Transcription
If Marine Le Pen arrives currently, yes, we will obviously watch this reaction. You imagine her advancing towards the bar and I think she is living the most crucial moments, the most crucial hours of her political destiny. I speak under Marie's control. It is extremely fast. We did not expect this hearing to go like this. Declaration of guilt recognized at this moment by the court which confirms this judgment for Marine Le Pen. Guilty with Marine Pen guilty. But what penalty obviously because there it is really 1:50 PM, Marine Le Pen's political life is lived in this, is played out in where we are speaking with our special correspondents inside the courtroom who are telling us second by second what the president is announcing, both in terms of guilt and penalty. She is therefore declared guilty. That is the first brick. Let's recall the requisitions. 4 years in prison, including one suspended, with an electronic tag, 5 years of ineligibility and €100,000 fine. Will the requisitions be followed? Will the ineligibility be reduced? Will the imprisonment be reduced? The answer will be, pardon, the answer in a few seconds now. So again, the quantum of 2 years is absolutely capital. Above 2 years, it's very complicated. Below 2 years, obviously. So there is some argumentation. The court indicates that the instigator is more dangerous than the one who merely provides aid and assistance. The court took into account that it is up to a political leader to enforce the rules rather than break them. €100,000 fine, that is first and foremost the first brick of condemnation absolutely in line with the requisitions of 3 years, including 2 years suspended. So one year in prison. So one year in prison. So one year in prison and therefore one year to be served under house arrest, one year under electronic tag. One year under electronic tag, we know it now. We repeat it, a prison sentence of 3 years, including two suspended. Translation: 1 year under electronic tag. To understand what Marine Le Pen had said, she cannot campaign under electronic tag. I speak under Marie's control. Absolutely. That was her limit. Not campaigning under electronic tag as it stands. Let's remain cautious, we will have to hear it. Marine Le Pen will not be able to campaign and will not be able to be a candidate for the presidential election. There. If she sticks to what she said, Marine Le Pen cannot be a candidate for the presidential election since she has already said that she did not want to campaign under. The ineligibility is 45 months, including 30 months suspended. The Court considered that the penalty had already been served. So what does that mean? So let's take the time to calmly decipher what the president has just said. Ineligibility of 45 months, including 30 months suspended. The court considers that she has already served 15. That's what I understand. She has already served 15. There are 15 left since no, she has already served 15 since it ran until March 31st. So the court considers that the penalty has already been served. Should we therefore consider at this moment that Marine Le Pen can potentially campaign but only under electronic tag? Exactly. You understood, you understood. The ineligibility has already been served if we understand the president. On the other hand, she is declared guilty. She is declared guilty of 3 years in prison, including 1 year under electronic tag, and it was considered that she does not want to campaign under electronic tag. The campaign cannot start for Marine Le Pen. Was that categorical or not, Marie? Because now the last, the last time it was a bit more vague than the first time when she had said it on the microphone of Now the question arises. It is now that the question arises. Sophie Dupont who tells us in the courtroom, she is discussing right now with her lawyer, master Bosselu. Indeed, the question arises as to whether she can or cannot campaign, even though I hear Bruno's reservations on Thursday, but she still said and repeated that campaigning with an electronic tag was impossible for the viewers who are joining us again and for everything to be very clear, Marine Le Pen's ineligibility has been served. Yes, 45 months including 30 suspended. So there are 15 months of firm ineligibility left, but they are already served. The 15 months have elapsed, the ineligibility is running, she can run for election, but for 1 year she will have to wear an electronic tag, a prison sentence, and it is she who said that she did not want to campaign with a tag because one cannot imagine a potential president of the Republic in the Élysée with an electronic tag. That's it. The decision, the decision, pardon, which is quite diplomatic because it is not the court that prevents Marine Le Pen from running for the presidential election. It is she who decides that with an electronic tag, she cannot be a candidate, provided that she respects what she said to Marie Chantet, she said I cannot campaign and it is materially impossible to campaign, the campaign would be too complicated, there, I quote Sophie Dupont who follows her in all her movements. Now it is up to Marine Le Pen to decide whether or not she will be a candidate for the presidential election. An electronic tag and its consequences. These are hours of presence at home or outside. A presidential campaign by definition, these are almost daily movements outside your home, even abroad, in overseas territories. In this case, she said and repeated that it was not conceivable. Now, there are very close supporters who are not at all on this line and who told her that even if she were sentenced to an electronic tag, which is the case today, she should still go for it and that she was the natural candidate. To be sure I understand correctly. That is to say, under electronic tag, Marine, from now on, right away. Yes, it can be put on in the next few days, but detention, the electronic tag, it's not nothing. Okay. But so Marine Le Pen under electronic tag can potentially campaign for a year. In a year, it will be July 2027, the presidential election will be decided, and so potentially we could have a president of the Republic in the Élysée under electronic tag. We agree. Yes, absolutely. Let's imagine that this tag is put on within 10 days. We would be mid-July, perhaps by the end of July, you add 1 year. So we will be in July 2027. If she were a candidate and if she won the presidential election, it would mean a president with a tag. We do not command the decisions of justice, but it is indeed a flaw on the part of justice. Yes. But remember before the decision was made, you rightly asked the question, are the magistrates aware of the political climate and the democratic questions that would be raised? You have the answer? Yes, they made the decision not to prevent Marine Le Pen from being a candidate, and if she does not want to be, it is her decision. That is exactly it. You have anticipated my thoughts and my reasoning. That is to say, justice cannot be accused of preventing Marine Le Pen from running, but it leaves Marine Le Pen to decide her political future. Bruno, Bruno, I say, can we, well, I was going to say reasonably, I remove the word reasonably, can we imagine a presidential candidate under electronic tag elected next May also under electronic tag? Everything is possible on paper, she can perfectly be. Are they ready? Will it cause a problem? Well, the overall opinion of the French, I cannot say. In any case, we know that until now, they have been rather in agreement with the court decisions. They have always shown it, whether for the first instance decisions concerning Marine Le Pen or for example that of Nicolas Sarkozy. So, they are rather in agreement with the magistrates. So, the magistrates do not prevent Marine Le Pen, but they attach the electronic tag to her. It is up to Marine Le Pen. It is a political decision to make. Pardon, pardon Bruno, she cannot campaign. Technically, it is very complicated to campaign, but she can still campaign. She is not forbidden to leave her home. She is limited in her movements. She is limited in her movements. Especially the tag, pardon, there are schedules, so first of all, and it is very restrictive. That means there are schedules set by whom? Set by whom? By the justice system, by the application judge. So it is individualized. It is the judge of the application of penalties. Now, perhaps he will include the meeting times, but anyway, we are in a situation where we have to broaden the question. There is not only the question of the electronic tag. Can one be a candidate for the presidential election with a guilty verdict, a conviction for embezzlement of public funds with 3 years in prison, including two suspended, so one year in prison, and Pauline rightly said, the electronic tag is a deprivation of liberty. You have been declared guilty. You are not put in prison, but it is a form of detention unprecedented in the history of modern democracies. We are already in the unprecedented. There is also the other solution, which is that Marine Le Pen decides to appeal to the Court of Cassation. Until now, this was not an option that was considered, but she can also decide that, knowing that technically the Court of Cassation has said that it would consider it, but be careful, it would render its decision in January. Slowly, slowly. So if she appeals to the Court of Cassation, she has 10 days to do so. She has 10 days to do so. Okay. The Court of Cassation has committed to giving its decision on the appeal or not. Wait, wait, slowly. So, so that means that by January, the National Rally will not have a candidate. But this is not an option being considered. This is not an option being considered. For Marine Le Pen, this campaign must start as quickly as possible with a designated candidate. And Court of Cassation or not, she would wear this tag, a priori. Yes, but not necessarily if she appealed to the Court of Cassation, not necessarily a candidate. This evening's statement, and what we will also have to see, is whether she wishes, as it stands, it was not planned, but whether she wishes to speak or leave the courtroom. It is ultimately a Herculean choice because here, we are in a situation where she is not prevented from running, but under the constraint of the electronic tag, and she has been very clear about this. She said under electronic tag, I will not go. But she is encouraged by some, once again Christophe, to go for it even with a tag. Will she backtrack? I don't think so. I don't think so. Now, it is a choice, a possibility that is open to her, and that she faces. What is Laurent N? Yes, again in the analysis of this ruling, Laurent Neman, what is the, well, how do you analyze, well, the, how to say, the arguments of the president of the tribunal? First of all, we note that all the defendants are found guilty, as they were in the first instance, guilty of embezzlement of public funds. So, it is an extremely serious offense, let's be aware of it. Second, the sentences pronounced are in line with the sentences requested or in the first instance, with the exception of the ineligibility sentence, which is considerably reduced. And so we arrive at this situation, it is a scenario that we had not necessarily envisaged, where for Marine Le Pen, she can run since her ineligibility, her sentence has already been served. But on the other hand, and given a prison sentence, she must wear an electronic tag, and as Marie recalled earlier, this was one of the conditions she had set for running. Marie, how is Marine Le Pen reacting, because we have our reporters in the room facing her. of the importance of having Sophie Dupont Vassig on site, who describe a Marine Le Pen impassive, totally impassive, who continues to listen to the president's words, a few words with her lawyer, indeed master, master Boselu, when her sentence, hers, precisely fell, and supporters, we saw their faces, we saw Jean-Philippe Tangui, who have a somewhat dejected, twilight look at the quantum of penalties. I just wanted to add something about the placement of the tag. You asked me if she decides to appeal to the Court of Cassation, the tag is suspended, so she could campaign normally until January. Yes, but that means that Jordan Bardella's potential campaign, if she is prevented, would start in January, which is difficult, and be careful, this does not augur anything for the decision of the Court of Cassation. It is still an option that exists. I don't know if we should add it, because here we are in a situation where we were expecting the ineligibility to be reduced or not below 2 years. The tag, the tag was still more hypothetical, and here Vincentigem tells me that the truly capital sentence pronounced by the president is the following: "The court indicates that the instigator is more dangerous than the one who merely provides aid and assistance. The court also took into account that it is up to a political leader to enforce the rules rather than break them." Yes, in short, it is Marine Le Pen, and before her her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who are at the origin of an organization, a system, as the judges said in the first instance, a system that led to the embezzlement of public funds. But I return to what you were saying just before. Today, there can be a plan B. If Marine Le Pen does not run, she can pass the torch to Jordan Bardella. But in January, if the Court of Cassation does not rule in her favor, there is no more change possible. The campaign accounts are filed, and so it becomes almost impossible to switch, if you allow me that word, and to change candidates 3 months before the presidential election. So she has to make this choice. Yes, absolutely. And by her own hand. It is the choice, in fact, that is constrained. There is no possibility, according to what you are saying. There is still another possibility, which is, I believe, I speak under Pauline's control, is the remission of sentences for the tag. This does happen sometimes. That is to say, sometimes a year can turn into 6 months. I believe Nicolas Sarkozy had that, a sentence. Was it related to his age, Sarkozy too? Yes, he was 70 years old, he had requested an adjustment, but we need to see if there are any possible adjustments. When we say one year, can there be results? That is a real question. That is to say, she can go and explain to the judges of the application of penalties. I intend to campaign, can you adapt? There is a discussion anyway with the judge of the application of penalties who will summon Madame Le Pen and who will give her her conditions for this tag, and she herself, initially, she does not discuss, but then she can request an adjustment. We will see at that time, I don't know, for now it is very complicated, in any case, everything is in her hands, and we think that she must be thinking very quickly with her lawyer. I think that for those who are joining us, we must recall the conviction of Marine Le Pen, word for word. Would you be willing to read it all again, Pauline Revenard? So Marine Le Pen found guilty. So Marine Le Pen found guilty. Wait, I will be extremely precise. So sentenced to 3 years in prison. 3 years. So the ineligibility is served. There were 45 months, there are 30 that have been served. So in fact, that's good. The ineligibility is settled, she is found guilty. It was 30 suspended. Yes, 30 suspended and the. So this idea, it is settled. Then, she is found guilty of embezzlement of public funds, and that's where Laurent, you will help me. In addition, there is a €100,000 fine, 3 years in prison, including two suspended, so one year in prison, one year in prison, to be served under house arrest with an electronic tag, and because we are asking ourselves the question, Bruno asked it, can an adjustment be obtained, that is to say, a reduction of the sentence? Vincent Ventigem tells us at this moment, no, the tag is already in itself an adjustment of the sentence. In order not to go to prison, your prison sentence is adjusted via an electronic tag, and to recall, of course, that Marine Le Pen had said that in case of conviction and wearing an electronic tag, she would not go, well, Marie told you, but Vincent completes well that she can have sentence reduction credits for good behavior, and that would bring it down to 6 months if she doesn't misbehave, so one year equals about 6 months, but 6 months is manageable, Marie. 6 months is early January. It's early, it's early January, and I think again, let's wait and see how these next few hours go, but several of her supporters who want her to be the candidate will push in that direction, and that's why this evening's statement will be decisive. My reading is that she can perfectly run today. Simply, it is a personal choice she has to make. First, to make this request for credit for adjustment of wearing the electronic tag, and above all, to make the public understand that it would only be from January that she would no longer have this electronic tag. So it is also how public opinion will perceive all of this. However, she has little time to make this decision. So it is indeed a very important decision. We know that I think when Marine Le Pen spoke to Marie, it was last March, it was a firm and definitive no. No, firm and definitive. I found that in her recent statements, it was a little less, it seemed a little less definitive. Again, it's an assessment. So because there is pressure around Marine Le Pen. Obviously, her loved ones have considered a possible scenario of the electronic tag that could prevent her in a certain way. After that, it's a discussion, I would say, in the end, between Marine Le Pen and Marine Le Pen, in fact, to be clear, Marine Le Pen, she can run under electronic tag even though she said she would not go with a tag. Can we summarize it like that? And I add, and I add that wearing the tag can be adjusted, that's it, and reduced to 6 months. It is a possibility that the judge of the application of penalties decides. But that means her behavior. A candidate with an electronic tag and a candidate potentially elected to the Élysée with the weight of a conviction on her shoulders for embezzlement of public funds. Dishonesty, the judges place her at the top of a system that has misappropriated public money. That is a moral stain, if one can say so. Can we really, it's an existential question. Can one declare oneself a candidate when one is found guilty of embezzlement of public funds? That is indeed the question, and it is indeed the voters who will decide. Laurent Neman, knowing political life by heart for so many years. Will Marine Le Pen keep her word, pronounced on Marie Chantre's microphone, not to run if she is placed under electronic tag, or will she decide otherwise? I wouldn't want to be in her place. I think her brain must be boiling right now because it is a decision that actually engages her career, what she has been fighting for for years. And so indeed, and this is where this decision by the magistrates is of formidable skill, because in fact, it is not the judges who prevent her from running. It is up to her to make the decision to go for it or not. And the hearing is adjourned, we will see them all leave. Marie, we must not be naive either. They prepared for all scenarios, even this one, which was undoubtedly one of the least probable. Did they prepare for this case? Frankly, I think so, I think so, and her counsel, her lawyer, indeed must have discussed this scenario precisely. The hearing is adjourned, we will see Marine Le Pen leave this courtroom. The rest of the day is known. She will join Jordan Bardella at the National Rally headquarters, and there will undoubtedly begin a very long meeting on the strategy to adopt. What will be her words at the end of the day? Because again, legally, Marine Le Pen can run for the presidential election, but with an electronic tag. An appeal ruling that lasted 4 hours, much faster than expected. No, but that's good, everything has been said. But everything, there are many surprises, since the beginning of this whole story, that is to say, lighter sentences overall, including for Marine Le Pen, the electronic tag was practically, well, it was possible, but it is also a part of surprise, and now the next step, perhaps a surprise, because frankly, Marine Le Pen is put up against the wall of her own initial decision of March 2026 on BFM TV, which she repeated with more or less force, and obviously her loved ones will tell her that it is possible to run. Technically, technically yes, but it is up to her to make the ultimate decision. Exactly, and that refers to what Marine Le Pen is today. Does she really want to be a candidate for the 4th time in the presidential election? I deeply believe that from all these interviews, the relaxation she showed in recent orders, has shown in Marine Le Pen, in my opinion, knowing her for many years, I find that one wonders if she really wants it, especially since she is very happy to have her plan B, even if he is only 31 years old. Even if he is only 31 years old, and she always says, if I take a bullet, someone will stand up, and justice will never prevent the National Rally from reaching its goal. Bruno, I understand your arguments perfectly, but I do not share them entirely, because I think she wants it, that she is ready. She says it every time, I will not be dead. On the other hand, on the other hand, this sentence of one year under electronic tag, if she were to go back on it, it would be to backtrack on everything she has said and formulated for many months, which contradicts what she denounces in all her political opponents who say one thing on platforms and four months later say the complete opposite. And that is an argument that, I think, carries weight with her. Yeah.