Transcription
Yes. Yes. Because we fought the war, not the Swiss. No, we denounce. [Laughter] You remain neutral. Yes. In appearance. In appearance. Yes. In appearance. Afterwards, they take a little missile here or even a little missile there. Yes. Yes. It's like we're taking sides, but come put your money here. It's a bit like the good, of course, no need to specify that I I do not agree with these mentalities, but but I wasn't even there, you know. Well, so, there are people here. Great. Hello. Hello. Ah, yes, there are people here, [ __ ] So, if anyone wants to start, who has a question, we are we are here, we are present to answer it. Can you hear me? How's it going? Yes, very well, perfect. It's Raphaël. It's Raphaël. I'm talking to Tr privately and that's it. It's the first time I'm opening the group, huh. Hello. Hello. Hello. Hello. Hello. I'll listen a bit and if I have questions. Yes. Well, listen, the voice message I sent you in our Yes, I'll do that right away. Yes, it's it's more important for for your question. And uh and just before you go listen to it, so, you pause the radio, you just arrived. Uh well, again, we are a community, so we trust each other, but, you know, don't forget, like everyone else, that we don't know each other, so don't say anything publicly like that, if ever, you know, we live in a crazy world where people get kidnapped, fingers cut off, so don't let that happen to you, thank you very much, thank you very much everyone, and if it's recorded, I've started the recording of the radio, so it will be replayed in the appropriate room. Likewise, many of you show your faces in your profile pictures, uh that's also not very compliant in terms of security. Afterwards, you do what you want. Yes. You have to, it's true that you have to know that there are a few of them, they are they are they are experts and now there are even uh well, very simple AI software to use, or just with a photo, the thing scans everything on Google, the whole internet, and manages to find Instagram accounts, Facebook accounts of people, and then, well, of course, it gives the name and other things, and that's the open door to what follows. So, does anyone have a small question for us? It's quite sad. Yes. Hello Ari. Hello everyone. Hello. Uh yes, Atri, I'm one of the people who played the correction this summer. Uh I had a question about Uni because I had bought back and sold it as you had, I followed everything, so I had bought back at 9 and I had another account where I had bought back at 11. I had the opportunity yesterday to sell at 10, I didn't do it because I was expecting it to go higher. Uh now, I think you'll give more calls later for those who played the correction this summer. I I don't doubt it. Uh it's just to know if, in case it goes up again, what do we do? It goes up to 10, 11, do we sell a part, 15, 30%, or do we wait even longer, as we were aiming for 22 at one point? Uh, there you go. Yes. Uh no, well, there are there are key levels. Uh there are key levels. There is data that is going to arrive. And uh well, we already see on Uni, obviously, I don't know if you've looked at YouTube a bit today, but I think so, since it's a holiday in France, you're a bit busy. Uh well, there are, well, a lot of people are talking about it because it's a good pump, so it attracts attention. There are already a lot of people opening longs, opening shorts. So the data changes as we go. yesterday. Well, yesterday we had identified precisely these clusters of longs and shorts, and in fact, well, the short clusters are reaching exhaustion really at the level of 760, 770, and given the mass that we are, because we must remember that the community, before group 3, we represented almost around 20 million euros all together. Uh now we are at, we are at much more, so I gave a slightly lower target to be sure that everyone gets out at once. And there was the news just after. That's it, I went to bed and there was the news, so the pump continued. So now it's simple, it's if Uni really goes back above 10.3, as it did, it did almost yesterday. Uh well, the expected target now is higher. It will be directly around uh 1280, 13.5. So, no, if it goes back to 10 bucks, it's to go a bit higher to grab more uh small liquidity and especially the high point of last August 13th. So, so, no, if it goes back to 10 bucks, don't sell at 10 bucks directly. In any case, I wouldn't do that, that's for sure. Now, the most probable scenario, as we have, how to say, identified it in the report from Monday morning, is, and I really want it to happen, is that we really touch 97,000 by tomorrow. That would be cool to go higher. So if we do that, well, Uni, you're sure it will go back to the control point. Currently, the control point on Uni is in a range from 560 to 655. That's the control point, the most traded point, the most defended point, and also where the biggest long clusters are, which end at 565, 570, hence the isolated zone. But in fact, what will happen is that all those who are still on it and who haven't sold, well, it's not now that you should do it. You should wait a little bit, and those who have sold, there will be two options. Either there is the expected retracement up to these zones or slightly higher, and we rebalance the cash on Uni, or if it goes higher, we reallocate elsewhere. So, those will be the two options. Tr, can you hear me very well? Can you hear me because you're not you're not alone? Uh, I've been holding Uni since 2021 or 2022, the old bull run. And if you want a long-term investor view, I feel like this is very, very good. I see the volumes increasing after a long period of accumulation, and then the OBV going up. I see it well. Where do you see it going during this bull run? If, let's say, if we finally have a bull run, a halving season in February, March. Uh, well, first of all, I hope you've been holding it since 2022 because 2021 would make you perhaps quite high. I was I was I was I was among those people. I must have bought it in 2020, something like that, you know. I accumulated, accumulated, accumulated, but I was among those people who had their first bull run and found themselves at the top and holding, and not losing everything, because you never lose as long as you don't sell. But yes, I'm one of those people who multiplied by four or five in the old bull run and didn't sell. Yes. Ah, I understand. Well, that happens to a lot of people. Well, listen, how far it can go, it's always difficult to say because we don't know. What we have in front of us is a token that, well, if we take it chronologically, it had a nice bullish extension, it retraced like everyone else during the bear market, and what we must recognize, and where we need to zoom out a bit from its chart, and the weekly timeline is great for that, is that since May 2022, it's been in an accumulation range. It's a big range, from 360 to 19 dollars, it's really a big range, it hasn't broken out yet, and well, we follow portfolios, you've seen it in the group, we follow portfolios that have a lot of Uni, big whales that hold 15 to 25% of all circulating tokens, who don't sell and only buy. We have a token with financial data that, well, Q3 data just came out, despite a market correction, the best financial data it has ever had in terms of trading volume, in terms of money generated, and so on. It remains the leader of its narrative, which is a narrative that makes a lot of money and works very well. It's decentralized finance, isn't it? Yes. Yes. Decentralized finance. Yes, of course. So, so there you go. And it's also a protocol that, let's be honest, when there are things like early October manipulation on centralized exchanges, certain tokens that make the whole market crash, well, it revives interest in DEXes a bit, that should be noted. But no, it has everything it needs, honestly, it really has everything it needs. Uh, me, again, it depends on many things. The strength of a bull run, you know, it depends above all on the liquidity that enters. We already know that there won't be as much liquidity created as there was in 2021. However, there is a fact that counterbalances this, which is that in 2021, there was a lot of liquidity in the system thanks to the Fed and others, but there were far fewer institutional players in the crypto market. So the two can balance each other out in the sense that before there was a lot of money but not enough players in the crypto market. So you can have a lot of money, if it doesn't come in, well, it's useless. However, you can have less money overall, but institutions that are much more present and that will inject a lot more capital into this market. So, at the moment, I'd say all hypotheses are open. Unfortunately, my answer will remain very vague because of what I just told you. But, for sure, I wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't be against that option. There you go. But we'll sell a part before, I assure you, at least. Yes, I think that, you know, around February, at 26, that wouldn't shock me. Hm hm. Me neither. You, and even, does that ring a bell? I read a book a long time ago, because I'm 62 years old. I read a book, it was Stein Vanstein. Does that ring a bell? No. He was talking, you know, about curves like this, it's technical analysis, right? You're more of a fundamentalist, I think. And he was talking about curves like this that take a long time to start, and then all of a sudden, the curve does like in March, and in March 2024 or December 2024 too, it makes jumps like a high jumper preparing to jump. You see what I mean? The volumes increase after a long time, and that generally smells very good. Yes. What was the name of the book you said? I'll look it up, it's Stein Vanstein, I'll write it down for you, it was called Ah, I don't remember the book, but the guy is very well known. It was at the very beginning of technical analysis, about twenty years ago. I'll write it down for you. Yes, put it in the chat of the voice channel. In the chat, yes, I'll put it, I'll put it. Well, I'll stop talking for a bit, huh. Thank you very much, hello, I don't know, can you hear me? Yes, yes, very well. Well, hello everyone. In fact, I'd like to ask you a small question regarding Ethereum. In your opinion, what would be a good entry price for the medium to long term? Because honestly, you said in the discussion that it would be interesting to deploy some cash to buy, but as we're in a bit of uncertainty, either it goes up or it goes down. I don't find it sexy to buy Ethereum at 3000, at over 3000 dollars. So my question is, is there a chance, in your opinion, that it will go down to less than 1000 dollars in the next 6 months? to reload in that zone at, at how much did you say, less than 2000 dollars? Well, again, I don't trade the market, so I can't tell you yes or no, but with the data we have, one scenario is much more probable than another, and so that's the one we'll play. I was just discussing it with Raphaël just before. I'm going to put a small image for you. Just a moment, I need to get it. A few seconds. Here. So, I'm going to put it in the voice channel chat. It might not mean anything to you, but I'll explain what it is. Basically, what we have at the moment to define a kind of price corridor, especially for ETH and then for Bitcoin. So, it's definitely the cyclicality, it's definitely the clusters, we know that, there are many more higher up. But the options market is also a market that allows us to see the bets being placed on ETH in particular. And yes, the devil's charts because it's it's difficult to understand. Basically, for those who don't know, a quick introduction to options. It's a new way to speculate on an asset, on the price of the asset, without actually owning it. So you can buy options by saying, well, by a future expiration date, you'll take a contract saying, for me, I bet that Ethereum will pass, for example, 4000 dollars by 11/30/2025, and so you'll buy contracts on this bet, and in fact, you won't buy Ethereum directly, you'll speculate on the price, and if the price reaches the price you bet on by the defined date, then you'll have the right, but not the obligation, to acquire the asset in question. So, of course, if you win, you'll acquire it to sell it and thus make a profit. And if not, you won't buy it. But in return, you will have paid the other party who makes this contract with you, what is called a premium, that is, simply a kind of contribution, like an insurance premium, to keep the contract alive for its entire duration. So, if you will, those who bet on options, it's not the price that plays against them, it's time. Because they generally bet on a short duration, and the price has to reach the target very quickly or at least within the timeframe, because the longer the contract they take, the more they will pay this insurance premium, and in the long run, it may not be beneficial for them. So, what's interesting is that, well, you know, there are ETFs being launched on Bitcoin, on Ethereum, and other cryptos. Yes. And I've put the BlackRock ETF there, which is EHA on TradingView. And what's interesting to see, wait, I think I hear someone talking at the same time as me. If an admin can mute them, that would be great. It's done, it's done, it's done. Cool. So, what's interesting is to see, generally, the options market is not for retail. It's not people like you and me who are on it. It's big, big institutions. And what's interesting is to see the bets they place in relation to the price. Because what also happens is that these big institutions, for example, that ETH will be worth 4000 bucks in two weeks, imagine, well, they also have the financial strength to push this market and buy Ethereum on the spot market, for example. And what's interesting is that when we look at the image I just sent you, we have four charts. We have four charts, and if you look at the top left of each chart, you have an expiration date. So the chart at the top left, you see the date is marked in English. We have the year, then the month, then the day. So it's for next November 14th. The one at the top right is November 21st, bottom left is December 19th, and bottom right is January 16th. And on this small graph, you have lines, how to say, green and red rectangles. That's the amount, the amount of options that were bought at a determined price. And on the left, you have not the price of Ethereum, but the current price of shares of the BlackRock ETF. And currently, the BlackRock ETF, I'll check my TradingView again to be sure. Uh, it's selling, yes, yes, yes, the share is selling for 26.98. And what's interesting, you can put your TradingView chart in double screen, that is, above Ethereum, the real price of Ethereum, below the price of the BlackRock ETF, which is called Shares. And you see that for a certain price of the ETF, well, ETH has another price. And so, if we make a comparison and look, for example, for December 19th, we are currently at 27 dollars per ETF share, and there is a massive, unanimous bet. There is a truly unanimous consensus. You can see the image at the bottom left that the ETF will no longer be at 27 dollars per share but at 35 dollars per share. And 35 dollars per share brings us back to the highest point of last August that we saw on ETH. So, in short, the big institutions that are betting on the value of ETH on December 19th are betting that ETH will be worth around 4005 to 4007 in a month. Okay. Whereas we have, in fact, I'm talking more about the long term, in your opinion, what's the reload zone for the long term, per month? Well, you've given me a 6-month window. Yes. 6 months to 2 years, let's say. 6 months to 2 years. Well, 6 months to 2 years. Well, now we're entering other considerations. I'd say in 6 months, you can still look at January 16th, we're at about 40 points, so we're even higher in plateau. Someone is talking at the same time. Yes, yes, yes, the admins can mute them because there are 150 of us, so just let them have it for 2 seconds. Now, after that, another question arises, it's again, depending on the bullish extension we make, the retracement, because you're telling me 2 years, so you're taking into account that there's a bear market and you're asking for the bottom of the next bear market. Indeed, indeed, if we can directly disconnect the people who don't mute their microphones, it's better to mute them and disconnect them so they learn, because it's good, it's good, I've muted everyone, I've muted five people, thank you very much. Go ahead. Yes, it's a bit, it's a bit annoying. So, if you ask me for the bottom of the next bear market, well, on that again, we're entering considerations that are precisely statistics, probabilities. You look at how much Bitcoin and the Alts retraced in a normal bear market, well, we're looking at about 80% for Bitcoin and between 80 and 95% for Alts. So again, we don't have the top of ETH, okay? But if we take zones that could be good zones in case of a bullish extension, I'm telling you something crazy, but if, for example, we have what we expect, our famous alt season, where ETH goes to 8000 dollars, for example, well, then you do your minus 80%, you're at 1900 dollars, of course. So that's a possibility. We can also have the possibility, and it's the one that, for now, I foresee, is that we have not a normal bear market, but a mega bear market, and by mega bear market, I think we can clearly scrape the bottom at around 800 dollars with a mega bear market, because then, with a mega bear market, you get -95% to -99% on all the alts directly. So, so you're very low, even on Ethereum. So, so we'll see the power of this bear market, we'll see its duration depending on the reaction of the central banks, but targets of 2000 dollars, yes, largely possible. There, I lost him. I have a small question. You were talking about the bear market. How do you think BTC will behave in such cases if we have a gigabear market? Yes. Uh, Bron, in fact, you've muted Bog, he's the one who asked the question. No, I didn't mute him, it wasn't me. No, it wasn't me who muted him. Ah, okay, okay. No, it was me, and he was making a lot of noise too. Ah, ah, yes, yes, it was just, yes, it's good, BG, you're unmuted, sorry. Okay. Yes, yes, yes, in fact, yes, I was saying that it coincides with the liquidity below 1000 dollars. So, yes, indeed, if it's a mega bear market like you say, I think there's a good chance we'll go below 1000 dollars to get the liquidity that's below, and that would be a blessing, honestly, to pray for that to happen, it's clear, because it would be a mega opportunity. Or, the house, so the person who asked the other question, can they repeat it? Yes, in fact, I was wondering, if we have a gigabear market, do you think, well, what's your opinion on the behavior of BTC, given that it can be considered a safe-haven asset? Do you think it will crash or not? Uh, yes, of course. Yes, yes. It's, well, there's the notion of a safe haven asset, but it remains a highly speculative asset at the very bottom of the risk assets. And so, it's, I won't say one of the first things we get rid of, but almost. There you go. So, it won't be spared. There will, there will necessarily be people at the end who will tell you, no, Bitcoin will never go down again, because if it does, it will crash like everyone else. And because, in fact, the problem is that, in fact, it depends on what kind of bear market you're dealing with. When you have a bear market like 2022, which is quite mild, quite soft, people are not in panic mode, and especially they are not in "we need money" mode. That's the main point. Now, the data we have shows that people have no more money, and what they will try to do, a bit like in 2007-2008, is to have savings. So they will sell their houses to have savings, liquidity to pay their bills. So we are no longer in a dynamic of "we want to speculate, we want to take our profits, etc., etc." It's "we need money." And so, if we have gold, well, even though gold is also very long-term, we'll sell it. If we have real estate, even though real estate prices go up over time, there's no choice, you have to sell. And in fact, banks, individuals will find themselves in this situation where they need to raise cash, and so no matter what asset they have on hand, they'll get rid of it. That's the concept of a bear market stemming from debt. So, so there you can have gold, Bitcoin, Nvidia, anything. It will crash very, very hard. Okay, thank you. But again, so for the world, pray that it doesn't happen, but for us, pray that it does happen, because to anticipate such a deluge, I can tell you that once the hurricane has passed and there's nothing left, taking positions there, you really have an entry, just incredible. It's the opportunity of a decade at least. Hello ATR, hello everyone. Hello. I wanted to ask a question related to that. From what I understood, you had predicted that for around 2026. Yes. Is it still the same timeline, or is it going to be rather, I don't know, before the end of the year, or at another time? Uh, for me, it's still 2026 that it's taking shape. Now, as you say, it's when? So, will we have a Q1 that will be bullish, make that famous parabola, and then crash in VTOP mode like we had in 2017? Will we build over 2026 a similar movement in double top with a first extension in Q1 2026 like in March 2021, then simply set a top in November like in 2021? We don't know that. Now, there can be all, in fact, that's the thing, there can be all the good news in the world in the short term, and all those we discuss on this group and the YouTube channel, namely the rate cuts, the reduction, potentially an acceleration of QE, and yet, and I'll make videos about it, not everything is going well. People are really digging into their deficits, they have less and less money. The real estate market is doing very, very badly in the United States. It will get worse following the FOMC committee's decision, because remember, we saw that they were going to stop QT, but there are 35 billion dollars in MBS coming each month, instead of buying back MBS and thus supporting the real estate market and especially mortgage rates. But in fact, they will switch this money to T-bills. So, between us, it's good because we've seen that the clientele for T-bills is more inclined to have cash and go to the crypto market than the clientele for MBS. So that's good for us. But what's not good is that in terms of mortgage rates in the United States, it's not going to go down. It's not going to go down, and maybe it will even increase. And so you have a current situation where people have no more money. We've said that. We've also seen it in videos, and it would be good, I think, for me to do a reminder, perhaps this week or next week, about it. There are too many sellers of houses and not enough buyers, and again, these are people who are selling not to buy another property, they are selling because they have no money left. They have no money left and they need to acquire money. And so, if you have a mortgage rate that is already huge in the States, almost 6%, I think even a bit more, that remains like that, or even increases, and there is no easing of access to mortgage credit, then buyers will not return to this market. And so this gap between buyers and sellers will potentially grow even more, with the prospect of a subprime repeat. That is, you have people who can no longer pay their houses, the banks seize them to sell them, but if no one wants to buy them, what happens? It's an asset that brings you nothing in accounting, and tomorrow, if the Fed doesn't intervene as it is doing now, well, you have a bank that might falter, fall like in 2007-2008, drag another one down, then another one, and then that's it, you have your bear market, it's there. So, and that won't be stopped, it will happen at some point, the question is when. You'll see it coming, well, not necessarily, we'll see the data, we'll see the data that will indeed deteriorate more and more, that's for sure. We'll also see other things that are already happening on gold and starting to happen on the stock market. That is, phases where people expose themselves even more. They start to say, great, with good news, a phase of price extension, euphoria, and all that we know about bull runs, and the starting point, well, it will be something that we can't really anticipate. It's a first bank that falls, but as soon as the first one falls, well, and not just any bank, and I think a nationally significant one. So, so, so at that point, we all get out of this market. Pardon? At that point, we all get out of the market. Ah, but at that point, we get out immediately, that's for sure. And and then you can take your 2007-2008 chart, you look at how the Fed intervened. They did, well, the concept we often look at in videos, the concept of a hard landing, that is, well, we cut rates, we stimulate monetary creation to the fullest, but good luck, it will take weeks, even months, before the market reacts upwards, despite all the stimulus they will put in place, because of panic, because of bankruptcies everywhere, and you have to wait. So, yes, indeed, that's why it's always a bit difficult to time the market, that we have price objectives in mind, but I'd say our positions, let's say, in March, we're up 150% on them. We're aiming for even higher highs because the data is good. There's a bank like that that collapses. That's the starting point. We get out, we sell everything, we drop anchor, and we stay, we stay fully in cash, and we watch. Okay? Because that's precisely what will trap many people, because they'll say, we went higher, everything is green, and it's a bank, it's okay, it's just one bank, we'll see how the Fed intervenes. But no, there will be one, 2, 3, 4, and then it's off. Starting point, and then you look at the charts, it's hyper fast, in 2 weeks, what can happen, it's very, very violent. Yes, I remember 2008 well, it was quite fast, it's quite clear. Question from Mick or Mike, before the end of the year, will the whales take their profits to benefit from it or not? To benefit from what? Well, to take profits, they will benefit from cryptos if they take profits before the end of the year, as is generally the case at the end of the year, people say that people take their profits for Christmas. He's asking that, he's asking that to know if they will take profits, to be able to benefit for Christmas and to be able to offer gifts at Christmas, basically. Yes, exactly what I just said. No. No. What happens is more of a fiscal issue than anything else. Behind all that we can say about Q3, things like that, there are countries like the United States where when
If you hold assets, you haven't sold them yet, so you haven't realized your loss or gain. You have latent losses or gains, and well, that's still part of the taxable base. There. So you find yourself with a theoretical gain that you haven't realized yet, and you carry it over into your accounting, and you'll still be taxed on it. So you see where the problem is. So they are still forced to sell a good portion of their assets to pay taxes with actually accumulated assets. And so that's the main mechanism that explains why they sell at the end of December. But but at the end of December, we'll protect ourselves against that too. And that's also why, very, very often, when January arrives, unless you have a Trump arriving at the White House and messing things up, January is ultra bullish because people momentarily exit the new accounting and fiscal year, and it starts again, we take positions again, and everything is bought back. Uh, these are people I've muted. You tell me in the general voice chat, and I'll unmute you if you want to ask a question orally. Yes. Hello AR. Ah, go ahead, go ahead, please. Hello. Yes, a question. At the beginning of the live, you said we might have less liquidity than in 2021, and with, for example, the half-dollars Donald Trump wants to give to every American, the end of the shutdown, the end of QT, the end of, well, the CTE of rates, the US Treasury's liquidity injection, ETFs. Do you think we won't end up with as much, or even more, liquidity than in 2021? That's really a question I can't answer. Uh, it's not that I don't want to answer, it's that I don't know. You see, if I had a statistic here with the number of funds present in 2021, what there is now, how much money they plan to allocate now, how much money they allocated back then, then I would have figures. But but there is the observation that, as I said before, there is less, if we take all the liquidity that has been printed in the world, of available money, if there were perhaps 1000 billion in 2021, there you go, in total, well, now there isn't 1000 billion, there's less because the stimulus is smaller. This was really an open bar in 2021, if I may say so. So there, there might be, I'm saying something stupid, but it's around perhaps 300 billion compared to 1000 billion. And if before there were only a third of actors in the crypto market, so out of 1000 billion, that made 100 billion, well, now perhaps they are a third. And so, well, you have a counterbalance where ultimately the money put into the crypto market is the same. You see the main point, and what demonstrates what I just told you, is that there is less liquidity than in 2021. Yet, well, you look at the crypto market as a whole, you don't have to go very far. You just go on TradingView and type in the total crypto market. Uh, well, we are at new highs, we are retracing, certainly, but in 2021, we were at 2.8 trillion dollars. Well, now we are at 3.4 trillion dollars, and we've been up to 4.3 trillion. So we are forced to admit that even if there is less money created than in 2021, there is more money put into the crypto market. So that balances out. Now, to tell you to what extent the money will flow in. Well, we can do exercises that are just poorly drawn. You take the channel, typically the ascending channel in which the total 1, 2, 3 is. You connect the midpoints and the peaks. Well, why not reach the upper zone. There. But after that, these are drawings to be taken with a grain of salt. Ultimately, we don't know much about it. All we know is that there is more and more adoption, more and more money being bet on it. That's all we want. So, so now, we pray that well, the money arrives en masse. Okay. Yes. After that, it was a rather general question and not easy to answer factually. So thank you for your answer. With pleasure. I have a small question to ask too. I'm listening. Uh, in your opinion, do you think there's a chance the US government will start buying Bitcoin? Do you think that could be a real catalyst for the rise? Uh, no, honestly, no. Honestly, no. It's a small extra hype. It's cool. But which group are you from? 1, 2, or 3? The 3. Okay. That's good. I would have scolded you if you were in group 1 or 2 because But then you can't know what I'm going to tell you. Uh, but in a live, we looked precisely at this famous law that must, that must, that must pass regarding the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, where the first disappointment was to say that, precisely, well, they would first build up the reserve with Bitcoin seized over the years already held by the government. So, understand by that, we won't buy it right away. And in this famous, I don't know what it's called, the Bitcoin Act or whatever. Uh, well, in fact, they clearly said we will re-evaluate as soon as this law passes, it hasn't passed yet, but as soon as it passes, they will re-evaluate the gold reserves in the accounting of banks, federal banks, because the ounce of gold is still valued at, I think, well, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's very low. It's $90, I think, per ounce of gold, whereas we have 4100 and some change. So when they do it, I don't know when they will do it, but it will be an exceptional catalyst for money creation because banks will have to print money to cover the difference. So in your accounting, you have an ounce of gold at $90, it's worth $4100. The US Treasury will simply re-evaluate its reserves, and you, central banks, well, you must create, print the equivalent of $4100 - $90. So you multiply these figures by all the billions in gold reserves they hold. And I think with the current price of gold, it creates, I don't know the figures anymore, so I'll give a huge range, but I think it was in the billions, it created almost 10 billion, I think, something like that. Anyway, and in the Bitcoin Act, it's stated that they will use this re-evaluation, and the money earned by the United States, to invest, but a sum, but it was, it was, it was derisory, it was per year, a few billion, less than 10 billion per year, so not much for an asset that weighs, weighs trillions and change, it's not much. It won't be a game changer, honestly. Okay, thank you for your answer. What will rather be a game changer is the fact that you have a huge number of jurisdictions that were against crypto and are still against it now, and they are changing their perspective. That's rather the paradigm shift that is important, because you have many actors who don't go into crypto, not because they don't believe in it, but precisely because creating an account on a broker is still illegal, there are still many obstacles, and giving access to this market, well, that's what's most important, and they are doing it now. There. Can you hear me? Yes. Ah, hello. Uh, I had two small questions. GR, I wanted to come back to the options you mentioned earlier. Uh, sorry, I didn't have time to intervene before. We see on one of the photos, one of the graphs, that for the end of November, I think it's November 21st, they expect the price at 25, whereas it's at 27. I just wanted to check if I understood correctly. And did you have any on-chain analyses or data that could confirm that or not from your side? Well, yes, well, indeed, regarding the, well, how I read options more, I read them this way. After all, it's my reading. It's worth what it's worth. But what I like to look at regarding options is when there is a consensus, that everyone really agrees, and if everyone agrees, then everyone will steer the price in the same direction. So when you look at the expiration for November 14th, December 19th, and January 16th, it's unanimous, it's higher. On November 21st, there is a battle at the moment. There is a battle of some, indeed, who are taking puts and who believe that it will go from $27 per ETF share to $25, and another part who predicts that, precisely, no, it will go from $27 to $32. So there is a fight, and whoever says there is a fight, and you have the, well, it's not a 50/50 ratio, there are a bit more who believe it will go lower. So they will fight to push the price up on one side and down on the other. So on that, we don't know. On that, we don't really know. What interests me is really looking at the time periods in which, well, you see, for example, December 19th, no one is betting on a decrease. It's not far away, no one is betting on a decrease, and on the other hand, the consensus to say it's at 35 points, it's there. So you have whales there who say, "Okay, we're going to move the price in the same direction, there won't be much of a battle," and that's more what I look at. Okay, thank you. And just one last question, it's more about the number of altcoins, it has nothing to do with it, but it's everywhere that it's exceeding 16,000, I think, or 20,000, that it's become completely crazy and that more and more are created every day. I saw when doing some research, well, etc., that the majority of liquidity is concentrated in the top 10, top 20, and that indeed there are tens of thousands of altcoins in the top 200, 500,000, etc., but that they represent about, I don't remember, 0.1% of the market liquidity. So we hear a lot that the increase in altcoins and cryptocurrencies means that it won't be like previous bull runs and that liquidity won't make everything pump, and that it's not like before because there are too many altcoins, so even strong tokens won't rise as much as before, but if everything is concentrated in the top 10, top 20 tokens, are we really concerned by this increase in the number of tokens, or I don't know what you think. Yes. Well, yes, it's true that I saw that once, and it made me laugh when I heard the guy talking about it, the YouTuber, saying that because there were many more altcoins, it had diluted, and we would never see another bull run. That's an incredible absurdity. The statistics clearly show that the cryptocurrencies that attract the most liquidity are indeed those that are most capitalized. So, in the common mind, having, for example, an XRP that did a 6x, it wasn't possible because it was already worth billions and billions. Having a Solana perform strongly, well, it wasn't possible because it's already heavily capitalized. And there's always this very retail aspect of wanting to do 100x, saying, "Ah, but if a crypto has a market cap of 10 million euros, then doing a 100x means it goes to 1 billion, great, that's it, we're going for it." When in fact, not at all, the statistics show that indeed the top 100 absorbs all the liquidity, really all of it. So if you go into a bull run on a cryptocurrency, indeed, without looking at the data, that's the reasoning I'll give you. If you go randomly, then you'd better go for the top 20. You know statistically they are the ones who capture liquidity. Don't bother, no project analysis, top 20, and that's it. Of course, that's the basis of the reasoning. Now, there are cryptocurrencies that, before being in the top 20, before being in the top 100, well, they are in the top 1000, in the top 2000 because they are nascent. We saw, for example, SPK, imagine, well, there are cryptocurrencies like that that you have to catch because they have such enormous data that they will take the place of cryptocurrencies that are in the top 100. So you will have an infinitesimal part of cryptocurrencies outside the top 100, even the top 200, that will really perform. And conversely, well, you will have a majority of cryptocurrencies in the top 50, top 100 that will perform compared to others. Because now there are several things that, how to say, that are important. And I was talking about it at the time when I was asked if ETH would perform, when it was April 2025 and it was at $1500. For me, I said that at the time, in any case, there were data on Ethereum, it wasn't great. In terms of blockchain speed, in terms of fees, its competitors like Sui or others are clearly gaining the upper hand over ETH in terms of product offered to customers. There. But I said that for me, ETH would also perform. To what extent? We don't know, because it has two main arguments. There's the historical argument of saying, "Well, it was one of the first cryptos created. So there's trust, it has already survived two bear markets. So the team is still solid. So there's investor confidence." But there's especially the aspect, and which is quite significant, and you'll understand why this also explains why the top 100 performs better. There's this capitalization aspect of saying that you have a crypto that is the second largest capitalized with hundreds of billions. If you are an institution, for example, JP Morgan or others, who manage hundreds, or even for some, thousands of billions of dollars, who say, "Our crypto budget, we'll allocate 30 billion." Can they really get in and enter SPK? Not at all, because they won't bother with 600 lines at 100 million. They will look for large cryptos on which there is necessarily, well, the good cap, and ETH, well, it will necessarily be the first choice because of its very high market cap, which reduces risk. They can take large orders in billions, they can buy directly, they can sell immediately, great. And then, well, they will go down gently and remain in these crypto ranges that are capitalized, I would say, at a minimum of 500-600 million, because precisely there's this liquidity aspect, it's liquid, you can enter and exit, there's a daily trading volume that is quite high to be able to seize large orders. And these big players, I know some in real life, so I can tell you, they look at that a lot too. So there. But thank you very much for your answers, Trade. Go ahead with questions, guys, if you have any. If there's anyone I need to unmute, do it in writing because I've muted so many people that. Yeah, I wanted to, I had a small question that came to mind. Uh, can you hear me? Yes, I'm not sure. Or, yes, go ahead. Yes. Okay, good. Yes. Uh, so in the case of a super bear market, debt, and all that, which is likely to happen, but you never know with the market. I'd like to know, in fact, the impact it could have in Europe, in France, and particularly on all companies that can be valued, whether it's on the CAC 40 or even below, on the Mid-Cap SBF 120, etc. Could it have a big impact on the market and potentially slow down, let's say, all the progress for companies or everything they had planned to do in 2026 or 2027 in terms of investment forecasts, etc.? I'll let you look at the state of the CAC 40 during the subprime crisis. Yes. Okay. There. It's the same thing. Okay. Yes. Okay. We live in a world where they are, they are, they are all these big banking institutions are connected to each other, so to each other. So it will clearly affect everyone. Yes. Okay, that's what I was afraid of. That's good. That's good. Raphaël, you wanted to speak, you had a question off the top of your head. However, I'd like to share a thought with you if you'd like. Go ahead, we're listening. So, I have a friend, I have a friend who did an internship in options, and it was he who led me to do a bit of options. That's right, it's nice. And so, as AR said before, on margin, we get caught, liquidated on the price. In options, we get taken out by time. And I have the impression, my friend told me, all professionals do practically only options. Catraï will have to confirm or not, and I have the impression that there are more and more retail, like most of us, I think, who do options, because if we compare the 2021 bull run with the bull run we're experiencing now, in 2021 it went up very sharply and then it went down, there were -35% -45%, it went down very sharply, whereas now we see declines that are endless and are only 20% declines. So I have the impression that they are looking more to trap the option traders because there are more and more of them. What do you think, Tril? Strong, in any case, on Bitcoin. Yes. And ETH too. But it is indeed a, after all, it's, well, let's make a bad pun, it's an option, of course. However, there are several things. We had, we had, let's not lie, even in the 2021 bull run, if we look at how things happened, the 2021 bull run, we had extensions that were so enormous because, again, there was a monetary policy that served that purpose. Don't forget either that, how to say, for example, if we take these corrections that lasted, for example, in 2024 between March and September, 6 months, between January and then and then April, well, 4 months, these are not, I would have agreed with you 100% if there hadn't been an explanation, so to speak, for these fears. In fact, these corrections were also initiated, and that's why I say that 2025 is really a very difficult year. It's because we really have all the things, we really have all the things that create market uncertainty, and necessarily, well, with each uncertainty, people panic, they remove the riskiest lines from their portfolios, which are crypto, because we are on the market, yes, we must be aware, the riskiest in the world. And so that leaves uncertainty. Whereas post-Covid, you had Covid, uncertainty for a few weeks, and then all the states saying the same thing. We won't, we won't paraphrase Macron, but "whatever the cost," and "we'll do whatever it takes." Even if it means creating all the problems for the future, it's okay, we'll think about it tomorrow. So that gives a market that is really different. If you look, and wait, I'll just zoom in on my chart. If you look at 2017, before the last parabolic phase which lasted a few weeks, well, you can even look at Bitcoin, it's the same thing. Up, down, up, down, up, down, with sometimes, I have the chart here, but if you take, for example, in just 3 weeks on Bitcoin, a correction, we erase, we erase 5-4 months of gains. So we had things that were similar until the moment when this parabola really started to take off, at a time when no one thought it would take off, and everyone was saying the same thing as now, "we're going to crash." We had this famous parabolic phase all of a sudden, but we had approximately the same market because it was different. Monetary policies were much less so than now, uncertainties were emerging. Trump was also causing trouble with China and tariffs at that time, for those who remember. Well, there you go, we were almost copy-pasted, and on a market that, well, it moved faster too, because well, in 2017, it took less money to make it pump, let's not lie, 2017 Bitcoin was not like now. But we did have, indeed, these kinds of step-by-step increases like this, with altcoins lagging behind, staying behind. Well, not many altcoins at that time, but lagging behind and then following really at the end. So, yes, but there is indeed also, as you say, this options market, but on crypto, it's not huge. It's really not huge, for that matter. And what we see, however, because I'm backing it up with certain data to make statistics for the future, is that we have rather large movements in crypto at the options level a few days before the options expire. You see that a few days before, it wakes up, and a move is initiated to reach a capitulation price that is also enormous on options. And so there, yes, you see it sometimes, you see it. That's where they're looking for the max pain price. Yes. Among other things. And often they coincide with liquidation closures. So it allows to kill two birds with one stone, and that's exactly what you're saying. And I wonder if we're not on the verge of a big bullish move like in 2021, or not comparable, but something significant. That's what we want. We're there. That's what we're betting on. Yes. Uh, Trade, there's a question from Rafa 69 asking, "Can we expect 15-20% for cryptos like on a?" Yes, of course, it's possible. Another question from Starboy. "During a rapid and unexpected movement like last night on a, do you advise configuring a trailing stop with what delta in that case?" Well, that's not something I'm going to tell you. I'll tell you in the lounge if it's something that's planned. For now, it's not planned. So I'm not going to tell you to do something that's not in the program. Question from Seb. "With the sale of Uni, do we keep USDC warm?" Yes, because following the sale of Uni, wouldn't it be opportune to position ourselves now? No, no, because again, the scenario we expect is really the scenario of 97-98 there. So no, and the price, the price in daily terms seems to be drawing that on Bitcoin. I say seems because the American session has just opened, so we'll see what happens. Moreover, generally, when it opens and it's a downward movement that starts, it doesn't end downward. So we'll wait, but in any case, we'll just look at the daily chart on Bitcoin. We started the week by taking liquidity a bit higher. We're filling the imbalances, and then on Tuesday, we're turning around a bit. Frankly, it would be really, really strange if we left the 97-98 alone. So since that's what we expect, well, I want to tell you, we are positioned with maximum cash. We have 12.5% of the portfolio outside, in stablecoins. There's no need to want to make decisions, 12.5% is not a lot. If it goes up, great. If it goes down, you'll be very happy to have this 12%. So we're waiting. Hello everyone. Hi. Hi. Uh, so if we understood correctly, it's still very likely that we'll reach 97-98, there's still a good chance that we'll reach a bottom or not, do you think? So again, I have to specify it every time because it's recorded because you're here, you're almost 200. Listen to what I'm saying. The beauty of financial markets, and what's annoying at the same time, is that everything is fluid. Everything is fluid day by day, according to the news, according to the positions that open, and so on and so forth. So for the moment, and that's why we produce weekly reports to give you a weekly outlook, because I often said to groups 1 and 2, we are in a boat, we are in a boat, we are on the Titanic, it's foggy, and we can see 50 meters ahead. We can see 50 meters ahead, and what's further than 50 meters, we can't see it. So if the road ahead is clear for 50 meters, well, we continue. If we see a potential iceberg, we shift the thing, and that's all we do, ultimately. So for the week, for us, it's clearly 80-97-98 that are targeted. Okay. And we'll see what happens once we reach them. Now, the, how to say it, this is the short term. In the medium term, there's a much higher probability of taking off, but in the short term, again, there are always these considerations of large liquidity to be sought, of prices that must be defended. We've seen that quite a bit over the past week. So the big things to take are really at the level of 98-97. It's also a price that has been accumulated by long-term investors, well, for a very long time, since 2024, so a little more than a year. So we expect this price to be clearly defended. There. Now, can we wick down to 92, 93, 94, fill the imbalance at 89, 88? We know with the crypto market, nothing is impossible, but that we are now starting a bearish structure, a bear market, to use the words that everyone is waiting for, that remains quite improbable. There. Okay, thank you for the answer. Of the same I'm sorry, I'm just extending my answer necessarily to what people might be asking. Uh, yes, well, consequently, if we expect 97, why don't we sell our cryptos now, even at a loss, to potentially buy back at -15% -20%? Uh, well, there's the consideration of saying that, well, first of all, there are many members of group 3 who arrived, who had the good fortune and timing to be almost full cash, to have a lot of cash, and to take positions that are just magnificent, who are therefore calm in their minds. And there are others who, well, are at a latent loss, because, necessarily, we entered at prices that were higher than what we have now, and we wait, when we make the decision, based on, indeed, we put our stop losses, and even if we're at -40%, I'm saying something stupid, we sell at -40%, because if we can still buy back at -20% below, we'll still optimize, even if we take our losses. There's always this unknown of saying, "Okay, if Bitcoin drops by x% now, are we sure that cryptocurrencies will dip as much?" Because sometimes Bitcoin dips, and altcoins dip very little, other times they dip very hard. That's also linked to their liquidation closures. That will be nice. And and so, what we look at, and what I look at a lot, is also dominance. I'm comfortable at home. Okay. Well, he's comfortable. Yes, we can hear you. That's great, but mute yourself. Yes. So, I want to tell you, when you see Bitcoin rising like now for a few days with a falling dominance, a sign that, precisely, well, despite the rise, more money is entering altcoins than Bitcoin. That when it falls, as it is falling now, it's the same circulation, there isn't really, in the very short term, money leaving altcoins to go to Bitcoin. We can't assume with 100% certainty that a 4% dip in Bitcoin will give us a -20% dip in altcoins. You see, we can't be sure, because as soon as, and I'll finish with this, as soon as I tell you, "Listen, I'm selling to optimize," and you want to take the same deal, if you sell and the thing doesn't correct enough, we don't optimize the position, it's a nightmare. No, Adrien, can you mute yourself, please? Mute Adrien, please. I can't find him. Thank you. Thank you. So, so there you go. So we'll see. But in any case, for now, that's why, precisely, we don't just say, "Okay, let's set the stop losses very tight and expect a 20% correction in altcoins when we don't even know if it will happen." So, and especially once we reach that zone, we don't know if there will be an extremely strong rebound because we see it, altcoins are coming out one after another, making significant retracement movements. There's also this lottery where we know it has to happen, it's starting to happen, and I can assure you that if we say we're doing it, and the opposite happens after waiting so long, I'm talking especially for groups 1 and 2 who are waiting at a loss, then you'll destroy morale. You'll destroy morale in every way, and that's why extreme caution is needed. There. Thank you. Thank you to TR for your answer. It's cool. But it's true that when we also look at market sentiment, it's been quite negative for a good while in general. And so it's true that all this puts more and more pressure for a possible rise, but as you said, it remains quite unpredictable. And what a friend of mine who has been in crypto for a very, very long time said is that it's true that the real whales and those who are really in the market, really well in it, they have time and money, because people like us don't necessarily have that time and money, and so this pressure, even if it continues to increase little by little, and market sentiment becomes more and more negative, well, they can still make us wait. as long as they want, so to speak. Yes, that's what's not easy. Well, thank you. You're welcome. With great pleasure. Bye Trade. Bye. Bye. Uh, I have a small question from earlier, why is it
It was cut. Uh, if this retracement, I played, I played the sale of the Unis, like you. If it doesn't retrace below our purchase prices, should we reload on Ave or give up? What do we do? Uh, we'll see, we'll see. In any case, what is important, and again, in the answers I give you, I always make little digressions because there are other underlying questions that arise once you ask yours. So I give a comprehensive answer to respond to everyone at once. Uh, the Uni, well, we'll gently wait for its little retracement. It's starting, it's starting to arrive, so we hope it will continue. If it goes down, if it goes down quite low, I'll buy some more anyway. So I'll tell you that I'm doing it. And if not, it's not a big deal. There are always other cryptos in our portfolio. They won't all take off at the same time. That's also why, and this is another question, but that's also why we take a few narratives because generally you see a narrative that pumps with all the cryptos in it, that pumps at the same time, and then you have a kind of rotation of narratives. So, in short, all that to say that they won't pump at the same time. We know we only have good cryptos. So if Uni doesn't retrace as much as we'd like and continues its rise, all those who are still in it will say "great" because they will be unlocked and make gains in turn. And for us who have freed up cash, we will reallocate it elsewhere. It could be on Ave, it could be on U8, it could be on C sui. We'll see, we'll see at that time. As I always say, and I'll repeat it to you every time, we see 50 meters ahead. So I don't know, maybe in a week, we'll see Uni pumping too hard. We won't get into it. There's a mega bullish news, for example, on AV, and then we'll reallocate to AV. We'll see, we'll see. In any case, in any case, this is a piece of advice I can give you because I see it on Discord, it has happened many, many, many times, especially once with SPK. Don't fall in love with a crypto because you've made gains with it, because when SPK went up x2 in 2 days, it took 3 months for things to calm down on Discord with SPK. Everyone was changing their name to SPK if it... A religion had literally been born around SPK. So we don't care, we take our gains. If it goes elsewhere, there will always be money to be made. And I have a small question. I remember a Kim Jong Park. Me too. We all remember. Fucking? Yeah, we can hear you. Yeah. Yeah. Earlier, you said we were supposed to have 12.5% of the portfolio in stablecoins, because of Uni. But no, not all of it. No, it can be 25%. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. No, because some people said they sold half, etc., so that's why. Okay, got it. Okay, thanks. You're welcome. Hello team. Can WW, I'll give you the chart back. Yeah, I'm just looking for it. Excuse me. Yeah, I had a small question. So if you can hear me, you can answer. Yes, yes. Okay. Great. So, it was a question especially for Atrid because I'm going to pass the MF soon, in 6 months to a year. The CF, I wanted to know, by chance, because it's a bit related to all of this. I wanted to know, Trit, if you knew about the CMT, the diploma. I'll tell you right away. And what do you think of the Chartered Market Technician? Have you ever heard of it? Is it any good? Uh, well, no, I haven't heard of it, but given the name, it's a technical analysis diploma, basically. Yeah, that's it. Okay. No, I haven't heard of it. Okay. Okay. No, just to get your opinion on it. Is it recent that they offer it? Hm. Well, I don't know, I looked a bit into technical analysis diplomas, especially for the... it could be very interesting because I know we have the CFA, but it's heavier, more generalist. Hm. And it's still 300 hours, but it's more about fundamentals, so that's why the CMT could be more interesting. Yeah. And so, yeah. No, I wanted to get your opinion on it. In any case, for all your ideas regarding the 98,000, etc., 95,000, I agree with you because we have a lot of orders. I'm on TradingView right now, the CVD is going down, so I think your theory can hold that we're going down. Hm hm. But yeah. It was mainly about the CMT. If by chance you have time to look into it a bit, but I don't think you have much time. It would interest me since you are professionals in this field. Yes. It would be cool to have your opinion anyway. Yes, we could look into it, of course. No problem. Great. Thank you. You're welcome. Yes. A TR, can you hear me? Yes, I can hear you. You hear me? Yes, thank you. Can we talk a bit about Riot? If you want, I haven't followed the stock of this company too much, but or the miners, the miners in general. Yes, yes, go ahead. Apparently, they've picked up again, not so much because of the rise of BTC, but apparently because AI would use their computing power. Hm hm. Yeah, I have a bit of Riot too. Okay. And so, what's your question? No, I don't have any questions. It's just a general topic I wanted to bring up. Ah, okay. Okay, I see. Yeah, okay. Uh, well, no, I have to admit I haven't followed the issue, so unfortunately I can't. Okay. Yes, I prefer to stay silent if I don't know. So, I don't know. That's very honorable. I'm muting myself. Well, are there any questions? Could you put up a screen again? You've already put that up. Okay. I just have a quick question, I don't know if you can hear me. Yes. Uh, so yeah, it was about, I know the site wasn't, well, it was going to be corrected regarding the current cryptos and their stats. But even if the selling prices, the purchase prices aren't necessarily up to date. For example, now, knowing that we've sold a part of our Uni bags, are the long-term selling prices still valid or not? Will you put long-term selling prices back on the site or on Discord, or will we really be operating on calls like we had with Uni, where we react based on the current market and calls? That's just to get an idea to make a medium-to-long-term strategy and align myself with what you propose. Yeah. Uh, well, you need to know one thing, which is that the sales targets you see on the site are theoretical orders. They are theoretical orders. We can go higher, we might not reach them. I left Uni because, again, some people have it. Some people have it. And even if you go to the site, that's why you need to follow Discord as a priority because for those who follow Discord as a priority, there are two types of strategies that have emerged as choices for members. There's Altcoin, there's Bitcoin, and there's a mix of the two. So, naturally, if you go to the table and see the allocation, if you add up all the numbers in the allocation, it doesn't add up to 100% because there are two or even three possible types of strategies. So that's why you need to refer to what the Discord says regarding positions. That's the first thing. And, well, this is where, again, in the past, it caused a problem once, twice it caused problems. The prices, in fact, when I gave a sales target, even specifying that it was theoretical and that we were subject to market fluctuations and that we could go higher and also sell positions earlier, some people, because they saw, for example, Ave at $1600 for sale, thought "great, perfect," they were already calculating what they would buy with their x8, their new car, their house, whatever. That's not the reflex you should have. We know we're dealing with very good cryptos. We have prices in mind that are isolated with financial ratios that give price ranges. It's also with technical analysis because there are VGs, because there's liquidity taking, because there are Fibonacci extensions. In short, there can be many things. So, rely on the buying zones anyway. That's the first thing. The portfolio percentage allocation is also the most important. And then the sales targets. Well, you have to follow what's happening on Discord because the story is different for everyone. Just look at those who sold all their Unis, those who haven't yet. And so the table won't necessarily be super logical for someone who just joins, but because there are different scenarios that I can't put on the site. So, so yeah. I don't know if that answers your question well. Uh, yes, yes, I understand about the site completely, but it's true that by drawing Fibonacci lines as you said, or by calculating NVT, market cap to TVL ratios as you mentioned in one of your videos that I followed before joining the group, price to sales ratios, many ratios you discussed, it also gives more or less long-term targets, and it's true that, consequently, you make projections for the medium to long term on certain cryptos, like Uni for example, but also Ave. Yes. Yes. Well, it remains medium-term because, typically, if we take the ratios you've defined, even just for Ave, the fair price isn't at 100, it's more like 2400. We're much higher. Now, I've put, frankly, medium-term, let's be honest, but the trap to avoid, and I think everyone who's been in the crypto market for not too long, or even longer, you see what that trap is. The trap is to say, we have cycle targets where we don't sell anything until then, and by doing that, we always lose. We always lose. It's better to be able to take advantage of positions on corrections, sorry. We know they're coming. We know they statistically arrive at defined time periods, they arrive when certain mechanisms happen, well, related to liquidations, related to many things linked to on-chain data, for example. So it's much more interesting, and we're still experiencing it now, to take gains and targets that are really medium-term. What I call medium-term is a few weeks, or even a few months, and to rely on corrections to buy back lower, and so on. So yes, we'll necessarily have to make more positions, more trades in the year. I assure you, we'll never get to the point where we have to take one trade a day, two trades a day. Here, we're talking about, you see, we take positions, those who have been here since group 1, group 2, well, we bought these cryptos, we didn't make 1000 trades in weeks. We take positions and then we wait a few weeks, a few months. We take positions over the quarter, more or less. So, so yeah. But in any case, we'll be much more profitable by doing medium-term, by then reallocating capital and low returns to generate compound interest and reach the objective of 200% gain per year. So we'll be more profitable doing it that way. Okay. Yeah. Well, that's one of the reasons, or perhaps the main one, that led me to join the group, is that I couldn't manage intra-cycle corrections on my own. And so, well, I found myself holding a token for months before seeing any progress and being in a drawdown, and thus not being able to compound interest. But it was more in the sense of keeping in mind these medium-to-long-term notions for the allocations to use for each call you make. You see, for example, we said 25-50% to sell. Well, it's up to each person, but in my thinking, it's more to say, "Okay, is this a call where we sell everything and see what happens next, or do we keep it long-term and thus only a part?" I don't know if you understand, I'm having a bit of trouble explaining it. No, I'm struggling to see where you're going with this. Can I? Yes, of course. In fact, I think what you haven't grasped is that you make instant calls on Discord, and that's what will allow you to make your profits. Here, the call that happened on Uni, concretely, it was a call that wasn't a mandatory choice. Let's say there are times when he'll say you really need to sell. Ah, you don't hesitate, you sell. Here, clearly, he suggested playing a potential retracement. Now, if playing a potential retracement scared you, you could leave it as is and do a bit longer-term than those who played the retracement. In fact, that's it, and that's why here, well, you could decide to sell only 50% or 25% or nothing at all, or even everything, depending on what you had allocated. Because if you had to allocate your Unis at $11, you wouldn't sell Unis at $7.50 when you bought them at $11. And conversely, if you had bought Unis at $5 or less than $5, well, you had more interest in selling 100% of your bag, hoping to buy them back a bit cheaper to go even higher afterwards and make capital gains on capital gains. You're compounding interest. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I understand. Got it. Thank you very much. I'll take a question on the fly from TJ Crypto who says, "Hi ATR, welcome back to group 3. My question is as follows: I've seen the cryptos the community is positioned on. Why aren't you on Tao, Render, Hondo, or even Sui?" We are on Sui. Groups 1 and 2, some of them are still on Tao, because it's actually, I don't remember when it was, but there was, let me try to look at the chart. It was, yeah, in July, July 2025, when Bitcoin went from $119,000 to $112,000. For me, there were many reasons to think we were going to have a correction on BTC, and for me, it was really 50/50. So, a bit like yesterday on Uni, he says, "Well, I foresee this, I'm going to play this correction, so I'm taking my profits on such and such crypto, or at least I'm putting a stop loss on such and such crypto." Most of them, I'd say, I think a good 50% of the community did like me, and since I wasn't sure either, and it was a moment when we were still quite bullish, you have to realize we were at $120,000. Many of them didn't play this correction and didn't sell their Tao, for example. So, they still have it, they still have it. There was no sell call given because Tao is a very good crypto, and I believe it will continue to rise. But that's why you don't find it in the current positions, but others have it, and we had it, and given the recent movements, they don't regret having looked at it, I think. Now, Render, we got rid of Render because Render was the curse of the portfolio, and especially because Render is on a narrative, and it will be quite interesting to talk about. Thank you, TJ, for the question. So it's on a certain narrative of GPUs, computing power, and all that, where it's a category leader, as a fellow YouTuber likes to say. But there's always this notion, and it's very poorly mastered online, which is not simply to go into a narrative and say, "Okay, the narrative, well, we'll buy the first one that's the biggest." Here, there's an aspect that's quite important, and I think it will be a very good capital gain for this community, which is really to go into the companies' accounting, for those that have it, and really analyze if these companies are financially the best, or if other competitors that are smaller, that have emerged more recently, already have better tech, already have bigger profits with a lower market cap, and that's the case with ATH. ATH is a crypto we're positioned on, on which we've already made 80%, I think, 80-90%. We bought it, I think it was at 3 cents and some change, sold it at 6 cents in September, and bought it back at 4 cents. So, we made an upswing and reinvested the capital and the gains because ATH is a low-cap crypto compared to Render, but it outperforms Render in everything, in its technology, in its revenue. It generates as much revenue as its market cap, which is quite rare in crypto, you'll agree. It has top-tier clients, including its biggest client, which is Nvidia. We don't know the amount of their contract, but when you have a giant like Nvidia alongside a small crypto like this, well, that's already pretty good. And so, we said, well, we have a crypto that has been underperforming for a very long time, called Render. We have a competitor that is much smaller, that already makes more money than Render, that has mega metrics and has everything to perform. So, we switched, yeah, we switched, we took ATH, and honestly, we haven't regretted it because we waited, I think, only two weeks, and we made a good return on it. So, frankly, cool. But so, Tao, yes, a good part of the team is on it. Render, we got rid of it. Hondo, we had it, when was it? I think it was in the spring. But again, with the data available at the time, well, it was really floundering, and other cryptos had higher medium-term performance potential. So, we also removed it from the portfolio, and Sui, we're on it. So, so yeah. Personally, I was on Tao until very recently. When it went up to 530, I sold at a stop loss at 500-505 dollars because I knew we were going to have a retracement and I wanted to play it. I played it. I think some others did too, and for now, I think it was a good move to play it. Yeah, well, that's magnificent. Well played. Very good move. Nothing to say. Yo team, I have another small question for you, for the group, etc. So, I joined with group 3. I haven't seen yet if you use options as confirmation. That is to say, I imagine you follow the institutions and everything. I haven't seen it in the group. That's why I'm asking you the question. If you look at, well, all the zones with SKW, etc., the Delfin, all those things. So I just wanted to know if there was a derivatives product zone, or if it's really you, TR, who looks at it on your side. Yes, yes, it's me who looks at it on my side. What do you look at, if you don't mind? Ah, I put it in the chat. You didn't see it before? No, I didn't see it at all. Ah, okay. It's a site called, let me put the link. Well, the subscription is expensive. You go on TradingView or you go on other sites. I didn't see it at all, that's why. That's why I'm asking you the question. No, I only go to this site because it's the one that, well, because it's the one that aggregates everything, really everything, not just crypto, but also all the listed companies and others. So it's all-inclusive there. I prefer to go where it's complete. Okay. You put it in, wait, I'm going on the PC. You put it in the voice chat. Yeah. Discord. If you just go to the channel name, you see, there's a little chat bubble, you click on it and... But the subscription is expensive, though. In total, it's like 80 bucks for the subscription, I think. Okay, let me check. 80, 90 even, I think. Okay. Okay. And you have everything there. But what do you mainly look at, like what indicator? Well, I only look at Bitcoin and ETH. ETH for the direction of the altcoin market because if there are very bullish bets on ETH and not so much on Bitcoin, for me, it translates again. These are personal analyses. I don't have all the answers. So sometimes I can see things that aren't necessarily 100% accurate. But in the past, it has worked quite well. And I'll describe how I look at things. What was interesting, or what is interesting for me, is the options on Bitcoin and ETH to see if, for example, there are bets on the downside on both, or on the upside on both. And typically, when ETH started to perform really well and Bitcoin was calming down in July 2025, there were bets being made on the upside for ETH, and Bitcoin was stagnating. So, it was betting on a range for Bitcoin, and on Ethereum, it was betting higher, even much higher. And for me, that translated into a kind of effect where we consider that Bitcoin will calm down, but the altcoins will enter a momentum of outperformance, which is exactly what happened at that time. So, I like to look at that, and as I said before, when I look at just ETH or just Bitcoin, I like to see charts. These are my conditions, of course. I like to have a chart that shows me there's a real consensus. Everyone agrees that it's going to go lower, or it's going to go higher. And for me, that's a little extra check among the things I like to look at. Let's put it that way. Now, it's not because the options market is betting on something, tomorrow, it's not because the options market says it's going to go down, while everything else says it's going to go up, that I say, "No, no, because the big players are taking positions in options, it's necessarily going to go down." There are many times when they are wrong, of course. So, it remains a bet. Yeah, that's normal. That's normal. No, I just wanted to emphasize this point because you mentioned the site, you looked at Ethereum and Bitcoin, but what you're looking at is the SQ Delta 25, and you're also looking at the butterfly SQ2, or not at all? No, you don't care about that? No. No. And to be more precise, because I have to say, I don't look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, I look at the options taken on the major ETFs, which are Grayscale and BlackRock. Okay, precisely. Okay, there you go. So, so yeah, I prefer to look at what's happening in the traditional market, always, because that's where the most money is being bet directly. So, these are financial instruments that are available where the big players are, because the big players don't have their accounts on Bill Gates and company, most of them, to take these kinds of bets. They are still in the traditional market, and for them, it's more profitable to take calls or puts on, typically, the major ETFs in the market. Okay. So, I'm sorry, I'm asking 400 questions, I must be annoying. That's what we're here for. Do you look at implied volatility too, or not at all? We look at it in the priority group. It's not me who looks at it, because we are a team of 7 or 8. I can't look at everything all the time, unfortunately, but we do look at it. Yes, we take it into account. Okay. Okay. Well, thank you. With pleasure. With pleasure. Some people might be thinking, "What are they talking about?" We'll get to it, we'll do recaps, we'll see a lot of things live, we'll see in the videos. Don't worry for those who are new, who don't know much, it's with time that you learn, and repetition especially. Does anyone have another question before we close the session? When is the training coming out? Oh, I wonder who asked that question. I didn't, but I know very well that you know. Yeah, I thought I... No, well, I have an appointment, what day is it? It's Tuesday today. I have an appointment tomorrow to see how the team will implement the training on the site. So, everything is ready. That's all that's missing, and then it's good. Okay. And you want to laugh? I had the same question. I'm in a hurry for the training too. Ah, well, it will be within this month. It will be available. Yeah, anyway, I've seen, I receive emails for those who are in the application space to apply for the training. I'm helping you a lot with it. So, we're on it. We're on it. So, yeah. It's finished, it's all clean. It just needs to be put on the site. I hope the provider will manage to put it on the site. I hope so too. There are a lot of videos. There are 25 hours. So you have enough to... you have enough to digest the training. There are exercises and everything. Well, I assume so. Uh, no, well, there are no exercises in themselves in the sense that you finish a video and then I give you homework to do before the next video, because I know in practice people won't do them. But during the videos, I clearly tell you what you can look at on your own, what you need to look at, and you can do it. Okay. Okay. Okay. After, it's always the same thing. Practical exercises are quite simple. I state a concept. I tell you, well, look, it happens 90% of the time. And then it's everyone's responsibility to take your charts. You take your SP500, if I'm talking about that, you take your Bitcoin, you take your Total 2, 3, whatever. And then you backtest on the charts, you'll eat charts, charts. The exercise is for you to do it yourself by reproducing what you've learned. Yeah, that's it. I'm not going to give you a certificate of completion for the training with a test and a multiple-choice quiz at the end. So it's up to each person to polish it. God knows you'll have to watch it two or three times in its entirety to assimilate everything. Take notes too. I say that in the first video, I say directly, take your notebook or open your Word or whatever, and take notes of what I'm saying, because otherwise you're screwed. There's too much stuff. Yeah. So I'll have to watch it 20 or 30 times because I'm incapable of taking notes. Well, after you can... No, no, you can't. No, I was going to say you can almost take one that makes you now because it will be read-only from the site. You can't download the videos. Ah, no, but even, to each their own way of doing things. For me, it's really about listening, listening, listening, and that's how it sinks in best. Yeah. That's also why I've learned a lot from you, because you often do little radio shows, ATR, and lives where you explain things, and there's a lot of that, it's helped me a lot and it's allowed me to learn a lot, really. Yeah. Well, magnificent. That's the goal. That's the goal. That's really the, in any case, the will of the community, it's to be there as much as possible for everyone. That's why there are these radio shows, that we break away from this, let's say, passivity, let's say, between YouTube, because honestly, let's not lie, it's easy to make videos. I mean, any of you can very well make, for example, one video, three videos, 10 videos on the principles of liquidity, learn everything by heart, make a video where you cut out all the times you stutter, put it on YouTube, and then everyone will think you've mastered this subject for years. It's different to come on Discord, to be live, to have questions about how you saw it, it's varied, you know, on options, on indicators, on concepts that are quite complicated. It also allows you to see, on the fly, that we are here and we have solid foundations and the skills to answer your questions. That reassures, and this closeness to everyone, and especially this link that exists, and I think it's nowhere else, having been in other communities just to see what they were doing. A real direct link. We ask questions, we get answers. It's not just reading a weekly report that doesn't necessarily contain what we expect. YouTube videos that don't cover the subject we want. Here, there are lives, radio shows, everyone is there live, we ask questions, there's no editing, nothing is cut, nothing is hidden, and I think that's a real added value.
For you, I hope in any case. Ah, that's clear. That's clear. It's a monstrous added value. And uh, I would also add that for me, there's a thing that I love about this community too, it's the atmosphere. It's really a community that has always been pleasant so far. Yes, we had a few cases at one point, but it was quickly managed. It's an extremely pleasant community and that's wonderful, long may it continue. Yes, that's clear.
Otherwise, there's R3 who asked a question. Where are you in the back testing of your homemade tool that beeps the bottoms? Yes. Well, it beeped on October 17th and then well, and then well, and then well, it failed for the first time. So there you go. For now, one failure and plenty of success. So I'm waiting for it to beep 10 times. We're not at 10 times yet. I'm waiting for it to beep 10 times because from 10 times, I can already put stats. Say 9 times out of 10, 8 times out of 10. So I'm waiting for a round number for probabilities. Yes. Yes.
Ah yes, you're right. It's better to have at least a dozen to be able to form an opinion on it. Yes, for sure, for sure. After, the ideal is a hundred, but well, that will be a little later. And it's the same sometimes, I try to help answer questions, but I admit that often I don't dare to answer too much because I'm afraid of saying something stupid and I don't want to put someone in trouble by telling them something stupid. That's also why in my answers, I often try to include an @ to an admin, you, or yes, yes, you do well, a violet one so that they can read it and so if I say something stupid, at least I'll be corrected, you see. Yes.
No, but you're right because after all, there's also the concept of responsibility, it's important. Uh, there you go, if things are said and all, it's always better that it's, between quotes, our fault than that of a member who said something stupid. So there you go. Yes. Well, yes. Yes.
Well, after all, I try to help despite everything because you can't be everywhere and you can't answer everything either. So I tell myself, even just putting an answer, it will be less long to read it and say, okay, I'm saying nothing, it's validated, rather than having to provide an answer and build it. Hm hm. Yes, that's clear. That's clear. But in any case, thank you. It's always good to. Well, you just have to think before answering, but otherwise, well, it's also in the community, we help each other and we answer each other as best we can. Anyway, we are 7 or 8 on our side. You've noticed the moderators for group 3, their names are in violet. Except Andrea who is in yellow, admin, but we are there to keep an eye on things and all, and if something stupid is posted, we correct it very politely. There you go. And after we also arrive by correcting something stupid, and in fact, it's us who say something stupid, but at least it's us who take responsibility for it. Yes, well, yes, especially since it's you who run the thing. So there you go, it's up to you to take responsibility if there's something stupid in the title. Yes, exactly. Yes, Andrea is yellow because he was the test mod. No, he's not. He's yellow because he's employed by the company. He has a rank. Yes, I know. But remember when you made him yellow back then, it was because you needed a mod on the spot. And Ah yes, yes. Ah, you remember that? Yes, that's true. Yes, at the time. Yes, it's just. Yes. Yes, someone was needed to mute and all. He had the powers, he was the test mod. He, yes, yes, he had the powers, he exercised them with conscience and responsibility. There you go. Well done, Andre. No, the right answer because he was a golden guy. That's what you should have answered. Yes, also. And he's not even here to hear you, you see. Chap.
Uh, no, but really, Andrea was a very good choice, I think, and for now, I think he has proven it well that it was a very good choice. Yes, yes, all have been very good choices. All of them. I had a question. Yes, it will be the last one, then I'll have to hang up. Unfortunately, I have an appointment. We can hear you very well. Yes. Yes, great.
So, however, I can't hear you at all anymore. Can you hear me now or not? I have the impression you're taking a bath and your phone is placed 10 meters away. No, almost, but it's better. Yes, I have a microphone, so I'm making do with what I have, but sorry. Can you hear me better now or not? Yes, I was looking at the ATH chart and we are really, really below the prices you bought at. Uh, yes, we bought back at 400, so yes, we're taking a hit. So I was thinking, yes, I have some stable coins. Rather than waiting, I can perhaps wait for the drop to 98, 97 and get back into ATH. You can, but respect the portfolio allocation. Yes. Yes. But you can. Yes, of course. Okay. Okay. And Spark, you? Yes, we are still. It's still okay on that. We are Spark or Stark? Spark. Spark. Yes, Spark. Yes. Yes. We are still SPK. Yes.
It's still there, but what I recommend to you at that point, if you want to allocate a bit, do it in DCA so you keep some cash too if there's a big drop, and then it allows you to allocate, so not to have too many regrets about having waited, you see, because if you don't keep a little cash, there will inevitably be a moment when you'll see that we'll propose an allocation and you'll say, I have no more cash. I say this because it happened to me three or four times. I lost my mind because of it, and now I keep a little cash.
Mister T. Yes, the question that arises is, is this investment advice or are you just a guy in his office? I am a guy in this moment, precisely, precisely because it is recorded, there will be a replay, so it could be taken as advice, but it's a good, it's good advice for that matter. It's good advice. It's not investment advice. I'm just a guy in his office. I haven't passed the exam yet to be able to say it's investment advice. I intend to. Thank you guys, and I'm telling you this from my bath. Thank you. Cool.
Well guys, I'm going to have to hang up, unfortunately, because I have an appointment. Anyway, it's Tuesday. I think we'll do another one on Friday. Friday morning, maybe around 10 am, I think. We'll do another one. No, I can't. No, I have an appointment Friday morning. We'll do one Friday afternoon with great pleasure. Okay. Well, thank you very much for your availability and all, in any case. With great pleasure. And I'm going to put the replay of the radio back in the living room, which is called, well, replay. It's called replay, isn't it? There you go. Yes. No, live and radio. There you go, live Thursday, recap of lives, I'll put it in there if needed. Thank you. Bye bye everyone. Have a good day. Ciao ciao.