Transcription
Every year in your fantasy leagues, there are guys who don't just have a good season, but they have a league-winning season. They break fantasy football. And once again this year, there are a handful of players who fit that criteria. So, in this video, we're going to break down the seven players who could genuinely break fantasy football this year. And of course, this is all based on where they go in drafts.
And we're going to start off with Rashee Rice. And I am completely baffled. I am completely confused that Rashee Rice is still going right now. We're in August. He's still going in round three of fantasy drafts. Let's just start with some background on last year. Last year was a limited sample. There's a suspension. He only plays like half the season, but he gets 18.8 fantasy points per game. Okay, that would be borderline top five amongst wide receivers, right? He goes out there. Not only does he get 18.8 fantasy points per game, the guy's only playing in eight games, right? 78 targets. So, he sees 9.8 targets per game. And plenty of these targets were in the red zone. Plenty of these targets led to big fantasy performances. In fact, Rashee Rice last year, in terms of how important he was for the Chiefs in terms of design plays, they designed the offense around him, and in the red zone, he was the most important player in football when he was on the field as far as pass catchers go. Number one with a 46% target share in the red zone. Insane. Number one with 55% of the plays that he was on the field for were designed for him. He was the first read. They were end-arounds. They were little scoop plays. Whatever it might have been. Unbelievable numbers. So much so that this all factored out to him being ranked fourth overall according to PlayerProfiler stats here in fantasy points per route run. Every time the dude ran a route last year, he almost earned 0.6 fantasy points. He was literally averaging almost a reception just from running a route in terms of fantasy scoring. This is mind-boggling.
Now, I should also call out, and the reason why some people might not want to draft him is because the guy's an idiot. And you might be like, "He's not an idiot." Just go look at all the off all the stuff he's been accused of off the field. He's been guilty of off the field. He's been suspended for off the field. The guy's an idiot. But, because of that, at least as far as fantasy football purposes goes, he's going to play week one right now, and you're getting a discount. And we're also getting the good news that as of right now, Patrick Mahomes should be ready for week one. As we've known if you've been following, this is Zane Dhanani over on Twitter. Uh he continues to be the cheapest price point that he's been in drafts, and it's also driving down the price point of Rashee Rice because people think that Patrick Mahomes won't be healthy based on all the reporters, Ian Rapoport right here, says the expectation is Mahomes is going to play. He's already practicing. Everything looks good. And the interesting thing here for Rashee Rice, as I pull up the team changes tracker in the Fantasy Blueprint, these are the biggest changes on the off season side offensive side of the ball this off season, whether it be the NFL draft, uh free agency, or trades. Look at this right here. Wide receivers brought in? Nobody. Wide receivers that left? Marquise uh Brown, Hollywood Brown, who was actually a decent slot wide receiver for them at times last year. And wide receivers brought in in the draft? Fifth round wide receiver Cyrus Allen. I don't expect him to make an impact right away year one. If he did, it would be out of nowhere kind of. So, what does this mean? They effectively brought in nobody. They basically kicked out Marquise Brown. So, the target competition last year is basically the exact same if not a little weaker. In fact, the exact target competition, Tyquan Thornton, who re-signed this off season. Okay, downfield threat, not like any type of amazing wide receiver to see like a 20 to 30% target share. Xavier Worthy, who at this point in fantasy drafts is like a value, but for the most part, the beginning of his career has been disappointing. Although last year he basically played all season injured. And then it's Rashee Rice. And look at the depth. Cyrus Allen, fifth rounder. Nikko Remigio. Like there's nobody here. Oh, Travis Kelce re-signed a deal this off season. He's another year older. He really wasn't all that great last year. So, you're getting a guy last year in Rashee Rice, who we just said had a 46% red zone target share with no new added competition, just aging competition in Travis Kelce. Perfect. Design play rate, that should stay up as well. And Patrick Mahomes is expected to be ready for week one. How is this guy going in round three? He produced like a first-round pick when he was on the field last year. People are just scared of maybe Mahomes' injury, maybe the boneheadedness of Rashee Rice, which is fair. But as of right now, he's playing week one, and so is Patrick Mahomes. So, if you can, if Rashee Rice falls into round three of your drafts, if you argued with me that you think he should be a top 12 player this year, I'd say that's a little bit steep, but it's not crazy. This guy is literally a first-round caliber type wide receiver when he's on the field for the Kansas City Chiefs, Rashee Rice. And if you want to say Mahomes might not be as mobile this year off the torn ACL, that helps Rice even more. Rice operates out of the slot for the most part, yards after the catch, ability, the quick throws out of the slot, even more receptions and targets for Rashee Rice because of the Mahomes if the narrative is he's banged up, he won't be as mobile. So, give me Rashee Rice.
And now another guy who I'm not getting a lot of just because he goes in round four, which is an amazing round for fantasy football this year, so I'm kind of getting just different guys depending on the draft that I'm in, but I do think he could genuinely break fantasy football this year, a second-year player, Luther Burden, the sophomore wide receiver who flashed as a rookie for the Chicago Bears. This is a guy who if we take it all the way back to what he did at Missouri in in college, right? And the reason why he was a second-round pick last year and not a first-round pick was because he kind of had the down year in 2024, right? 2024, there were some other reasons here like coaching decisions, different quarterbacks, right? A 20% target share, only 676 yards. But in 2023, he broke out onto the scene. This is a big reason why he was still able to be a second-round pick despite his bad 2024, 1,200 receiving yards, 33% target share, 86 catches, was one of like the two or three best wide receivers in all of college football in 2023. If he would have just had an average to good season and not the like a pretty bad season in 2024, he would have been a first-round pick. So, this is a first-round type of a talent that now you're getting in year two and you're still getting him at the end of round four, so I think there's a lot of upside here.
Now, when you look at what he did in his rookie season, obviously there wasn't a lot going on here, especially earlier in the year. On the entire season, he only played 40% of the snaps. Um he was behind Olamide Zaccheaus in this offense, uh which had now kind of looked silly based on how much he broke out down the stretch, Luther Burden. Just 47 catches, three per game, just 652 yards, 43 and a half per game. I mean, back in the day, 47 catches and 652 yards for a second-round wide receiver when you're competing with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, right? Other first-round talents, that would be good, but these days we want the guys to produce right away in fantasy, so this was somewhat of a let down. However, the efficiency for Luther Burden was fantastic. Check this out. His 2.79 yards per out run ranked third in the NFL, and he was fourth in QBR when he was targeted. Basically, when the ball came his way, he was great. And in terms of like beating zone and man coverage, he was also great according to Matt Harmon's reception perception. Be sure to follow that over on Twitter. Some highlights, a 71.1% success rate versus man. That's good. 80% success rate versus zone. That's good. Strong success rates and usage in the intermediate zones. That's good. So, he's not just like this short yardage gadget guy which we already knew. And high-end results as a tackle tackle breaker in space, which we definitely knew from college. This guy was just able to break tackles and create on his own. And he really got to break out down the stretch last year according to Rotoviz game split tool right here. From weeks 14 to 18, when Rome Odunze was dealing with the stress fracture in his foot and the foot problems, those final four games of the season, Luther Burden had a nice little breakout. 15.2 fantasy points per game, 81 receiving yards per game. His targets more than doubled from three in the first 11 games to 6.5. He just took on a larger role in this offense. He was a borderline top 12 wide receiver during this time. He had massive breakout games like in week 17, one of the best games of the entire season against the 49ers 49ers versus Bears. Eight catches, 138 yards, and a touchdown in that game. A game in which DJ Moore didn't do anything even though he was on the field. A game in which Rome Odunze was out still with that injury. And I just mentioned DJ Moore. Let's pull it up in the team changes tracker. DJ Moore is obviously gone. He was traded away this off season to be the number one wide receiver for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, which is good for DJ Moore, but it's also good for one Luther Burden because the only guy they ever brought in to replace DJ Moore, a third round speedster in Zay Jones not going to really be much of a threat in my opinion. And then wide receivers in free agency, Scotty Miller, depth body, special teams body if he even makes the team. And Equanimeous St. Brown. Equanimeous St. Brown comes over from the rivals Detroit Lions. I actually like Equanimeous St. Brown. I think he's kind of a value. I think he's an upgrade over Equanimeous St. Brown, but still not going to be somebody that's going to take away significant target share from a Luther Burden. With DJ Moore out, you're still going to have target competition in Cole Kmet. You're still going to have target competition in Rome Odunze. Each week one of those guys can pop off, but Luther Burden is the guy that can take the next step as a slot wide receiver in this offense. >> Especially when you're in a Ben Johnson offense that so far this off season he recently said according to Ben Devine over on Twitter. Be sure to follow him. He basically said when Luther Burden gets the ball in his hands, he's a problem child. I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now. The way he's approached this off season, he's been electric. That's good to see. Also Zane Dahani who's been following all these beat reports this off season, he says this is why I believe Luther Burden is the short to intermediate role in this offense. Ben Johnson does not talk about Jameson Williams as the yards after the catch guy, which makes sense more of the outside perimeter X wide receiver, but he does talk about Luther Burden that way. Why is this very important? Well, Ben Johnson with the Detroit Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown was that yards after the catch guy out of the slot. They're not the same exact type of a player, but if he's in a similar role, obviously that leads to a lot of targets, yardage, yards after the catch upside for Luther Burden. So like I said, round four is a loaded range. You have Luther Burden going at the end of round four. You have other guys I really like like Garrett Wilson. You have Ladd McConkey in this range. You have Cam Skattebo sometimes. Josh Jacobs is still falling into this range, but Luther Burden is definitely one of the targets in this range. A loaded round four. And he's definitely a player entering year two in a promising offense, year two in Ben Johnson's system, year two for Caleb Williams in that system. Definitely a player who could genuinely break fantasy football this year.
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Now we go back to the Kansas City Chiefs and I want to talk about their starting running back Kenneth Walker, who joins the Chiefs backfield that has absolutely no competition. Now if we scroll down to Kenneth Walker, you're going to look last year with the Kansas City Chiefs and in the regular season, he was basically a bust. Now on the stats on the surface, it's not like the worst thing ever, stayed healthy, which has been a problem for him in the past, all 17 games, has over 1,000 rushing yards, averages a very impressive 4.7 yards per carry, that's up there in terms of tops in the leagues, has 282 receiving yards, so you're talking about 1,300 yard season, five touchdowns. The problem was he was a fourth round pick in most leagues. So when you're a fourth round pick and you're only getting 20 11 fantasy points per game, 28th in the NFL because Zach Charbonnet was stealing goal line red zone work and receptions, that's obviously not going to be great. You had the production of like a seventh round pick, even though people took you in round four. So he was a bust last year. But obviously then Zach Charbonnet gets hurt in the playoffs, Kenneth Walker has a great NFC Championship, he has a great Super Bowl, he wins Super Bowl MVP. In this offseason, he was too expensive for the Chiefs to resign or for the Seahawks to resign, which means he became a free agent where he got a max contract, quote unquote max contract from the Kansas City Chiefs, three years, 45 million dollars with nearly 29 to 30 million dollars guaranteed. So he's going to be just based on the money alone, right? You follow the money, these general managers, these organizations, they only tell you what they're thinking in terms of like their teams and who they care about couple of times a year. When it comes to free agency, signing contracts, when it comes to the NFL draft, which leads to rookie contracts and actually having to open up their pocketbooks, right there their their wallets. And based on this off season the team changes tracker in the fantasy blueprint, you could see that the Kansas City Chiefs, yeah, they told us that Kenneth Walker is their guy. They might even build the entire offense around him considering we looked at this chart earlier with Rashee Rice, they didn't sign any wide receivers, they didn't draft any significant wide receivers or running backs, nobody until the fifth round or later, and they got rid of Isaiah Pacheco, their starting running back from last year, Kareem Hunt, their starting running back kind of a 1A 1B from last year, Marquise Brown, a top three receiver for them last year. And all they brought in this off season was late round wide receivers and running backs and Kenneth Walker, right? So, what does that tell me? It means they gave all the money to Kenneth Walker, they didn't bring in any other flashy players, they're going to run it back with Rashee Rice who's finally not going to be suspended or injured, and they're going to run it back with Kenneth Walker. That is going to be this entire offense. And when you look at the backfield competition, there's not much of it. Amari De Mercado is like the RB2 right now, fifth round rookie. Emari Johnson, maybe he's the RB2 if he can win it in camp. Meshach Smith is a seventh round rookie from last year wasn't really involved. I will say Amari De Mercado I actually think he's a savvy veteran, he's a good third down pass catching back, he could be a sneaky two-minute and four-minute offense back in this offense, but like in terms of like who is the favorite to be the first and second down back, the goal line back, the clear starting running back to play 70 plus percent of the snaps, maybe even see a larger pass catching role than we expect, it's obviously Kenneth Walker. And check out this very helpful tweet right here from Kyle on Twitter. He's been a good follow, seen a lot of his tweets lately. If you're watching this, shout out to you, but be sure to follow him, Kyle M_MM or FF. He says, "Kenneth Walker's about to inherit a lucrative goal line role for the first time in his career." It's very true. Over the last five seasons, top six running backs have averaged 4.1 fantasy points per game on rushes inside the 10-yard line. However, Walker has never cleared two and a half fantasy points in those exact splits. Meanwhile, last year Kareem Hunt and since 2024 basically has, and he said Kareem Hunt commanded 78% of the Chiefs rush attempts inside the five-yard line over that span, sixth highest in the NFL. That's a lot of information right there, might have been a lot to read. It basically summarizes that Kenneth Walker has never had a clear goal line role. He either didn't have a good enough offense, he had a pass-happy offense in the red zone, or he lost goal line touches last year to Zach Charbonnet. However, he's now on a Chiefs team that has been feeding a pretty bad Kareem Hunt the last 2 years left and right goal line touches. Now you're going to have a younger, more explosive, tackle-breaking ability Kenneth Walker in that exact same role. A 10-plus touchdown season is likely for him if he stays healthy. So Kenneth Walker late in round two of fantasy draft, second half of round two is a really good pick right now. Round four and round two are the loaded rounds of drafts this year. They are the rounds that I love right now. So obviously there's a lot of other good picks in round two. You have your Saquon Barkleys, you have your Chase Browns like we like, uh Drake London we've mentioned, but Kenneth Walker is up there, arguably the best pick in round two.
And arguably the best pick in round five, and he almost goes in round six now, which is a crime in my opinion, is Tyeler Waller a tight end, one of the I would say elite tight ends. Last year this guy, even though he was a rookie, even though all the hype was in, you know, like Kolsen Loveland, which one's better for dynasty, which one's better for real life, they both had good years. Tyeler Waller though, top 10 tight end in his first ever season as a rookie, number three in targets amongst tight ends. 6.6 per game, 112 overall. The guy was fantastic, and he was even better the first 13 weeks of the season when his starting quarterback Daniel Jones didn't go down with an Achilles tear. Check this out. During those first 13 weeks, Tyeler Waller or the first 12 weeks cuz they had a bye as well, uh Tyeler Waller averaged 13 fantasy points per game, 57 receiving yards per game, double what he did before or after the Daniel Jones injury. But 13 fantasy points per game was a borderline top five tight end last year as a rookie when Daniel Jones was healthy. That is very important to be calling out. Now this off season they ended up bringing back Daniel Jones despite the Achilles tear. A 2-year $100 million contract this off season makes sense just based on like some of the restricted free agency stuff they were doing based on how they kind of leveraged against themselves in some ways, gave a lot of leverage to Daniel Jones, but he's back. Now he is coming off of a torn Achilles, but if anything, that helps the tight end who operates out of the slot in in line often in this offense. If the quarterback can't throw down field as much, doesn't have as much mobility, he's going to dump it off to his extremely athletic and maybe number one pass catcher Tyeler Waller. Now in terms of the team changes tracker this off season, in my opinion, his biggest competition just left. His most experienced, his most reliable, Michael Pittman is now gone. Michael Pittman, who has had 111 targets each of the past two seasons in this Colts offense. Who do they replace him with? A seventh-round wide receiver, Deion Burks, and Nick Westbrook, a boundary wide receiver who's nowhere near as crafty or the possession receiver like a Michael Pittman. So, what does that mean? Means there's a lot of targets and high-quality targets in the short to intermediate and slot parts of the field for Tyler Warren to soak up. Now, Tyler Warren will have competition. He'll compete with Alec Pierce, who got a massive contract this off season, although he had surgery in March. It's going to take 4 to 6 months. He might not even be healthy week one, and he doesn't compete in the same areas of the field as Tyler Warren, short to middle to intermediate parts of the field. And then there's Josh Downs, who should be an outside number two receiver, who will compete in those short to intermediate parts of the field. But, the Colts are going to throw the ball 450 to 500-plus times this year. So, if Josh Downs earns 100 targets, that doesn't harm Tyler Warren's upside. I think Tyler Warren is loaded this year or in line to see 125-plus targets and once again be a top three tight end. So, where he currently goes at the end of round five in fantasy drafts, he's probably like my favorite elite tight end, right? You don't have to spend a second-round pick like a Brock Bowers or a Trey McBride. You don't have to spend most likely a third-round pick like a Colston Loveland. Tyler Warren at the end of the fifth, early sixth round, I feel very comfortable taking him there for the potential upside and target volume he's about to see. He could easily break fantasy football this year at the tight end position.
Now, this next player is somebody that I'm not getting a lot of in drafts, but I'm honestly very scary because I also believe he could break fantasy in 2026. And that man's name is second-year running back, TreVeyon Henderson. Again, I'm not getting a lot of him immediately. I think he currently goes around two early, but if he ends up having a breakout season, it really doesn't matter if he goes around two early. Let's scroll that down to what this guy did in college. In Ohio State, he was the first running back ever his final year there in 2024 against tough competition, competing with a fellow second-round running back in the NFL Draft in Quinshon Jenkins. He had 1,000 rushing yards. He averaged seven yards per carry. He had double-digit touchdowns, and he had 284 receiving yards. He was the first running back in college football history last year or in 2024, I should say, the year before his final year of college, to have double-digit touchdowns, to average 7 yards per carry, over 1,000 rushing yards, and over 250 receiving yards. This guy can do it all. And oh yeah, he's a great pass protector, as well. And in his rookie season, like by all accounts, he was pretty solid. 911 rushing yards, 211 receiving yards. He had almost almost 1,150 total yards, 35 catches was top 20 at the position, 10 touchdowns. Like, all of this points to a very good year. However, people steamed him up in fantasy drafts. He should have been a fifth or a sixth-round pick, and he would have paid that off. But, because he had a big explosive touchdown run in the preseason, he got jolted up the rankings in August to the third or fourth round, and obviously he was a bust at that point. He was competing with Rhamondre. He wasn't even the starter. But, when he actually was the starter, when Rhamondre was injured for the final month to month and a half of the season, whether it was because he missed games or was on the injury report, in that final second half of the season, over those nine games, Trayveon Henderson quietly averaged 17 fantasy points per game between his rushing and receiving yards. He was averaging nearly 90 total yards per game, over two catches per game. He had multiple four multi-touchdown games during that stretch, so eight touchdowns in those nine games. He was one of the best running backs in football the second half of the season. However, Rhamondre came back right before the playoffs, and then in the postseason, Trayveon Henderson went back to the shelf, and they didn't trust him in those big key moments on their way to lose Super Bowl appearance. But, let's not forget how good he was last year, including, as you see right here from Pat Pat Fitzmad Fitzmaurice over on Twitter, he says, "When Rhamondre Stevenson missed weeks 9 through 11 last year, Henderson had 330 yards and five touchdowns in those three games." So, over 100 yards, nearly two touchdowns per game. He was the RB3 over that stretch. Only behind Achane and CMC. That's important, because if anything happens to Rhamondre, an aging running back who has a lot of wear and tear on his tires, if he gets injured, misses some time or the entire season, if he starts fumbling a lot like last year, and they finally say, "Let's go away from this guy." Or, if he just ends up being inefficient, because he's an aging running back, Henderson can clearly take over and have a lot of upside, like we saw during that stretch last year. It kind of reminds me in a lot of ways of like Jahmyr Gibbs from past seasons, right? Jahmyr Gibbs in his rookie season, if you remember, oops and whoops, he ended up starting off slow that year, but as the season went on, he really picked it up. He ended up finishing as the RB8 in fantasy points per game, 16.1 fantasy points overall in the year. Similar to Henderson, who over the second half of the season last year averaged 17 fantasy points per game. And then we saw in Jahmyr Gibbs' second year, another aging running back in David Montgomery he was competing with. Gibbs in the second half of that started season started to take on more of a role in the red zone, more of a three-down role at times as well. There's a chance that happens this year with Rhamondre Henderson. His backfield competition, as you would expect, is Rhamondre Stevenson. That's the big one, it's Jam Miller, a rookie. Outside of that, like Elijah Mitchell is here, who's interesting, although he can't stay healthy and now he's a lot older. So, it's basically just Rhamondre Stevenson. Now, I will say, I do think Rhamondre Stevenson will start the season season as the starter, but by week six to eight, does Rhamondre Stevenson have the durability? Does he have the efficiency at this point in his career to continue to hold off Trayveon Henderson, who's just a dynamite? I don't know. I don't think so. So, Henderson, who right now goes as a late fourth-round pick, early fifth-round pick, I think it's an appropriate range for him to be going. He might go a couple of picks too early. And like I said, it's just a loaded fourth round. So, I'm taking these other guys like we mentioned earlier, Luther Burden, uh Garrett Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Cam Skatabu in the fourth round. In the fifth round, there's other guys I like like David Montgomery, who I think has a more secure role even though he's not more dynamic, Jaylen Waddle, who I think has the all all the upside in the world with Denver this year. But that doesn't mean Trayveon Henderson does not have the upside to break fantasy football. I'm very scared that I don't have as much of him as some other players.
Before we keep going, I just want to let you know that if you want my free top 50 overall rankings that will help you dominate the early rounds, the first five rounds of your fantasy drafts this year, you can check it out with the link in the description below or by heading to fantasyrankingsfree.com. All you do is you go right here and you enter your email, you click get the top 50, and then it will go to a page that basically is a little video of me telling you what happens next. Basically me just me just explaining to check your your your your inbox, your email inbox, and if it's not there, just be sure to check your spam or promotional folders. That is going to be a top 50 rankings, it's updated all off season, will help you dominate the first four to five rounds of your draft. Those are the rounds that you cannot mess up. If you mess up the first four four to five rounds of your draft, especially your first, second, and third round pick, you're dead in the water. You're not winning your fantasy league, and it's going to be an uphill battle even to make the playoffs. So, check it out right now so you can dominate the first five rounds of your draft. fantasyrankingsfree.com, totally free, linked in the description as well.
All right, next up, I want to talk about DJ Moore because yes, you might be laughing because he's a 29-year-old wide receiver on another team in his NFL career, but I'm going to say this guy does have the upside to break fantasy football. I mean, this is a guy who we've seen him have a massive season in the past. Was that season last year with the Chicago Bears when he was competing with Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Dante Pettis in a run-first offense during the second half of the season? No. He stayed healthy for the third straight season. He's durable, but he only had 85 targets. He completely disappeared at times. He had these two touchdown games as well at times, and it was like, "Oh, maybe DJ Moore is going to actually get going." Never ended up happening. He just had a couple of games here and there based on scheme. Only averaged 10 fantasy points per game. Went in the fourth and fifth rounds of a lot of fantasy drafts, so finishing as the wide receiver 41 was a complete bust. But just a couple of years ago with Justin Fields as his quarterback, at of all the quarterbacks in the world, a terrible quarterback, we saw DJ Moore be a top 10 wide receiver. Again, that was 2 years ago. It was a different offense. It was a different coaching staff. It was a different quarterback, right? He was younger, but he still had the upside of being 17 fantasy point per game DJ Moore. Have we seen that the last 2 years? I would say flashes of it for sure, but we also haven't had the same exact opportunity and situation like he does this year. Because this year, he was traded and then signed to a pretty big 2-year $49 million contract for the Buffalo Bills to be their number one wide receiver, and in my opinion, they're pretty clear-cut number one wide receiver. You have Khalil Shakir there, who's basically just a slot merchant, not going to be a guy who operates down field. And then you have Joshua Palmer in his second year in his deal with this team. A rookie Skyler Bell, who I like out of UConn, but he was a middle to late round pick in the draft, so I don't know if he'll be very involved. And Keon Coleman, who it seems like they all but don't trust and are already giving up in based on the contract and the trade for DJ Moore. So, to me, DJ Moore is like the clear-cut number one. The number two in this offense will be some combination of Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, who operate to the short to middle parts of the field. DJ Moore is going to be that outside boundary receiver who really Josh Allen hasn't had a reliable veteran there since Stefon Diggs, who every year with the Bills, Stefon Diggs averaged over 150 targets per season. Maybe that's DJ Moore this year. Maybe it's not 150 targets, but even if it's 130, that's perfect for where he goes in drafts. Because he currently goes as a fifth round pick in fantasy drafts, and I think that's completely fine. Like if you miss out on Jaylen Waddle in this range, and you don't need a running back like a DJ or David Montgomery, I think DJ Moore is a great pick. I definitely want him over Jameson Williams in this range. Um I would probably take him at this point over a Davante Adams. Uh Mike Evans is a toss-up. I do want Terry McLaurin, I will say, over DJ Moore. But if McLaurin is gone in this range, if Jaylen Waddle's gone, DJ Moore is the next man up, and I do think he has the upside to break fantasy. Would you be completely shocked that if Josh Allen, MVP Josh Allen, best quarterback in the NFL, if you disagree with it, fine, top two, top three, in the NFL's number one wide receiver finished with 1,300 yards, eight touchdowns, 70 catches? No, you wouldn't be shocked.
And you wouldn't be shocked if this next guy does that, Nico Collins, who you can currently get at the end of the second end of the second, sorry, sometimes in the third round of fantasy drafts. That's an absolute steal. Just think about this. If you have the number one overall pick, and you take Breece Hall Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, and then you come around at the two three turn and get Tank Dell and Nico Collins, those are arguably three first-round picks. That is an unbelievable roster. And Nico Collins is just going to have like no competition this year, right? He has obviously C.J. Stroud, but even in C.J. Stroud's terrible season last year, when he wasn't accurate, when he was throwing a lot of interceptions, where clearly looked like um he lost his confidence, even in that season, Nico Collins, despite the entire defenses scheming against Nico Collins, he still finished as a top 10 fantasy receiver in points per game for the third straight season. And he didn't didn't even have a lot of touchdowns. He did it based on volume, despite missing another two games last year. He had 1,100 yards, he had 71 catches. He just had absolutely no target competition. And once again, this year he's not going to have a lot of target competition. Last year, the next closest receiver to Nico Collins was rookie Jayden Higgins, who in all 17 games only had 41 catches and 525 yards. And this year it's the exact same target competition. It's Jayden Higgins entering year two. It's slot wide receiver uh Jaylen Nowell entering year two. It's Tank Dell, who's finally going to return for the first time in over a year and a half to nearly 2 years after a gruesome injury. He'll compete for a slot role with Jaylen Noel. So, what are you getting from target competition? It's still Dalton Kincaid if you pull up the tight ends or Dalton Schultz, I should say, sorry. If you pull up the tight ends, there's no new target competition here. And we already saw Nico Collins dominate last year with the same target competition and a bad C.J. Stroud. What if the offensive line changes this off season helps C.J. Stroud and he gets even more upside, especially touchdowns for Nico Collins? Well, in that situation, it obviously becomes even better for Nico. Nico, who this off season signed a 2-year extension. He got $17 million added to that $9 million this season, $8 million next season because they know he's the guy and they don't want him leaving. Nico Collins, who as you can see from Hayden Winks chart right here, he's been the wide receiver three in yards per target over the last 3 years. You can see right here up into the right. The better you are up into the right, the the the more you are up into the right, the better. He's right there with guys like Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, George Pickens, and Brandon Aiyuk since the 2023 season yards per target. He's also top five in yards per route run, the best wide receiver stat in my opinion, over the last 5 years. The guy has been fantastic. And like I mentioned at the top about talking about Nico Collins, he goes as the 24th overall pick in drafts, so he's a second or a third round pick. Just an unbelievable start to your drafts if you can go, let's just say for example, Bijan, uh, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins. Bijan, Nico Collins, and Rashee Rice. Just unbelievable starts if you have that top end of the the draft order this year. It's great. Nico Collins obviously has the all all the upside in the world to break fantasy this year.
So, there you have it. Those are the seven players that can genuinely break fantasy football this year. But if you want to see the five running backs that I cannot stop drafting. I'm drafting them everywhere right now, whether it's mock drafts, best ball. Well, check out this video right here. These are the five players that I can't stop drafting for 2026 fantasy football.