Transcription
Good morning, cool cats and kittens. Let me get you the fancy open because you're going to feel cheated if you don't get that good tunes that you and then you would think that I would have the camera set up already. There you go again. Hey, hey, hey. Let's begin the countdown cuz that'll push me to go get my coffee. You are here and all. All right. All right. So, put that there. Put this here. Yay. Bonding. All right, let's do it.
Good morning, cool cats and kittens. All right, let's do it because I have an inordinate amount to today and so do you. So, the very first thing we're going to do is just do the cues and we're going to understand that we're pretty much below everything. I'm going to check the mic and I've got the head cut off. I don't know why the head's cut off. There it is. Is that good? Yeah, that's not cut off.
Um, these are just those blue light glasses. They're not prescription or anything. They are extremely helpful uh to staring at computers all day. Someone just bought that new. A couple guys just bought that new blue light, the real big one, and they love it. Uh, I haven't switched monitors, so I'm not going to.
Um, all right, let's go. So if I if I look at how this is setting up, how would you look at this, right? So you would just see an H, right? So, you know, just be really careful.
Um the comments that are coming out by, you know, these guys that, oh, we're never going to, you know, we're never going to do anything ever again. It's all going to just be, you know, u we're never going to have to work again. It's just going to be AI. Isn't that great? Like you have to realize these guys have to raise billions and billions of dollars. Um, and if they don't talk about like what's really going on or how they're going to make money and everything else, um, it becomes an issue.
I don't really like the histogram. Do you? I don't really dig the histogram. I find it vexing. I'm vexed by it. So, we're gonna get rid of that. Is that going to do it? Hold on. It's in here somewhere. Where are you little guy? Up volume. There it is. So, just make it there. Black and black as night. Okay. Well, that's not helpful. Okay. How about that? Is that better? Yeah. There you go.
Um I really don't like the histogram. So, not that I don't, you know, you could use it. You should do what you're comfortable with. But we got to our level and we reject it, right? So when we see that there's like really not much long-term for us to do except respect it. Uh where do we get to? You know, I think it's an interesting question. I think at this point you almost have to retest this level. Now, was that enough? I I don't think so. I you know, I I don't think it is.
Um I know a lot of people are going to go out there and say, I'm going to buy, you know, the software names. you know, I I'd be super careful there about which software names I'd buy. Um, so, you know, I I don't know, man. I I'm really um I'm really vexed by what I see going on because you have I don't get to use that word a lot. I think I think maybe I watch Gladiator too many times.
So, the thing that's Let me put this here. And then let me put this here. Then I drop it down. Um, there we go. Nectar of the gods. The thing that that gets to me is that the software side of the market's 18 to 20% of the NASDAQ. So, I'm seeing companies that that have the ability to like go to zero o on this and then I see other companies that are being thrown out like Baby in the Bathwater. So, I think that people are just getting out of the way and saying, you know, that's enough. I've had enough. I'm just going to chill. Um, and see how this plays out. And I think that's right. So, um, I do I think that's right. I think that's the right way to to approach it right now. And I I really do I really don't I really don't see the reason to rush in anything.
I will say this um for you traders, you crazy kids, options are ridiculously cheap here and historic by historic valuations, I would think at some point you retest that put wall today. I don't see how you don't. The red's the pall. So, I would do that.
Um, I'm probably gonna start being more active again on Substack. I would I really like the written word and like doing stuff like that. I got away from Twitter just because it was so um like toxic. Like it was just, you know, there was just so many bots on it and everything else. So, um if you don't follow the Substack, you might want to. It's free and it, you know, there'll always it will always be free like it's never not going to be free. Um, but you might want to start following that because I feel the the I feel like writing again and like I I used to write research reports and all kinds of stuff. So, you just might want to follow that. Uh, if that's of interest, I think the link's in description. If not, I'll make a bigger deal about where the link is.
Um, let's get to the spy and check that out. So, then the question becomes, you know, what do we do here? and the the put walls down to here now 675. And I I really don't see how you don't test this, but I think you have to look at where the money's going. The money is going into capital intensive areas um more than anything else. And I would really pay attention to that.
Um, I don't really think we need to do this, but I think that if you really think about that, it makes a lot of sense. Like AI is not going to go out there and build a data center by itself. Not yet anyway, you know, when we get to Skynet by then. Um, so you know, you have some stuff here that that's of interest and, you know, you kind of broke. I mean, I I really don't see the sense in saying that you didn't break down. You did. So, you know, anything under here you have to watch. But I I do think that there's a um I do think there's a bounce out there. I do think that that's coming and I think that that's super important. So, you know, let's take a look at that and we'll go from there.
If I take a look at the ES here, uh I find this super interesting where, you know, you're really doing the same thing, but that's that CTA cell level. um we've gone over those before if you guys well if you're in the community you've done that.
Um a small batch of invites will go out tonight like maybe 10% that's on there. So just FYI um if you're trying to get into the community. Um it can only be so big guys because of what goes on in there. So um you know it does hit a point where it's just I can't do it. So, I have to and I talk to everybody now. Forced to talk to me, but yeah, I don't know that you're gonna come down to that level today or not. I don't know if you're going to get the failed H or what you're going to get.
Um, I'm not overly worried about data this week. Maybe I should be, you know, maybe that's my, you know, my fault that I'm not that worried about data. Um, but I'm really not. I'm more I'm more trying to figure out like where are where are we going here? So if I do it this way and I drop down the 50% level, you see where it is like from that peak down to here. See where it stops? Look at it. Look at it. Right? See where you just kept hitting over and over again? And that's the top of that H. Right? So the question becomes do does this H break or does this H retest up here? And I mean candidly I just don't have a an answer for you there.
So you know my thought on that um really is just to kind of hang out and and watch. I I don't think you need to, you know, really do a lot there. I don't think you need to do a lot period. I think that you should have a list of names that you really like and then pay attention to those. But I don't think you have to do more than that this morning.
Um, let's do it through the NQ and I'm going to take a bunch of questions because there's a lot of ways there's a lot of spots that I could go at this and yeah, I mean, you have a tough time holding anything. And um you know, I think off the open, you really just want to watch that and see how it plays out.
Um I definitely want to know when I get down here. And I definitely don't want to break my red wall. That's like a huge demarcation line for me. Like I don't even want to get in there. Um you know, I I don't really want to get in there. And there's some there's some really bad stuff going on technically here if you look at the socks and stuff. So my hope is that this all gets it together. But you know, I don't trade hope. I learned a long time ago.
So, um, what I'd like to do here is show you this on a five and then I'm going to take a bunch of questions. I think that's the best thing that I could do. Um, so here's that area and here you are as well.
Um, yeah. I I just don't see the whole I I got to do a lot here. I'm just not feeling it. I'd be more interested in gold than anything. Industrials. Industrial. Anything capital intensive, dude. Anything like that. Building a house, concrete, anything like that.
Yeah. I I have a position in this. I've had a position in this forever and a day. I I I think the real question that people aren't understanding is that they're Israeli based and therefore Israel Israel Israel gets to make a decision um on what they're going to do. Do they allow it or don't allow it? the corporation in question um you know, they're Saudi owned like they have like 10% or 12% Saudi owned so I'm not really sure that uh, you know, let me buy more of this. >> Thank you, little brush guy. Um Uh, hold on. So, um I don't know that it goes. I I I've owned this for a very long period of time. You're at $25 in cash. They're not putting the dividend out there, right? You know, you guys can comment on it. I mean, what do you think the chances of Israel letting this company get bought by, you know, Saudi Saudi minority owned company? I'd be curious to hear what you guys think. You know, someone knows more than me, that's for sure. Um, the people that I've talked to that are in this space are saying the same thing. They're like, "I don't know. I don't know how this is going to go." But you would almost think that a company of that magnitude would have reached out to them ahead of time and been like, "Hey, we're thinking about buying this company." Uh, how do you feel about that? So, I'm not going to do anything with the position. Am I going to add to it? Probably not.
I think a lot of people are going to look at this the same way they looked at this. What was that other one? Slab Bay. Was that it? Or SL a bay? Is that it? Silicon Labs that got bought. And I think this got bought for 25 or something. And people are like, "Oh, I'm not buying that. I think it's like 225 or 226. You know, it's a tech company that needs approval from China. China to uh to get bought. And so, you know, you don't know if if Trump comes out with super double secret tariffs again, you know, against the guacamole or whatever he's going to do. Um, you don't know how China's going to respond to that. So, China might just say no and that's pretty much the end of it. And then this thing's down at 130 and you know, everyone's crying. So, you know, there's a lot of weight here from these countries right now on these and there's a huge disruption in the way that things are being done. I would think that somebody had had a conversation with somebody there like, "Hey, what do you think of this?" But there I go again, you know, thinking it's the same thing I I felt about like WBD, which is actually trading up today because it's probably going to be Peace Guy that gets it. And I've said this for some time. I I still think it's going to be them that gets it. Um but you know, like I don't know what you know, who is advising you know Netflix on this and to me I think that this is you know, I think we'll look back at this on Netflix and be like, oh man, we really should have bought some Netflix and um if you were like long-term but you know, I don't know man. I I don't know. There's there's a lot going on there and you know, and you got the political side of it. So you you never know like doesn't matter. So it doesn't m I'm about to go off on a tangent. I'm going to reel it back in. We're going to reel that right back in.
So um to answer your question about CIM is like I I don't know that it goes through. I I haven't sold any and I'm wondering if I'm going to regret it, but I'm going to pl you know, I'm going to go with the horse I bet on. I'm just going to stay with it. You know, maybe for the extra five bucks I I should. but kick it. But I'm not going to. I'm going to play the hand. So yeah, I I you know, the thing about these kinds of names that are interesting um is I think that you you went through this like two weeks ago and I wasn't looking at this and I really wasn't looking at it when it did this and the these setups. John, just remember this. Like, every single time you have a 1222 cross under the 55 on this name, you want to give it a shot. It doesn't mean it's going to work, but the the probability of it, it's pretty high, man. And this makes a lot of sense because this is really where I think things are going. And I think they're going to I think it'll get up here, but I think it's going to, hey, hey, I have land.
Like if you really look at what if you really look at what Tether's doing, right, which is basically software, which which I read this really great article this weekend. I won't bore you with it, but um but it referred to basically was like talking about how crypto is really just software. And if you think about where is Tether putting their money, they're buying gold. They're buying physical gold. People are like, "Oh, they're buying physical gold so they can create a stable coin." They're buying gold, period. He might say we're doing it to create a stable coin, but they're physically buying gold. They are also buying land. And they're not buying this stuff. They might say they're doing it to tokenize it, but has anybody seen that yet? I haven't. I haven't seen anything like that coming out of there. So, I think that there's the capital intensive side of the market, the value side of the market. Man, I did this tra I did this chart, right, John? I think this Saturday in Saturday's video where like growth versus value like why are people not buying value names and I the capital intensive side of the market and it's not really where I trade like I I'll own them but I just get bored but that's it's working like it's very boring but it's working. So yeah, 100%. Um, and I would I would take a look at that. So, we'll have to see how that goes.
Um, but I think you I think the TPL that kind of stuff, the KVU, um, I don't know, man. I I don't have a real good feel about that one. The chart looks okay. You're probably coming on it or it looks like you probably broke the 200 already. You probably broke it right now. You're right there. Um, yeah. Yeah, I mean I I wouldn't go near that till I'm over. GLW looks great. It's capital intensive. I I like it. I think PLTR is in a lot of trouble. Like a lot of trouble. Um you might bounce here. I don't really care about the death cross, but you're in a lot of trouble. Especially the relationship with anthropic and how does this play out in I mean that is that is textbook. you have problems. You know that is textbook left head right and the right is the big you know meaty bodybuilder shoulder and this is your you know left troutlike shoulder that nobody likes. So, and you can see how broke test broke like yeah maybe you get through like maybe it works like maybe you can do that trade on the long side but realistically and this is what I think's happening is even stuff like hood like they're just getting out of the retail trade but I I think that they're at risk here. Um I think they're really there's a big risk here with this name right now. Yeah, I do. And you got to see what happens in midterms, too, because that could be a real problem.
I I don't have a good read on this at all. I I I thought this quarter was an absolute dumpster fire. I went back and listened to it again. It's It was a absolute dumpster fire. I was short. Um it didn't work. I got out of the short. I'm staying away from it because I think too many people are short it candidly. And I understand why people like it, but for me, General Mills. >> Thank you, little robot guy.
So, if I look at something like this, um I got to I can't play these kinds of names. So, I'll just show you where it is. But I I really can't you always want to clone them and then use them that way. Um I'm going to start doing more educational videos, too. They're probably going to be on Thursdays. So, uh I'm just looking at leaning that way. I think it'd be helpful. smaller, shorter ones, nothing crazy. Um, just like one topic for like 8 to 10 minutes. I think it'd be super helpful to draw on those because then I could take those videos and then link them into to Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday videos and say, "Hey, watch this video. This is the same thing we used for this and then you could watch it and just learn it real quick and then, you know, you have to implement it." But, um, I I keep trying to figure this part of it out because this is this is so interesting, right? because you have things like NBIS and this whole space and I I really like the space like it makes so much sense CIFR like we're running we're running out of wolf we're running out of space right like we don't have enough data space so like so if you don't have enough data space then it would make sense but why are they acting you know like an ass sandwich and and that's I don't have an answer to that and that I feel like I'm missing something. So, I don't know how else to say it. Sorry.
Um because then you look at like EQIX, right? And you're like, well, they're up because they're going to grow so much. And then you're looking at these other names like VRT VRT bookings were like 250%. And you have like all these other names that these guys like that are just like rocking, right? So, the structural buildout of data centers is only increasing. So, why the heck are these things struggling so much? And I don't have the right answer to it. I I really like the the NBIS. I think that one makes the most sense to me. Um it's really not my kind of trade, but it does make sense to me. And I'll tell you why. Because you are also you're not USbased. And I think people are looking at that right now. So I I kind of dig this um you know, I kind of dig this name and I'm kind of I'm I'm kind of partial to it. So I I don't know, man. I got to spend a little more time on it. But that's where my head is with it. Like if I had to say where I'm at, you know, I I don't know why why Ror's going up. I really don't. Corewave, you just the circular relationship there scares the hell out of me. So, and I think that you should be able to see this for yourself, right? Like, you probably don't need me to do this. You probably did that already, right? So, like I don't know. You first. Let me know how it go. Let me know how it goes. Uh, I know, bro. It's like we're going through the alphabet lately, right? What's up, Bam? Good morning, Ed. Oh, they're not getting in the glasses. Tell me that's not true. Oh, for God's sake. I sold the swing. Now I just got the long AWN. Yeah, I mean they're all kind of pulling back this morning, but I think that that is presenting opportunity more than anything. Like I'd love EWI to get smoked. Like yeah, sell it. Fine by me.
Um, what's up, Tariq? Yeah, I don't know. It's Ch I think you just have massive rotation. It's just a monster, dude. It makes it like when when I really I read some I hate when I'm off on a Monday, but I also like when I'm off on a Monday because I can catch up on all my reading. Um, I'm really floored by this. Like really, really floored by this and trying to understand it. like the whole side of the market where it's capital intensive and it's all buildout and it's all it's becoming transports and industrials. It's so freaking interesting. So, what's up, man? Yeah, I think there's a lot there, isn't there? But again, I own this super long term. I don't know, man. I you know I I don't know if people have to rush into it.
I look at it like like here this is where I would start with it. I'll get rid of the pre and the post. And anyone can create this chart. Like it's not a super secret chart. It's just a three and a five and an eight on a 15minute. You guys can create it for yourselves. It's not it's not rocket science. But like if you really look at it, we had a shot here where it started trying to do this, right? And then it rolled over and red on top means stop, right? All right. So then right on top means stop and then green on top means go. And so then I look at this little area like right in here. Look at it. And you hit a 58 cross right in there because the red's the the eight and that's the five. And you stop dead. So, I think as long as you're not breaking that, you're probably good. Like, you could probably come down and this thing could just trade around and get like whacked around a little bit. But, if you were trying to, you know, you just want to stay away from it when red's on top, right? Red right red on top means stop, right? It's not really rocket science. You know, I'm not the brightest bulb, so I have to color code things.
Um, but, you know, even when you're short them and you see that, it's like so easy. Like even like this, you know, I got I just got so flumxed because and I did it on this one too because I just got so angry, but like I really should have uh really closed it uh when it happened and then just waited to put it back on. Um because it was such it's such an easy short when they break like that, right? Like all you're doing is just oh just I'll just trail the eight, right? and then it falls down and then you're like, "Okay, well, I'm above the the three, you know, which you've never done, but it's just just a monster. It was a monster trade and I got, you know, I don't know. I'm wrestling with that one mentally because I should have closed it." Which one were we talking about? What were we talking about, Willis? Oracle.
So, I I'm not going to I mean, I did add to my super I have a very long long-term position in this that's out years and I did add to it, but I don't sell. So, but I could be early here, dude. I I don't know how this goes with AI and how IGV miraculously just holds this level. I I truly don't. Um maybe it does, you know, maybe it does, but I you know, I'm trying to see if it does. And I look at this and I really, you know, from a technical standpoint, that's like really nice, you know, like that's really really nice. So maybe you do hold. Maybe it's time to start looking at those names a little bit, you know. Hold on. What's he want? What's that one want? It's my son. Hold on. Never gets never gets old. Every day is a box of chocolates.
All right. Um I definitely think CW Yeah, I do like I do like doing this, dude. I'm not going to lie. It's like people always ask like, "Why do you do this?" I'm like, I freaking love it. It's so rewarding. That's it. Kill gold. More for me. Fine by me. That means they're going to slaughter silver. Have you seen this? Have you been watching this? FNDF. So, these are like the best companies overseas. And then you compare it to the spy. I've run this on Saturday videos now. I've been running it for like a month. Hopefully hopefully people will get it. What's going on? This This is where he said this is where he told the world, "We're going to tariff you if you don't give us Greenland." You're trying to figure out what happened. And that was after this. Just kidding. No tariffs.
So, uh, good morning from rainy Phoenix. Good morning from Miami. I was actually able to put the top down today, which was nice. Um I These are These are Ruk uh Ruku, I think. Is that what they're called? Or something. I forget what they're called. These I think they're like That's what they are. Rya or something. Hold on. I'll find them. Um glasses. Uh Roa. I don't know why I called them Roku. Roa. Um, I don't even know if they make these anymore, this kind, but you definitely you definitely want them. And you need to you need to look at the the kinds, too. So, I don't have any affiliation with them here. Hold on, dude. I'll just drop that in there. That should work, right? That link. Should that work? That should work for everybody. I think I just dropped the link in there. So, you guys go to town. Okay. So, that link's not going to work because it's too big. Is that what's going to happen? All right. Just go here, Roa. Thank you.
Um, I'm going to have to jump, guys. I got a lot to do here. So, hello from Thailand. Hello from Miami. Yeah, I think they have to. Um, and I think it's going to go h. You know, the best way to hedge it is to sell. I mean, if you're in it, you have to make a decision. Are you willing to go all the way back down to 20 for $5? If the answer is no, sell. Like, I I mean, you have to do what you're comfortable with. Like how do you hedge that? You could sell calls against it, but that's only going to be a flea on a nat if it breaks like a twig, right? You could buy puts, but I think the puts are going to be super expensive. I think you're better off looking at the short end of the market. You know, um I don't know that people are going to be buying this. Like if I go back to Jan, where have I gone? Right? So if I look at that and then I go like HYG for example and I go back to January here, right? So like hold on. So we'll just find like there's Jen. So they're buying B they'll buy bonds, right? But they're they're looking for yield and I don't think they want to be tied long term. So I see because I I just don't think they want to, but I they want the yield, right? So like if you look at the two-year over the same period of time and so if we go to the two-year, this is what I do on my days off. So if I go to the two-year right here, right? And you measure the difference here between, you know, that drop like it's 20% increase in your bond price. If you do that with TLT over the same period in time, like here's Jen, right? Jen first. Where is Jen? Like right here. Right. All right. So, hold on. Where's Jen first? Right here. All right. So, cool. And then you measure out like you're up 3%. They don't People do not want to tie to us long term anymore right now. Everything is shortterm. Everything. So, I hope that helps.
More bonding. Yay. Yeah. I mean, I I buy it. I buy it and trade it a lot. Um, you know, what what do I think is interesting? I think, you know, where do I look for it for EWI since that's how you asked me? Um, you know, 125, like if it can get back to like the 12, I think that's a super interesting area where I add. Um, I'll also add if it breaks that and gets to the 22. The only thing that's fundamentally going to change about that is if all of a sudden Samsung doesn't need, you know, we don't need chips anymore. Like I can't even say it with straight face. So, but that's how I would look at it.
Um, hello from Spain. Spain's market's on fire. um AWP. And you know, again, I think these markets look great, but you definitely want to take your time. Um uh not for me. No, thank you. No, no, no, no, no, no. All right, guys. I'm out of here. Make good choices.