State of the economy: Fed independence, debt, gold, AI power & market risks

这是国情咨文。经济状况如何？欢迎收看《丹尼·摩西斯秀》特别节目。>> 30多年来，他一直战胜华尔街，预言了著名的“大空头”。现在，他为你而来。这是《丹尼·摩西斯秀》。我是丹尼·摩西斯。我的承诺是实事求是。大多数时候我们只有半小时。这次不一样。在接下来的一个小时里，我们将与那些比大多数人更了解经济的人进行深入的对话。在这个精选合集中，我们将为您带来一些精彩片段，包括为什么您应该比道琼斯指数达到 50,000 点更关心我们的国债水平。黄金价格飙升告诉我们什么，能源价格正在发生什么，以及为什么三哩岛核电站又出现在新闻中，谁将执掌美联储，以及为什么它的独立性如此重要，以及从我客人的视角以及现金事件合同的形式来表达市场主题的最佳方式。所以，请坐好，尽情享受。尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于 5 月结束，但这并没有阻止特朗普总统对他进行抨击。他已提名凯文·沃什接替他，但鲍威尔仍将在美联储理事会任职。但美联储的独立性受到了极大的质疑。这也是我与卡梅隆·道森讨论的话题之一。>> 整体经济增长是增长是嗯，看起来是稳固的。而且不仅仅是这些事情。就是消费者。消费者正在填写，你知道，听起来非常负面的调查，然后进行消费。所以，一段时间以来，悲观的调查和，你知道，相当不错的消费数据之间一直存在脱节。>> 所以，显然你写了关于这个的文章，但我们来谈谈我们称之为 K 型经济及其影响，我们将需要消费者继续消费，并且在某个时候，这个 K 型经济会进一步拉伸。解释一下那是什么，以及你认为它将如何继续下去。所以 K 型经济实际上是一种说法，即经济的两个腿正在经历非常不同的事情，无论是消费者，但对于企业也是如此，这里的整个概念是，最大的消费者或最高收入的消费者非常强大，他们正在推动美国大部分的消费。这个统计数据非常惊人。收入最高的 10% 的人占美国消费的 50%。如果你想到那些高收入者，他们不仅收入强劲，而且在过去五年里，他们的房价也大幅升值，股市也一直在蓬勃发展。所以你会得到所谓的财富效应，它也提振了消费者。这正是我们看到调查结果之间出现这种差异的原因，因为调查结果实际上是等权重的。每个人的投票都算数。你打电话给调查对象，或者你在网上填写一份调查问卷，所以高收入消费者和低收入消费者算数相同。但你想到那个消费数据，它非常偏向于那些高收入消费者。所以实际上他们的实力正在掩盖我们正在看到的表面之下的一些疲软。所以总体数据看起来不错，但当你深入了解时，肯定会感到痛苦。>> 只要我们还在谈论美联储，嗯，关于这个话题，美联储的独立性显然非常重要。我认为无论你是否喜欢美联储，这都很重要。我认为这是一个重要的话题。鲍威尔可能在这个时候对自己说，谢天谢地我只有两次会议了，因为他可能不想再处理这件事了。>> 利率可能应该在哪里，或者你认为美联储是如何处理这个问题的？如果有人进来并降息只是为了取悦某人，但实际上可能会刺激通胀，那会产生什么影响？所以，美联储的政策中有一个概念叫做中性利率，你可能听说过它被称为中性利率或所谓的 rstar，它实际上是这个假设的利率，它存在于以太中，既不刺激经济增长，也不限制经济增长，而这个想法是，美联储在当前这个节点希望接近中性。挑战在于，关于中性利率是什么，存在很多争论。一些美联储成员认为我们实际上已经低于中性。但也有其他美联储成员，比如最近任命的迈因以及财政部长贝桑特，他们认为中性利率更低，这就是他们为今天如此低的利率辩护的方式。关于一个不独立的联邦储备委员会的后果的问题确实很有趣，因为你不仅可能需要一个整个理事会投票赞成你的意愿。所以不只是主席，整个理事会都必须获得多数票才能降息，无论如何。然后，如果你控制了理事会，下一个问题是，你会犯政策错误吗？美联储的政策错误可能看起来像是在他们应该保持较高利率时降息，或者由于通胀或经济增长而提高利率。另一方面的政策错误是，当经济蓬勃发展时，他们将利率保持得过低。所以首先你必须控制美联储，然后你必须犯政策错误。最后一点也很重要。这种政策错误必须有后果。也就是说，你必须看到通胀开始走高。你必须看到通胀预期开始变得不稳定，他们称之为“脱锚”。所以这三件事都必须发生，债券市场才会真正关心美联储缺乏独立性，这可能就是为什么到目前为止，债券市场对美联储独立性的一些威胁不屑一顾的原因。>> 我们正处于财报季。我想我们已经进行到三分之一了，在这个节点上。我们已经看到一些大公司公布了业绩。到目前为止，它告诉你什么？就收益增长而言，我认为我们需要在 2026 年有一个相当高的数字来证明标准普尔 500 指数目前的交易价格是合理的。天哪，门槛非常高。当我们想到这些企业将不得不增长多少收益才能达到预期，更不用说超越预期了，这就像在奥运会上进行撑杆跳。所以，实际上，股票市场认为他们不仅预计 2026 年经济会非常强劲，而且实际上预计 2026 年还会出现生产力繁荣。所以，这就造成了那个高门槛。另一件事是，自 11 月以来，我们经历了一次非常顺周期的风险偏好反弹。所以，当我们想到股票市场的不同板块时，有些板块在情况糟糕时表现良好。那些是防御型股票。然后，股票市场还有其他一些板块，它们需要经济非常强劲才能表现良好。这些通常是工业、材料、能源股、消费者酌情支出等对经济非常敏感的股票。这些股票以及工业商品，比如铜以及周期性货币。所以像澳元这样的货币一直在大幅上涨，这表明交易员正在为全球经济加速而进行定位和预期。所以我们必须非常密切地关注数据是否开始支持这一点。就目前而言，我们感觉就像温蒂汉堡的女士在问“牛肉在哪里？”我们就像“加速在哪里？”但请永远记住，价格领先于数据。所以价格会在数据出现很久之前就发生变动。>> 接下来，华尔街创下纪录。我将解释为什么它可能不像你想象的那样。此外，今年冬天的电费账单达到了疯狂的水平。不要指望很快就能得到缓解，以及现在在市场上寻找机会的地方。这是《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的特别节目。嗯，我记得我第一次赢的时候，他们说如果他能在四年结束时将道琼斯指数推高到 50,000 点，他就会创造奇迹，而我们正处于第一年的结束。>> 特朗普总统在谈论道琼斯指数突破 50,000 点的关口。在他说了之后，我解释了为什么道琼斯指数不是评估美国市场整体实力的好方法。让我先介绍一些背景。道琼斯工业平均指数于 1896 年首次亮相，是查尔斯·道（Charles Dao）的创意，他与爱德华·琼斯（Edward Jones）在 1889 年早些时候共同创办了《华尔街日报》。最初由 12 只股票组成，重点是工业公司，因为它们在当时的重要性。虽然 19 世纪末的股票投资很普遍，但它被富人和有关系的人所主导。在 1929 年崩盘之前，它在咆哮的 20 年代变得更加普遍，无论好坏，它都巩固了道琼斯指数作为市场晴雨表的地位。标准普尔 500 指数，最初称为标准 500 指数，创建于 1957 年。虽然它也高度关注工业股，但它代表了美国股市总市值的 90% 以上。从一开始，该指数就是市值加权，同时考虑了价格和流通股数量，这与仅按价格计算的道琼斯指数不同。让我举个例子。高盛的股价约为 950 美元，是道琼斯 30 只股票中最高的，市值达 2850 亿美元，但它对指数的影响比苹果股票更大，苹果股价为 270 美元，市值达 4 万亿美元。高盛股价变动 10% 将相当于约 95 点道琼斯指数。苹果股价变动 10% 将约为 27 点。然而，苹果股价变动 10% 将代表约 4000 亿美元的价值，这比高盛的整个市值还要大。再举一个道琼斯成分股的例子。就市值而言，沃尔玛的规模约为家得宝的三倍。然而，家得宝在道琼斯指数中的权重是沃尔玛的三倍，因为其股价约为 390 美元，约为沃尔玛不足 130 美元股价的三倍。我希望这能证明我的观点。那么，为什么道琼斯指数仍然被广泛用作衡量股市表现的指标呢？嗯，最初的道琼斯公司于 2007 年被新闻集团收购，拥有包括《华尔街日报》和《巴伦周刊》在内的多家金融出版物，并且还受益于指数挂钩产品（如 ETF、期货和期权）的创建和交易，直到 2013 年将其剩余权利出售给标准普尔和 CME 集团的合资企业。仅由贝莱德管理的 DIA ETF 就拥有近 500 亿美元的资产，贝莱德向该合资企业支付许可费以获得该指数的许可。我看不出华尔街日报会停止谈论道琼斯指数，或者指数提供商会停止授权权利的场景。所以，虽然被列入道琼斯指数的 30 只股票之一可能是一家公司的一项崇高荣誉，但寻求适当市场权重多元化的投资者应该关注标准普尔 500 指数，在那里，你猜对了，所有 30 只道琼斯股票都包含在内。在《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的这个精选合集中，我们将继续讨论我们的电费账单带来的持续痛苦，以及为什么人工智能的爆炸式增长可能导致它在短期内无法得到改善，以及我们创纪录的国债带来的日益增长的危险，为什么你应该关心，以及为什么我如此喜欢黄金。这是《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的特别国情咨文版。我是丹尼·摩西斯。美国国债处于历史最高水平，接近 39 万亿美元，并且每天都在增长。这是我最近与我的大空头伙伴文森特·丹尼尔和波特·柯林斯谈话的主题。嗯，美国的债务很高，现在是你预算中最大的支出。如何摆脱这种冲动？>> 嗯，大事是增长。我的意思是，增长就是出路。如果我们像这样增长，我们将从拥有 37 万亿、36 万亿、37 万亿债务转变为拥有高债务到低债务。但我们也削减了开支，你知道，用老办法。我们有非凡的增长。我认为我们将通过增长来摆脱困境。我认为我们将偿还债务。我们从关税中获得了巨额收入，而且是公平的。再次，我明智地使用它们，你知道。瑞士是一个案例研究。我可以得到更多。我可以要求更多，但是，我们明智地使用它们，但是，我认为增长最重要。然后削减成本。>> 好的。我的反应是，债务不是 36 万亿或 37 万亿，但那是一万亿左右？它接近 39 万亿美元。是的，我们可以刺激增长，但我认为我们不会削减去年发生的 1.8 万亿美元的赤字。这里。所以其中一些政策是的，可以提供帮助，但是当你削减税收等等时，我只是看不到这会如何发生。所以，伙计们，文尼，我先问你。嗯，我们如何管理这个问题？它会永远重要吗？>> 嗯，我的想法是，我们正在管理它，但我们是以大多数人看不到的方式在管理它，对吧，丹尼？而且，我们在很大程度上是在贬值货币。在很多方面，随着债务的增长，我们总是问自己这个问题，世界上谁会以我们需要的价格购买这些债务，以便我们能够继续蓬勃发展？无论我们找到真实的、有形的买家，比如保险公司或储蓄者，或者我们找不到，我们都会通过各种手段来完成。我们将通过印钞来完成，他们会使用一些花哨的术语，比如量化宽松或某种，你知道，一堆缩略语来解释我们在做什么，或者允许人们，我们正在做的，让他们自己增加杠杆并购买国债，并获得微薄的回报。无论哪种方式，我们都认为，为了保持简单，他们将继续贬值货币，以便我们能够继续享受这种财政上的放纵，我们可能会在稍后讨论这个问题。但对我们来说，所有道路都通向黄金，这是我们所看到的结果。>> 你偷了我的话，波特，我相信他会提到。所以，波特，你为什么不谈谈国债以及我们能做些什么，如果能做的话？>> 嗯，他，他关于我们需要通过增长来摆脱债务是正确的。他错就错在，我们不会偿还债务，对吧？我认为在 2023 年，我们写了年度信，关于你知道的国债将在几年内接近 40 万亿美元，不出所料，几年后我们就在这里了，对吧？所以那个速度并没有放缓，而且债务增长的总规模本身就是一个问题，我认为，你知道，无论债务是 40 万亿、50 万亿还是 60 万亿，它都不会下降，而且显然利息成本只是在不断累积。所以，这就是我的看法。而且，听着，我希望我们能通过增长摆脱困境。但我们需要更多的增长才能真正地，你知道，摆脱债务。所以，好了，还有其他影响市场的议题，美联储的独立性以及关税。所以最高法院将在这两个议题中都发挥作用。它听取了丽莎·库克解雇案。大法官们似乎准备保护她，并将决定总统的关税是否合宪。所以，文尼，一个问题。我知道我们俩对美联储的看法，他们如何处理 2008 年金融危机，所有需要进行的量化宽松，我猜。你认为美联储的独立性如何？它对市场有多重要？>> 嗯，我，我很抱歉，我笑了，因为你问这个问题，因为首先我必须说，我的观点是，我从来不相信美联储曾经独立过，而且我们会争论，不是我们之间争论，而是与其他人争论关于美联储所谓的独立性。对我来说，这是一个虚假的幌子，用来区分国会的花费功能和印钞机。但对大众来说，这个虚假的幌子很重要。所以，特朗普总统可能会打破现状。而且，正如我们所见，任何打破现状的人都会是他。对我来说，有趣的是，他也想任命，他今年有能力任命一位新的美联储主席。我知道这有点模糊，确切的发生方式，但我们很可能在 5 月份或至少在今年夏天之前就会有一位新的美联储主席。我忘了确切的日期。>> 将是五月底，六月。所以六月新任美联储主席上任。是的。在他发表的演讲中，他曾要求或建议，无论新任主席是谁，即使经济继续升温，也要继续降低利率，这可以说是前所未有的，对吧？这通常不是美联储的交战规则。所以，再次，那是特朗普总统打破现状。我们开玩笑说，我们不断回到拥有价值储存手段和有形物品，以及他们无法用法定货币印刷的东西有很多原因。这导致了黄金、白银和商品等事物。但是当你开始听到这些东西时，这就是我们如何不断回归到我们今天进行的投资。>> 好了，波特，我们刚才提到了关税的言论和实施。这已经持续了将近一年了。你怎么看？我知道我们有时会在白天谈论市场的变动，基本上是每一次眼泪的恐慌，但我如何应对呢？>> 嗯，我的意思是，正如文尼所说，我们投资组合中最大的主题之一是我们一直在谈论黄金。这里就变得有点复杂了，我们的背景和金融系统帮助我们真正理解正在发生的事情。外国中央银行拥有大量美元，因为它是世界储备货币，对吧？而问题是，他们实际上并不拥有美元。他们拥有的是大量的美国政府债务或国债。这在过去 40 年里确实奏效。但最近，你知道，像中国这样的中央银行已经开始想，我需要拥有所有这些债务吗？他们所做的微妙转变，以及其他中央银行所做的转变，他们决定拥有资产而不是负债或债务。所以，你知道，几个世纪以来，黄金一直是金融系统的基石。所以，这是一种回归了几个世纪以来行之有效的东西的微妙转变。所以，你知道，这种微妙的转变导致黄金价格最近翻了一番。所以，你知道，我们认为这将会继续下去。嗯，我们认为这不是一两年就能完成的交易。我们认为这是一笔多年的交易。所以，你知道，大多数美国人并不拥有很多黄金。他们拥有股票市场。而这在过去，你知道，40 年里一直是值得拥有的东西。再次。嗯，但如果你真的深入了解，自 2000 年以来，黄金的表现实际上比标准普尔 500 指数更好。所以，嗯，我们很高兴拥有它，这是我们正在做的事情的一个重点。>> 是的。我认为对于那些没有跟踪的人来说，黄金目前大约是 35 万亿美元的资产，如果你想加起来的话，甚至可能更多。所以，我想问的问题是，如果由于美国无法管理其债务而导致利率开始上升，会发生什么？我的意思是，这实际上是你们两个的问题，但波特，我知道黄金肯定会因此上涨，但这对我来说是可怕的时刻，对吧？而且我在这集节目中开头就提到了，你知道，关于债务本身，以及如果按照文尼的说法，如果美联储试图在通胀面前降息，人们会怎么想，你可能会看到利率走高，所以我想这只会增加你对黄金的论点。嗯，那确实是可怕的时刻。如果利率上升会怎样？显然，40 万亿美元的利息支出会大幅增加，如果利率大幅上升。所以你必须问自己， keeping this debt cost low and or or rates low. 保持这个债务成本低廉，或者利率低廉，对整个美国来说，是国家，你知道，国防重要性，国家重要性吗？我会说，是的。而且，你知道，你历史上已经看到过这种情况，你知道，美联储发行了大量的两年期国债，而不是十年期国债，因为它的利率较低，对吧？耶伦做过，贝桑特现在也做。所以，你知道，这是两党一致的，对吧？而且是两党一致的。保持低利率对国家安全至关重要。>> 再次感谢文尼和波特。接下来，是什么在推动我们的电价上涨？无论您是房主还是租房者，您可能都会处理每月的公用事业账单。虽然这可能不是您最大的开销，但您可能会注意到过去几年费用的明显增加，即使在非高峰使用时段。调整通胀后，公用事业账单在过去几年实际上得到了控制。那么，导致费率飙升的原因是什么？根据您居住的地点，有几个原因。由于人工智能热潮而建造和提议建造的数据中心需要大量电力，并给现有资源带来压力。其次，升级现有公用事业基础设施的成本持续增加。根据美国能源部的数据，电网即将达到其预期寿命的终点。公用事业公司现在每年花费数百万美元来维护和升级其设施。虽然公用事业公司可以将这些成本分摊给消费者多年，但它们也面临着像野火和风暴这样的自然灾害，给系统带来压力。是的，公用事业公司受到监管，并被禁止敲诈消费者，但它们必须转嫁成本才能正常运作。过去几年的另一个变化是依赖天然气。最近的数据显示，美国发电量比任何其他能源都依赖天然气。天然气发电占美国公用事业规模发电量的 42%，核能占 19%，煤炭占 16%，其余大部分来自可再生能源。虽然天然气提供高效清洁的能源，但它容易受到价格冲击，就像我们现在经历的与席卷全国的大规模风暴和寒冷天气有关的价格冲击一样。那么我们能做些什么呢？我们已经看到了像微软这样的大型科技公司承诺支付其应承担的电力消耗份额以及与电网扩张相关的部分成本。我们还看到了政府最近进行的与电网容量相关的电力拍卖，试图争取更高的资本承诺，以帮助公用事业公司和区域电网运营商（如 PJM，其负责 13 个州和超过 6700 万人）适应电力需求的增加。与所有这些相结合，我们还看到了核能的复苏。像三哩岛这样的旧反应堆正在复活，并且在几十年的负增长和流亡之后，正在建造新的、更小、更高效的反应堆。核反应堆的主要能源来源是铀。但这些反应堆需要时间来建造，我们开始看到长期的世俗性交易展开，铀相关股票终于迎来了春天。核电站现在被纳入这些数据中心交易中。所以，请注意您所在地区发生的事情。这是几周前在《丹尼·摩西斯秀》上播出的。这是一个您可以每周来收听以更好地了解经济真正发生的事情，并分解复杂问题的地方。让我们来谈谈最近的经济数据，特别是失业率。它已降至 4.3%。我与彼得·布克瓦讨论了如何解读它。1 月份非农就业人数增长是预期的两倍，为 130,000 人。130k。这是自去年 4 月份 158,000 人以来的最高增幅。>> 好的。所以，彼得，你非常擅长分解这样的头条新闻，然后深入研究真正发生的事情。你从昨天看到的就业数据头条新闻中有什么看法？>> 所以，这个头条数字包括政府。政府实际上裁员了。所以，在 130,000 人中，有 137,000 人来自医疗保健和社会援助领域，这再次表明大部分工作来自不受经济波动影响的行业。而如果你看看更具周期性的行业，比如休闲和酒店业、零售业、金融服务业、信息业，就没有就业增长。建筑业确实有就业增长，但我们可以将其与数据中心联系起来。这是自 2024 年 11 月以来制造业首次出现就业增长，但仅增加了 5,000 人。所以，当你看到这个就业数字时，是的，头条新闻，我们可以说得很响亮，但深入了解，这是一个更加分化、不均衡、混合的就业图景。>> 而且，只是为了补充一点，失业率低于预期。也请向人们解释一下家庭调查和就业人数的下降以及就业人数的增加是如何改变的，如何移动的。所以，就业调查，嗯，政府调查实际公司。你雇佣了吗？你解雇了吗？家庭调查。他们实际上打电话给人们说，“你找到工作了吗？你没有找到工作吗？你被雇佣了吗？你被解雇了吗？”失业率是根据家庭调查计算的。所以，我们在 1 月份看到的是家庭调查的增长超过了劳动力市场的增长，因此失业率下降了十分之一，达到 4.3%。你现在在美国股市中看到哪些最好的机会，按行业划分，然后也许是一些特定的公司，如果你想提及它们的话，或者不提及的话？我我不知道。所以>> 是的。所以，充分披露，我将要说的一切我们都拥有，而且它不是投资建议。它只是告诉我们我们在做什么。我真正喜欢的两个群体是能源石油和天然气股票以及消费必需品股票。今年年初，这两个群体是市场上最被看不起的群体。每桶石油价格在 60-65 美元左右，可能是世界上最便宜的资产之一。20 年前，油价是 60 美元。将 20 年前的 60 美元通胀调整到今天就是 100 美元。所以，对我来说，与下行相比，有很大的上行空间。我认为下行空间相对有限。你进入 50 美元，一半的美国页岩油公司就无法盈利了。我认为沙特人已经受够了油价下跌，因为他们的预算受到了挤压。所以，如果你能购买那些在价格周期底部产生收益和现金流并支付丰厚股息的公司股票，想象一下当油价和天然气价格高得多时，这些公司会做什么。所以，对我来说，这些是目前市场上最具吸引力的领域。但我认为总体而言，大宗商品，我的意思是，它们，我将，我将借用杰夫·库里的一句话。我们正在看到“旧经济的复仇”。我们看到生成式人工智能技术交易，除了内存和存储之外，显然已经筋疲力尽了。我认为就我们多年来所见的市场主导地位而言，该交易已经结束。并不是说这些股票不能奏效，也不是说这些公司不伟大，而是就它们支撑市场的能力而言，那已经结束了，投资者需要为未来几年找到新的蓝图。>> 你对美联储的独立性及其当前的作用以及它对市场和经济的重要性有何看法？所以，美联储从未真正独立过，特别是那些总部设在华盛顿特区的理事。他们只是那个城市的产物。美联储主席是每天接到国会和总统电话的人。也许不是实际的电话，但你知道，推文，无论什么。所以，总是有政治形势。嗯，无论是这些成员的政治捐款还是其他什么。所以，随着凯文·沃尔什的到来，显然他会面临降息的压力。无论他是否真的认为他应该这样做，他都会，然后我们转向资产负债表，并且有最初的反应。我们看到黄金和白银在他被任命的那天就有了反应，最初的反应是好的，凯文·沃尔什将是一个大鹰派。他将缩减资产负债表，这将有助于美元，我不想拥有黄金和白银。凯文·沃尔什不会缩减资产负债表，但他下次使用量化宽松时会更加明智，并且墙上的那个东西只在紧急情况下拉。至少现在，沃尔什只会在紧急情况下使用量化宽松。嗯，但即便如此，他也会降息。他会面临降息的压力。当事情变得糟糕时，也许他只是会进行量化宽松，因为每个人都会说，“你必须做点什么。”>> 下一期，推动今年股市的因素以及为什么这个节目不仅仅是关于股票和经济。我们也喜欢加入一些娱乐。您正在观看《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的特别国情咨文版。>> 《丹尼·摩西斯秀》由 Cali 赞助。现在回到《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的特别国情咨文版。在我们展望今年市场前景之前，让我们回顾一下我在节目中做的一些其他预测。在我们第一集节目中，我提出了一个合同。比特币在 2026 年会跑赢黄金吗？自那时以来，黄金一直跑赢比特币。虽然选择“否”的合同一直在稳步增长，现在为 66 美分，但我会增加这个头寸。正如我们今天在这里看到的，黄金今年上涨了约 16%，而比特币下跌了约 25%。目前有 41% 的差距。在《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的第二集中，我展示了一个合同。标准普尔 500 指数今年会收盘为正吗？当时我说不。虽然自那时以来，标准普尔 500 指数略有下跌，并且今年基本持平，但“否”合同仍为 35 美分。而且我相信市场将面临一定的回调。我看到“否”合同将从这里走高。我们以 Kouchy 事件合同的形式提供预测，而且不仅仅是关于市场。这是我在超级碗前几天说的。你可以以 68 美分的价格买入海鹰队，如果你赢了比赛，你将获得 1 美元。加上一分钱的佣金，那就是 31 美分或潜在的 45% 的资本回报。与我在其他平台上看到的其他赔率相比，例如 -238，相当于 42% 的回报。而且，通过 Kouchy，我可以交易到更好的价格，而且在整个比赛过程中都可以。其次，虽然海鹰队获胜的可能性很大，四分卫萨姆·达诺德将是 MVP，我不喜欢他 45 美分的价位。这相当于大约加 117。我更喜欢海鹰队跑卫肯尼思·沃克三世，价格不到 10 美分，大约是 10 比 1 的 MVP。虽然跑卫成为 MVP 不常见，但上一个是在 1998 年的野马队的戴维斯。我喜欢这个赔率。而且，作为另一个参考点，沃克在其他平台上提供的赔率不到八比一。而且，再次，如果他在比赛开始时表现强劲，你就可以在比赛中退出合同以获利，无论他最终是否赢得奖项。我正在关注的另一个事件合同是爱国者队近端锋亨特·亨利（Hunter Henry）至少有四次接球。我将他视为这场比赛中德雷克·梅（Drake May）的“安全毯”，你可以选择是，至少四次接球，价格为 53 美分，略高于平价。最后，在 Cali 的超级碗的提及部分，有一个交易，你可以以 69 美分的价格买入，我正在接受，支付 31 美分，所以扣除佣金后有效回报率为 43%，即比赛的解说员迈克·特里科（Mike Tríco）或克里斯·柯林斯沃思（Chris Collinsworth）将在比赛开始到最后一刻的任何时候说出“风”或“有风”这个词。我认为很难相信，在加时赛、任意球尝试和传球之间，我们不会听到“风”或“有风”这个词，尤其是在天气预报显示有潜在的阵风的情况下，我们不会听到“风”或“有风”这个词。哦，还有 NBC 安装了一项名为“天气应用指标”的技术来测量体育场内的风。抱歉，我得把最后一个加进去。请记住，当你在 Koshi 上交易时，你是与其他用户交易，类似于买卖股票。你可以随时进入或退出你的头寸以锁定利润或削减损失。所以，下载 Koshi 应用程序并使用促销代码 Moses，在交易 10 美元时获得 10 美元。超级碗获胜者、MVP，甚至提到“风”这个词。是的，我在亨特·亨利四次接球上失误了，但肯尼思·沃克三世作为 MVP 的表现弥补了这一点。接下来，是什么在推动今年的股市？这是《丹尼·摩西斯秀》的特别国情咨文版。在我们结束本小时的最后几分钟时，让我们深入探讨一下今年市场的前景。这是我最近与亚当·帕克谈话的主题。有什么不同于你的预期？市场是否反应过度？你如何指导投资者“坚持到底”？>> 看看，我的意思是，在美国股市连续三年表现强劲之后，很难看着历史说，我预计，你知道，连续五年表现强劲。你知道，在某个时候，市场开始折价人工智能的所有惊人技术。我认为这是最大的争论，你知道，我们何时才能在生产力方面看到人工智能对企业盈利的好处。所以，今年年初，我认为这是最大的争议之一，我们如何看待大公司的资本支出。嗯，你知道，我们现在正在谈论，人们仍在消化谷歌的业绩以及他们巨大的资本支出数字。所以，这绝对是一个大的争论点。我认为第二个是美联储，正如你在上周的节目中提到的。你知道，一个更鸽派的美联储对股票意味着什么？所以，这些可能是两个主要问题。嗯，我倾向于认为，也许市场的上行空间比普遍看法要小。你知道，每个人都对今年持乐观态度，无论是自上而下还是自下而上。而且我认为，基于我们所处的周期，我们将迎来一个更加震荡的中低个位数年份，而不是高两位数年份。>> 嗯，宏观经济方面有很多噪音在发生。人们已经忽略了这些噪音，转而关注收益。所以，我们今天坐在这里，我们大约进行到了一半的财报季，也许快结束了。你实际上在你的笔记中说过，那些实际超出预期的公司正在下跌，而那些错失预期的公司在某些情况下却在上涨。这是因为市场喜欢预测未来会发生什么。我们现在在科技和软件领域看到了这种情况。所以，深入探讨一下。你刚才谈到了人工智能交易。把这个和我们现在看到的情况联系起来。>> 是的。我认为软件是我们想避免的。这是我们的观点，原因是我们回顾了过去八次软件大幅下跌的情况，比如在六个月的滚动周期内，因为它实际上是从去年年中开始的，一些大公司比如 Service Now、Intuit 和 Salesforce 等等。然后你研究了过去，当它们下跌这么多时，最终会发生什么。最终发生的是它们的收益会错过。所以，对于那些说，好吧，我只是想买这些东西，因为它们下跌了很多，而且它们会回归均值的人，我不知道事情是否那么简单。我想等到看到，你知道，有多少下行修正。而且，如果你认为估值非常有吸引力，我不在乎的论点。一些软件公司在绝对 terms 仍然不是那么便宜。如果你看看 Service Now，例如。所以，我认为，你知道，你不想现在就去接住一把下跌的刀子，只是说，“哦，我将，你知道，试图玩一个死猫跳。”我不喜欢这个想法。我认为你仍然应该谨慎。我认为你和我将在两三年内成为编码专家。我们只需要，我们只需要和我们的电脑说话，告诉它写什么代码。如果这就是我们前进的方向，它会给这些根深蒂固的软件公司带来一些风险。如果你我和一家大公司的首席执行官，我们会看看，我们会说，我们付给谁很多钱？我们能否在三到五年的时间里解决这个问题？我认为这就是为什么软件公司表现不佳，因为人们对其长期价值感到担忧。>> 是的，我认为克劳德（Claude）的 Anthropic 确实是导致问题的原因。完全正确。>> 所以，当你看看软件股时，我只是想再回到这一点。有些公司正在参与其中，有些可能会被淘汰，对吧？所以，你看到了两类公司。你看到了超大规模公司以及所有正在发生的事情。稍微谈谈那个。如果可以的话，稍微详细地解释一下。>> 是的。我认为，你知道，我们的主要观点是，人们称之为超大规模公司，或者人们称之为“八巨头”。我认为你至少要拥有它们市场权重的头寸。它们占标准普尔 500 指数的 38% 左右，但如果你考虑到它们的贝塔值。>> 所以，我们来谈谈谷歌。谷歌是亚马逊。我们来谈谈人们。>> 谷歌、亚马逊、微软、博通、苹果。如果你在那里打赌它们会表现不佳，你就是在说，我认为，你知道，市场交易方式将发生彻底转变。这些公司加起来，“八巨头”预计今年净利润将增长近 30%。它们的毛利润将增长。其余 492 家预计毛利润将下降。所以我认为市场通常会奖励毛利率的扩张。所以我想拥有相当一部分超大规模公司。我认为它们可以收购小型公司，它们可以添加技术，而且它们非常稳固。所以，我宁愿拥有它们，而不是去赌一家像 Service Now 或 Intuit 或 Salesforce.com 这样的下跌的软件公司，我不能 100% 确定它们在 2035 年的业务会是什么样子。所以，这就是我喜欢的配对交易。你知道，我的北极星，我是一名半导体分析师，你知道，我曾多年报道半导体，我的北极星一直是，你知道，我宁愿拥有台积电而不是 Salesforce.com，而且我仍然认为这是正确的方向。嗯，无论是死猫跳交易还是其他。>> 所以你报道了半导体，所以你知道它们总是周期性的。我们一直处于一个世俗的，是的，交易在这里。我们谈论像英伟达这样的公司利润率在 70% 中期。我们知道从长远来看，这可能不可持续，对吧？>> 所以，当你展望未来时，你知道，我们经历了这些增长和世俗的迭代。在你看来，什么时候会变成周期性的？>> 所以，我会把半导体分成大约四类。我先从内存开始，那里的股票表现最好。我的意思是，去年，我认为标准普尔 500 指数中表现最好的五只股票中有四只来自 Sandis、Micron、Western Dig 和 Seagate。所以内存短缺非常严重。我知道这个行业是周期性的，而且我知道，因为库存，当你过度建造时，它是最易腐烂的，这意味着价格下跌得最多。所以，现在是短缺，股票飞涨。我认为你应该更接近于出售与内存相关的证券，而不是购买它们，即使我们未来两三年会有很高的收益，因为我们不会为 Micron 的峰值收益支付峰值倍数。我认为第二类是半导体设备。所以像 Applied Materials、Lam Research、KLA、Corp 等等。嗯，嗯，我认为 ASML 在那里。我认为这些公司可能有更多的上行空间，即使其中一些是内存业务的供应商，它们在绝对 terms 方面也不那么昂贵。当前的基本面相当不错。所以，我可能会在半导体设备领域停留更长的时间。然后，正如你所提到的，有直接收入受益者，英伟达、博通、AMD 等。而且我认为它们的倍数不会扩大。所以，如果你想拥有它们，你就是在说增长将足够好，以抵消倍数收缩。然后第四类，也是我现在最喜欢的一类，基于它们的表现和经济状况，是受工业影响的公司。Microchip、Texas Instruments、Analog Devices。这些股票今年以来实际上已经大幅上涨。它们是真正的高利润业务。而且我认为，一如既往，股票领先。所以你看到了 ISM 意外地上升。嗯，我们知道这一点，因为 Microchip 在一个月前就发布了预告，因为它们销售到那些工业终端市场。所以，我认为我正在更细致地分析半导体，而不是简单地说，嘿，一切都在飞涨，一切都与周期性相关。>> 所以，就你目前而言，市场显然是波动的，年初至今。我们今年可能持平，我们坐在这里，也许略有上涨，但你看到资金从科技股轮动。而你擅长的一件事是筛选高质量的股票和去的地方，被忽视的行业，无论是能源、工业还是其他什么。你现在看到了什么？你的筛选器告诉你什么，人们应该在哪里重新配置资金，如果他们打算从中撤出资金？>> 老实说，我最喜欢的行业是医疗保健。而且，你知道，我们可以把它分成无数个类别，但我会从大局开始，我们有很多人正在老龄化。他们需要服务、工具、诊断、医院、药物等等。许多医疗保健企业的利润率非常低。所以，如果人工智能能在预测员工和客户行为方面提供任何帮助，它将有助于提高利润率。所以我喜欢像 McKesson、Cardinal、CVS、Quest、Labcorp、Thermo 等股票，以及我认为需求将保持稳定的企业。医疗保健标准普尔 500 指数的收益已经连续 25 年每年都在增长。人们对这些服务的需求没有衰退。而且我认为估计的可实现性相当高。这是一个相当不错的并购行业，而且我喜欢它与人工智能交易不相关的事实。我认为最大的问题当然是，你知道，政府是许多公司的重要客户。很难下载 RFK Junior 的折扣，就像 has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has has 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