Transcription
Today's number, guys, is six because we've witnessed over the last 24 hours some massive darkpool activity from Wall Street. And it all has to do with the truth social post and of course massive movements up to key resistance and supply areas. As trend lines are tested on the S&P 500 that we've been following over the last week, and the bonds market continues to show signs of distress. Are we really seeing a market in recovery or more of what they call in the technical world a dead cap bounce? Well, we need to go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos to better understand how this all correlates together. Join us guys. This one is not to be missed.
Well, welcome back everybody to the daily show. What a 24 hours that was with the truth social post moving markets billions and billions of dollars up 3% in a matter of minutes. We're actually live streaming this. If it's your first time here, make sure to subscribe and hit that bell icon. We live streamed the Monday open and we saw it in real time as those markets moved. Today we're discussing the latest in macro, what Wall Street flow looks like over the last 24 hours, and of course the key levels, including some massive option zones that we need to discuss.
But before we get into all of that, I did also want to make a quick announcement. We've got a special VIP chart that we're going to be releasing on Wednesday, totally free if you sign up for the newsletter down below. It's going to be a pretty cool one and I think it's one of those charts that you want to have in your reminder list. If you want to get access to that, pin comment down below. Sign up for the free newsletter. We'll send it out on Wednesday this week. So, it's going to be pretty awesome. Thank you very much, guys.
All right, let's talk about the major US listed countries and ETF performance. We first need to understand how flows have been moving recently, the darkpool activity, and of course, the data surrounding everything that's been going on. But to start off with, it's pretty clear that it's been a risk-off kind of environment around the world. And this chart here from Blue Kurdic over on X kind of shows that certain markets such as South Africa actually instantly pretty much have gone into what we call technical bear markets where basically the market goes from the top to the bottom 20%. And that's entering into what we call a technical bear. It also kind of highlights as well that the US market actually while being down and starting to show signs of you know potential distress is nowhere near as bad as some of the others and this is because often money will come back to the major currency pair being the US dollar and we do see a lot of rebalancing in these types of times. So does this mean that the US market is looking good or is it looking really bad?
Well, first up let's have a look at the darkpool activity. There's been a lot of it recently and this chart here from volume leaders is pretty massive in terms of distribution. Could this be a sign of the times? Monstrous activity all in a very compressed state and this has been happening since the Federal Reserve first did their rate cut last year back in September. So why is this all really important? Well, it also starts to highlight some of these key potential kind of resistance or maybe even topping zones. This particular chart here which shows the S&P US growth ETF had some massive activity being the number one largest trade only a few weeks ago and since then it's of course remained to the downside but more importantly it's remained in this kind of channel or range-bound style market. Now we almost broke towards the downside over the last 24 hours and I guess it was kind of barely saved by that truth social post. So, a lot of key structures in the US kind of just held on, but we did see some big activity here. So, there were a lot of a lot of dark pools going through, but I thought I'd just highlight one here, which is the SPYM, which is the S&P portfolio, S&P 500 ETF. And what you guys will notice is that we have quite a lot of transactions that are all going through at a very key level. So, basically speaking, is this an important level? Of course, it is. And what tends to happen in these zones is that of course we are looking at the activity and the the reaction to it. So we know that 6600 which is effectively the area here for the S&P has a lot of puts on it has a lot of options activity. But we've also seen the second largest trade now the sixth largest trade as the markets rallied back up to that resistance level and the 17th largest trade all clustering around the same zone. If we think about this as a trend line down, we think about this as a low, a high, and a lower low from a technical side. If we breach to the upside, make a new higher high, break through the trend line, that could be kind of what we're looking for in terms of if you're the bull side when it comes to markets from a technical base. And this is something we discussed in our live stream over the last 24 hours where we saw this reaction to the truth social post which obviously uh was you know from Trump and then we saw of course the reaction from the other side which is you know at this stage unclear but at least things are kind of you know starting to settle out in terms of the markets and really it's what happens here that's going to count. We didn't actually get a break past the resistance and we'll show that later on today's show as we look for the supply as we look for the larger activity. So, it's interesting to see the dark pool right on the peak there as the markets rallied into the open and then of course started to settle after that.
Now, there are some other stats here from the market stats. I like this one which is the NASDAQ composite down at least nine of the past 10 weeks. Now it's really rare to see big tech of course starting to fail and at the same time to be at a high. If you note through all the other periods usually we've already been in a market that's actually sold off. I noticed here that the average max drawdown was around 20%. So that suggests that was actually usually a technical bear market that we were in during these times. But this time's unique. It's happening near the peak. Now could that be a buy the dip style signal? I mean basically something where if you look at the stats here, I'd be a little careful on that one because of course in general what this had usually shown is the market had already been weak. Interested to see your comments down below. We've been talking a lot about AI recently and how that's going to turn into profits in the future. And of course, I think every earning season this year is going to be huge. So sub to the channel because and set those alerts because these next earnings periods are going to be massive for these markets. And I expect and I think we all do a lot of volatility coming through.
Another chart here from Blue Kurdic basically shows that we've had a lot of intraday reversals. Now you tend to see these intraday reversals as you can see here off kind of bases or during periods of panic. In fact, according to the state uh stats here in the last 50 trading days, the S&P 500 saw 24 sessions that flip positive to negative and vice versa. So that is of course large volatility even though it's inside a very tight space. Now similar whipsaws were seen only during 2022 bear market and ahead of and this is an important part the 2008 financial crisis. So it's another sign that panic is starting to come into the markets a little bit and it's in the form of volatility and we know that because the VIX is up and I'm sure you guys have been experiencing from the charts. It's one of those times where you've got to be paying attention to everything, including these key breakouts because although they can be reversed by potential true social posts and stuff, ultimately the flow is going to show us probably the direction of what they're doing, not what they're saying.
Let's have a look here at the S&P 500 valuation. This one here from Duality Research is really cool. It kind of just shows you how over time, this is kind of, you know, how we look at the multiples. And then sometimes there are over of course overpriced and sometimes there are oversold markets. At the moment according to Friday 20th of March you can see here it's kind of coming more back down. So will we go a bit lower first? Are we going to go into like an 18 or 17 times earnings ratio? That's of course they're one of the big questions people are asking or could it get even worse? Financial sectors. These have been sitting on support for the last couple of days. Of course they hit the press and often we say if it's in the press it's in the price. And then now what we've seen is uh that the markets themselves have found some stabilization for us. This chart here from Blue Kurdic basically shows that the MACD and the actual momentum of the financials after the last 24 hours started to improve. Too early to say though very very interesting stats here but obviously still a lot of liquidity.
Now let's have a look at the performance of structure. Now, we talk about structure on this channel a lot because really the way that we saw silver was that when that volatility came in a few months ago, we looked at similar situations in the past when of course they've sold off as much as they did. And usually what happened was this kind of thing or even worse that kind of thing. We didn't usually see a straight rebound to the top and that's kind of the way it's played out. Now, in terms of major global oil supply disruptions, the way that it's usually played has been that the market stays not that good, I guess, for the first 60 to 100 days and then a decision is made whether it's going to go worse or whether it's it's going to, of course, hopefully improve. Now, it's an interesting stat. Structure is key and we like to look at that, of course, on the show.
When it comes to inflation, this report here from Carl Quintanilla, it's similar to something we've seen before in terms of charts, what you'll notice is that many people are kind of drawing the overlay from the 1970 stagflation period. Basically, it's uncanny in some ways how it's working. And in some ways, you know, we already know that inflation's back in. I've seen plenty of reports from you guys in the comment section. We asked over the last 24 hours. One of you said that a recent event that you were at, as in like literally coming up, is going to be 20% more expensive because of these energy rises. So, the food uh area, the energy area, obviously energy ends up impacting inflation big time. And that's what we've seen here. And this is similar to this chart that we continue to share here from the uh Borgget over on X because basically this chart here although it doesn't have updated 2026 stats has shown that when in the past we've seen massive oil spikes or big oil change that it can either already be in a recession or it could be a sign of further distress. And this coupled with what we've already been witnessing in terms of rising costs of living and of course that being people's major concern uh Tavi Costa here on X and Aurora Capital you can see have where energy leads food often follows and we talked about this in the last video go check that out where we looked at some of the agri stocks particularly uh fertilizer stocks which have been really really heavy in terms of the the increase over the last couple of days and um yeah it looks like yeah fertilizer costs are going to go skyrocketing through the roof. So if that does happen, it impacts food, it impacts demand, and of course that can create what we call demand destruction. So a lot of people are talking about stagflation, but maybe the worst case scenario here is actually worse in some.
Well, I don't know which one's worse. Stagflation is pretty bad, guys, but maybe we're even going to go into a deflation. You know, the the issue is I know stagflation is the most popular, but there's a case for the other one. We'll talk more about that as this situation unfolds.
Daily sentiment before leading into all of this from the market stats. As you can see here, most of the sentiment reports were all showing maximum fear. The key really to all of this is when we look at maximum fear, we have to look at the charts. So, let's take a look here at the S&P 500 and understand what's happened so far. So, we'll kind of step it back for a second and talk about what we've been seeing in recent weeks. We talked about the 20 moving average, one of our favorite basic indicators. When times get crazy, when things on the VIX get spiky, we often look to the 20, which is considered mean reversion. This is the weekly chart. We can see that when we close below the 20, we often retest it from the bottom up and then we find as resistance. That's exactly what happened. Then we often come down to the 50 and we find usually around that period of time, sometimes a buy pressure that starts to come in and because of the truth social post, uh it I guess it did and the markets have of course rallied since that point. But the other one that we mentioned which is got that famous quote from Paul Judy Jones around nothing good happens underneath the 200 day moving average. Well, it just so happens that that is where the markets rallied over the last 24 hours and that is where we found some resistance. Now, kind of looks similar to what happened in 2025 when we can see here that we had that rally. There's the 200 day moving average, this green line here. And you can see it acted as as dynamic resistance from after it broke below. Now, if it gets above the 200, that's a really positive sign because if you look at the 200 once it's gone below and then it's broken through and gone back up, it often shows that it was a false break to the downside, contract shorts and then of course move towards the kind of, you know, more uh strengthening market and maybe the the market that starts to do a little bit of a squeeze. Now, we don't know that's going to happen yet, but we have come up to this critical level.
So, let's take a look. Firstly, volume massive huge Friday. I think the second largest ever in terms of OPEX. So that was a massive massive triple witching. And then as volume's coming through over the this last 24 hours, it looks like that's really big as well. So a lot of activity coming through.
Let's have a look now at the US futures. As we talked about in our live show, uh we actually saw that the markets rallied up. They did make a slightly higher high which broke through this of course previous kind of lower high lower low area and they've come back up to this all-important trend line which we've been following on the way down. Now, have they done enough to change significant trend? Usually, you'd be wanting to see it break the trend line, break the higher high. And a lot of people say, "Oh, well, you know, then you miss the whole move and stuff like that." The thing is with technical analysis or any kind of flow movement is you do usually want to see the market, that is Wall Street actually find a bid. Um, that is if you're going to buy into markets, you know, a lot of you guys and a lot of people when they first do it, they buy the dip and then it keeps dipping. And the problem with that is you might find a critical level, but it's actually usually better to to actually buy the bid um or the V-shape. And the reason why that is is because at least then you know there's some flow, some momentum behind you. Now, it's not a solicitation to do anything, guys. I'm just kind of going through the education side. If you want to find out more about how we do some of that, we do have it in some of our courses over at fxevolution.com. Again, links in the description down below. It's always awesome to have you guys uh come on over and uh join the community.
So let's have a look here at the US 500 options low, options high levels. These are of course the uh the ranges for the next day and we do see markets coming back to this level. Now if we take a quick volume profile of the way down, you're going to notice that we came and we ended up closing right around that most traded area and 6600 comes up a lot because 6600 is basically an options level.
Now I want to show you also the Qs. So, we've got gaps left behind on both the S&P and the Qs now sitting again around weekly 50s. So, it makes sense why the market may try to hold this level, but it's a little early to tell exactly what's going on. If we go here to the daily, you can see it. And I'm going to load up the futures market. So, you can see that we regained past 24,000. So, a lot of people would have been trying to short underneath this zone, thinking of it as technical breakout. It kind of closed the daily as you can see here right on the support, went lower on the Monday and then rallied back up. Now, it's a little bit nasty because of course if people are going to be trying to short it, that's going to take out many people's stop losses and put pressure on that position. But you'll notice here that it's still on the higher time frames, it's still a series of lower lows and lower highs. So, it's done a little bit, but no matter which market we are looking at, all of them are kind of gone back to the resistance. And you'll actually notice that this also happened on Bitcoin.
So let's break down the options itself. Net expirations for the S&P. As you guys can see here, we have that kind of 6500 level coming through quite clearly. The 6,500 level is, you know, basically the number one expiration now for the S&P moving forward. 66 also very close 64. So this is where we have the clusters that 200 point range. So why did the 6,500 level find some pressure? Well, it's not just the truth social. We're also seeing it, of course, in the overall uh market flow. We can also see a similar thing here when it comes to anything under 65 towards 64. Very powerful. Very powerful on the 24th. 6465. Again, these put walls, they're massive all to around 65 and 64. So, that's why there's a bit of pressure around there on top of, of course, uh the tweet. Now, on on top of all of that, it's like not everything's confirmed. So either way, it's just of course a 5-day kind of cease at this point. But the market will take anything it can get to to push around these options levels. As you as you can see here, the cues themselves around that 590. We've talked about 600 590 quite a few times. You can see again we ended up being at just around 588. So basically on that 590 and it's amazing how markets will gravitate towards these key put levels.
Thought I'd update a couple of single stocks. Tesla, not too much going on here. 380 has generally been around that put zone and Nvidia holding on to 170 guys the 170 important zone and you can see here absolutely holding it for now. What about Bitcoin's a little bit different. Bitcoin seems to have more flow towards the upside as it is something that is in what we call structural kind of basing pattern at this point. And you can see here the 40 marker is an important level for Bitcoin because we get quite a lot of calls that start to move through 40 into 42 and that can create what we call a positive gamma squeeze style event.
Let's now jump on over to the charts that matter. We'll look at the leads here first. First up, bonds. Do they look good? Slight recovery over the last 24 hours, but realistically still down. And when the bond market flinches, you know, we we've got to be paying attention. So yes, the markets are green right now as as we're recording. There's some recovery here in metals as well, but they are still, you know, a bit shaky. And there's quite a lot of volume that's gone through these major bonds. You can also see bond spreads. They haven't exactly dropped yet. This is a slightly delayed chart. So we'll see whether that's moved a lot. But on the market side, VIX is still quite high. We went down to 20 and then as more information came out, we went back above 25. So the VIX is still quite uh volatile and the move index which is basically you know how much bond option volatility is coming through although that did get full a little bit of a fall over the last 24 hours it hasn't been crushed yet and we looked through this on the live stream generally speaking when the move index goes up we're looking for a big crush point on the move index to really show that maybe the S&P 500 has actually found some technical base at this point it's just the beginning of that so we'll see how this structure continues over the next 24 to 48 hours.
German markets still look pretty bad. They recovered back, but again, they were sold off the level of supply. So, this is exactly where you would expect the markets to find that kind of uh problem. And again, it's pretty consistent through them. I also noticed that the Cosby, which is the uh South Korean market, which just looks it's totally crazy this market like upund what is it 80% or something like that over 12 months. This thing shown volatility. It's rallied and it's continued to sell here. The markets closed at the time of this recording, but it has been pretty negative. So, this looks yeah, something we have to continue to follow along with the Nikkei this year. US markets, we didn't actually see the dollar break through 130. So, it suggests that that there's not total fear yet. Uh so, we'll we'll see what that is. It's continuing to be a very important chart. And gold managed to recover off that demand on the left hand side. So effectively this is where we see a lot of demand structure base. We have a 50. We obviously have on the weekly so 50 moving average similar to the S&P and we have a lot of trade and transactions that previously went through here. So quite interesting structure. I posted over on X on our account though the big issue which is at the moment that this 20 moving average on the 2-hour has continued to hold gold back and we just hit it again and you can see here a bit of pressure start to break through that get through a higher high that could be a supporting force for gold but both gold and silver have been coming down extremely fast and generally you know our thought process is you can see here kind of still hopping around that zone is to stop a freight train take some structure structure. So, we're looking for structure and again that will unfold hopefully over the next couple of days.
In terms of oil, it's not just the close oil price, it's the future oil price. Notice that it did fall down. So, the markets really did start to react to the idea that $6 cheaper a barrel now in February. And that's basically saying that they believe there could be a end or at least some kind of resolution here to to the geopolitical conflict. This is what the market believes. You know, your opinion is obviously totally different, but that's what the market's doing here when it prices out oil futures. And remember, it's something we do here uniquely that most other people don't show you guys, which is to look at the forward forward contracts. Very important. Semiconductors, the backbone of the US market, continues to hold for now. Nvidia 170 continues to hold for now. And Chinese markets, although they dropped the key 25,000 level, they just managed to recover back. But notice from a technical side, we've got a low, lower high, lower low, don't have a higher high that's going to be up to 26,000 and we are still underneath or around that key level. So you can kind of see how they all synergize together guys 6600 24,000 on the NASDAQ this one on the HSI etc. So markets that look a little bit better. Uh you can see here that we have the Ethereum market. It's actually doing okay. But once we break down smaller time frames and sorry if you hear the clicking today I'm I'm just traveling. But basically uh this market here you can see that it's a very very critical level. Uh Ethereum itself has basically found uh this level and this is around that heavily traded zone and similar to Bitcoin. So what happened is we basically instantly rallied to a bunch of resistance off that truth social post. Now we find ourselves still struggling around that area. Break up. that's kind of a good sign towards the potential of a bid coming in here from Wall Street and that that is going to be, you know, something that of course the bulls are going to look at. But for the bears, they're going to say, well, can can this level hold? And if it does, do we get a lower low? If we do, that's going to be pretty bad because of course then we're really breaking down. NASDAQ would be broken down. HSI would be broken down. Uh we've got the S&P would also be breaking down. And then if bonds and the move index keeps going up, you can see how it can all impact each other.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, then remember to subscribe. Hit that bell icon. Thank you so much for your comments down below. Interested to hear your opinion. What is your favorite chart that you're watching right now? Let us know in the comments down below. We'll check it out. And if you want one of my favorite charts to be watching over the next couple of months, make sure to sign up for our newsletter. Pin comment down below. Totally free to do so. I've got one coming out on Wednesday. It'll be coming back. It's coming back, guys. It's going to be really awesome. Um whole new relaunch and everything. So, uh, that's our our kind of like little chart to to say thanks very much, and I think you guys will enjoy that one. So, it's just something that, you know, again, it's probably, you know, people can see it, but I don't think enough people are talking about it. All right, thanks so much, guys. Catch you for now. Bye-bye.