Transcription
Today's number, guys, is 100 because something happens in midterm election years that we need to talk about as traders and investors. And what Wall Street is doing right now has us all a little bit worried. They're selling big tech while the rest of the market is going up. And this means that there could be something wrong with the economy underneath the hood. Yes, yields are about to break to potentially new lows. And this means everything. So, let's go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos to better understand exactly what we need to be paying attention to. See you soon, guys. This will be a very good one.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson. It's great to have you here. And today we're discussing the macro, what Wall Street's been up to, and of course, the flows that matter. Because guys, as you know, following the flow and the big money movements is the key to these markets. Let's start though by discussing what retail's up to. What you and I and everybody else seems to be doing is jumping in on this market. And according to the latest stats here from JP Morgan Equities, you can see that we have hitting some massive imbalance levels. Basically, for layman's terms, this means that everybody is starting to get hyped on different areas of the market or maybe even just trying to buy the dip on software and tech. And when this type of thing happens, it can often lead into a pullback in markets. Maybe not a crash, but definitely something we need to be paying attention to. Some more notable ones occurred during, of course, the late end of 2021 into the fall of 22. And of course, we also saw a similar thing happen before Liberation Day last year. And this makes us wonder whether there's something a little bit weak underneath the hood. So, let's discuss this together, go through the key leads, and then of course go into the charts and the things that we need to be looking at in more detail.
But first off, this is actually the worst start for the S&P 500 in terms of its performance versus the world performance during 2026. And you can see here it's really starting to accelerate towards the downside, mostly led by AI concerns and of course the Magnificent 7 that we've been talking about here on the channel for the last 3 to four months, particularly post the rate cut. We've seen a change in structure of markets and let's just say that's not notoriously good and maybe not enough people are talking about what it really means. You might think it's broadening. It is and that means there's opportunity but at the same time there is a certain level of risk. Now let's discuss that risk. And I think this chart here from Barry Gilbert and Carson really exemplifies the problems here. And you can see it's all to do with the sectors that we've been talking about over the last couple of months. The energy sector. We first noticed oil services going ballistic back last November and guess what? It's been the best performer this year. Energy now playing catch-up as well and the material sector and gold also doing something very interesting. And this actually marks a very big pivot shift as well into hard commodities in general because we're actually seeing dedollarization continue to occur even after silver and gold's crash the other day. We've also got staples that have run recently. Utilities have started to pick up and of course the industrial sector is going through as well. And you might think it's all good because you see articles in the news and the press that generally tell us how strong the economy is. The GDP is growing at a massive amount. All these fantastic things. But let's be real. One of the things about that GDP is it's driven by one thing, AI spend. And we know that all of the big tech businesses have basically flushed their money. And we'll see that in a moment because they're going to the market and Google just offered 100-year bonds for the first time in ages. This is all a big deal. It's all having a dramatic macro impact. But it's important to note that macro doesn't instantly hit markets. It generally takes longer period of time. So what we must do is we must look for the flows.
Let's have a look here at this chart from the market stats over on X. And you can see here some interesting reads about the high low index. Basically, this is again just showing that we have certain stocks running and others of course going poorly. And in fact, we've actually seen here a market that is just really two tales because as you can see on this chart, the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs is about 20% and the percentage stocks at 52-week lows is 6% and starting to climb. Both are rising at the same time. How weird is that? The first time we've seen it in quite a big period. And in fact, I'll just go back to this chart and I'll show you during periods like this, often this can lead into these kind of periods of time where we get this volatility and weakness. So, it's an early indication that money is potentially floating into more defensive or hard assets. Not a new story here on the channel. So, again, if you're new here, make sure to sub and hit that bell. We do this every day. We love it. You guys are the best and you know it in the comment section down below. So, thank you so much. And you have some great discussions down there, by the way. I've been reading a lot recently. Consumer staples. You can see here again a defensive market. Now we first picked up on this a few weeks ago, maybe 3-4 weeks ago and we started to see staples running at the same time as that happened. We have seen of course markets turn even more negative for tech but they have hit a cross correlation. So basically we're starting now to see percentage of stocks with RSI above 70 now 50%. And again as you can see here the market stats has some interesting reads and it's all kind of coinciding with each other. People are turning super negative on tech, super positive on defensive. And don't get me wrong, that's still the way the flows look. But it's, you know, not really the beginning of the party, is it? It's kind of now everyone's figuring this out. You have to be a little bit early in this game. Look at this. Top stocks in the world, all down for 2026. Every one of those mags is actually in decline. And yeah, that's no news, but at the same time, it just shows you it's a rotation market. And do remember this year, you want to be looking at credit card defaulting. And of course, whether there's more stress, particularly on mortgages, that's going to be something we watch.
Now, at the start of today's video, we talked about the number 100. Well, you can see here Seth Golden over on X actually shared a pretty cool chart which goes through the idea that during midterm elections, so the day of the midterm elections, if you'd actually bought the market at that point, you can see here the seven months moving forward from that are always positive. That's an interesting read. Maybe one to have in the back of your pocket here. And I'm not saying it's going to happen. We don't know that. We've got a few data stats here though going all the way back to obviously Franklin D. Roosevelt and oh, that was 30%. Damn, that's pretty good. I like those gains. What about you guys? But uh, you can see here again pretty positive stats, really interesting read, and I thought I want to bring that to you because again, you don't often see these 100% reads. Now that's of the day. So it's a little while away but I wanted to share it with you. Nautilus also put out an interesting report here which is based on I believe their own bull bear spread levels and you can see here that we're seeing a cross. Now these crosses are often pretty symbolic of certain areas in the market. You can kind of see here little cross, little bit of weakness, little cross, I guess you would say, just a sideways market for a period of time, and then a cross of course for the dip into the buy. And you often see it at kind of peaking periods in the market where it just kind of goes into consolidation or even of course during the dip purchasing. But it is happening again which kind of proves further that we are in consolidation until proven otherwise. And that means that the S&P is stuck between a good support or a demand level and a good resistance or supply level. Again, no news to you guys, but we are still seeing it. This information is now starting to go everywhere and be disseminated, which means that everyone's becoming aware of it, which means probably something big's going to happen soon.
Dollar's roll. Now, I thought this was a little disturbing. This has actually been in decline for a while since probably around 2020, but geez, the dollar is starting to weaken big time, and this is a concern for, I guess, the current world order. If you've ever looked up SWIFT versus BRICS, no real um news to any of us because of course we've been talking about gold for a long time, for multiple years now. Silver of course well over the last two months, 12 months as you guys say in the comment section sometimes. Gold, gold, gold, silver, silver, silver. Yeah, that was one of our mottos. Of course, the easiness is being uh made there, I guess. But take a look at this US dollar role in global reserves. Wow. It is falling off a cliff, guys. And it's something that we have to keep paying attention to because as you can see here, gold is the new king or queen or whatever you want to call it. This thing is absolutely skyrocketing. And it always takes me back to that idea of with gold, if you went back to any period in time. I'm going back to Egypt, guys. I'm going to go visit the pharaohs. Maybe I could become a pharaoh. You know what I mean? Like I had the gold, guys. You get the gold and you'd still be rich pretty much at any point in time, which is pretty sweet. And that's why they called it, you know, the hedge, the ultimate hedge. But at the same time, you know, I think that dollar dollarization concept, we have to continue to keep that in the back of our mind. That is a trend and the trend of course for now anyway is in decline.
Let's now have a look at Apple on capex. I love this one. This is from Stay Sassy. Stay Sassy. Think different. Oh, I saw this and I'm a bit of a fan of uh Apple. Obviously, the old products made me happier uh than the new ones, but take a look here. Apple is spending nothing. Look at them. They're just chilling down the bottom. They don't know what to do about AI. Whereas Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the capex spend is massive. And I thought, and he said, "Think different." I just thought that was way too funny, so I had to share it with you. But again, it lines up with all our capex spend charts that we've seen before. Now, could we be seeing a short squeeze coming? This is becoming the narrative. Uh, this one here is from Subu Trade. Basically, we've got a huge amount of short interest in tech stocks. I would like to note though, we do also have a large amount of buy interest in tech stocks driven by those retail dip buyers. So, generally there's some form of trap that sets this type of thing. We'll keep watching, but short interest is quite high right now and it suggests that a lot of people of course are going negative on tech and that's become kind of the the most popular trade. We'll look at some codes in a minute to kind of figure out where we're at.
What about CPI electricity? Wow, 137% up since January 2000. But I think the most important point here from uh Katusa Research is over on X again is that we now see AI data centers coming in and obviously we're starting to accelerate again in terms of electricity cost. This could be big for the middle class of course and lower class because it's just expensive, isn't it? This is ridiculous. This AI stuff is going to eat energy as we know it. It took 5.5 years to add 40% and 20 years to add 68%. So, look, based on what we're seeing with utilities and energy stocks coming through, there could be some big costs, I think, to many people in terms of what we're going to see in the bills. Let me know down below. We got a lot of US guys out there. Are you seeing your bills going up every month? Are they starting to crank it? I'd be very interested to know. Is it going down? Let me know, guys, in the chat. Obviously, I'm Australian, so I don't see yours. I can tell you we're probably plateauing at this point.
Let's have a look at this one as well. It's a big sell here. This is from Ted Pillows. Obviously, it's insider trading and you can kind of see here the insiders are selling. So, this Cresco Investments just sold, sold, sold, sold, sold across the board. Huge value and that's another week of huge sells. So, it's something we need to pay attention to. Do remember as well, one of the other things is that free cash flow is now dwindling throughout most stocks. We're just not seeing the same level of uh cash on hand as we used to. And this is starting to put pressure on what was considered kind of the golden best bond, which was of course tech. And you can see here tech has been so good and now it's starting to accelerate against high-grade US bonds, which basically means the market starting to reprice the debt and saying, you know what, there's a little bit of a concern there and what that's doing is it's putting a lot of people into puts. So basically there seems to be a huge demand for hedging right now. People are freaking out. Often times when people freak out and it doesn't waterfall itself, it can be a base bottom. So I think it's an important point to note that generally when we get to these levels in puts uh that they often do get bought up or at least held. So everything's going to come back to the price action. Speaking of which, let's jump into the charts and look at everything we need to know.
First up, what are we in a range-bound market? What's the general trend? Obviously higher time frames is up. We like top-down approach and the advanced decline is of course skyrocketing up. So, this basically just shows us underneath the hood is really good. Magnificent 7 is really bad at this point. You can also see here on the futures, I don't have the updated options level. So, I wanted to get this video out a little bit quicker for you today, but we'll get that in the next one. And again, we're just range-bound between that 67 kind of 70 zone on the put zone, which is right around the weekly 20 as you guys know, mean reversion, good level. You can often see it uh interact well with the S&P. And of course 7,000 is the core wall. We know those two levels.
Let's now look at why this is happening. So consumer discretionary versus staples. Staples are skyrocketing. Consumer discretionary is dropping like a rock and it just, I mean, it is absolutely falling off a cliff. Now, we have started to see the first level that I would usually expect some potential demand. You can see volume spiking at the same time. So there's a little bit of activity coming in here. This will be one we watch over the next I think week to see what happens. But we're starting to get down. And I think the easy short kind of concept here has probably happened. And we are still seeing bonds go up. So you can see here LQD, this is corporate bonds, high-grade corporate bonds. They're not weakening. So again, that is a strong sign uh that the markets are still liking themselves even though yields are dropping off. And what seems to be happening is we're getting a repricing of where and how many cuts we're going to get in the future. So it started with two this year. I think it could be going to three or even four. in terms of what the market's starting to predict. Now, that's not there yet, but watch this space because the yields across the board are falling off a cliff and that can often mean a a problem on the horizon uh for the underlying economy, especially when we see financials also coming under pressure. Take a look here at XLF and then we'll look at the probably most well-known financial, JP Morgan. And you guys can see everything's on support. So, we start dropping these levels, all of a sudden we're changing trend towards the downside. Things could get serious fast. So, we've got a lot of cross-correlation towards, I guess you would say, a broadening pattern, but some of the old leads kind of showing us weakness, which suggests we're in a defensive late market, and that's something we've been arguing for quite a while now. RSP versus SPY, this is just equal weight, just shows again broadening. Look at it accelerate, value, etc. is all going up. Um, if we have a look here at value funds, look at them go. Again, no news to any of you guys, but this really started, I think, to accelerate around the rate cut. Now, it was already doing well, but look at it now. And value is absolutely doing big numbers at this stage.
Nvidia, meanwhile, is not able to break through 195, nor is it weak though through 171. We're watching semiconductors closely this year. And the US dollar is stuck. Yes. Okay. We have this dedollarization. Yes. Okay. It's losing world dominance in many ways, but at the same time, it's stuck. It hasn't broken the major trend line, nor has it found buyers just yet. So, that one, I'd say, is kind of holding. And because it's holding, gold is also just kind of sitting around, not doing much. They're actually not that interesting charts. And silver, you know, we're looking at around this level here to whether we find more bid. I mean, my preference right now would be something like this happens. And if that happens, I think, you know, it's a good sign that we could be going towards 90. But at this stage, you know, I'd say this is neutral to maybe even slightly bullish after the collapse of silver the other day. Um, but you guys have seen the the overall stats of what happens to silver when it falls as much as it has. Tesla tapped, of course, that big trade zones pulled back a little bit. No real updates on Tesla at this stage, guys. It's stuck between those options walls. We'll update that in the next video. And software tech has everyone talking about it and it has dropped off a cliff like a freight train. So, at the same time, volume is spiking up. Someone's probably excited. Someone thinks it's they're scared and they're getting dumped. I would look for structure. We do not have that yet, but we'll update because this could be an interesting point for it.
Magnificent 7. Now, this is a big one. If we actually treat this like, let's say, some type of range market that is selling off. That is the worst. What is What have I done there? Stupid magnetic thing. So, anyway, there's the the worst line you've ever seen in your life, guys. But if we pull this down like this is what's possible if the mags actually weaken off previous resistance, you know, miniature demand, but there's kind of a completion of this type of concept. I think we need to consider that that is possible. The Magnificent 7 is not very strong but it ultimately comes back to whether the Qs drop their zones. So do remember 600 is a pretty strong put zone and again if we drop that then it could be down to 560 and I think this is the bare case scenario at the moment and obviously the bulls are just like hold this loan at all costs if possible. So, we want to be watching the structure of the next couple of days on these markets. XLU's absolutely flying. You guys can see here it it really has been uh pretty much anything to do with with um defensive that's been going well. A lot of us over at fxevolution.com, you know, in our private community, you can join that. The Market Masters Club if you're interested. We've got some amazing people in there. You guys have been finding some amazing stuff recently. We even saw like telecommunications go a few weeks ago, like a week and a half, two weeks ago, which is just these are very defensive style stocks. So, it's something that we have to keep watching. And as you guys know that that the key here is of course wait until the market shows. That's why we say patience, react, don't predict. The key is the flow. Uh speaking of which NASDAQ, it's finding base for now. Again, if it drops these levels, you guys can see 24,000 is the key on the NASDAQ. I prefer this chart than the Qs in terms of the overall level, but we do know 600 and 580 for the Qs is pretty strong.
And we'll have a look at Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin is starting to show what I would consider uh a pretty solid uh potential base. Now, we do have amazing support over here. We do have, of course, a very interesting level over here as well uh that started to form. And I'm wondering whether there's one last kind of like bang bang like this. That is certainly very possible. I don't mind the zone. What do you guys think in the comments down below, though? We're starting to see some structure. Obviously, we go over to other pairs such as Ethereum. Okay, Ethereum went down to 1770. There's not really any uh any news, though. There's not I wouldn't say it's like wow kind of structure just yet, but we are watching. And this is that kind of point where you would say, okay, across a lot of cryptos, we're starting to see that correlation.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe, smash that bell icon. As always, we give a bit of summary at the end of these videos, which makes it good to stay to the end if you can. And I think the summary for today is there's no doubt that bonds are starting to show some weakness in tech. We know this. That is going to be something you have to watch. That's a macro story, though, so that will take some time to really freak a market out. We're on critical support for several tech businesses, although the Magnificent 7 has actually still continued to weaken. So there's no real sign that tech is a buy or anything from the charts perspective anyway and I think that's always important. We do like to see that in the charts and for now it does seem like the defensive market sectors are moving, though staples particularly has hit what I would call like a resistance across the board. Some other things to note is that we are getting the tale of two stories. GDP versus the the rates coming down and one of them is unemployment is rising. There's no doubt about that. We're seeing these revisions looking ridiculous. And at the same time, we've got this strong economy driven by pretty much the big tech stocks spending all their money uh into AI. So, if AI doesn't work, we better watch out, guys. Thank you so much. Always appreciate you. Sub, hit the bell. We'll see you in the next one. Bye for now.