow evening and there is a presale offer currently until tomorrow evening as well. I wish you a good day. See you tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.