Transcription
After the big rebound we had on altcoins, I wanted to give you a more settled, calmer update today on the situation we might eventually have with altcoins, with just a very, very simple scenario for what's next. Also, we'll talk a little bit about altcoin dominance, and I think we'll also look at other indices to get a sense of the direction of altcoins. Do we have the possibility of going up again, or on the contrary, are we rather in a bearish scenario? We'll really try to settle down calmly and try to answer this question. Just before we start, there are the results of the SPT algorithms from last week, the LIM algorithms, which came out at +15.41% last week for the SPT algorithm. It's one of its best weeks. The 4th quarter for now is really very good. Again, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Also, the LIM algorithms made 16% last week. To access these algorithms, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate, our partner link. Once that's done, you also have the possibility to get a 10% bonus depending on your deposit. So for example, if you deposit 500 dollars, you will get 50 dollars deposit bonus. You just need to click here on "join" to access it. It's exclusively via our partner link. So make sure to go through this link. Once that's done, you create your account and then to access the Algo and the mentorship to the Alcoin VIP, you just need to click on this second link. It's a short video in which, pardon, I explain absolutely everything. You will have access to the mentorship, to Algo Trading, and also to the Alcoin VIP. Alcoin VIP, this is where I will share the best opportunities in the Alt market. From my point of view, it will be more in an investment perspective. Well, I don't really like to say investment, more medium to long-term speculation.
So, to come back to alts, so well, there was the huge pump we had and so on, many altcoins retraced into interesting zones, fair value zones, low volume profile zones. I'll redirect you to my video from yesterday for those who haven't seen it yet, to explain why there was this pump precisely. And so, as we saw yesterday, it was just on illiquid altcoins. If you look closely at the big, very liquid cryptocurrencies, strangely they didn't move much because it's much easier to move markets that are illiquid than markets that are very liquid. And so here, to come back to Oders, for me, it's the best indicator to observe the Alt market. It's an indicator, well, it's an index that takes the entire crypto market outside the top 10. So it allows us to really get an idea, by removing the top performers, to get a bit more of the underperforming altcoins, or rather, those that perform a little less generally. And so here we can see that, well, firstly, for now, in 2024, we haven't managed to make new ATHs. It's very correlated to what we have in the stock market. I talk about it quite often. On the Russell 2000 side, we have exactly the same thing. It's an index that takes more small valuations, and we can see that it also hasn't managed to make new ATHs. We see that we are simply blocked at the level of the 2021 ATH, so it's quite clear. Well, we do see that the Russell is stronger than what we have on the crypto side. Again, it's normal. This week, I'm releasing a video on liquidity, how it impacts the market, how to really identify liquidity and not every two days say "Yes, no, but it's certain that the Fed will print. No, but they will print." No, really, what's happening? Where are we regarding liquidity to really, well, not get carried away and say "No, but it's certain they will print, so altcoins will go to the moon." No, factually, what's happening with liquidity? I'll give you an update on that this week. And so, for now, well, as you know, we are in a QT, so liquidity is indeed reduced. We have a contraction of liquidity, and capital flows more, well, where there is existing hype, where investors are going, and they are all going into the AI and tech market. Period. There are other small sectors on the side, but really AI and tech remain the two big sectors, especially AI, where capital is heading. There are fundraising rounds everywhere, money is circulating, and since there is a liquidity contraction, we are forced to sell assets that are overperforming, or rather, underperforming, to position ourselves in assets that are performing well. That's how fund managers operate right now. Just look at what's happening in the stock market. Lots of big companies have crashed since the bubble because money is circulating. When we are in QE, there is so much liquidity that we can fund everything, but when we are in QT, there is much less liquidity. So automatically, we have to make choices, and therefore altcoins, well, that's the last choice. That's what needs to be understood.
Now, from a technical point of view on Oders, here we have formed a breaker, meaning that when I compare the dynamics of Bitcoin and altcoins, I can clearly and factually note that Bitcoin has managed to make a new ATH. Here, altcoins have not succeeded. This is factual, meaning that we can also see it. I can also note a new, shorter-term divergence that has formed. Meaning that here Bitcoin had still managed to make a new ATH. Altcoins have not succeeded. See descending peaks and here ascending peaks. So this is again a sign of weakness at that moment for altcoins. What interests us is whether we will manage to make a new ascending peak or not. That would be a good sign because if we don't succeed on alts, what does that mean? It means that simply this rise on Bitcoin here has come to make a new peak, which is not the case on Oders, and that's what's causing us to make a descending peak here. I won't hide from you that if we don't manage to make a new peak, the dynamic wants, well, there are no wishes, but there would be a high probability now of breaking this low that simply on alts we have just made a new lower low. Why? Because we made a descending peak, and so there are two possibilities in a bearish dynamic. Either the market is kind and consolidates to either make a bearish break or a future breaker, whatever, or the market continues this bearish dynamic and therefore, since it made a descending peak, it will try to make a lower low than this one. It has already made one with the wick, but let's say it's really in rare circumstances. Let's say it didn't exist, broadly speaking. And so it would be to come back to this low, or even this low. So that's the low of August 2024, or the low of April 2025. We already see the difference. We see that Bitcoin, it's roughly at its levels here from June 2025. Well, on alts, we've returned to roughly these levels, but we see that very quickly we can return to April levels, where for Bitcoin, it would be much more complicated. So, we see that there is weakness on the altcoin side versus, there's no secret about it. And the benchmark for me here is this breaker. That is to say, if altcoins pull back to the breaker and get rejected, it confirms the end of this bullish dynamic because again, there are two ways to read the price, or rather, I'm dissecting the movements. That is to say, the initial long-term movement is bullish until proven otherwise. Low, peak, low, peak, ascending low. For now, there's a descending peak, but we're not sure it's the final peak. I mean, the price could very well do this and continue the dynamic and make a new ascending peak. That's entirely possible. To validate that, we would need to reclaim the bullish breaker. On the other hand, if the market here marks us a descending peak, we are in the perspective of looking for a descending low, and therefore I am observing this dynamic. Can we judge yes or no that this dynamic is over and that we are validating our descending peak and that we are already starting to move into a bearish leg? What confirms this is the breaker block. Here, I can note that we had a low, a peak, an ascending low, an ascending peak, an ascending low, an ascending peak, an ascending low, an ascending peak, a descending low, and a breaker. So this is what marks an inversion. I'm showing it to you here with two candles. You can clearly see that the last low, the last two lows have been broken. And so this is what should have been avoided at all costs because it breaks this bullish dynamic that some who do chartism might consider, for example, a bull flag. That is to say, we made a bull flag that is breaking to the south, and we are starting to go down. Well, okay, it's possible. It doesn't mean it's the end, but okay, it's potentially possible. What I'm observing, I'm telling you honestly, is the breaker. As long as the market doesn't reclaim this bearish breaker, there are indeed chances, unfortunately, of validating the red scenario, which would be a scenario where we go back to test the lows we left behind.
So, I'll even look at the 2024 low because, in my opinion, that would be the target. So I'm switching to yearly and I'm noting here the 2024 low. So I'll call this "2024 Low" for the 2024 low, simply. And so, at that point, that would be the target, if we validate the bearish dynamic, it would be to go back below the 2024 low, which corresponds, if TradingView wants to load, to the low of August 2024. And so there, we would hunt the wick and so on, and then we would make a lower low. Well, again, annual lows on altcoins are bought. It would be an interesting zone to buy. But it would mean that the Alt market is still in this bearish movement. Positive scenario, we reclaim the breaker block. So I'm switching back to weekly. We arrive, you see here, it was a support zone. We manage to re-enter above the breaker, and there, it's super positive to make a new peak and continue our long-term bullish dynamic. That is to say, here, we continue, we go up, and we aim for a new ascending peak. And so, we would have several weeks of gains to come, potentially, on altcoins. But for me, as long as we stay below the breaker, the dynamic remains bearish.
Then, what you do is you look at your altcoin and you evaluate it against Oders. If it underperforms Bitcoin, well, for me, it's not very interesting, but if it underperforms Oders, it's even worse. So there, you take any of your assets. For example, if we take Zek and divide it by Oders, well, we see directly that Zek has outperformed Oders. So we said that here it was rather encouraging, and it continues to outperform. We see that since we had these breakouts, it's exploding. On the other hand, if you take a token like GLD, for example, or any, you could take Rose, whatever, there are so many tokens in bearish dynamics, well, we can see that here, for the moment, EGLD, for example, continues to outperform Oders. So there, you can even switch to logarithmic because it depends on the charts. But sometimes, it's true that it's a bit more complicated. Even if I switch to logarithmic here, it's a bit complicated, but we see that it's still in a bearish dynamic. So, for example, EGLD is underperforming the overall Alt market enormously. So, first, you need to see if your asset is stronger or weaker. For example, if you take Hyperliquid and divide it by Oders, we directly see that Hyperliquid is outperforming. And there, it's still very strong. It's almost at ATH. So Hyperliquid, if you position yourself on Hyperliquid and you are bullish on altcoins, well, theoretically, Hyperliquid should, I say theoretically, continue to outperform alts globally. And you can do this with many tokens. Okay? You look, you take your token, you divide it by Oders, and you look at the chart. If it looks like this, it means your token is very good against altcoins. If it looks like what I showed you for EGLD, it's not at all positive. And so, if Oders manages to reclaim its bearish breaker, meaning it validates the bullish scenario, well, if you are positioned on an altcoin that is stronger than Oders, you will benefit even more. After, I'm telling you, ideally, you should also look against Bitcoin if it's bullish, because if it's very bearish against Bitcoin, it's better to stay on BTC. But that's another debate. But so here, for example, if Oders goes back up against this Breaker, I expect Hyperliquid to make new ATHs and perhaps even head towards 60 dollars and more. On the other hand, if we get rejected by the breaker here, we make a bearish continuation, and we come back to retest this wick, or even we come to take the 2024 low, even if Hyperliquid is stronger, we could expect Hyperliquid to also go south. And so tokens like EGLD, Rose, and so on, which are very weak against Oders, well, they would sink even lower because they would be underperforming. So that would not be at all positive. So this can be a way for you to observe the strength of your asset, or rather your altcoin, against other assets in the market. So here, in this case, the index which is a rather interesting index. Well, it's not very realistic, it doesn't necessarily represent what's really happening in the Alt market because there's a lot of supply that has been added, so there's a lot of capitalization, so it has impacted the crypto market cap. But anyway, it allows us to get an idea. If you want to get an even more interesting idea, you take the Coin 50. It's the new Coinbase index, it's been a few months now. And it's quite recent, and it allows you to get a real idea of the assets that have been chosen by Coinbase, which they consider quite interesting and which have a dynamic that is not too bad either. After, it's the same thing, meaning that on Coin 50, we can also note here that we have bearish breakers on daily. These will be interesting zones. Notably, there's a very big bearish breaker that has formed, which we could observe right here. So it's about saying that the market will probably come back to work this breaker zone, and we'll be fixed on the alts. For example, if we manage to reclaim this breaker on Coin 50, again, it would be positive to head towards CFVG, or even make a new ATH. On the other hand, if we get rejected by the breaker, well, we will continue to work lower. Notably, the lowest point to work on next will be this June low. So that would confirm a bearish dynamic on Alts. So these are really the indices I'm watching. Anyway, we see here that there was a support zone. So if we pull back and it continues to fall afterwards, well, if we break this fair value gap, we will probably go to look for the low and the last fair value gap here. So that would be a signal of continuation downwards on the altcoin market. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a little thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. You have plenty of free content. Don't hesitate. We'll see you very soon.