Transcription
And hello to everyone. Happy to be back for the Friday, November 14, 2025 broadcast. We're back with Bitcoin flirting with $96,000, and yes, the $100,000 mark is lost. We'll see in a moment what's going on, as it's not super encouraging in the short term. Ether is below $3002 - $1150 on the daily. We're down 10% for XRP as well, -11% for Solana, and -11% for Chainlink, well beaten down. In fact, we're approaching -12%. So already, in the top 10, we're mostly between -8% and -12%, and the further we go towards the top 20, the more it continues. Avalanche is dropping below $16. We're down 12% for Polygon, -10.45% for Canton Network, -12% for Aave, which is falling to 33rd place, at $188, below $2.9 billion in capitalization. We have meme coins like Pepe, Pump.fun, etc., down 12%, and this top 50-60 closes with Sky, Quant, as well as Arbitrum, Vin, Atom, Cosmos, which itself is at $3 and can no longer recover, and so they are all between -5% and -10%. And where it really hurts, somewhere, is that when we look at the monthly performance, we're starting to see underperformance of -30%, -40%, etc., again. So it's very, very difficult again for altcoins. We're back in the crypto fear and greed index at 16, in extreme fear. And when we look at the 4-hour price action, unfortunately, it's much more readable. I want to say that when we go up, when we go down, we make lower highs and lower lows. And the fact that we've lost here, somewhere between $100,200 and $98,990. Unfortunately, if the week closes like this, and I think it will, we definitively see that the sellers are in control. And now the zone, we'll see it in a moment, which could serve as a semi-support, in quotes, in the short term, would be around $80,000 to $83,000, which would correspond more or less to the $3 trillion mark for the crypto total. In any case, what could have changed the game from a news or fundamental perspective in the short term? Well, I think the United States is slightly derailing. We were left with the fact, with On Sapience, that a Bitcoin bought above $115,000 was resold at a loss since the halving. But above all, we had Michael Burry, the oracle of 2008, who had sold, who had shorted the real estate market. And in recent days, he was heavily short on Nvidia, on Palantir, etc., on many big tech stocks in the US. And a reversal of the situation. We saw a paper published in the last 24 hours in which he simply said he was closing his fund, and for now, there's a lot of speculation around that. It's not a liquidation, it's not that he lost everything, and there's apparently a transfer to a new fund, even though on X, they're gloating about him failing, in quotes. So I think there's something a bit deeper going on. So that was a first domino that worried the markets a little. Although today, I don't think it's considered an oracle to the point of causing American finance to fail, of course, but it contributed a bit to this sentiment, which was especially reinforced when the US government shutdown was lifted by Caroline Livit, as highlighted by Finecoo, who declared quite simply that the October unemployment and inflation figures would probably never be disclosed. So for the markets, not having the main figures that are the catalysts driving the Fed's decisions means that the Fed will be moving completely blind until the end of 2025. And that's total indecision and uncertainty for the markets. And I think that's what's reinforcing this short-term sentiment with Donald Trump saying, "Yes, we'll give $2,000 to all Americans." Apparently, there's almost no chance that will pass. He also wanted to inject $20 trillion, we don't really know what that's about either. And also to extend mortgage terms to 50 years instead of 30. So we're at the end of this forward march. The question is, we're talking about the US economy in its entirety. Has the AI bubble itself come to an end and will it burst quite violently between late 2025 and the first half of 2026? That's the only question that can linger, and all this with gold having regained a lot of energy immediately on this backdrop of uncertainty, where for now, according to Goldman Sachs, as also highlighted by Ray Dalio, US stocks will no longer be leading for the next 10 years in their forecasts. He thinks emerging markets will be leading with +11%. Asia-Pacific Japan at +10.3%, Japan at +8%, Europe at +7%, and the US at +6.5%. So we risk seeing a reversal of what we've experienced from 2020 to 2025, and even in the last two years, 2024-2025, where tech and the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the S&P, performed incredibly well from the low point in April. That was also the case in 2024. So we're gradually entering this world that risks accepting, like a self-fulfilling prophecy, that yes, markets are not just tech, that yes, markets are not just AI, and that gradually, we're likely to return to reality a bit more. In the meantime, and as an introduction to the technical analysis, we have MicroStrategy, which is breaking out of this enormous consolidation rectangle. It had found a top near $600, perhaps $550 here at the end of 2024. And so we worked all of 2025 between approximately $230 and $450. Now, the purely technical breakout would bring us somewhere around $120. And that's something I strongly invite you to consider in the short term, since MicroStrategy apparently now has its MNAV below one, that's where it will start to get a bit tight in their system, although the first important deadlines for them are rather in 2028-29. So there's a good chance that by then, in any case, we'll cross our fingers for that, Bitcoin will be higher than it is today within 2-3 years. And then it's from there that we'll see if they really have strong foundations if things don't go as they expected. In any case, for the crypto total, we're at the lows of the previous two wicks, so around $3200, $3250. If this breaks, it's a return to $3000 with the 0.382 Fibonacci just below at $2.9 trillion. The 100-week moving average is at $2.8 trillion, the 200-week moving average is around $2 trillion. This means that if we have indeed topped, and I now think there's a very high chance that $125,000-$126,000 was the top of this cycle, much to the dismay of those who think we'll only go up forever, it would mean a return to the 200-week moving average, about -53% in terms of market cap, and we also have the 0.618 Fibonacci aligned around $2.08 trillion. So we have a perfectly logical zone for a bear market, which for now isn't fully launched, as we see we're on huge support around 42-43 for the weekly RSI, which we're already breaking on Bitcoin. We'll see that in a moment. Crypto Total 2 is losing momentum strongly. So again, we're on support, but we're below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages. When this breaks, it could be difficult. So no more, no less. If we finish this cycle, for the altcoins, we will have barely poked our heads above the previous ATH. We will have been completely exterminated, unfortunately, and I think that will create a generation, those from 2022 to 2025, extremely cautious and careful with altcoins. This will further strengthen the negative sentiment for altcoins in the next cycle. Unless, one day, we have monetary printing like we did during Covid, but for now, we are very, very far from that, of course. USDC USDT dominance, unfortunately, we spotted this evil reversal of stablecoins long in advance, which for now are not being spent and are rebounding in proportion to the crypto total. So 0.0808 towards the 200-week moving average which is at 0.09. In the summer of 2022, we reached 0.17 on this index. So we'll see what happens this time. Bitcoin at $97,000, we're losing the 50-week moving average at $103,000. I don't think the weekly will allow us to get back to $103 by this weekend. We can always hope. In any case, we have a clear structure break around $108,000. So I don't see why sellers would let go of the steak, in quotes, from now on. We've also broken this large ascending parallel channel we've had since the November 2022 low around $15,500, and which unfortunately hasn't even been retested at the top, which could have taken us to nearly $180,000 if we had really gotten excited. So I invite you to consider, as usual, that this is not a great short-to-medium term scenario that will unfold, and to protect yourselves. When we look at the Bitcoin RSI, support is around 43-44. We are losing it on the weekly. So, we see that during this entire upward phase we've experienced since November 2022, November 2025, we never lost this RSI zone around 44 again. If it accelerates downwards, of course, we'll visit near 20, the oversold area. Above or below. It will all depend on the frenzy that the bear market of this cycle will embrace. But in any case, when we talk again about the figures I'm mentioning now for the crypto total, we have today the 0.382 aligned at $83,845 with the 100-week moving average at $82,827, so roughly $83,000 to round numbers. The low point in spring was around $75,000-$76,000, the 0.5 Fibonacci. So we would have lost 50% of this upward movement, which is around $70,000. The 0.618 at $57,700 and the 200-week moving average. This is really the most important point, I think, to watch, and which institutions will now watch, which is around $55,400 today, with the large working zone just below if we want to scare ourselves, between $48,000 and $50,000. So clearly, we're aiming, in quotes, for this future bear market, if it occurs, for $55,000 as a low point, but we could very well work slightly below $50,000 or even return to $40,000, because we always take for granted that "yes, it will be less bad, in quotes, than last time, etc." We know how much during bear markets we can have very bad news that constantly appears, like a powerful wave of bad news, regulation, it's back to being anti-crypto, MicroStrategy starting to falter. Real old whales are selling Bitcoins that haven't moved in 15 years. And all of this means that when we're really in the thick of the bear market, it creates this constant animosity where everyone ends up selling at any price, while others, of course, even from $75,000-$80,000 here, I think, will start to reaccumulate heavily. So the 200-week moving average is -56%. If we go down to $50K, it's -60%. If we go down to $40K, it's -69%. Knowing that in the previous cycle it was -77%. So this would bring us in this cycle to around $28,800. I think today, seeing Bitcoin around $30,000 again would be quite extraordinary, where things would have to happen in the crypto market that are completely crazy, like what we saw with FTX, Terra Luna, etc. I don't think MicroStrategy is there yet. However, it remains one of the catalysts that could impact the price if we had ambiguous news coming out about this issue. Bitcoin dominance is stalling at the 20-week moving average around 60%. For Ether, the second cryptocurrency on the market, we're at the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which are around $3002-$3100. So we'll see how we can hold this zone, with a real support just below around $2850-$2900, the 200-week moving average around $2440. The next support is around $2150. In fact, this is the biggest support on the market for Ether, the real pivot zone is $2150. The next small intermediate support is around $2008, and finally the lows from two cycles ago that we touched on this cycle are around $1004. So it's quite complicated again, the future for Ether. If we go back into this zone, the best that could happen to us is to work between $2100 and $2400-$2500, so to defend this entire extended zone around the 200-week moving average, which has flattened out nicely, indicating price acceptance in this zone little by little. For Ether, will it do better in the next cycle? That's the whole question. In any case, on ETHBTC, it's been a big drop since the August 2025 low. We were at 0.043, we're back to 0.033. It's holding up quite well each time here, front-running the 50-week moving average which is at 0.03 on this ETHBTC ratio, but for now, when we look against the dollar, it's still quite complicated. In the US, the VIX is at 20, up 14% on the day. So again, we're starting to stretch the fear and volatility elastic on the S&P 500. We had precious metals rebound as well as rates, but it remains slight for now. The CAC 40 closed slightly in the red after making a new ATH for France. So we reached over 8300 points. The Nasdaq futures are in the red, the S&P futures too, but it's not yet an absolute rout. We've been doing the little yo-yo here around the highs for 3 weeks. If we also start to break this large ascending parallel channel like we did in 2023 for the 2025 purge at the time of Trump's tariffs, we know it can go down quite quickly. So let's say the zone to watch is the break of this large channel plus the 20-week moving average, which is currently around 6530 points. The RSI is very high, making a kind of double top around 70 RSI, and the MACD is crossing bearishly, also very, very high. So we could very well, unfortunately, see a sharp decline in the US market in the coming quarter, and perhaps after that, which would allow us to have a better spring if it were to purge at the end of 2025. It's a bad thing for a good thing, rather than prolonging it for 36 decades. But in the short term, we'll have to grit our teeth if that's what happens. The US dollar has indeed hit 100 points and is not passing for now, so around 99. Perhaps a small consolidation and support to look for on the 20-week moving average around 98. The total global money supply, including the US, Japan, Europe, and many other things, is integrated into this index. It's an index I found on social media that tries to take into account as much as possible. So we also see that perhaps we were at a double top in terms of global available liquidity. Despite this, we found short-term support in a zone we had already tagged back in 2021 and early 2022. So, are we going to crash in terms of liquidity? Will central banks let it happen? Will the US react in one way or another? These are many questions regarding this year 2026, which will certainly culminate in November with the midterm elections for Donald Trump. It should also be noted that the Russell, which represents US small caps, just like our altcoins, has done what Crypto Total 2 did in its time, but with a delay. For us, it was rather in December 2024, a high point, before being pushed back and not breaking through. So for now, it's a status quo for US small caps, which demonstrates once again that operators don't want to take risks in the short term. There's no point in dwelling on altcoins in the short term, and we'll also need to watch the miners and all those companies that are closely or remotely involved with crypto, with MicroStrategy at the forefront. So, as we saw last time, the structure was completely ugly, breaking the 100-week moving average here around $245. We have an RSI that is already almost at the gates of oversold, the MACD has completely purged. So frankly, for me, what would interest me for MicroStrategy is to see it again at $140. The long-term zone is between $130 and $145, with the 200-week moving average passing through there. This could serve as a first DCA zone, as we would have lost, if we return to this zone, about 75% for MSTR. Knowing that in the previous cycle, even when they had much less Bitcoin on their balance sheet, they lost 90%. So, as usual, I try to make ratios, thinking that the vast majority of companies that are better capitalized than before will perhaps lose a little less. This is something to keep in mind. In the meantime, we have the Bitcoin mining companies, HODLers, etc., losing 12%, 14%, 18%. Marathon down 1%, Hive similarly, Riot, Canaan, BMNR, with the first Ethereum Trust Company, it's been a while, by the way, that it's been stuck between $35 and around $62. So we're currently at a loss of -78%, even if it doesn't look like it on this chart. So again, we have the long-term 200-week moving average at $23. Perhaps this entire working zone we stayed in for a very long time around $13 during the future bear market. We see that we have a lot of titles being traded in terms of volume. Here at the bottom, TerraWolf down -7.60%, again, we'll have to let it correct. First zone of interest around $9.35 or even $10, but I'd like to see it drop much lower. It's still too high for its part. Coinbase, which many of you follow, we're at median RSI support at 45 and $385. Is this the time? I still think it's much too early given what cryptocurrencies themselves could unfold behind. Where it might become interesting to start reloading for later is here around the 0.618 Fibonacci of this entire movement, around $185. We have the 200-week moving average which is well flattened and appeared not so long ago, and this shows that the longevity of this asset is still very young. So we are still dealing with a risky asset. $165, and finally the 0.786 which is around $120. So again, I don't think this asset will lose 90% in the bear market like it did before, we even lost -92%. If we were to return between the 0.618 and the 0.786 Fibonacci, it would be a loss of about 56% from the top. The 200-week moving average is at -62%, and the 0.786 is at -72% to -73%. So you see that again we are somewhat within the lines of what I was telling you for MicroStrategy, which would be around -75%. Also, the last asset to watch, which is retracing its entire initial pump, is Circle. So the publisher, notably of USDC, Circle Internet Group, which was introduced, in any case, here on TradingView, around $64. I don't remember if that was the exact introduction price. I invite you to look that up yourself. We reached $300, we're back to $82. So we're now at a latent decline for this asset of -73%. This one, however, risks falling by -90%. Why? Because it's its first cycle. So each time a company like this is introduced to the stock market, and by the way, it was introduced around June 2025. Unfortunately, they were very certainly introduced on an extremely slippery slope for them. We might even see it below its introduction price of $64. So perhaps start to be interested when it reaches this zone of $64 to $70, and then we can measure what much lower targets could be. So we'd be at -80%. $55 would give -80%. -85% would be $44, and finally -90% would be around $28 to $30. So about -50% well beaten down from the introduction price. This doesn't seem unreasonable for Circle if the crypto market were to decline, because if we're aiming for -50% to -60% for Bitcoin, you can imagine that these companies will at least fall by the same amount, or even a bit more. So, as you will have understood, everything now depends on BTC, which is making macro structure breaks in the short and medium term, not in the very long term, because we remain absolutely bullish long term on Bitcoin. But things are starting to look grim, and as usual, if you want to panic, as the stock market saying goes, it's better to be among the first to panic than the last. As of today, we are at -23% from Bitcoin's absolute top. If it rolls over a bit more to the downside, you now have all the cards in hand, all the objectives in mind to allow you to project yourself for several more years, to project yourself for a DCA during the bear market, telling yourself, "Okay, if the price returns between $50,000, $60,000, $70,000, how do I structure my recharges over time in terms of amount, in terms of percentage? Am I comfortable today with holding Bitcoin around $100,000 which could potentially return to around $50,000?" And from there, it allows you to project yourself serenely, regardless of the scenario that unfolds. As usual, I give you the broad strokes, but it's important to keep in mind that each investor profile will be different, and each story is as well. There are full altcoin profiles, full Bitcoin profiles, short-term, medium-term, very long-term profiles, retirees who invest for 10, 20, 30 years for their children and grandchildren. So I try, as usual, to give you short-to-medium term perspectives while having a tendency to project ourselves onto this very long term, which historically, with data to support it, Cambridge did studies, I believe in 2018, and it's still very relevant in 2025. It's about every 3 years, approximately, when you invest at the wrong time, in quotes, especially in Bitcoin, that you can get a return. And I think that more than ever, this will be relevant for 2025, projecting for 2028-2029, if this 4-year cycle were to still take place. Because the craziest thing, and I'll conclude on this so as not to babble for nothing, is this famous publication from the forum, I think, which said that the top would be October 6th or 7th, and once again, apparently, it will have been the oracle if $125,000-$126,000 was the top of this cycle, which for now, at least for this end of 2025, seems to be the case. I wish you an excellent day despite everything. Don't panic, don't start doing anything and everything. Try to take the weekend to think about how you can anticipate what will happen in the coming months, the coming quarters, to curate your old lines that are absolutely useless to you. There are still too many people with 50 lines in their portfolio, it's absolutely useless. And also have a small cash reserve. If you don't have it yet, it's perhaps because you only intend to invest and be fully invested. And it's also perfectly logical to want to invest like that over several years. If you have already achieved good gains, I often take the example of Bitcoin at $15K, $20K, $30K, we're at $100K today. It's a shame not to have a small cash reserve of 10%, 20%, 30% that will allow you to buy at a good price during a future bear market. As usual, I give you leads, I am not an advisor. As a certain Canadian would say, I'm just a guy in his office in his boxers. I'm trying to give you the broad strokes of what I'm trying to apply for myself, not always very successfully, for about 7 years. And I hope that 2026 will allow us to have opportunities that will allow us to benefit from them until 2030. Have a very good day, have a very good weekend. I don't think I'll be back this weekend unless something truly extraordinary happens on this weekly close. In any case, we'll meet again on Monday with great pleasure, and continue to be prudent. Ciao. Ciao.