Инвестиции 2025: куда инвестировать предпринимателю, чтобы заработать больше — план Андрея Мовчана

One of the biggest disappointments that a cheerful, energetic entrepreneur with ambitions can experience is to start a business and hit a market ceiling. When you set a goal of, say, 20% annual return, you are actually just pretending to manage. You are simply throwing darts at a wall and waiting, so to speak, for something to stick. In my opinion, the right way to run the most successful business is to still share the risks in it, including, for example, taking on borrowed capital. A state of high growth speed is always a state of very high risk. If profit is earned, it must be diversified. You need to bring someone else into the yoke with you, so that you have at least a couple more pairs of eyes that are afraid that you will lose money. This is a very important pair of eyes. There is a saying: it is better to lose with a smart person than to find with a fool.

Hello friends. Today I have Andrey Movchan as my guest. He is a financier, investor, and founder of the Movchan's group of companies. And he is a person whose podcast on YouTube I follow with great interest. I can't say that I understand everything there, but I watch the videos with great interest, listening to his opinion on what is happening in the fields of finance and economics. Last year, there was an absolutely amazing cycle of videos about the economies of various countries, with deep analysis and forecasts. So, if you are also interested in this, be sure to subscribe to his channel, watch it, and definitely check out those old videos. It seems to me that for entrepreneurs who work in different countries, this is exceptionally valuable. And today Andrey kindly agreed to participate in our conversation, and I am going to ask him a few questions.

Good day. Thank you. It is an honor for me. Moreover, I am also going to ask a few questions, yes, in the second part of our conversation. So thank you for agreeing. Thank you.

So, well, let's get started. Background, you have a background from the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics at Moscow State University, the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics, yes, the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics, and this is a very engineering, very, let's say, understandable field. I am, by the way, a radio electronics engineer by education, a military radio engineer, so this is a very engineering field from my point of view. What is happening in your professional field, in finance, is very strongly connected with emotions and PR. Let me explain. I once read, not listened live, but read notes from George Soros's lectures in Budapest. He, I believe, gave a series of lectures there. He considers himself a philosopher. I read those notes. I liked one idea there, as I understood it, that financial markets are largely driven, let's say, by people's expectations, which are not always based on rational things. In other words, if you make people believe in some idea, it will have an influence. How, so to speak, what is the role, let's say, of your fundamental engineering education and scientific analytical approach, and this part?

Well, look, the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics at Moscow State University, yes, the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics – this is advanced mathematics and applied physics, in fact. By the way, I also served two years of compulsory military service. And at first, the officers started actively asking me to advise them on which fur coat to buy for their wives. That's an interesting, unexpected turn. Yes, at first I was amazed by this, and then I found out that they interpreted the entry in my personal file about the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics as the Faculty of Fur Materials. So, you see, one can have different attitudes towards this educational institution.

And I didn't connect A and B, damn. Well, generally speaking, this is fundamental mathematics, applied physics – this is a great science. And usually, if we couldn't solve something quickly, they would tell us: "What are you, as engineers, not understanding anything?" So they deliberately distanced us from the concept of engineering. We were engaged in big, beautiful theory. It was amusing, interesting. I enrolled there when I was 17 years old. Consequently, I didn't understand what I wanted yet. My father, a great physicist, said: "To the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics," and I went to the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics. Yes, as for what I was actually much more interested in, say, computer systems or managing people in general, yes, systems management, that turned out later. I, in fact, have done very little mathematics in my life in reality.

And so, they taught us to think. They constantly told us: "We are teaching you to think, think, think, think, think, think." And understanding advanced mathematics gives a very different view of the world. Yes, in particular, game theory is a mathematical theory. Game theory actually describes society, yes, the behavior of society, including investment society – it's a big mathematical theory, chaos theory, a relatively new mathematical theory, very applied, very large, which, in general, understanding it allows you to look at many processes completely differently, even in investment markets. Very often, when people ask me: "But it's falling, right? Why?" I answer them: "Not why, right? This is, so to speak, an application of chaos theory, right. Trends form in this chaos, they form chaotically, randomly. They can be there. Make a simulation of an absolutely random number generator, and on the fifth or twenty-fifth try, you will get exactly the curve you see now. Yes, it is absolutely random. Many people do not understand this. People who have not studied serious mathematics, as a rule, live in a deeply deterministic world in their minds with simple dependencies, yes, with very clear ones, yes. Where does religion come from? Yes, from the fact that a person has hyper-determinism in their brain, they need a simple, understandable explanation. Yes, a person needs an explanation, and if something happens, there must be some simple, understandable reason for it. God of rain, wind, and everything else. Absolutely.

When you delve into serious mathematics and quantum physics, when you delve into it, you begin to understand that it is not at all like that, yes, there are a huge number of processes that occur without, so to speak, a cause for their randomness, yes, some Feigenbaum equations, yes, they can give absolute chaos, or they can give a very precise curve, depending on what fraction of a percent the parameter has changed. And that's it.

I have no idea what you are talking about now, but to summarize this idea, it helps from the perspective of, say, trained ability to understand complex processes, it helps you navigate in the field of finance. It helps to understand complex processes and, most importantly, to abandon false explanations, because you are trained to abandon false explanations. And this is practically helpful. For example, we have, I believe, our best investment product, which has a Sharpe ratio of around five.

What is a Sharpe ratio of five? Ah, okay. It's the ratio of return to risk. And it is considered that if the Sharpe ratio is one, it is a good product. Our Sharpe ratio is about five, meaning it's five times better than a good product. For something like 260 or 270 weeks of operation, it has not been unprofitable for a single week.

This product is made absolutely mathematically. That is, we just sat down, I have a very good colleague and partner, a very experienced trader, with thirty years of trading experience. We sat down, looked at the market, and started looking for some mathematical niches where we could penetrate and do something serious. We found them, calculated them, built a model, built a system. And now it's working.

So, this product, it's a product for yourself, for clients, do they somehow get access to it? Those who invest in your companies. Yes, of course. Our company is for clients.

Again, the scheme here is very simple. We receive a commission for managing client money. And since my money now constitutes, I don't know, 3-4, maybe 5, well, less than 5% of the total volume of money under management, it's clear that the commissions are substantial, and I earn. Profit in this company is also important to me as a business. Scaling allows for successful business.

Okay. I'll ask right away then. You know, my target audience, my audience on YouTube, are entrepreneurs and managers. The question is very simple. To use your products, to invest in your companies, what is the entry threshold? Formally, by license, it's $100,000 or other hard currency. That's how strangely the license is structured. Informally, of course. We try to take not less than half a million or a million dollars.

So, half a million dollars, is that a one-time payment, or does a person subscribe to some program and gradually, because for, say, my target audience, it's usually comfortable, normal – to allocate a part of their annual income, say, about 20%, to invest in relatively calm, not very risky instruments. And, accordingly, for our clients, I think it will be on average from $100,000 to $200,000 per year. Let's put it this way. From $100,000, we will be welcoming. We will be welcoming. So, a client will receive our full service, they will get access to all our products, if they come and say: "I really want to, I have $100,000." So, from a million, we will love you.

Okay. And somewhere from $5 million, you will have special conditions, lower commissions, more opportunities, and so on. Somewhere from $20-25 million, we will negotiate with you, because you will be a VIP with whom we will work as a partner, and we can do more complex things, work on your accounts, work more flexibly, and so on.

Well, it's good that you've explained all this, because I was a bit modest, in relation to our clients and our target audience. We have completely different people there. I respect and love you very much for your amazing practical point of view. I would like more of my followers to look at you and listen. You know, I think it's very important to say, before they start watching, listening, and deciding whether to invest with us or not, that we are still focused on conservative products for one reason, perhaps. It's not very obvious, but it exists. The fact is that the more you increase investment risk, the less depends on you. No matter how brilliant a manager you are. And when you set a goal of, say, 20% annual return, you are actually just pretending to manage. You are just, so to speak, throwing darts at the wall and waiting, so to speak, for something to stick.

I really like how you explain it. Very simply. I really like these metaphors. And I, by the way, completely agree with this. I mainly work on the business side, on the business growth side. But honestly, a state of high growth speed is always a state of very high risk, of course. And when you run your own business, so to speak, the returns are much higher. Why? Because, so to speak, there are taxes on dividends, capital gains taxes, then there are huge risks of your own business. Of course, of course, there is no diversification. You are responsible for it, you work around the clock. Yes, it's strange to assume that you have now taken money, given it to someone to invest. Your risks are significantly reduced, and you earn the same amount. No, it doesn't work like that, of course. Of course.

That's why people come to us, right? The usual trajectory of people who come to us looks like this. They earn money, they are the smartest, they are the most successful, they are very cool, they know best what to do. They start investing, they start with what a friend advised, with what they read, with what will definitely bring 100% annual return. Of course, they lose money, they become more cautious, they start to fear everyone. Now they definitely won't give anything to anyone. Well, now you can't invest anywhere, right? You sit like this. They started sitting in Treasuries, bought long-term Treasuries. Long-term Treasuries, as we know, have halved in price over the last 10 years, right? They lost money there, they went and bought real estate. Real estate, because nothing ever disappears in real estate. Never, right? So they had problems with the market, with liquidity, with taxes, with restrictions, with the ability to rent it out, with bad tenants, with vacancies between tenants, with building repairs, right? They bought real estate 10 years ago, and after 10 years it turned out that no one needed it because it was outdated, for example, or they fell victim to fraud. There are many such stories with real estate. So these people come to us and say: "Oh, great, how much do you have, 5-10% per year? So what? And what's the average?" Yes. And the average is like seven. Great, fantastic. We want this. We don't want anything else. Even four would be fine. But the main thing is that we understand that it is reliable, calm, transparent, convenient. You can withdraw money once a week without any restrictions, right, from the fund.

But four is around inflation? It's around inflation now, yes? Tomorrow it will be much higher. And the day before yesterday it was much higher. This thing fluctuates, right? Historically, inflation was around 3% for the dollar. So, not everyone will suit this. For those who haven't tried everything else, someone, I think, said about Americans that Americans are wonderful people, they always find the right solutions after trying everything else. Well, I think that's a good phrase. It's more about the entrepreneurial spirit, not just Americans. It's inherent in everyone.

So, an investor who hasn't yet understood how dangerous venture investing is, how easily you can be cheated in the world of private equity, how tricky real estate is, right, he usually looks at us and says: "Why do I need this?" Well, and the one who hasn't yet tasted the aftermath of operations with all this. Because when you are directly involved in managing your own money, you encounter a lot of additional interesting activities, especially if you try to invest in real estate, somewhere else, and so on. So you have to keep track of all this. And it's quite an adventure. Of course, of course, of course. We try to convince such people, like, new to the market, that some part should be put away conservatively. Many succeed, many do not. People who have tried, as a rule, understand this themselves perfectly. We generally say: "Well, so to speak, invest everywhere you want. If you have money left, bring it to me. Well, something should remain in the end."

Well, I even mean, now you have invested, say, $5 million, four of which in venture. Well, a million is left. Bring it to us just in case. Yes, thank you. That's a very good intro, and I agree from that perspective. Not only from my own experience. I have my own very small experience, but from the experience of many of our clients. Because what I see is that a person starts earning. Earns well. First, they cover some of their life needs, desires, buy toys they've dreamed of for a long time. Then, something still remains. They realize that, well, perhaps now is a good market phase for their business, like logistics a few years ago, something shoots up, or for those involved in construction, another hurricane season in Florida has passed powerfully, meaning they earned a lot of money. They need to do something with this pile. And the first thought that really arises, at least among entrepreneurs at our Business Booster accelerator, is real estate. Of course, real estate, which always grows, with which everything is always wonderful.

When I first arrived in New York, 10 years ago, I met a person, one of my friends, his name is Albert, and at one time he had a business, he's been in America for 40 years, a German from Germany, and he started a company that sold books at retail even before the dot-com era. So, he already had a large company at that time, when the dot-coms started, he created one of the first websites for selling books online, since he already had all the logistics. Then a strange small company, Amazon, approached him and offered to buy his website. He wanted more, he wanted cash. They offered stock. He sold this company, this entire business for $70 million in cash. He didn't sell to Amazon for stock. Now, naturally, he regrets it very much. He still has a ban on his profession. And then, since he had a lot of money, as they say, he bought himself a beautiful house in Long Island. He bought himself a magnificent apartment on Third Avenue, a beautiful one. And this was in 2005. So, if we go to Zillow or something and look at how the value of this house in Long Island and this apartment on Third Avenue has changed, we will discover a wonderful thing. It hasn't changed, perhaps it has even fallen over these amazing incredible 20 years.

Listen, there's nothing surprising about this if you look at London. London has always been considered a place, central London, yes, London real estate was considered very expensive, very prestigious, always growing. If you look at the dollar price of the best real estate properties in London over the last 15 years, it has fallen by 40-50% in dollar terms, yes, because the pound has fallen significantly, prices have stagnated, and all these people who bought palaces here for, I don't know, 5 million pounds and above, they have all lost money in dollars. And at the same time, they have been paying, of course, council taxes for maintenance. And all this needs to be repaired again, because 15 years have passed and so on, and so on.

I have very good acquaintances, friends, colleagues in America who came to America 20 years ago and came up with a business with Multi-Family Apartments. So they did leverage financing, they took investors' money, they took loans. Loans cost, I remember, I was credited at 0.6% per annum at that time, yes? Loans, so to speak, cost nothing. They bought, did refurbishment, re-rented these apartments, and as these complexes became more expensive, and all this was very good. Until it stopped. And when it stopped, I'm talking to them now, they say: "Well, look, the situation is this, people are invested, it's impossible to sell these complexes." Simply no, no one is buying these complexes now. They generate cash flow, which is completely eaten up by new interest.

And it's good if the cash flow is sufficient, and it's unclear what to do with it, right? Because when there were wonderful times, they made money from it, they took management fees, they took performance fees, they were in complete bliss. Now they are literally thinking about what to do, because it's easy for them, they are agents, right, they will do something else, but those investors whom they put in there, they cannot get their money out. Cash flow is zero at best, in fact. And the prospects are unclear, because these apartments still need to be maintained. They still need to be repaired. Their requirements will be different in 5 years. So this is about how it's not just what sometimes seems eternal and simple.

Ah, absolutely agree with you. But this is the first thing that comes to an entrepreneur's mind. What's good about this? So, of course, when you look at it as an analyst and financier, it probably seems like madness, to put it mildly. And I understand that. But I can tell you, there's a cool thing about it. Very often, it's only in this way that people develop the discipline to save something. Very often. So for many, it's surprising, for me it was such a big discovery. And it took me time to come to terms with the idea that it's a cool thing to take out a loan for some real estate, residential or commercial, to take out a mortgage and pay it off every month. Well, we engineers were also taught mathematics quite well. Therefore, mathematically speaking, it's a very strange thing as an investment. But what I discovered is that many people simply cannot force themselves to save anything at all. Unless they receive a bill every month, you have to pay the mortgage, otherwise they will take something away from you. This stimulates them, perhaps.

But here's what I think is also very important to understand: when we talk about value investments, this value is very different, depending on whether you are investing to earn or to use. When a person buys a house. No, I'm not considering it for myself now, as for myself, it's a different story. It's a story of toys, providing life, comfort, yes. But if you buy a house to rent it out, to lease it, then, generally speaking, it's a rather dangerous game with stakes. It's all a game of interest rates. It resembles, let's say, high-risk fixed income in this game, right? Moreover, if you take out a mortgage, it means you have leveraged fixed income, of course. And such a spike in rates, for example, can simply knock you out. It's easier in America because you have long fixes, right? In Europe, fixes are very short. And therefore, over the last 3 years, we have seen serious real estate funds in Europe go bankrupt. They close, stop giving money to investors, lose 50%, anything, because, so to speak, the rate change happened and their entire economy went to hell, right? And at the same time, the value has also fallen because of this.

Well, we have long fixes, but if we look at today's market, I don't know the entire market, but the area where I live is Miami, and there is no point in renting out residential real estate there. Simply none. Mathematically, nothing adds up with anything, in principle. And even when you look at the prospects, it's even difficult to answer the question, what should change mathematically in these rates, percentages, and so on for this to start adding up. So there isn't even an answer to that question.

I just wanted to say one thing: the first thing that usually comes to an entrepreneur's mind when they earn at least something is real estate. Next, I completely agree with you, the next observation is, I call it going all out. Here the options are simply amazing, starting, of course, with cryptocurrencies, because, as everyone knows, it's the best, fastest way to earn a lot, a lot of money, potentially, including investments in some random startups. Petya came. Exclusive access to early investing, a completely amazing idea that is bound to take off, and you become, let's say, a key leader, investor, the only one, most likely, in principle, because no one else will go there. And all this continues. Then they need more money, this continues for some amount of time. But how much patience, spirit do you have, and how large is your current income, how long will you drag this dead horse by the tail? And only after that, after some such iterations, comes the realization that, perhaps, after all, this is some kind of professional field, perhaps there is something there. And at this moment, if I am asked questions about what to do, for example, I want to invest, I have money, I want to invest in startups or I want to invest in more conservative instruments, I always say one thing: go and find smart people who manage funds, and bring your money there.

So, even the situation is a bit worse. First of all, you need to understand that you can always be lucky. Anything can happen in life. And this is even worse, in fact. And these cases of luck, they spread among the public, and the public only knows about them, thinking that it's always like that. I'll tell you more. Even if we are talking about some private conversation, when someone talks about their investment experience, well, people are structured in such a way that it's unpleasant for us to talk about stories where we completely screwed up, like, a complete failure and so on, right? Because it's just not social, it's not polite, it's like spreading bad news and upsetting people. As social beings, we tend to talk about pleasant, good, interesting, exciting, titillating things. And of course, from all our experiences over x years, we choose the example where we still earned money, and we talk about it. And this is how it happens socially. Of course, of course.

And at the same time, you need to understand that in the field of, say, startups, the structure is very simple. Yes, how to say, now teenagers write 80/20, right? In England, that 80% of women are attracted by 20% of men. So, startups, because there is a lot of supply and demand, it's a big market, any startup founder wants to get the maximum from the investor. He needs the best possible investor. In this sense, he acts biologically, so to speak, like a female. Right. And then there is simply an obvious, absolute competition between the quality of money. If you are, I don't know, an entrepreneur from Oklahoma who has earned money, and you want to invest in a startup, or from Ryazan, in this case, it doesn't matter, the quality of your money is minimal. You are at the very bottom, because you can't give anything but a buck, right? But an entrepreneur who thinks at least a little about making a good business, he already needs, so to speak, an exit into the community, he needs advice from, so to speak, those who provide money, he needs additional money, he needs an exit for sale later, so that these people have contacts.

He needs a name in order to develop himself, so that this one invested in me, and they are cool, they don't make mistakes, yes, absolutely. And in this sense, if Vasya came to you and said: "I have an awesome startup," then, by and large, he should be kicked out, because why did he come to you if he has an awesome startup, let him go to Sequoia Capital. Absolutely, they have plenty of money. They are looking too, and these are looking, and those are looking. And therefore, even if it's not about the expertise of a large serious fund, but about the fact that they are a large, serious fund, that they will bring others, that they will advise, that they will take it to IPO or take it to sale, that they will give their label, and even if they are not actually good at selecting startups, they will still have a selection of good startups. Well, they will have, firstly, a selection, and secondly, even the fact that this large, reputable fund, which all other venture investors look at with bated breath, has invested in this particular startup, already gives this startup an unfair advantage over similar ones. Of course, therefore, if you go alone or if you think that you are discussing startups in a community of people like yourself, then you need to understand that your choice is not very rich, because, well, either you have to invest 10 times more than the value, but then you will lose money from this, or you simply will not get good investments. If we look at successful venture entrepreneurs, for example, the same Russian, or rather Russian-speaking ones, there are incredible successes there, yes, there, I don't know, some Boguslavsky, yes, there, then they did it when and when they had a closed niche, where no one could come and all the best startups needed money and no one else's. And when they start to enter the huge global arena, where they compete with everyone else, then they quietly finish their successes of previous years. And, in general, nothing much happens further. And this, unfortunately, is a law of nature, yes, you can't escape it. Therefore, if you want to invest in ventures successfully, not by chance, I'm not even talking about cycles now, because now it's venture winter, yes, but if you want to earn on ventures not by chance during venture spring, you need to somehow get to the big, strong players and give them your money. And they are also very picky, they are compliant, they don't take small money, they are also interested in having a good investment pool, they go to pension funds and so on, and so on. Well yes, pension funds, their expectations are much more moderate, I think, on the one hand, and on the other hand, they have a name, and they can give as much money as needed and so on. So this is not a game in which you can accidentally earn a lot of money. Thank you. Question. Look, we drew the trajectory curve, right, what's happening. I'm talking about our fellow entrepreneurs who started earning two or three times more than they consume at some point, for which, by the way, respect. Well done. What would be a reasonable trajectory for such a person? That is, I found out that, for example, I earn half a million dollars a year, conditionally, and spend 150-200 thousand. And I have left, yes, while, naturally, I reinvest in my business. I say: "I earn." This means the money that I personally, personally took for myself. And I have this cushion left. Naturally, I have a set of these primitive decision curves. Buy and rent out more real estate and all that, which is not correct. What trajectory would be more rational for a person who is engaged in business. This means that this person has all his main creativity and all his main expertise in a certain industry, in a certain type of business. He has enough headaches from morning to evening, yes, he has time to watch some smart videos, maybe read some books, maybe occasionally listen to some lectures. But this time is quite limited, because after all, for him, the main mission and main activity is his business. You know, I would say two things here. First, it seems very important to me that the logic "I invest everything I need in my business, and what's left, well, let's talk about it," is also incorrect, because your business, however wonderful it may be, is a big risk. This is a separate topic. Let's talk about it a little later. This is a good, interesting topic. After we talk about how to invest in your business, right, and how to diversify, what's left, right? Yes. Further, actually, I will say a blasphemous thing. It's a matter of a person's desire, a matter of how he sees his future, a matter of how risk-averse or risk-leaning he is. I think it also depends on what stage of the trajectory he is on, the business trajectory, because people who are, say, from 30 to 40 and the business is growing well, they most likely have a high tolerance for risk and so on. People who move further, understanding that in another 10-20 years, it's the end of their business career, and they want to sit somewhere pleasant and read a book, they might have a lower tolerance for risk, they need more stable things, of course, but it's generally individual here. All people who try to sell, especially, yes, or give free advice on how much and how to save, they are in a sense gaslighting, yes, that is, they decide for another person how he should actually live, without any basis. There are people like me, for example, yes, very conservative by nature. I never invested in cryptocurrencies, for example, yes, because I understand that I could probably earn a lot there, but I, so to speak, I have money, I believe that I should understand that I have it, I earn above inflation stably, yes, and that's enough for me. There are people who love to take risks very much. They are ready to lose, honestly ready to lose money. They lose money very often. Well, that's fine, yes. It's their right, for example, there are people who plan to work until 80. There are people who want to retire at 40. There are even those who want to retire at 35. I am surprised by these people, what are you going to do at all? Of course, of course. Therefore, if I am asked about such a thing, I always tell them: "Make a simple Excel spreadsheet with inflation taken into account, with the fall in the value of money, purchasing power taken into account. Make a line for the year, conditionally speaking, so to speak, income, savings, income on these savings, which you consider necessary to include. Analyze the risks, calculate up to, so to speak, how much you want to live, conditionally speaking, and how much you want to leave. Look at the numbers, yes, and you will understand, in fact, what you need to do more or less." Damn it, that's amazing, because even in my program there is such a task to look 40 years ahead, taking into account what kind of life you want to live, what obligations you have or what obligations you want to take on, to look at all this, calculate it in money taking into account inflation, what your current income should be, taking into account some average moderate return, calculate what capital you need for this, absolutely. Well, maybe a little more complicated, because you can add your income along the way, you can take risks into account somewhere, calculate scenarios, yes? What if it happens like this, and what if it happens like this, and what if it happens like this, inflation, I must say, it is very difficult for a person to understand simple interest and compound interest in their head, yes? And therefore, when you calculate inflation with such a table, it surprises people very much. They don't expect such an effect. They think, if today I spend, say, 200,000 dollars a year, then in 40 years I will spend a million. That can't be, right? And therefore, this exercise is extremely useful for understanding what is happening. It must be done, of course. Yes, I completely agree that perhaps the most eye-opening thing is to calculate all this and see it directly in numbers, to try to feel it directly. By the way, there are several outcomes from this. One of them is that someone says: "Wow, how much money I need." But I have met quite a few people who looked at this and said: "Wow, so I don't really need anything special. I have almost everything." Here I would say that the more a person says: "I have almost everything," the more conservative he should become at that moment. So this is the very point that determines what a person should strive for? For conservative investments or some high-risk, but potentially very, very profitable ones? Look, my opinion is very subjective. I don't claim to be the truth, but I believe that a person who says how much I lack should focus on earning, on creating value. Not through investments, but through their business, through their activities. That's an interesting point. Let's talk about that. I have always been and remain a supporter of the idea that the biggest return on investment you can get is when you invest in your own business. In essence, if you look at all mass investment tools, like the stock market, right, then anyone, any grandmother can buy stocks or, well, some mass instruments, then, in essence, these are primarily tools for those who do not have their own business, who cannot invest the maximum of their money, energy, in the development of their company, or these are tools for those for whom it is a side hustle. That is, they have already earned and they want to diversify, so to speak. That's pretty much it. If we are talking about entrepreneurs, especially entrepreneurs who are in some golden phase of their company's development, when there are still prospects, when the market allows for growth, when there is potential, when there is current profitability, then it is foolish for entrepreneurs not to reinvest money in the business that brings them money. Look, I completely agree that it is foolish not to reinvest in the business. The question is, how much? Well, in fact, investment theory is mathematics, right? There is nothing invented there, except for the mathematical apparatus. But there is an understanding of the so-called market curve, right? Why it's a curve and not a straight line, I'll explain now. If you invest in an asset that has a certain risk and a certain return, right, and in a second asset that has a different risk and a different return by half, then the return of your portfolio will be the arithmetic mean. This is more or less obvious, and the risk of your portfolio will be much less than the arithmetic mean, because these assets are not correlated, they can move in different directions. The entire theory of diversification is based on this. In fact, when you, say, buy, I don't know, a bond and a stock, you get not average risk, average return, but average return and significantly less risk. The same applies to business. Business, in general, your own business. It, however well it is built, is a big risk. It's a big risk because at a minimum you can die, or your main technologist can get hit by a car, or the state can change regulations or laws, or some super well-funded competitor can come. You have just read the first lines from a multi-volume edition called business risks. Yes. So that it looks nice, I can give you an example of a country-sized one. So, the Persian Gulf countries, the United Arab Emirates, yes, all these countries, they were very rich at the end of the 19th century, and there was no oil. And they were very rich. Why? Because in the Persian Gulf, there is the best pearl in the world. They mined pearls, they sold pearls all over the world. It was a magnificent business. And in the town called Dubai, there was such a small town, the fishing village of Dubai, there were more than 600 boats that mined pearls. A boat that mined pearls is not a dinghy. It's a ship that did it. So, and then around 1900, I think, in the ninth year, a Japanese chemist invented how to grow artificial pearls. Do you know how many pearl mining boats there were in Dubai in 1917? Two. That's what happens to business, yes? This is not at the level of a small enterprise that can be closed by sanitary inspection, right? This is at the regional level, of course, at the level of economic relations developed over centuries, yes, and we see this in business all the time. And it's not the fault of the people who do business. It's just, well, the world, the world is huge, the world is vast. You are always, so to speak, yes, you are always a price taker in this world. You can't escape it. Therefore, I would say that in my opinion, the right way to do the most successful business is still to share risks in it, including, for example, taking borrowed capital. Thus, you share risks with those who give you borrowed capital, including taking equity capital. You share risks with other shareholders, yes, of course. And in parallel, in parallel, using your income, form an absolutely diversified portfolio that will, say, beat inflation, that will preserve value, that will bring you income above inflation, that will be as uncorrelated as possible from the risks of your business. And this is a reasonable, stable position. Well, that is, a good, correct attitude to income in your own business as a high-risk, high-return asset, but it is not the only asset that should be in your portfolio, definitely. That is, there should be much more different ones, let's say, if it is the only asset in your portfolio, then it is a huge risk, yes, especially if it is not agile enough, as they like to say now, that is, not very flexible, that is, you cannot switch. Today, today, I think almost everything can be said to be not agile enough. The world, indeed, the world is moving very fast, today many businesses that seemed eternal are now becoming obsolete, because technologies are changing, logic is changing, political situations are changing, taxes are changing, the financial situation is changing very much. So here, of course, look, yes, what successful businesses were done, for example, cross-border with Russia. Magnificent businesses, excellently structured, and then, so to speak, February 24th came and sanctions. Yes, I always told my friends, clients, subscribers that yes, AI is coming now, and we are trying to be ahead of the world in relation to this, but there are businesses that are completely AI-protected, I don't know, home services of all kinds, cleaning, repairs, roofs, and so on. In fact, I was absolutely wrong, because recently a client came to me, and I was talking to him downstairs, sitting in the lounge, smoking a cigar, and he complained that I need to move out, I bought a new apartment, and I had to move out of the old one, and there it needs to be cleaned and, well, so to speak, do such a deep cleaning. He says: "Oh, and I just, we just implemented an AI receptionist on our CRM. Let you test it." I say: "Let's." And I, so to speak, dial the number, a pleasant female voice answers me. I, naturally, try to interrupt her, speak with an accent, with some stupid fragmented phrases, in order to place this order. Damn it, this AI breaks through all this magnificently, handles all this magnificently. I bargain with him, he gives me a discount, sends me. Yes, it was just terrible. That is, I had such a cool experience that I was shocked. And what does this guy do? That is, he is actually disrupting a whole market today, because thanks to this good marketing, good marketing funnels, AI, which quickly, instantly processes all these orders, working in the same way with hired cleaners, so to speak. That is, one person with a good CRM, with good automation, replaces entire companies today and earns. That is, he has almost unlimited resources in terms of manpower, that is, cleaners who can be hired and everything. That is, even seemingly bulletproof things are being disrupted, which is simply incredible, yes. And in the meantime, many remain without work. At the same time, it must be understood that this disruption has a huge number of risks, and this company too, yes, so to speak, how to solve, for example, the problem with a cleaner who stole something or with someone who did it poorly. What about labor costs? Now, so to speak, new migrant policies will take place, right, your cleaners will simply start charging more, and people won't be able to pay more. And this market there will be a lot. Oh, you know, in America, cleaners already charge as much as paralegals. So that's it, well, so to speak, it's rather paralegals who charge as much as cleaners, right? Well, I don't know, yes. But this is indeed the case, it's interesting, but manual labor. Especially skilled cleaning might not be the brightest example in this case, but especially skilled manual labor today is simply fantastic. That is, if earlier they said: "Go, son, study, I don't know, to be a dentist," then now, probably, go study to be a welder, something like that, because a good welder is simply a golden person. Well, by the way, in Britain here too, there are indeed skilled trades. These people live quite well, say, compared to scientists. They earn definitely more than scientists. We see this. It's like in the Soviet Union. In general, the more socialism there is in the world, the more surprisingly workers earn more than scientists. And this process, unfortunately or fortunately, I don't know, it's a market process. Unlike the Soviet Union, in this case, it's a tough market process. I wouldn't say it's a tough market process. I think it's a problem of comprehensive regulation and taxation that pushes. And on the one hand, the Union, and on the other hand, when an entrepreneur is burdened with such taxes, yes, the motivation to undertake decreases, when so many things are done senselessly in academia, it sucks state money, and real research cannot receive anything. There is a huge oversupply of scientists funded by the state. Moreover, I mean by scientists not scientists who are scientists, but scientists who are bureaucrats or scientists who study, senseless grants, senseless funding programs. That is, science has been socialized monstrously under the slogan that corporations will not pay for real science, because they don't need it today. And real science has turned into an absolutely Soviet socialist space where bureaucrats decide what science is. And this is also a huge problem now for the developed world. Yes, agreed. A very popular question. I am always asked, because I have conducted many conferences in America, including for Russian-speaking people. The question is this. The dollar as the world reserve currency, the dollar as the main, perhaps, means of exchange in this world. How strong is its position? Because now there is a lot of all sorts of information, ideas about why it is not strong and why Trump will probably hammer the nail? Well, look, we've talked a bit about people liking simple answers, right? And here too, there is, so to speak, such a human love for simple answers about who controls what. And when I try to tell people that, believe me, yes, I have spent my whole life actually dealing with investments, economics, yes, and no one controls anything here. In reality, it's a huge space, a gigantic ecosystem that lives due to a huge number of factors independent of specific hands or eyes. People don't want to believe. They want that Trump could hammer the dollar, Xi Jinping, I don't know, do something else. They can't do that. The system is too complex, too heavy. They can influence it. They will be factors in this system. Thanks to these factors in the system, something will shift slightly in some place. Perhaps, thanks to similar shifts over many generations, serious changes will occur, as happened, for example, the transition from the gold standard system to modern finance. But the transition from the gold standard system to modern finance did not happen because American presidents spent a lot of money. It happened because ways appeared to process the modern financial system, informational ways, above all, mainframes appeared by that time. You couldn't do anything without this? Just as the success of the French in the Middle Ages, yes, on the battlefield was due to the fact that they were the first to use cannons. But for them to use cannons first, they needed the corresponding type of steel to appear, for casting to appear of the corresponding type and so on. Yes, and all this was formed over generations, centuries. The same is true here. What we have now is a sufficiently stable structure, in which the dollar is about half of the world's financial system. The dollar is the mark to market for commodities. So, let's try to explain in simple terms here. How much does oil cost? How many dollars? How many dollars, yes? Not som, and not rand, yes, and not dinars, yes. Yes. So the dollar is a currency whose exchange is cheapest. Spreads to the dollar are usually the lowest on exchange, the dollar is the currency that the largest number of banks know how to calculate and the largest network of correspondent accounts. Spreads to the dollar mean that if I were to exchange, I don't know, pounds for euros, then my costs and instability, unpredictability of the exchange rate would be greater than if I were to exchange pounds for dollars. Yes, a little more, but that little bit is enough. Moreover, sometimes there are situations when, well, pounds-euros, probably, there is almost no such thing, but you move a little bit away from, so to speak, from Main Street, and exchanging one currency for another is cheaper through the dollar. Yes. All this must be understood, it must be taken into account. There are enough dollars to support world trade. There is no currency that is enough in quantity, except for the dollar, to support it. The dollar behaves well, yes, but now it has, so to speak, fallen a bit, but let's remember, yes, so to speak, it has fallen a bit there, say, 1:15 to the euro, but remember how it was 1:30 to the euro, and how it was 1:43 to the euro, yes? So the dollar is strong. Well, this is probably quite old history, isn't it? In the 21st century, the dollar was one to two to the pound, and now it's 1.35, yes? So the dollar is still loved because, in the long term, it tends to appreciate, and no one has canceled that yet. The American economy is the most powerful in the world. No matter how much someone tries, so to speak, to calculate China using creative accounting, it means purchasing power parity and all that. Well, yes, yes. In reality, the American economy is the most powerful, the largest. The American economy has a lot of its own problems. We can talk about them for hours. The same debt, the same budget deficit, and so on, but it doesn't stop being the most powerful in the world. The American asset volume is the largest national asset volume in the world. American gold reserves, you understand, American innovation is the largest in the world. American GDP growth per person per year for large economies is the largest in the world. By far, yes? There are small economies that manage to grow faster, but these are local phenomena. Yes. So, the US GDP per person compared to, say, China, is how many times more? About that much. So there's nothing to talk about here yet. You can try to harm anything you want. You can, so to speak, hit your head against this concrete bunker wall with a running start. There may even be traces of your blood left on the bunker, but it doesn't help, the bunker won't move. Well, yes. So, potentially, of course, other very powerful currencies, stronger than the dollar, can appear in this world. They exist, but it will take a lot of time. No, wait, they already exist. The euro is a very powerful currency. The franc, the pound, the yen, the yuan, yes. But here's the situation, right? As soon as a country starts to approach the idea that its currency will become the currency of international settlements, then, in theory, a little man should appear at the table in their central bank who should say: "Ah, and do you understand that you will no longer be able to control the exchange rate of your currency? And do you understand what controlling means, like China controls, manipulates the exchange rate to manage the economy? Yes. Look at the Americans. Yes, how much has the dollar grown in the 21st century? How much has this weakened their competitiveness in the market? To what deficit has this led? Do you want to be like America? I think that in the Central Bank of China they understand this perfectly. And therefore, they continue to maintain two exchange rates. And therefore, they continue to restrict currency movement. And therefore, they continue to manipulate this exchange rate, for which the Americans strongly dislike them. And the Chinese are happy about this, because they have a very good tool. Yes, and they don't give a damn about their currency as an international currency of settlement. Why is it needed? Americans use this in a unique way. For

In order to use this, one must be Americans and sit in this market for 100 years, and go through World War II, and get a dominant position, and so on. They use their seigniorage. They use the opportunity to borrow in their domestic currency, because in the domestic currency, you will never default, unless you are Yeltsin. Yes, and develop your business on borrowed money. But this will not work for another country. So, this is impossible to reproduce now. That is, this model is impossible to repeat. Today, yes, let's talk in 50 years. Today, no. I hope we will talk. They say that people will live longer now. Well, we'll see, we'll see. We are trying. Thank you, when my subscribers, my friends, clients ask me about where to start a business career or continue it. Now there is a very large business migration from the Russian Federation, from Ukraine. And I think it will continue for several more years. This is business immigration. I always say: "Guys, listen, go to America, because it is the most friendly country towards immigrants." With a large economy. Well, one of the problems that I see in Europe, it is very difficult to assimilate in Europe, because after all, these countries that grew out of monarchical cultures with estates, various layers, divided societies and cultures, nobility and so on, these are quite chauvinistic countries, yes, this is, of course, what I say, not very socially acceptable and contradicts the generally accepted agenda, but in reality, these are countries where immigrants are treated poorly internally, it is simply ingrained in the culture. America is not like that. America is a country where everyone is an immigrant, the only question is in which generation, in which there are also strange people who consider themselves real Americans because their grandfather still came there, and those who are in the first generation are not real. But this percentage is very small, in reality. That is, it is a country with a colossal market volume. This is what we are now helping our clients do roll-ups, that is, when they reach a certain level, to buy similar companies, to merge them, and so on. And we researched, for example, the UK, on the subject of roofing, because we help do roofing in Florida, and one of our clients decided to research, accordingly, the United Kingdom. And we were very surprised by how uninteresting it is from the point of view of private equity companies that operate in this market, from the point of view of the number of targets in the market that can be acquired, well, at all. And we were very surprised. And as a result, she decided to go to America and do a roll-up there. Because, when we compare the entire UK with just one country called Florida, which is roughly comparable to Spain in terms of economy, but in which there are 3,500 roofing companies and there are always at least dozens of companies on the market founded by baby boomers who need to retire and there's nowhere to go. That is, there are companies that can be divided, that can be looked at. Therefore, I always say that if you are a Russian-speaking business immigrant and you are thinking about where to open a company, a business, I highly recommend looking at America, because one of the biggest disappointments that an energetic, cheerful entrepreneur with ambitions can experience is to build a business and hit a market ceiling. This is one of the most sad disappointments, when you have been doing business for many years, you have great clients, your eyes are burning, you have a great team, you use technology, and then at some point everything becomes more complicated, technologies become more complicated, it becomes harder to increase efficiency, everything becomes. And you just come, start, finally look at the market, because at first you didn't calculate what market you are working in, where you were going. You start looking at the market, and you realize that you are simply hitting the market size. I will not argue with you, obviously, America is a great market, yes? Here we are, so to speak, ultimately entering the American market. Yes. Because, as I said, yes, when we talked before the recording, that if you are very unsuccessful in America, you are still very successful, yes, because there is enough for everyone, yes, space, and such a huge space. But it seems to me that we still need to consider a few other things. Firstly, of course, the competition there is often higher than in Europe. There are many places in Europe. Quantitatively or qualitatively? Both. In Europe, due to the fact that Europe is significantly more socialist, there are many places where no one simply goes, and there is a lot of money there in reality, or people go there so poorly and so ineffectively that if you know how to do it well, then you instantly, so to speak, occupy the space. Secondly, America is a country where many things are simply, well, so to speak, tightly, well done. For example, I recently talked to people who successfully run training companies. A company that sells courses. Uh-huh. Which have made a very good entry into Latin America. I naturally asked them: "And what about the states?" And they said: "We have studied the market in great detail, there is simply no room, we will not be able to enter." So this also needs to be kept in mind, because, well, this is no longer the Wild West, is it? This is a civilized space. And America is very good as a business place. And precisely because of this, it can be very crowded in some areas, in some places. Yes, yes. High competition, difficult marketing, much more expensive marketing than in any other country. So, of course, there is its own specificity. By the way, I noticed one very interesting thing in America, which кардинально distinguishes America from Russia and, in general, even from Europe. If you, I don't know, do, as you said, roofing, and you come to America, go to the owner of a large roofing company and say: "Well, how is your business done?" He stops all his affairs and spends a lot of time with you and tells you everything and shows you, despite the fact that you are a competitor, and gives advice and is ready to interact with you and so on. If you do this in Europe, especially in Britain, they will be polite to you, they will tell you everything that, so to speak, can be publicly told, and will keep you at some distance. If you try to do this in Russia, they will tell you that you are a fool, I will tell you my secrets. Get out of here, you are my competitor. And in this sense, I also really like America. I've been through this many times. I graduated from the University of Chicago, studied in America. In general, well, in a sense, I understand this environment. And in this sense, I really like the American environment for business, of course. Well, yes, I think that this is rooted a little deeper. This is rooted in mentality. A completely different mentality. It is simply that in the post-Soviet mentality, this is characteristic not only of Russia, it is characteristic of all post-Soviet countries. Post-Soviet mentality is the mentality of a very oppressed people, very suppressed. This is why I understand African-American culture in America very well. Because for me, African-American culture is practically an analogue of post-Soviet culture. These are people who are a little wary of everything that is happening, they walk down the street as if on a minefield, and you can see the tension in their faces. This is our legacy. Well, I was born in the Soviet Union, just like you, I was born two years later in Siberia, I grew up in the Volga region. Therefore, I understand this attitude very well. And post-Soviet mentality is when every person you interact with, you first have to check their intentions. You have to somehow communicate with them to make sure that they don't have a dagger somewhere or a pistol, and they are not going to hurt you or do something bad to you. Yes, the American mentality is absolutely the opposite. That is, communication with each new person begins at least from zero, and often even from a positive point, because any communication can bring something to your life. And therefore, in America, why does he act like this? Simply because he understands that good relationships with a smart, talented person will most likely bring him benefits, because, well, you will do great business in my field, I will hire you as a contractor later, or we will do some projects together and so on. We are already on the same wavelength. And when it comes to post-Soviet countries, it's primarily: "What are you going to steal from me? How are you going to stab me in the back?" And you have to prove it first. Therefore, we first have to communicate for a long time to break the ice, to establish communication, and only after that will I start talking to you normally. Absolutely. But this should not be confused with and taken for absolute honesty and openness, because I have seen so many cases in America, well, and fraud, and simply that people, when given the opportunity, use legal and semi-legal ways to cheat you. I would even say that there is less of this in Europe, although of course there is also. Especially among those who help immigrants. This is separate. But I explain it this way, why this happens. Why your brethren, as a rule, try to cheat you first, when a person starts to mess up, when he starts to deceive, then when he loses confidence that he can honestly and correctly survive, earn and win. When this confidence begins to crumble under the pressure of external circumstances, then he begins to allow himself and so on. And therefore, well, among people who have just arrived in the country, there is no traction yet, there is no good income yet, a confident position in life. Unfortunately, such things are more common. Remember Vysotsky sang, yes, we are gentlemen, if there is luck, and if there is no luck, there are no gentlemen. And it seems to me that from the point of view of investments, this is one of the fundamental principles that people need to understand. So. And here, about investments, please in more detail. Yes. Very often I have encountered this many times. Yes. As long as everything is going well. Everything is going well. When the situation changes, when something goes wrong, everyone immediately starts looking out for themselves. And the one who is in control, saves himself, yes? And everyone else drowns at that moment. And especially if you, for example, I don't know, give money to private equity, venture capital, some project, some business, then you need to understand that the person who is leading this project will most likely save himself at your expense, most likely, if something goes wrong. Here, all norms and decency usually disappear immediately. And in this sense, you must understand very well what protects you. This protection should not be a kind word from another person, not his obligation, not "I swear by my mother," yes, not that he is a good person, yes, but there should be some system that can protect you. And in general, if you don't know who the sucker is, I can tell you who. Yes. And I can say this: I am very passionate about the business I do. Our business accelerator is a fairly large company, about 250 people, dozens of countries, three languages. And it's a damn difficult business. When I was involved in manufacturing before, I thought that manufacturing was a difficult business. No, it's all child's play compared to what a business accelerator is, what supporting entrepreneurs, training, and so on is. Marketing is incredibly difficult in this area. Several languages, many countries. In general, it's hell in terms of complexity, but it's very exciting because it gives a lot of emotions, it gives a lot of victories. A stunning circle of acquaintances. All this is good. For me, for example, investments, my attitude towards this is this, yes, I need to invest, because I really need diversification, because, yes, our company brings good profit. In recent years, we have been working to ensure that it has good capitalization. And there are breakthroughs in this area. That is, I cannot say that we have won, but there are breakthroughs, especially with automation, with AI. Simply, we have hope that it will be quite well capitalized. But for now, it's just hope. My approach to this is only funds, only professionals. My point of view is that you need to find smart people, people who live for this, because I don't believe in working with investments in any area as some kind of successful side hustle. I don't believe in it. This is an area that requires immersion, it is complex, it requires analysis of a large amount of data. Therefore, my approach is that there is Kolya Davydov's venture fund, I want venture capital, AI, it excites me, I like it, I put some money there. And I watch, they do it smartly. I like it, I get pleasure. I want to be more conservative, and accordingly, I go to another fund, Movchan's, for example, yes, and place it there. And then I also listen to how these smart people talk about what they are doing, and from this I get pleasure. From my point of view, for me personally, as a person passionate about the business I do, this is probably the optimal approach. Well, of course, yes, as a person who manages a company, yes, effectively owns a company that makes investment funds, I can only welcome it. The other thing is that you need to understand when you are doing all this, yes, in light of what we just said, how do you understand what is actually happening inside these systems? Where do you know, yes, that what is there is worth as much as, say, they tell you? Where do you know that if some risks are realized, then their processing will be in your interests? These questions need to be answered before you invest money anywhere. And the less liquid and transparent the product, well, there are, there are modern means, they provide transparency, the same ones. You see your portfolio in some Angels List, you see some reports from funds, where, what your money is invested in, in which assets. Look, if we are talking about completely liquid products, yes, then what has a quote on a large exchange, then it's more or less okay, yes, the main thing is that it doesn't turn out that these assets don't actually exist. Yes, because it can happen that it's just an Excel theoretically, yes. That is, when they ask me: "And so to say: 'I'm afraid to give to funds, I want you to manage my money on my account.'" I tell them: "Listen, you are afraid in vain, because I can steal money from your account very easily." Your account protects you from nothing. He says: "And what do you mean, you can't steal money in a fund?" I say: "No, I can steal money in a fund. I can steal everywhere." Well, of course, if a person wants to steal, he can. Yes, there is no situation in which this is impossible, but in a fund it is harder for me to do than on your account, because there is an independent administrator, I cannot withdraw money myself freely and so on, but I still can. I will come up with it, it's a competition of armor and projectile. Yes. And the less liquid it is, the less frequent the reporting, the less well-known the administrator, or if there is no administrator, and the auditor changes more often, yes, the more suspicions arise and the less you want to give money to such places. This is a whole separate science, how, in general, to analyze, say, a fund or an organization that takes money for projects from the point of view of security, yes, not investment strategy success, but security. There, the last story is the so-called loft case in Britain, when one of the largest real estate agencies, globally known, and you surely know their name, I will not name them for ethical reasons, sold investments in England with a guarantee of 8% per annum to a large number of Russian investors, Russian-speaking ones, to buy recreation houses, lofts, yes, in the countryside, and there the lots were like 150,000, 200,000, so small. And, you know, the company guaranteed 8% per annum management, everything, yes, everything is excellent, everything is good. Well, then, you know, happy investors managed to get 25% back, unhappy ones got nothing, because in the end it turned out that all this was an absolute multi-story fiction and setup, and there were some, so to speak, gypsy owners of all this property. People, theoretically, now have a claim on wooden structures built on someone else's land, which does not belong to them. At the same time, the company is bankrupt, which is the owner, and therefore, even it is difficult to make a claim and so on, yes. And it would seem, you know, a broker who can be trusted. Well, it was sold by a broker who, yes, the broker sold it with an office on Oxford Street with a huge building they own. And the brokers themselves did not expect this, honestly. The guys themselves, because there are the same sales girls sitting there who simply did not understand. Well, it's clear, they are brokers, yes, they have an offer, and they offer it, yes, and all these beautiful documents that were drawn up and so on, all, yes, no company guarantee gives anything if the guarantor goes bankrupt. So what to do? That's what I'm saying, that, firstly, it's a whole science to search and understand, to look at everything, at the pedigree, at the going concern, at why people are doing this, why they need money, how they will work, at what independent evaluation criteria exist. You need to understand what KPMG audit is, for example, yes, or Deloitte and so on. This is not an independent assessment. I have been involved in fixed income for many years, I have seen so many companies that defaulted on bonds with a magnificent audit. And then the auditor said: "Oh, well, yes, we have to issue a report now that we made a mistake in the audit." Brilliant. Nothing else. Nothing else happens. This also needs to be understood. Brilliant. Yes. So here it is, when we do a fund of funds, we have a fund of funds business. We have two products that are funds of funds. We, in general, understand that this is a very, so to speak, musical story. You must have experience to understand what is happening, how, and we have made mistakes. And in our history of fund of funds, we have one fund in which we lost 100%. We have one in which we lost 60, and one in which we lost 100. These are our two mistakes, so to speak. In our history, we have invested in probably a hundred different funds, but nevertheless, we are not the stupidest people. That is, we don't have any practical answer or advice: but how, and where should the poor entrepreneur, who wants to invest several hundred thousand dollars a year somewhere, where should he go? How should he find it? Well, my advice is very simple. Invest conservatively, invest in liquid products, invest in sufficiently large products where there are many different investors, where a lot of people are looking with their eyes and thinking, is it good or bad. Invest with a team that clearly wants to continue working, not run away to Argentina. Yes, invest in a strategy that they can explain to you, not something like, I have a secret way, so to speak, to squeeze blood from a stone, and you will have 20% per annum. Invest with people who have a pedigree, yes, who, well, know something, yes, they have a normal education, work experience. It's like, you know, there is a very good Russian proverb: "It's better to lose with a smart person than to find with a fool." This is exactly, I think, about investments, because, yes, indeed, there are some things that shoot up with astonishing success. This is what finding with a fool is, yes, but if there is no proper background, tools, and intention, then it will still not end well. Well, of course. Investing is a systematic thing. You do it every day. Every day. Every day, yes. You have to invest this year and next. And next year and so on. Luck will run out. A question for you, as you are the founder of this group of funds, for you this is a business. What motivates you, what energizes you in this business? Why are you doing this business? You know, I have a very good friend, a urologist. So I, you know, once again, drinking whiskey with him, I say to him: "Andrey, well, are there people who have a calling to be urologists, or proctologists?" And he told me: "Well, you know, no, I don't think so, but in medical university, the situation depends on how good a professor you get, yes? So, a professor with whom you want to study, who is ready to promote you, who is ready to give you, so to speak, his quality of knowledge and work." And it happened that there was simply a urologist professor who was ready to work with me and, you know, make me a good doctor. I probably have to say the same thing here. But I have a propensity, I am a mathematician, so doing, say, mining business, yes, well, I am not a chemist, I am not a geologist, so to speak, I am a mathematician after all, and investment is mathematics. Plus, I, well, anecdotally, completely fell into business. I was a university graduate. After that, I worked a little in a laboratory in Podlipki, you know, the ones that fly far and for a long time, yes. And when there was absolutely nothing to eat in the early nineties, my salary in Podlipki was 10 dollars a month. And I have a wife, my first child, yes. I saw an advertisement in the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" that businesses needed mathematicians. Unusual in itself. In those times, businesses needed, so to speak, guns, bouncers, yes, marksmen, fast runners, yes, here mathematicians. Yes. And I, you know, went according to the advertisement. It turned out that this was one of Misha Fridman's companies, then just being created, which was involved in real estate. And a mathematician was needed to analyze investment projects. Well, and I was a good mathematician. I really, by the way, had everything that was needed for a very good mathematician. Therefore, they quickly hired me, gave me a salary of 250 dollars a month, 25 times more than the previous month. It was quite a growth. And that's how I ended up there. I ended up, so to speak, starting with the analysis of investment projects. Without understanding anything. I had to take a book, start reading about it. And as I ended up in investments, I ended up in them. That's it. Here I am, so to speak, working in them all my life. And this is what I know how to do, and I don't know how to do anything else. In reality, it seems to me that in business, you need to be very good at what you do. Well, there are still some meanings, how we explain to ourselves why it's cool to do this. Well, I explain it to myself this way: I help talented guys, entrepreneurs with some good, bright ideas to realize these dreams so that it's without much pain, without suffering, or with minimal suffering, but with rapid development. And as a result, so to speak, civilization becomes better, because they provide better services, grow faster, in general, the quality of life improves, it's fun. Well, I'm not so kind, I don't have the idea of saving humanity. My wife saves humanity, that's her job. And what does she do? She is a doctor and now she is doing psychotherapy. I must say that we have a very interesting tandem. Maybe we will talk about that too, because I, well, I am by nature an adapted Asperger, yes? I, for example, absolutely do not perceive human emotions. Uh-huh. I can feel good or bad towards people, but I absolutely do not understand them, I don't see them. By the way, in our company too, yes, and my wife works with me as an indicator, so to speak, what a person thinks, what he feels, yes, there she says: "What are you doing at all? You don't understand, right, how it is?" No, I absolutely don't understand. Indeed, it is very useful. But, you know, my mission in this world is not, you know, to save the world, but to do what I want. And investment is a very scientific business, it is beautiful mathematics, it is very interesting constructions. My second great passion in life is the history of economics and socioeconomics, the economics of societies. Honestly, yes, I really, like some people love ballet, I love this. Yes, and this is also a very scientific thing. This is very intertwined in investments. You were talking about, maybe a series of programs about the history of economics of different countries. This is exactly what excites me, what I like. Guys, you must watch this. This is what I, in general, understand, yes. Someone, I don't remember who, said a brilliant phrase that an intellectual is a person who has found something that he likes more than sex. For me, this is mathematics, the history of economics, economics, socioeconomics, yes. And investments are the quintessence of all this. Well, this is very interesting. I think you have books on this topic. Well, "Damned Economies" yes, this is a book that I wrote with Lyosha Mitrov. Yes, it's an excellent book, in my opinion.

A look, an excellent book, interesting. No, I know that it is an excellent book. And it is visible that you have in this, you know, when I look, for me it is like Sherlock Holmes, well, who unravels not everyday events, but who unravels very large-scale events. And it is always very interesting to listen to. Because, I don't know, it seems to me, every curious person wants to understand, why did it turn out this way, why is this country here now, and that country there. And what awaits us? Here, one just needs not to forget two things. Everything that I love and everything that I can describe are processes, it is economics. Yes. These processes have two problems. First, they periodically go to the brink, beyond which they can fall in one direction or another, which cannot be predicted. And they periodically fall there and back. unpredictably. And the second problem is, of course, that, as they say, everything was going according to plan until politics intervened. Because when psychology intervenes, especially where individuals make decisions, psychology starts to work, yes, then, of course, one can say, absolutely counter-economic events can occur. That is, these kinds of things are what no mathematics can predict. Well, perhaps, some kind of, so your faith in mathematics is actually much deeper. Isaac Asimov has a novel, Foundation. Which says, so to speak, its idea is that perhaps there is mathematics that predicts not only, so to speak, economic processes, yes, but also psychological processes. But we see so far that this is not the case. There, as of today, there is no such such a construct, yes, let's say, mathematical psychology as a science is absent. There is mathematical sociology, when masses make decisions, yes, and this, yes, this is predictable, it works quite well. There is sociopsychiatry, I would even say, sociopsychotherapy, when the state of society can be described as the state of a person. This also works. But, decisions at focal points, no one can describe, yes. Trump immediately comes to mind. That is, for some reason, yes, for some reason, our talkative new president immediately pops up. Well, look how interesting, yes. America is a country in which decision-making is to a significantly greater extent collective. Yes, and all of Trump's actions are very unpredictable, yet significantly more predictable than the actions of some Eastern dictators. Yes, of course. And the most insane, scandalous ideas, they are, in general, leveled by the system. The system of checks and balances, it works, no matter what, yes. This is a very, actually, a very interesting model. It is very interesting to observe this. This is the first president for whom I voted in the United States. And when they ask me: "Why did you do this?" I say: "Well, look, that is, it's more, well, that is, it was clear, it was already clear, that is, well, you don't need to be a genius to observe the track record and understand." But it's more against Kamala Harris than for Trump. But what can you do. That's how our system is built, that you don't really have a choice. You have either A or B. You have to decide. Or you can do nothing. Okay. I have a few more, literally short questions, with which, as usual, all interviews are concluded. Imagine that you have an entrepreneur in front of you, who is, say, thirty years old, and he has started earning, he has money to support his family, to invest something in business, and, well, most likely, something to put aside. That is, what advice would you give to this young entrepreneur, one might say, a beginner? Your own business is cool. You need to understand that the expected income of your own business is still higher than the expected income from other things. Absolutely, if his own business is working out, it's a very good start. But at the same time, you need to understand that your own business also involves very high risks. And every business has a lifespan. Anyway, yes, very few businesses live their entire life with the entrepreneur. Simply because, well, the world is changing a lot, and when you are fifty, you will change much worse than when you are thirty. This also needs to be understood. No matter how much we try to stay young, the accumulated experience makes itself known absolutely. Sooner or later, you start to fall behind, and Microsoft is an exception, not the rule. This also needs to be understood. Therefore, even within your own business, you need to try to diversify as much as possible, including diversifying your expertise. If the business depends on you, and everyone else here is an idiot, what are you doing, then this is not a viable business. In reality, no matter how brilliant you are, it's quite the opposite, yes. Here, by the way, a good example. I listen to your podcasts on YouTube, and you have many very bright, smart, cool guys who reveal good, interesting ideas. Well, of course, inside me, everyone already knows my catchphrase, that if I were hiring people to whom I want to answer their questions, then I would hire assistants. That's cheap. So. And if I'm not hiring assistants, then you should answer my questions. I have no idea, yes, how I hired you for this. And I must say that now, when we have a mature large business that has been profitable for 10 years every year, growing by about 30% per year. I now always look at it quietly. Without telling people, as a miracle, because I don't understand how they do it in their own places. I wouldn't be able to do it in their place. And in this sense, it seems to me that this is the key to sustainability. This really works. So. And continuing about your entrepreneur. If profit is earned, it must be diversified. The company's capital must still be diversified somehow. You need to bring someone with you into this yoke, so that you have at least a couple more eyes that are afraid that you will lose money. This is a very important pair of eyes, so that you can diversify. And maybe, by the way, increase the equity return by taking debt, your earnings per share will grow by a percentage. And some money needs to be left, because shit happens. And leave it, if you have such a risky business, you have something to risk here. You shouldn't leave it in cryptocurrency, yes, you will actually be, so to speak, doing the same thing, only on the right, yes? They should be left in a sufficiently diversified and conservative investment method, in which you will not worry. And you shouldn't do it yourself, because there are many like you. If everyone were so smart, so to speak, everyone would be rich. And if the investment market is very simple, you earned everything that someone else lost. It can't be otherwise, right? So you buy today, tomorrow you sell. Someone sold at this point, someone bought at this point, yes? That's why you have to trust professionals, but you have to trust professionals when you can trust them. And this, and this trick. Here you have to think about whom you trust, because there are countless people who want to take your money. Yes. We have never had a problem with this. Thank God, social networks have appeared, which provide an amazingly wide range of opportunities to lose money. What do you teach your children regarding money? I always tell them that if you think about how much money you need, and not how many things you need, roughly speaking, or how much value you need in life, then you will always be short, because you always need three times more money than you have. This is a well-known psychological fact. And if you think about what you want to have in this life, then you will quickly draw a line at which you want to be, because you actually don't want many things. You just see them on the street, they sell you the idea of wanting them. Absolutely. Yes. There, my son, who is now sixteen, at some point, when he was a younger teenager, asked me with surprise: "We drove in a big Mercedes jeep in Moscow, and here you bought yourself a Mini Countryman and you drive a Mini Countryman, because I wanted it, yes? So, how is it? Yes, you can buy yourself, I don't know, a Lamborghini." I tell him, I needed a jeep in Moscow, because there were meter-high snowdrifts, not because I wanted a big jeep. I drive a Mini here because a Mini is easy to park. This has nothing to do with who has a Lamborghini parked on the street, and so on. I don't need a Lamborghini. Why do I need a Lamborghini? What will I do with it? This coffin on wheels, for crazy money. And if you approach it like this, yes, then you will quite quickly, if you are a capable and persistent person, reach the level you need. That's it. So, it's good to want and understand what you actually want, yes? Want what you need, not what is imposed on you or what others have, because most demand, a huge volume of demand today is imposed. So. The second, I think, very important thought here is that you earn money through intrinsic value, through yourself. through your value you earn money, because it is you. Not through your investments, not through connections, not through where you ended up by chance or something, not through what you seem to be, not through artificial posts on the network, which artificial intelligence made for you. Yes, you must have your value, you must have something unique for which you are paid money. And there is a huge difference between what you are given when you pay, and what you are given when you are paid. A huge fundamental difference. You can be a brilliant student. Everyone can love you incredibly, as long as your dad pays your tuition. And this situation changes fundamentally when you need to be paid a salary. So, look for your value, create it. So. Well, and probably the third thing is completely banal - emotions, not things. What is the main thing that you should strive for in life, I tell them, it's emotions. Think about what emotions you want to receive. What is it? I don't know, family, love, travel, discovery, success, faith, yes, whatever. But you live by emotions anyway, not by things. If a thing evokes an emotion, that's good, but things, as a rule, evoke very short and very pale emotions. There are a huge number of other things that evoke significantly brighter emotions. So, focus there, not on having, yes? Think about who you are and how you live, not what you have. Cool. Thank you. Deep. Cool. And the last question. If there was an opportunity to turn back time, to return somewhere to the beginning of your career, possessing this experience, knowledge, understanding, awareness of the world as a whole? That is, what advice would you want to give to yourself at the beginning of your career? For investors, this is very funny, yes? That is, in principle, as in the movie "Back to the Future," yes, I should say that the advice should look like: "Wait until 2003, buy Amazon, wait for Facebook's IPO, buy Facebook, then invest everything in Bitcoin." You don't understand what Bitcoin is, you don't need to, the main thing is to remember the word, yes? So. Well, in terms of a joke, yes, as it were. And if we talk about abstract experience, I would say that 30 years ago I had a completely different idea about people. I believed in three things: in intelligence, rationality, and decency. And, of course, now, after 30 years, I understand that, on average, people are not smart, almost no one is rational, and very many are dishonest. And if I had understood this, it would have been much easier and simpler for me to develop, grow, and live. There were many different discoveries for me. I remember when in 2008, yes, the crisis, I was managing buy side at Renaissance, I had $7 billion of client money under management. So. And Jennings, Stephen Jennings, the owner of Renaissance, so the main one, yes, he came to me and said: "We have a hole of $1.5 billion, so, let's say, like, 20% of your clients' losses, we will now close the hole." I said: "No, we will not do that. I will not sign this, listen, I still have to live, in general, you will go somewhere, yes, how will I be responsible for this?" No, we will not do that. He says: "Okay, then I'm firing you." Okay, then I'm leaving, no problem. And it turned out that a few days before that, he had canceled all my powers in all funds, because he was afraid that when I left, I would, you know, steal the company, I would steal money, I would steal funds. For me, it was such a discovery that a person worked with me for 8 years. I built a huge business for him from scratch. We drank together, walked, talked, had heart-to-heart conversations, discussed business building together. And he, at the same time, kept in mind that I could steal the company from him, if, you know, if the case may be, yes? Or maybe he was right in this sense. Maybe one should keep such things in mind. Maybe it was part of his job. Well, as it were, that's why I say, because I have seen similar things many times. Indeed, people very often act completely differently than you expect, and significantly more often than they act dishonestly, they act irrationally. Well, yes. Well, I think that dishonesty is also just one of the subcategories of irrationality, because in the end, it is still irrational. Sometimes it is very rational. Well, rational from the point of view of some current benefit. Believe me, I have seen many people who got away with that, yes, just by stealing money, they are all okay. They, so to speak, are fine. Awareness of this, this is already a question, awareness of this, but still there are some reference points that we orient ourselves by in life, yes? Well, okay, people, irrational, dishonest. What then, in relation to people? There must be some good thing that makes all this meaningful. There must be, yes. But as an investor, I have to be skeptical, otherwise, so to speak, I will lose other people's money. And I must say, by the way, that moving to England, yes, to Great Britain, is one of the criteria, yes, why I was moving. And I have been living here for 5 years, and I continue to believe that I made no mistake, that it is so, because, after all, people here initially, when they meet you, are initially ready to help you, initially want to see you as a good person, and initially want to be good. This does not always happen later. People are all different. There are more stupid, more intelligent, more selfish, less selfish, and so on. But the initial approach that hangs in the air here is exactly that. Let's start with the good, which was sharply different, of course, from Russia, where I lived, where the initial approach was, so to speak, let's start with the bad, then we'll see. And for me, this opportunity to relax here, yes, as it were, it is very valuable, of course. I very much hope that the world will gradually migrate to this as the norm. So, this is an important component of quality of life. Yes, of course. Well, thank you very much for the advice, thank you very much for your time, for this conversation. It was unusually interesting for me. I hope my subscribers will also find it interesting to listen to. You're welcome. I am from a family of scientists, so I like to talk, so it is also pleasant for me. Thank you. Yes, thank you and good luck to you.