Transcription
All assets are falling across the board, what happened? Gold is falling, silver is falling, Bitcoin is falling, US stocks are falling, oil, the cost of everything, is falling. Hey, how is this possible? Oil is falling. Honestly, it should be that the cost of everything is cheap, production costs are lower, or transportation costs are lower. Everything else should go up, right? Or is this a recession? Economic recession? Is there a recession happening now? Yes, in bits and pieces, but it's not the big picture yet. Which is true, if it weren't for the fact that all assets are falling together, their value is dropping simultaneously right now, which is unlikely. If the truth is that all assets still have the same value, but they are all falling across the board, it's because the ruler has gotten bigger. So, what is this ruler? In this clip, we will explain what the asset price ruler is, who controls this ruler, and in the near future, will this ruler get bigger, making all assets look smaller, or will this ruler get smaller, making all assets look bigger, and the price will surge up. Support the clip "All Assets Falling Because of the US Dollar Alone" from the Money Monster channel by scanning this QR code. You can also support the Money Monster channel very easily by liking, sharing, and commenting. If you haven't subscribed yet, don't forget to subscribe. And if you want to support the Money Monster channel to continue making fun and independent content like this for a long time, you can become a member. Thank you. What assets are falling across the board? Let's look at this chart first. We will only talk about specific commodities. We will go back to look at the picture from May onwards. Crude oil has decreased by 30%. Gold has fallen by -10%. Silver is at -20%. Aluminum or iron is at -10%. Bitcoin has dropped 20% in just over a month. As for the US stock market, looking at the S&P 500, it's sideways right now, probably choosing a direction. Why, why are they all falling together? It's like they agreed, "Let's all fall in value together right now?" That doesn't seem right. Or if you say, "Oh, the war is not ending." The US is going to sign a ceasefire with Iran. Israel is attacking Lebanon. The world is not peaceful. Hamas says they will open, Iran says they will continue to close. How interested are viewers right now in war news? I'll tell you, because I'm so bored of war. The writer is bored, how can the viewers not be bored? And this latest news that says Iran will not open anymore, the world is starting to not care much anymore. Okay, noted that you won't open anymore. Let's look at the market. If we look at the Brent Crude Oil Price chart, we will see that the oil price has increased slightly compared to March when the first Iran war happened. Oh, the Brent crude oil price went up to over $100 per barrel. But now, the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz is almost zero. But the oil price is still around $76 per barrel. So, if you ask the market, the market is shocked, but not as much as at the beginning of the first war. Therefore, this point where the oil price has fallen so deeply, honestly, it should be an opportunity for other assets, right? Because the fall in oil prices means lower production costs and lower transportation costs. This means inflation should decrease. This means the profitability of listed companies should increase. This means stocks should increase, right? But the strangeness is that oil prices have fallen a lot, but stocks, especially hyper-scalers, which are the big AI giants like Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, etc., oil is falling, hyper-scaler stocks are falling too. Look at this chart, compare them. You will see that since the end of June until now, oil prices have fallen a lot, right? Hyper-scaler stocks have also fallen a lot, falling to the same depth on the same scale. Many people see this and say, "Oh, could it be a recession?" If everything is going to fall this much, oil is falling, everything is falling, costs are falling, but stocks are not rising. This must be a recession. Economic recession. Because when the world experiences a recession, the economy shrinks. When the economy shrinks, the money in the economy shrinks. This leads to a decrease in demand for goods and services. And when demand decreases, production of goods and services decreases. And when production decreases, the demand for raw materials and transportation decreases. And when people want to produce less and transport less, it means the demand for oil decreases. Therefore, if oil prices are falling, it might have nothing to do with opening or closing the Strait of Hormuz. No, it might just be that the economy is shrinking, demand for oil is decreasing, so oil prices are falling, and that's why stocks are not rising. Or there might be another hypothesis. That no, it's not related to the economy shrinking that much. Because, honestly, the economy is not good, but is it shrinking that severely? There's no pandemic. Wars are limited. It's just there. People are still eating and spending. It's not shrinking that much. But why are all asset prices falling together? Could it be because the ruler has gotten bigger, making assets look smaller, and the prices look lower? Let's look at this, Mr. Tor. Let's set up a division. Let's take all assets and make them icons. The icons will be gold, silver, oil, iron, aluminum, Bitcoin, and US stocks. Let's arrange them. Then, draw a division line. All of this will be divided by a ruler called the US Dollar. If the US Dollar is strong, this line will get longer and bigger. The assets above remain the same, but they look smaller. And when the dollar weakens, this line gets smaller. The assets remain the same, but they look bigger. Do you see? All these assets, whether it's oil, gold, silver, iron, Bitcoin, or US stocks, are valued in US dollars, right? And 90% of the trading of these assets is done in US dollars. Therefore, if the US Dollar is strong, the prices of these will look lower. But if the US Dollar weakens, the prices of these commodities will look higher. Do you get it? So, it might be true, I'm so bored of whether Hormuz opens or closes. If you are truly interested in money and gold, instead of focusing on whether Hormuz opens or closes, it's better to focus on whether the US Dollar will strengthen or weaken. So, let's look at the Dollar Index, DXY. Let's go back from the beginning of 2026 until now. The Dollar Index has strengthened. DXY was around 96. Today, July 13, 2026, DXY is around 101, an increase of about 5%, which is a lot. So, let's see if our hypothesis is true: if the dollar strengthens, commodities and other assets weaken. Let's compare the charts. DXY, or Dollar Index, is the white line. Commodities, or commodity assets, are the blue line. We will see this relationship clearly. Every time DXY, or the white line, falls, commodities rise. And every time DXY, or the white line, rises, commodities, or the blue line, fall. And to see the picture more clearly, let's invert the commodities. We will see that at the end, when the dollar strengthened a lot, commodities plunged. And if we go back, we will see a broader historical picture. We will see that 90% of the time, commodity asset prices fall, not because of recession, not because of insufficient supply, but because the ruler, or the US Dollar, is strong. And this, if we want to explain it to the stock market, the S&P 500, let's compare DXY with the S&P 500. Let DXY be white and S&P 500 be orange. As usual, we will see that every time DXY strengthens, the S&P 500 (orange) falls. This has happened many times since 2008, 2015, 2020. Therefore, for this reason, looking back to the beginning of 2026, investors would have been incredibly rich, because gold, silver, US stocks, all reached all-time highs. Because why? Because at that time, DXY, the Dollar Index, had fallen very deeply. At this point, many people say, "Okay, I've watched this far, I understand that the US Dollar, or DXY, is the ruler, the ruler that measures the price of all assets." And what can we do with that? I can tell you that with this ruler system, we can do absolutely nothing. But what we can do is asset allocation. How to prepare, how to position ourselves. And we will know what to look at, what policies to look at, and what assets to look at. And it will narrow down the market reading. So, who should we look at? Because in the equation, all assets are divided by the US Dollar, right? Therefore, the only person who has the power to press the button to make asset prices rise or fall globally is the person who controls the US Dollar. And who controls the US Dollar? The US government? Yes, but not entirely. Because the person who truly moves this button is the US Federal Reserve. Because the Fed has the power to raise or lower US interest rates, right? And the Fed has the ability to adjust the yield of 2-year US Treasury bonds. If you think, "Oh, if the Fed controls the yield of government bonds, why only the 2-year?" Because they can only control that. Longer-term ones, like 10-year, 30-year, the Fed cannot control. Those depend purely on market mechanisms. Let's get back to what the Fed can control. Let's look at the chart of the 2-year US Treasury yield compared to the Dollar Index. Remember in 2022? What happened in 2022? The Fed raised interest rates. The Fed stepped on the gas pedal hard, raising interest rates. So, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, and the DXY also rose together. At that moment, I remember interest rates surged. Oh, this person was watching the Bitcoin chart. I watched it from 6,000 to 40,000. Then the Fed raised interest rates. Oh, Bitcoin plunged to what? 17,000, 15,000. Now let's compare with the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is exciting because most hyper-scalers are in it, right? And look, since the beginning of 2026, the Fed has not lowered interest rates, right? Interest rates seem to be high. The booming Nasdaq AI is not booming. It's been neutered. It's just sideways like that. But if we look at the Nasdaq together with the 2-year US Treasury yield as a big picture, going back to 2023, after raising interest rates, we will see that the Nasdaq has boomed for a long time, from 2023 until now. Why? Because the 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen during that entire period. So, let me emphasize again, it's the Fed, the Fed alone. If the Fed raises interest rates, the Dollar Index, or the ruler used to measure the price of the rest of the world's assets, gets bigger, and the remaining assets shrink, their prices fall. But if the Fed lowers interest rates, the US Dollar gets smaller, the ruler gets smaller, and the prices of all assets will rise on their own. So, the question is very simple. If you follow finance channels, not just mine, just follow finance channels. What makes the Fed raise or lower interest rates? The extremely simple answer is inflation. The Fed's primary responsibility is to keep the country within its inflation target. The US inflation target is 2%. But right now, it's 4.2%. So, if inflation is high, what the Fed must do is raise interest rates. But if inflation is low, what the Fed must do is lower interest rates. So, the question is, where is the world's situation right now? What is happening now is an energy crisis. That's the thing everyone is bored with, like, "Oh, wars are about to break out, will Hormuz open or close, I don't want to know." That is the most important thing to know. Because the volume of oil exports through Hormuz into the world is 20%. From the first day it closed until today, it's still 20%. And if Hormuz doesn't open, oil, a crucial factor in production costs and transportation costs for the whole world, is gone. The question is, how much oil reserves do countries have left? How many days are left? And if they run out, how will we live? Now, if we look at the near future, if the war doesn't end, inflation will rise. And if inflation rises, it means the Fed has to raise interest rates. So, if the war doesn't end, an energy crisis will definitely occur. And if an energy crisis occurs, production costs and transportation costs will increase. This means inflation will increase. This means the Fed will have to raise interest rates. And if the Fed raises interest rates, it means the Dollar, or DXY, the ruler that measures the price of the rest of the world's assets, will get bigger, causing asset prices to shrink further and fall more. You might ask, "Hey, if the war doesn't end, will all these assets fall like today?" The answer is no, not like today. Because they will fall even deeper.