Transcription
The markets in the US seem not to be worried about what is happening on the geopolitical front too much, just yet. The S&P 500 is down a mere four, five, 6% right now. Gold is holding in there around $4,600, but uh the US economy in particular seems to be struggling. Growth seems to be an issue. We've seen US GDP numbers for Q4 revised massively downward to only 7%. Inflation is ticking higher. Unemployment is somewhat steady at as of right now, but the cracks are showing. We're seeing layoffs left, right, and center, and they're not being reflected in the data yet.
So, I've invited a fantastic guest to give us an holistic overview of the US macroeconomic picture. His name is David Haye. He's the author and publisher over at the Haymaker Publica over at Hay Maker Publications. And really looking forward to catching up with him. It's been a while since he's been on the program and we'll really stay focused on those topics today. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we really really appreciate it.
Now David, it's great to have you back on the program. Thanks so much for joining us here on Sore Financially again.
>> Hi Kai. That's got a nice ring to it. Hi Kai.
>> Right. Yeah, that works. That works. Absolutely. No, David. Hey Dave, say hey. You know, so I'm sure you get that all the time, but I can relate.
>> Hey Dave. Yeah. No, people play. It's a nice play on words. And it used to drive me nuts when I was a kid cuz Kai and nine sound very familiar and my mom was let yelling nine a lot and I kept running towards her. Uh very irritating. So um no David really.
>> Yeah. Know it's like I have two younger brothers and there was a lot of nines in our household. So um um absolutely though David really appreciate you being here. Um of course very light-hearted conversation but we need to talk markets. We need to talk economy and since you haven't been on in a while really David I just wanted to get a good overview maybe your initial assessment what's the state of the US economy right now?
>> Confused you know there's been really for since co it's been a tremendously crosscurrent riddle economy and as you know there were a lot of forecasts for recession back in 2022 23 for a while I thought we were going to get one although I said I thought we'd have an industrial recession a profits recession more likely than a real recession, which did turn out to be the case. I wasn't comfortable being the majority back then, but I I flipped when we had that tremendous liquidity infusion that happened after the three big banks failed the United States in early 2023. So, it's u you know, it continues to be very hard to determine where the trend is, but I mean, we're getting hit with a lot of problems in the US economy right now. So, you pointed out very correctly the how weak the GDP was in the fourth quarter, excuse me. And so that's, you know, that's official reflection what's going on. I can see the government shutdown was in there, but the estimates for Q one are coming down pretty sharply. And really, we haven't seen all the negative impacts yet of the tremendous oil price energy price increase that's occurred, which really is it's pretty amazing. I remember other energy convulsions. You know, I'm old enough to remember the early 70s and then of course the late 70s when we had the first Iran uh confrontation and the market got clobbered those times and actually a lot of people believe that one of the catalysts for the 2008 2009 great recession and where the market got cut in half basically was the fact that oil went to 140 back then which inflation adjusted close to 200 and so we've and even in 2022 the the market got hit very hard as you know and there were multiple factors including that tightening but certainly what was happening with commodity prices and particularly oil went up to about 120 you know back then so it's it's pretty amazing when you do view this as the worst energy crisis to ever happen in terms of the loss of supply got people less worried about it is frankly the liberation day experience of roughly a year ago uh when things turned on a dime time it had been the market had been very weak a lot of anxiety and then you know Trump reversed course he did his first taco as they like to call it and the u the market you know went straight up but I think this one's very different because as my good friend Robert Mullen likes to point out it takes two to taco so it's not just up to Trump it's up to Iran too and it's as my other good friend Louis God points out it's there's really no unified Iran you got 31 different prefixures provinces whatever military cells where these each one has its own commander and so it's going to be really really tough to get you know a quick resolution of this thing in my view and the view of some people I really respect.
So I guess my point is guy that we're not I doubt it we're going to see this energy crisis go away quickly and since the US economies I mean we've got a private credit problem right which seems to be metastatizing we've got the you talked about the labor market and you know Friday jobs number had you know kind of the mega supporter jumping up and down look a great number but you know lots of puts and takes in there lots of uh you know footnotes I don't think it was really that good a jobs number actually there were revisions downward to the prior two months and That's really been the story and we've been harping on that for a couple of years and it's been true for a couple of years. You get these superficially or initially robust numbers and then they get revised downward with the fullness of time. So last year it was something like a million jobs were wiped away during the revisions. So I I'm just actually looking at a chart right now that shows US payrolls the trend uh over the last few years and it's really ugly. It's a very very weak trend. So I think there is I mean even before the energy shock which obviously hasn't fully impacted the economy there were signs of fragility and I think that fragility is going to get more acute.
>> Absolutely. The data is starting to point more and more towards it. But David David maybe just to summarize like how close are we to a recession um in in the US right now? Growth is stagnant. Inflation is rising. Um the term stagflation it's not being used yet but the the description of it is being used widely.
>> Oh I've seen a number of people you know saying we're going stag is in stagflation. I think that's becoming much more widely accepted but again I think the view is this is going to be temporary. I mean clearly the markets are looking through this and they're expecting a liberation day quick reversal. Well it's already been going on for weeks. what is this week five something like that where his liberation day was I think a week from when he made the announcement to when he talked so it's this is a different scenario and as I said it's not just up to him it's you know Iran plays a role in this thing uh so it's yeah I I think that the you alluded to this earlier I think you're right that the US financial markets which obviously do correlate with the economy now some people think the financial markets drive the economy rather than vice versa and you know maybe that's true But it's some one of the things I think is that's got to happen here fairly soon, which was where the two meet is with earning provisions. Because if you look at earnings estimates for this year, they're very strong. I think the last I saw up 17%. I scratched my head and go, how can that happen? With all the pressure that's going on and uh you know, profit margin pressure from higher energy costs and uh consumers pushing back over price increases. They're pretty fed up with the cost of living as it is. And so I think those earnings estimates are kind of la. I think is what the analysts do. You know, they're very famous for just extrapolating what'sever whatever has been going on recently. And frankly, because of AI, I mean, I don't I think that's where you've gotten most of your earnings estimate increases and earnings actual earnings results over the last year, year and a half. Now, you can say, well, energy companies are starting to kick in, but they're such a small part of the S&P. But with these tech companies, I think there's a lot of overstatement of earnings going on because if you think about it, these guys are, you know, putting all this money into chips and AI data centers and and servers that have relatively short lives, particularly the the chips and the data center centers, I'm sorry, the chips and the servers and the depreciation schedules on those are relatively stretched out whereas they probably need to be contracted like the three years. So you really haven't had the hit to the the P&L to these big technology companies, hyperscalers that are spending all this money yet. The suppliers, say Nvidia, are reporting those revenues that they're getting from the hyperscalers immediately. So you create this kind of front-loaded impact, positive impact on earnings, and there's going to be a payback to that.
>> So it's Yeah, I just think that we're we're kind of in denial about how serious the situation is.
>> Yeah, Broadcom just signed deals with Anthropic and Google today as well. And the stock is just rallying, really propping up the market here, just building on that AI excitement, right? Is that really the only pillar that's holding up the market right now though, the AI space?
>> I wouldn't say the only one, but I mean, a lot of the hope on the market continuing to rally earlier in the year was the Fed was going to be continuing to cut rates, and that's clearly a risk. I mean, there's even some concern that they might have to hike rates. I mean, it does seem to me that we are in a decade as you use the sword stagflation a lot like the 1970s where I remember that and it was it was not a fun time and you had a situation a lot of very eerie parallels, you know, gold was going up sharply because Nixon had taken uh the US off what was left of the gold standard and you had him very inter much interfering with the Fed trying to keep interest rates too low in a strong economy uh and you had a war in the Middle East the first Middle East war energy crisis that happened and uh, you know, inflation which really had been until a few years ago quiescent for you know, 40 years all of a sudden inflation is was a problem it's becoming a problem again and that was a definitely a situation with the 1970s the Fed back then thought well it's a temporary situation so we'll we'll stay easy and then of course inflation just kept going and then they were forced to tighten and tighten and tighten and then you know they eased prematurely and then it took off again. And I think that's kind of the situation we're in. But a big difference, as you know, Kai, is back then the federal debt to GDP by the end of the 70s was only 30%. We're there today, but you put a one in front of that 30% 130% debt to GDP, which makes it really tough for the Fed to tighten as much as they need to when there is an inflationary surge. So then they're kind of behind the curve even more than say uh Arthur Burns was back in the famously back in the 1970s. And one reason that Vulkar could crush inflation, you know, starting in the late 70s, early 80s is because the federal debt to GDP was so low. So he could take the prime rate to 20%. I I think there's very little room to get interest rates much higher without creating a lot of pain. And I would say really watch the bond market. I mean, if you wanted a great macroeconomic lead indicator, I think that's the bond market. And if you look around the world, most bond markets are breaking out in your yield. So, high highest yields in years in most of these major bond markets. Now, so far, the US has been holding a little bit below the 2022 2023 peaks on both the 10ear and the 30-year, but should those get taken out, and I think there's a good chance they will, you know, we could see interest rates spike. Apparently, the Treasury had to intervene, actually step up and buy treasuries last week. Uh, you probably saw that, too. And I think the problem is we've got so many of these international investors that are basically saying, "No, Moss, we don't want more US treasuries. In fact, we want to sell our US treasuries because we need the money. We need to buy food. We need to buy energy." And I think they're they're going to be sellers of treasuries and there going to be sellers of the mag seven stocks. And we look at these mid eastern countries which have been such heavy investors in US debt and particularly equities and I think they're going to be sellers. About the only source of real aggressive buying of treasuries is out of Cayman Islands and some with the UK where they're both hedge fund uh, you know, that's a hedge fund heavy area two areas and they're uh, they're buying short. So you can you can finance on the short end, but it's there not many buyers on the long end. I mean, who wants to really buy, you know, a 10-year US Treasury at 4.3 or 4.4%. 4% when you have such so many inflation or endocurrens.
>> Okay. That's the way.
>> Yeah. No, a lot a lot of liquidity of course has come out of the gold space as well. A lot of selling into uh on the gold side just to raise that liquidity that you hinted at here to to cover other costs, other needs like energy like essential needs, right? Um, but David, I wanted to just stay on the US economy and the financial markets real quick because we got the Q1 earnings seasons coming up or season coming up here. Um, are we in for a rude awakening here uh from the Q1 numbers? Seems like the expectations are very lofty and or strong depending on the angle you want to take here, but uh are we in for a rude awakening? Maybe guidance uh to be much lower than perhaps expected waking up the markets.
>> Well, I think what you just said, the guidance is the key word I say. I think probably Q1 will be mixed with some, you know, pretty upsetting disappointments and then some, you know, like we're talking about Broadcom, some really positive numbers from especially those people that are the beneficiaries of the AI mania, shouldn't say mania, but the AI phenomenal buildout that's going on. Uh, I mean, I think the question is, are they overinvesting in that space? I think the answer is probably yes. But I think where you're more likely to have trouble is in Q2 and that's where your term the guidance comes in is to be more of an issue.
>> Well, the question is like the SM S&P 500 is at 6,600 points right now as we speak, David. Um, what what is priced in like where where should where should it be trading at at this point?
>> Well, it's certainly not pricing in a recession because you know in a real recession the market falls at least 20%, you know, more typically 30%. And if you look at some of the kind of the leaders of you know when the market's troughing the VIX would be a lot higher than it is currently. I think the one that is the most reliable frankly though you big spikes of the VIX is is helpful for sure but BA runs their fund manager survey and they include cash holdings and when cash holdings are very low you want to be cautious and they were very low early in the year. They were down to 3% they're now about 4%. It's been a very significant jump. But in times of set real stress, they get up to five to 6%. And a 1% move in that is a big deal. So going from three to four shows that people have derisked fairly quickly and meaningfully, but they're still a long way from being in the, you know, what I would call the fetal position. Just looking at the CNN fear and greed index has actually come up in recent days. Um, it used to be down at 10. Now we're at 22. We're still in the extreme fear range, but uh people seem to be more confident again.
>> Yeah, I don't look at that one very much because that, you know, it is a sentiment survey. I I think what matters more is look what people are actually doing, especially institutional investors. And that's where I think looking at the FMS, the fund manager survey. Michael Hartnett publishes that on a regular basis and it's a I think it's a much more accurate tool. Okay.
>> Um, just just on that topic maybe coming coming back you you used the 1970s as a bit of a reference point like what what can we learn from the 70s like if you look at the market behavior were there any lags that we can sort of like attri or not not attribute but use that as an opportunity to say hey maybe in the 70s we've seen a six-month lag between oil price spike and the markets crashing and I'm just making this up now um I don't have any reference points but I'm curious what what can we take from the 70s to today and maybe use it into our advantage as as traders and investors.
>> Well, it's a good point and of course when the oil crisis really got ugly was 7374 and that's when we started to enter the bare market. Another parallel is the Nifty50. I mean those stocks were very expensive. They were considered to be one decision stocks and they Polaroid was 100 times earnings and some of those many of those companies actually went bankrupt. It was a terrible time to be buying those companies but that's where the money was flowing. So kind of similar to the type of concentration that we've seen lately. So that's another thing to be on guard about. But uh the other the flip side is the rest of the market a little bit like today but much worse was in a bare market. The bare market basically started in 1966 and there were some rallies, big sell-offs, rallies, big sell-offs. But the stock market was already viewed kind of suspiciously outside of the nifty50 by the early 70s. And I remember that period. I mean people did not you brag about their stock portfolios. There was a lot of apprehension about stocks. money was starting to go more into hard assets. And you know that's really if you were preient back in the early 70s and you said okay we are in an inflationary period and once the energy crisis hit this is just going to turbocharge that I'm going to be very heavy in energy stocks and gold stocks and other natural resource stocks you did very well in that and you would have exited bonds which of course had a horrible decade from 19 say 72 to 1982. So it was a really good time to be positioned kind of like the way we've been positioned for the last few years and we'll look at some of the returns that we've generated here I think coming up for our newsletter readers but they've been uh very very strong and it's because we have largely been focused on these hard asset companies and particularly when the share prices or the commodities have been breaking out to the upside. We're huge as I think you know on on tracking breakouts and we look at two to threeyear r trading ranges prefer longer longer is better than shorter two is kind of a minimum but it works pretty well and as we were talking about before we started recording gold and silver great examples where they just were kind of going nowhere for so long basically a lost decade and then boom they started to break out and just off to the races and of course that pulled the miners with them as well. So, I think there's a lot of parallels with the 1970s. I mean, I know Ed Yardini would disagree. He's been talking about the roaring 20s or this 20s, you know, not making a kind of a historical play on the 1920s. Of course, what happened after the 1920s wasn't too good. But I think what's going to be roaring, and I've been saying this for a few years, what's going to be roaring this decade is more like inflation rather than uh the overall equity market. So, I think you can make money in equities, but I think you got to be in the right equities. And I think most people are in the wrong equities.
>> Well, let's talk about those opportunities, David, because of course, we want to tell our listeners, we don't just want to be doom and gloom here, but we want to give them a bit of a a rosy outlook as well. And there's always opportunity, even in a in a bad market, there's always opportunity to make money.
>> Especially in a bad market. I mean, Warren Buffett famously said back in the 1970s, that period we were talking about, that he felt like a oversex guy in a bordello. I don't know if you ever heard that quote, but he really did say that. And uh so, yeah, you get these difficult periods, it creates opportunity. I think right now where there already is opportunities overseas, these overseas markets had been lagging for a long time. But again, going back to our basics of looking for breakouts, you know, most of these stock markets uh have broken out of their multi-year trading ranges and have really taken off. And some of them I think look stretched and some of like let's say Japan to Korea vulnerable to the energy shortage. Others like Brazil probably beneficiaries of the situation we're in since they're a heavy commodity producer. So you got to be selective. Mexico. We got a we have time. We have a chart coming up on the uh actually the Brazilian stock market which stock exchange. So just like the you know NASDAQ you know has its own company and uh there's a lot of opportunities overseas and I think it frankly in China which I've been lry of for a long time fortunately I think that market is also breaking out. No question it is. So a lot of what we try to do as a predict is is to observe look for these breakouts and then look at valuations and look at earnings momentum. If they all kind of if you check all those boxes you probably have a winner. So, I agree. I want to really emphasize there's lots of opportunities out there. I just don't think there because people have such a recency bias. They go with what's been working and I don't think that's what you want to do right now.
>> No, exactly. I think the the game is changing rather quickly right in front of our eyes on a daily basis. Um, David, you you brought us some chart or some slides as well. I'm want to put them up here and we we can go through them together. Um,
>> Quickly the return number so people Why do I listen to this? Yahoo. So, our average return in 25 was 55%. That's better than it looks because it's obviously not been a full year for a lot of these picks. Our trading alerts, we do trading alerts, you know, I don't know, six or seven times a year, maybe 10 times, and those have been even better. But we, let's just see this, they go to 24. And this is the office. So, 68%, but it's a lower, you know, if you were to do an annualized return, it would be lower. Still very high number. And you can see there's just been a lot of a lot of names. I mean, we it's almost every week we have a name that we highlight as a buy and many times it's because the particular company questions breaking out but if we want to look at uh some individual names that look interesting for your people that that want to try to make money in this environment this was probably one you guys have talked about before. So this is the world's largest platinum producer. Platinum was another one that we really got right last year and we've done well with uh with Valera. We didn't get it right at the bottom, but we got it kind of this breakout point that you can see back there in the fall of 2025. So, not very long ago. And you see it had a huge move and now it's corrected. If we go to the next one, we'll see the valuation looks pretty attractive, especially on a PE basis. So, as platinum has gone nuts, the the earnings estimates for Alterero have gone way up. So, the PE at this point is only about 8.6. I will say on price of sales it looks kind of neutral neutral to a little high but you know we think we're in a period it's been a very depressed period for platinum for a long time and platinum prices look like they're going to be in a higher trading range for quite a while.
>> Platinum one of your favorite picks let's just stay on the commodity for a second um because we haven't talked gold silver platinum like the precious metals just curious uh where do you put platinum right now it's the opportunity for the commodity itself Uh it's okay. I mean it's still way below gold and you remember for most of the since 1971 it's platinum has traded higher than gold. So this has been a very aberant period but I think silver is the most interesting right now. I don't have a silver chart. I don't have a silver stock here and the silver equities are a little bit more challenging. We liked u first majestic that's had a big run. It might be a pretty good buy here but I think silver is I mean for one thing it's used a lot of military applications. So there's going to be a lot of replacement of the silver that's been consumed. There's a silver shortage already. Uh and also if you look at the open interest on silver, it's just collapsed back in January was like it was the the new meme stock and now it's nobody really wants to touch it. So I I think silver's in fact we wrote it up as a trading buy at about 68 69 here recently. It had really good move at first. Now it's kind of pulled back. I think it's going to go again. So I like silver and I think reasonable to look at.
>> Absolutely. No, it's a one of those silver leverage names. Probably one of the go-to names of the retail investor in in the silver space.
>> Well, along with Pan-American, the Pan-American would be the I'm sure the the class act of of that group. But, okay, let's go to we've got another uh interesting actually about six of those. So, this is not a hard asset play, but this is what I was alluding to earlier. This is the Brazilian stock exchange, the company that owns and runs it. And that's a very lucrative area. These exchanges have been phenomenal performers, whatever country they're in for, you know, a long, long time. But here you can see a breakout going on. So this is going back to 2021. So it really is a multi-year breakout. Kind of a series of breakouts. That's why we got three different horizontal lines. But then if we look at the valuation, I think it's nine times earnings, 10 times earnings, which for an exchange is really cheap. 9.3 times earnings. I think that's very attractive. And most of these I own personally. I'll mention ones that I haven't bought yet coming up here, but I do own this and Vera. Okay, next one.
>> Uh this is I don't own yet. This is basically Chinese offshore, China offshore oil and it's also breaking out and it you know kind of no surprise with what's going on energy-wise but obviously China's going to be very intent on developing uh their internal oil reserves and a lot of those do lie offshore in China. We look at the valuation high on price to sales next one here. So there is the white line price to sales that's high. So that's a negative I would say that for sure. But if you look at PE very very depressed despite the fact that as you know until recently oil prices haven't been good and this so this this PE has been during a period of low oil prices that's likely to change. So I would say that's that the valuation picture is a little bit mixed there but let's go to the next one.
>> Uh this is actually Harbor Energy which is a European energy company. I don't know if you know of it but it hasn't quite broken out. Sure looks like it's going to. And this is one where the uh you know basically being based in Europe they fought a lot of ESG headwinds but now the European powers that be are finally waking up and like hey we better have our own domestic energy sources. So as they start to ease regulations reduce taxes this company could have a really nice tailwind. If we look at it even today the PE is very modest and price to sales opposite of uh the Chinese uh offshore kind of offshore oil this price to sales is very low and the PE is very low as well. Uh, this is a favorite name of my good friend Robert Mullen. Have you ever had Robert Mullen on?
>> I haven't. No.
>> Probably should. He's He runs Marathon Resources, which is, as it sounds, naturally resource focused. He goes long and short. He's had his compound return since he started the fund in 2020 is 39% per year. He's had just phenomenal numbers, and this is one of his favorite ideas. So, I I think your folks should check this one out. And of course, they should do their own research. I You probably say that.
>> We can give you ideas. We I I do own this one personally, but I'm wrong a lot. So, take that with a big shaker of salt. Okay, let's go to our We're coming down to the tail end here. We don't have too many nutrient. Now, this has this come up on your show before?
>> No, it hasn't. But, uh interesting like on the from the X space. So,
>> It's largest fertilizer producer in North America based in Saskatchewan, Saskatoon. It's breaking out has broken out. Uh obviously, fertilizer is going to be in really short supply here. This is where I think the market is way too optimistic about how soon things would be resolved because you can see back in 22 during the Russian Ukraine situation which was much less of a traumatic event. The stock went a lot higher. I think they made $14 a share back then. Huge earning surge and yet earnings estimates really haven't come up very much. But if we look at the valuation looks pretty undemanding. Uh so it's on a price to sales basis it's only 1.4 times roughly. It's up from where it was when fertilizer was really out of favor at 23 24 25 but it's been a lot higher. PE is only 15. So I'm giving you a lot of ideas where the the valuations are reasonably on this one. It's one of my favorite ones right now. Next one.
>> Dave David, can I jump in real quick? Um, just just when it comes to PE ratios, we often talk about it also for the mining companies. Like what what's a good PE ratio? Just give our audience a bit of a guidance. Like you said 15 is low. Um, like I know Nvidia's they're trading at I don't even know the exact number like high30s 40s something like that. Ridiculous amount. So, or even higher 200s I think I've heard. So, I'm just curious like what's a what's a healthy PE ratio?
>> Well, first of all in Nvidia because earnings have been so strong the uh PE has come down quite a bit. I think it's in the 20s now. But the price to sales is quite high because their margins are just through the roof. I think where your your risk with the B isn't so much the PE as it is just the E that the earnings are at some point they disappoint but you know with these the trouble with the mining stocks is they're cyclical and a lot of times you want to be selling them when their pees are very low so you kind of have to have a sense of where you are in the cycle I would say in the case of the fertilizers uh because the cycle is so early and turning up uh you probably can be you know look at 15 as a more as a low ball number price to sales is is a a more reliable metric for cyclical companies. So, we like to see lower price to sales. But sometimes you okay with things have changed. there's really a, you know, a structural improvement in the industry or there's going to be a shortage. And and I just think you probably would agree with this, I think, Kai, that with commodities in general, there's just been such an underinvestment for so long that I mean, we don't have uranium in here, but I just think uranium is just phenomenally undervalued given the just all these new reactors that are starting, all the reactors are being given extensions, and there's just not going to be enough uranium. We're going to have an acute uranium shortage, but again, I don't have that in here. But I just think that's that's your number one driver for this commodity super cycle, which I think it is, is you've just not had the money invested and the demand keeps going up and up and up. So I think pees are too low. I think the earnings estimates are too low. So but again, I think price of sales is one of your best metrics for cyclical companies.
>> Okay, we got another couple to look at. Oh, this last one, yon coal. So this is an Australian coal producer. Do you know this name?
>> I do not. No, I'm not too familiar with the energy name. So, I really appreciate you running us through those.
>> So, Yan Cole is, you know, big producer in Australia and as you can see, clear breakout here. And I just think coal, which was of course the redheaded stepchild of the energy sector. And, you know, so many investors wouldn't touch it. I even have to admit I was pretty reluctant to buy thermal coal, but it's a brave new world we're dealing with out there. These countries need coal. Germany showed us, you know, back in 2022 23, you know, ultra green Germany that when times get tough and you're worried about keeping the lights on and they burn ligignite and they burn wood. That's been their two big ways they've dealt with the drop off in Russian natural gas along with US LNG. But US LG is basically maxed out. So coal, I think, is going to get another up leg here. And as you can see, the market's agreeing with me. If we look at the next one at valuation, uh again price to sales is at the higher end of where it's been recently but way below where it has been in the past. PE is quite modest at 10 and a half times. So those are some ideas that your folks could check out more thoroughly on their own.
>> Absolutely. No, tremendously appreciate it, David. Um, always good to have some ideas and some concrete ideas following like based on the macro discussion we've just had like there as we said there's always opportunity in this market, right? There always is and uh there's there's lots more to be had. Uh David, like wonderful conversation. Really appreciate you coming on the program. Where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? What's the best way to reach you?
>> Well, for better, for worse, as I often say, we're at Substack. So, hey maker at Substack, it's Heymaker Substack. U maybe we can uh provide you with a link to that to make it easier for your people to find us. But
>> Absolutely.
>> Yes. I think that, you know, our newsletter is uh very reasonably priced, a little over a dollar a day. And, you know, frankly, just one good idea more than pays for it. And we do spend so much time looking for these breakout situations where I mean, just there's not many of them that don't work. Frankly, it taken me so many years, decades to really fully embrace how important these multi-year, you know, Paul Tutter Jones, the famous hedge fund manager, calls them range expansions, and they work both ways. You could really save a lot of money when you see a long-term support level broken and you get out. I mean, just so many of these stocks that have just been crushed you know, like Lululemon for one or um Viceerve and you know, there's been a lot of disasters uh Nova Nord disk uh and when you see these breaks you get out and you can always come back and look at them later and invariably they go down really hard and and sometimes those are your best returns after they break and then just get absolutely annihilated that you can get some great snapbacks. uh Accenture, the great consulting company's another one look kind of intriguing that way but but so far these things are still in downtrends. One thing we look at before the breakout happens is a break of the downtrend. Once they do that, then there's more likelihood that you you're now going to be going from the lower left to the upper right rather than the upper left to lower right, which is where a lot of money is lost.
>> Yeah, absolutely. No, David, really appreciate that. Uh, because I was going to ask you last question, my last question was supposed to be um how do we when do we sell, right? Because buying a breakout is great, but when do we sell it again? Right. But you answered that already.
>> Great. Well, but even beyond that, so I mean, we were all over the gold, you know, gold, silver, and especially the gold miners. I mean, we we tend to look at gold and silver as a little bit more core holdings, but I mean, silver moved so much that we basically said in late January, you can go back and and check me out on this. This is in writing, but we thought it looked like a blowoff top. We've been advocating dollar cost averaging on the sell side as things really started going vertical toward the end of last year. So our whole thing is when you get when you catch a a bubble or a mini mini bubble I think it was more of a mini bubble bubbleette than a you know maxi bubble but you know dollar cost average on the way out take off 20% 30% if they keep going take off another 20 30% and you're never going to get the peak but you get closer that way and then you've got buying power because you know the more it goes like this the sharper the correction is going to be and people were kind of laughing at me in in January and then all of a sudden oh wow these things can really go down rapidly after such a move. So we really try to be disciplined about that and admit that we can't predict the future. Anybody thinks they can predict the future? You just try to get the odds in your favor and and that's you know the dollar cost average and the sell side almost nobody does unfortunately. In fact what we find is most people buy more as things go into the bubble phase and that's why they perform so poorly over time.
>> Absolutely. And you you build liquidity along the way as well which helps.
>> And we are telling people we've been telling people all year have an unusual amount of we don't like the way things are acting right now and I still don't uh unless peace breaks out suddenly the mid east I think this market's got more downside.
>> 100%. And as as we discussed earlier it's completely mispriced and we're not fully priced in yet. So no.
>> So absolutely David thank you so much for coming on. Tremendously appreciate your time. It's always good to see you and we'll have to do this again soon. And to everybody else, thank you so much for watching. So sore financially. Tremendously appreciate you watching the this show to get educated what's happening in the financial markets, what's happening in the economy. You had a great macro discussion here with David. Hey, if you enjoyed this conversation, hit that like and subscribe button and of course let us know down in the comments how we're doing. Did you enjoy this conversation? What else should we be talking about here on this channel? Um geopolitics is of course a big topic that we've been discussing here. So it was quite refreshing to have David on just to talk about macroeconomic the macroeconomic picture today. Um, but uh any any suggestions, put them down below. We tremendously appreciate. We always look forward to hearing from you. And uh don't let your emotions run your investment portfolio for you. Take care out there.