Transcription
It's time to piss some people off. Yes, these are the eight ADPs, the eight spots where players are selected that are the most disgusting right now in your fantasy football drafts. Hayden, one question for you. Did you drink your Haterade this morning?
>> Of course I did. I'm going to go back to where I've done this before and repeat some names from previous seasons, so get ready for that. I was excited. I will say this, felt a little bit more challenging this year to find some like really, really mispriced ones. And even some of the guys that we'll talk about today, it's like I'm 10 spots, 15 spots lower. Like nothing that really jumps out. I think part of that is because we didn't have that many rookies uh coming in here. So like sometimes there was like a rookie. I'm like, "Okay, like there's no chance this guy's going to be able to pay that off." We just had fewer rookies to kind of go in there uh and mix things up. So I think it was a little bit more challenging this year.
>> Wow. Hayden opening with a hedge. Who could have seen that coming? Uh eight names today. I brought four. Hayden brought four. We're going blind in this episode. So I have no idea the picks, the players that he is bringing up. And so hopefully that, you know, causes some disruption, some disagreement here today. And also like we didn't avoid the easy stuff with, you know, Malik Neighbors coming back from this injury in the second round or Rashi Rice and everything that he's going through in jail for 30 days uh in the third round. So mainly we want to talk about like a player who is actually on the field >> uh and just the surrounding ecosystem that they're in that it might be, you know, a disgusting selection at this point. So with all that said, Hayden, why don't you kick us off?
All right, Marvin Harrison Jr. still not going to believe in this one. Uh, I have him down at 80th overall. He's he's kind of in the middle of a round where there's a lot of quarterbacks and some other wide receivers that I kind of just like a little bit more. So, like Alec Pierce would be an example of that. The problem with Marvin Harrison right now is he doesn't get any manufactured touches. He's got a 1% screen target rate over the last couple seasons and then the downfield stuff has not really materialized and then the contested catch stuff has been a work in progress. It's hard to be kind of like average in the other two categories if you're not getting the manufactured touches. And then on top of that, Michael Wilson was like a very real problem last year. And when I went back and watched the Michael Wilson stuff, >> I see a real football player. Like none of that seemed that fluky except for the Cardinals pass game was so outrageous down the stretch with Jacobe Brassette. They were number one in neutral pass rate. I would be absolutely floored if Laflur takes that offense and does anything like it was down the stretch. I think they're going to be way more balanced, especially when they have uh Jeremiah Love inhouse, when they have Al Gir and even James Connor out there. There's a lot of running backs. I'm expecting a lot lot fewer pass attempts in this. Trey McBride's going to get the manufactured stuff. I think he's the best player on this this football team. I think Michael Wilson's just on par with Marvin Harrison as a football player. And then you go into the schedule. They start with the Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs. Is Jacobe Brassette going to be starting when we need him to be? I don't think so. And then we starting into Mchu, Carson Beck, a third round rookie starting games by the end of the season. That makes me pretty nervous here. So, I I think he's a the first guy off your bench wide receiver. Find him in the right matchups. And I think a lot of things have to kind of go right for me to be wrong here.
>> So just to set the table, uh he's going 67th overall. So that's the seventh player in the sixth round over an underdog and a wide receiver 33 at this point. So people are drafting him as if they were in his starting in their starting lineup every single week as their wide receiver three because he's a top, you know, 36 wide receiver here on the board. Um, yeah. I mean, even if you look last year at where the Cardinals were in scoring, and it was tough to get there, and even Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't get there in this offense, they were 22nd in points scored across the league with 21 points per game. As you noted, they are projected to be the 32nd highest scoring offense. That's dead last uh at 18 and a half points right now. And like Reeves brought it up in in yesterday's show where Trey McBride ran what 120 more routes than any other tight end out there. Uh that means the wide receivers are also running more routes than their, you know, peers in competition as well. And it still didn't get to a point. So uh I want to be in the area with Marvin Harrison Jr. where he needs to show me something before I feel like I'm going to miss out on his like blow up breakout season because we haven't seen it so far.
>> Yeah, we haven't. The Cardinals were eighth in passing yards per game last year. I just don't think that's gonna repeat. And if that doesn't, then all of a sudden he's got to be a lot better than Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Not to mention the Jeremiah Love aspect, but they're going to be force-feeding the ball. Yeah. To their third overall pick. So, I just think this is one of the situations where, you know, he's I think he's a fine player. He's like a very fine NFL starter >> on a really bad team. >> I just don't think that should be like the the wide receiver 33 in ADP. I was thinking about this. Uh, this is the fifth iteration of the show that we done in our fifth year. Um, I was trying to draft in my mind the four names that you would bring to the table. Uh, Marvin Harrison Jr. was definitely on the list. I know that there's at least going to be another one. And I feel like Hayden, if I wrote this down, I get three of the four names that you're bringing here to this episode.
>> Okay. Yeah. I mean, you probably can.
>> By the way, we're in year five. Thank you all. I know many of you have been watching since that very first episode, since that very first month. Shout out to all of you. We are on the road to 175,000 subscribers. It would be so amazing if you could hit that subscribe button. It is totally free to all of you. Shout out to everyone who watches and hits that button. And also a like, a thumbs up. Uh, let's get a thousand on this very episode. All right, for me, I will stick with the wide receiver theme. I think DJ Moore at wide receiver 27 in the middle of the fifth round is pretty disgusting. Obviously, look, a quick hedge. If this hits, it's massive. You know, there are high-end outcomes because you're attached to Josh Allen, and that again, ceiling outcome is is fantastic. Let's also keep in mind that his career best season was in 2023, and he's declined sharply in each of the last two years. So, 2023, 80 yards per game, then down to 57 yards, and this past season down to 40 yards per contest. That was with Ben Johnson, one of the best play callers and offenses throughout the league. There are a number of wide receivers actually drafted after him, Hayden, that are straight up projecting him at this very moment. And it's not just one or two. I mean, the list is long. So to set the table, DJ Moore right now on underdog is projected for 764 receiving yards. Roma projected for more yards. Cardinal Tate, Jordan Tyson projected for more. Michael Pitman goes four full rounds later and is projected for more yards, receiving yards than DJ Moore. Marvin Harrison Jr., the name you just brought up, is somehow projected for nearly a hundred more yards than DJ Moore is right now. Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, DK Metaf. Again, the list goes on and on and on. And you can say, well, yards don't matter. It can just be touchdowns projected for a measly five and a half TDs. So, while again, I understand we have seen alpha seasons in the past from a wide receiver attached to Josh Allen, this offense is going to score points. I think what we have seen most recently with DJ Moore is a player in his decline, even if he goes back to being in Joe Brady's offense, which he previously had over 1100 yards in in Caroline.
>> Yeah, I think that his numbers are going to come back up from where they were the last couple seasons just because he has Josh Allen. Uh I I just don't think that he's going to be um like a total needle mover in this offense just because they get so many other guys involved here. So, they're going to want to make this work because they spent so much money and all the draft capital on there. I think he's going to be a pretty close to full-time player in this offense. I think that, you know, taking their swings on Amari Cooper and stuff. So, I don't think he's going to like fully bust from here. I think that would be like really tragic if he if he's not like a top 30ish uh fantasy wide receiver. But, I do think it's the people trying to make like the like real upside case. I think they have to be a little bit more um just they have to be more accepting of what he's put on the field the last couple seasons. I am really excited about the potential for him to get the deep ball back because the the best season that he had was with Justin Fields when he was throwing the ball way down the field and he was coming down with it because he's so explosive. Josh Allen has not been playing that style offense the last couple seasons. So, I think that's going to be the thing where is that because he didn't have the right wide receiver or is there something else going on the offense where they want this to be a little bit more Dalton Concade James Cookie? And if that's the case then I think DJ Moore the spike week potential is going to be a little bit uh maybe less reliable than we're hoping for.
>> And tell me if you have a different opinion on this. I do think we are always chasing this wide receiver one attached to Josh Allen because of the Stefon Diggs days and how he was one of the best assets in fantasy football. But unless my brain is misremembering, they have talked about how they don't want, you know, a number one wide receiver, an alpha wide receiver, that they want to like spread the football around. Uh, and to me, DJ Moore, when you go back and watch the previous two years, there are some obvious holes and weaknesses in his game, not just from like a talent standpoint, but also from like an effort and an alignment standpoint, too. So, if all that gets fixed and he's just extremely happy in Buffalo and this turns out to be an awesome second round investment that Brandon Bean made, then sure, it it can pay off. But I think we're just in a different era of this Bills passing offense than we were of the days of Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen being one like the more unstoppable duos in the league.
>> So, looking at the receivers after him, like you would rather have like the Roma Dunes day, I think that Christian Watson's a great pick. We talked about that with Lord Reeves on the last episode. Then >> even this fifth round, like I think there's such a stark difference in the Terry McLaren and Jaylen Waddle versus DJ Moore. And then we talked about liking the round five running backs more than the round four running backs. So like the Dave Montgomery to DeAndre Swift to Quinn Sean Judkins and Jadarian Price. >> Like there's just a lot more names in this round that I'd be excited to draft then click on DJ Moore's name, >> right? Uh I'm fine with him in this round. I don't I'm not like going out of my way to draft him. I would much rather have like DeAndre Swift, Jaylen Wadd, and McLaren right in front of >> And there's Lamar Jackson there, too, who could quarterback one that we're getting a huge discount on versus where he was going last year in the third round.
>> Yeah, yeah. Not a surprise that DJ Moore is in the same exact draft slot as the Josh Allen drafter in the third round. So, I think that this ADP is going to sit right here exactly for the entire summer. Um, and I think this is about the right spot, but I'm not believing in like a total upside case here. By the way, we're going to talk about underdog ADPs. You can see them on the board right now. This is throughout the entire summer. And if you've never done drafted on baseball, you should do it right now. All you do is draft. There's no lineups. There's no waiver. There's no, you know, getting injuries and then not having someone in your starting line because of a zero. It is the best way to spend your summers, whether walking your dog or out by the lake on the dock, outside grilling. So, use promo code the show. The link is in the description. Play five bucks. you get 50 bucks in your back pocket, too. So, go and play some baseball this summer. All right, two names down. Uh, I have a feeling who your second name is going to be. Just give it to me.
>> I'm going to rearrange my order and I'm just going to say Khalil Shakir, which was so funny. I was trying to bite my tongue here. I was trying to bite my tongue. I think the problem with Khalil Shakir is he had a 26% screen rate. So, that's like how many of which of his targets were actually screens. DJ Moore was seventh on that list. I think there's a chance that a lot of these screen targets with Khalil Shakir are going to end up going to DJ Moore. And aside from that, Khil Shakir is kind of pigeonholed away from the red zone because of his size. He got like a couple touchdowns down there because of a screen and he would have some yards after the catch appeal. I think he's a good football player, but I think we also have to incorporate that Dalton Concade missed time and then also was playing through injury this past season. So I think all of a sudden Dalton Concade, they want him to be better than Khil Shakir. Same thing with DJ Moore. Now we're looking at like the third receiver in the mix. You have to worry about somehow like a Keon Coleman getting involved. They run all these different personnel set. So I think all of a sudden his routes come down a little bit. It's a really balanced offense out there. So uh last year the number two uh receiver on this team uh was like way way way after Khil Shakir. That's just like not going to repeat. and as the wide receiver one on this team, he finishes the wide receiver 44 on wide receiver 49 usage. So, I just don't see like much upside appeal here and he can get down to the threshold where the routes and the targets per game aside from like the deepest of PPR leagues, it just doesn't move the needle enough. So, at this point in the draft, I want to take some shots on wide receivers I think have a chance to kind of go up. So, it's like the Casey Conps, like that kind of tier. I think even uh some guys even a little bit further down from this like Steph Diggs, uh Jaylen Naylor, some guys I think have a chance like really get enough targets to matter. I think he's going to be the number three guy in the offense here behind DJ Moore in Concaid and at that point like what exactly am I hoping for?
>> Yeah, I think again the Bills passing offense and I didn't expect to go for 12 minutes on this but it kind of breaks your brain in fantasy football where if you put on paper, oh they're the third highest scoring offense, we want all the pieces for that. you kind of don't like you wanted Josh Allen and you wanted James Cook and the rest you were frustrated on a weekly basis to put out there in your starting lineup and that's just how they have operated. I also speaking of operations uh don't know if you have seen this Twitter handle called Banged Up Bills but they go through injury news. This is back on May 20th. Uh quote, "We got a ton of injury info coming out of Bill's phase three OTAAS. Khalil Shakir underwent surgery this offseason. Return to OTAAS is wearing an ankle stabilizer to protect the healing ankle from surgery. Possible tightroppe procedure. Uh tightroppe is one of those terms that we do not want to talk about especially for a guy who relies on speed and yards after catch to create his fancy points."
>> Yeah. And the cutting. So obviously that that's that's big news over there as well. So I just think Don Concincaid as frustrating as he is like there's still some room for for upside if he can stay on the field healthy. And then last year with everything going right for go Khalil Shakir, he'd be he would have been like a fine pick at at this range. Nothing too crazy and that's like with everything kind of breaking his way. So I'm out.
>> All right, I'll stay in this range then. Uh 10th round. If you look at projected passing touchdowns, unfortunately Tyler Shuck as quarterback 19 is overpriced. Um underdog predicts him for 19 and a half passing touchdowns this season. You can also find 18 and a half as a number out there. That means there are only three quarterbacks, three that have a lower projection in terms of passing scores. Cam Ward, Malik Willis, and Fernando Mendoza, which we expect him to what play 11 games at max. Now, we can add in rushing touchdowns. His projection there is at four and a half, and that's after, I think, three rushing scores last year in nine games as a starter. Uh, and then you can also look at his projected passing yards. That's at 3500. So, that is right in the middle. So, if you put that all together, and Hayden, after the show, if you want to do the math and how I got it wrong, that's fine. You can do that. Uh, basically, again, if you convert all those into fantasy points per game, that puts him in line with what Sam Darnold put out last year as quarterback 25 in points per game. Again, in nine starts, 10 passing scores, three rushing scores last year. So, overall, if I zoomed out and I look at offenses that could take a step this season, do I think this number is low? I do. I mean, it's Kell Moore. We talk about pace and plays all the time. They added Travis Han. They also added Jordan Tyson. Uh, even getting like Oscar Delp to work in like 12 and 13 personnel sets, I think, is really cool. But, and these things are tied together. It's not just like the individual projected stuff here for Tyler Shuck. It's also the projections for the offense. I mean, the Saints are projected for the 24th most points. So, I don't entirely hate Tyler Shuck as quarterback 19, although I would take Malik Willis over him. But in this round 10, there just other names I want to click more and Casey Conpion and Bill Crosky Merritt and definitely Matthew Golden there at the top of round 10 just because I think that like there's some real upside outcomes there and the projected numbers here for Teller Shuck do not indicate a real upside outcome.
>> I almost had Jordan Tyson on my list. I think Shuck is a good one. This one's pretty complicated because I have him as listed as like a higher on his pickham lobby projections like you're saying. I think the Saints are going to score more points and being number 24 and still he's priced way too close to the other quarterbacks that were like very clearly going to be fantasy quarterback ones. Like he's not that far off from freaking Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray.
>> Kyler Murray is kind of right there. I think >> Jordan Love and Malik Willis are going to be pretty interesting. So, uh I I kind of like Tyler Shuck. We're going to talk about him a lot in like a couple weeks here when we go through the the second uh year players uh week. Um, so I'll save like all the film notes there. I think he's going to be pretty solid. I just think it's a little bit hard for him to kind of squeeze out his current projections versus the ADP in relation to the other guys. Like I I would just rather pay the premium on the Justin Herberts of the world, the the the Trevor Lawrenes of the world and then kind of like those 2v2s versus Tyler Shuck. And this is nothing to say anything bad about Tyler Shuck and Kell Moore. I think they're gonna be totally fine. Uh, I just think that the ADP is like a round off right now.
>> Again, if you want to place him here in your rankings, I I understand it. I also think with everything that we've said, he's kind of being drafted at one of his higher end outcomes if we're just zooming out and looking at uh what other markets are are suggesting here for the Saints. But again, we're going to have one of the shows where we discuss uh the highest scoring offense, the projected lowest ones, and predict some that might uh overdo that. I I guess my bigger question here though, like if we're talking about the Saints and just projected as the 24th highest scoring offense, um that means Travis Achan is a third round pick. That means Chris Ave is a third round pick. That means Jordan Tyson is a six six round pick. Like this is rich.
>> Yeah, I think one of two things are off or maybe both. Jordan Tyson's overpriced or Tyler Shook's projections in the pickum lobby are way underelling it. Like those two things cannot be true together. I do think Olive is so good uh and he was being used in different ways. I think he's fine. I feel very very confident that Trevor uh Travis A is going to be a baller um in this offense as well. I just think that you know Shuck plus Jordan Tyson it's not math and out right now.
>> All right, four down, four more to go. Who's next?
>> Let's go to DK Mechaf. Um this is a situation where there's a lot more target competition. the price tag hasn't really budged and there was more evidence last year that the Aaron Rogers upside case has a lot lower chance of paying off. So he was the wide receiver 27 on wide receiver 34 expected points last year. He was the wide receiver 32 in targets per game. That's about where his ADP is. The problem is Michael Pitman I think is a really good fit with Aaron Rodgers. All those like checks that DK Metaf was getting on slants out of out of run calls. I think Michael Pitman could do a whole lot of that. And I just begin to wonder, is DK Metaf going to like his A dots going to go way back up because he's not going to get the gimmies? And at the same time, Aaron Rogers doesn't want to throw the ball down the field because he doesn't want to get hit. So, he was actually the per game wide receiver 42 and targets of 15 plus air yards this past season. I think that's mostly an Aaron Rogers stat. I don't think DK Metaf's game has really changed all that much. I think he's a really solid wide receiver, but I just think that Michael Pitman's going to get involved a little bit more. I think Jeremy Bernard as among like second round rookies, he seems pretty Aaron Rodgers coded and I think they're going to run the ball behind this pretty solid offensive line here. So, I have him like around lower than where he's currently being projected. The the Aaron Rodgers, you know, being 42 years old, like one injury and then all of a sudden we're into a pretty difficult situation here. So, I just think that the gimmies are going to go down, the inconsistency is going to go down, and in reddraft, you're going to be trying to say, "Okay, the Steelers are projected for 22 points this week, and DK Mechaf now gets four or five targets per game. Is this the week when he's going to catch the long pass?" And that game is pretty terrifying to me.
>> I mean, they basically tried to transform DK Mechaf into Michael Pitman last year.
>> Yep.
>> It was crossing routes that were very short, some RPO stuff, and slants and like a lot of stuff in the trash in the middle of the field. That's where Michael Pippen has done his best work in Indianapolis. That's never where DK Metaf does some of his best stuff. I mean, I remember one catch, I think it was against the Vikings that he took a short pass and outran everyone. It's like, cool, we get to see it, but we just don't get to see like the special sauce that DK Metaf brings to an NFL team with Aaron Rogers at quarterback. It's just not that type of thing. And sure, every game we might get one throw from Aaron Rogers. It's like, oh, old man still got it. Like the placement, the flick of the wrist, all that type of stuff. But, uh, it's very different than getting multiple of those opportunities per game here for DK. And, uh, yeah, I mean, it goes from basically being the only wide receiver on the team last year to Michael Pitman and even Jeremy Bernard who has experience all over the field during his time at Alabama.
>> Yep. Last note for me, uh, in, uh, three or four wide receiver sets last year, 15% target share for DK Metaf when he was the only wide receiver out there, that was a 25% chance. when you start chopping off some of the wide receivers like the John or the tight ends, the Johnny Smiths. I'm expecting the Steelers just to use uh three wide receiver sets a little bit more. That goes back to Mike McCarthy as well. And all of a sudden, I just fearful that Michael Pitman is like not that different than DK Mechaf in terms of just like the the the target share number. So, I would just rather take Michael Pitman a whole lot le uh later. And by the way, the Michael Pitman projections are like pretty rock solid for his ADP.
>> Yeah. Uh, I was stunned going through it and so are Courtland Sutton's by the way. The the markets have not given up on Courtland Sutton here in terms of touchdowns and receiving yards.
>> Yeah, I love Courtland Sutton. I I think I I'm on his lower.
>> Uh, people love drafting rookies, Hayden, so let's talk about a rookie here. Carell Tate's ADP is disgusting, but it's disgustingly too low. Okay.
>> Wow. Okay. Hit me. So, Cal Bernone posted this graphic and we'll get producer Reeves to throw it up here uh of where rookie wide receivers have been drafted since 2021. And despite being the fourth overall pick, let's me remind you that's where Colonel Tate was just drafted a couple months ago, Tate is going as the 60th overall selection right now. So again, since 2021, five rookie wide receivers have been selected higher than that. Malik Neighbors finished as the wide receiver, eight in points per game, draft as the wide receiver 18 that year. T-Mac just this past season finished as the wide receiver 22, drafted as the wide receiver 17. So that's a small loss. Jamar Chase finished as the wide receiver four in points per game after being selected as the wide receiver 21 in underdog drafts. And Mechbuka we know finished as the wide receiver 26 last year drafted as the wide receiver 29. The one big whiff is a name that you brought up first here. Uh Marvin Harrison Jr. because people lost their freaking mind and drafted him 13th overall at the one-two turn. I think he was a name in the show, by the way, back in that year.
>> Yes, of course.
>> And he finishes the wide receiver 43 in in points per game. So, look, two huge wins, one small win, and one small loss. So, that price tag that we're talking about here with Carell Tate isn't close to a lot of the names that we're mentioning. I mean, he's 60th overall and being selected as the wide receiver 30 in drafts right now. So, basically what I'm saying is I don't think that there's bottoming out potential here for Carl Tate. He is a technician. He can line up all over the field. He has incredible hands. And Brian Debbal is willing to feature young wide receivers in the past and he wants to push the football down the field. So, at worst, it's a small loss, but then I think even more so what I want to lean into here is that there's big win potential. Like, what if Cam Ward plays like the first overall pick like he was last year and Carnell Tate looks like an alpha wide receiver that he was drafted to be? So, this is to me a discount on a rookie wide receiver who was cleared the number one wide receiver on his team. And that almost never happens when we're talking about underdog and fancy drafts in general.
>> Yeah, I think my like closest comparables to him were Ted Ted McMillan who was the wide receiver 24, Chris Ave wide receiver 24 as a rookie, Garrett Wilson wide receiver 30 as a rookie, Drake London wide receiver 41 as a rookie. And then Roman Dunes I think maybe is another comp for him. He was he had a pretty difficult rookie season. Uh there's just not that much competition here. Like Wandell Robinson is fine. Calvin Ridley is fine. You know, they don't really have that a standout tight end. So, I kind of have him at this ADP. I like him a lot more than I like Jordan Tyson one spot uh apart right here. Um I think there's a chance that he's a lot better than people are giving him credit for. like once you're once he's not competing with Jeremiah Smith, once Ohio State's not throwing the football in the fourth quarter because they have like four top 50 picks in the NFL draft on defense, all of a sudden there's going to be more shootouts and Carninal Tate just numbers are going to look a lot better. And he crushed against zone, he crushed against man coverage, over three uh yards per route run in both of those. He's a five-star recruit out of the IMG Academy, balled out early on as at Ohio State uh despite having all that target competition. So, I think he's a really good football player. I'm hoping Cam Ward gets a lot better here. Um I think he's going to have like a 20% target uh share as a rookie. I think that's uh pretty exciting.
>> I have another rookie. Um, can I just transition to that?
>> Go for it.
>> Um on the opposite end, I don't think I'll be drafting much Omar Cooper. All right, we're talking about the 12th round here. Uh it's not like this price is expensive. Again, it's wide receiver 59, the eighth pick of the 12th round, so 140 overall. But it's the story that like you have to tell yourself that he becomes a very strong asset in fantasy football this season that loses me. Okay, first we're talking about the offense that is projected to score the second fewest points in the league this year. Second fewest. Okay, despite all the assets that they put in on the offensive side. Uh they also have an unquestioned alpha in Garrett Wilson. So this isn't like a first round wide receiver on paper that we just talked about with Carell Tate who should step in as our number one wide receiver. In fact, they drafted Omar Cooper after already drafting Kenyan Sadi. So, even in this draft class, he was their second pass catcher that they selected. And I actually think AD Mitchell is likely to open the season as the X and likelier to be out there in two tight end sets, which I think we're going to get quite a bit of with Mason Taylor and Kenan Sadique according to, you know, the Jets plans. So, to recap all of that, we have one of the worst projected offenses with a third round fantasy draft pick at running back, a fourthround fantasy draft pick at wide receiver, and then an awkward opportunity pipeline after that. And to me, if you still want to draft rookies, there are actually other rookies being selected after him, like Denzel Boston or Antonio Williams two rounds later that have a clearer path to targets on possibly better offenses. Um, and even if you want like to do a veteran, Jaylen Naylor in the next round, I think has a better pathway to targets and is in a projected better offense, too.
>> I got Omar Cooper listed as a lower in the underdog projections. I think that's like my favorite way to play this because he's projected for 624 yards. Like that would be a really good season I think for for Omar Cooper because I think what you said is is very true. Is he going to be out there in three wide receiver sets or in two wide receiver sets? Because if he's only out there as like the slot or or the flanker only in three wide receiver sets, that's just not going to cut it. And
>> 50% route participation 55%.
>> Right. And you know it's Garrett Wilson that you're trying to compete with. So, I think they have to use the two tight end sets because they drafted tight ends really early in back-to-back drafts. Um, and with Omar Cooper, he snuck in there as a first round wide receiver. My opinion is he was not a first round wide receiver talent in general. I liked his yards after the catch ability, but it wasn't anything too crazy. I thought his route running was kind of raw. His contested catch situation was kind of really up and down. He made some fantastic ones, struggled in other situations. I thought he was a round two wide receiver. And then in this draft class, you push him up a little bit. Uh I think he's got a decent enough floor for the Jets, but in this offense this year, I think it's just asking a lot. Uh so he's like my wide receiver 70 and like your home leagues, you should not be drafting.
>> Now, with that said, I I feel like rounds, I don't know, 12 through 18 this year, the the late rounds are lacking in terms of a talent pool than more so than we've ever had before.
>> Um that's anecdotal. Maybe that's incorrect, but
>> No, that's that's a fact. It it is tough drafting once you get to I don't know around 12 13 especially 15 through 18. It's it's pretty brutal.
>> Yeah.
>> Um but I almost just want to rank Jaylen Naylor ahead of Omar Cooper straight up. And again I'm like you. I I like certain aspects of Omar Cooper's game. Gumby like movements. Uh you know he absorbs contact. He he wins on contact. He's physical after the catch. I know he played more outside in 2024 and then played on the inside in 2025. Uh, and look, maybe Antonio Williams where he was selected and we're just banking an opportunity. That doesn't work out. Or Denzel Boston being a second round wide receiver attached to Deshun Watson, Shu Sanders. That doesn't work out. But, uh, I can already talk myself again into a pipeline of targets for those three names that I said versus what Omar Cooper is probably going to get this year. I
>> I would guess that Brandon Strange straight up out scores Omar Cooper and he goes after, you know, just one of those situations.
>> Interesting. Yeah, this is one where like the tight ends can outscore the wide receivers in this area.
>> Yep, that's for sure.
>> Okay. Uh, we've been agreeing way too much, Hayden. I've had this one name in mind that I was certain you were going to talk about here today. Is this your last name?
>> It's a entire team's position that I'm going for, and I think you're going to be right. Is it Broncos running backs? Were you talk were you kind of uh looking at RJ Harvey? Which one was it?
>> I I'll just say it before you get started. I saw you tweeting about Luther Burton and I thought you were going to bring Luther Burden to the table here today.
>> I wanted to have that conversation for another show. It's going to be that's going to be like maybe like the most difficult ranking show. I think that's going to be in there. We're going to have a lot of opportunity to talk about Luther Burton, so I did not uh include him in this show, but the the onoff splits are going to be pretty crazy. You're going to have to pick your side with Luther Burden. Well, for the for the Broncos,
>> that's really disappointing here real quick, Hayden, because uh
>> I thought you were going to be negative about Luther and then Ben Johnson, you know, 20 minutes before the episode says, quote, "I'm buying Luther Burton stock right now." And so, not only you have to disagree with me,
>> yeah, I'm buying Luther Burton stock right now.
>> But also, uh, you know, his head coach and play caller and offensive coordinator.
>> The timing would have been bad. And guess what? He was initially on the list. I text Mo show weaves. I said, "We're going to have to pivot today. This is not today is not the day to come out negative with Luther Burden. So we have we have the whole summer for me to be uh more realistic here. But uh Luther Burden's fine. Enjoy it. Uh this is the time for for Luther Burden. Um as for the Broncos running backs, I just think that the entire committee is overpriced. The reality is Shawn Payeyton wants to use a bunch of running backs and he's got the three very clearly here with Jonah Coleman I think being an upgrade over kind of like the rotation they've had at running back three four the last couple seasons. I don't think that's going to change. I also want to acknowledge that the Broncos offensive line last year was arguably the best in the NFL. They didn't miss almost any time. They had a center injury uh late in the year, but the backup center was totally fine. They had one of the best uh guards uh one of the two best tackles on both sides there. Are all these guys going to stay healthy? Is Boon Knicks going to stay healthy like he did last year? And then some of the the receiving production that an RJ Harvey could possibly get. All of a sudden, you have Jaylen Wadd and they still have the other manufactured wide receivers that I'm sure going to be involved to a certain degree. So kind of everything was going right for the Broncos last year. And JK Dobbins, he was the running back 25 on running back 29 usage for the first 10 weeks of the season. He's priced just after that, but he just also broke his foot and like the the reliability for JK Dobbins is too uh too tough to ignore, but I do think he's going to be the starter because they gave him $10 million guaranteed this off seasonason. So then you get to RJ Harvey and when Jobins was healthy, RJ Harvey was the RB36 on RB54 usage with everything going right for the Broncos. So I think someone's going to have to get injured for this to kind of go up. And you can say that about any of the running backs. Like what happens to Blake Korn if Kir Kairen Williams uh goes down? So I think like he should be priced closer to the handcuff range. Uh but I don't want to be trying to like buy JK Dobbins either. And then same thing with Jonah Coleman. He's going to be one of these kind of like late round running backs. Like could he straight up win the job? I don't think that he was that good of a prospect. He's kind of old reliable. like he's kind of the guy that to me gets in the way of other guys but doesn't establish himself as like somebody that's like worthy of like double digit touches in a game. So I just I'm looking at Shawn Peyton like he's telling us for a decade here in a row I want three running backs on the field and I just don't think that any of these guys are going to completely run away with the job and then at that point it's like all right like we have like the running back 33 in fantasy like who cares.
>> Uh okay a few things to hit on here. Um, overall I I think I agree with you, but that's if JK Dobbins stays healthy. Um, look, you can always write like JK Dobbins was on pace to have a career season because it's true, but then he just misses games. And I'm I'm not someone that, you know, is an injury predictor here, but unfortunately, it has happened every single season here for
>> and big ones that he it doesn't like miss a game or two. He misses massive chunks of the season. Now, if he stays healthy, like two years ago was one of my favorite picks on the board and and that was awesome until it wasn't, you know. Uh and and the thing to back up what you're saying with Shawn Peyton, um he's never had a back with 250 carries in one of his offenses, but he has had 24 different backs hit 50 targets. Uh and RJ Harvey did hit 50 plus targets last season. Um, look, I understand as the running back 20 overall that RJ Harvey early on in the season was not a fun pick. I will say that one thing during my paternity leave that I vastly disagreed with you on is you naming Cam Scataboo as the rookie of the year where to me it easily should have been RJ Harvey over him because like there was this huge portion of the season where the games mattered most where RJ Harvey was one of the highest scoring running backs in all of fantasy football. I mean, weeks of running back six, nine, four, five, 11 and 11 during, you know, week eight through week 17. And so, sure, when you watched was some of that on third downs in the red zone near the goal line, they had these package plays 100%. Um, can that be repeated? Probably not. But, uh, I also am not ruling out like RJ Harvey kind of improving as a player here in year two as well.
>> Yeah, without Dobbins available, he was the RB17 on RB10 usage. like that's like that's what we're hoping for. I think we can say that about a bunch of handcuffs that would kind of go into that role. Um, and I I still will say the efficiency metrics for RJ Harvey were pretty tough. He was 42nd in EPA per carry, 32nd in rush yards over expected. That's out of 46 qualifying running backs behind the best offensive line in football. So, I think
>> but the best offensive line stuff like the year before with Javvante Williams was also really good. Like he wasn't a very good fantasy asset. Yeah, I thought last year the Broncos offensive line was probably just a step above even that. Um, but and then yeah, Bo Knicks maybe slightly better. It's one of these guys can pay off. Like that's not not not the argument. It's just I think that RG Harvey is priced way way higher than a lot of the contingent based guys. And I think right now like the the Broncos signed JK Dobbins for $10 million guaranteed this year. Like that just happened. It's a lot of money. Uh, and they were also flirting with uh Travis Aan. They were flirting with Kenneth Walker. They were flirting with Jadarian Price. like they they made it very clear we want to upgrade the running back position. They were able just to return it with JK Dobbins, but I do think that they were flirting with a lot of running backs and like you can read into that being an indictment on R.J. Harvey to like within reason. Uh and I think
>> I think you could also make the case that if they didn't have since they didn't have a bigger investment than Jonah Coleman, that's actually the best possible outcome here for RJ.
>> Yes, I I definitely agree. I just think it was kind of surprising to me like that Dobbins got $10 million. Like that that's a lot of money. like that that to me makes it pretty clear in week one if everyone's healthy they are assuming JK Dobbins is going to be the starter and then obviously if Harvey improves uh he can steal his job. I also wanted to acknowledge R.J. Harvey. I thought was a very boom bust prospect. Like his athleticism shined, but he's also a 24 year old coming from UCF. Uh, and he's not the biggest guy out there. So, like I'm going into this like, all right, is does it feel like he's booming or does it feel like he's busting? And like after this first year, to me, I'm feeling more like he's going to be on the bust side of the conversation.
>> Yeah. I mean, I'm just looking at my notes that I had for R.J. Harvey. And again, he had to he was drafted as running back 20 to close drafts. But the final line that I had was again, be patient. Give me until week six and this will pay off in a big way. It had to wait until week eight, but he was the running back 13 in points per game for the rest of the season in like the point of the calendar, which wins and loses your fantasy seasons. And he was a major major asset.
>> Yep. Until week 18 and then the playoffs and then did nothing again. So it's like
>> No, I know. I know. I whenever just like when whenever I'm referencing any metrics on the show, I include the postseason stats because obviously those matter like probably more than the regular season stats in general. And uh some of these players we talk about like all of a sudden like the postseason stuff wasn't as exciting and we should probably factor that into to some degree here.
>> Um okay, I think that's eight names. Did we cover it?
>> Yeah, threw in a couple bonus names. Jonah Coleman takedown on on May 28th. Why not? Yeah, I even uh had one that was super late, but maybe we'll save that for uh some some wide receiver sleeper shows in in the future. By the way, you're seeing these new looks. Uh we have some let's say cool pages and tools on the way uh in a couple of weeks here. So, these are little tees whenever you're seeing these new visuals. Um and in the near future, maybe you'll be able to access them as well. That does it. I'll be back next week with a couple of episodes. Uh hopefully crossing your fingers on an AJ Brown trade finally. So, our long-serving nightmare can be over. Uh, the trade that apparently was happening a month ago can finally happen. What's up?
>> I almost put AJ Brown and Mai Loman on this list. I was like, we next week we'll probably have all that covered. So,
>> yeah, not today.
>> Again, also in my thought was Devonte Smith being drafted after AJ Brown right now was a part of that, but uh, you know, I landed on the four that I did. All right,
>> that does it. Again, shout out to all of you that watch these episodes and hit subscribe. You know, there's a portion who watches and just goes on with their day, but we love we love the ones that for free hit that subscribe button and also uh leave us a thumbs up because the more that people do that, then the more this video will be put in front of other people's faces. So, shout out to Weaves and Mosho behind the scenes and Hayden in front of the camera. Up the villa, everyone. We'll talk to you'all soon. See?